EPTTL Mafia XXXVI
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
RebirthOfLeGenD was just temp banned for 2 weeks by Hot_Bid. That account was created on 2008-11-12 06:44:02 and had 2888 posts. Reason: See you in two weeks. Huh. That sucks. I was looking forward to playing with him. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 18 2011 10:03 Node wrote: I am so glad you guys are better at watching the automated ban thread than me. Naw, i just noticed that his icon was a Lock. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 20 2011 04:28 LunarDestiny wrote: I think having vets as replacements is biased against mafia. In previous games, mafia tends to use their early nightkills to eliminate experienced town players. In the late game, there will be an inactive town and they will win. If you have vets as replacement, a modkill happens late in the game and vet is replace as town. The next chance that mafia have to kill this vet is the following night. If you are trying eliminate mafia win because, in the late game, town is inactive or the only town players left are newer players who can't convince one another, then I have no objection. Firstly, it doesn't say anywhere that the modkills with be townies. The mafia could just tell all of their noob members to go inactive, so that they could rack up a few vets for their team. While I agree that most modkills will be townies, I don't see it as a bias. I also agree that this will make it harder for mafia to win based off an inactive town, but honestly, I think it's a good idea. Inactivity is a really bad thing for town, and it's been getting worse. Eliminating this strategy for mafia is a good thing for the game in general. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Happy birthday Panda! ![[image loading]](http://perfectpandas.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/panda-birthday.jpg) Also, since we are on the topic of strategy before people have been assigned roles, how 'bout them DT's? It seems like they will be extremely valuable as they will be one of the few sources of information. While we shouldn't rely on DT's, we should at least discuss how they can maximize their potential, if they are actually in the game. How long should they gather information before letting us know what they have found? It says that bodyguards are publicly announced. This is correct? I got a different impression talking to LSB earlier. Mafia KP isn't mentioned anywhere. Do they even have KP? Will we know the formula for how KP is calculated? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 20 2011 12:12 Amber[LighT] wrote: anymore room? /in if so...  Sweet. I was hoping you'd play. Hope I'm not mafia. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 20 2011 13:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I hope not, considering there's a 24 hour "night" before the first day. That would give town 72 hours to make out the first set of clues haha. Question of my own: Do Mafia pick who kills each person, only played once, so I'm not sure. Will the clue be left about that person, or will you just randomly pick someone from the mafia team? For example, Mafia would never send a roleblocker or godfather if a clue will be left about them, right? Also, for the serial killer, do they have to kill every night, and are clues left about them? obv scum here. Can we start voting? Or better yet, Can i shoot him night 0? It only says I can't shoot night 1... + Show Spoiler + XD | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 21 2011 00:49 LSB wrote: Ignore everything I said about KP and Bodyguards. It still isn't finalized yet. Will we know about the KP when it is finalized? | ||
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Kavdragon
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Kavdragon
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+ Show Spoiler + For both Mayor, and Lynch Do bodyguards protect against lynch? | ||
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Kavdragon
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Kavdragon
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On January 21 2011 10:58 kitaman27 wrote: You can be like LSB and announce your scummy plan before the game has started so you have a cover once you get your anti-town alignment pm! Shucks, looks like I'll have to wait till night 0 to start on my campaign. It was the perfect cover! So, If you are mafia, and you get elected as mayor, should you choose town or scum roles to be bodyguards? Hypothetical question. Of course. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 21 2011 11:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote: How does one run for mayoral election? Watch and learn, watch and learn. As a player who's been around for approximately no time, and has never run for mayor, much less play in a game with one, I think I'm a qualified expert. The easiest way to run for mayor, (and trust me, you want to run), is to post the following: "##Vote: Kav for mayor" You're practically guarantied the position! Again, type that in, it's an insta win! | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 21 2011 12:24 GMarshal wrote: Oh, it also helps if you claim that you will work for "town unity" Ooh. I'll have to work that into my campaign. Thanks. On January 21 2011 12:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: lol kav as someone who has actually won the mayorship before (yes LSB and RoL did have a lot to do with it). I'm going to say it's a whole lot more complicated then that. If anyone wants to srr an entertaining election look at insane mafia. Dang, that was an active game. Also, I plan on making my campaign more entertaining than insane. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 21 2011 13:26 LunarDestiny wrote: So please don't say you can prove that you are town as the main supporting reason why you should be mayor UNLESS you are 100% sure. Guess this means that I should take the DT claim out of my campaign... Shucks, that was a focal point of some pre-meditated hilarity. On January 21 2011 13:43 Amber[LighT] wrote: I am always pro town. Check the track record  So what you're saying is, the likelihood of you being mafia this game is really freaking high? Hmm. Maybe i can work your day one auto lynch into my campaign... | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 22 2011 06:27 LunarDestiny wrote: Can we have 2 less vanilla townies and one more veteran? Just get the game start. This. Please. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 22 2011 11:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm Meapak_Ziphh and I approve this message. On January 22 2011 11:26 SiNiquity wrote: I'm SiNiquity and I approve this message. I'm going to assume this means you endorse my campaign. I'll be putting that in my list of endorsement then. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 23 2011 02:19 LSB wrote: We will start at 11:00 KST tonight regardless of how much people have signed up Sveet. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 23 2011 04:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: SIGN ME THE FUCK UP That was a fast two week ban... | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 23 2011 08:09 LunarDestiny wrote: Just to get this out before I am scum: After the mayor is elected, I proposed that he pick the other candidates as bodyguard. This is important since it will discourage mafia from running. We really want town to have mayor role in this game. The death of mayor and bodyguards act like partial flipping. If mayor is dead and a bodyguard is alive. We lynch that bodyguard because the only possible ways mayor dies before bodyguard are we lynched mayor OR MAYOR IS TOWN AND BODYGUARD IS MAFIA. Lol, unless the bodyguards are town and the Mayor is mafia... And a vig takes a shot at the mayor. But I do agree, if bodyguards are publicly announced, then there's a little bit of information we can glean once the mayor has died. (Or perhaps before....=)) If the vig or mafia shoot a protected mayor, do the shoots fail, or are they re-directed? Rather, does the vig lose his shot? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
The stereo is the first thing that really sticks out at me. Also, the fact that it's playing "Spoon" an indi rock group, is important I think. Off the top of my head, I remember that Node says that he likes indi music in his profile, so he's my first suspect. A quick glance at the artists that he listens to on Last FM confirms that he has indeed been listening to Spoon. Hmm. Suspicious. Anyone else have thoughts on this? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Err. That's an example of what we are suppose to do, I believe. I do NOT believe that the clue would be pointing to Node however, because he's dead. Not the killer. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 23 2011 11:19 LunarDestiny wrote: I thought the bolding of the text is suspicious, so I did some googling of "black black black." http://www.blackblackandblack.com/ Are they basing the game on this site? Just a small glimpse of the site. Practice Areas - Overview At the law offices of Black, Black, and Black, our lawyers our extensively trained and focused on four practices areas of law including personal injury, criminal, family, and medical malpractice. Medical malpractice seemed to be the theme of this game. Any opinion? Bolding of the words seems like it's too obvious, but that's just my opinion. (Since you asked.) | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 23 2011 11:24 ilovejonn wrote: The clues must be something in those italic sentences... hmm. The italic sentances are the lyrics to a song by Spoon. Presumably, it's just text discribing the music that's playing in the background. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 23 2011 11:33 Nemesis wrote: You say that there are clues in the day post, but it does not point to any current mafia, so what does it point to then? Alright, it's time to get some activity going in here. What do you guys think about lynching inactives in the first day? Although, there is only a slim chance of us catching mafia, it would encourage people to post more and the more that mafia post, the greater the chance that they will slip up. Lynching inactives is a tactic to start a discussion. I don't think that we will need to do this, because we will have clues to look at, and a mayor to elect. That should be starter enough to get the information we need to lynch scum. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 23 2011 11:49 LunarDestiny wrote: Qatol? His profile mention using gun is stupid and using duct tape is smart. His profile pic is very black... I missed that. I think you're right. That makes sense. "Guns make you stupid. Better to fight your wars with duct tape. Duct tape makes you smart." In reference to those who think this an impossible task because of the large pool of candidates, Do you really think that the host didn't think of that? I mean, if they want this to work, the'll pick a person who we might look at. I'm going to guess that they are a mafia player, and that they are a somebody within TL Mafia. Since we have a few of the bigger names in this game, it shouldn't be too hard to look through the rest of them. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Good citizens of Liquidia! I present to you my campaign for Mayor of this fine town filled with wonderful people! Four score and seven minutes ago our hosts brought forth in this forum a new thread conceived in awesomeness and dedicated to the proposition that all men should post a lot. Now we are engaged in a great Mafia game testing whether this thread, or any thread so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on this great posting-field, TL Mafia, in honor of previous games. I have come to dedicate a portion of this thread as a mostly final resting-place for those who here were active that that their game might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But, in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men, posting and dead, who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract. The TL Mafia forum will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this thread under Node and LSB shall have a new birth of activity, and that my mayor-ship of the active, by the active, for the active shall not perish from the thread. But now we must move onward. With the memory of these invaluable players emblazoned in our minds, who will lead us to that play that glorious and active game? I humbly submit myself to the public office, willing to serve a thread, of the actives, by the actives, and for the actives. Under my leadership, the attacks of the enemy will be rebuffed, the confusion sown by the mafia will be silenced! Inactivity banished, and analysis rewarded! I stand for a town, united in activity and lynches for all scum! So come to my banner fellow Liquidians, let us run a race that in all likelihood will likely be quickly forgotten, but awesome none the less! Vote for activity! Vote for Scumhunting! Vote for Victory! Vote for KAV! Be convinced, if not by my words, then by the words of those who came before me. If not by words than by the lol worthy pictures I created for the occasion. If not by pictures, then by the epic music I wrote for a completely different occasion, but which I'm still shamelessly trying to use to further my campaign! + Show Spoiler [Text Endorsements] + On August 9 1974 11:63 VER wrote: Kav's the One. Kav for mayor. On January 20 1961 11:63 Node wrote: I Like Kav. Vote for Kav. On January 22 2011 11:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm Meapak_Ziphh and I approve this message. On January 22 2011 11:26 SiNiquity wrote: I'm SiNiquity and I approve this message. On January 21 2011 08:42 LSB wrote: KAV 4 MAYOR! I'll make you a mspaint poster!!!! + Show Spoiler [Pictorial Endorsements] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/rYprY.jpg) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/uPQtV.jpg) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xP1gN.jpg) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xk6JX.jpg) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/CzzTt.jpg) + Show Spoiler [Music] + Vote for Victory! Vote for Kav! + Show Spoiler + (PS, i might be an invincible Vigilante, that can protect anyone, and check two people for their role per night. It'd suck to pass up that awesome role in the mayor seat.) Первым человеком, решить мою головоломка в этой кампании будет получить мое восхищение. --отец КавДракона | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 23 2011 12:25 OriginalName wrote: We have 72 hours to figure out a lynch basically although i doubt anything really productive will occur night 0. Also for the newbie why are people typing /confirm The only reason we might not be able to get something done is because of people taking this attitude. We have an extended day, let's not waste it. Also, the clue will be a good way for us to figure out who is good at solving them, and consequently who might be a good mayor... | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Unless something serious comes up, I will follow town majority voting on what to do. I agree that the mayorship should be transparent. (For instance, if the majority thinks I should check Mafia total first night, then I'll do that. If they think I should check town, then I'll do that. I will reveal all information that the mafia would already know, (Like mafia counts), but I reserve judgment on giving out information on greens, and will likely not say anything about blue counts. My opinion on the bodyguards: If I were mayor, I would try to pick mafia as my body guards. This would protect me more than anything else, as my death (Before theirs) would be an obvious tell that they are scum. I will NOT pick players who are showing a high level of activity. If the are mafia, then they will likely slip up. If they are town, I'd hate to paint a target on them. This is subject to change, if someone can convince me. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Would I chose Lurkers, or other candidates? I can't honestly say I know yet. If Dr.H, RoL, You, and say, Amber[light] ran, then I don't think I would. They are potentially HUGE assets to the town, so I'd hate to give the mafia such obvious targets. However, I do like the idea of using this as a method of discouraging mafia to run. Thinking off the top of my head, Lurkers would be an OK choice, as it would discourage mafia from lurking, and if I picked a townie, then they are effectively a body guard for me, and other actives. If i had to chose today, I would pick someone who fits RoL's profile for mafia: Not a total inactive, not a really active, someone who is at or just above lurking status. (Note, that was what he said OUT of game, so I trust it to be sincere. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 23 2011 12:30 Jackal58 wrote: Solve the clue and I'll consider giving you my vote. I'm working on it. On January 23 2011 11:19 Kavdragon wrote: Right, so the Clue is a way for us to figure out how they work. Let it begin. The stereo is the first thing that really sticks out at me. Also, the fact that it's playing "Spoon" an indi rock group, is important I think. Off the top of my head, I remember that Node says that he likes indi music in his profile, so he's my first suspect. A quick glance at the artists that he listens to on Last FM confirms that he has indeed been listening to Spoon. Hmm. Suspicious. Anyone else have thoughts on this? On January 23 2011 11:20 Kavdragon wrote: EBWDP Err. That's an example of what we are suppose to do, I believe. I do NOT believe that the clue would be pointing to Node however, because he's dead. Not the killer. LD pointed out Qatol, and there are some things that match up, but not very many. Qatol remains my main suspect, but I don't expect it to stay that way. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 23 2011 13:31 LunarDestiny wrote: More reasons why I think it's Qatol: -Mod say this practice. It must be practice that involves looking at people's profiles and checking for clues. -It is traditional in TL mafia to choose veteran players for the opening post. I checked all veteran players and only Qatol had anything in his profile that somehow relates to the given clues. -I restrict my search within the mafia forum. So other potential people (kennigit, chill, day9, idra, combat-ex aka BEST PLAYER IN THE WORLD, etc) were not checked. Same here. I've been going through every major player I can think of and looking through the profiles. It's not all that hard because most have nothing to see, but as my search broadens, Qatol looks more and more likely. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 23 2011 16:25 kitaman27 wrote: I would like to announce my intention to run for Mayor on behalf of the Kavdragon sucks Party! Do not allow yourselves to be deceived by his well thought out posts and eagerness to lead the town to victory. I promise a campaign that delivers straight facts, rather than the propaganda spewing machine he has created. FACT: Kavdragon was mafia in Pokemafia. kitaman27 has never been mafia. FACT: Kavdragon has never correctly landed a vig hit. kitaman27 has never missed a vig hit* *while not being role blocked FACT: First is the worst. Second is the best. Third is the one with the treasure chest. Now allow me to uncover some shocking revelations: Using pro-town technology, I was able to uncover an additional hidden arrow. You heard it here first folks, kavdragon is a mod-confirmed scum. For those too lazy to translate here is what that means: I'm pretty sure I've seen similar symbols in a Call of Duty game in COMMUNIST RUSSIA! That's right, Kavdragon is a COMMUNIST. And what color do communists love? Red. What color is scum? Red. What color is the communist scum Kavdragon? Red + Show Spoiler [Text Endorsements] + On August 9 1974 11:63 VER wrote: Kav's the One. Kav for mayor. On January 20 1961 11:63 Node wrote: I Like Kav. Vote for Kav. On January 22 2011 11:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm Meapak_Ziphh and I approve this message. On January 22 2011 11:26 SiNiquity wrote: I'm SiNiquity and I approve this message. On January 21 2011 08:42 LSB wrote: KAV 4 MAYOR! I'll make you a mspaint poster!!!! Hey look, he was even kind enough to provide the entire scum team! As mayor, these would be my first 5 targets. In addition, as I predict to be the number one scum target as mayor, I nominate Kavdragon as my bodyguard to soak up all the bullets aimed in my direction. Has anyone noticed he never indicated which side would be victorious? How convenient. Let me fix that for you. Ok, so there are some blatant lies, and misleading statements here: 1) Using pro-town technology, I was able to uncover an additional hidden arrow. You heard it here first folks, kavdragon is a mod-confirmed scum. Hey! You just copy and pasted that arrow from a picture take during Pokemafia! It's true that my amazing transformation into a AWESOME MAFIA KILLING DRAGON OF DOOM takes a few games, that picture was simply taken a couple games too early. 2) Kavdragon has never correctly landed a vig hit. Arguably my role in Merc Mafia could be considred a "vig" role. So I have hit someone. 3) lolz this town is full of noobs. Unless a brave, handsome individual comes forth to oppose me, this game is already over. Brb, going to kill some puppies. -Kavdragon You mistranslated that last line, it should be: "Brb, going to go kill some kittens. --Father Kavdragon" + Show Spoiler + Not true. I love kittens. Please don't hurt me flamewheel. On January 23 2011 18:13 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: also why does everyone keep talking about Qatol? Hes not even in the game o.O? Do we really want a mayor who can't keep up? Is this the kind of question we want our mayor to ask? | ||
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Kavdragon
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Kavdragon
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Firstly, I strongly agree that mayoral candidates should be extremely active at least till the election is over. This will help discourage mafia from running, and help root out those that do. To that end, I will try to be as active as i can, giving my views and opinions openly to be analysed. Please note that due to the nature of this some of the ideas I bring up may not be that polished, and I apologize if I make a mistake here or there. Despite this, I believe that it will be clear through my posting that I am indeed town. Bodyguard selection: People have been saying that there are three possibilities for selection. This is only partially true. The bodyguards selection will have three possibilities as far as alignment goes, but role-wise, there are better possibilities than even two mafia. Here are my opinions on each setup: 2 Mafia BG's: This would be a great pick, but the blind chances are going to be around 5% that i pick TWO mafia. The pick is NOT blind, but any way to put it, the chances aren't good. As such this is not a realistic option. Even if I did manage to land one mafia, that would leave me with 1T/1M BG's, which is by far the worst set up. This is a no go. 1 Mafia, 1 Town BG: This is the worst setup, and is likely what would happen if we tried to choose two mafia. As has been stated, this would essentially mean that the mafia could trade one of their own, for me. Bad trade for the town. 2 Town: This is not the best outcome, but it's the best thing that i think we can realistically realize. It would be much easier to choose two town BG's, than two mafia, and I think that we run a much lower risk of a 1/1 BG split. As such, I think that this is what we should try for. How we try for it is another thing. Assuming that we get two townies in, the safest possible outcome for the mayor is two Vets. I'm going to put my safety first for the purposes of this argument, and assume that the mayorship is worth two Vets. So how might we go about getting vets into the BG position? This is where I start to get worried, because mafia can actually start getting involved. One idea that I'm currently entertaining is asking for volunteers, like Mr. Wiggles was saying. As CubEdIn pointed out, people are usually obey the universal rule of self-preservation. I think that Vet's are an exception to this rule, as they are supposed to be out there, vocal, taking hits. Even if normal townies sign up, I doubt that the mafia would risk wasting KP early in the game. I'd like to hear more discussion on how to get two townies in the position, as I believe that it is definitely the best course of action regarding Bodyguards. I'd also like to hear what people think about the Vet's being in that position. Census In a game stripped of so much information, I think that the information gained by this is extremely valuable, even if it should not be relied on. The first check would go to finding the number of Mafia. After that, I would decide what to do based of of what happened during the day. For instance, while I agree with Kita that checking Mafia constantly would be nice for getting information out of lynches, I think that we can squeeze more information out of it. Knowing that someone is mafia only helps if they are connected to someone else. As such I would only check mafia consecutively if the lynch target had a convincing connection to someone else. After checking the mafia, my priority would be flexible, but would l would likely check the number of blues next, and here's why: Once we know the number of mafia, the there are three groups of people left to check: Blue, Green, and Black. Black will be a small number, say 1 or 2. If we know the number of blues, we know the number of Greens, plus or minus one. (This would also work in reverse, if I checked the greens, but the number of blues gives a bigger hint at the number of black, so I think that checking blues will squeeze the largest amount of information out of the check.) Another advantage to checking blues, is that it deprives the the mafia from gaining any extra information, as I would not make that knowledge public. Other notes: We haven't discussed SK's being mayor, or BG's yet, and let's face it, the chances are slim that they would make it into a position like that. But the last thing I want to do is forget about them. Will there be a clue pointing to mafia in the first day post? | ||
