EPTBtw, people seem to think that SK would be willing to ally with the town. Very unlikely. The only way they die is lynch, so they have nothing to fear from mafia, and everything to fear from town. We are their biggest threat, so they will more likely sit on the side till one side gains the upper hand, or try to snipe townies.
TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 41
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Btw, people seem to think that SK would be willing to ally with the town. Very unlikely. The only way they die is lynch, so they have nothing to fear from mafia, and everything to fear from town. We are their biggest threat, so they will more likely sit on the side till one side gains the upper hand, or try to snipe townies. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On January 27 2011 11:17 kitaman27 wrote: First thing that comes to mind points to RoL. Murder scene could be the road less traveled. I quickly glanced through all of the of the profiles and the only hint i could find was in RoL's profile Does it dry up which would correspond to the story He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
For real knives For real cries And then the flash of steel from real guns In real life Really fills my mind You can’t hide Nemesis Archer's Reality Marble: Reality Marble "I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
From story Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed From RoL's profile And then run? | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
From Nemesis: Also a Flash fan | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 27 2011 11:24 Kavdragon wrote: I'll make a longer post on this, but I'm pretty sure that TheAldo was an SK hit. It makes no sense for the mafia to hit him, and some sense for an SK who wants to sit this out till he can figure out who is winning. Btw, people seem to think that SK would be willing to ally with the town. Very unlikely. The only way they die is lynch, so they have nothing to fear from mafia, and everything to fear from town. We are their biggest threat, so they will more likely sit on the side till one side gains the upper hand, or try to snipe townies. Any particular reason you haven't immediately posted the census results? Waiting to hear who may or may not have absorbed a hit gives more room for manipulation. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Some nights I thirst for real blood And then the flash of steel from real guns "I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." | ||
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ilovejonn
Canada2548 Posts
On January 27 2011 11:40 kitaman27 wrote: Any particular reason you haven't immediately posted the census results? Waiting to hear who may or may not have absorbed a hit gives more room for manipulation. On January 27 2011 11:13 Kavdragon wrote: Rest in peace brother Meapak_Ziph. See you in another life. In other news, I've been informed that there are 5 mafia. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Oh, thanks. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
bumatlarge: "i live in the subway" = place no one would venture at night? Kavdragon has the image of a winged foot= fleeing (like Meapak?) ? Divinek: the puck is black (but we've seen alot about black already so most likely a decoy) Impervious: "hard as stone" = impervious to damage (it’s a stretch I know) As an aside @Kitaman: The entirety of King Henry VIII, really? BrownBear's :"I really really like cookies. And kitty cats." That by itself is cause for suspicion, looks like its trying to hard to fit in  RoL: "in a wood", "And then run?"= (Meapak_Ziph runs away from his killer) | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
Otherwise FoSNemesis. investigating RoL. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6788 Posts
 I'm sad... gg. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
From his profile I will look for you, I will find you, and I will ban you. From the theme song You can’t hide Also the fact that he was running away. I still think there has to be something with the noises and sounds stuff in the post though. Investigating that next. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
This quote hints there was stack hits on Meapak. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On January 27 2011 12:07 LunarDestiny wrote: And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. This quote hints there was stack hits on Meapak. I dont see how you get that from the text, I think you are reading too much into it. The "coward" is TheAldo who was hiding from whom ever was killing Meapak. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Dear Impervious: WTF?: On January 24 2011 22:51 Impervious wrote: I'm gonna have to vote for RebirthOfLeGenD. Unexplained vote on RoL This was followed by him lurking(self described, not just my opinion) till he made these posts: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. Maybe, but If I'm town I'd be doing the exact same thing: looking for a scummy person and leading the town through example by analyzing him. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, Yes, you are correct that it is impossible to know with absolute certainty that i am town or that the information that I give is correct. This is true of any game. trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. Wrong. A mafia mayor would try to mislead the town down an unfruitful path, not encourage them to do actual analysis. Most mafia stay away from analysis because it's hard to write an argument against someone you know is innocent. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Kind-of-sort-of but not really. The town does not split the votes 50/50 between candidates. One will look like a better choice to most, and the majority of the town will vote for that one. While yes, a single player would get more votes as mafia given the exact same campain and posts, it's NOT true that on average mafia mayors get more votes than town mayors. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. WTF? You say that a mafia mayor would get more votes because mafia would vote for him. Then based off that, you say that we should lynch people who voted for me? You are calling me scum?( If I'm not scum, why would scum vote for me? If scum didn't vote for me, why lynch people who voted for me?) Lemme get this straight: You think that I'm mafia because i won. LOL. By your logic we should always lynch the mayor! Just because the mafia can stack a few votes on their candidate doesn't mean that they will win every time. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Wait, so you're advocating that we RNG the lynch? We have 30 pages of information, and I don't see you using any of it. Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. Lol, "worried". If you're so worried, why don't you analyze me! Put some money where your mouth is, and start actually contributing. (And don't say there's not enough information to analyze me, I've posted twice as much as almost anyone. There's TONS of material to pick from) Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Wrong. Why do you think that town would split 50/50? Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. Look, Analysis trumps statistics every time. If this game could be won with stats, it would be played with a calculator in math club. It's not. It's an analysis game. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. Oh good lord, this makes me sad. no, no, and no. Who did this backfire against? Bum? He was certainly not the most vocal person. Is this an attempt to scare people into being quiet? Here, let me speak your language: Statistically speaking, more than half the players are town. This means that statistically speaking, if we lynch someone, they are town. You're not even getting the statistics right either. Show me why the town is likely to split 50/50. Please, we have been extremely fortunet to have so much information to go on for the first day. The mafia will try to discourage us from doing analysis, saying "there's not enough information to go by" or "It's day one, nothing's happened". This is exactly the kind of complacency that gets the town killed. So far I'm the only person doing analysis. This too, is a sure road to failure. As RoL said, leaving the work of the town to one person will end in a loss for the town. I won't be right about every lynch, the town needs to work too. Clues are a good start, but we cannot win based off of clues. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 27 2011 11:28 darmousseh wrote: I quickly glanced through all of the of the profiles and the only hint i could find was in RoL's profile which would correspond to the story That seems like a ridiculous stretch. I was roleblocked last night. | ||
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