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Zona], your case feels incredibly forced, to the point I don't think a townie could come up with something like that. What I think is going on is I think Zona knows which one of Rad and Blaz is scum, and is trying to paint the other scum too, if successful, this makes town in a position where they think the chances of them hitting scum is 1/7, while in reality it's 2/7. I already explained back on day 2, that I had no reason to believe they managed to communicate a non-sabotage in the thread, remember that they can't use any secret codes or anything, so any breadcrumbs would have to be quite obvious.
By "forced" I mean that your case reeks of you having figured out the conclusion first and then written the case to reflect that conclusion (instead of reaching the conclusion by evaluating the case).
I still don't think I have a reason to believe they managed to communicate in such a way. I find Zona's direct appeal to me and jackal somewhat strange, especially seeing Jackal has been completely useless this game. I mean, Zona promised to explain why Jackal and I are town, and while correct, all there was to the explanation was the process of elimination based on the case against Rad/Blaz.
Jackal is completely unreadable to me. Last time he was this useless and shitty he was mafia, he has very little opinions on anyone in the game. Of the people that I don't think are scum, he's the one I would probably not send on a mission. There is a chance he may be the scum instead of Zona, and Zona is just being dumb, but there's also the chance Jackal is off somewhere bowling and doesn't really give a shit, and I'm right about Zona. I usually am.
Radfield is the hard one in this setup, the entire game hinges on me getting the read right on him. And I think he's town. This is completely based on meta from other games and how I would expect radfield to behave in a game like this. His posting matches what I'd expect, and his reads and thoughts seem reasonable enough. I'm glad he called Zona's case terrible before I did, means he's not just sheeping my opinions in order to win my trust. In addition, I think between the two, Blazinghand looks far worse.
@Rad, you asked how much time I was puttting in, I'll give you an answer and a question.
1) Less than usual, quite obviously.
2) Do you think you're helping town by giving scum weapons to discredit me?
That's the scummiest thing Rad has done this game, but I think he simply may not have thought through before asking that, so maybe it's just a stupid question.
The goal for today, after nayvoting Blaz's team for obvious reasons is to figure out the rest of this game.
This is what I assume is happening this game:
1 spy:
Palmar
Radfield
Blazinghand
1 spy:
Palmar
VisceraEyes
Greymist
Toad
1: spy
Zona
Jackal
Truthbringer
The reason for me assuming this is the case is as I've explained I don't think rad and blaz are both spies, and based on how scummy the last group of people is, (both jackal and zona are not bad scum candidates), it's only likely that there is only one person on each mission.
Obviously it also adds up with there being one sabotage every day.
In my opinion it should be pretty clear that by virtue on being on neither mission, and actually looking kinda good compared to the others, Truthbringer should be on today's team. I see no reason to risk putting either Jackal or Zona on the team, since neither of them gives a strong town feeling, even if it's certain that only one of them is scum (remember, we know there can at most be 1 spy in those 3 people, due to there being 2 different spies on the first 2 days).
In addition, as explained I have a scum read on Blaz, and a town read on Rad. which makes it logical to add Radfield to the team.
The big question is which one of Grey/VE/Toad we include on the team. I initially had the strongest town read on VE, but his posting level has dropped so much, at this point I'd expect town VE to be kicking and screaming, probably for my head, but that's beside the issue. He's suspiciously quiet. I was quite sure Toad was the scummer, but he seems to be posting a ton of shit that kinda-makes-sense-ish. However I know he can bullshit a lot as scum (see XLVIII), so I'm not sure. Greymist, I'm just gonna demand you post reasons why you're not scum, you dit it steamship, because well, you were scum. Time to shine again.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Although I agree with you, Palmar, that Zona is scummy, I don't think there's an easy way to justify radfield picking me for the team day 1 given that I made this post:
On January 03 2012 07:56 Blazinghand wrote:Radfield, I don't believe your "town" read on me on day1 was legitimate. I think everyone thought i was mafia day 1 after I made this post: Show nested quote +On December 26 2011 17:03 Blazinghand wrote:
Team: Radfield (yourself, who is confirmed town to you), plus Zona (for example), plus someone who gives off a solid town read like, say, Blazinghand. If the mission fails, you can reasonably say "well I think this was Zona" (though others will not be able to do so). The beauty of this though is, assuming you're right about the "1 mafia among Zona/Palm/Rad", If your mission succeeds, you've pinned down a mafia member! (WIFOM alert: Mafia, knowing this, might intentionally not sabotage, etc).
