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On January 28 2011 05:48 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote:
That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.
b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.
c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town. While I agree with you that SiNquity is not SK, I don't agree that a hit claim makes him town. He claimed to be hit, even if he is mafia, nothing can be used against him. Not even a counter claim can prove that he is lying. There's no disbenefit of claiming to be hit as mafia in this setup. While it is also likely that he is indeed town, he claimed to be hit to provided more information. The only thing I can take out of his claim is that if he die the subsequent, that he is very likely to be telling the truth and gives out more information on mafia's KP.
Well, the way I see it, mafia will not hit him again.
1) because medics might protect him
2) because he might be SK (highly unlikely)
3) because of WIFOM, that you just pointed out
But, assuming that there are 2 mafia kp (lowest we can assume), and 2 SK (not too much if initial setup was 5 mafia + 2sk - reasonable with 31 players), then we are, indeed, missing one hit (2 dead, one guy trailing Meapak = 3, where's the 4th?). And since nobody counter-claimed, it's unlikely that he is lying.
As I said, I don't want him to claim, I don't want other people to trust him and put him in circles, etc. I'm just saying, we have very very little information to go by in this game, and since I don't see any possible benefit in the mafia claiming, then it's safest to assume he's town.
Think about it, if two people claimed, they would be on the radar instantly. One of them would be very likely to be lying, and SiN said he was hit soon after the post, why would a mafia put themselves on the map like that?
In the end it doesn't matter, we're not trusting him with sensitive info, we don't need to lynch him, etc. So we can see what happens, and that's that, but if we ignore things like this, we'll have mostly WIFOM to go by the hole game, and I don't want that. 
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On January 28 2011 07:44 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 07:16 Kavdragon wrote:
The problem with DT claiming in this situation is that we have nothing to check him by. If he says someone is mafia, there's no way we can tell for sure.
Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup. That's actually a good point. However, using logic we should be able to deduce at least a decent guess as to how many blues we have. For example, a rule of thumb with most games played is to give town 1 fewer medics than there are KP. Assuming SIN is telling the truth, we have 3 KP in this setup (Mafia probably has 2, SK has 1), so logically, given that knowledge as well as the number of players in the game, we should have 2 medics. Problem is, we don't know how many of them have died yet. For all we know, Meapak and TheAldo were both our medics (very unlikely, I know, but still.)
But you are forgetting about the person who was at the site of Meapak's murder.
Since we have no "watchers"/"trackers" in this game, it's pretty safe to assume it was someone who wanted to kill meapak.
So, I would guess that there are 4KPs in this game, not 3.
Unless SiN is lying, then, just three.
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There seem to be a lot of people who are not posting anything. Are people always this inactive?
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On January 28 2011 09:09 darmousseh wrote:
There seem to be a lot of people who are not posting anything. Are people always this inactive?
Give me a list and I'll try to tell you.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 28 2011 09:12 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 09:09 darmousseh wrote:
There seem to be a lot of people who are not posting anything. Are people always this inactive? Give me a list and I'll try to tell you.
*Gives a gold star for trying to follow BC's advice
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On January 28 2011 09:09 darmousseh wrote:
There seem to be a lot of people who are not posting anything. Are people always this inactive?
I just got my power back and am getting my first look at the clues.
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On January 28 2011 09:09 darmousseh wrote:
There seem to be a lot of people who are not posting anything. Are people always this inactive?
Yes.
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+ Show Spoiler [Meapak_Ziph] +Some nights I thirst for real blood
Every city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night.
But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon.
For real knives
The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make.
For real cries
And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away...
And then the flash of steel from real guns
Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body.
The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone.
Who died: Meapak_Ziph
Cause of death: Gun shots, though he fleeing the pursuit of what appears to be by another assailant. Also, was it really the gun shot, or just a coincidental juxtaposition of lyrics and story? I don't think so but a possibility.
Setting: The clearing of a secluded forest at night, moon visible and shining brightly
Notes: Had to look up cloy: To cause distaste or disgust by supplying with too much of something originally pleasant, especially something rich or sweet; surfeit.
+ Show Spoiler [TheAldo] +In real life
And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on.
Really fills my mind
I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him.
How fitting.
You can’t hide
I could get used to this black blood.
Who died: TheAldo
Cause of death: Throat was slit by a knife
Setting: Forest
Notes: Contrasted heavily with Meapak, who was running through the forest rather loudly (jumping, snapping branches). He is "careful" and "disturbs nothing." Also deemed a coward for hiding and witnessing it, but doing nothing (perhaps suggesting he was a medic, i.e. he had the power to save him but didn't).
Thoughts:
Again with the knife slitting the throat, as in Night 0 and Day 1:
As the scientist’s struggle decreased, the intruder pulled a small, serrated switchblade from his pocket. He pressed it against Node’s throat and sawed.
I picked up the dropped switchblade, pressed it to the captains throat, and sawed.
However, as there were no clues in the Night 0 post, this may not be an actual clue.
Again with the use of lyrics interspersed throughout the story, though this appears to just be a theme of the game. So be careful with repeated words (i.e. in this case, "real/really") as this is typical of song lyrics in general.
Also, a parting thought.. MZ was running through a clearing, yet he's jumping over roots and snapping aside branches (i.e. not branches on the ground). This seems somewhat contradictory..
