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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Zona, I brushed off your case because it IS ridiculous. However, I will respond to it here in full.
What is the worse possible scenario for mafia Day 1? All three spies on the mission of course. The second worse scenario would be to have 2 spies. The reason for this is that having 2 sabotages on a mission with only 3 players basically loses the game for the spies. Therefore the idea that I, as a spy and team leader, would go out and select another spy is ridiculous. Whatever you may think of my play, it is not stupid. As a team leader there is no need for me to go through breadcrumbing and other risky public posting in order to make that first mission a failure. It simply makes no sense.
When I picked my team, I DID NOT do it to follow Blazinghand's metrics. In fact, until you pointed it out I had not realized that my team followed his metrics almost exactly. I felt Blazinghand was contributing in his own way, and I felt Palmar to be town based on his no spy talk post.
You're argument against me is that it is "damning" that I accepted blazinghands poor logic, but nowhere did I do that. I chose a team based on who i thought was town at the time. No more, no less. I can disagree with someone and point out flaws in logic while still having a town read on that person.
To sum up:
He does NOT acknowledge that he is following precisely what Blazinghand has proposed. And worse, I expect Radfield to realize that Blazinghand's proposal does NOT maximize the chances of success given the assumptions, which both of them seem to accept without questioning.
I did not realize I was following blazinghands suggestions.
I did not accept that my initial reasoning(1 mafia in each skill group) was correct. In fact I would bet 10:1 that it is incorrect, but was the only thing I had to go on at the beginning of the game.
I most certainly did not agree with blazinghands logic. This should be obvious given that I directly and clearly stated why and how it was flawed.
I chose my team based on town reads, that is all. Not on my initial speculation, not on blazinghands faulty logic.
Now, I have responded, and I urge you if you are town to look at more realistic scenarios. Right now you are obfuscating the thread, and distracting us from proper scum hunting.
I want you to now look at my filter with an open mind, ignoring Day 1 interaction with blazinghand (because I'm sure you will admit you have made up your mind there), and decide whether I am town or not based on my demeaner and contributions. You stated early on you felt my posting was 'artificial', do you still feel that way? Assuming I am scum, which you believe, how does my other posting stack up with that theory? Do you see scummy objectives in my posting?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
VE does not get to go on another mission until he gets in here and contributes.
Palmar, how much time have you put into this game the last 2 days(not an accusation, just a question). How much time are you willing to put in in the next few days? Also, can you lay out why you think truthbringer is town?
Jackal, considering you were 6th in line or so, why when I asked you if you had a prepared team did you answer yes? In my mind it seems strange that you would have a ready made team when you are almost certainly not going to be the team leader on that day. Who is your ideal team today?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Additionally Palmar, what are your reasons for thinking VE is town?
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On January 01 2012 23:19 Toadesstern wrote:
ok zona I think there is literally only one possible team we're both agreeing on.
I won't vote yay on a team that has palmar, truth or VE suggested because that's an instant lose, you won't agree on a team that got BH or Rad suggested.
That's 5 people we don't like and leaves us with 4 people:
Grey, Jackal, Zona, Toad. Since all 4 of them are town I would also agree to that if jackal or zona are going to suggest something like that. However I still hope that we get 4 more townies to yay-vote my team to denie Palmar and VE their chance to get 2 stupid townies on their team but just in case that's not going to happen I'm already telling you that I'm pretty much going to nay-vote everything else.
What makes you say the bolded?
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On January 02 2012 01:47 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2012 23:19 Toadesstern wrote:
ok zona I think there is literally only one possible team we're both agreeing on.
I won't vote yay on a team that has palmar, truth or VE suggested because that's an instant lose, you won't agree on a team that got BH or Rad suggested.
That's 5 people we don't like and leaves us with 4 people:
Grey, Jackal, Zona, Toad. Since all 4 of them are town I would also agree to that if jackal or zona are going to suggest something like that. However I still hope that we get 4 more townies to yay-vote my team to denie Palmar and VE their chance to get 2 stupid townies on their team but just in case that's not going to happen I'm already telling you that I'm pretty much going to nay-vote everything else. What makes you say the bolded?