A post like this which shared spy information is very scummy, and several people pointed this out, which is why people were suspicious of both Zona and myself who made posts like this on day 1. It's why Zona didn't even bother making a team because people were probably gonna mass nayvote it anyways. In any case, I didn't like that you chose me day 1. Looking back on it, I think you were setting me up to be a "fall guy". It could be you just didn't think that was that big of a slip-up. That being said, a couple of other things (the unnecessary discussion of the 1/3 1/3 1/3 possibility, the delayed justification, whether you meant it or not) also compound that suspicion.
Like, do Radfield's suspicious actions d1 strike you as normal and cautious, as Rad would normally play? Or do they strike you as Rad setting up a fall guy (myself)?
Or do they strike you as "you are palmar, radfield's scumbuddy?"
That being said, you still have some town cred-- having someone besides myself calling Zona out is great but now I wonder if there's some serious bus craziness going on or if one of you is actually not scum
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Oh I just realized I forgot to vote in our votingthread. As mentioned earlier BH's team is a nay for me because he suggested VE.
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Team Rejected!
A team consisting of Blazinghand, Toadesstern, GreYMisT and VisceraEyes has been rejected for this mission!
Final vote count:
Yays: Blazinghand
Nays: GreYMisT TruthBringer Radfield Toadesstern Palmar
The new leader is Jackal58 whose team is: None
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Jackal58, Zona, Toadesstern, GreYMist.
I have no clue how the hell you guys can determine that somebody is a spy by wtf they post.
Sorry if I've been less than active but this game makes no fucking sense to me.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I thought I posted this last night, but upon opening my computer I see I got a 'bad request'. Here it is:
Seriously Blazinghand? You're sending yourself, plus 3 of the 4 players from last nights mission? That honestly makes zero sense.
You're basically stating that you are sure Palmar is scum, since you are sending the other three players from Night 2. Yet you have been stating all game that you are pretty sure I am the scum from Night 1. So now your stating that somehow Me and Palmar are BOTH scum, and we worked it out enough to only have 1 of us sabotage night 1.
Your entire thought process makes zero sense. Honestly, the idea that a townie would propose a team with Greymist, VE and Toad on it for day 3 is ludicrous.
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To answer some questions.
Why do I think toad is scum? First, as jackal points out above me it is hard to determine if someone is a spy by wtf they post. Yet toad, on the first day, before the mission has even failed, nay votes the team saying that blazinghand is suspicious. At that point in the game Blazinghand's participation level had been very similar to toad's participation level, anything BH could be guilty of, so too could toad. Except toad's contributions are generally less sincere, they are to me more, "look, I'm participating" rather than an effort to help the town make the best decision. His posts seemed to be primarily picking apart BH's arguments and then doing some math for us.
Another strike against toad is related to the math. After the second mission fails he jumps to the conclusion that Palmar is the reason the mission failed both nights. When it is actually more likely that there was 1 distinct spy on each mission. (With 6 players, it is more likely that you have grabbed 2 spies and 4 townies, rather than 1 spy and 5 townies.) With all the math toad did earlier, I thought that was a bad oversight.
Then, I see the team that fails, Palmar, toad, VE, and greymist. Palmar and VE have been consistently giving me townreads. Greymist has been essentially giving me a townread, a little bit of a bumpy ride with him, but ultimately he still seems town to me. Which leaves me with toad. He hasn't been over the top scummy, but he has been scummy enough that when 1 of those 4 have to be a spy, I am very comfortable concluding it is toad.
