EPTWe all first met at a party in Florida. A ‘pre-sailing’ party as they said. We all applied to start a colony on an unnamed island in the Caribbeans. We were going to be heroes, the founders of a city, the explorers of the modern age.
TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 39
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On January 27 2011 05:00 Eti307 wrote: Sure the game is about analyzing, but before the first kills/night actions it's hard to actually analyse anything imo. There will be much more discussion to do once the first night is over Well especially in a set up like this it's harder to gain as much from NKs, because naturally not all of them may be town. The sk could hit a mafia etc, and you have no idea what you lost. All you can hope to grasp at is the fact that someone is dead, and they were likely town, it can be a large waste of time to try and discern why because mafia may have weird reasons we are unaware of because they have more information than us. So really all you're waiting for is more people to be dead lol, but the extra clues will be nice | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On January 27 2011 05:08 kitaman27 wrote: As mentioned before, this paragraph seems very odd to me. If anyone is bored, here might be a place to start. The only connection I could find was the fact that TheAldo is from Flordia or the hero references in multiple different profiles. It seems like there could be something else though that I'm missing. He's quote is also about god. I missed that like a pro. "You know you've created god in your own image when it turns out he hates all of the people you do." - Anne Lamott | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 26 2011 15:03 Kavdragon wrote: My Case for Bumatlarge: On January 22 2011 01:35 bumatlarge wrote: Please don't kill me first,  Post analysis: Lol, wut? So it would be better to have a really good player who is scum in the mayor seat, than a bad townie? In standard set-up, yes. Good players can't make mistakes and play them off. They will be pressured to play town to the best of their abilities. New or bad mayors tend to make lots of mistakes, and the "legitimate mistake" card comes up a lot and it only hurts town's overall play. Contradicts his earlier statement. He says that he doesn't want a clue-crapshoot, but the only way to avoid this is analysis, something that he hasn't done any of. Says he doesn't want a crap shoot, but wants to RNG the mayor. He says that RoL OR Kav is scum, but is unwilling to do an analysis of the two of us. Just two people. This game is based off of analysis, not probability. I think it's fairly clear to see these are posts made with different information. In every other set-up with mayor I have played, there are multiple work-arounds to a scum mayor, ways to check what they are doing with their powers is pro-town. I mistakenly assumed mayor was similar to these games, where mafia mayors happened all the time. Mayor is the only role that receives sound information about dead players. We really have no way to check if you are lying, and no way to find this information on our own. I think it's pretty clear the gravity of the mayoral situation did not sink in until much later. I was unfortunately a very late-bloomer to the that realization. It then occurred having only 2 candidates would likely result in a mafia win, which I'm still uncertain about. Whether you prefer anaylsis or probability, it doesn't change the fact that there is no downside for mafia to win the election. You would have to be severely naive to think they wouldn't 99 times out of 100 give it a shot. Please read the mayor description again and tell me mafia won't run for that with a straight face. Confident in your abilities, but at this time, if you decided to keep tabs on when these were all being posted, I wasn't sincerely worried town would lose if you did happen to be mafia. Read that link about Darth in my quote above. If that was this set-up, and he won, he could legitimately state "I am mafia, and will be lynching myself first" and mafia would have been in a better position then they were in that set-up. You can't disagree with that. On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. On January 26 2011 09:13 bumatlarge wrote: I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town Changes his opinion without saying why. Why would he so confidantly vote for someone he didn't think was town? Putting words in mouth? You being very selective with my quotes, but I don't mind. Here, let's match the up. + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 14:56 bumatlarge wrote: It's better to have a good player as mayor regardless of alignment then someone who you know might be prone to mistakes. On January 23 2011 15:44 bumatlarge wrote: Well. I've quickly scanned through Mercmafia and BCE, and I like what I see. Very active townie who takes care in what he says. He'd probably assume a DarthThienMayor persona if he is scum. Not very flexible, but hard to get rid of. Just need to keep an eye on him. All in all, a very capable mayor. He has my vote. On January 25 2011 12:52 bumatlarge wrote: Gonna put my vote on kav, and if he can spot a few more clues on different folks and finalize his statement on picking BG's, my vote is staying there. This Bum seems to be confident he can win the game regardless of mayor's alignment. Clearly, he is overlooking mayor's abilities. If this Bum was scum, what exactly is he trying to do? Downplay the role of mayor certainly! He doesn't necessarily say Kav is town, but with this mindset, he feels it won't hamper him or the town if Kav was not. On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. ... On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. On January 26 2011 09:13 bumatlarge wrote: I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town This Bum is severely different. He realizes how bad it would be for mafia to have mayor. He sounds not at all confident that town will not win if mayor is red. His decisions are rash and he apparently is very quick to point out he never had an opinion on the alignment of the candidates. He brings needless attention to himself that completely contradicts his previous motives as scum; to underplay the value of mayor. He doesn't really care if he gains any FoS about saying one of the candidates must be scum. He's either a mafia with amnesia, or he's a townie who had a sudden realization about something. Starts a concerted push for RNG'ing the mayor. As has been pointed out before it's a terrible plan that is very easily influenced by the mafia. He also starts this with 1.5 hours before the end of the day. I did push that with the intention of extending the time to allow more thought on RNG which I believed to be a decent choice for town to take, though i do see the method I choose could lead to some problems with people picking too late and what not. But if time was extended, we could have generated a lot more discussion on to the election, which is much more valuable then discussing the way BGs are picked, though I am not saying that isn't an important facet. I was being purposefully impulsive and if I brought the focus to the really important matter and in the process I put myself out there, so be it. Backs out of his plan, and tries to dismiss it as only an idea. This was not the feeling I got from the posts, and judging by the fact that BB followed