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Kavdragon
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I realized right after I posted that, that knowing whether a person is mafia or not is more valuable, as we will know that the clue-trail that lead to them is cold. Oh well, I don't think it makes a huge difference. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 07:41 kitaman27 wrote: I would gladly trade myself for a mafia. The census is nice and all, but eliminating a scum would surely be worth the loss. The problem is that the mafia are always connected to each other. They know each others identities and will attempt to manipulate the town into saving one of their own. The ability to interpret lynch results should not be sacrificed in order to receive novelty information. Yes, trading a townie for a mafia is a good trade, but I think that the mayor was given an informational power that should not so carelessly be thrown away. I do not agree that trading any one person would be worth it however. For instance, if there was a DT in the mayor seat, i think that it would be worth one mafia. (Note, this is NOT a claim, so please don't hound me as if it were.) Also, I'd check the number of mafia first. If the number is odd, then the number of KP shown the next night will tell us if we were right or not. It would be a waste to use the Mayor's power to double check this. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 08:00 Mr. Wiggles wrote: It almost seems like it would help scum more than town to know the number of blues still alive. If I'm wrong, could someone tell me how knowing blue numbers helps town? It would also be good to check mafia a couple of times, because if the number changes and their kp changes at the same time, then we'll be able to figure out their KP formula and won't need to census them anymore as we'll know the #ofmafia +/- 1. The number of blues will can help the town because we will have a rough idea what we are up against. We can assume that the game is balanced, so if there are a bajillion blue roles, we know that tons of claims, and lots of mafia are likely. The information would NOT be made public, and might not even be given to the masons. The general rule for mafia KP = Mafia/2 (rounded up). The host decided not to reveal this information, so it's possible that it will change, but we will get a rough idea based off the first check of mafia numbers, and the number of night KP shown. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 08:09 kitaman27 wrote: Once you find a single mafia, you are much more likely to find others. Since there are clues, the dt becomes even less relied on. I still believe any person, regardless of role, would be worth the trade. If a mafia and SK hit overlaps than it would appear as if we had decreased the kp, when in reality we did not. As a result, the next lynch would be based upon false assumptions. I don't think that it would be a waste. Fair points. I think that a medic might still be worth it, but whatever. I agree that the mayor is not a god that must be saved at all cost. However I think that it's worth something, and selecting a mafia bodyguard is not a guaranteed mafia find. As far as mafia/sk stacked hits, I can't think of a counter argument offhand, but the point that I was trying to make is that I would be flexible with my census choosing. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 09:08 BrownBear wrote: Should we have veterans claim and be used as bodyguards? + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2011 07:27 Kavdragon wrote: So how might we go about getting vets into the BG position? This is where I start to get worried, because mafia can actually start getting involved. One idea that I'm currently entertaining is asking for volunteers, like Mr. Wiggles was saying. As CubEdIn pointed out, people are usually obey the universal rule of self-preservation. I think that Vet's are an exception to this rule, as they are supposed to be out there, vocal, taking hits. Even if normal townies sign up, I doubt that the mafia would risk wasting KP early in the game. I'd like to hear more discussion on how to get two townies in the position, as I believe that it is definitely the best course of action regarding Bodyguards. I'd also like to hear what people think about the Vet's being in that position. | ||
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Kavdragon
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
The song lyrics are from a song called "Retrace" by anberlin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anberlin This would fit with the "I'm writting in reverse" theme that was in the night post. Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. From Mr Zerglings's profile + Show Spoiler + Favorite Movie scene: There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing! Nothing huge, but something worth pointing out. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 12:52 kitaman27 wrote: The Kavdragon Sucks Party is happy announce its official endorsement for Kavdragon as mayor! LOL. Thanks? | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 12:52 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: DrH and Kav and anyone else running for mayor I'd like you to answer these questions: How will you select BGs? a) What do you think of having vets claim for BG? DrH You've already said you're against it but I'd like to know why. As I have said before, I think that the most realistic setup is getting two town aligned people to be body guards. It would be nice to get vets in those spots, but calling for vets will ruin the game for those that aren't chosen. I think that the best way is to ask for volunteers. b) What do you think of trying to get a red as BG? If you're against it why? If you're for it why and how do you propose doing this? I think that it would be great if we could get TWO red, but really bad if we get ONE red. Because the chances of getting two reds is so small, I do NOT advocate this plan. c) What do you think about having people volunteer for BG? See above. I support this idea. How will you determine you first lynch? Which mayor power will you use first and why? I'm going to assume you mean who will I check, as the mayor has only one power. (Other than the first lynch) I will check red roles. This information can, and will be distributed to the town, as the mafia know this already, and it will only help the town. In addition, it may help us calculate the KP of the mafia, and/or the formula by which it is calculated. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
(Lunar Destiny, you were in Merc Mini, do you see this?) We had a similar pre-day time that we were allowed to use in Merc Mini Mafia. RoL's (scum) play in Merc Mini Mafia? He HATED the 48hr night that we had before the game started, and didn't post at all. I eventually pressured him into posting, but he was very reluctant. What do you think of what he's doing here? He later confessed that he wasn't sure what to do with the time, and decided to keep quite instead of risking a slip up. He agreed that the time was valuable. Also, he came in, read enough to see that people where talking about Qatol, but didn't read the mod-font that was explaining why we were looking at him? Could this be a tactic to make us think that he just came into the game, while in reality he's been organizing scum? Since then he's done little other than put him self up for election, and lurk on the sidelines. This makes little sense for someone who I KNOW is capable of being a powerful townie. I'd like to know what's up RoL, why the lurk? | ||
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Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote: Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor? You complain with what I advocate, but don't suggest anything yourself. You put down the solving of the clue, and have not really advocated anything other than a discussion of inactive lynches, something that you never followed up on. Start giving opinions. For instance, what exactly do not like, that I am advocating? | ||
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Kavdragon
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Sorry, I don't mean to come off chainsawy with these last few posts, but there have been a few things bugging me, and I think that I can talk about them now. | ||
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On January 24 2011 13:31 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Because I've been playing Little Big Planet 2 and cleaning my room. I prefer to think about things thoroughly before I post about them. There is no point posting every half baked idea I might have about the clues and it'll just be cluttering. I have been working on and thinking about the clues, just because I haven't been posting about them doesn't mean I'm not thinking about it. I'll post my thoughts on it when I feel I have something to say that has yet to be said and that may actually lead somewhere. I just don't have any strong feelings about the clues. If I had to point a finger somewhere it'd be at OriginalName or Nemesis I guess. It's weak though. I understand, and respect your wish to post well thought out posts. I'm not doing this till the election is over, so that people have ample enough time to examine me. However, I want to see that work eventually make it's way onto the forum. | ||
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On January 24 2011 14:47 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Also, going to bed now, won't be back for 16 hours. Be nice. Man, if I could sleep 16 hrs.... Geeze. So that I can put out a concrete name, I will lynch OriginalName if elected. I have previously said that I would lynch a lurker, and he fits that bill. The fact that the clues seem related to him adds to that. | ||
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Again, I'm posting a lot so that it's clear that I'm town. Those who are not running for mayor should be putting more thought into their posts, reading the thread better, and trying not to repeat information that has already been given. (There have been several players who haven't read the OP very well, and are wasting the time of others when they have to inform them of it. Try to read the OP at least.) I don't want to discourage activity. I want to discourage spam. It has been made clear that the mafia can not rely on inactivity to win this game, because of the replacements, mayor, and such. Thus they will likely try to get the forum so spammy that people can't get the important information out of it. | ||
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On January 24 2011 15:14 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Then when the mayor dies and the BGs are both still alive we just got two free scum. However it doesn't seem like people think volunteers are a good idea so I'll drop it. I wouldn't drop the volunteer thing yet. The two people who said it was bad was Nemesis, and Dr.H. Both had flawed reasoning. Nemesis because he assumed that over half the town would volunteer, and that they would all be green. Dr.H because he mistakenly thought that the BG's were privatly picked. I still support this plan. | ||
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On January 24 2011 16:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I think someone mentioned killing OriginalName if they were elected, although I don't see anything saying the mayor gets to kill someone. | ||
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On January 25 2011 05:51 Beneather wrote: I guess that my vote will be going to KavDragon since I agree with most of his points. Except for choosing Volunteered BGs because that just allows Mafia to pick them off for free since which was stated post before this. The reasoning that was behind that statement was false. Please, think about what it means. The bodyguards are publicly announced. This means that the mafia can pick them off if they want to devote to picking off the mayor. Volunteering does nothing to endanger BG's more than they already are. Unless I'm calling for medics and Vig's to be BG's. In that case, lynch me. | ||
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Please note the posting history of Aidnai this game: Obviously he's a scum lurker. ##Vote: Aidnai | ||
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On January 25 2011 08:55 BrownBear wrote: Who is aidinai? More importantly, why has he managed to completely derail town with one useless post? Let's focus more on the mayoral debate. For one, I wonder why RoL voted Kav without giving reason. Maybe he's just not voting for himself, either because he doesn't think he can, or because he is being polite. Or maybe he's decided he doesn't want the mayoral position that much after all. If so, why? Aidnai is my brother. Feel free to assume that anything he does is him trying to screw with me. It's probably true. | ||
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Case Against OriginalName: Clues From ON's profile: What do Tigers Dream of when they take their little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling Zebras or Halle Berry in a Catwomen suit? Well don't you worry your little tiger head we'll get you back to tyson and your cozy tiger bed! And then we'll find our best friend Doug and then we will give him a best friend hug. Doug Doug douggie Doug Doug and if he gets caught by some Crystel Meth Tweakers Then were Shit Outta Luck From the day post: It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? Never thought I'd walk on this street again. I should have known that this voyaged was cursed with bad luck from the start. There are several corralations between OriginalName. (Remember, Tigers are just big cats. They tie in too. His public profile is a quote from Hangover, a movie.) Post Analysis We have 72 hours to figure out a lynch basically although i doubt anything really productive will occur night 0. Lightly discourages contrabution on Night 0. This was posted about 1.5 hours into the game, at which point lots had already happened. Why assume that nothing will happen, when things aleady are? then /confirm also via google translate Первым человеком, решить мою головоломка в этой кампании будет получить мое восхищение. --отец КавДракона] The first person to solve my puzzle in this campaign will get my admiration for his father. - KavDrakona Decodes my message, but adds nothing to the actual discussion at that point. Just my two sense but remember this. Who knows maybe the Black could be such a red herring to throw us off >_>. Light defense of himself, but very non-commital. Oddly non commital considering that he's been FoS'd via clues several times at this point. He also fails to adress the main clues, "cat" and "Luck". This looks scummy to me. More non-comittal, and extremely timid responses. More (Flimsy) insight on Mi Dio (My God intrepation) Kenpachi - Semi-extremely flimsy Why be the creation if I can be the creator? Creator is the keyword here as God is seen as a creator and some cultures revolve around a creator as a deity while not taking the name of god Divinek's - Less Flimsy but i doubt the name itself would be a clue Again, he is posting like a new mafia player, who is nervous about being scum. A townie would post much more boldly becaues he knows he's town, and he has nothing to fear/lose. Overall, he posts with with an extremely timid voice. A quick glance at his play in Don't Lose Yo Mafia shows that he is much more aggressively, and with a lot more authority in his posts. He was town in that game, and although the roles were somewhat reversed, it proves that he's not timid because he's new. This in addition to the connections made with clues make him my primary target. Note, I built this case offline, so i couldn't use the quote feature. As such, it's just a copy past job, so sorry if some spoilers don't work. Also, i see that since I have written this, ON has posted more, but it is simply definitions, and not anything that I see as contributing. Does anyone else have any thoughts on this? | ||
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On January 25 2011 10:39 ilovejonn wrote: Um, actually that's exactly what he did. I actually agree to some extent with BrownBear, because he did such a bad job of pushing it off, but he is a newer player, so it could just be that he's not sure what to do. Normally I would credit behavior like this to being mafia, or blue, but his play in DLYM is so bold, that I have a hard time believeing that he's blue... | ||
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On January 25 2011 10:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I agree that we shouldn't be 100% locked into lynching ON but as Ilovejonn (can I abbreviate to ILJ?) pointed out, ON has done a couple of weakish and scummish defenses of himself. Right now I'm inclined to say he's a SK rather than mafia but either would be a good kill. However I will (and I hope Kav does as well) continue to look around to make sure we have the best fit for the clue. The reason I don't believe he is SK is the clues. It seems very odd for the hosts to point out an SK day one. That being said, the easy way is to ask. Do the clue(s) in the day one post point to Mafia, SK, or either? Or do we only know that they are a killer? | ||
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On January 24 2011 11:20 Node wrote: As LSB said, there are clues in the Day 1 post. I obviously can't say where they are now, but they will take the more "traditional" format DrH mentioned in future days. Has anyone considered the fact that the hosts are being really ambiguous about the day 1 clue(s)? On all other days it says that there will be clues leading to the killer of the person, but what if the first day was different...Why are they being non-committal towards the first day? | ||
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On January 24 2011 08:49 Node wrote: Yes. The rule of thumb is that for each person that dies, one clue is left. Of course, there is no guarantee that this will always be the case. On January 21 2011 00:47 LSB wrote: Besides the day 1 clue, clues will only be about people who was sent to do the kill. Due to fairness, not all SK kills will have clues associated with the SK On January 23 2011 11:50 Node wrote: A batch of clues pointing to the mafia / serial killers of this game will be posted in the day 1 post. Can we get some clarification on what we know about the day 1 clues? I'm getting mixed messages. LSB said that he can't comment on who the clues point to on day 1, but Node says that they are pointing at SK and Mafia? Otherwise, almost all descriptions purposefully leave out anything about day 1. I'm guessing this is intentional, but can you tell me if the last quote above is still valid? | ||
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Will mafia be in control of who is sent out to kill, or will it be RNG'd? | ||
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Note that while the Mason would be a confirmed townie, the mayor would not be confirmed. Thus the flow of information should only go to the mason, who should not pass it to anyone else unless extreme conditions warrant it. Perhaps with time, the mayor will build enough trust that he can be entrusted with information that the mason has, but I'm not going to assume that. This seems the best plan to me, but I'm looking at it from the mayor's position. Anyone have any problems with this? | ||
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On January 25 2011 13:08 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I remember a while ago they used to ban that in games. I guessed we stopped though. Running before the game started is stupid and doesn't give you shit to analyze. They can use it as a point of trust when they could of lucked their way into a strong mafia position. Sorry, it was ignorance that lead me to announce my intention to run for mayor. I mistakenly thought that I wasn't supposed to start posting an official campaign till the game started. I see the mistake I made, and I'm genuinely sorry for it. For the record, it was origenally intended as a joke, but as I'll explain in a second, I decided to stick with it so that it would not fall into mafia hands. As far as my plans revolving around the mayorship, let me explain my reasoning, however badly thought out it may be: I have learned not to trust anything, except my role PM. I KNOW that I am town. The rest of you don't know that, but I do. I want the mayorship to be in townie hands, and the only guaranteed way that will happen is if I'm the one in that seat. Asking masons to recruit me first was an attempt to make sure that they survive, not a power play. As I pointed out when I suggested it, it was not an attempt to give more information to the mayor, but an attempt to get some of the eggs out of the mayor's basket, and into another confirmed townie's basket. I realize that you cannot know that I am a townie, and thus you cannot support me trying to get in a more central role, so I will back down from my stance there, but know my reasoning for trying in the first place. In general I'm putting ideas out there, and asking what people think of them. I'm not advocating all of them, but I know that I'm not going to catch every nuance of every little plan, so I put it out in the public. I know that you can be a better player than me, RoL, I just don't KNOW that you are town. That's why I'm running against you, and not voting for you. One last note, while I was the first person to vote, and I voted myself, I agree that it seems a bit untasteful for someone to vote for them self. Because of this, I'm going to switch my vote to you. Hopefully it won't cause too much confusion, and this way we can vote for eachother, and not mess up any vote counts. | ||
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On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more. You are calling for more analysis, and less clue hunting, but as far as I can remember, I'm the only player who has done ANY analysis thus far... Back up your claims and post some analysis if you want me to take you seriously. Two things that I should clarify: My proposed lynch of OriginalName is based off of post analysis just as much as clue analysis. I'm not giving up my run for mayor, I'm simply voting for someone other than myself. | ||
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On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more". I hadn't thought of the fact that people would be looking to me for the "good" ideas. I suppose that that's what comes with the mayorship, because people have voted you a capable player. It's really pretty obvious, but the idea of one person leading the town's decisions is such a bad/foreign idea to me that I didn't really consider it being exactly what could happen to a mayor. On that subject, I strongly disagree with leaving any mayor the power to make large decisions. I would treat any mayor as a special townie. His opinion is not necessarily right, just like a confirmed townie is not necessarily right. You wouldn't vote me if you thought i was mafia, so just trust that I'm tying my best should I get into the mayorship. Do NOT take my word as some sort of upper authority. Like i said before, RoL, Dr.H, Amber, and others are capable of playing better than me. However none of them have really stepped out and shown good work, except for a few posts by RoL. | ||
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Kavdragon
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The biggest reason I can think of is that the mayor is given protection, so you want an active and helpful townie. But that doesn't mean that they have to become some god who's word is law or anything. The power of who is lynched, what the town plans are, and all of that should be in the town's hands. If the mayor doesn't have good enough , or isn't vocal enough, then why listen to him? Like RoL said, don't put all your hope in one person. Don't let one person decide what's going to happen. This discourages activity, and makes it easy for the mistakes of one person to decide the game. Everyone should be vocal in what they think should be done. No one should rely on another person to make their decisions for them. | ||
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On January 26 2011 01:24 darmousseh wrote: Well, the mayor gets the most information out of all the town aligned players and therefore any plan relies on having that census information which only the mayor has access to. Also he is the only known player with a specific role. Of course by default, the mayor needs to be align checked right away to make sure we aren't getting mis-information. If the mayor is a townie though, then he is arguably the most powerful townie. The mayor cannot be role checked, that's why we have to be careful of who we elect. The mayor will only get more information if he is censusing something other than mafia. If he's checking only mafia, then that information will be spread to the town, and he will not have any more information than anyone else. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense to check the mafia count every night. But this can be discussed in the days to come, because I think everyone agrees that Mafia number should be the night 1 check, so that gives us till night 2 to decide. Given that the day one clues point to "killers" including the vigilante, We have to consider the possibility of OriginalName being a vig. My post analysis would say that he is not, but I'm not positive what ON's behavior would be like if he were. | ||