there're 9 players in this game. I am not going to vote for 3 of them, zona is not going to vote for two of them
=> 9 - (3+2) = 4 = greymist, Jackal, Zona, Toad left
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On January 02 2012 00:55 Radfield wrote:Zona, I brushed off your case because it IS ridiculous. However, I will respond to it here in full. What is the worse possible scenario for mafia Day 1? All three spies on the mission of course. The second worse scenario would be to have 2 spies. The reason for this is that having 2 sabotages on a mission with only 3 players basically loses the game for the spies. Therefore the idea that I, as a spy and team leader, would go out and select another spy is ridiculous. Whatever you may think of my play, it is not stupid. As a team leader there is no need for me to go through breadcrumbing and other risky public posting in order to make that first mission a failure. It simply makes no sense. When I picked my team, I DID NOT do it to follow Blazinghand's metrics. In fact, until you pointed it out I had not realized that my team followed his metrics almost exactly. I felt Blazinghand was contributing in his own way, and I felt Palmar to be town based on his no spy talk post. You're argument against me is that it is "damning" that I accepted blazinghands poor logic, but nowhere did I do that. I chose a team based on who i thought was town at the time. No more, no less. I can disagree with someone and point out flaws in logic while still having a town read on that person. To sum up: Show nested quote +
He does NOT acknowledge that he is following precisely what Blazinghand has proposed. And worse, I expect Radfield to realize that Blazinghand's proposal does NOT maximize the chances of success given the assumptions, which both of them seem to accept without questioning.
I did not realize I was following blazinghands suggestions. I did not accept that my initial reasoning(1 mafia in each skill group) was correct. In fact I would bet 10:1 that it is incorrect, but was the only thing I had to go on at the beginning of the game. I most certainly did not agree with blazinghands logic. This should be obvious given that I directly and clearly stated why and how it was flawed. I chose my team based on town reads, that is all. Not on my initial speculation, not on blazinghands faulty logic. Now, I have responded, and I urge you if you are town to look at more realistic scenarios. Right now you are obfuscating the thread, and distracting us from proper scum hunting. I want you to now look at my filter with an open mind, ignoring Day 1 interaction with blazinghand (because I'm sure you will admit you have made up your mind there), and decide whether I am town or not based on my demeaner and contributions. You stated early on you felt my posting was 'artificial', do you still feel that way? Assuming I am scum, which you believe, how does my other posting stack up with that theory? Do you see scummy objectives in my posting?
You know that spies can choose to sabatoge or not right? Conceivably if there were 3 spies on day 1, only 1 would need to sabatoge and the others could send in a no sabatoge request.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Yeam with rad = nay vote from me
Happy new years
Brb hangovr
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On January 01 2012 21:58 Palmar wrote:
greymist/toad is one
Blazinghand is one
Zona/Jackal is one
That leaves our mission team for today as me/you/truth/ve.
This is as it should be. My guess for scum is Toad/Blazinghand/Jackal.
Therefor a team would include anyone that is not one of those three and my vote will reflect that.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Actually I'm unvoting my nay; it's possible that Palmar is the true villain here. That being said, I'm also suspicious of Zona and i'm definitely not 100% on Rad. I'm feeling substantially better now and will be reading the thread, addressing queries, and making various accusations presently.
Also VE what makes you think Palmar is a bro and not a spy
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If you are sure rad is a spy, then why on earth would you un-nay vote a team with him on it? has your opinion been changed somehow?
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On January 02 2012 08:19 Blazinghand wrote:
Actually I'm unvoting my nay; it's possible that Palmar is the true villain here.
Oh hey look its a post by blazinghand that's nto being read let me translate for you
"since palmar was on both teams, i admit there's a possibility that he sabotaged n1 and I was wrong about radfield-- that being said, i'm not ready to yay-vote this team"
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On January 01 2012 22:23 Toadesstern wrote:
finally, that's all I need, thx palmar :p
Out of nowhere you 3 guys (Palmar, Truth, VE) are comming and telling people I'm a spy. Yet noone told me why you think so. Not a single word. This is you three sticking together because I said I'm not going to include palmar again and said I'm going to suggest myself + rad + greymist + a 4th guy while mentioning that I don't like VE's attitude anymore.
Those 3 are our spies, all three are suspiciou for a reason and completly out of the blue they're sticking together like that? Just keep dodging them and we win. Guess I was wrong on BH afterall.
##Team: Toadesstern, Radfield, GreYMisT, Zona
Swapped out Palmar for obvious reasons
Swapped out VE for obvious reasons and those 4 are town.
Zona because even if you don't believe I'm right with truth and VE and you only think that we should not give palmar a chance Zona looks perfectly nice.
Greymist still is my 2nd strongest townread after rad now that palmar was on both failed missions.
I'll be downvoting this team as well.
Toad's reasoning that VE, Truth, and Palmar are the spies is a pretty big leap, and essentially an OMGUS. Remember, If both VE and palmar are the spies, that means that one of them would have had to choose to not sabatoge on day2, which is very risky. In addition, remember that Truth proposed his team with both Palmar and VE on it. Do you really believe that he would propose a team that contained the entire scumteam on day2?
To reiterate, I will be nay-voting because your logic for choosing this team is based on the thought that the above 3 players are scum, something I simply can't see.
