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Well, it’s that time of the year again, and by time of the year, I mean its just time.
TL towns have of late been getting rolled by inactive mafias or been self-imploding.
Some of these reasons include a few of the following core issues
Placing all their trust in one player
Placing too much importance on blues performing
Not enough behavioural analysis
(In the case of clue games and behavioural games) Too much tunneling of targets.
Talking about issues that allow mafia to easily blend in
These are a few core issues. Now, before I go into detail of how I believe it can be fixed and make a few summaries on games towns’ steamrolled mafia in I will say this. I do not blame you guys for the current trend of things as I honestly do see a lot of us experienced players as a reason for a few of these mistakes. I will say this as when the amount of us playing diminished rapidly and a game would have 1-3 of us total we would force our own will on the game, usually preventing you guys from performing the way we believe you should.
As for how you guys can improve, that is what I am going to try and help accomplish.
I will start by breaking down the points I have listed above.
One leader
This has been a problem in many games. One player in thread or in PM’s is solidified as the primary leader of the town. It somehow falls on them to do almost all the heavy lifting in the game. This causes multiple issues. If they are red, town instantly loses. If they are not careful and information is leaked to mafia, town will lose. If they are not confident in their decisions the town will become confused and you will typically lose. If you die, town is thrown into chaos and usually implodes.
This can be solved by not centralizing leadership on one person. In PM games smaller 2-5 member groups thinking as small cells and analyzing/pushing beliefs, etc… are more effective than one single leader. Multiple strong personalities in a thread (see L, Ace, etc.) Multiple players like that in a thread will argue, clash and ultimately things will get done. It also lets town get a better idea of alignment on players as the more aggressive they are the more analysis you can perform on them.
Anyone can learn the thread presence that the bigger named players possess and all it requires is confidence in your own abilities, and learning to not back down. Sometimes you will be wrong, but if multiple people do this in a game you get essentially an in game thought circle. People will toss ideas at each other and ultimately stronger analysis is usually accomplished. If you notice only one player is stepping up and you feel you have an important point to add, push it through. Your opinion may be disagreed with but that doesn’t make it any less valid.
Trust in one’s blues
People have also been recently putting too much stake in blue performance. This is a bad idea as with recent games role counts of blues are hidden. You wait for days for a detective to come out with their information only to find out at the end there was no detective. This is a fundamental problem that can only be fixed if people assume there are no blues in the game. Assume its just vanilla green vs. vanilla mafia. Analysis is key. If you have blue roles, awesome, but just assume you don’t and play accordingly.
It’s also a bad reason to assume blues will do amazingly as not everyone has experience as said blue role they have. Vigilantes and mad hatters have stress on performance to aim at mafia, detectives have the stress of keeping alive while checking accurately, and so on. These players have added stress, and may or may not perform well because of it. Too much pressure on them and they will most likely perform badly or give themselves up too early.
Lack of Analysis and Tunneling
There is an overwhelming lack of analysis in games and far to many fluff posts. People seem to get bandwagoned off 1 or 2 posts they make that may or may not give any information on their alignment. Faulty logic gets used a lot, which results in many town, sided deaths. Remember, if everyone playing pretty well concurs someone is red and there is next to no kickback from anyone there may be a reason for that. Analysis should be done based on daily trends. Was player an active day 1, did he vanish day 2 and 3 then suddenly reappear when active players died to “lead” the town. Etc…
One or two posts may give them away on any given day but long term trends on someone’s posting will give you a better idea of their alignment. Behavioural analysis should also be used at all times, not just as an excuse to tunnel your suspect. If you think someone is red and cannot find a large set of posts that prove your point well, don’t make the case, sit on it till you have a stronger case. It will only discredit you if he slips up later, or if your analysis lynches a tunnel visioned townie.
Gut shots are awesome sometimes, but they are not reliable, do not base your analysis just on those.
General talking
Towns lately talk too many generalities, and not enough specifics. People will open day 1 with discussion of how their blues could or could not perform that game. While this isn’t a bad place to start, as specifics are never mentioned it lets the mafia easily blend in. Every player roughly knows what the players should be doing with x blue role.
However, if you instead bring in specifics:
Detective checklists
Medic lists
Make watch lists of players
These sort of topics put names down. As soon as a name hits a list discussion should ultimately start on “why is x there, why isn’t y?” “If I’m on a detective check list or watch list does that mean I’m suspected of being red?” etc…
It means people have to get personally involved and risk giving up their alignment. Does someone soft defend or hard defend someone being put on a watch list or the like is something to watch for.
The more discussion you can generate via lists like this the more likely reds will slip up. If everyone but player x is talking about these topics, player x could be a) red b) inactive.
Either or he’s not helping and voila day 1 lynch.
I will now point out some things that happen occasionally that the town should start doing or realize.
Inactivity / Stupidity
I am lumping this issue together as the response from town should be very similar. If someone is inactive it lets mafia hide there if so desired, which happens in most games. Stupidity allows mafia to hide in the background and “appear” active from time to time while hiding behind this person or people. IF people are routinely inactive, or exceptionally spammy/stupid. Town is not wasting lynches if they lynch them, nor are vigilante’s wasting hits on them. These are players that hurt the town as much if not worse than mafia.
*note – By stupid I mean people who are consistently pushing bad lynches, or spamming away decent posts. It does not matter if everyone recognizes they are town, if they are still being a negative force, or bulldogging bad views they should be ignored or removed. Town needs a clear head to play, discussion is good if its productive, if its not it only wastes daytime.