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That being said, I'm still planing on lynching ON, as I think that he is the best lead we have, and he's lurking. | ||
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On January 25 2011 02:15 Amber[LighT] wrote: Lol I don't think volunteering bodyguards based upon roles is a smart idea... IMO there is no real formula or requirement for who should be bodyguards. I think the idea of picking people and saying "well we need to protect these guys now" is bad as it's isolating the other 20+ people who could potentially be targets, because lets face it, mafia isn't going to stack kills to get at the mayor in the first 2 nights. Aside from the easy time it will be for townies to analyze players who discount the importance of bodyguards and the mayors role if the above plan was proposed, we are creating a narrow window of playstyle from the town that will end up costing us more hits at night than we want. IE- Risk is not worth the reward in this scenario. The mayoral candidates should also not consider the bodyguards as throwaway individuals. The candidates need to get their thinking caps on and pick players who are "almost targets." These would be the players that mafia _could_ target on night one. This could be because of posting habits. It could be because of personal "hatred" towards other players. It could be because killing these people will incite blame in someone else. You also have to think about the clues. Everyone's profile is full of information, so certain kills could be skewed towards a certain player. Players who could be implicated on some "rough around the edges clues" are going to stay around longer. They might be good bodyguard targets. How will the candidates decide this? Take a few minutes to look at the profiles of EVERY player and see what connections can be made. If you can find similarities in profile content between a few players then you should note it and possibly use them as your bodyguards. Then again I don't know how mafia is going to treat the breadcrumb trail of clues so this could just be speculation. This type of discussion should be reserved until day 2, but if I was running I would consider picking people who would be less likely night 1 targets (for example: RoL shouldn't pick DrH and vice-versa). The bolded parts are a seeming contradiction, but the rest of it simply doesn't make sense. I'd be interested in what your opinions are on these topics, but I can't understand what you are trying to say. Your plan seems like a way of clumping the mafia's targets into a small group of people to get them all killed easily... | ||
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I don't buy the arguments that people are making about it would "narrowing down the group of people that could be blues, making it that much easier to kill them". We already have a few volunteers, and I don't think that we would be flooded with them. Plus mafia would doubtless have to dive into a bunch of wifom about whether or not blues volunteered, so I don't think that it gives them any real information on who is blue or not. If the town votes against this idea, I will follow their decision, but I will argue my point as if i were just another townie none the less. | ||
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Also, the BG discussion is taking up WAY too much time. The mafia are deliberately trying to keep it going, so that we waste valuable time not doing analysis. Again, more to come. I'm heading off on my commute, and I don't expect to be back in till about half an hour before the vote, but I'll have more to say on this once I get to an internet connection. | ||
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Here's the short version from my memory: RNG is stupid. Bum is Scum. BrownBear is being dumb for following Bum. I'm considering lynching Bum, if the town agrees. Otherwise I will follow through with the ON lynch, so as not to upset people. | ||
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OriginalName has been sent to the gallows. "May God have mercy on your soul." | ||
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RoL: You've stated that the town will win if everyone contributes, and you've said that you are very good at analysis. Please start analyzing. I don't know why you haven't started yet, but I'm having bad flashbacks to Merc Mafia. I KNOW you are capable of more than you are doing right now. If this is your last game in a while, why sit back and not participate in the analysis? D3: Dr.H said that he was thinking a lot about the clues and analyses, and said he would post them later. He's gone now, and he didn't leave anything. I know you are capable of playing well too. I'd love to see you get out there and analyse. I know from experience that it's not fun having you on the analyzing side when your scum. I'd love to see that same play here, even if you aren't a SK this time. Amber: While I haven't seen you play an active townie in any of the games I've played with you, I've heard a lot of good things about you, I I'd like to see you step up and start analyzing people too. So far your contributions have been fairly difficult to understand, and far in-between BrownBear: I'm really confused that you went along with Bum's RNG plan as long as you did. You've played a lot and from what I've seen and heard, you should have seen the problems with that plan. At the same time, if you were scum, I think your are experienced enough to have seen that it would be immediately discarded, so that doesn't make sense either. I'm starting to rebuild my analysis on Bum now, I hope to have it back together before I go to bed. | ||
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My Case for Bumatlarge: On January 22 2011 01:35 bumatlarge wrote: Please don't kill me first, Post analysis: On January 23 2011 14:56 bumatlarge wrote: It's better to have a good player as mayor regardless of alignment then someone who you know might be prone to mistakes. Lol, wut? So it would be better to have a really good player who is scum in the mayor seat, than a bad townie? On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. ... Contradicts his earlier statement. He says that he doesn't want a clue-crapshoot, but the only way to avoid this is analysis, something that he hasn't done any of. Says he doesn't want a crap shoot, but wants to RNG the mayor. He says that RoL OR Kav is scum, but is unwilling to do an analysis of the two of us. Just two people. This game is based off of analysis, not probability. On January 23 2011 15:44 bumatlarge wrote: Well. I've quickly scanned through Mercmafia and BCE, and I like what I see. Very active townie who takes care in what he says. He'd probably assume a DarthThienMayor persona if he is scum. Not very flexible, but hard to get rid of. Just need to keep an eye on him. All in all, a very capable mayor. He has my vote. On January 25 2011 12:52 bumatlarge wrote: Gonna put my vote on kav, and if he can spot a few more clues on different folks and finalize his statement on picking BG's, my vote is staying there. Very confident in me as mayor. On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. On January 26 2011 09:13 bumatlarge wrote: I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town Changes his opinion without saying why. Why would he so confidantly vote for someone he didn't think was town? On January 26 2011 08:37 bumatlarge wrote: Let's just see how many people do it. Current number is 3, and numbers don't count after 8:00 est which is in 1&1/2 hours. GMarshal will be our mayor! :D Starts a concerted push for RNG'ing the mayor. As has been pointed out before it's a terrible plan that is very easily influenced by the mafia. He also starts this with 1.5 hours before the end of the day. On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation Backs out of his plan, and tries to dismiss it as only an idea. This was not the feeling I got from the posts, and judging by the fact that BB followed along, I'd say that he got the same message from Bum. On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. This is the core of your argument. (bolded) You are basing your argument off of something that may or may not be true. Sound familiar? On January 23 2011 11:03 LSB wrote: [*]WIFOM: Wine in Front of Me. Used to point out reasoning based on assumptions that may or may not be true. For example, Mafia would want to kill LSB. Therefore since LSB isn’t dead, he’s mafia. Also, from what I've gathered from other games, the typical meta from mafia recently has been "Lie back and let the town destroy itelf" not "Activly engage the town". But this is wifom too. Diagnosis This looks like scummy play to me. Perhaps overly scummy, but this could be explained: This game has no flipping, which means that the mafia do not need to worry about being dissasociated with eachother as much. If Bum and BB are scum, they don't need to worry about agreeing with eachother, because if one of them flips, the town still knows nothing about their alignment. This could very easily make a mafia more cocky, and forward with their posting. Conclusion: Bumatlarge is scum. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Papapanda: 5 Coagulation: 4 Tube: 2 Mr.Zergling: 6 Eti307: 2 TheAldo: 6 Impervious: 6 Divinek: 2 | ||
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On January 26 2011 16:03 LunarDestiny wrote: When I say "took out," I meant take him out of the list of suspects because Coag acts like this every game. Sorry, didn't mean this as a suspect list, just as a list of people who need to post more. On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote: Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering. I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information. Beneather was the first inactive I found through random clicking on the signup list. Not the optimal selection process, but I had about 60 sec to pick. | ||
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On January 27 2011 02:25 darmousseh wrote: Without any clues it's kinda boring right now. This game is about analyzing, and clues are an addition to that. Don't think that the town can win this on clues, cause it can't. We need everyone to step up and analyze others. This includes you. Also, the first post contained "a whole batch of clues". I don't know for certain that they point to more than one person, but I would be very surprised if they didn't. That first post can still be analysed for clues pointing to others. It's still possible that ON wasn't hinted at for all we know.. On January 27 2011 03:08 bumatlarge wrote: I suggest we put our coins in kavs korner. Meds should prot the BGs, as it gives us the best shot at winning for now. ill be around later to go more in depth and answer questions. I dislike this idea, and not because I think you're scummy. Medics shouldn't be given a strong direction for who to heal. The obvious choices are people who look very town, and BG's. But if we decide who they should heal, the mafia won't have to. So my advice is to protect whoever you think needs protecting. Make the mafia go into circles of wifom about who they should or shouldn't attack, and chances are they'll ignore both. On January 26 2011 22:51 BrownBear wrote: To be fair, I didn't "go along with it" for a long time. I posted one post being like "eh, whatever, here's a number", then was away for the rest of the day. Hope that answers your questions. Meh. Like I said, I was just confuse by the play. On January 27 2011 00:02 CubEdIn wrote: I was asking because you soon after made a strong point about bumatlarge. I'm not denying that bumatlarge seemed scummy, I even said so earlier on, but it looked odd, considering you had power over the first lynch, AND you would like Mafia as BGs, that you neither killed or picked bum as a BG, and instead made a case against him so the town have to use a lynch. The reason that I killed ON was because I said I would. If I had changed that at the last second, people wouldn't have liked it. The easiest way for the mafia to kill me is to get me lynched, and I'd hate to give them a reason to push for that. I considered making the my BG's, but kitaman had previously said that BB as BG was a bad idea, and I didn't want to change how I chose the BG's last second. If you look, I did try to see if the town would let me lynch Bum instead, but not enough people checked in before it happened, so i stuck with the choice that everyone agreed with. @Bum: I've read your defense, and to be honest don't believe yet, but i'm not your judge, the town is. They will decide if it's believable or not. I would like you to explain the first half of my analysis though, as it had nothing to do with the RNG mayor posts. | ||
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I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me. You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game. At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now? The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not. Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game. | ||
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In other news, I've been informed that there are 5 mafia. | ||
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Btw, people seem to think that SK would be willing to ally with the town. Very unlikely. The only way they die is lynch, so they have nothing to fear from mafia, and everything to fear from town. We are their biggest threat, so they will more likely sit on the side till one side gains the upper hand, or try to snipe townies. | ||
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Dear Impervious: WTF?: On January 24 2011 22:51 Impervious wrote: I'm gonna have to vote for RebirthOfLeGenD. Unexplained vote on RoL This was followed by him lurking(self described, not just my opinion) till he made these posts: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. Maybe, but If I'm town I'd be doing the exact same thing: looking for a scummy person and leading the town through example by analyzing him. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, Yes, you are correct that it is impossible to know with absolute certainty that i am town or that the information that I give is correct. This is true of any game. trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. Wrong. A mafia mayor would try to mislead the town down an unfruitful path, not encourage them to do actual analysis. Most mafia stay away from analysis because it's hard to write an argument against someone you know is innocent. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Kind-of-sort-of but not really. The town does not split the votes 50/50 between candidates. One will look like a better choice to most, and the majority of the town will vote for that one. While yes, a single player would get more votes as mafia given the exact same campain and posts, it's NOT true that on average mafia mayors get more votes than town mayors. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. WTF? You say that a mafia mayor would get more votes because mafia would vote for him. Then based off that, you say that we should lynch people who voted for me? You are calling me scum?( If I'm not scum, why would scum vote for me? If scum didn't vote for me, why lynch people who voted for me?) Lemme get this straight: You think that I'm mafia because i won. LOL. By your logic we should always lynch the mayor! Just because the mafia can stack a few votes on their candidate doesn't mean that they will win every time. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Wait, so you're advocating that we RNG the lynch? We have 30 pages of information, and I don't see you using any of it. Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. Lol, "worried". If you're so worried, why don't you analyze me! Put some money where your mouth is, and start actually contributing. (And don't say there's not enough information to analyze me, I've posted twice as much as almost anyone. There's TONS of material to pick from) Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Wrong. Why do you think that town would split 50/50? Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. Look, Analysis trumps statistics every time. If this game could be won with stats, it would be played with a calculator in math club. It's not. It's an analysis game. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. Oh good lord, this makes me sad. no, no, and no. Who did this backfire against? Bum? He was certainly not the most vocal person. Is this an attempt to scare people into being quiet? Here, let me speak your language: Statistically speaking, more than half the players are town. This means that statistically speaking, if we lynch someone, they are town. You're not even getting the statistics right either. Show me why the town is likely to split 50/50. Please, we have been extremely fortunet to have so much information to go on for the first day. The mafia will try to discourage us from doing analysis, saying "there's not enough information to go by" or "It's day one, nothing's happened". This is exactly the kind of complacency that gets the town killed. So far I'm the only person doing analysis. This too, is a sure road to failure. As RoL said, leaving the work of the town to one person will end in a loss for the town. I won't be right about every lynch, the town needs to work too. Clues are a good start, but we cannot win based off of clues. | ||
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On January 27 2011 13:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I was roleblocked last night. Anyone going to counterclaim? Not that there can't be two role blockers, but it does make things more interesting. (Actually, Has anyone seen a setup with 2 role blockers?) | ||
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On January 27 2011 13:18 kitaman27 wrote: Doesn't really clear him either way. A day one team roleblock to give credibility to their failed mayoral candidate is not out of the question. If you think about it, if RoL was town, giving one of the two mayoral candidates a sense of credibility would be one of the last things the mafia would want to do. On January 27 2011 13:20 bumatlarge wrote: We know a RB is in the game, and I doubt there would be 2. I'm sure RB can refrain from using there ability. If RoL is mafia, I don't see how this would help him, as you should give RB a shot, and this doesn't confirm much about him. Agreed. It doesn't clear him. I was just wondering if anybody would, for the sake of getting more information. | ||
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These clues are a bit easier than the ones that will be found in normal day posts. Please note that the hosts said the night 0 clues were easier than the rest would be. There will be a clue in the day post for each person who died. For example, if 15 people suddenly died, there would be 15 clues. However how someone died may or may not be a clue. Note that last line. Nemesis, clues can be found anywhere. Meapak's death could contain both or non of the clues. On January 27 2011 11:39 LunarDestiny wrote: And then the flash of steel from real guns From Nemesis: Also a Flash fan This is by far the most compelling clue I've found thus far. It's not quite as obvious as duct tape, but it's in a very similar form. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Night 0] + On January 23 2011 11:00 Node wrote: Night 0 ![[image loading]](http://www.meer.org/ebook/albatross-laboratory-2a.jpg) “Eureka!” Node exclaimed. “Igor! Look at this!” “My name is LSB...” “Whatever” Node replied, “Igor! I created a monster!” “It’s just a vial of black liquid. Sure doesn't seem that monstrous...” “Its not any ordinary liquid! Come, take a sip!” “That seems like a startlingly bad idea.” LSB cautiously replied. “Do you want to be paid or not?” Grudgingly, LSB took what barely qualified as a sip. Almost as soon as the dribble of fluid passed his lips, he collapsed onto the floor, limbs twitching. Minutes later he awoke to a glint of steel inches from his face. “What... hey... what are you doing with that knife???” LSB screamed. “Don’t worry, I’m just going to prick you to... uhh... test your blood.” Node coolly replied. And out the blood flew. Black as night, black as blindfolds, black as... blood. The experiment was a success. Later, while cleaning up his latest dispensable assistant, Node heard the thumping of loud music from outside his laboratory. “...the hell? That sounds like... Spoon?” I’m writing this to you in reverse Suddenly a man strolled into the room carrying a stereo. “Imbecile! What are you doing in here?!” Node cowered against his precious machines and experiments. Someone better call a hearse “We have need of your research. We will be taking it.” Node started screaming. “Oh, hush.” And the man turned up the stereo. Now the light bulb’s gone on The man grabbed the vial from the hands of the scientist and uncorked it. I’m not standing here He wrapped his palm around Node’s throat, letting only gurgling, gasping sounds of struggle escape. The man tipped the vial, and a single drop of the viscous fluid fell into its creator’s mouth. And there’s nothing there As the scientist’s struggle decreased, the intruder pulled a small, serrated switchblade from his pocket. He pressed it against Node’s throat and sawed. I've seen it in your eyes The results were consistent. The man stepped back, and studied the results of his work. He grinned. “Perfect.” I can see you blankly stare The police arrived the next morning. Amidst the caution tape and penlights, were the two scientists. LSB and Node were bound with duct tape, throats slit. The strangest expression on their faces. A mad, wide grin. The blood, coursing from their necks to the floor, ran jet black... Node is dead. LSB is dead. ??? the Assassin is missing. This is the intro to our story, the "before we arrived" scene, appropriately placed before we could start doing much. In it the scientist Node creates a black liquid which he calls "a monster". Known effects of the liquid: "LSB took what barely qualified as a sip" It takes a very small amount to do it's work. "he collapsed onto the floor, limbs twitching." It causes a temporary loss of control to motor functions. "Minutes later he awoke" Knocks the victim out for a few minutes, after which he seems to be just fine. "And out the blood flew. Black as night," Causes the blood to turn black. + Show Spoiler [Day 1] + On January 24 2011 11:01 Node wrote: Day 1 ![[image loading]](http://www.art-prints-on-demand.com/kunst/karl_eduard_ferdinand_blechen/stormy_sea_lighthouse.jpg) Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. Oh, how I've tried to get you out of my head. We all first met at a party in Florida. A ‘pre-sailing’ party as they said. We all applied to start a colony on an unnamed island in the Caribbeans. We were going to be heroes, the founders of a city, the explorers of the modern age. And I lied, broken words I said. As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? Never thought I'd walk on this street again. I should have known that this voyaged was cursed with bad luck from the start. Standing where it all began. A piercing scream woke us up. Where am I? What’s happening? The last thing I remember... our glasses raised, filled with dark red wine, the color of blood... a toast, a sip... A scuffle and gun shots snapped me to the present. We dove, crawled, or pulled ourselves to the nearest cover. A gurgling, gory, throaty sound forced me to see what was happening. It was outside, our ship’s nurse Korynne was on the ground, hand clutching her slit throat, black blood gurgling onto the ground. Behind her, a man dressed completely in black, knife clutched in his hand, a hole in his head. Our captain, Foolishness stowed away his gun, fell to his knees and clutched the nurse’s head. I listened as in between sobs he choked out what happened “The man... the man was following the nurse. I... You must avenge her death. He is not alone... I will be their next target. They will come after me next and… Mi Dio!” + Show Spoiler + I picked up the dropped switchblade, pressed it to the captains throat, and sawed. Korynne has died. Qatol has died. Foolishness has died. + Show Spoiler [Clues in the Night 0 post] + Note, this was the clue in the story LSB and Node were bound with duct tape This points to Qatol. "Guns make you stupid. Better to fight your wars with duct tape. Duct tape makes you smart." -Burn Notice This is in Qatol’s profile. In addition. There was a red herring in this story “...the hell? That sounds like... Spoon?” Spoon is an indie rock band. It says in Node’s profile that he listens to indie rock. Therefore, the clue points to him. There will not be many intentional red herrings, but as the stories become more detailed, there may be some. For example the intruder pulled a small, serrated switchblade from his pocket. He pressed it against Node’s throat and sawed Was not an intentional red herring, but it could possibly pointed to someone. These clues are a bit easier than the ones that will be found in normal day posts. There are no clues in this spoiler Day 1 has started. Please elect your mayor. Day one is where we come in. We apparently signed up for this colonization mission, and were treated to a party. The host brings around the drinks, and then the person in the story starts seeing things, black things, he knows something is wrong. I believe that the host of the party is part of the same group of people who sent the assassin to get Node's black liquid, and he put some of that liquid in the drinks. It only takes a small amount, so it wouldn't be hard to mask in another drink, and it's right after this that the person in the story starts seeing things. Further evidence that everyone has been exposed to this liquid is shown in that the Korynne and Qatol both had black blood. It doesn't say what color Foolishness's blood was, but I think that it's safe to assume that he has it too. (Of special note here: Qatol was the one who stole it, and is presumably aligned with the host of the party. This would indicate that the liquid has some desirable effects, or that Qatol was betrayed by his own people.) + Show Spoiler [Night 1] + On January 26 2011 11:07 Node wrote: Night 1 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/c4a9o.jpg) Sometimes I get overcharged And as the voices roared, as the crowd cheered, Kavdragon stood up on stage and flashed the peace sign. That's when you see sparks “I understand that times are hard. I understand that you are afraid. But follow my lead, and I will guide us through. For my first act as mayor... allow me to welcome my two closest friends and compatriots as my protectors. I entrust my life to these individuals.” And he summoned to the stage GMarshal and Beneather. You ask me where the hell I'm going “For my second act as mayor...” As the jaws gnashed, as the mob fought, GMarshal and Beneather brought up the struggling OriginalName and held him down while Kavdragon tied the metal noose around his head. And hung him. At a thousand feet per second Iron choking, biting, hurting. Black blood dripped out, dancing onto the floor below. Some cheered. Others hung their head. There would be no resolution. The conflict was far from over. We don’t know much. But we do know that there will be an end. We don’t know what form it will take. But there will be blood. Hey man, slow down OriginalName is dead. Slow down There are no clues in this post. Night 1 has started! You have 24 hrs to decide on night actions. Be sure to send any night actions to both Node and LSB. This day post doesn't add too much other than to confirm that we made it to the island, and decided to elect someone to lead us. (Also, more confirmation that everyone now has black blood) + Show Spoiler [day 2] + On January 27 2011 11:01 Node wrote: Day 2 ![[image loading]](http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3284/2767438546_4f50c69507.jpg) Some nights I thirst for real blood Every city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night. But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon. For real knives The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real cries And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. In real life And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. Really fills my mind I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. How fitting. You can’t hide I could get used to this black blood. TheAldo has died. Meapak_Ziph has died. Night 1 has ended. Day 2 has begun! The lynch has been opened to the general vote. At the end of the day, someone will be hung... This would imply that we have set up our small city on the beaches of the the island, and states that there is something very wrong about the woods in the middle of the island. I'm imagining LOST here. A few mysteries that are left to solve: What other effect(s) does the black liquid have? What is the real goal of sending 31 people to an island, infected by this virus? In normal games it is a common theme that the blood runs an alignment matching color. Is the virus what causes people to not flip? If so, is there a way to cure it? | ||
