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Blazinghand
United States25560 Posts
On January 18 2012 06:09 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: A no-lynch gives us a 0% chance of lynching scum. Angels we can ONLY kill via lynching. I like >0% more than 0%. Instead plz convince ppl of your best read . That way we can win? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
if you are implying that we should be relying on anything other than claims made in the thread i feel it is my duty to remind you that you are playing mafia, and that analysis is forbidden. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25560 Posts
. Help a brotha out | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
but we should all agree before anyone changes their vote. | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
Just because of the vote? That's silly. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On January 18 2012 06:14 Blazinghand wrote: Instead plz convince ppl of your best read . That way we can win? *shrug* Why I think Refallen is a shitty lynch: People willing to vote for him: Dirkzor, Bluelightz listed him as a scummy target, Zephirdd, Layabout, Tyrran pushed him as potential scum. No fucking way this list is clean. Was about the only person to not just want to turbo-lynch me in my absence. As I stated, he is playing very similar to his townplay from Election mafia. He made assumptions about night actions in that game as well(and was basically 100% correct on them too). The only difference is he is being more aggressive, which he publicly stated he was going to do before roles were even released. Aggression is generally a townie trait. As far as I can tell, he is one of only 2 people who could potentially be the demon hunter. If we lynch the demon hunter I think it is GG for town. Why I would like to lynch Dirkzor: Starts off with this post: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 17:46 Dirkzor wrote: Game on! This setup scares the living shit out of me. So many nuances to keep track of. Anyway... I agree that Angels appear to be strongest in the beginning with 1/2 KP. But what haven't been mentioned is that Angels can kill the demon for us aswell. If we lynch Angel of Death and Angelic Acolyte we will have to lynch/Demon hunter the Demons. Since I don't know the Demon hunter or how good that person is, he could just aswell kill 3 town people the first 3 nights which of course would not be very favourable for us. It basicly means we would need to do more correct lynches while having a good demon hunter that don't fuck us over with continously town kills. Demons also have the Twist ability which basicly makes one (1) of their members immune to night actions, rendering the demon hunter to be less useful. What i wanted to point out that even if we get 3 correct Angel lynches (unlikely) the first 3 nights. The demons are equally capable to fuck us over. That is why I think that killing any angel or demon is good. Not one over the other. If we knew which angel or demon, it would be a different matter. Mostly innocent, but the general opinion seemed to be that angels were our primary concern, not demons. Potentially an angel wanting to get our attention elsewhere a bit more. He repeatedly tries to discredit Syllogism. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 21:41 Dirkzor wrote: What the F*** happened? Late switch? Why? Syllo you came out looking REALLY bad after this. Your reason for pushing Erandorr so late is bullshit. We had people on erandorr/risk. I believe something like 4/7. Then you post this: Why switch so late if you are _very_ convinced about risk? Is that not good enough? I understand that you can find some people more scummy then others, but why wait until 1½ hour before deadline to try an switch? Your reasoning here looks okay, but if you had already made up your mind about not pushing him because it was all meta-based why change so late? You even say that the risk case is/was better - this was after his defence. Why would you make chaos on purpose to switch from a guy that you find scummy to a guy you find more scummy? I don't get it. You only post that can be called a reason to switch that late. But at the same time you said risk wasnt saying anything usefull - so i assume you did not like his defence or his posting. Other then that you just pushed people to change: + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 08:35 syllogism wrote: risk.nuke please vote erandorr so we can switch if we want, you have to pm the bot, read the OP for instructions On January 08 2012 08:53 syllogism wrote: Palmar why won't you switch? Will you switch if we can get enough? On January 08 2012 09:05 syllogism wrote: First of all RoL you aren't voting for anyone right now, read the instructions for voting. Pm the bot: to: zbot subject: purgatory body: ##Vote Erandorr And I'll end with this: Bad logic to setup a potential mislynch: On January 09 2012 04:45 Dirkzor wrote: See, all i have is your word for it. But i guess we can lynch him and if he flips town we lynch you... More bad logic: On January 09 2012 20:37 Dirkzor wrote: Actually: ##Vote Cwave Either he is scum with palmar or he is a townie with a bad read (on me). Doesn't like RoL case: On