Private Messaging
This feature has been in a fair number of TL games. It is also an amazing tool if used properly. However, if it is not used properly, the mafia will abuse it and potentially win. They are also a function if used improperly will cause people to feel left out and like they don’t matter as players. Pm’s can and do make people elitist in games. IF Pm’s are allowed in a game they should be used properly. Role fishing, small analysis groups, alignment testing.
Role fishing is straightforward so I will not go into it at this time.
Small analysis groups. These groups need not be large, as you only need a few heads to flesh out analysis on people. It also means that if a red is in your group, it is easier to catch them, and it keeps the other groups safe from infiltration.
Alignment testing. This is posting in a way to let you carefully analyze reactions. Townies are more inclined to answer in one way and mafia/blues another. Sometimes this will be obvious such as catching someone lying to you in pm’s or lying in thread. Other times this will be noticing subtle word choices.
Regardless of how you opt to use the tool, if you do not feel comfortable in your ability to use them properly do not use them and play the game via the thread. Ask for detail from Ace on this, as he dislikes the PM feature.
Lying
Do not lie as town period. Town has such a very small amount of reasons in which lying is appropriate that there is next to no point in doing so. Mafia have more reason to lie than town, if town starts to lie frequently the mafia have room to hide. There is a reason Lynch all Liars is a policy some players hold in high regard. It typically offs more mafia than town, and the town it does off are typically unhelpful or destructive towards the town.
Now, these are some of the issues that are prominent in games. I have outlined some ways to avoid them but I don’t believe that this is necessarily enough. Instead I will also reference and analyze a few games where the town performed exceptionally well.
To begin
Chuiu’s Mafia III
Chuiu’s third game. His first game without elected roles. This game had what was at the time an allstar cast of players. Pm’s were allowed, and clues were included.
Mafia list was as followed
decafchicken
wurm
Lenwe
Ace
HeRoS)Pink
MTF
fanatacist
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Plexa
Suicide Bomber
nemY
At the time, Ace, plexa, MTF were all considered to be the top three players of TL mafia by some, and if nothing else were three of the top players. All mafia.
Day 1 opened with folca dt checking ace (we could day check) and calling him out. Ace pointed out that in the case of day 1 with literally no analysis to be done on someone, you lynch the accuser. This is true even to this point (if you can’t prove your role except in the death of yourself). Folca is lynched, flips dt, we now know 100% ace is red.
Night 1 mafia hits some players none are saved. Also during night 1 town circles begin to be created.
Day 2 ace is lynched. He flips red.
Night 2 decaf is vigi’d and flips red, bumatlarge was vigi’d flips town. Red kill more players, although one hit was blocked. Nemy suicide bombs mynock.
Day 3
3 red are dead at this point of 10. This is a good start. DT checks fantasist during day, flips red and is lynched. 4 down.
Night 3
Vig shoots infundibulum (same one that shot decaf. He is also part of a 3 man circle which analyzed both). Midnightgladius is shot and flips town. Mafia shoot a medic, jack and town.
Day 4
Mafia are down to half their team. Dt information bout a vote list (dts could check them at the time) and found a list of 5 names, 2 of which were red. Zbir was on this list and lynched, flipped town. List now down to 4 names 2 red, 1 of which helped lead town to two kills, 2 names 3 players.
Night 4
Town vigi’s lenwe and hero’s)pink (both were on the list of 5). This cleared two town, dropped mafia numbers to 3.
Mafia shoot medic, dt and town.
Day 5.
Town analyzes plexa and mtf. Plexa bus’ mtf. Mtf is lynched, mafia is now down to 2. During this day analysis is placed on plexa that pins him of red.
Night 5
Jack is primed to shoot plexa and mafia concedes knowing that 1 member cannot kill the remaining town.
In 5 game days town won. It successfully lynched 3 of the 5 days, and successfully vig hit 4 times. All the lynches that netted mafia were based either on analysis (behavioural or clues) or on a dt check. 2 vig shots were based on clue analysis and 2 were based on behavioural analysis junctioned with a dt vote list. Suicide bomber killed himself. Last jack hit would have netted a red and was based off behavioural and clues.
I chose this game as one of the games as the town worked as a unified whole. There were multiple small groups that all managed to do their part successfully. Greens and blues worked in tandem. Small circles instead of one large. Pm’s used for analysis (this helped guide blue moves but analysis was done first). People not in circles doing analysis to help. Town lost a lot of members to mafia hits, but still had a clear win.
Cons of this game was town required blues to kill a fair number of reds. However, vigi’s shot accurately for the most part.
Chuiu’s mafia V
This game is a clear town win from the getgo.
Mafia team was relatively inexperienced with only a few experienced players.
09. ydg
10. Scooter
15. Mandalor
17. RebirthOfLeGenD
24. Snet
33. Centric
42. Tricode
46. Humbug
55. LeperKahn
Godfather
22. MasterOfChaos
Day 1
Two town elected to elected roles. BC as Sheriff, and Semioldguy (detective) as mayor. 3 bodyguards were randomized.
RoL was analyzed behaviourally by one town member getting him lynched day 1.
Night 1.
Sog checks mandalor, sees red.
Mafia trip stack ver and kill 3 others
Day 2
Mandalor is lynched
Night 2
Kennigit rc’s scooter who flips red
Fishball shoots tricode who flips red
Day 3
Town uses double lynch and kills scooter and leperkhan (both flip red)
Its day 3 and 5 red are dead, half the mafia number.