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Kavdragon
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His play in general is more like Merc mafia (town) than Mini IV (Mafia). He looks scummy to me now, but he looked scummy to me in Merc too. While it's certainly possible that he's just playing a different style of scum, this is a point in his favor. RoL's play is more and more reminding me of Merc maifa (mafia) however, and I'm going to put my vote for him. As much as I'm suspicious of Bum, his analysis echoes my concerns. | ||
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Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup. | ||
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On January 28 2011 10:33 SiNiquity wrote: Cause of death: Gun shots, though he fleeing the pursuit of what appears to be by another assailant. Also, was it really the gun shot, or just a coincidental juxtaposition of lyrics and story? I don't think so but a possibility. Also deemed a coward for hiding and witnessing it, but doing nothing (perhaps suggesting he was a medic, i.e. he had the power to save him but didn't I'm more inclined to believe that his throat was slit, as that's how everyone except the assassin has dies thus far. But yes, this is speculation. My original thought was that it was because he didn't post at all. That's an interesting interpretation, one that a sincerely hope is wrong. | ||
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This is a blue claim. Townies should never just sit back till there's more to analyze. If every townie did this, they would never get anywhere. If you are a vanilla townie, your play is unacceptable. If you are a blue player, you've made yourself more obvious by drawing attention to this than anyone else has by calling you out. However, I'm inclined to believe that you are NOT a blue player. Last game that you played a blue role in was Salem, if my research is correct. You were an active medic in that game, that told people what to do. This seems contradictory to what you are doing now, and makes little sense. Yes, people can change their play styles, but history has show it's usefulness before. | ||
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On January 28 2011 04:34 Kavdragon wrote: ##Vote RebirthOfLeGend I'm still suspicious of RoL, but I think that we can afford to wait on him for another day. | ||
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On January 29 2011 01:09 darmousseh wrote: I will still be voting for nemesis as the clues seem very persuasive. Unless someone comes up with something better in the next 10 hours. I'm out of luck on finding clues. I disagree with the conclusions made by Bumatlarge in his analysis of Nemesis, so this still feels like a clue lynch. I'm going to be traveling a good deal of today, but I'll try to get in better candidate for lynch. The problem for me right now is that I'm not convinced that RoL or Nemesis are scum. Nemesis' play is very similar to his normal town, which I admit is a little scummy. RoL looks more scummy because he's not contributing a ton, but as has been pointed out this could very easily be an apathetic townie, and I'm willing to leave him alone for now. The person who looks the most scummy right now is actually Beneather [facepalm, I know]. I'll explain why later, but I don't want to push for the lynch of my BG, at least not yet. Shortened version: FoS RoL, but I'm not willing to lynch him yet. Nemesis' lynch is based mostly off of clues, something I disagree with. Looking at his posts make me think he's town, but I could obviously be wrong. FoS Beneather, but not willing to lynch a BG without a very strong case. | ||
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On January 29 2011 03:19 BrownBear wrote: And it's because you're all too damn adorable  ^^Flattery. Obv scum here. | ||
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On January 29 2011 03:24 BrownBear wrote: Oh shit, I've been found out! Whatever will I do? Give me you're Goliath icon, and I'll forget i ever saw that post. | ||
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On January 29 2011 04:00 LunarDestiny wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=184939¤tpage=All Why you just post the link instead? If I'm not mistaken, the link will not work after 50 pages. This is what happens to a link like that after the limit has been passed. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=all | ||
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On January 29 2011 12:11 zerroth wrote: Oh sry about inactivity. I was busy with school. Will read asap and post something. On January 29 2011 11:52 d3_crescentia wrote: Ugh. I've been sick for the past few days. Food poisoning I think. How much time do we have? I bought the case on Nemesis a few pages back so I'll be voting him. At any rate I'll vote to stay in so town doesn't get dicked over too hard but if you guys can find another sub I'm totally willing to step out. I'm calling on our vig to hit one of these two tonight. This is totally unacceptable play. Mafia strategy is to fit in with the town. The town has a LOT of inactive players, so it makes sense for them to hid there...right until they are going to be mod killed. Medics, use the usual wifom of protecting either active townies or BG's. I suggest GMarshal over Beneather, but take your own advice and wifom the crap out of the mafia with it. DT's: I don't think that checking RoL is a particularly good idea at this point, as he would be a likely candidate for GF. We can analyse people who post, but we can't analyse those who don't post a lot. These check will both root out mafia lurkers, and encourage them to stop lurking. Examples of who you might check being Deconduo, Kenpachi, SiNiquity. Vets do whatever you can to temp mafia into hitting you. I will be checking the number of mafia tonight. We will gain no information about whether we got the lynch right or wrong because of the mod-kills, but if we don't check tonight, we won't know about tomorrow when that comes. | ||
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mason should recruit whoever HE thinks is most town. Do NOT let the recruitees have any say in the matter. You know you are town, you don't know they are town. Don't let a possible scum influence you into inviting more possible scum. Also, if possible, don't tell the recruitee who you will be recruiting. If a mafia was recruited, then they could kill both you and your pick, then start recruiting others claiming to have recruited RoL and meapak or something. Long story short, Keep your partner in the dark about the decisions you make. | ||
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Mayor doesn't get clues left because of the first day lynch, right? Or any other lynches? | ||
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I won't comment on whether that's right or not. Wifom THAT. In any case, I think that it's a good plan for the mason. I'm not going to comment too much cause I have a bias that makes me not see the best path in this case, but do people think it is a Good idea for mason to contact me, or a Bad idea? | ||
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On January 29 2011 16:24 Barundar wrote: ^I'm really looking forward to some improvements. Ugh. Wonder how I missed this. Add him to my list of "Please Vig hit". | ||
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Don't come claiming, unless of course, you are mafia. In that case, please, by all means, claim mafia to us. | ||
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On January 29 2011 17:04 LunarDestiny wrote: To follow up, if you want a hit list. That list should be containing only one person who many agrees that the person is mafia and should be hit. This way, it limits bullshit vig claim and also acts as a pseudo double lynch if that person is hit. Grr. I shouldn't try to respond when I'm tired, but here I go anyways, with part three of the response: I very much disagree with having vigs hit people who the town all thinks are scum. That makes it possible for the mafia to influence the decision. I say shoot lurkers with vig because it get rid of the mafia shield that is town bureaucracy. This pressures scum much more than a double lynch. Also, the town can't really discuss which lurker should be shot, cause by definision, there's very little to analyse. Lurkers are bad news for town discussion, so leave them to the vigs to take care of. Like I said, town can catch scum slips, but not if people aren't talking. If we can't catch a slip from the lurkers, chances are they won't get lynched. | ||
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On January 30 2011 04:14 darmousseh wrote: I think after this night we will get a ton more information. Serial killers have to kill so if we didn't lynch the SK yesterday, then there will be more clues pointing towards that person and if we did lynch the SK then yay town. No, mods said that SK will NOT get clues pointing to them every night. It would be really unfair if they did... | ||
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On January 29 2011 21:27 d3_crescentia wrote: Thanks for the analysis LD. I really hope you read the other post where I said I've been SICK with some sort of bizarre disease that causes BLOOD to erupt from my BODILY ORIFICES, but I guess I left that detail out so as to not subject yourselves to the uncomfortable facts of my life. Uh....Sick? Let's look at the time line of your posts, shall we? + Show Spoiler + Call for replacements: On January 25 2011 03:27 LSB wrote: We are looking for replacements. Please PM LSB if you are interested in playing Two hours later, you are put in: (So you obviously are active then) On January 25 2011 05:22 LSB wrote: d3_crescentia will be replacing Pandain. Deconduo will be replacing DoctorHelvetica Everyone say HI D3! and HI Deconduo! You say hi 2 minutes later: On January 25 2011 05:24 d3_crescentia wrote: I am obviously superior to Pandain. Time to read through the thread. 18 minutes later you post: (more activity) On January 25 2011 05:42 d3_crescentia wrote: It's a shame. My profile is obviously superior. Roughly 4 hours after being sloted in, you post this. On January 25 2011 09:11 d3_crescentia wrote: I'd vote for RoL if he didn't seem so lazy. Some good insight on the mayor role. I don't have a strong opinion of Kavdragon just yet, as his playstyle generally looks town. For the most part we need to ignore clues and focus on the people themselves. @darmousseh all those situations lead into a bunch of WIFOM. I'll be watching you for better posts. Aaaaaand....then you disapear with no warning, and come back OVER FOUR DAYS later to tell us that you got sick. How the hell did you not get mod killed? On January 29 2011 11:52 d3_crescentia wrote: Ugh. I've been sick for the past few days. Food poisoning I think. ... Looking at this, it is obvious that you were active when you were put in. Why would you come in if you were coming down with some sickness? You managed to stop by and vote the day after you stopped posting,+ Show Spoiler + On January 26 2011 04:15 d3_crescentia wrote: ##vote RebirthOfLegenD Skipping that - the RoL vote. I'm convinced he was town, but unfortunately we have no way to confirm that with 3 modkills. I'm willing to bet that the mafia are going to be likely to stick around for at least the first vote before dying to activity requirements. The people that immediately come under suspicion on that list are Beneather, kitaman27, Eti307. Not sure if I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Darmousseh right now either considering I think he has weak posting. I agree that RoL was likely town because of how close the vote was, and how easy it would have been to tip it in favor of a powerful player. I also agree that we (hopefully) won't know if he was or not, because of the mod kills. ("Hopefully" because the only way we can confirm that he is town is if no mafia were killed, and I'd much rather have a dead mafia then an unconfirmed RoL). I think that you are in no position to be calling people out on weak posting. I also happen to think that if we shoot Nemesis we should be able to start figuring things out on HIS vote list as well after night census. At this point in time we need as much information as we can get. No. Having a vig shoot nemesis is a terrible idea. He's posting, so we can see what he's doing, and analyse him and make the decision ourselves. We can't really do this with lurkers like you. The call for a vig to hit you stands. I'm obviously not in charge of them, but I hope I've made my arguments clear enough for them to understand, and take action. | ||
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On January 30 2011 06:14 bumatlarge wrote: what really? So how does that work? sometimes it just says someone dies? will it look like clues? red herrings?  From what i read, the clues work like this: If three people die, there will be three clues. (with the SK being a possible exception to that rule). The clues will NOT NECESSARILY be in the description of the person who died. This means that all three could be in the last person's death, or they could be spread out, or wherever. If an SK kills someone, I'm assuming that the clue will just not always be there. So for instance, the SK kills one person, the mafia kill two. There will be two clues in the day post, but they could be anywhere in the post. The important part is to remember that the clues could appear anywhere in the post, including right next to each other. | ||
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On January 30 2011 06:40 bumatlarge wrote: Man how do I miss this stuff, I thought I read this thread completely, Ill keep this in mind. To be fair, there's been a lot of confusion when it comes to clues because the hosts gave us a bunch of info on them, then said "Wait, no. We take that back, we're not going to tell you." | ||
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I'm fairly convinced that LunarDestiny is town, and I'd recommend him for a medic protect. Looking at it from the mafia's prospective, he's exactly the kind of person who they'd want to hit. He has been fairly active, and as I see it, there's absolutely no reason for a mafia to go as far as he did to point out D3's question, and the answers made by Ace and Ver. Mafia have no need to go in-depth and look at things from other games. to make a case against anyone really, much less a lurker. Oh, and in case I didn't mention it earlier, LD's post on D3's conversation with Ace and Ver is pretty damning. I'd take a look at it if you missed it. | ||
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On January 30 2011 06:58 LunarDestiny wrote: I also agree vig should not claim before shooting because it means nothing. A mafia could as well claim before shooting but it will lure dt toward his way. Alternative suggestion is if a vig really want to claim, he should claim much before the night ends so dts have a chance to check that shooter. This will greatly discourage mafia to claim vig. I didn't say I agree vig should claim before shooting. I just said if vig wants to claim before shooting, he should claim ahead of time and should not claim to be shooting in the last hour. What good does it do the town to have a vig claim after shooting? Sure a DT can check him, but we won't know the result unless he claims too, and there's no way to check him, and on and on. Not to mention that it's possible that we've lost the DT already. | ||
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On January 30 2011 07:37 d3_crescentia wrote: I find it ridiculous that you don't take my illness seriously. I find it ridiculous that you don't take this game seriously. Don't sign up/replace if you are sick, and won't be able to post. | ||
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On January 30 2011 07:51 BrownBear wrote: Dude, chill. He probably didn't know he was going to get sick when he signed up as a replacement. You're right. D3, I apologize for my flippant comment. On January 30 2011 07:37 d3_crescentia wrote: Given that your reads are usually incorrect, I'd say the probability that you're red is low, but not low enough for me to discount you. Would you mind explaining this sentance? Are you basing the accuracy of my reads off of this game or my past games? Do you know something about my "reads" this game that we don't? Also, why would me being NOT red be a reason for you to discount me? WHY lynch RoL when he was likely town and the strongest player we have? Then again that's been the most ridiculous pattern of towns in general - lynch RoL, find out he's town and then get fucked in the ass. When he hasn't been town he's generally been less lazy, but whatever - this isn't about him. Agreed. RoL should NOT have been lynched today. I originally voted that, but thought better of it and asked the town to put off lynching him till tomorrow at the earliest. Speaking of patterns - it's been town pattern to let the other dude off after Day 1 lynch and not pay attention to him until late game again. Happened with brocket last game; would've happened with Annul on Day 2 if there was no extended day. If we can see what he's doing you'll notice that he's hasn't said anything since he dodged the lynch. That's my concern now - he'll disappear now that he's no longer in danger. A valid concern. I personally think that he's not mafia because his play reminds me of his previous town play, and because there weren't very many people defending him. (Something that he mafia can afford to do in this game to a much greater extent than other games) however, I am not the entire town, and they seemed to think that he was very suspicious. Why don't you keep an eye on him, and make sure he doesn't fall off the board? If Nemesis dies, census is taken to check his alignment -> we start looking at his vote list. The only bad thing about this plan is wasting a vig shot on someone that should be dead anyway. Fact is that even when no one stepped up to actively defend him we ACTUALLY have bunch of dumb soft defends by GMarshal (who even said after some point "no one's defending him" and switched his vote to zergling) IF YOU HAVEN'T BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO THE THREAD. Soft defends are treacherous territory at any rate, so it doesn't really say anything about anyone... yet. I many people in the town thought that he might be a SK, in which case the shot would be wasted. I think that he's best left as a lynch candidate, and not a vig candidate. As for Ace/Ver - they basically confirmed that I made the right play as mafia last game, regardless of however disgusting I felt about doing so. It's lame when town kills itself out of inactivity, so if you think I'm inactive and worth a bullet then KILL me NOW. Are you over your illness? If not, you might ask about getting a replacement. If you are better, you'd better be up to posting and contributing, cause I'm not happy with inactivity, and I WILL push for the death of any who lurk or go inactive. | ||
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One, I wasn't that sure that RoL was town. I'm still not. I didn't have a good read on him, so I wanted to put off his lynch for a day. Two: There were three modkills, and we need to know if any were any mafia amongst them. Fastforward to tomorrow night. We just lynched someone, and we want to check his alignment with the census. We'll never know if that the mafia that died is from today, or the lynch tomorrow. We should be able to figure out the SK from the NK. I'm betting there's only one right now, because I think it's unlikely that he doubled a hit on Meapak or Siniquity. | ||
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It's a little sobering. It's possible that we lynched/modkilled the SK, but it's unlikely given the "inactive" killer in the day post. This means that RoL, Amber[light], D3, Tube, and Mr.Zergling were all Town. We can now analyze the voting for RoL anyways, so that's good. | ||
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MAFIA NUMBER = 5 Also, we should look at who was inactive during the night for clues about who might have been the SK... At least we can eliminate a lot of people. | ||
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On January 31 2011 06:16 GMarshal wrote: My apologies for disappearing for almost two days, my computer was broken and I was unable to get online, (on the bright side, new graphics card an ram), I'll catch up with the thread ASAP, but for now I wanted to point out that I was saved from a hit last night. That is all until I catch up with the thread Lol, and the missing hit finally shows up. | ||
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Mafia hit Gmarshal to try any get at me, D3 was probably a blue snipe? I'm actually a bit confused about that one. Roleblock BB. SK is inactive, and forgets to send in hit. It's really unlikely that the mafia would be willing to put forward two of their members to claim a hit and a role-block like that. Also, thanks to whoever saved GMarshal. You have your mayor's gratitude. | ||
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On January 31 2011 10:09 bumatlarge wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2011 08:59 LSB wrote: Sure. If you believe me. It's all in the day 3 post LSB is the SK and we have to all lynch him or town never wins. THE CLUES MEAN NOTHING. I really can't think properly. Maybe I should get a beer and just type whatever comes into my head in one post? And then I can say I'm contributing today. It's between Nemesis/Beneather/Jackal? Healthy competition. I think you need clues from more then 1 day to really get me on board with it. The all function being gone is killing my morale to really analyze and review. With RoL, it was just ctrl-f, copy-paste and type thoughts and I was formulating opinions and thoughts in about 15 minutes. Well, the next best way is to search their name in content and mouseclick-3 the numbers and read/quote from there. I guess I could give them all a quick run and ignore clues until I develop opinions. Or I can just assume Kav is town and vote whatever he does lol Dont ask me why Im spoilering all this, because it's more then likely gonna make you read this useless stuff when you might skip over plain texted paragraphs. I'll be posting more soon. Damn you. This shows how good he is at mind games. Obviously Scum. | ||
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I defended him yesterday because of his posting history, but what transpired when the votes started coming down was MUCH more suspicious than what happened with Jackal. I don't think that either are ideal lynch candidates, but it's not an ideal world. | ||