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On January 28 2011 10:33 SiNiquity wrote:
Cause of death: Gun shots, though he fleeing the pursuit of what appears to be by another assailant. Also, was it really the gun shot, or just a coincidental juxtaposition of lyrics and story? I don't think so but a possibility.
Also deemed a coward for hiding and witnessing it, but doing nothing (perhaps suggesting he was a medic, i.e. he had the power to save him but didn't
I'm more inclined to believe that his throat was slit, as that's how everyone except the assassin has dies thus far. But yes, this is speculation.
My original thought was that it was because he didn't post at all. That's an interesting interpretation, one that a sincerely hope is wrong.
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On January 28 2011 09:12 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 09:09 darmousseh wrote:
There seem to be a lot of people who are not posting anything. Are people always this inactive? Give me a list and I'll try to tell you.
- Amber[LighT] (13)
- Beneather (13)
- BrownBear (31)
- bumatlarge (34)
- Coagulation (9)
- CubEdIn (26)
- darmousseh (48)
- Divinek (5)
- DoctorHelvetica (21) / d3_crescentia (4)
- Eti307 (4)
- GMarshal (22)
- ilovejonn (31)
- Impervious (13)
- Jackal58 (31)
- Kavdragon (96)
- Kenpachi (13)
- kitaman27 (38)
- LunarDestiny (66)
- Meapak_Ziphh (36)
- Mr. Wiggles (52)
- Mr.Zergling (7)
- Nemesis (19)
- Nfi (2) / Barundar (10)
- OriginalName (9)
- Pandain (9) / deconduo (4)
- papapanda (12)
- RebirthOfLeGenD (37)
- SiNiquity (20)
- TheAldo (6)
- tube (3)
- zerroth (10)
And while I'm at it:
Names which could be clues:
- Coagulation: ...the drying blood staining his feet...
- LunarDestiny: And there in the clearing, in the moonlight...
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Wow, hopefully it picks up a bit before the lynch. I'm more confident in my read on RoL then on nemesis, who I'm kinda torn on being SK or not.
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voting for coagulation both for not posting and for the clue
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Amber has not posted since page 31 before the election was decided. Since then, he has contributed literally nothing. I find it suspicious that a normally active player is on the verge of mod-kill.
Coagulation does not have a single post of value. His greatest contribution so far has been wishing Pandain happy birthday.
Divinek has mentioned in past conversation that he loves to lurk as scum. 4 posts, none of which provide a trace of analysis.
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its not that i dont read the thread
i just dont post unless i see something worth posting about.
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This is a really good post which deserves more attention.
On January 28 2011 05:19 deconduo wrote:Okay, was a bit busy but now its time to dive in. I've got a spreadsheet up and running for clues so you guys can check it out. (Took wayyyy longer than I expected  ) As for today, some pretty good analysis coming out which is awesome. Bum pointed this out earlier but it seems to have gone ignored: + Show Spoiler +
Clue:
Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain.
Mr.Zergling's Profile:
Favorite Movie scene:
Cue, play, movie scene
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Thunder, lightning, rain
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
Scary Film/Bad Dream
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing!
This ticks almost all of the boxes.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 28 2011 11:59 Coagulation wrote:
its not that i dont read the thread
i just dont post unless i see something worth posting about.
Quick response. So there has been nothing this entire game that has been worth posting about? Not a single person that seems fishy? Not a single clue you could find that relates to someones profile?
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umm do you read my post's?
+ Show Spoiler +On January 26 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 14:24 Beneather wrote:On January 26 2011 14:15 TheAldo wrote:On January 26 2011 13:10 Nemesis wrote:Hi barundar  and obviously kav is going to check the number of mafias tonight right? Next day, I think it might be more beneficial to check the number of SK's. Why is it beneficial to check the number of SK's? It's more beneficial because we then know how many KP a night we're going to have. Since the regular mafia games have 5-6 mafia members and we know the formula then it would be atleast 3-4 KPs a night. I think knowing the number of SK will benefit the town to prepare for the number of KPs at night. referes to the mafia Kp count as "we're" and refers to the "town" in an outside perspective. Badly worded post or scumslip?
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if i see something worth mentioning i will post it.. posting for the sake of posting clutters thread.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 28 2011 12:07 Coagulation wrote:umm do you read my post's? + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 14:24 Beneather wrote:On January 26 2011 14:15 TheAldo wrote:On January 26 2011 13:10 Nemesis wrote:Hi barundar and obviously kav is going to check the number of mafias tonight right? Next day, I think it might be more beneficial to check the number of SK's. Why is it beneficial to check the number of SK's? It's more beneficial because we then know how many KP a night we're going to have. Since the regular mafia games have 5-6 mafia members and we know the formula then it would be atleast 3-4 KPs a night. I think knowing the number of SK will benefit the town to prepare for the number of KPs at night. referes to the mafia Kp count as "we're" and refers to the "town" in an outside perspective. Badly worded post or scumslip?
Posts? As in plural? Is there a second example?
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sure like now i can point out how extremely aggressive kitaman27 is pushing suspicion on me for no reason and say its starting to look scummy.
+ Show Spoiler +"So there has been nothing this entire game that has been worth posting about? Not a single person that seems fishy?"
i gave you an example that proves your blowing things out of proportion.
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EPT