Night 3
Kennigit rc’s humbug who flips red
Day 4
Humbug is lynched and is red
Night 4
3 lions and kennigit clue check master of chaos and get a hit
Day 5
Masterofchaos is lynched flips gf
Night 5
Semioldguy checks snet who flips red
Mafia gg’s
This game is an exceptional case where the only active players in the game were town. The dt’s were in contact early, and slowly but surely the main body of the town was functioning in tandom. Some mafia were caught on behavioural/clue analysis however dt’s played a critical role in this setup. Most mafia checked however did have suspicion on them based on clues or behavioural.
This game had many people working in smaller groups some groups interconnected on a few members but most were operating in smaller groups. Displayed why a really active town will be an incredibly inactive mafia if each key element is used correctly (this being analysis/pms/roles).
I would recommend everyone goes and actually reads both these games to see an example of how active towns will win a game. They are two of the older games but both will offer an insight hopefully to those who are unsure what to do and see the examples of how to perform.
There are a few other games that will clearly display solid town play, however they also show negative qualities as well.
One such game is Flamewheels mafia XX where 1 circle did most of the heavy lifting all game. The town steamrolled the mafia, however this led to what I see as the beginning of towns being more complacent (three vets and a few people included into the circle directed the game from lynch to lynch). Interesting game to read if you would like to see how vets perform and how they win, but you will have to ignore the complacency of most players. Mafia was also very inactive in this game.
Each of the games referenced can be found
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=80975
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=115243
IF anyone has any comments, concerns, or would like anything edited in let me know and I shall do my best to respond to each case appropriately. I also honestly hopes this helps in some way. If anyone believes that we are also in need of a more constructed post of how to play as mafia let me know and I shall try to get that created as well.
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I agree that cells can be very useful, and it seems to be problem that it has gone out of vouge recently.
Cells encourage good analysis and testing of analysis before posting, of course, mafia infiltration could be a problem.
What if for the next normal game, the host RNGs 10 premade 3 person cells, and you can only PM people in your cell?
I understand that when someone is first playing, it is hard to get in PM contact and start to share analysis with another player, most people tend to PM people they already know. This would be a way so that everyone would be grouped into a cell, skipping that step.
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What about games with no flip? How should town go about it?
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Ummm I'm not entirely sure that Mafia V is a very good example for what you're talking about. That game was basically an inactive mafia + a town which followed a circle of blue roles around. I thought you were trying to emphasize NOT relying almost exclusively on blue roles for scumhunting?
Mafia III relied on a blue circle for scumhunting as well. Plus a lot of the outcome of Mafia III came from the alliteration clue in which Chuiu accidentally exposed close to the entire mafia. It was more of a lucky win than a dominant town win.
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Mafia 3 actually was a flawed town win. That was the game where we killed the last detective but Chuiu in all his wisdom created some ridiculous rule: the Scum that hit the last Dt also died that night so he negated our hit (which cut our KP down and he made it go into effect THAT VERY NIGHT). Needless to say that DT lived and we ended up losing.
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On January 28 2011 11:16 Ace wrote:
Mafia 3 actually was a flawed town win. That was the game where we killed the last detective but Chuiu in all his wisdom created some ridiculous rule: the Scum that hit the last Dt also died that night so he negated our hit (which cut our KP down and he made it go into effect THAT VERY NIGHT). Needless to say that DT lived and we ended up losing.
Chuiu actually used this rule in every game he hosted.  It was one of the biggest complaints people had with his moderation - if you didn't send your hits in first, they might not all go through.
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United States2186 Posts
This is a good post
One thing I noticed as well is that a lot of people seem to compensate slipshod analysis (as town) by making absurdly long posts like with quoting every post someone makes. If you make a giant post, it better be chock full of juicy info and not just some junk made 20x larger.
Analysis is not about pouring on every minor flaw someone makes regardless of motivation. It's about finding the key points that makes them certain to be mafia and emphasizing them.
On January 28 2011 08:11 Qatol wrote:
Ummm I'm not entirely sure that Mafia V is a very good example for what you're talking about. That game was basically an inactive mafia + a town which followed a circle of blue roles around. I thought you were trying to emphasize NOT relying almost exclusively on blue roles for scumhunting?
Mafia III relied on a blue circle for scumhunting as well. Plus a lot of the outcome of Mafia III came from the alliteration clue in which Chuiu accidentally exposed close to the entire mafia. It was more of a lucky win than a dominant town win.
Mafia V had people mostly nail people by analysis and various players confirmed the town. The DT's only confirmed what people already knew. Like it's pretty obvious that mandalor is mafia when i got triple hit night 1 after pinning him w/ mbh; didnt need a rolecheck there.
Basically it was the exact same situation as mafia xxxv (inactive/lurking mafia) except the townies all figured out who was innocent on day 1 and then just started nailing mafia instead of going 1/10 on kp. The game was really just an example of why you can't randomize teams, though that was only an issue back then really.
The problem with BC's list is that...there really aren't that many good examples of a strong town that doesn't rely on blues. Most interesting town games are won by literally 1, maybe 2 outstanding performances while everyone else twiddles their thumbs. It of course exemplifies the 'one man leader' thing perfectly.