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On January 31 2011 13:56 Nemesis wrote: Well then, why don't you provide an ideal lynch candidates? To be quite honest, I have strong suspicions about Impervious, but I'm having a really hard time putting it into an argument. Essentially, My argument is that he's doing a good job of looking like he's contributing, but he's really not doing any of that. He's stirring up arguments with Jackal, and putting forth very little in the way of original ideas. But again, I'm having a hard time building the argument, so I'm frutratedly going with the lynches that the rest of the town have put on the table. | ||
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On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote: Make up your mind, woman..... First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it..... Haha, yes. That's exactly how it's supposed to go: Pressure the Mafia into posting more, analyze posting, convict, then lynch. Thank you for playing the game! So far I've passed the first stage, and I'm working on the analysis. We'll see if that leads to Conviction, or Vindication. On February 01 2011 01:57 Barundar wrote: If I had to go by clue alone I would follow LD on Deconduo/pandain, or Beneather. Deconduo lurked as mafia in PYP3. In this game he has tried to contribute, even though he haven't had too many opinions on other players. Beneather has been scummy throughout thread but is a BG... What is your opinion on Beneather Kav? He's actually been on my scum list for a little while, (I think I posted my suspicions), but I've been hesitant to push for his lynch until a much better case can be made for him. I'd rather not lynch my protection until we are certain that he's not protecting me. On February 01 2011 02:49 darmousseh wrote: That is a great pickup. I feel really bad about lynching a bodyguard though. I wonder if both bodyguards are mafia!?!?!?! Kav, what's your opinion? Beneather is suspect, but why do you think GMarshal is Mafia? | ||
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On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote: Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him. My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum. Out of curiosity, is this an FoS? Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon: There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night: Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3. Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3. Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me. Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target. Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case: Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK. If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor. Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea? + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote: ##Unvote: Nemesis ##Vote: Deconduo | ||
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On February 01 2011 04:37 deconduo wrote: Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected. I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails. Uh...What? How does that mean that Vig is Beneather? Also, I asked for the vig to hit him. LINK | ||
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On February 01 2011 04:51 deconduo wrote: Clues show beneather killed d3. If vig killed d3 -> beneather is vig. Wrong. It has been said time, and time again, that the clues are in the post, but not necessarily in the description of the victims death. There is no correlation between clues in the killing of Meapak, and Meapak's killer. IF, IF we assume that the clues point towards him, then he could be the SK as well. And I'm not convinced that the clues are being interpreted correctly. On January 30 2011 11:11 Node wrote: We googled all the information in our post, we do not condone the actions of the mafia, and find it despicable. Please lay off of our backs now. Lunar, you came to some of your conclusions based off of the hosts googleing info, right? Wouldn't they have caught that with the check they said they did? | ||
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On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote: And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG. Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him. I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia. | ||
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On February 01 2011 05:10 LunarDestiny wrote: I interpret that as: 1. We used google. 2. We do not agree with what mafia did and find the action wrong. 3. The last part "Please lay off of our backs now" is what I am struggling with. It just seems strange that they would so blatantly point to Google, if that would lead to obvious clues pointing at Decon/Beneather... Whatever, Clues are clues. The last part i took to mean that the mafia were angry with the mods for making the clues too obvious. Ooooor that they read the article about the cannibal, and were throughly disgusted with it. | ||
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On February 01 2011 05:13 LunarDestiny wrote: So according to your theory, then two night kills from mafia are missing. -I say it is likely to GMarshal is telling the truth about absorbing one hit. -Then where is the other hit? The other hit is on an SK (unlikely) or it's on me, because they thought that the first shot would kill GMarshal, and I'd be unprotected. I donno, it makes sense to me, because we gained A LOT of information with that census that they would want to deny, but I wouldn't be the best judge of whether I'm paranoid or not... | ||
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Jackal's play doesn't seem that deviant from his town play. To put it bluntly, the only thing I see going for him is the Steel clue. He is very active in the thread, so if he's scum, he'll slip up eventually, and we can get him then. Nemesis' play also doesn't strike me that different that his normal play. He's distracting the town, and looks a bit scummy, but that's the way he's played from what I remember of our games. He's also very active in the forum, so catching him shouldn't be too hard given enough time. It's the people who aren't posting that we need to worry about here. I think that we should lynch an inactive. Yes, it's day 3, but lynching an inactive is better than lynching an Active townie. Deconduo, you put out Eti307, and I think that's a perfectly fine inactive to lynch. I'm open to suggestions for what specific inactive, but I don't think that we should switch who with less than 2.5 hours left, so get thinking. To those who think Nemesis is SK, do you see any clues to him in the day 3 post? Cause I believe that everyone agrees that the SK was the one who was inactive. | ||
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On February 01 2011 05:23 kitaman27 wrote: I'm not sure I follow. Do you have additional information we do not? What would make you think the second hit is a vig? + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote: Out of curiosity, is this an FoS? Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon: There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night: Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3. Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3. Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me. Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target. Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case: Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK. If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor. Summary: Town asks for Vig to hit D3. Vig hits D3. Mafia hits GMarshal, and Me. SK is inactive. Thus, only the Vig and SK will have clues. (SK because the mods said they would) On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote: Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather? I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail. Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red. No. Lynching Beneather is a bad idea this early in the game. I will consider the possibility of GMarshal being red. On February 01 2011 06:05 CubEdIn wrote: P.S.: Kav, here's the thing: As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK. Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him). So I think clues are about the mafia. No, the mods said that there would be clues to the SK, just not every night. Also, if you read the Day 3 post, you'll find that they said that they WERE putting clues in for some person that was inactive. (Mafia don't have to hit, Vig doesn't either, BB was RB'ed and GMarshal was hit, so the only possible explination is that the SK didn't shoot. ) | ||
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Don't let the votes trickle on though. If we do this, we need to make sure we can do it, then do it quick. | ||
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On February 01 2011 08:11 darmousseh wrote: Flash on his profile. Steel in his quote. "Unknown to death. Nor known to life." on his profile There could still be clues about the SK in the day post, unless a mod has said otherwise. It's not that much in comparison to jackal58 which I why I'm voting for him tonight and nemesis next lynching day. Oh lol. Sorry, that was me being lazy, and forgetful about the day post. Scratch that argument. | ||
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On February 01 2011 08:44 Kenpachi wrote: I MEAN WHY? KILL NEMESIS sorry the idea of changing to Eti at the last second is retarded. I took precautions to make sure that it wouldn't turn into a horrible "Let the scum decide who dies" thing. But if I believe them both to be town, i'm going to try it. Obviously the town didn't say they would be support it, so I'll drop it. | ||
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Player: # of Posts GMarshal: 33 Kitaman: 73 ilovejonn: 37 Bumatlarge: 54 Papapanda: 16 Deconduo: 28 Kenpachi: 31 Coagulation: 65 Jackal58: 78 Kavdragon: 120 Zerroth: 20 Mr Wiggles: 58 SiNiquity: 28 BrownBear: 49 Eti307: 6 LunarDestiny: 94 Impervious: 35 Nemesis: 49 Divinek: 13 CubEdIn: 52 Darmousseh: 72 Beneather: 12 Barundar: 28 List is approximate, give or take 10% on the numbers. People we need to preassure: Eti307: 6 Beneather: 12 Devinek: 13 Papapanda: 16 Zerroth: 20 | ||
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[7:37 PM] Kavdragon: Hey, can I ask a few questions about the clues? [7:37 PM] LSB: Sure [7:37 PM] Kavdragon: There's been a lot of confusion, so let me start a the basics. [7:39 PM] Kavdragon: Clues lead to people that have killed someone. [7:39 PM] LSB: Excluding the day one post [7:39 PM] LSB: and the exception made in day 3 [7:39 PM] LSB: yes [7:40 PM] Kavdragon: Clues that appear can appear anywhere. For instance, a clue could appear in the victims's description. [7:42 PM] LSB: yes clues can appear anywhere in the day post (excluding blue text) [7:42 PM] Kavdragon: The SK may, or may not have a clue leading to him following his kill. [7:43 PM] LSB: SK always has a clue leading to him following his kill [7:51 PM] Kavdragon: Right so, a better clue question, I'll ask about myself. [7:52 PM] Kavdragon: Could Train be a clue, in like....: He went to the gym to train for something" [7:52 PM] LSB: No comment [7:54 PM] LSB: A tip, if you can figure out what clues I wrote, and which one Node wrote, it could be useful The highlights: Clues lead to people that have killed someone. Clues can appear anywhere in the day post (excluding blue text) SK always has a clue leading to him following his kill | ||
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Mafia: Pro:Checks to see if we hit a scum in this lynch, or if SK hit one for whatever reason. Con:If we have lynched a townie, and I think that it's a fair possibility, we waste a chance to check something like Blue roles, or the number of SK SK: Pro: We solidify a number for mafia KP. Con: We don't know if Nemesis is mafia. Blues: Pro: Gives me a good idea of the balance of the game. Con: Town gains no more info, (As I wouldn't release the number), We don't know what Nemesis is. Checking the number of SK's seems a bit odd, but shouldn't be underestimated. Knowing the exact number would be extremely helpful, and despite LSB soft claiming that there was 1 left, I wouldn't put it past him to play mind games with people who try to read into things too far. So we just don't know. | ||
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Just to be sure, If i get a report saying there are 5 mafia, then one of them dies, and I check again, it will return "4 mafia", correct? It's not the total number, including the dead? | ||
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Let's start relying less on clues, which we have apparently be pretty terrible at, and rely on behavioral analysis. That will always work. But please, before you do, read the post on who it should be done. I'm guilty of some of the things mentioned in there, but I'm new and I'm learning, so I'll try harder, and next time we'll see if I can pin a scum. It can't just be me though. We need our help. | ||
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On February 02 2011 02:59 Beneather wrote: I think it'd be smarter to get the population for Blues since we know the number of Mafia so we just minus the #of mafia to the # of players and we'll get the population of the SK. Either was is good just a thing that I wanted to pointed out.. I have been inactive because of exams.. I will be more active now. Bad logic, Mate. There are four allignments that can be checked: Red, Blue, Green, and Black. We know the total, and we know the # of red. If we check the # of Blues, that leaves us with one equation,(Total = Red + Blue + Green + Black) and two unknowns. (Black, and Green) Unsolvable. | ||
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On February 01 2011 23:16 Eti307 wrote: I'm sorry I don't have the time to keep up actively with this thread. ... If you can replace me go ahead.. if not I'll still read the thread and vote Nothing personal, but I strongly support this notion. Come back later when you have time. M Mods, do you have anyone willing to replace? | ||
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No. There's behavioral analysis behind it, not even clue analysis. It's all speculation based off the "Wouldn't it be interesting if..." It's a pointless discussion that's not going to go anywhere without behavioral analysis to support it, and right now, that analysis doesn't support it. In regards to Beneather being Mafia: Yes. It's likely that he is mafia. Yes, I regret my hasty choice, picking him as BG sucks. Remember, I screwed my self over by not realizing that the BG choices had to be submitted BEFORE I was mayor. No. We shouldn't lynch him yet. Lynching BG's this early is a bad idea, and I'm not saying that because I'm the mayor. Talking about these two will only waste time for now. Let them keep posting, and let's move our attention elsewhere for now. For at least tonight, I think we should pressure Zerroth, Papapanda, and Divinek. While I think that the posting demographic isn't super likely to have mafia in it, it's going to be the hardest demographic to analyze. If anyone else has targets to put out there, please, do so. | ||
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Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice. I'll start: DT's: Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him. Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.) Medics: Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again. Vig: My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure. Vet's: Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields. | ||
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Firstly, you are a vig. Mafia avoid them like the plague. (You still absorb the hits.) Secondly, you were almost lynched. What happened to the last guy that was almost lynched? He got lynched the next day. People are suspicious of you, regardless of how good/bad the logic is. Why would the mafia kill you? I mean, Mafia, please, by all means stack your hits on him, I think that would be fantastic. The less deaths the better. | ||
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On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote: I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda? | ||
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Number of Mafia remains: 5. | ||
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Firstly, Divinek: D3 was SK in Pokemafia and he cooperated with town. Scared the crap out of us mafia at the time. So yes, SK's CAN work with the town. It's in their best interest to work with whoever is losing. Secondly, Are we going to lynch one of the most active and actually helpful players this game? REGARDLESS of whether he is SK or not, he CAN be an asset to the town. As such we should NOT autovote him. That being said, I'm not yet convinced that Bum is actually a DT. | ||
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First, Logic: On the most fundamental level, town needs to rely on Behavioral Analysis. NOT BLUES. Ver has stressed this, and more recently BC emphasized this in his recent town-play thread. (If you don't believe me, I can post quotes.) So if we are going to check the two, we lynch the one that is less valuable, right? According to the above, Lunar is MUCH more helpful with behavioral analysis than Bum. Chances are Mafia are going to hit bum tonight. If he's right then there's a medic gone so they can stack hits to kill him (assuming two medics). In other words, if Bum is town, and not lying, then it's unlikely that he will get any more checks in. So let's review: Bum will likely die tonight, so if he's telling the truth and we lynch him, we do the mafia a favor and they don't have to use KP on him. If Bum is lying then we lose Lunar, one of the most helpful townies thus far. Of the two, just looking at logic, we take a BIGGER risk lynching LD. (Also, on a side note, IF LD was actually SK, the mafia would likely hit him for his pro-town posting. Thus, the mafia would know if he's SK. Thus Bum could still be mafia, even if h's right about the SK) Now, as I have said before, Logic and statistics won't win the game. We have to look at behavioral analysis. (Sorry, I don't have time to do a full blown analysis right now, so if someone else disagrees with me, feel free to post your analysis.) Lunar has been posting very helpful, and pro-town posts. Bumatlarge has posted some scummy plans, then shaped up a bit and started being more helpful, but on the whole still hasn't been above suspicion. On the whole, it's NOT a good idea to lynch LD. | ||
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People have cited the fact that we haven't lynched scum yet as a reason for me being scum. When RoL ran for mayor he stressed a decentralized leadership, and I agreed with that, and purposefully scaled back my involvement in directing lynches so that I would NOT be the one guy who always got who he wanted lynched, lynched. In general, I've not posted analysis as much as I would like, because I knew that if I did tons of analysis, no one else would. Entrusting me with all the decisions will ruin it for the town, so I made sure that I'm not the one doing all the work. I'm defending LD now because I don't want to see a great asset to the town go down that easily. I don't want a bandwagon forming on him that we can't get off of him. | ||
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On February 02 2011 15:07 Coagulation wrote: kav what are you doing man. are you really recommending lynching our dt over a checked sk? Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic: Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right? Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III) I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand. Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum. I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been. Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely). The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT. | ||
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On February 02 2011 23:12 CubEdIn wrote: Oh God, we did this in PYP mafia and it blew. Look, nobody is saying that bumatlarge is not scum. He PROBABLY is. But they FED us a SK. And bum's claim can easily be verified. If he is scum we have SK + 2 scum targets. I don't see how that's a bad thing. Town did this in Pokemafia and it was a nightmare for Mafia. | ||
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On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote: mmmm i think a DT's value goes up a little bit in a non flip game. Im really confused why you're trying to defend a checked SK over a DT. Sure an sk can help town out, but at this point he has been identified, he has no more need to help town because he will surely die. Well that's not true he could some how not die if town listens to retarded suggestions like keeping him alive. Your reasoning really has started to sway to making less sense, and it is of course entirely possible that you could be mafia. I don't care overly much to entertain the idea one way or another, but I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. Why would anyone else possibly finger him? Sure bum could be mafia, but even if bum was I still think lunar would be SK regardless because a mafia coming out like this would still be fairly sure of an SK. But I think it's much much more likely that bum really is a DT and lunar is almost certainly an SK. If you are scum, and you do a census tonight you could simply lie to us about the SK number and then we end up lynching our DT the next day. etc etc I explained why actually being a DT is not actually helpful to the town at this point. Mafia can, and likely will kill him before he can get another check in. I specifically asked that my bad logic be pointed out, not generally lumped up. Be specific. Any scum can generalize and give good general advice to the town. Show me where my logic breaks down. Also, why the sudden flurry of activity? You've been very inactive up till now. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I hope it continues, but why now? (More importantly, why not before?) | ||
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My Case for Bumatlarge v2.0 Contradictions, and Scum slips First off: He shows a lack of opinion as to which mayoral candidate is more scummy: RoL, or I. On January 26 2011 09:24 bumatlarge wrote: Ok then, Stupid idea. Crossing my fingers on Kav. Mostly my fault for not being here for a bit. On January 26 2011 09:29 bumatlarge wrote: Considering there is a better chance of him being red, I guess I will. Though RoL should be more vocal. Alright RoL TIME TO WIN YOU TOWNIE. Later: (After the vote) On January 27 2011 03:08 bumatlarge wrote: I suggest we put our coins in kavs korner. Meds should prot the BGs, as it gives us the best shot at winning for now. ill be around later to go more in depth and answer questions. If bumatlarge thought that i was more scummy, why would he vote for me?This vote switch shows that he has no opinion about who looks scummier. This is common among mafia, as they know that people are innocent. They don't have to really think about who might be scum, so they don't form opinions about who is scummy or not. On January 26 2011 10:32 bumatlarge wrote: You honestly don't think one of the candidates is mafia? You are just gonna sit there and vote and not say anything about what is happening? I mean if I talked about your last 5 posts, I'd have to use your /confirm post as well. What does that say. I suppose since Kav is going to be mayor, I'll put a lot more time into clues right now and then analysis later. Kav is lynching Original I assume, which I am not against with the good amount of clues found. RoL wants to kill amber, but I don't believe he is set on that. This is my first clue game, so I wasn't sure how much emphasis could be placed on them. This slipped by me, but since then, I have found Vet's condeming day one clues, I caught it on a re-read. Bum has been around for a long time, so he should know, and does knows better than to rely/put emphasis day one clues. Don't agree? See what the vets say. Bum is an experianced player, has played with these veterans many times, and has certainly heard these arguments before: Ace Ace BloodyC0bbler Ver Ver On January 26 2011 08:30 bumatlarge wrote: What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start. 