TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 165

On March 26 2011 21:36 TranceStorm wrote:
I'm /in. I haven't played a mafia game in a while, but I've been playing on other sites and what not, so I'm definitely interested.

On April 10 2011 19:16 TranceStorm wrote:

There is always the possibility that he is a mafia pretending to be an assassin in order to win himself an elected position on the merits of the arguments he listed earlier. But I'm not particularly inclined to this view because as of right now because that strategy would be exceedingly risky at the very beginning of the game.

If we were to elect Protactinium, at the very least, we would make sure that a clear non-mafia were elected for the time being. However, I am concerned about his commitment to being pro-town if elected. From his own admission, he says that:

Of course, what should happen if he were to be elected, and both bodyguards were to die? The chances are slim of course, but the fact is that he could switch sides at critical moments (i.e. when he is one of the deciding votes between the mafia and town). In the early game, Protactinium would definitely be town-sided, but resulting changes to the circumstances of the game could radically change his allegiances. Oh and lastly, I don't think he would be able to 'ally with mafia' like he claims if he weren't elected since another assassin would take him out to further their own chances at victory.

Like other people of reiterated, I would recommend that the pardoner would be the best position for Protactinium on the basis that an assassin would have little reason to ever pardon someone, but at the same time, we have a confirmed non-mafia who is able to give good analysis of player behavior and who will survive for the later stages of the game.

On April 11 2011 05:22 TranceStorm wrote:

Hey, I just got on the thread and read all the stuff, and Pandian's points were the first I had something to respond to. Personally, as I said earlier, I feel uneasy about Prot's campaign because of his potential for swapping allegiances later in the game. The other candidate's I don't have any clear reads on since there is absolutely no and since we can't confirm anything. I'm inclined to believe that Pandian is the detective from my personal gut feeling from his original post though, even though I don't think his idea to reveal himself was all the great for the town.

On April 11 2011 08:00 TranceStorm wrote:

I think the support for GMarshal is a bit suspicious at the moment. Everyone seems to justify their vote for GMarshal on the basis that he is the most pro-town and that argument is thrown around alot. But it seems like alot of people are sheeping to his side without alot of justification for why. Personally, I think that Dr. H has been the most town to me because of his aggressive approach. I don't think any mafia would want to make that aggressive of a start at the beginning of a game - they'd rather appear more passive to the town. Would a mafia risk making that many contradictions at the beginning of a game?

Dr. H's accusations seem a bit erratic and scattergun and may cause trouble later down the road, in my opinion he is the most town out of all the candidates making him the safest choice for me.

On April 15 2011 08:31 TranceStorm wrote:
I just got back to this thread, and jesus christ I have missed so much. Personally, I feel that Serejai is definitely mafia because of his almost complete lack of comprehension in his posts. If you read his comments in some other threads, they seem rational and well thought-out as in he was definitely trying to understand the situation at hand. Here, however, he doesn't act like he's actively trying to understand whats going on and blatantly makes statements that defy logic What motivation would he have for doing so if he were town?

From my cursory glance at the thread, no one has seemed to step up and deny that Serejai is probably a mafia, but everyone seems to glide over the issue to focus on other lynch targets. I think this is currently misguided, we can't know for certain if any of those people are mafia or not so we should wait for a few more night actions. On the other hand, we have an almost guaranteed mafia in the form of Serejai. The likelihood that Serejai is mafia is far greater than that of any of the other players, each of whom seems to have lots of supporters and detractors.

On April 17 2011 02:02 TranceStorm wrote:

I find your responses to being put under pressure very troubling though. In the very beginning, you seemed to be more active and willing to question the motives of other players. After Barundur started to put pressure on you, you put up the excuse that you were new and wanted to avoid being seen as scum repeatedly - until we've reached this moment where you are basically saying "lynch me, but you'll regret it!". To me, the fact that you have withdrawn as the game moved on is highly suspicious especially since each post seems to be a justification as to why you shouldn't have to make contentful posts in the future.

On April 18 2011 07:54 TranceStorm wrote:
I'm going to vote for jaminz for today's lynch. Mig's post on jaminz is especially incriminating for me on jaminz' remarkable change in posting behavior. Considering how helpful he seemed to be in the previous game that Mig spotted (Haunted Mafia), you would expect that jaminz would contribute a little more in the current circumstances.

jaminz is a much stronger candidate than kevconsim for me. Reading from his previous games, his contribution always seems to be rather limited which makes him an extremely uncertain lynch target in my opinion.

On the issue of the roleblocks, I think we should wait another day before we make any judgments on whether m0nster or Barundur are lying. It seems especially strange that the number of people roleblocked should go from 1 to 2 (it seems far more likely for 2 people to have been roleblocked on the first night and only 1 on the 2nd night considering the collection of hits between the assassins). If there are indeed 2 roleblockers, why would they choose to not roleblock on the first day?

On April 14 2011 09:26 urashimakt wrote:

This bit was particularly interesting. The only reason I can see for being openly rude to the mafia team is in trying to endear yourself to the town. A townie could have reason to do this, sure, but I find it would probably come more naturally to someone who felt obligated.

It's also interesting because, as night fell, you came out with a pretty specific list on who you wanted blues to go to work on. When no one really responded to it, you attempted to prompt responses to see whether other people were in agreement. I felt that was really anti-town because it would help mafia know who to avoid wasting KP on or getting caught killing/drugging, and who to hit: the "less important" individuals.

I think it might be worth noting.

On April 13 2011 14:43 urashimakt wrote:
Do bodyguards flip bodyguard when they die?

I'm not going to be placing my vote on a lynch target until some of the veterans post their take on the situation over the next day, but I felt like posting why I'm most suspicious GMarshal now that we're out of the night.

+ Show Spoiler [Asked for specific night actions] +

As far as I can tell, asking for specific night actions was/is detrimental to town. It openly tells red who they should avoid hitting or visiting, just in time for them to do some night actions. It is worth noting, though, that he suggested using a medic on tnkted and tnkted still died. I'm still not convinced that's a point of absolute redemption.

Jackal58 posted a protect/watch list on page 81, but it was pretty generic and just listed veterans as what appeared to be a suggestion. Also worth noting for people better at analysis.


GMarshal seemed very favorable to the idea of continuing the open town discussion on "who should mafia not bother hitting tonight?" He stated his stance on this before the game started, but some time after role PMs had been sent out. GM's quote bolded as follows:

+ Show Spoiler +

These are actions I considered pretty suspicious. I'll be reading what the better players have to say about the night occurrences later on today before I place my own vote.