Here's a list of a bunch of really strong town plays that people can learn from. It's not all encompassing cause I pulled it from memory.
mafia 2- ace + plexa + mtf + camlito
mafia resurrection- ace + qatol + caller
mafia 4- qatol/ltt
mafia 7- ace
mafia 8- dreamflower/0zc3c
pyrrs game- foolishness
mafia 12- foolishness
red army mafia- ver/chezinu/lucaswoj
maia 15- dreamflower
incog mafia 16- citizen/ng5
mafia 18- ace/ver
mafia 20- bc/incognito/l
pyp 1- radfield/qatol
mafia 30- foolishness
pyp 3- bloodycobbler/jimbosilvers
On January 28 2011 11:16 Ace wrote:
Mafia 3 actually was a flawed town win. That was the game where we killed the last detective but Chuiu in all his wisdom created some ridiculous rule: the Scum that hit the last Dt also died that night so he negated our hit (which cut our KP down and he made it go into effect THAT VERY NIGHT). Needless to say that DT lived and we ended up losing.
You forgot to include how town had 14kp or something ludicrous.
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lol mafia 30. Foolishness basically ended the game for us by not dying night 1.
Great write-up, BC.
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United States22154 Posts
Thanks for the awesome and well though out post, I will go back and read through those mafia games when I have time, but just by reading your post I feel like I have learned a lot.
Thanks for the time and effort, now to go out and apply this in game
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On January 28 2011 07:20 LunarDestiny wrote:
What about games with no flip? How should town go about it?
If there is no flip / role that flips dead people.
You count kp. For instance, day 2 someone is lynched, and night 2 kp is 3 (assume no sk in game). Day 3 someone is lynched, night 3 2 people die, no one claims save/hit.
Chances are 1-2 reds are dead if kp drops. It is possible they doublestacked hits, but you can verify by one more day passing.
It is harder to verify but it is possible.
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On January 28 2011 08:11 Qatol wrote:
Ummm I'm not entirely sure that Mafia V is a very good example for what you're talking about. That game was basically an inactive mafia + a town which followed a circle of blue roles around. I thought you were trying to emphasize NOT relying almost exclusively on blue roles for scumhunting?
Mafia III relied on a blue circle for scumhunting as well. Plus a lot of the outcome of Mafia III came from the alliteration clue in which Chuiu accidentally exposed close to the entire mafia. It was more of a lucky win than a dominant town win.
Ver covered game 5 pretty well.
As for game 3, there were alot of vigi's sniping, but a fair number of reds were caught based on some form of analysis.
Nemy was suspected and he suicide bomb'd, infundi was clue analyzed by me and shot by nightmare at my urging. Decaf was red herring'd but still analyzed, etc...
Blues were heavily involved, but small circles were involved, a lot of people analyzing and the like. And honestly, most solid games to point at for epic town performances were either really inactive mafia, or 1-3 people on town steamrolling. Which in my head has led to many problems we face now.
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On January 28 2011 14:01 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 07:20 LunarDestiny wrote:
What about games with no flip? How should town go about it? If there is no flip / role that flips dead people. You count kp. For instance, day 2 someone is lynched, and night 2 kp is 3 (assume no sk in game). Day 3 someone is lynched, night 3 2 people die, no one claims save/hit. Chances are 1-2 reds are dead if kp drops. It is possible they doublestacked hits, but you can verify by one more day passing. It is harder to verify but it is possible.
One thing that really bothers me if what do you do with dt check returning mafia postive. There's no confirmation that the lynch is good even if we do trust the dt. So do we lynch both the dt and checked mafia?
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On January 28 2011 14:16 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 14:01 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On January 28 2011 07:20 LunarDestiny wrote:
What about games with no flip? How should town go about it? If there is no flip / role that flips dead people. You count kp. For instance, day 2 someone is lynched, and night 2 kp is 3 (assume no sk in game). Day 3 someone is lynched, night 3 2 people die, no one claims save/hit. Chances are 1-2 reds are dead if kp drops. It is possible they doublestacked hits, but you can verify by one more day passing. It is harder to verify but it is possible. One thing that really bothers me if what do you do with dt check returning mafia postive. There's no confirmation that the lynch is good even if we do trust the dt. So do we lynch both the dt and checked mafia?
Depends on how far into the game you are. Like, if you have someone who has been playing insanely pro town for 2-3 days and claims dt and lays out 2-3 checks which net you 1-2 reds, or confirm like 3 people. Then you might not lynch him. However, day 2 inactive lurker appears out of no where and busts out dt claim and he found a red you prob lynch accuser first.
The folca/ace situation in game 3 led to folca dying first because of how fast into the game it was. Neither player was pro town or pro red at that point. It is literally 50/50. Generally you will always lynch the accuser if the situation is just that 50/50. If the person checked is widely suspected / clue raped or the like, dt may survive a day or two longer to prove they are town. It is really subjective, but town should not default believe the word of someone as dt unless they can heavily prove their role.
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This never gets old.
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/XST1O.jpg)
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On January 28 2011 14:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 14:16 LunarDestiny wrote:On January 28 2011 14:01 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On January 28 2011 07:20 LunarDestiny wrote:
What about games with no flip? How should town go about it? If there is no flip / role that flips dead people. You count kp. For instance, day 2 someone is lynched, and night 2 kp is 3 (assume no sk in game). Day 3 someone is lynched, night 3 2 people die, no one claims save/hit. Chances are 1-2 reds are dead if kp drops. It is possible they doublestacked hits, but you can verify by one more day passing. It is harder to verify but it is possible. One thing that really bothers me if what do you do with dt check returning mafia postive. There's no confirmation that the lynch is good even if we do trust the dt. So do we lynch both the dt and checked mafia? Depends on how far into the game you are. Like, if you have someone who has been playing insanely pro town for 2-3 days and claims dt and lays out 2-3 checks which net you 1-2 reds, or confirm like 3 people. Then you might not lynch him. However, day 2 inactive lurker appears out of no where and busts out dt claim and he found a red you prob lynch accuser first. The folca/ace situation in game 3 led to folca dying first because of how fast into the game it was. Neither player was pro town or pro red at that point. It is literally 50/50. Generally you will always lynch the accuser if the situation is just that 50/50. If the person checked is widely suspected / clue raped or the like, dt may survive a day or two longer to prove they are town. It is really subjective, but town should not default believe the word of someone as dt unless they can heavily prove their role.