2 I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute. This is another thing that struck me as scummy, but I left alone because I figured bum might have just not realized how bad of a plan it was. That was before I knew that bum has played around 15 games of mafia. He should have known, and did know how bad a plan it was. + Show Spoiler [Why it's a bad plan] + The goal is to vote someone into office that is both town alligned, and active. The process of running for mayor runs the candidates through a gauntlet of analysis, because they must submit plans, and opinions, and lots of other stuff that can be analysed. This process helps eliminate inactives, and makes it much, much harder to become mayor as scum. However, it's still possible for an talented and active scum to make it through the process without being suspected by most. With the help of the mafia votes behind him, it's possible for him to become mayor. RNG'ing the mayor has one very good benefit: It cannot be influenced by the mafia. Even vet's have said that it can be useful because of that. The obvious downside is that it's still quite possible to get a scum mayor, and it's also easy to get an inactive mayor. The problem was with the way that Bum set it up: the mafia could still influence the not so random RNG, eliminateing the main benefit of RNG. In addition, he set a deadline for the RNG process that was the same time that the votes were due, meaning that there would be no time at all to switch votes to the chossen person. The plan was also started with only 1.5 hrs till the deadline, and if it had gone through, would have caused a lot of confusion that would have allowed mafia to switch votes at the last second, and get away with it not being noticed. On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice. On January 26 2011 13:50 bumatlarge wrote: I knew I would have to extend the time if it was to hold any water, so if you legitimately think I was trying to sway it away from you in that time, I don't know what to say. Admits that the plan was a bad idea, but says that it it might have worked with a time extension. He didn't ask for a time extension when he brought the plan forward, and didn't ask for it till nearly the end of the day. Why not? On January 27 2011 10:00 bumatlarge wrote: But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. Even he agrees that his play durring that time was scummy. Scummy play from a veteran mafia player? He should know better. He does know better. On January 27 2011 14:15 bumatlarge wrote: I wanted to post it in conjunction with any clues I could connect to RoL, which people started to find before I even started the analysis. I did not make the connection before tonight, but putting that analysis together really gave me a solid lead on an already stated notion of mine. I even put my vote on RoL, so I wasn't planning this. I want to see RoL's response before I put my vote anywhere, and we have 48 hours, so I will give another tomorrow on Kav, and I forsee good things in his future. You should try this analysis stuff, it's pretty enlightening. -Kita's good friend, Bum This analysis never came. The only anlyses he has done thus far are on RoL (deemed scum), Nemesis and even here he contradicts himself: On January 28 2011 03:34 bumatlarge wrote: Nemesis Summary ANALYSIS Lurking player who poses a lot of questions and obviously has an opinion about things but doesn't go into much detail about why he has them. INFORMATION Did not like the candidates. Eventually picked RoL over Kav. I do not believe Nemesis and RoL are both red, but it is very possible. No other info on him. CLUES First day clues I found feel very weak, and I would dismiss them initially. Second day clues LD found are much stronger, and can give the first clues more solid ground to base on. I believe Nemesis is an SK. It would still make sense if he was mafia. On January 29 2011 14:03 bumatlarge wrote: By the way nemesis, my analysis of you was specifically saying you were SK and not mafia. I dont hope too hard with clues, and my analysis may be off, as you cant pin SK early without more information. but i am fairly certain nemesis is not mafia. HE IS AN SK or town. He says that Nemesis is an SK, or Mafia in the analysis, but a page or two later, he is "Fairly certain that Nemesis is not Mafia". That's not a quick turn around, that's a contradiction. On January 29 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote: let me make this clear profiling>analysis>clues in terms of where I am FoSing RoL. Not in general what is stronger. but for RoL in this situation. The profile is for my belief that mafia will take a stab at running for mayor everytime. This isn't based on the metagame or anything, its strictly that this set-up makes this obvious. The analysis comes next for the reason RoL is apathetic. As if he needs to run. I think if he was town with the same mediocre drive, we would not have run. (dont get me wrong. we needed candidates but we are assuming candidates would provide above average activity). Clues are last. I think they are much weaker then what has been found on other people. But these clues are right. becuase RoL is red. Ive looked for other connections and this is all I found. The clues arent confirming the profile, the profile iconfirms the clues. I have no comment on RoLs comparison of BB and myself. BB sees it as analysis>clues>profile, if i am not mistaken. I think we all know BB is prone to give people a chance nem is a much weaker, cles could be off, and he jst may be among the hordes of lurking townies. Maybe we have a lot blues. I think its likely given how mafia/sk favored this setup is. This post is MONEY. He has put the emphasis of his work on clues up to, and past this point. Bum stated several times that he would go to work on clues, and sometimes follow it up with analysis. He CLEARLY puts the emphasis on CLUES. But here he's stating that he believes that "CLUES ARE LAST" in order of importance! He also states that clues don't lead to the profile, profiles lead to the clues. Sound familiar? That's because RoL said the exacte opposite! On January 28 2011 17:46 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: A townie will try to link clues to players and a mafia will try to link players to clues. Cool story bro. Conclusion: Bumatlarge is a Scum at large, and is fake claiming DT to screw the town over. This is my analysis of Bum the Scum, without taking the DT claim into account. This post got too long, so I will post my analysis of his DT claim next. Believe me, it doesn't get any better. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [A few edits to the first half:] + A few minor edits and clarifications that I missed on my read throughs: On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice. I was originally using this to show bad logic, but meant to take it out becaues it's a bad example, and was probably just an emotion based mistake. Within my spoiler on why Bum's plan was bad, I stated that he started it with only 1.5 hours to go. That was a mistake on my part, there were actaully more like 3 hours to go, but doesn't change any of my analysis of the situation. On February 02 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote: Well, before things get out of hand, hold this open can of worms for me. I am a detective Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black] According to this, he KNEW that Benneather was town on day two. So i went back an checked his posts. Yes, he defends Beneather lightly by compareing him to Jackal, but really he's just dragging Beneather into the spotlight at that point. Why draw attention to him if he's clean, and we arn't considering his lynch for the time being? Then he posts this: On February 01 2011 03:01 bumatlarge wrote: :X Thats pretty ballsy. I think if both BGs were scum and mayor was not... wouldnt he be dead already? Well perhaps it might be better to wait for one to die... Still using a vig on the chance TWO people might be scum is a little risky. Better off lynching the more incriminated one, and seeing what he flips. So you suggested that we lynch someone who you knew to be town? No veteran player would do something like that. Hell, most new players would know not to do that. This made me look at the possible reasons for a mafia claiming this: Claiming that Kita is Medic: No real reason other than he's dead, and can't be checked. Beneather as Townie: This potentially clears the name of the most suspected scum. LD as SK: This makes the most sense as Mafia, and this is one of the first things that made me question Bum. The one things that has stuck with me out of all the advice I've read from the pros, is that good scum tells are the things that make sense from a mafia perspective, but not from a town perspective. Beneather wasn't going to be lynched, Kita was dead, so the only reason to claim at this point is to call out LD: If LD is SK, he wants to appear as pro-town, and he wants to kill people who are on the winning side. In this case, the Mafia are winning, so he would want to kill them. As long as his cover isn't blown, this is the logical course of action. Once the cover has been blown, he has much less reason to help the town. (It's possible for him to win, but extremely unlikely, so who knows how he might act? ) So why would an experianced townie, someone who must have realized this, call him out? this could only halt or hurt his pro-town, helpful play. In short, it DOESN"T MAKE SENSE FOR A TOWNIE TO DO THIS. If you were mafia, the town is looking pretty screwed, and the SK will have no choice but to start helping the town if they weren't before. So revealing Lunar as SK makes sense. People say that mafia can't know because all hits are accounted for. This isn't true. The town asked the vig to hit D3, and D3 died that night. We assumed it was the mafia, but there was no logical reason for them to hit D3, it would be much better to hit the vocal persons in the town: Lunar and Me. So they hit lunar, and GMarshal that night. Lunar didn't need to claim the hit, because a vig covered for him. Think about it, why would the mafia hit D3? Yeah, he had a list, but he wasn't a big voice in the town, and his death only drew attention to that list. It makes no sense for the mafia to hit D3. It makes perfect sense for a Vig to hit D3. Conclusion, we have our missing hit, and the mafia know who the SK is. It has already been pointed out that he reported Beneather as Vanilla Townie. Why would you translate Townie Bodyguard in to Vanilla Townie? Slip up? It seems odd at the least. If necessary I can back this up with Blue Based information, but I'd rather not give out any information about blues that I don't need to. I will say that I'm in the Mason circle though. | ||
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I'm also going to say that I'm not convinced that we should lynch Bum today. There are good arguments out there for lowering KP, so if the town needs to lower it, then they can lynch the Lunar. I would be against this if he's willing to cooperate. It makes more sense for mafia to make this high risk fake dt claim to kill a SK than an active townie. So while the possibility is there, it's not a very big one. So to reiterate: Bum is Scum, LD is probably SK. I'm not decided on which we should lynch. I haven't done the math yet, but if the town needs a few more days, then lynch LD. Otherwise, this game is about killing scum, not SK's. | ||
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On February 03 2011 12:40 Barundar wrote: Interested in hearing from lunar now. I guess kav's insistence on a non claiming vig is explained now. That might just have tricked both me and the mafia. Kav obviously you and the mason group will have a whole lot of information more than the rest of the town, and while im fine with you not sharing anything, i want you to not turn this into a mason group deciding and a town following like sheeps. Hence i would like the discussion of what to do for the lynches to continue in the thread. The best choice of action is in my opinion to kill off lunar tonight to reduce kp. The only alternative would be to lynch a mafia now and give lunar orders on who to kill tonight. But this would require us to hear from lunar, and be certain of 2 mafia. Bum and beneather or what? Got a third suspect? Opinions from people? Firstly, I have to be honest: The evidence I have is not irrefutable. It only supports my findings. I say this so that when that information is revealed, (if it's revealed), you don't feel betrayed by me and the others in the circle. I absolutely agree with not letting the decision making process be left up to the circle. We are not infallible, and we cannot be absolutely sure about each other (other than the original mason). I tried to build my arguments off of public information to the best of my ability, and hopefully people can see that Bum is indeed Mafia. I see no reason to not include the town in any decisions, so I will keep the discussion out here. I agree with you that LD should be lynched tonight. Lowering KP will be good. It's important to note though, that if he is indeed SK, then this in NO WAY clears Bumatlarge. However, there's more than meets the eye with the "Should we lynch LD" debate. I've recently started looking into Insane Mafia, and LD was a third party in a position much like this, where the town was very far behind. His response was to kill mafia. This should have been pointed out by those who played in that game. FoS on those who let that sit, as it's important history that should have been mentioned. CubEdIn, you especially should have let us know about this instead of telling us that the SK would turn on Bum. You brought up PYP, why not Insane? There's no telling if he will do the same thing, as player's styles vary, and it was insane, so I'm still of the opinion that we should lynch him. But Insane should have been brought up. | ||
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On February 03 2011 09:59 bumatlarge wrote: If I make an analysis, I do want to take in their good points as I did with Cube. I don't think your method is better. Wrong, and you should know better. Mafia do good stuff all the time, and when they slip up, you have to be there to point out the slip. You don't spam the thead with the hundreds of good posts that someone has, you point out the parts that are bad. Similarly, you don't point out every little scummy thing that a person did, you only point out the important parts. As mafia, one of the tactics I picked up was analysing every post that someone made. This made the posts hoplessly long, and even if i analysed my scum buddy, no one could stand to read through it. You do NOT need to post everything in an analysis. Ver on Long Analyses Wow, Kav you are really putting your rep on the line for this one. Someone suggests hitting you with a vig to check BGs. If yous suspect both BGs that much, then a much cleaner solution is lynching one of them and seeing if mafia is reduced after. I didn't even mention beneather there. Um...Re read what you said. You said we should lynch the more "incriminated one" of the two Bodyguards. The "incriminated one" is obviously Beneather. I never said I suspect GMarshal, and I don't suspect him. KEEPING SK ALIVE IS WHAT MAFIA WANTS. What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case. Node clearly states that somebody did not send in their action for that night. There were two confirmed hits that night. GMarshal, and D3. Vig hits D3, Mafia hit LD and GMarshal, SK is inactive. Make sense now? Again and again you make claims about things that are not true. Things that you should know better about. Maybe one of the was an honest mistake, but all of them? What are we supposed to think!? This is the obvious lynch for tomorrow. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Is that a reference to This Post, by any chance? | ||
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... ... I really hope it's a puzzle of some sort. | ||
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It was one of the first things I tried, but I messed up the cypher. Cool, that confirms what I suspected. | ||
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A is night 1. B is night two, and C is night three. The first translates to TheAldo, the third to Deconduo. (The second is blank cause he didn't submit an action) This is what I suspected, as Lunar was hot on Deconduo's tail right before he died. It also explains why the mods were so unhappy with him not posting hit night kill. He was active only 3 hours before. The link to Qatol's profile is likely a hint at clues. Qatol was the clue guine pig, and also the only clues that we were given the answer to. My guess is that the prize for figuring out his message is information on which clues are his. (Mods might have told him what linked to him) | ||
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If he was hit than the vig had to have hit on night two. This would be a major point against Bumatlarge, and extremely helpful for the town. Please, tell us if you got hit night two. | ||
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On February 04 2011 04:38 Kavdragon wrote: LunarDestiny's message is his kills. A is night 1. B is night two, and C is night three. The first translates to TheAldo, the third to Deconduo. (The second is blank cause he didn't submit an action) This is what I suspected, as Lunar was hot on Deconduo's tail right before he died. It also explains why the mods were so unhappy with him not posting hit night kill. He was active only 3 hours before. The link to Qatol's profile is likely a hint at clues. Qatol was the clue guine pig, and also the only clues that we were given the answer to. My guess is that the prize for figuring out his message is information on which clues are his. (Mods might have told him what linked to him) Should have read this before I posted. "The link to Qatol's profile is likely a hint at clues. Qatol was the clue Guinea Pig, and the clues pointing to him are the only ones we've been given the answer to. My guess is that the prize for figuring out his message is a list of the clues that were about him. This would give us a big help in finding more clues, and also stop us from using his clues to pin some innocent." | ||
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It's a stretch, but it's possible. If so, then we have two three mafia. The person who claimed RB on the night that he was RB'd, Bumatlarge, and Beneather. Again, this is perhaps too far a strech, but it was so funny at the time I decided to post it. | ||
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Would a townie bodyguard show up as Townie or Bodyguard? | ||
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Bumatlarge has been analysed, and he's been found Scum. Beneather has been analysed and found Scum. BrownBear has NOT been found to be scum. Lynch Bum, SK beneather. Again, LD. The evidance is against Ben and Bum, not Brown. | ||
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Bumatlarge Hah! Bum at Large is a Scum at Large! Bum is Scum! Bum is Scum! I can finally shout that! | ||
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I want Bum Dead. I want Ben Dead. I don't care how it's done, because I personally believe that LD will shoot for us. | ||
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He's the guy I'm sure about. More so than Beneather. (note, I'm still pretty sure about Beneather, I was just really freaking sure about Bumatlarge) To further evidance, we now have conclusive evidence that he LIED to us about what the Bodyguard showed up as. He specifically said that it's Townie Bodyguard After he was asked to clarify! Bum is the most obvious scum, so we kill him with the most definite method: Lynch. | ||
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Now, before we go off in a panic, let's recap what we do, and do not know. LD is SK, and has decided to help the town at least in this case. Bum is scum, (Caught lying about the result of a DT claim) and will be lynched. Beneather is Scum, (caught lying about RB, and had his name cleared by scum), and will hopefully die to the SK's bullet. Based off of public information, we do NOT know that BrownBear is scum. Lunar, I know he tried to kill you, but that doesn't mean he's scum. If you want to build an analysis against him, that's fine. Is there another reason that you want to kill him? | ||
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Did you NOT read my post where I specifically called out analyses like these as been scum? Look, I bet that 1, maybe two people read the entire thing. You do the town a disservice to post things that long. Do I need to bring up my Ver quote where he talks about analyses not needing to be Every Freaking Post? That being said, I read up till you forgot your quote tag, and I gotta say, it was a good read. I was actually thinking of doing an analysis of BB next, but then I got to read your analysis. I'm now more convinced that he's town than I was before. Look, I don't mean to harp on a newer player, but you use some pretty awful logic in it. I'll go over it to point out at least a few examples of what I mean. If you are town, I'd highly suggest reviewing my argument with Bum about analyses. Find the link to ver's post on analyses and read it. You need to. Also, BrownBear, there are some good things in there, but one important thing that needs to be said, is that Bad Logic is Bad logic. Not necessarily scummy logic. Same thing with plans. Bad plans/logic are scummy when that are bad in a way that only benefits Mafia. In general, Bad =/= Scummy. It's only scummy if it's bad in a way that benefits only Mafia. | ||
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Dear Coag, I heard about you when I was just starting to play. People tole me you were un-readable, and best ignored. I really didn't understand what they meant by it. Now I know, and I really wish I didn't. You hurt my brain. On a more serious note, could you contribute, pretty PLEASE!? I really don't expect much from you other than a comical play by play one-liner commentary on what's happening, but town could really use some help, not one-liners. At the very least, stop posting so much. You'll only help the mafia snowball things. -Your friend**, Kavdragon. + Show Spoiler + **if you are scum, you are not my friend. Unless you come clean and tell me everything. In that case we can still be pals. | ||
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On February 04 2011 08:29 Kenpachi wrote: ##Unvote LunarDestiny ##Vote Bumatlarge Would you mind explaining where you were this whole time? Last post you told our medic to protect Bum. That was a long time ago. If you were active enough to vote, why not let us know what you thought? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + My Case for Papapanda Papapanda has been at the back of my mind for a while for generally scummy play, but he's been inactive so I'm not reminded of him very much. This changed once I build an inactives list for myself, so I decided to analyse him. Two things stuck out to me about his posting this game. One, he has been very hesitant with his posting, constantly refering to the fact that he's new, and generally hasn't stuck his head out. Two, he contributes very little in terms of content or opinions. A large portion of his posts are simply questioning the ideas of other players, or postulating about things that are irrelevant to this game. I originally thought that this could have been because he was new, but after re-reading some of Ver's posts, I realize that this is exactly the sort of thing that makes this case STRONGER, not weaker. Here are a few posts highlighting his timidness, and + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2011 12:17 papapanda wrote: my thoughts are the first day clues are just an example of how the clue would be like for new players(like me:D) and are pointing towards people outside the game(like Qatol, LSB, Node...etc) In other words, not really relevent to ON? On January 23 2011 16:27 papapanda wrote: I've not been in the mafia scene long enough to understand some of the old rivalry and whatnot im guessing thats what bum is about because divinek didnt post yet?(followed mafiaXXXV[big fan of pandain;P]) Afraid i won't be much help with this clue also, have absolutely no idea. But yeah, im wearing a kav for prez button! ooh...catchy On January 26 2011 19:04 papapanda wrote: In the night 1 post, it said no clues are in that post, yet black is bolded...does this sort of mean that the bolded words in day post are also not clues? Very timidly put. He doesn't even give his own opinion on the matter. I hope im not sounding overly negative of Kav's decision but i would've picked either of bum or bb to kill based on what he had done rather than on clues(that might not have even be relevent). Finally he states an opinion, but it's so timidly put that I'll bet no one ever considered it seriously twice. But I understand that this was first day so there was not much to base analysis upon(ON didnt defend himself at all, that's probably why he was killed over the other two ). Btw i don't like the timing of the turns(of day/night), seems like i'm in the wrong time zone(missing all the periods when most people are on) also ill try harder to boost post counts He gives an excuse for not posting very much, but he blames it on time zones? Also, he's defneding himself well before people were attaking inactives. This is very typical of people who have something to hide. Ver's thoughts on this sort of play. (This can be found in Ver's analysis of Mafia XXX) + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote: -Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it? On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times. Further, Papapanda has contributed very little in the way of opinions or insights that are useful to the town. His posts usually do not contribute anything of value, and he often states things that are wrong. This post is indicative of many of his posts. On January 24 2011 12:54 papapanda wrote: If an SK becomes the mayor (SK cannot be night killed) it wouldn't really who becomes a body guard. just an interesting point I would like to point out. No one ever thought I was SK, so why bring this up? Can there be more than one SKs ? I'm assuming so that would mean potentially(assuming mafia KP is 2-4 and there vigilant kills on night 2) there can be 4-6 deaths on night 2:D Asks a dumb question, w/e, and makes an estimate that is so broad that it can't be wrong. In essence, it looks like he's giving an opinion on KP, but doesn't say anything really. Yeah, basically, I'm just saying mayor is important role and should not be traded for a scum life. and BTW first day clues does not point to anyone in the game, i believe. [red]Repeates what has been said up to this point, says something that is obviously wrong about clues, and doesn't give a real opinion yet again. | ||
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Here are some numbers: Goal: Lynch 1 SK, and 2 Mafia. Secondary Goal: Keep as many people alive in the process as possible. CubEdIn's Plan:
Kavdragon's Plan:
You're plan was a good plan before everyone could be convinced that Bum and Ben were scum. Before LD started talking to us again. In fact, your plan is still probably the best if we assume that LD will work against us. But both his history and his posting showed that he will likely hit our target tonight, so I called for Bum to be lynched. | ||