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On January 02 2012 01:06 Radfield wrote:
VE does not get to go on another mission until he gets in here and contributes.
Palmar, how much time have you put into this game the last 2 days(not an accusation, just a question). How much time are you willing to put in in the next few days? Also, can you lay out why you think truthbringer is town?
Jackal, considering you were 6th in line or so, why when I asked you if you had a prepared team did you answer yes? In my mind it seems strange that you would have a ready made team when you are almost certainly not going to be the team leader on that day. Who is your ideal team today?
My team at the time was put forth to see if anybody tried to force that team choice to me.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On January 02 2012 04:13 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2012 00:55 Radfield wrote:Zona, I brushed off your case because it IS ridiculous. However, I will respond to it here in full. What is the worse possible scenario for mafia Day 1? All three spies on the mission of course. The second worse scenario would be to have 2 spies. The reason for this is that having 2 sabotages on a mission with only 3 players basically loses the game for the spies. Therefore the idea that I, as a spy and team leader, would go out and select another spy is ridiculous. Whatever you may think of my play, it is not stupid. As a team leader there is no need for me to go through breadcrumbing and other risky public posting in order to make that first mission a failure. It simply makes no sense. When I picked my team, I DID NOT do it to follow Blazinghand's metrics. In fact, until you pointed it out I had not realized that my team followed his metrics almost exactly. I felt Blazinghand was contributing in his own way, and I felt Palmar to be town based on his no spy talk post. You're argument against me is that it is "damning" that I accepted blazinghands poor logic, but nowhere did I do that. I chose a team based on who i thought was town at the time. No more, no less. I can disagree with someone and point out flaws in logic while still having a town read on that person. To sum up:
He does NOT acknowledge that he is following precisely what Blazinghand has proposed. And worse, I expect Radfield to realize that Blazinghand's proposal does NOT maximize the chances of success given the assumptions, which both of them seem to accept without questioning.
I did not realize I was following blazinghands suggestions. I did not accept that my initial reasoning(1 mafia in each skill group) was correct. In fact I would bet 10:1 that it is incorrect, but was the only thing I had to go on at the beginning of the game. I most certainly did not agree with blazinghands logic. This should be obvious given that I directly and clearly stated why and how it was flawed. I chose my team based on town reads, that is all. Not on my initial speculation, not on blazinghands faulty logic. Now, I have responded, and I urge you if you are town to look at more realistic scenarios. Right now you are obfuscating the thread, and distracting us from proper scum hunting. I want you to now look at my filter with an open mind, ignoring Day 1 interaction with blazinghand (because I'm sure you will admit you have made up your mind there), and decide whether I am town or not based on my demeaner and contributions. You stated early on you felt my posting was 'artificial', do you still feel that way? Assuming I am scum, which you believe, how does my other posting stack up with that theory? Do you see scummy objectives in my posting? You know that spies can choose to sabatoge or not right? Conceivably if there were 3 spies on day 1, only 1 would need to sabatoge and the others could send in a no sabatoge request.
Of course, but that's extremely risky. If two players decide to sabotage, they are basically done because none of those three players are ever going on a mission again.
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radfield you might want to nay-vote my team to give us more time to set up the next (and probably the next after that) team.
Right now I've got 4 nays and there's still a mafia voter out so it's not going to happen but they're stalling this whole shit.
You guys will probably nayvote BH's-Team as well. Next in order would be jackal followed by palmar and VE...
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
In the event of 1 spy on the d1 team:
33% chance of Blazinghand
33% chance of Palmar
33% chance of Radfield
What are (randomly) the odds of 1 spy on d1 team?
there's a 1/3rd chance for the first guy to be a spy, right? so assuming that, for the other two not to be spy, there is a 3/4ths chance to not pick the 2/8 ppl who are spies, then a 5/7ths chance not to pick the 2/7 people who are spies, meaning there is a 1/3*3/4*5/7 = 0.1786 of the first guy being a spy
"but wait blazinghand" you say "what if the first guy is town, then the second guy is spy?
well don't worry man, i can help you with that. Check this:
the odds of the first guy being town is 2/3rds, right? well ok if the second guy is a spy there's a 3/8ths chance of getting him as spy, then if the third guy is a town, there's a 5/7ths chance of him being town... which comes out to 2/3 * 3/8 * 5/7 = 0.1786 of the second guy being a spy
"oh shoot blazinghand" you say "how does that work?"
well, we're just multiplying probabilities, so the order doesn't matter, right? The one thing we can determine for sure is that it should be the same probability of a single person on that team being a spy. That makes sense, yes?
Adding these three probabilities together, the probabilities come out to 53% chance of exactly 1 spy on N1 team! That still leaves a lot of room for the possibility of 2 spies N1.
