TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 47
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Over active Same Under active No color = don't know/not enough games with/forgot BOLD = VERY
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 28 2011 13:20 GMarshal wrote: @LunarDestiny: I think that the names wouldn't be clues because its too evident, unless their profiles are otherwise bare, I suspect that the mods would make us work harder for results, this is why I think the RoL and Nemesis clue analysis both have merits, because they aren't immediately evident, and actually required work to uncover. From past clue games I'm pretty sure there have always been at least one or two name references that get mixed in. That doesn't necessarily mean they will be present in this game, but its a possibility. | ||
Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
tube Kenpachi Divinek scum be there | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 28 2011 13:33 Coagulation wrote: CubEdIn tube Kenpachi Divinek scum be there Cool, now you just have to provide reasoning rather than selecting 4 members and posting that some might be scum. | ||
BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On January 28 2011 13:07 kitaman27 wrote: Despite me poking at coag, I still think we should focus the lynch between nemesis and RoL rather than spread it out between a bunch of people. RoL has been laying low relative to how he started and nemesis hasn't really defended himself adequately either. I'm more concerned about RoL laying low than Nemesis' clue connections. We can analyze how the clues connect to Nem all we want, but it's very strange that RoL was reasonably active for a day leading up to Kav being chosen as mayor, then disappeared off the radar. With that in mind, time to take a closer look at our possibly-friendly neighborhood RebirthOfLegenD. IMPORTANT STATS: Posts in thread: 37 Posts Day 1: 29 Posts Day 2: 8 (At this rate, he'll have 17 or so by the end of the day cycle.) This is an interesting thing, which I just mentioned. He's been significantly more inactive Day 2 than Day 1. This could be attributed to a number of things (he's not trying to run a mayoral campaign, everyone's a little less active day 2, etc.), but really, it's worth noticing. It by itself means nothing, though, lets look at more stuff. PROFILE: He has no photo, so that's easy. Let's look at his public profile: Welcome to the war "Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference." "What happens to a dream deferred? Does it dry up like a raisin in the sun? Or fester like a sore-- And then run? Does it stink like rotten meat? Or crust and sugar over-- like a syrupy sweet? Maybe it just sags like a heavy load. Or does it explode?" Page 150 of auto ban list Lag was just temp banned for 1 week by Hot_Bid. That account was created on 2009-03-04 00:41:24 and had 16 posts. Reason: I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you want to troll, I can tell you I have no patience for that. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long moderation career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you stop the stupidity now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, in one week, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will ban you. And his quote: "Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!" Nice plug of the mafia forum there, and I was unable to find any clues pointing to that. To his public profile though... People have mentioned the "You can't run" possibly referring to MP running away, I'm not sure I buy it. It's a very very tenuous connection at best. That said, I'm not sure Node/LSB wanted to make the clues as obvious as they seem to be about Nemesis, so... perhaps. Moving on to the really important bit: ANALYSIS OF HIS POSTS: On January 23 2011 18:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: hey! I will run for mayor too. My platform is only that I will destroy the souls of mafia. That is all. His first post after the game has really gotten started. I can't tell if this is a subtle critique of Kav and kita's silly mayoral platforms, or whether he actually was serious from the get-go. Regardless, he gets more serious about his platform quickly: On January 23 2011 23:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I haven't actually read most of the thread yet. Kav is a decent and level headed townie, although I don't remember ever seeing him as mafia. I tend to be much more erratic of a player but I do get results whatever we choose I am fine with. Oh wait nevermind. A soft endorsement of Kav. Going off of meta, which I agree with in terms of Kav being a good player and a reasonable dude. I'm sure he gets serious about his candidacy at some point... On January 24 2011 09:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Do I vote here? I don't see a thread so I will assume yes. I will vote for Kavdragon I suppose. ##Vote: Kavdragon Not yet... On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you. As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created. I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom. Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why. In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches. Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die. Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck. DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk. Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor. Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it. Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia. BOOM. There we go. This is his real platform here. The most important thing here is, he tells us his playstyle. I've only played a couple games with him, but he plays pretty much like he said, so he is telling us the truth here. Not a very scummy move at all, giving the town the key with which to catch and lynch you. He goes on to talk about metastrategy regarding the other candidates. Here, I think he sells Dr. H a little bit short, (I think Dr. H is a pretty good player and a decent scumhunter) but he's very clear about what he wants the plan for town to be: He's not taking a central role, all faith is not placed in him, he's just playing the role almost of cheerleader, getting town to get psyched about catching scum, getting them all involved. That's not a scummy move at all, in fact that's the opposite. A scum mayor would be much more like "trust in me guys, I'll save you!", then lead town in circles while mafia ate them alive. RoL wants town to win, that much is clear from this post. He disappears for a while after this post, which is kind of strange. I guess his apathy got the better of him... He comes back after most people have abandoned his campaign and tries to save it with a few one liners that outline good strategy, but in a really lazy, half-assed way. Then: On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more. This is the core of his platform, and rehashes the above long post into a much more cohesive idea: Mayor-centric towns lose games. This is true. Also, he calls out Amber, which ended up being inconsequential - so far. On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more". Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting. I will switch my vote back too kav. Good honest debate here, discussing how the mason role works. Again, so far I haven't seen anything that's triggering my scumdar. I could go into Day 2, but not enough has been posted yet. CONCLUSION: It seems the only real case against RoL is from his inactivity Day 2 + one really tenuous clue connection. He's been outlining some very helpful practices town should be following, hasn't contradicted himself yet, and hasn't done anything obviously scummy. The only weird thing is his apathy. He's come out and posted great stuff, but very sporadically, and his heart doesn't really seem to be in this game like it has in the past. For that reason, I'm pegging him as Green, and a very apathetic green. What RoL should do is try and recapture some of the energy of past games, and get his ass in gear to provide this high quality analysis he says is coming. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On January 28 2011 13:31 kitaman27 wrote: From past clue games I'm pretty sure there have always been at least one or two name references that get mixed in. That doesn't necessarily mean they will be present in this game, but its a possibility. This is where my noobness comes to shine, I wasn't aware of that. Anyway back to relevant discussion, do you guys have any input on LunarDestinies list of activity, from all two games I've played and reading through another couple, I agree with the Pandain/deconduo assessment, but I feel that RoL isn't being as active as I would expect since the election ended. Also who are we considering to lynch today? Last I saw it was between RoL and Nemesis, does anyone have any insight to offer on that? I'm tending more towards RoL both based on clues and the fact that he seems to have vanished into thin air. | ||
Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4152 Posts
lol. Great reasoning there LunarDestiny. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On January 28 2011 13:56 Impervious wrote: Somehow, I don't feel the need to spam up this thread like I did in the last mafia game I played in (seeing as this one is far more active). All of a sudden, I'm "under active"? lol. Great reasoning there LunarDestiny. In that last game you and I played with, you argued with good reasons. Very productive and very insightful. I do not see that in this game. | ||
Impervious
Canada4152 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On January 28 2011 13:56 Impervious wrote: Somehow, I don't feel the need to spam up this thread like I did in the last mafia game I played in (seeing as this one is far more active). All of a sudden, I'm "under active"? lol. Great reasoning there LunarDestiny. Ok. Just went over your posts. I saw 2 decent posts and a huge respond post after you had been called out by Kav. I consider that as under productive than the last game. | ||
Impervious
Canada4152 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
This is a blue claim. Townies should never just sit back till there's more to analyze. If every townie did this, they would never get anywhere. If you are a vanilla townie, your play is unacceptable. If you are a blue player, you've made yourself more obvious by drawing attention to this than anyone else has by calling you out. However, I'm inclined to believe that you are NOT a blue player. Last game that you played a blue role in was Salem, if my research is correct. You were an active medic in that game, that told people what to do. This seems contradictory to what you are doing now, and makes little sense. Yes, people can change their play styles, but history has show it's usefulness before. | ||
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On January 28 2011 14:28 Kavdragon wrote: This is a blue claim. Townies should never just sit back till there's more to analyze. If every townie did this, they would never get anywhere. If you are a vanilla townie, your play is unacceptable. If you are a blue player, you've made yourself more obvious by drawing attention to this than anyone else has by calling you out. However, I'm inclined to believe that you are NOT a blue player. Last game that you played a blue role in was Salem, if my research is correct. You were an active medic in that game, that told people what to do. This seems contradictory to what you are doing now, and makes little sense. Yes, people can change their play styles, but history has show it's usefulness before. Also, he could be a green wanting to draw attention to himself and absorb a hit. Bolding that definitely starts a whole bunch of WIFOM for both town and mafia. | ||