Another question for me, was my ideal team. If I can include myself, me, Palmar, VE, and greymist. If I can't, Palmar, VE, greymist, and Radfield.
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On January 03 2012 23:36 TruthBringer wrote:
To answer some questions.
Why do I think toad is scum? First, as jackal points out above me it is hard to determine if someone is a spy by wtf they post. Yet toad, on the first day, before the mission has even failed, nay votes the team saying that blazinghand is suspicious. At that point in the game Blazinghand's participation level had been very similar to toad's participation level, anything BH could be guilty of, so too could toad. Except toad's contributions are generally less sincere, they are to me more, "look, I'm participating" rather than an effort to help the town make the best decision. His posts seemed to be primarily picking apart BH's arguments and then doing some math for us.
Another strike against toad is related to the math. After the second mission fails he jumps to the conclusion that Palmar is the reason the mission failed both nights. When it is actually more likely that there was 1 distinct spy on each mission. (With 6 players, it is more likely that you have grabbed 2 spies and 4 townies, rather than 1 spy and 5 townies.) With all the math toad did earlier, I thought that was a bad oversight.
Then, I see the team that fails, Palmar, toad, VE, and greymist. Palmar and VE have been consistently giving me townreads. Greymist has been essentially giving me a townread, a little bit of a bumpy ride with him, but ultimately he still seems town to me. Which leaves me with toad. He hasn't been over the top scummy, but he has been scummy enough that when 1 of those 4 have to be a spy, I am very comfortable concluding it is toad.
Another question for me, was my ideal team. If I can include myself, me, Palmar, VE, and greymist. If I can't, Palmar, VE, greymist, and Radfield.
Your first paragraph is essentially the reason BH already called me out ( I think it was BH, not sure right now). You're basicly saying that nayvoting something d1 is a bad thing. I don't see how that's a bad thing at all. You were suspicious because of your instant-yay vote before a team was suggested and BH was suspicious for contradicting himself. At least I thought so, don't know about the rest. Therefor I nay-voted the team because again, that's all I had at this point in time.
I really don't like the style you're posting because it sounds a lot like "well since we don't see flips we will never know about people for sure, therefor we don't need to try and analayze people by what they're posting and should only go by math". I already told BH that that's not going to work.
Your 2nd paragraph needs explanation. I don't see how 2 different spies are more reasonable than just one spy. I don't see this point at all and I think it's the other way around.
However I do agree with your 3rd paragraph somewhat. Palmar has given me townreads as well and if it wasn't for two consecutive fails I'd probably still be thinking he's a townie. Greymist is still a strong townread for me and VE only was on d1. After d1 he did nothing that looks like a townie so for me it's either Palmar who looks pretty town but was on 2 failed missions or it's VE who looked town d1 but other than that has done nothing at all.
Summary:
I still think VE is scum
I still think you're behaving unreasonable and therefor think you're scum
I still get townreads from palmar but think it's too dangerous to suggest him. That's the reason I think he's scum but I could be wrong here. I don't think I'm wrong about VE or truth however.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 04 2012 00:07 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2012 23:36 TruthBringer wrote:
To answer some questions.
Why do I think toad is scum? First, as jackal points out above me it is hard to determine if someone is a spy by wtf they post. Yet toad, on the first day, before the mission has even failed, nay votes the team saying that blazinghand is suspicious. At that point in the game Blazinghand's participation level had been very similar to toad's participation level, anything BH could be guilty of, so too could toad. Except toad's contributions are generally less sincere, they are to me more, "look, I'm participating" rather than an effort to help the town make the best decision. His posts seemed to be primarily picking apart BH's arguments and then doing some math for us.