They can't prove their role without people flipping. Honestly, it comes down to a question of "would the mafia risk exposing one of their own to kill this player?"
On January 28 2011 14:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 08:11 Qatol wrote:
Ummm I'm not entirely sure that Mafia V is a very good example for what you're talking about. That game was basically an inactive mafia + a town which followed a circle of blue roles around. I thought you were trying to emphasize NOT relying almost exclusively on blue roles for scumhunting?
Mafia III relied on a blue circle for scumhunting as well. Plus a lot of the outcome of Mafia III came from the alliteration clue in which Chuiu accidentally exposed close to the entire mafia. It was more of a lucky win than a dominant town win. Ver covered game 5 pretty well. As for game 3, there were alot of vigi's sniping, but a fair number of reds were caught based on some form of analysis. Nemy was suspected and he suicide bomb'd, infundi was clue analyzed by me and shot by nightmare at my urging. Decaf was red herring'd but still analyzed, etc... Blues were heavily involved, but small circles were involved, a lot of people analyzing and the like. And honestly, most solid games to point at for epic town performances were either really inactive mafia, or 1-3 people on town steamrolling. Which in my head has led to many problems we face now.
So Nemy was suspected and then the town relied upon their blue roles. Infundi was analyzed and then the town relied upon their blue roles. It wasn't a lot of people. It was the blues. The only difference is the host of that game gave the town a ton more good blue roles, so blue circle was by definition larger. That won't happen with the modern games unless we try another game kinda like Mafia 4 but better balanced with less useless blue roles. Either way, I still think you are using a terrible game to try and make your point.
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Just read mafia 3.
While you (BC) were a green townie that did analysis in a cell, I didn't get the sense that analysis cells were the MAIN force in that (decisive) town victory.
Here's your own take on it from back in the day:
On November 18 2008 17:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2008 17:12 Plexa wrote:
So basically what happened was after Ace got lynched my dad collapsed and when i finally got back mafia were fucked.
WHAT HAPPENED T_T! My perspective Basically it went like this. After day one analysis nightmare contacted me and told me he was a vig, and basically we took a huge risk on eachother betting the other was what he said he was. We both decided to work together, provided we lived the night. We lived the night, and due to a few things you posted right after around that night, nightmare concluded killing decaf would prove you were innocent, which i didnt really get at the time but rolled with. We lynched ace, vigi'd decaf, and mynock managed to lure out nemy. Then we were down 3 mafia. I then proved to nightmare that we had a sure kill mafia in infundbulum so he threw in his hit for him, and we had someone check and call out fanatacist who was lynched, infundi was killed and we were down to 5. we then used a list previously checked that had 2 mafia on a list of 5, we then lynched zbir who flipped green, and then two vigi's pwned lenwe and heros pink. Dropping you guys to three, we lynched mtf at yours mainly and a bit of a few of the rest of us clue analysis, and then it was down to two. We had alot of shit on you and then someone checked you and said you were red, giving you the lynch had we gotten there, then it was gonna be one left. Throughout this however, there were a few small groups that eventually kinda got together through 1 or 2 mutual people to work together to pass info. Sucks for you guys though, ace got nailed at the start, and your dads stuff happening taking you out briefly, sorry bud, better luck in aces game
My take on some key aspects of the town victory that are hard for town to control:
- Your cell formation was a big risk, especially on nightmare's part, that also payed off in a big way.
- Mafia got somewhat clue raped (decafchicken lol, AMIN lol)
- Town had a metric butt-ton of blue roles (3 medics, 3 vigis, 3 DTs, 2 JOATs, hatter) which gave them almost endless info and KP.
- With so many blues, having an all-star mafia team was a huge disadvantage. High caliber players attract more attention, and with all the DT's and JOATs around, these conspicuous players (Ace, Plexa, MTF) had no room to navigate.
- Mafia made several errors in linking to each other (although some of this was written off as wifom)
Overall, I'd say clues and PMs both played a key role in this game, and both of those things make it hard to glean value/insight as an observer now.
One thing I would find very valuable would be your analysis (along with nightmare) of infundibulum or decaf, since (I assume) most of your thought process behind those hits was in PMs (unless it really was pretty much 100% clue based).
I think your analysis of LSB in PYP3 was quite good and eye opening for me personally. I am ashamed I didn't see it right away, but there were two reasons for that. + Show Spoiler [reasons] +One, of course, you were one of my suspects at the time which always makes it hard to listen. Two, I really had not payed attention to LSB's plan (or Jimbo's or anyone else's), partly because I was more wrapped up in team mini mafia at that time (PYP3 was still pre-game for a lot of the plan discussion), but mostly because I just didn't give a crap about plans. I felt like discussing plans gave everyone (read: mafia) a safe, generic way to contribute and so I didn't care to participate and doubted I would find anything analysable. I see the error in my thinking now.
You layed out your case quite clearly.
