EPTTL Mafia XXXVI - Page 43
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
I will say this, I consider the way you analyzed the clues a little suspicious. From what the hosts showed us it is way more simple than that. Being tied by duct tape referred to Qatol's Burn Notice quote. Quite simple. Entire paragraphs detailing the scenery doesn't fit the bill for a clue. The reason I say that I find that method of clue reading suspicious is because the way to read it and the example shown seem obvious, and on top of that the BEST way for mafia to play aggressive without it being obvious is to abuse clues. A behavior analysis can be very hard from a mafia perspective while looking at a clue is just a matter making a person match a clue, not a clue match a person. Overall I thought his analysis was pretty weak. His conclusion just sums up what he said and makes it sound much better than it actually was. If you read the entire thing and read all of his points and look at his clue analysis with a critical eye it shouldn't be hard to realize his conclusion about me being red and his sureness doesn't seem to have the proof he is claiming. | ||
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Nemesis
Canada2568 Posts
On January 27 2011 15:32 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and how many mafia did you census Kavdragon? Its important! 5 mafia according to him. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
I was sad when I saw the pm because I thought I had ben recruited to pm land  | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
Although i doubt bum's role(and brownbear, a little bit), his clue analysis seems legit...RoL is basically only stating that bum is abusing clue-->so bum is mafia and clue are more simple(?) than the way bum is analyzing them. Bleh this is why i dislike the clues, please don't lynch anyone just because of clues!!!! | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 27 2011 23:42 papapanda wrote: so siN is a vet? (or SK teehee:D) Although i doubt bum's role(and brownbear, a little bit), his clue analysis seems legit...RoL is basically only stating that bum is abusing clue-->so bum is mafia and clue are more simple(?) than the way bum is analyzing them. Bleh this is why i dislike the clues, please don't lynch anyone just because of clues!!!! Wait so who of them do you think is innocent and who are you suspecting here? | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On January 27 2011 22:52 Jackal58 wrote: So that's 3. 2 mafia 1 SK?. Yeah it seems so. And Kav said that he got 5 mafias. Now, it doesn't really matter if OM was mafia or not, we can safely assume that there are 5 mafia (kp would be #of mafia / 2 rounded down) and 1 SK. That is, if nobody else comes forward. I'll get to the post/clues analysis later, don't have much time now and it's a sh*tstorm in here anyway, but I wanted to address one issue first: Should census be used for anything else? I mean, if nobody else comes forward then we have a clear number of "reds": 6 (5+1). Which means that we don't really need to know more information at the moment. Kav should have the option to count blues or something, but not to share it with the town, maybe if he was in a town circle or something. I suggest that we use it for mafia numbers, as it's super-important to know if our lynches are on-target. Also, if I'm correct about the KPs and Kav is not lying about the mafia numbers, then we need to kill 2 mafia before we can drop their KP to 1. This may not seem important, but it means that they CAN afford to sacrifice someone to get to the mayor without losing a KP. That is, of course, if a red is among the two BGs | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
These clues are a bit easier than the ones that will be found in normal day posts. Please note that the hosts said the night 0 clues were easier than the rest would be. There will be a clue in the day post for each person who died. For example, if 15 people suddenly died, there would be 15 clues. However how someone died may or may not be a clue. Note that last line. Nemesis, clues can be found anywhere. Meapak's death could contain both or non of the clues. On January 27 2011 11:39 LunarDestiny wrote: And then the flash of steel from real guns From Nemesis: Also a Flash fan This is by far the most compelling clue I've found thus far. It's not quite as obvious as duct tape, but it's in a very similar form. | ||
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papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
On January 27 2011 23:48 Barundar wrote: Wait so who of them do you think is innocent and who are you suspecting here? First, bum's last minute mayor vote randomize try was suspicious, as many people already pointed out. Also he is dropping a ton of pressure on RoL with the clues. Second, brownbear was kinda acting scummy when he agreed to bum's idea imediately. Do you guys realise that bb switched from RoL-->Kav and then back with the following reason: On January 26 2011 02:43 BrownBear wrote: ##Unvote: Kavdragon ##Vote: RebirthOfLegenD Gotta go with my gut on this one. Lastly its RoL, who, as i see it, is not responding with any logical reasoning, and is instead only counter accusing bum(where i read somewhere that it is a trait of mafias:D) Conclusion: bum is suspicious based on rash actions; might need to keep our heads up. RoL has some obvious clues(that i REALLY do not want to go by)but is also acting a bit suspicious, again, I would keep a close eye on... I think bum and RoL both have greater influence over the town BUT... until further info... BB has been jumping all over the place and backing off real fast when he feels threatened, and, perhaps most outstandingly, doesn't have any legit reason behind most of his actions. Right now I am "going with my guts" on my vote on BB for lynch(not because of clues, i would like to point out, but because of his actions). *haha, unsure of some gramatical structure of english, too much SAT classes recently my head is a bit messed up>< | ||
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papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