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 28 2011 04:34 Kavdragon wrote: ##Vote RebirthOfLeGend I'm still suspicious of RoL, but I think that we can afford to wait on him for another day. | ||
Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On January 28 2011 13:38 BrownBear wrote: Moving on to the really important bit: ANALYSIS OF HIS POSTS: His first post after the game has really gotten started. I can't tell if this is a subtle critique of Kav and kita's silly mayoral platforms, or whether he actually was serious from the get-go. Regardless, he gets more serious about his platform quickly: Oh wait nevermind. A soft endorsement of Kav. Going off of meta, which I agree with in terms of Kav being a good player and a reasonable dude. I'm sure he gets serious about his candidacy at some point... Not yet... BOOM. There we go. This is his real platform here. The most important thing here is, he tells us his playstyle. I've only played a couple games with him, but he plays pretty much like he said, so he is telling us the truth here. Not a very scummy move at all, giving the town the key with which to catch and lynch you. He goes on to talk about metastrategy regarding the other candidates. Here, I think he sells Dr. H a little bit short, (I think Dr. H is a pretty good player and a decent scumhunter) but he's very clear about what he wants the plan for town to be: He's not taking a central role, all faith is not placed in him, he's just playing the role almost of cheerleader, getting town to get psyched about catching scum, getting them all involved. That's not a scummy move at all, in fact that's the opposite. A scum mayor would be much more like "trust in me guys, I'll save you!", then lead town in circles while mafia ate them alive. RoL wants town to win, that much is clear from this post. He disappears for a while after this post, which is kind of strange. I guess his apathy got the better of him... He comes back after most people have abandoned his campaign and tries to save it with a few one liners that outline good strategy, but in a really lazy, half-assed way. Then: This is the core of his platform, and rehashes the above long post into a much more cohesive idea: Mayor-centric towns lose games. This is true. Also, he calls out Amber, which ended up being inconsequential - so far. Good honest debate here, discussing how the mason role works. Again, so far I haven't seen anything that's triggering my scumdar. I could go into Day 2, but not enough has been posted yet. CONCLUSION: It seems the only real case against RoL is from his inactivity Day 2 + one really tenuous clue connection. He's been outlining some very helpful practices town should be following, hasn't contradicted himself yet, and hasn't done anything obviously scummy. The only weird thing is his apathy. He's come out and posted great stuff, but very sporadically, and his heart doesn't really seem to be in this game like it has in the past. For that reason, I'm pegging him as Green, and a very apathetic green. What RoL should do is try and recapture some of the energy of past games, and get his ass in gear to provide this high quality analysis he says is coming. ehh while I'm not feeling the whole jump on RoL thing either I feel you clear him too easily based on almost leading yourself into passivity. I'm not sure the implications of decisions like this, but we can't really be waiting for people to 'slip up' or make obvious contradictions, because experienced players like him are far less likely to do something so blatant to everyone else. Sure he could define his meta and play like it but that's.... so easy isnt it? I mean there's no hard evidence against him, but there's no hard evidence for him. It's pretty hard to be getting too much on people this early into the game. Clues help, but it seems so far these clues have a few interpretations and the flip thing hardly comes into play after one kill sooo, keep an eye on your favourite people! I know I've got my eyes on people, but no one has really done anything, but we can't exactly wait can we... It's good that pressure is being put on people, I mean I keep pressuring myself to post more but I have to fight people around me just to get time on here lol, so I usually just have time to keep up on the thread but not write anything out. And why are impervious and lunar arguing over behaviour above me? If you think someone is guilty VOTE EM, post em, attack em! | ||
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Clues help, but it seems so far these clues have a few interpretations and the flip thing hardly comes into play after one kill sooo, keep an eye on your favourite people! I know I've got my eyes on people, but no one has really done anything, but we can't exactly wait can we... You seem to be writing in a very non commital way, softly pushing for RoL. Your post comes off as wishy washy. Mind posting some of the people you are keeping track off and why? Personally I disagree that we can't wait with lynching one of the potential deadliest townies. Regarding tube he was just as inactive as this in HPmafia, he managed to not get modkilled for like 3 days, with 1 post and 1 vote per day, and not a word on mafia IRC. Tube if you really want to play mafia here, start posting, or you got another modkill and a ban comming your way... | ||
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