+ Show Spoiler [BC's analysis of LSB] +On January 14 2011 05:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Woo, time for analysis time. Lets see how much hate it gets me. HI LSB! *waves* remember me? Maybe you don't but you won't after this I swear! Guess what people its time to analyze the infamous LSB, the planner, the strategizer and the anti town. So lets open up with some fun times. Show nested quote +On January 03 2011 10:50 LSB wrote:![[image loading]](http://homeschoolblogger.com/explorer/files/2010/10/fractal-2.jpg) Information is BeautifulIntroductory Notes + Show Spoiler +1. There are 21 roles, and 21 People. Of these roles. Only three are completely ainti-town. The Godfather, the Traitor, and the Janitor (To a degree).
2. There are two doctors. So even if the mafia knows where two of the most powerful roles are (JOAT, Bullet Bill). It shouldn’t be a problem as we can protect them every single time.
3. The mafia only has 1 kp. So at best, they can only take out one good role a night
Taking these two points in mind, I’m coming up with the Information is Beautiful plan. The goal of the plan is to give almost everyone a role so that there will be soo many blues that the mafia can't do anything about it. The plan in a nutshell. We will create a list of roles. For example 1. CPR Doc 2. Comp Vig 3. Janitor. Lets say the draft turns out to be 1. LSB 2. Deconduo 3. Kenpachi LSB would draft the CPR Doc role Deconduo would draft the Comp Vig role Kenpachi would draft the Janitor role We do this for 20 roles. The last person will randomly chose a role. Because picking traitor would be dumb. Step one: Number Picking PhaseWe want the number picking phase to be as random as possible. So please. No one declare what number they will be picking. This will make it hard for the mafia to predict what spot they will take. We will put together a list of what spot will take which role. This way the mafia won’t be able to pick which role they are forced to take. Step two: Role Drafting PhaseEveryone will draft the role they will suppose to be drafting. Step three: Resolve DisputesLets say the person who was suppose to pick JOAT didn’t get his role. We can start sending Role Cops and Bullet Bills to figure out who took the JOAT role. ConsiderationsInformationThe mafia would know where every single role would be. This means that our alignment cops are pretty vulnerable. But remember, the town would know where every single role. This opens up lots and lots of possibilities. DTs immediately telling results. Doctors claiming who they are going to protect before they do, so if they actually are weak doctors, we got a 100% mafia. Town will also get up to three KP. 1 Lynch KP. 1 CPR Doc. 1 Comp Vig. The town KP will severely outnumber the mafia KP. Serial KillerThere is a key fact about the SK we can exploit. The SK is bulletproof. That means that whenever one of the town hits doesn't go off and is blocked, that person is the SK. Stunning plan which he mentioned pre game. Now lets look at some preliminary comments to it Show nested quote +On January 03 2011 13:41 Incognito wrote:
Lol @ LSB's plan. Why am I so tempted to join this game... Show nested quote +On January 05 2011 00:15 citi.zen wrote:On January 03 2011 14:47 Incognito wrote:On January 03 2011 14:43 LSB wrote:On January 03 2011 13:16 kitaman27 wrote:On January 03 2011 10:50 LSB wrote:
2. There are two doctors. So even if the mafia knows where two of the most powerful roles are (JOAT, Bullet Bill). It shouldn’t be a problem as we can protect them every single time.
What about the fact that the medics identities will be public too? Couldn't they be picked off day one? On January 03 2011 10:50 LSB wrote:3. The mafia only has 1 kp. So at best, they can only take out one good role a night Town has to worry about 2 kp because the SK will likely be sniping good roles as well. It is unlikely that any of these kills will be blocked if the veteran, bulletproof, hider are all public and the medics are sitting ducks. Would it be better for the anti-town roles to be predetermined so the town has some control over them, while the pro-town roles remain hidden? That would result in some overlap in role selection, however important roles like bullet bill and alignment cop won't be taken out so easily. All right, in order to understand this fully, you have to understand one thing Clash is equivilant to a mafia kill / SK kill Lets say that in my plan, I was assigned the DT and you the Medic. All right, mafia might spend on of their KPs and take out the DT Now, lets say we just randomly choose roles. I picked DT, and you picked DT. Sure the mafia 'doesn't know where the medic is' but we have no medic. Frankly, yeah, one of our DT/Medics will die. But we got 19 other blue roles to draw up on. The point of the plan is to eliminate clash in role selection so that we get an obcene amount of information. If you still don't understand, try propsing a solution. The threat of having a medic is almost as good as actually having a medic. As you know, medic saves are quite rare. As long as mafia thinks there are medics in the game, then they can't just brashly decide to hit someone important and know with confidence that he will die. As long as no medics die, mafia always have to choose hits with the consideration that there might be medics. Town could care less if they actually exist. Agreed! By far the most important thing is keeping the mafia from having perfect information. Actual roles can help depending on how things develop, but they are not the end-all in these games and surely not worth giving the mafia full (or even too much) info. Show nested quote +On January 05 2011 07:29 Ace wrote:
Since the game hasn't started yet I'll say this about your plan: If I was Scum I'd love it. Show nested quote +On January 05 2011 07:40 Ver wrote:On January 05 2011 07:29 Ace wrote:
Since the game hasn't started yet I'll say this about your plan: If I was Scum I'd love it. Yup. God help the town, especially if they have to deal with a traitor. Show nested quote +On January 05 2011 13:32 Fishball wrote:
Did LSB just assign a single role to every draft?...