What probably happened. SK and mafia happen to pick the same target. SK ends up being the killer. Read this carefully. And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. Really fills my mind I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. I read this as, SK kills meapak. mafia tries to kill meapak, but SK already did it so he just shrudders and continues on. Mafia kills thealdo. There is no indication that the person that witnessed the incident and thealdo are the same person. From my reading of the story, they are probably different people. From the clues that have been posted, so far here are my conclusions. RebirthOfLegend is an SK. Nemesis is scum. My reasoning for RoL being an SK is that he has been apprehensive about everything and initially didn't vote himself as mayor. The reason he ended up deciding to try for mayor at all is to prevent a scum from being mayor since he thought there was a possibility that kav was scum. He also is very active so far and has helped more with analysis than a mafia would, but there clues against him are present in the story and he can't deny it. Since he is acting on his own, he has very little support from mafia players and is kinda being surrounded. If he was truly scum, then he would have probably put more effort into becoming mayor. Nemsis, then by elimination, is the scum. He is desperately trying to combat all information we gather in clues. Here are some recent posts. 5 mafia according to him. sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap? Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths.... Next day, I think it might be more beneficial to check the number of SK's. kitaman, I would rather not depend on clues over post analysis. And fine, if you think the clue leads to him, and want him lynched for the first day. Don't you already have kavdragon's support? Why discuss it further if kav has already decided to lynch him? I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. Almost all of his posts have a negative attitude towards the value of clues and the value of things which would help townies get more information about SKs. He has provided 1 post which attempted to find clues on the killer and in that post he said To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. Yet he is basically the only one proposing that the analysis done so far was crap. Almost all of the analysis so far seems very spot on and is confirmed by multiple players. Therefore, for this lynch I propose we lynch nemesis since he is scum and tomorrow we can check the # of mafia to see if we are right. If there is only 1 SK, which I propose is RebirthOfLegend, then there is no harm in letting him live 1 more day since we are likely to get more clues after the next night and we can doubley confirm him and confirm that it is indeed a SK via # of kills. Also the clues pointing towards RoL aren't as decisive as the ones pointing to nemesis. The reason to vote RoL tonight would be to lower the # of SK to 0. If we want, a vig can hit RoL, but I think we should save the Vig for later so we can doubly check to make sure he is actually the SK. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On January 27 2011 14:46 Nemesis wrote: sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap? Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths. That means that the clues in the first night points to two different people. Now if you look at the statements that he took from the clues, those are spread out all over the place in the day post. They can be found in both deaths. So unless you are saying that both clues point to me, then that part of your clue analysis is crap. Second of all, this one is just a bit of speculation on how clues work, but the italicized parts and the bold parts feel a bit like red herring. If you look at Night 0's clue, none of the actual clues are found within the italicized parts. Third of all, that kind of feels forced. Well I don't necessarily blame you since you probably don't really understand what my quote is from, and what a reality marble is. A reality marble is magic that forces the reality in your mind to come to life in the real world. So using real as a clue to point to me is rather farfetched. And I just had to facepalm when you bolded really. That just kind of seems too forced. To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. For example, someone has a picture of a character from a movie. Then there was something in the clue that could be related to that movie but to a different character in the movie. Mods won't go that far to make the clues as vague as possible. Remember that the clue is directly related to the Profile, not second-hand relation. I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. From Gmarshal's profile ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/62033.jpg?1295165578) As for the second kill, all I could find so far was this: From Kitaman's Profile: "Keeper Yes, my lord; But yet I cannot help you." "Surveyor 'If,' quoth he, 'I for this had been committed, As, to the Tower, I thought, I would have play'd The part my father meant to act upon The usurper Richard; who, being at Salisbury, Made suit to come in's presence; which if granted, As he made semblance of his duty, would Have put his knife to him.'" Now obviously I haven't read all of kitaman's profile so I'm not really sure if I'm taking those out of context. I'll read it when I have the time, but if someone who knows the story there can help me if anything could be related to the clues, I would appreciate it. And of course lynching based on clues alone would be stupid unless the clues are pretty damning, so I will hold out on my vote for now. 2 things. 1. I'm examining Gmarshal's profile, but so far, only that 1 thing seems to be similar. I haven't found any information otherwise. 2. That quote is waaaaaaaaaaay down in the kitamans' profile. My guess is you just ctrl-f'd and searched for a bunch of buzz words from the story and came up with 2 very vague words (knife and help) and since kita's profile is so large, the chances of buzzwords being the same is very high. Not so obvious of a clue I think. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2011 01:55 darmousseh wrote: Nemsis, then by elimination, is the scum. He is desperately trying to combat all information we gather in clues. Here are some recent posts. Almost all of his posts have a negative attitude towards the value of clues and the value of things which would help townies get more information about SKs. Anyone find it hypocritical that Nemesis spends so much time bashing the clue analysis and then proceeds to attempt to find two weak clue references to myself and GMarshal? It should also be noted that Nemesis was one of the more vocal RoL supporters for mayor and neither suspect has attempted to turn on each other yet. On January 28 2011 01:55 darmousseh wrote: If we want, a vig can hit RoL, but I think we should save the Vig for later so we can doubly check to make sure he is actually the SK. I believe SK block vig hits since they are bulletproof, so if you are sure he is a SK then a vig hit would be more of a confirmation shot, than a kill shot. If you believe he is mafia, then a vig shot would certainly be appropriate, however. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. I feel like that is probably a clue, but I can't find anything in any profile. Also theres a bunch of stuff about noises. Anyone else have any luck? Also Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there probably has some clue in it, but again no luck. Other than that, we have like 33 hours until night. I'll try to see if these clues correspond to anything. | ||
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