January 13 2012 04:17 Dirkzor wrote: Blazinghand, I think your case is bad. We can agree that RoL have been useless but so have others. The only real argument you have is that he proposed his plan deliberatly to hurt town which I find unlikely. His reasons for not pushing the plan now is actually quite pro-town in my book since it would just hinder other discussion. And he may have different ways of pushing his case then posting the same thing over and over *cough* BH *cough*. Either way, I have written it before and I'll do so again. I think RoL is a bad lynch. I would like to see him scumhunt soon though. But just add WIFOM: On January 14 2012 00:52 Dirkzor wrote: Likes the RoL lynch.Jackal.. Have you forgotten me? I was so used to your devoted attention! Assuming Wiggles was town, and i assume that, it puts more pressure on RoL. That was the last person that Wiggles talked about (and attacking me about). Combine that with a wall-of-text case that is actually not very big in terms of content I see RoL as more scummy then before he started scumhunting. His case is just not good, its just long so it appears to be good/solid. Long is not always better. Wrong. After RoL claimed VT he could later have claimed channeler without it looking suspicious. As he had already claimed VT he could wait for everyone else to claim. The channeler would be missing and he could then claim channeler and most would believe him because no one else claimed channeler. If someone else claimed channeler before him he could counter-claim and town would lynch RoL (and get channeler), but after that we would lycnh the person who claimed channeler as he was lying. Conveniently ignores that the demons still had the conceal option, and that angels would have had time left after the blue claims to pick a target for the AoD kill in order to support his case. Aka, more bad logic.Posts on some of the others incoming. (Although I seriously feel like I am beating my head against a brick wall by trying here) | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
Take a look at Refallen first post specifically, and compare to Dirkzor's. How can you use the first post of a player as part of your argument? | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
Jackal.. Have you forgotten me? I was so used to your devoted attention! Assuming Wiggles was town, and i assume that, it puts more pressure on RoL. That was the last person that Wiggles talked about (and attacking me about). Combine that with a wall-of-text case that is actually not very big in terms of content I see RoL as more scummy then before he started scumhunting. His case is just not good, its just long so it appears to be good/solid. Long is not always better. Is not WIFOM. For something to be WIFOM, you need to create a full circle. Here he makes the assumption that Wiggles is town, and rightfully so(killed by angels, was the first to attack the Demon Palmar). It also shows him changing his mind not immediately on RoL's case, and with a reason(connects MrWiggles' killed-by-angels with his case on RoL). Nah, your case sucks. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
First about 50% of his filter is dedicated to calling Palmar scum. Pretty much clears him of being a demon, but says nothing of him not being an angel. On January 09 2012 11:36 Jackal58 wrote: An interesting assertion to make. It makes more sense for Palmar to protect a teammate than to try to block a blue. I think Palmar sent Syllo to purgatory. Is anybody corrupted? He makes fabulous cases: On January 09 2012 22:25 Jackal58 wrote: This is the guy that needs to go today. He's scum. ##Vote: Dirkzor. He hammers risk: On January 11 2012 23:45 Jackal58 wrote: You are best lynch. But I'm not going to hold my breath. Let's see if there is a reason for voting for somebody nobody else is interested in voting today. ##Vote: risk.nuke. If you flip town risk I am sorry. And now I await everybody telling me how scummy I am for hammering you.  With only these prior mentions regarding him: + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 11:43 Jackal58 wrote: Are you scum too? There should be zero confusion about which of those 2 you would want to lynch if you believe them both to be scum. No offense risk.nuke but you're not scary. Scum Palmar is scary. On January 07 2012 23:26 Jackal58 wrote: And of those who is going to become harder to hang after we start dying? On January 08 2012 09:35 Jackal58 wrote: Since Palmar isn't happening I switched to Erandorr. Between he and risk I'd rather have risk around another day. Erandorr's alignment will be impossible to determine by his activity. I think RoL did vote but he spelled it wrong. Dunno if that matters or not. More great cases: + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2012 00:09 Jackal58 wrote: This is twice. You don't get a 3rd. ##Vote: Bluelightz On January 14 2012 01:21 Jackal58 wrote: I still think Dirkzor is scum. But nobody else wants to agree with me. I thought you may be scum as well until you got sent to Purgatory again and the AoD appeared. You may still be a demon but I'm not leaning that way atm. RoL has made an appearance other than his stupid plan. But it's basically appearing to be a great big OMGUS. I'd like to see what else he has to say about others today. Tyrran I think is just a derpy townie. I haven't played with him before so I'm not sure what to expect from him. Between the 2 I'd lynch RoL first but I think Dirkzor, Bluelights, or HoD are all better options. And I did push and justify my vote on Dirkzor. It wasn't 10,000 words so you ignored it. I think the only reason Bluelights came back was because I put my vote on him. He's scum lynch him. Overall his filter is not particularly enlightening other than "very likely not a demon". By this stage in the game I would expect a veteran to have done a much better exonerating himself of suspicion if he is town. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