Another strike against toad is related to the math. After the second mission fails he jumps to the conclusion that Palmar is the reason the mission failed both nights. When it is actually more likely that there was 1 distinct spy on each mission. (With 6 players, it is more likely that you have grabbed 2 spies and 4 townies, rather than 1 spy and 5 townies.) With all the math toad did earlier, I thought that was a bad oversight.
Then, I see the team that fails, Palmar, toad, VE, and greymist. Palmar and VE have been consistently giving me townreads. Greymist has been essentially giving me a townread, a little bit of a bumpy ride with him, but ultimately he still seems town to me. Which leaves me with toad. He hasn't been over the top scummy, but he has been scummy enough that when 1 of those 4 have to be a spy, I am very comfortable concluding it is toad.
Another question for me, was my ideal team. If I can include myself, me, Palmar, VE, and greymist. If I can't, Palmar, VE, greymist, and Radfield. Your first paragraph is essentially the reason BH already called me out ( I think it was BH, not sure right now). You're basicly saying that nayvoting something d1 is a bad thing. I don't see how that's a bad thing at all. You were suspicious because of your instant-yay vote before a team was suggested and BH was suspicious for contradicting himself. At least I thought so, don't know about the rest. Therefor I nay-voted the team because again, that's all I had at this point in time. I really don't like the style you're posting because it sounds a lot like "well since we don't see flips we will never know about people for sure, therefor we don't need to try and analayze people by what they're posting and should only go by math". I already told BH that that's not going to work.
I don't know what you're talking about, but off hand I'd say "you can't rely on reads, only math" is not something I'd say, given that my chief argument for myself being town is "I voted nay on the d1 team due to a read"
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On January 03 2012 22:46 Jackal58 wrote:
Jackal58, Zona, Toadesstern, GreYMist.
I have no clue how the hell you guys can determine that somebody is a spy by wtf they post.
Sorry if I've been less than active but this game makes no fucking sense to me.
I'm assuming you think the people you have not included on your team are people you have less than
Optimal reads on. If that is the case why zona and not say palmar or rad? Who do you think are the spies this game? You say that we can't determine spies by what they post, but this is not much different from true mafia except that no one dies and scum can't communicate. If anything because scum can't talk to each other outside the thread it should be easier to find them based on their interactions.
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On January 04 2012 01:28 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2012 22:46 Jackal58 wrote:
Jackal58, Zona, Toadesstern, GreYMist.
I have no clue how the hell you guys can determine that somebody is a spy by wtf they post.
Sorry if I've been less than active but this game makes no fucking sense to me. I'm assuming you think the people you have not included on your team are people you have less than Optimal reads on. If that is the case why zona and not say palmar or rad? Who do you think are the spies this game? You say that we can't determine spies by what they post, but this is not much different from true mafia except that no one dies and scum can't communicate. If anything because scum can't talk to each other outside the thread it should be easier to find them based on their interactions.
I'm picking people I see as town. As much as I can see in this setup. I'd say one of either Palmar or Rad are spies. I don't really expect any team I propose to be accepted anyways.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 04 2012 01:37 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 01:28 GreYMisT wrote:On January 03 2012 22:46 Jackal58 wrote:
Jackal58, Zona, Toadesstern, GreYMist.
I have no clue how the hell you guys can determine that somebody is a spy by wtf they post.
Sorry if I've been less than active but this game makes no fucking sense to me. I'm assuming you think the people you have not included on your team are people you have less than Optimal reads on. If that is the case why zona and not say palmar or rad? Who do you think are the spies this game? You say that we can't determine spies by what they post, but this is not much different from true mafia except that no one dies and scum can't communicate. If anything because scum can't talk to each other outside the thread it should be easier to find them based on their interactions. I'm picking people I see as town. As much as I can see in this setup. I'd say one of either Palmar or Rad are spies. I don't really expect any team I propose to be accepted anyways.
If you think one of either Palmar or Rad are spies, do you think I too am a spy and it was a 2-spy n1?