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On February 05 2011 03:56 LunarDestiny wrote: I asked the mod to retire me after shooting Beneather tonight (punishing mafia for setting a damn dt/fake roleblock trap for me). So there is high possibility that you guys don't have to worry about my lynch tomorrow. Good lord. Remind me NEVER to piss you off as Mafia. That's pretty brutal. Thanks, it will help a lot. (If it actually happens.) | ||
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My opinion on what Blues should do: Medic(s): Protecting GMarshal is a good plan for tonight. I've not done a full analysis on Barundar, but he seems pretty pro town, and his analysis of Kenpachi looks good to me. He's a good alternative, imo. DT(s) Kenpachi would be a good person to check tonight, for the reason that Barundar's case is strong, but not perfect. He will likely be one the lynch targets tomorrow, so I think it's a good idea to check him. Vig(s) Previously I asked for hits to pressure people who weren't posting enough. Most of those people are dead now, and we don't have a strong enough case on anyone else to my knowledge. I suggest saving your shot. Mason: If there's another one of you out there for some reason, recruit me please. I think that we could gain a lot if we combined our circles. (Chances are there's only one, but hey. Doesn't hurt to try...) | ||
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On February 05 2011 04:04 CubEdIn wrote: Kav, I understand that perfectly well. But to say that I'm scum because I didn't change my vote, even though I said I'll be going to sleep due to schoolwork, is kind of a stretch. And I'm not talking about you, but at least two people accused me of that. Meh. Anyway. If mods dismiss LD these would be like.. the best 24 hours that town had in this game by far. I agree. The only reason someone would keep their votes on LD was because they were away. It means nothing if they voted LD. If they were mafia, they would have seen the inevitability of bum's lynch, and bussed him. I don't expect to gain a lot of information from his bandwagon, but looking at who was supporting what without giving reason...That should help us. In addition, we might be able to do something with clues at this point. Analysis is still first in my book for a conviction, but five days of clues is bound to bring up something worth looking into. | ||
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The game is about having fun, it's about a battle between two sides. When one side becomes really broken, it's no longer fun. I know you can give good analysis, and I'd bet you could direct us in the wrong direction if you were really clever. It will be hard, especially because of every one's awareness at this point, but if anyone's up to the challenge, it's you. You've been in this position before, and I'm sure it's discouraging to be third party again, but it's only fair to give it your best shot. What do you say? | ||
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On February 05 2011 07:10 bumatlarge wrote: ... It's a shame that I'm still an element in the game so I can't idly comment, but most people here need to develop a different mind-set when playing mafia. You can play SC to win or you can play to get better. Same goes with mafia. It's as if half the people I play with are making the game the be-all end-all of the mafia careers. I'm not referring to meta, but to how you improve your play and how you reap the rewards of your improvement. And it's not LD i'm talking about. If you are refering to me, please talk to me after the game and show me where I've gone wrong. It was not my intent to play like that, and I'd hate to make the game less fun for anyone. Sorry in advance for anything inappropriate or harmful I've done. | ||
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On February 05 2011 11:38 Kenpachi wrote: woah! 2!?  bow down to KavdragonLol, I can only take credit for two of them at most, and non of them at worst. They lied, and got caught. Kind of a cheep victory. | ||
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So...yeah. Lynch LD. | ||
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Also, in my experiance, arguments like this one are usually between two townies. Just because you want to kill each other doesn't mean that the town is going to waste it's KP doing that. | ||
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On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: Day 4 ![[image loading]](http://ciaran-walsh.com/images/Kosinski/H3/halo_1.jpg) Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away; That picture is from the first Halo 3 advertisement. I actually recognized it right away, but failed to make the obvious connection to Beneather's profile pic... | ||
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Remember how I wrote a "My case for Bum" analysis? I wrote a "Dear Impervious" analysis soon afterwards. Remember how I revisited with "My case for Bum v2.0"? I'm writing a "Dear Impervious v2.0" now. Guess I just need to be more confident and push harder for a lynch with my FoS's. | ||
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Looking forward to a lively discussion with you. GL. | ||
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Dear Impervious: v2.0 IN TWO PARTS! + Show Spoiler [Clues! Good ones, I think!] + I haven't had much time these past few day because of school, but I managed to look back over the clues from the past days. I've been looking at the all wrong, and nothing has seemed to work out very well, but after reviewing some of the stuff in the other clue game LSB ran, I think I have a better idea of how they work. On January 27 2011 11:01 Node wrote: The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real cries And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. It has already been pointed out that this sounds like a Zergling. Within SC2 books, Zerglings are often described as being the size of "deer", so that makes sense. A scream no animal can make? Fits. All the descriptions seems to work well. On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: I made my way into the caves, and saw all that I needed to see. On the edge of the light, ilovejonn’s body sprawled on the floor. A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before. “I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,” it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared. Further evidence of a zerg burrowing. More evidence that it's an alien. Pretty sure it's a zergling at this point. Now, what could the zergling refer to? No one who is alive has any reference to zerglings, except for maybe Impervious's post icon, but icons can change as the game goes on. Heck, even mine has changed this game. His will change as soon as he hits.... Oh wait. Huh. That's strange. Impervious' posting icon seems to have been permanently set to a zergling. + Show Spoiler [Post Analysis!] + Well, I've never been one to lynch off of clues, so let's take a look at your posting! On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. This was a defense of Bum, and a suggestion of several scummy ideas: lynching people who voted for me, Random lynching for the first few days... In general, a display of poor logic that benefits Bum On January 27 2011 10:16 Impervious wrote: Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. Support of the whole push for looking statistics, something that was spearheaded by Bum On January 30 2011 12:18 Impervious wrote: Frankly, if you've ever read through that, you'd find that it's actually more fucked up as the connection you're trying to make here is..... I definitely think there's something up with Jackal58 though. "Steel", "Black", and relatively inactive which may indicate that he was the one that the clues are about? The first of many posts supporting Jackal's "Steel" clue, something that I believe was part of a concerted (and quite successful) effort by the mafia to help the town look at the clues the totally wrong way. It's not word matching game, it's clue game. I'm not entirely sure why it took me this long to figure that out, but it's pretty obvious now. On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: (My first "Dear Impervious" letter) tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... Generate more discussion, Eh? So that would explain why you disappear for the next FIVE pages, post three one liners, then disappear for another TWELVE PAGES? Lol, fail scum. (But really, Fail me for not noticing that earlier) On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote: Make up your mind, woman..... First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it..... On January 31 2011 14:14 Impervious wrote: PS - if you can't tell, there's a bit of sarcasm and dry humor in my post. Unfortunately, it doesn't come across as well as it would in a face-to-face conversation - there's only so much that text can convey..... This came across as very odd to me at the time, but I never really thought much about. Why would someone feel the need to make is so clear that he was being sarcastic? It comes off seeming like something that a very nervous person would do. Why would a townie be nervous because of a light FoS from me? Unless he wasn't a townie, and i was dead on the money with what I was saying... On February 01 2011 05:22 Impervious wrote: If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of..... Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite? And then we're in a WIFOM situation..... While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet. Wait. Remember when I posted my first analysis of you? And you disappear for like, 17 pages? Huh. You bring up very good points for me, friend. On February 02 2011 14:33 Impervious wrote: Think about it - look at how people have been voting, look at how the clues have been leading us in the wrong direction..... Does it really make any sense that we haven't had a single fucking Mafia kill yet? There's something fishy about vig and SK hits not hitting a mafia at all (especially since any decent SK would be thinking that the mafia is winning, and therefore try to kill scum instead, and the clue last night really signals that a vig made a hit). The only way that could make any sense (without some extreme luck by the mafia) was if the mayor was lying to us. And if he was, it would be very, very easy to turn us against the wrong people..... Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. I remember you saying this earlier, in response to my first analysis: On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. So whatever happened to that other method of analysis? You know, the real kind? Cause you're sure not doing any of it... I could keep going with the rest of his posts, but I'm tired, and already convinced. If you aren't I'll continue, but I think between the clues, and the posts, this should be the obvious lynch for today. | ||
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What do you think? | ||
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Impervious: Would you mind replying to my points? Or are you afraid that I'll just take your counter arguments and show everyone how scummy you are like I did with Bumatlarge's responses? Still you gave me a little bit to work with... On February 07 2011 00:34 Impervious wrote: You conveniently forget about stuff like this: Yes, I've mentioned this before. I don't go around showing all the good things that people do. Scum look good until they slip up. You point out the slip-ups, not the good posting/voting And we ended up doing exactly this, allowing us to get 2 freaking mafia members overnight. I'd be a terrible mafia player if I was suggesting things like this..... Not to mention I was one of the first to switch my votes to a mafia member..... Yes, this is called busing. It's laughable that you try to take credit in their lynch, when they were both 80% scum in the eyes of the town right then. Isn't it funny that Bumatlarge decides that he's going to die RIGHT after you post that? Almost like you were busing him... I already saw the exact "clue" you saw in me by that point..... And I pointed out some decent logic as to why we shouldn't lynch Beneather (in case we were wrong). As soon as it was confirmed that he was a mafia, and we weren't gonna lynch LD, I was one of the first to switch to voting for him..... I was playing very smart for a mafia, right? ..... Really? You're pointing the fact that you were mafia, and voted against a confirmed scum? And that would be bad mafia play? No! That's exactly what mafia would do. When there's no chance of saving a scum buddy, you are the first person to vote for them Yes. The clues definitely looked like they pointed to Jackal..... That clue was brought up by Coagulation: Yes, I'm not saying that you made up the clue, but you pushed it. That's what mafia like to do, right? Snowball stuff like that? So are you suggesting that it's gotta be me and Coag (nemesis also played a part iirc, and he was already confirmed to be a non-red) as the last 2 mafia? Cause I wasn't the only person who thought it was a decent connection..... And I voted for Coag earlier on..... Really, if you think you're so good at analysis, how come you really fucked it up here? I was not one of the people who started the bandwagon..... Plus, I didn't stay on Jackal - a "better" option came up (who ended up being a greenie, unfortunately). lol, Coag is Coag Nemesis was the other lynch candidate. Of course they are going to push those clues. Also, Coag is dead, as you very well know. It's not to say that I'm not still suspicious of Jackal, but, recently, there's been better options to vote for. Right now, it's LD so we can make the game go on as long as possible. Agreed. I'll push for you tomorrow. Also, about the RNG mayor - any mafia would want to snag your position..... The rest would be vying for a spot as a bodyguard..... Of course I think it's a better idea to get someone randomly for the position (assuming the mafia try for the position harder than the average townie, since they want the position more, they're more likely to get it). From a statistical point of view, we're less fucked. And you freaking picked a mafia as bodyguard yourself..... It doesn't exactly help your case there..... So, another point about the scummy RNG mayor? It's logic is "Scum would own if they had this, so chances are they will try to get it." What about the rest of the town? You know the other 21 people that should realize this and say "If scum got the mayor, we'd be screwed if they got it. Better try for it. Personally, think that the reason that this keeps coming up is because the scum didn't realize that they should run for mayor until it was too late, and they wish they had. So they are taking the consolation prize of being able to FoS people who ran/distract the town. Of course I don't think you're a mafia anymore. You ended up snagging us 2 red kills. Sick job. But it'd be a waste of a lynch on me..... But, of course, you won't figure that out till we win, or you end up lynching me anyways..... Meh, I dont' really feel like analyzing more of this BS right now..... I'd like to see you start. | ||
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That last line came off a bit harsher than it needed to be. The point I was trying to make was that nothing of what you did was analysis. It was a redirection of attention away from the posts that I brought up, to posts that you wanted people to see. A defense, but not an analysis. | ||
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If you actually want us to consider lynching the other, consider doing some behavioral analysis. Cause I will use whatever sway I have with the town to stop it from lynching based off of clues like you two are trying to do On February 07 2011 03:03 Jackal58 wrote: Impervious isn't scum. Cubed's partner in crime is Divinek. Only scum would freak out like he did at the prospect of keeping LD alive one more day. There plan never considered town using LD to off another scum at night. No, at this point I think that it's pretty obvious that town is now in the lead. LD will start helping the mafia now. He may have been neutral with 3 mafia left, but with 2, the town is certainly in the lead. He helped us get into this position, and I'm grateful for that, but the best play for town is to lynch LD. | ||
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Oh, and one more bit of information I was given: The mafia tried to role-block me last night. Yeah, I know, it can't be done, so why try? On the other hand, this does prove that GMarshal is town...if anyone was still doubting. (I didn't say this earlier, because I wasn't told earlier) Don't get too distracted trying to figure out what that means, but who knows, It might be helpful. (Also means that the RB'er is still alive) | ||
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On February 07 2011 12:13 zerroth wrote: mafia count this night kavdragon Submitted. | ||
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Is there anything that the town really needs to know? We have the # of Mafia (Providing there aren't any more modkills tonight), and we know that there aren't any more SK's. That leaves Blues/Greens. Would anyone object to my using it to my own ends tonight? Oh, btw. I kind of doubt there are any DT's at this point, but would you please claim if you are? Your information would be most helpful. I'm afraid that there's no real point for vig hits at this point. I'd rather you save your shot, so that no one important dies. I'd tell you who not to shoot, but that would just give the mafia a list of who to kill, so....Sorry, but I don't see it helping at this point. | ||
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On February 08 2011 04:43 Jackal58 wrote: If we're playing a game with clues I have to believe the clues carry more weight than analysis. This is rapidly becoming paralysis by analysis. -_- On February 14 2010 12:16 Ace wrote: We should NEVER rely on clues are our primary weapon for catching Mafia. Remember they are based on interpretation NOT fact. This is why I said it DOES NOT MATTER how many more people in the game are Mafia, it's always going to come down to guesswork. At the very least we can focus on behavior. Look at all the people vying for clue work when it's an easily acceptable fact by anyone that has played before that it's a bad idea. On February 08 2011 04:48 Jackal58 wrote: I have no objections to you using census for whatever purpose as long as you share the info Eh....no. I'm not going to promise any sharing of information. Not publicly anyways. | ||
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If I die, then we know that they are mafia. There's absolutely no good reason to check them at this point. That was one of the things that tipped me off about Bum. Why would he check Beneather? If I die, he's mafia. Waste of a check. There is so much evidence to the contrary that it's not worth considering 2 SKs. The chances of stacking hits that long, that often...Sorry, no. On recent deaths: I'm hoping, and praying that Coag wasn't the medic. Whoever is medic, if you are still here, please protect GMarshal. I'm similarly hoping that Beneather was the roleblocker. If you get RB'ed tonight, please claim it asap. If you get hit, and survive, please claim it asap. | ||
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Lynch this scum. With Gmarshal gone, I'm the obvious next one to go. If there was ever a medic in the game, I could use protection. | ||
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The mods apparently mis-worded the OP, where is says that I cannot be targeted by the Role-blocker. I just found this out too. I've argued the point with the Mods, but they've come to the conclusion that the mayor would be too powerful if he could not be roleblocked. I'm not happy about it, but they are the mods. As i've said, I'm too busy with school to do any good analysis right now, but it's about time the town stepped up and looked into it as well. I've suggested Impervious for the lynch. If you don't think he's mafia, go through and read his posts. Just read them if you don't have time to analyse them. He's heavily connected with known Mafia, and has yet to contribute any thing of note. He fits the bill for mafia quite nicely. I've also provided a decent clue pointing to him. If you aren't convinced, that's fine. With two mafia, and ten town, we can afford a mislynch or two. Here's what needs to happen: Inactives need to be pressured. We can't afford to have mafia hiding among them at this point. Everyone needs to be posting lots. This late in the game, it's really hard for mafia to post without contradicting themselves. If you don't find Impervious guilty, then I'd strongly recommend Zerroth, DivineK, and Mr.Wiggles be lynched (in that order) unless they can show some contribution that would change our minds. Again, we have a few lynched before we NEED to get a kill. My suspect list: Impervious Kenpachi Darmousseh Not Jackal As far as clues go, it would be a good idea for people to go through and figure out what clues there are, and which of them refer to dead people. Then see if you can pin the others onto someone. | ||
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Funny you should mention that picture. It comes from the same wiki project that the picture found in the main post comes from. AMSU Health... Also, on the subject of clues, remember all the dog clues? http://www.divinek-9.com/ Wouldn't it be funny if they weren't all pointing to Beneather, who so obviously has a dog on his profile? | ||
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On February 09 2011 01:39 Jackal58 wrote: I know. That's where I was looking. I also googled Divinek and got all the dog references. But I've been told clues are useless. Please don't take what I'm saying to mean that Clues are useless. I'm only saying that clues should not be our PRIMARY method for catching scum. Mafia can very easily influence clues. Mafia can't easily influence good analysis. Behavioral analysis is the best tool we have, clues can help that tool, not supplant it. | ||
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I'm a Medic. I'm the one who protected GMarshal night 2, and the one who protected him last night. I thought that mayor couldn't be roleblocked, but that's no longer the case(?). The census ability cannot be RB'd, Medic'ing can. When I was told that the mafia RB'd me yesterday, there was a misunderstanding. I took it to mean "they attempted a Roleblock" while in actuality, it actually succeed. So I never thought to question my un-blockability. | ||
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LSB: Oh yeah I forgot to tell you but you were roleblocked last night KAV: Hahahaahah. LOL. Really? LSB: You claimed medic ofc Kav: Wait. Did I actually claim that? LSB: didn't you? KAV: I wasn't sure if I posted that message. LSB: uhh KAV: I typed it up like...three times. LSB: oops Kav: But ended up not saying it. LSB: W/e KAV: You told them did you? LSB: Yo I thought you posted it | ||
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Well, I'll try to contribute as much as I can today, and leave all my information with a townie. At least I can protect the townie for one more night. | ||
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On February 09 2011 04:50 Impervious wrote: So, unless we get a good lynch tonight, or there happens to be a 2nd medic in the game, we lose both the medic ability and the census..... Not good..... Why would getting a good lynch matter, out of curiosity? | ||
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On February 09 2011 05:37 CubEdIn wrote: Kav, may I ask how mafia would know that you were medic? You have been role-blocked twice in a row now, so they were most likely sure about that. Did you claim to anyone before you claimed to town? Note that it's not possible for DT to check you while you are mayor, so the information must've come from you. + Show Spoiler [Read the thread] + On February 09 2011 04:33 Kavdragon wrote: Like I said. Mafia know that I am medic, so there's no reason not to tell the town. I considered trapping the mafia because only they would know I'm Medic, but decided that would be BM. It's not their fault I was mod confirmed as Medic. I was all sorts of confused when Kav said we need to only kill one mafia (I was thinking he has DT check on one of the two), but if this is what he meant, then no, we need to kill both mafia. If there's another medic left, part from Kav, do not claim. Mafia still has role-block, obviously, so protecting each other won't work. The OP said that I couldn't be RB'd, so I could save GMarshal every night, and with mafia KP at 1, they could never kill either of us. This means that there would always be two townies, and the only way for them to win is to be the last two left with GMarshal and I. They would have to quick vote for one of us at that point. Thus if we kill one of them, we win. Since then, the rules have changed, meaning that this wouldn't work. | ||
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![[image loading]](http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r1rYeLfwy60/TRnRROjBj0I/AAAAAAAAAcQ/X_sUd1t_qkg/s1600/iv_bag.jpg) Also, D-IV-INE. How's that for a giant stretch? | ||
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Omg! Good clue! | ||
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Out of curiosity, why did you assume that there was a second medic? | ||
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I'm not convinced that impervious is town, based off my analysis, but no one has defended him, and that strikes me as odd. I think that everyone agrees that DivineK is scummy, (Including himself, oddly enough, but I'll save that for my analysis.) I'd much rather lynch him atm. | ||