All the things about RoL and my change of view on him I feel i've justified by logic and reasoning. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On January 18 2012 06:58 Zephirdd wrote: also Is not WIFOM. For something to be WIFOM, you need to create a full circle. Here he makes the assumption that Wiggles is town, and rightfully so(killed by angels, was the first to attack the Demon Palmar). It also shows him changing his mind not immediately on RoL's case, and with a reason(connects MrWiggles' killed-by-angels with his case on RoL). Nah, your case sucks. They killed wiggles, he was suspicious of RoL, therefore RoL is more likely to be scum is the logic he used. This is most certainly WIFOM. From the mafiascum wiki: Many times analyzing night kills is considered WIFOM, as only the killers can say with certainty why someone died. This is especially true when the kill choices were unexpected. | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
People willing to vote for him: Dirkzor, Bluelightz listed him as a scummy target, Zephirdd, Layabout, Tyrran pushed him as potential scum. No fucking way this list is clean. No shit sherlock, we need demons to lynch angels this game. You know what is common on this list? Nobody here looks Angel to me. And how can you make an assertion about who is the DH, when the DH shot only obvious targets(maybe a bit less on Palmar, but was an excellent shot nevertheless) As far as we know, Jackal is the DH. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
I'm going to bed very soon so a conclusion to this qould be fantastic. Also: Who benefits from a no lynch? Both demon and Angels? or mostly angels? | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=282366&user=57176 And his filter from this game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603&user=57176 Do these seriously look similar to anyone here? | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
On January 18 2012 07:03 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: They killed wiggles, he was suspicious of RoL, therefore RoL is more likely to be scum is the logic he used. This is most certainly WIFOM. From the mafiascum wiki: So you mean that the Angels could've killed Mr wiggles so that it would mean we lynch RoL with that? So, by that logic, RoL was possibly town? Do you realize that if RoL was town, you are scum? He made the simplest possible assumption. The problem would be if he made a more complicated assumption("...but the Angels may have killed him with that in mind") | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
On January 18 2012 07:05 Dirkzor wrote: Your case on Jackal is likely to my own read on him. While I don't see anything that sticks out as scummy, what worry me is that I don't see anything sticking out at all. I'm going to bed very soon so a conclusion to this qould be fantastic. Also: Who benefits from a no lynch? Both demon and Angels? or mostly angels? Angels. Demons would benefit from Sage, DH or Angel lynch, but a no-lynch leave their voting power smaller while leaving Angels untouched, opening space for the (possible) Sage to find a Demon, the DH to snipe a Demon and the Angels to be Angels. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On January 18 2012 07:05 Zephirdd wrote: oh and I forgot No shit sherlock, we need demons to lynch angels this game. You know what is common on this list? Nobody here looks Angel to me. And how can you make an assertion about who is the DH, when the DH shot only obvious targets(maybe a bit less on Palmar, but was an excellent shot nevertheless) As far as we know, Jackal is the DH. Not everyone agreed they were obvious targets. I've been trying to avoid overlapping with the demon-hunter's shots, I haven't done it by not looking for the demon hunter. The odds of Jackal being the demon hunter and not having stabbed dirkzor over cwave or spaackle I would rate at near 0%. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On January 18 2012 07:08 Zephirdd wrote: So you mean that the Angels could've killed Mr wiggles so that it would mean we lynch RoL with that? So, by that logic, RoL was possibly town? Do you realize that if RoL was town, you are scum? He made the simplest possible assumption. The problem would be if he made a more complicated assumption("...but the Angels may have killed him with that in mind") RoL and I both being town is not impossible. It would just mean that Wiggles was neither the channeler nor the sage. He still could have been the seer or vanilla. | ||
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