That's even worse than Radfield's plan. Now everyone keep in mind, THIS IS ALL PREGAME. It has been turned down by citizen, fishball, ace, incog, and Ver. Now, this is a pretty decent group of players that hated the plan. Now lets see what happens as the first day approaches. Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 08:02 LSB wrote:
1. CPR Doc
2. JOAT
3. Vig
4. Bullet Bill
5. Copy Cat
6. Doctor
7. Role Blocker
8. Doctor
9. Day Vig
10. Role Cop
11. Pardoner
12. Alignment Cop
13. Politican
14. Tracker
15. Mason
16. Witch
17. Hider
18. Janitor
19. Bulletproof
20. Prince of Darkness
21. Veteran
22. God Father
Philosophy
Red Roles are "Watch Roles". These roles if they do anything suspicious the town can easily tell and lynch. Mafia cannot do much with these roles
Green Roles are "Pro town roles". These roles are crucial as their abilities to gather information and protect others can bring town victory
Blue Roles are "role verifiable roles". These role can easily prove that they picked the role that they were suppose to pick. This will be useful if people find if someone stole their pick, or when we're hunting the traitor.
Alternation
: The roles that we don't want the mafia to get their hands on are the green roles. That's why I alternated the green roles with the red/blue roles. This way it will be harder for the mafia to snag up these roles.
The confirming as started, people have their preliminary alignments, and he begins posting his plan again, wait what? wasnt this already bashed down and proven to be anti town. Still hes pushing it. Lets see some reactions now the game has started. Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 08:22 Fishball wrote:
Decided to join last minute, I haven't read anything yet, including OP. I'll read it later when I have time.
I just want to bring this up front first, it will be very unlikely for me to follow LSB's plan. Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 09:04 JimboSilvers wrote:
Why should we follow it?
Clearly we need some kind of control over certain roles but your plan was already poor received by a lot of people here. Yes you may have altered it but you are still trying to control every pick which keeps some of the same problems. I have yet to finish reading #2 but Ace already said mafia lost due to inactivity not the plan. Using that as support seems stupid.
But there's a more important reason. This is GODAMN PICK YOUR POWER 3. It's going to be awesome. It is not LSB's slumberhouse of bored afkers. I sure as hell aint using no predetermined list. Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 09:49 Amber[LighT] wrote:On January 07 2011 09:08 LSB wrote:
Why we need the plan? Would happen with everyone picking what they want?
For starters:
There's going to be a few townies that get the role they want. Maybe there's going to be a Bullet Bill, and a JOAT.
There's going to be a whole bunch of townies that tried to pick the Bullet Bill and the Joat, but didn't get it so they just ended up green.
There's going to be a whole bunch of roles that are important left untouched because no townie decided to pick it.
It's going to be easy for mafia to pick up the roles they want. Just get a high draft number and start stealing. You act like it will be so easy for mafia to get high draft numbers. Doing it this way allows them to downplay their draft numbers, giving them more comfort during the draft for roles that could be beneficial for them or detrimental for the town to lose. Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 13:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
also lsb -_- *facepalm* Your plan gives wayyyyyy to much information to mafia. It also gives the mafia a stupid easy time of faking being town depending on the role they get. Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 14:06 bumatlarge wrote:On January 07 2011 08:22 Fishball wrote:
Decided to join last minute, I haven't read anything yet, including OP. I'll read it later when I have time.
I just want to bring this up front first, it will be very unlikely for me to follow LSB's plan. I'm going to do what fishball is doing. I think LSB's list is a nice guideline for what you should be looking for, but it should not be set in stone. It's easily infiltrated and a lot can get screwed up. I think you should rewrite the list LSB with what you think is best for each slot, and then add an alternative choice. For instance, Slot 1 should take CPR doc 100%, so we can keep tabs. Now I would argue that slot 2 should take CV, because we want to minimize confusion in the case of clash. Then again, your plan of staggering the pro-town/mafia-denied roles will make it very difficult for mafia to secure what they want. If we assume the mafia is going to play safe, then this should go smoothly. Yet mafia may be willing to play risky, jeopardizing town's plan of denying and securing in exchange for a member. I think we should leave it up to who gets the role. Now for numbers, I'd say if you want to be pro-town and possibly net a powerful role, go [1-7][1]. This threatens mafia in tying, forcing them to take odder numbers. If you want a strong role and feel you will play it beneficially, go [1-10][1-5]. If you feel a lot of suspicion, you can roll high, can placed towards the middle and check what your suspect picks, though that should be only when you feel very strongly about someone's scumosity. But if you do find an alternate role pick, and that person hasn't been secretive about what they will pick, you net the whole town a traitor or a sneaky scum. But that's also a high risk chance of you checking a townie and getting vanilla, or you making an accurate FoS, but finding that mafia has no plans of diverting from his role. So in short, LSB's list should just highly recommend things. If you get slot 9 and think you want to see if you can get JOAT, Go for it! If you are slot 1, tell everyone you are picking CPR, and then pick GF instead, then you got some 'splainin to do. Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 16:25 Misder wrote:
/confirm
I think this debate will become down to whether or not giving town info/roles outweighs giving mafia info/roles.
Couple things for the plan:
1) Mafia has only 1 KP, so I feel like the only way they can possibly win is if they get a KP role.
2) Role cop has some usage by checking roles and seeing if it corresponds to what role they should have gotten.