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IF YOU THINK IT'S TOO LATE TO SWITCH THE VOTE, IGNORE THE REST OF THIS. This is what I'm thinking. We can afford a mis-lynch or two. The best place to hid as mafia is among those who do not give opinions, or suspicions. Those people are the hardest to analyze, so let's get rid of them to make sure the mafia aren't hiding among them. Zerroth and Divinek are the two main ones that come to mind. While it would be nice to lynch scum today, it will be safer in the long run if we protect ourselves against this hazard. I was planning on posting this later, so it's not totally done, but here's what i have on DivineK so far: + Show Spoiler + Divinek hasn't posted very much, so I there isn't a lot to pull from. I searched for contradictions within his posting and came up with a few, detailed below. + Show Spoiler [Post analysis] + + Show Spoiler [Bad Idea/first post] + On January 24 2011 07:48 Divinek wrote: Trading damn near anything is worth it for a scum player in this game imo. Lol, you cearly don't realize how important the census is for verifying lynch. A veteran player like yourself should have realized just how useful that ability would be ina game with no flip. + Show Spoiler [Self discribed Scum-slip] + On January 28 2011 17:42 Divinek wrote: if i post the list that devoids my entire point of the list right now. It's not like i make crazy spreadsheets or anything like some people, i justttt remember I think RoL is just another dude coasting along, hell he's probably even a blue but I dont really see him as too mafia like atm. On January 28 2011 15:50 Divinek wrote: ehh while I'm not feeling the whole jump on RoL thing either I feel you clear him too easily based on almost leading yourself into passivity. I'm not sure the implications of decisions like this, but we can't really be waiting for people to 'slip up' or make obvious contradictions, because experienced players like him are far less likely to do something so blatant to everyone else. Sure he could define his meta and play like it but that's.... so easy isnt it? I mean there's no hard evidence against him, but there's no hard evidence for him. ... On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote: I'm confused as to why you label him as a townie then you say we shouldn't wait to lynch him. Was that a scum slip? That was a scum slip. + Show Spoiler [SK Lynch Argument] + On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote: are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified On February 02 2011 13:15 Divinek wrote: what, he's going to hang eventually anyways if he listens to you, because he confirms himself as the SK if he does. (or the other SK listens just to implicate him), or he could not listen to you and kill other people making it look like he's not the SK there's so much wifom i dont see how you can think he'd want to listen to us if he was SK. If he's been found out like this he's going to die eventually, his best bet is obviously to deny all claims and play it off like he's NOT the sk. On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote: I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. You're an experienced player. Your first game was actually the same game that Bumatlarge first played in. You said that a revealed SK would never bargain with town? It's happened in every single game I've played that had an SK. You knew better than that: LunarDestiny played with you in Insane Mafia, as a third party, and in a similar no-win position. What did he do? He went ape crazy and killed a bunch of mafia. You said that you are basing your position on past SKs but never mentioned Insane. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. He is the balancer. Whether SK is revealed or not is totally irrelevant to their win condition. It makes it much harder, but not impossible. SK has helped town several times before after being revealed, and hey look. It happened again. I will state it again. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. The mafia were in the lead at that point, so they would want the SK dead. After the lynch/SK/Modkill brought their numbers down to two, town was ahead, so we lynched the SK. It was after Mafia lost three people that Foolishness got on and posted this: On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote: If I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. Soon after Divinek was kind enough to provide us with this post. [B]On February 05 2011 09:10 Divinek wrote: confirming that he is SK violates his win condition, and listening to people to confirm his role violates his win condition as well. It's pretty much a horrible situation for adhering to that rule This whole argument is bad, and bad in a way that benefits the mafia. It doesn't make much sense from the perspective of a townie, but it makes perfect sense from the perspective of Mafia However, contradictions or scummy SK plans aren't the only thing i found suspicious about Divinek. It's when and what his posts are about. + Show Spoiler [Behavioral Analysis] + First off, when I was browsing through Divinek's posts, I found an interesting similarity between Haunted Mafia and Mafia XXXVI: + Show Spoiler [Post comparison with known mafia/town…] + Divinek has been inactive. I don't think there's any arguing that point. In a thead of over 2000 posts, he has 38, roughly 1/50th of the posts. He posted very little at the beginning of the game, posted a bunch about the SK, and then got rather quite again, though, not as quite as before. I'd like to compare his posting from Haunted mafia (Vampire), Team Meley Mini mafia (townie) and this mafia (Mafia?). ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/z6XN0.png) (Note, he was subbed in, so his first real post was 744.) Notice the similarities? He more or less dissapears after a "Hi" post in the beginning, then lurks, popping up and posts a couple of posts, then dissapears again for a long time in both Haunted and this Mafia. In the Team Meley, he was much more active, and didn't disappear after his first couple of posts. This is similar to mafia play I've seen before where they say hi, then disappear for a while, while they get in touch with their scum buddies. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 10 2011 09:50 Impervious wrote: Kav, you're the last person I'd expect to actually suggest switching off of me lol. I'm not as tunnel visioned as I appear. I've just been focusing on you to pressure you. DivineK. You lurk lurk lurk, pop out, tell us not to lynch LD, then lurk lurk lurk until you get a real accusation. You obviously follow the thread, your reaction times are pretty good, so why haven't you been contributing anything? Also, I said that I wasn't finished with my analysis of you. Your analysis of Kenpachi was the next thing on the list. The biggest thing I have against is that you lurked a ton, then come out with a analysis that leads you to the conclusion that "There is nothing that leads be to believe that Kanpachi isn't mafia". What the crap is that? If you were convicted enough to make an analysis, and label him scum, why would you come to a conclusion that is incredibly weak? | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 10 2011 10:04 Jackal58 wrote: I saw it. I suggested Kav read all the Protest the Hero lyrics earlier today. Lots of blood and death. It doesn't fit with the way LSB and Node are presenting clues though. Yeah, I read a lot of lyrics from those songs, and I did see similarity in themes, but not writing. I really doubt that that's a clue, but it was worth looking into. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 10 2011 10:57 Node wrote: Day about to end. DivineK to be lynched, Mr. Wiggles to be modkilled. Uh....You mean Zerroth? Wiggles voted. Zerroth didn't. | ||
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Impervious: I've already posted my analysis of him. I switched the vote of him because of the lack of real opposition. This doesn't clear him, but it made DivineK a better lynch. Cubedin: Barundar has brought up good points, and I'm not a big fan of how he's responded to the pressure. I'll be taking a look at him today, and hopfully give a more founded opinion later. Kenpachi: Uh...Others have brought up decent points, and his overall play seems scummy to me. Nothing solid yet, but that's because I haven't had time to analyze him. Darmousseh: I don't know what to think about him. He doesn't strike me as townie like most everybody else not on this list does, so he gets put last. I'll probably look into his play a bit too, though Cubedin has priority. | ||
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Kavdragon
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But yes, I too am interested to see what's special about this post. | ||
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Kavdragon
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Good job all. Thanks for not lynching me. GG mafia. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 11 2011 11:35 GMarshal wrote: @ Node, I loved the songs in the posts, I listened to whatever the song you picked while looking for clues. I thought this game was really, really fun I think I need a break from the no flip mechanic however, also thank you so much for providing a way for us to see the Mason/Maifa conversations, they make finding out what happened this game much easier. Not really. The mason forum was a front for all that entered new. I had people roleclaim green, and such, and never told others in the circle about BB. For instance, Barundar was in the circle, and had no idea that BB was medic. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 11 2011 11:39 GMarshal wrote: I see, could you then tell me if any relevant machinations took place by PM? I'll try to compile the more significant pm's and post them publicly. Mr.Wiggles was rather inactive during the game, but his mason pics were impeccable. RoL, two medics, and then Barundar. Well done. So, I wasn't trying to do this, but was I posting way too much? Cause I think I have over 200 posts, which seems really high for a game of about 2000... | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 11 2011 11:28 Node wrote: The concept in the first couple of day posts was to introduce the theme of the no flipping setup. A scientist developed some sort of poison that would turn blood black, instead of the usual mafia conceit that the color of a player’s blood refers to their alignment. In the second day post, everyone blacks out after making a toast -- it was here that the poison was delivered. Ha. I called this. Too bad it didn't matter. On February 11 2011 11:42 Node wrote: I was curious if the masons were more active beyond the forum. Did the people recruited find that they used their PM capabilities often? I can definitely understand not wanting to use the forum extensively, it was more of an "it's there if you want it" thing. But I was worried that nobody was taking advantage of the role. Yes. I used PMs and IM extensively. The forum is too public because it assumes that you trust everyone in the circle as soon as the come in. I never trusted anyone for a few days. Also, apologies to Barundar for keeping him in the dark. You did a good job of picking up the slack when school called me away. (If I ever held any slack). Also, thanks a TON to foolishness and BloddyC0bbler for general advice and help on how to build a good analysis. Hopefully I'll get good at is one of these days. | ||
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Also, I'd LOVE to hear from people on how I used the town circle. Mr.Wiggles wasn't too assertive, and as he says in some of his PM's, information only went one way with him, so I was the leader of the circle for all intents and purposes. Were we too trusting? No trusting enough? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 11 2011 12:12 CubEdIn wrote: Well I don't know how you used it, but it was so obvious that there was more information behind the curtains. Actually, the only information that we has was that BB and I were medics. And i didn't know that BB was medic till night 5, when I checked the # of medics, and found 2. (If there was another medic out there, he would have protected GMarshal that night, but since his died, BB was 99% confirmed.) Knowing medics was nice, but really, the circle only served as a place for me to bounce ideas off everyone. I really wish that we had a DT in the circle, but really, this forced us to work on analysis instead of rely on DT checks. | ||
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On February 11 2011 12:20 CubEdIn wrote: @Kav, oh, that's not what I meant. It's just that people are more prone to protect the ones inside the circle, and it showed, during the past 2-3 days. Just look at who was targeted for lynching. And yeah, DT would've made things more interesting. Yeah, Medic protection was focused exclusively on those inside the circle, but that was because we were more sure about them being town. Also, GMarshal get's the "Most protected" award, you were protected 7 times in 5 days. Sorry coag, we didn't make it to Day9. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 11 2011 12:32 bumatlarge wrote: gg! I would have gotten away with everything if it weren't for those pesky mods! Haha, not if I had any say in it. Your DT claim needed work. A real DT wouldn't have checked a body guard, imo. I honestly wish that the whole LD thing hadn't happened. I still think I could have convinced the town. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 11 2011 12:34 Coagulation wrote: I think theres a HIVEMIND aspect to town in mafia that if a name comes up enough people will subconsciously start to build negative references to it on its own. If there's one thing I've learned since starting mafia, it's that what you know is not as important as how you say it. You could post the full scum list from day one, but if you can't convince people that you are right, then you are no help to the town. I started playing this so I could figure out how to analyse people, but I'm coming away from it learning how to make convincing arguments. | ||
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Kavdragon
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Were we lucky, or was the best plan to keep the SK alive? Edit: ALso, Holy crap guys. Mafia used the forum a TON. I mean, we masons used less than a page I think... | ||
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Kavdragon
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The mods messed up with the SK notification but they also messed up with the rules with the mayor too. The town was hit harder by the bad-mod stick than the mafia, and I still gave it my best shot. According to the rules, I wasn't role-blockable. It's pretty clear about that, I can't be "targeted by the role-blocker". So GMarshal and I were invincible according to the rules, because I was going to protect him every night. I was also mod confirmed to be medic to the mafia, something that should have never happened regardless of what I had said on the thread. If it's confirmed, then I can't play mind games, something I was looking forward to. If I had known/been informed that I was role-blockable, I would have had BB protect GMarshal, as the mafia had clearly shown their intent be RB'ing me the night before, and I knew that the mafia knew I was medic. Bottom line, GMarshal's death could have been avoided if the mods were clear. If LD hadn't been informed, Bumatlarge would have still been lynched. Even if you had stacked hits on me, BB would have protected GMarshal too if we hadn't killed enough mafia to lower the KP. Bottom line, Bum's DT claim screwed over mafia. His lynch wasn't a result of LD being informed. That just speed up the process, and sealed the deal. There were mistakes on both sides, but giving up because a mod made a mistake is poor play. Also, special kudos to Barundar for getting up at an ungodly hour (3am?) to be around for the lynch yesterday. We might not have gotten the RB'er if he had not been around last night. Thanks to Node and LSB for hosting. It may have not been the smoothest game, but I still managed to learn a ton, so thanks for that. | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 11 2011 14:15 bumatlarge wrote: Dont think I could have gotten LD lynched? I got you to lynch RoL, didn't I? Oh, absolutely. I wanted it differently, but you'll notice that even when I was sure you were mafia I was starting to go along with the LD lynch. This was because I didn't think that I could convince the town fast enough. So yes, LD would have been lynched, agree. I was saying that I would have gotten you lynched the next day, and beneather the day after that. It's possible that I wouldn't have had the medics stack on GMarshal, so you may have gotten through with a double hit, so that's also a possible outcome. And yes, I fully congratulate you on trying something like that. Takes balls, and I'm happy you tried it, not just because you were caught, but because I dislike the general way of playing mafia that people have adopted. I wish there were a way that mafia could win while being active that's not really hard. On February 11 2011 14:15 bumatlarge wrote: People started to doubt you lol. Yes, that was probably my weakest point, but I think that being able to claim medic, and back that claim up with an actual save would have kept me in the game long enough to get you lynched. THen again, I don't know just how unstable the mayorship is, so...who knows. It was probably a bad idea to defend LD. I should have pushed you instead. (I did eventually, but not off the bat.) Also, sorry to RoL, I learned my lesson on veteran players this game. Not all vets are active. (Not the role) | ||
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Kavdragon
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+ Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 12:27 Kavdragon wrote: Good citizens of Liquidia! I present to you my campaign for Mayor of this fine town filled with wonderful people! Four score and seven minutes ago our hosts brought forth in this forum a new thread conceived in awesomeness and dedicated to the proposition that all men should post a lot. Now we are engaged in a great Mafia game testing whether this thread, or any thread so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on this great posting-field, TL Mafia, in honor of previous games. I have come to dedicate a portion of this thread as a mostly final resting-place for those who here were active that that their game might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But, in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men, posting and dead, who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract. The TL Mafia forum will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this thread under Node and LSB shall have a new birth of activity, and that my mayor-ship of the active, by the active, for the active shall not perish from the thread. But now we must move onward. With the memory of these invaluable players emblazoned in our minds, who will lead us to that play that glorious and active game? I humbly submit myself to the public office, willing to serve a thread, of the actives, by the actives, and for the actives. Under my leadership, the attacks of the enemy will be rebuffed, the confusion sown by the mafia will be silenced! Inactivity banished, and analysis rewarded! I stand for a town, united in activity and lynches for all scum! So come to my banner fellow Liquidians, let us run a race that in all likelihood will likely be quickly forgotten, but awesome none the less! Vote for activity! Vote for Scumhunting! Vote for Victory! Vote for KAV! Be convinced, if not by my words, then by the words of those who came before me. If not by words than by the lol worthy pictures I created for the occasion. If not by pictures, then by the epic music I wrote for a completely different occasion, but which I'm still shamelessly trying to use to further my campaign! + Show Spoiler [Text Endorsements] + On August 9 1974 11:63 VER wrote: Kav's the One. Kav for mayor. On January 20 1961 11:63 Node wrote: I Like Kav. Vote for Kav. On January 22 2011 11:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm Meapak_Ziphh and I approve this message. On January 22 2011 11:26 SiNiquity wrote: I'm SiNiquity and I approve this message. On January 21 2011 08:42 LSB wrote: KAV 4 MAYOR! I'll make you a mspaint poster!!!! + Show Spoiler [Pictorial Endorsements] + + Show Spoiler [Music] + Vote for Victory! Vote for Kav! + Show Spoiler + (PS, i might be an invincible Vigilante, that can protect anyone, and check two people for their role per night. It'd suck to pass up that awesome role in the mayor seat.) Первым человеком, решить мою головоломка в этой кампании будет получить мое восхищение. --отец КавДракона I left a bread crumb trail for those who were good at clues. I figured the mafia would be too lazy with searching for clues to look into it, but turns out no townies figured it out either. All of the pictures I used for my campaign are borrowed and edited from TF2 Medic achievements. I'm surprised that no one realized that, but it was funny anyways. I left in a red haring: The date on both Ver, and Node's endorsement was linked to the date of death of a president. Ver corresponded to Nixon's death, and Node to Eisenhower. The endorsement was phrased like the main slogan of their respective campaigns ("I like Ike", and "Nixon's the one") This lead nowhere. The Russian text translates to something like "There are clues here, whoever finds them earns my respect. --Father Kav Dragon." I'd also like to point out that I actually did post that exactly 4 score and 7 (87) minutes into the game. The speech was a modified version of Lincoln's "Gettysburg address", also adding to the presidential red haring. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
That was my reasoning. Plus, I found precedent later in Insane. | ||
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On February 11 2011 15:59 Barundar wrote: @Kav, imo I did alot to prove I was town to you, but on the other hand it wasn't really necessary to give me the blue info, so you made the right decission keeping it secret I think. Haha, yeah. I actually wrote up this letter for Wiggles to give to you in the event of my death last night: + Show Spoiler + Barundar: If you are reading this, I am dead. I believe that you are town. You are probably the most active and helpful townie right now, and that's valuable. There are somethings that I've not told you because I follow ver's philosophy of keeping the town on a need to know basis. BrownBear is Medic. He calimed medic to me soon after joining the circle. I didn't check the number of blues last night, I checked the # of medics. There were 2. Many people called for GMarshal to be protected that night, and non of them did. If there was a medic out there (Besides BB, who was protecting Wiggles) he would have protected GMarshal. This more or less confirms him as medic. I asked him to publicly role claim green on the forum. Obviously claiming on the mason forum will be public to any who come in, so it's a terrible idea to put our blue information out there. If you don't claim green there, realize that it paints a bigger target on your head becaues if mafia infiltrate, they will assume you to be blue. Use that how you will. + Show Spoiler [Night Actions] + Kavdragon: Medic N1: GMarshal N2: GMarshal N3: GMarshal N4: GMarshal N5: GMarshal (Roleblocked) N6: BrownBear BrownBear: Medic N1: GMarshal N2: Barundar (Roleblocked) N3: GMarshal N4: Mr.Wiggles N5: Mr.Wiggles N6: Kavdragon Mr.Wiggles: Mason N1: RebirthOfLeGenD N2: Kavdragon N3: BrownBear N4: Barundar N5: GMarshal N6: Darmousseh(?) Obviously use your discression in sharing this information. Anyways, I've said pleanty already. You're probably moer capable than I am at this game. I just got lucky with the mayor thing. GL. I really did believe you were town, especially after you got on at 3am to switch your vote. Right, well, I'm not particularly impressed by my scumbar, but you can see who I pressured in the thread to see who I thought was scum, as i didn't make many lists. Instead, here are all the people I thought were scum, that turned out to be town: Impervious (Really suspicious, especially after the analysis. Doh.) Deconduo (Very suspicious, but died before I actually analysed him.) Zerroth (Kind of suspicious, never more than at least one other person though.) Barundar gets my vote for MVP for changing my mind about the imperivous lynch. I mis-read the fact that no one was opposing the lynch as more evidence that he was scum. Barundar made me question that, and ultimately is responsible for the vote being switched to DivineK. (BC helped me hash out the logic, and told me that acting that late in the day wasn't a terrible idea if I thought that divinek was scum, so he deserves credit too.) | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 12 2011 03:14 Impervious wrote: I kept telling you that I wasn't scum..... Yeah, I should have known scum would never try that one on me... Why is your icon stuck on a zergling anyways? | ||
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On February 12 2011 03:16 Impervious wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=121773 Huh. I wonder if I can get mine permanently changed to a Nuke icon... =D | ||
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Kavdragon
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On February 12 2011 05:11 Jackal58 wrote: I was all for lynching DivineK or Cubed and letting you shoot the other one that night. You were right about Divinek and Cubedin. Hilarious. So congrats on that if it wasn't a lucky guess. You should work on convincing people that you are right. Cause that would have been epic if you had been able to push and kill the last two. | ||
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On February 12 2011 09:19 Qatol wrote: Psh. Like I would get lynched as an innocent! ^^ Obviously he's implying that he's never innocent. Added to my auto-lynch-day-one list. | ||
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On February 13 2011 10:42 Qatol wrote: Ummm that was me...... Ver was only Mayor once, and he was a Veteran in that game. What game was that? | ||
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