What are the odds of 2 spies on the d1 team?
The odds of there being 2 spies means that after there has been picked a spy (1/3rd chance) there is another spy pick, either immediately (1/4 chance), and then the third spy ISN'T picked (6/7) chance or there is a town pick then a spy pick (the other 3/4 of the time, there is a 2/7 chance of a second spy). (1/3) * (2/8) * (6/7) = 0.0714, and with three combinatorial routes, this leaves us with a 21% chance of 2 spies on D1.
Well, what about the remaining 26% chance?
There is a small but non-zero chance that there were no spies D1 (which wasn't the case, but for completeness sake) and the odds of that would be 2/3rd * 5/8 * 4/7 (order irrelevant) which gives us a 23% chance. There's also a very small chance that the mission actually contained 3 spies, which would be a 1/3rd * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1.5% chance. Very small.
Now you're probably thinking "Wait why would there be 3 spies N1, Blazinghand? that sounds horribly unlikely and sub-optimal for the spies, doesn't it?"
Why yes, reader, that DOES?
See, the thing a raw probability calculation like this leaves out is that in every situation, there's a chance that the spy is Radfield, rather than Blazinghand or Palmar. See, if Blazinghand or Palmar is the spy, that has no impact on whether the other dude (Blazinghand or Palmar) is the spy. However, if Radfield is the spy, he's the dude who put together the team. He could easily chose to include 1, 2, 3, or 0 spies regardless of probability.
This makes things much more interesting.
Now imagine you're Radfield. This means you are a spy and are totally devious and smart etc etc. So you lucked into a d1 captainship, and you get the feeling people are gonna sheep all over you. You posted a question and some people have made some vaguely scummy d1 posts (Zona, Blazinghand both made posts prior to Greymist's warning about posting anything that could be used as spy meta). What's an optimal strategy?
Well, as Radfield, you'd pick your scumbuddy Palmar, who has been judiciously silent, and Blazinghand. Blazinghand, being the mad nerd baller that he is, will nayvote the team, looking even scummier, but luckily the (now probably not) scum Jackal comes in and hammers the vote.
Now, you get into a big long argument with Blazinghand and Palmar sort of chills. Townies, operating under the assumption that there was 1 spy N1 (when really there were two-- you sabotaged and palmar did nothing, so it looked like there was only 1 spy), are not going to select an "only new dudes" 4-man team. They don't want to select Blazinghand, because you've made a case against him. And, despite (or because of) your best efforts, Blazinghand has made a case of sorts against you.
Naturally, the pick Palmar. You wait until a team of 3 townies plus Palmar gets suggested, and of course it passes-- nobody wants a team with Blazinghand on it, and you are vaguely suspicious to some.
Palmar sabotages, and now things are looking scary. People immediately assume it's not Palmar, even though he's the common article between the two missions. Some people are like "Well radfield isn't confirmed town any more" and some people are suspicious of Palmar, but Blazinghand is still on everyone's scum list...
and then your Third man swoops in, Zona, who busts out this big "Blazinghand and Rad are working together" theory and it doesn't really make sense but people buy it because people will buy things when they're desperate. Zona took a hit earlier during the "is this a scum strat being said" deal, but things start to make sense. Radfield/Blazinghand/Zona? could be. Radfield/Blazinghand/someone else? maybe.
But these people aren't paying attention to the facts and the facts are that Radfield is scummy and the ONLY REASON HE WOULD BRING ME D1 when I looked scummy would be to entrap me as he has! it's an elaborate plot
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Actually greymist your reasoning to nay-vote my team is wrong. I did not put this team up because of those 3 spies we have. I put this team up because they still are the strongest town reads we got so far. The team I told Zona would be a team that's suggested because of those 3 spies.
Just ask yourself a couple questions:
Do you think Radfield is a spy?
Do you think we should send palmar on a mission after 2 consecutive failures?
Do you think Zona is a spy when you're not willing to send Palmar (given you answered #2 with no)?
Do you think I am a spy?
If you're answering a single (or multiple) questions with no, fine that's a prefectly fine reason to nay-vote. However if you answered everything with yes I want your vote. I did not put this team up because of truth+palmar+VE. I suggested this team because I am not willing to suggest palmar a third time (you already agreed to that) and at the same time I still think rad+Grey are good townreads for everyone (apperently except zona...). That's the reason I suggested the team. I'm trying to make this as easy as it can get for you guys and those people on my team all have decent towncred. Yet we have mass-nay's. Why do you think it's like that?
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
To be fair I un-nay-voted your team Toad though that might actually lose you town cred ._.
In any case, I'm beginning to think Zona is a spy, in cahoots with an elaborate Rad/Palm scheme. it's kind of a long shot but it makes sense given what's happened so far.
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