3) Allows for more roles
a) Avoids clash between town for important town roles ie tracker (although refer to 1b and 2 of the following list)
4) Doesn't guarantee a stop in giving mafia roles that they would want ie CPR Doc
Couple things I'm concerned about LSB's plan:
1) Guarantee that mafia will get roles
a) Since we know the draft order once we pick numbers, if mafia lands on one of the roles that is crucial to mafia, ie vigilante, mafia can relax in getting the role they want.
b) Even if mafia doesn't get the role they want according to LSB's list, they may still conform with the list just to deny the town with a useful role ie Bullet Bill
c) All the roles are useful for mafia in some way (except role cop, but refer to 2)
2) Still doesn't stop mafia from clashing with important town roles, esp if mafia ends up with a role that they don't want
2) Plan makes bulletproof and veteran useless, as they can't draw in mafia KP.
3) Mafia will know who is what role, and is able to target by role instead of in the dark.
Right now, I'm leaning towards no to LSB's plan, partly because of pregame discussion but mostly because I feel cons outweigh pros. Ok everyone, I know what your thinking? why is he quoting so many peoples posts. Simple, This is an example of all the kickback this plan got, from pre game, into number drafting. STILL, he pushed this plan. It was pushed all the way up till the draft picks were assigned, and continued into the current day where people "should have picked" specific roles. However, if you think the whole idea of pushing this plan is bad, keep in mind he sat back and did not claim he didn't recieve his role. Normally this wouldn't be considered a bad thing, except for reasons like this. Show nested quote +On January 10 2011 13:30 LSB wrote:
If you were assigned a red role and did no recieve it. Please Claim
In addition, if you picked traitor and did not recieve it, please claim. Show nested quote +On January 10 2011 13:56 LSB wrote:
To be more specific. If roles 2,3,4,5,7,18,20 followed the plan and did not get their role, please claim. Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 12:36 LSB wrote:
Jackal58 should be the copycat.
But as for the pardoner, I agree that the role should be used early to prevent mafia from using it late game to pull off a lylo win. At the same time though, it can prevent a townie from being lynched. Show nested quote +On January 12 2011 08:54 aidnai wrote:about your night plan LSB, barundar's verification is subject to being checked by a role cop, fishball's is subject to having a tracker play along with us. Zeks already said he's not going with your plan, so there's a good chance we don't have a tracker. Eiii did agree to pick rolecop, but he hasn't mentioned if he got it or if he'll check barundar. If we don't get these checks, that leaves a lot of wiggle room for scum. Also On January 10 2011 13:30 LSB wrote:
If you were assigned a red role and did no recieve it. Please Claim
In addition, if you picked traitor and did not recieve it, please claim.
22. LSB God Father
You the godfather LSB? Show nested quote +On January 12 2011 08:58 LSB wrote:
I have a very good reason for not saying anything about my role. Show nested quote +On January 12 2011 09:09 LSB wrote:On January 12 2011 09:08 Kenpachi wrote:
Yea. im not CC or JOAT Are you bulletproof? Show nested quote +On January 13 2011 13:34 LSB wrote:
This is an important question. HaploPaithan, are you the doctor? Show nested quote +On January 13 2011 13:50 LSB wrote:
Kenpachi Claimed that he wasn't the CC.
I'd rather wait for HaploPaithan's claim. My position on who to lynch will be determined on this. Show nested quote +On January 13 2011 13:58 LSB wrote:
I don't think Kita is the CC.
If I had to pick the mafia team and their roles
Deconduo- CC
Kenpachi- Some Mafia role
Mafia Member 1- CPR Doc
Mafia Member 2- JOAT Now, he has had more posts obviously, but the majority of his pregame/draft pick/day 1/beginning of day 2 is now up quoted. See the pattern? Very little is actually offered. He pushes a plan that is agreed upon to be anti town by the majority. He then after failing to get his own role via the draft pick sits back and asks for people to claim, repeatedly. Its an information hunt, building who has x role. We then have him refuse to claim when asked when he was assigned one of the roles that was supposed to claim into the main thread if it was taken by someone else. See that last part there? HE DIDN"T FOLLOW HIS OWN PLAN. Period. He didn't follow the plan he was trying to push, he tried to farm information from people. He refused to claim, but still tried to call the shots on what other roles are doing. Plus, most of his posts are fluff. I realize that I have not been the most active of people, but this is getting ridiculous. A player who has played this game so anti town is unbelievable that A) he is still be listened to B) He isn't dead yet C) Everyone is oblivious to points A and B. Everyone just sit back and re read his posts. Aside from his "plan" that next to no one followed (including himself no less!), he has posted very little contributions to the thread aside from trying to bandwagon kenpachi and aidnai. Today he begins the hunt for the traitor (which I am equally as bad for), and speculating on roles. Overall he has done very very very little to actually benefit the town, and more to benefit himself / mafia. With the way he has been playing he is either a second SK or part of the mafia. Regardless, not enough posts of his appear townlike, and far too many appear anti town.
To summarise, it went like this
1) LSB presents a scum favored plan
2) LSB hedges a little bit, may be willing to make concessions/modifications
3) Game starts, all critical elements of the plan go back to being horribly scum favored as discussed previously
4) LSB still pushes his plan
5) LSB DOESN'T COMPLY WITH HIS PLAN
Now, the logic here is simple enough for anyone to follow. This behaviour simply cannot be explained by a town oriented LSB. What I particularly like about this analysis though is that every point you made was laid out in a logical fashion and had supporting quotes, each of which added to your case. Although there were tons of quotes none of them were just fluff. I also like that this analysis is strictly behavioural, there were no clues or questionable 'scumtells'.
anyway this has gone on longer than I planned already. Just some thoughts from a mafia newb/learner.
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