Also, don't say "I don't really expect any team I propose to be accepted anyways" because even though *I* didn't expect my team to be accepted I did my best to make good reads and defend it, as should you. Proposing and voting on teams is good for us.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Does that mean you think Blazinghand is town Jackal?
@Rad, you asked how much time I was puttting in, I'll give you an answer and a question.
1) Less than usual, quite obviously.
2) Do you think you're helping town by giving scum weapons to discredit me?
That's the scummiest thing Rad has done this game, but I think he simply may not have thought through before asking that, so maybe it's just a stupid question.
Palmar, I asked this more to find out how much time you were planning on putting into this game in the future. In election mafia, I put way way less time into the game than I normally do, and my reads were way off in the late-game. Someone should have asked me that question, and would then have known to give my opinion less weight. It seems like a very pertinent question to ask a solid player if they have the time or not to make proper reads.
I'm not sure how that question was discrediting you. You either have the time or you don't, and if you don't then I'm going to pursue other avenues. If you do have the time then lets break this down, chat, and publicly scum hunt.
Independent of other players, what gives you your townread on truthbringer?
Once Jackals team gets rejected(which it surely will), you are up. I think you should not officially put forward a team until we have a chance to talk about it. Make your prelim suggestion here, and lets modify if we need to to get the votes to pass it. I think you are probably town, you think I am probably town, so lets put a team together.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 04 2012 02:15 Radfield wrote:
Does that mean you think Blazinghand is town Jackal?
Jackal is totes scummy but I'd just like to point out that thinking i'm town doesn't make you scum ._.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Of course not. I'm just trying to get some clear statements from Jackal regarding your alignment.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Alright, fair enough. I too would like to know what Jackal thinks. I'm highly suspicious of him as well, though I don't think his day2 hammer makes him any more suspicious than his day1 hammer. His defeatist attitude and non-defending of himself is discouraging, though.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Also, Rad, looking back on it, what made you pick me Day 1? Was it random or, given that you had a town read on me, what motivated that?
On December 27 2011 10:31 Radfield wrote:
Here is my reasoning.
Palmar's only post, while brief, is an important piece of advice and not one I had even considered.
Blazinghand seems townish and willing to reason out and his posting is sound.
Radfield, I don't believe your "town" read on me on day1 was legitimate. I think everyone thought i was mafia day 1 after I made this post:
On December 26 2011 17:03 Blazinghand wrote:
Team: Radfield (yourself, who is confirmed town to you), plus Zona (for example), plus someone who gives off a solid town read like, say, Blazinghand. If the mission fails, you can reasonably say "well I think this was Zona" (though others will not be able to do so). The beauty of this though is, assuming you're right about the "1 mafia among Zona/Palm/Rad", If your mission succeeds, you've pinned down a mafia member! (WIFOM alert: Mafia, knowing this, might intentionally not sabotage, etc).
A post like this which shared spy information is very scummy, and several people pointed this out, which is why people were suspicious of both Zona and myself who made posts like this on day 1. It's why Zona didn't even bother making a team because people were probably gonna mass nayvote it anyways.
In any case, I didn't like that you chose me day 1. Looking back on it, I think you were setting me up to be a "fall guy".
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On January 04 2012 03:31 Radfield wrote:
Of course not. I'm just trying to get some clear statements from Jackal regarding your alignment.
I think BH is scum. I think there is a very high order of probability that either you or Palmar are as well.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 04 2012 05:11 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 03:31 Radfield wrote:
Of course not. I'm just trying to get some clear statements from Jackal regarding your alignment. I think BH is scum. I think there is a very high order of probability that either you or Palmar are as well.
So you think there were 2 scum N1, one of which was me? Would you say you agree with Zona's analysis of "Blazinghand and Radfield are in cahoots"?
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Actually, I guess the real question is, Jackal, If you think me and one of Palm/Rad is scum, do you have a solid read for a 3rd scum player? Is there an additional scummy player who makes you doubt that one of Palm/Rad is scum, as well, or are you pretty sold on that?
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EPT