along, I'd say that he got the same message from Bum. Right after my time extension got denied. I don't regret posing the idea like something I was trying to carry out. People tend to lost track of what they are talking about. Look at aidnai's post. That's pretty sad how much attention that got. This is the core of your argument. (bolded) You are basing your argument off of something that may or may not be true. Sound familiar? Also, from what I've gathered from other games, the typical meta from mafia recently has been "Lie back and let the town destroy itelf" not "Activly engage the town". But this is wifom too. I COMPLETELY DISAGREE. If a person can increase your chances of winning at least 3-fold, with just the risk of putting yourself out there. I cannot fathom why they would not. That's all I have. I am not just assuming they had a candidate, I am certain they did. Alright, if mafia didn't run for mayor, then the entire mafia team is stupid. This isn't WIFOM, because in one case I am right, and in another town wins anyway. Unfortunately, being right isn't very satisfying for me, I'd rather town winning with my help. That's why I play. This is my contribution at the moment. Ending with that, I will concentrate my focus on the upcoming clues. Of course, I will analyze everyone I put a clue on. Diagnosis This looks like scummy play to me. Perhaps overly scummy, but this could be explained: This game has no flipping, which means that the mafia do not need to worry about being dissasociated with eachother as much. If Bum and BB are scum, they don't need to worry about agreeing with eachother, because if one of them flips, the town still knows nothing about their alignment. This could very easily make a mafia more cocky, and forward with their posting. Conclusion: Bumatlarge is scum. I wouldn't feel I was playing the game properly if I wasn't forward with my opinions. Perhaps I should be less forward? Never thought of myself as cocky either. I'll take it as a compliment. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 26 2011 09:29 bumatlarge wrote: Considering there is a better chance of him being red, I guess I will. Though RoL should be more vocal. Alright RoL TIME TO WIN YOU TOWNIE. Just curious, what indicated to you that Kavdragon was more likely scum than RoL. And since that was the case, why would you wait for someone suggesting RoL rather than voting him in the first place. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:04 kitaman27 wrote: Just curious, what indicated to you that Kavdragon was more likely scum than RoL. And since that was the case, why would you wait for someone suggesting RoL rather than voting him in the first place. Initially I thought Kav running before he got his alignment was better, and figured Dr.H could have been mafia candidate, and it would be very suspicious for decon to continue the campaign, but rather then look at it as his chances of rolling mafia, I looked at how many people really tried to win against him. I thought this when whoever suggested RoL instead, and RoL was really the only person vs Kav, I didn't mind switching. RoL would have to be a pretty poor shot at a mafia candidate. After night ends, I want to try to spend the time I have left looking at clues and analyzing, so I'd prefer to answer curious people right now. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:17 bumatlarge wrote: After night ends, I want to try to spend the time I have left looking at clues and analyzing, so I'd prefer to answer curious people right now. Uncle bum, where to babies come from? | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6784 Posts
When a man and a woman love each other very much... | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: When a man and a woman love each other very much... And then the stork gets involved, and the man doesn't know about it. And then he comes home one day, and finds out his wife is pregnant. But he never learns about the stork, never about the stork... | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6784 Posts
... I also have a rl paper I need to write so I won't be very active at the start of the day. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:04 kitaman27 wrote: Just curious, what indicated to you that Kavdragon was more likely scum than RoL. And since that was the case, why would you wait for someone suggesting RoL rather than voting him in the first place. Thing is Kav started his campaign well before roles were passed out. If he is scum it's pure RNG. I'd be more concerned with the few that started to campaign after Day 1 post. Are you your brothers keeper? Babies come from aisle 7 at WalMart. At least that's where my wife tells me ours came from. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me. You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game. At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now? The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not. Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:31 Jackal58 wrote: Thing is Kav started his campaign well before roles were passed out. If he is scum it's pure RNG. I'd be more concerned with the few that started to campaign after Day 1 post. Are you your brothers keeper? Babies come from aisle 7 at WalMart. At least that's where my wife tells me ours came from. I think it's time to move on past the kavdragon, ROL, bum mayor and election stuff. There simply isn't enough information to reveal anything except that bum changes his mind faster than a girl, says a few semi-contradictory like many girls and reacts emotionally to kavs accusations just like a girl. Conclusion: Bum is a female, or an alien, or drunk.  | ||
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Impervious
Canada4170 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:35 Kavdragon wrote: Bum: I don't want to get totally sidetracked onto JUST analyzing you, but here are a few responses to your defense. I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me. You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game. At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now? The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not. Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game. Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. I have a bad habit of relying on information over analysis and I suggest you shake that now, especially in this set-up. Kav is saying, we can't just say one of them is mafia without analysis, which I agree with. If you want to judge Kav or RoL, you should take at least as much consideration into what you analyze about them then what you get from information that inevitably leads to WIFOM at this stage. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On January 27 2011 09:37 darmousseh wrote: I think it's time to move on past the kavdragon, ROL, bum mayor and election stuff. There simply isn't enough information to reveal anything except that bum changes his mind faster than a girl, says a few semi-contradictory like many girls and reacts emotionally to kavs accusations just like a girl. Conclusion: Bum is a female, or an alien, or drunk. I'm quite fluent in drunk speak. Bum is not drunk. Whether he is a female alien is irrelevant to the problem at hand. You were one of the ones to attempt to mount a mayoral campaign. You're worthy of close observation. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4170 Posts
On January 27 2011 10:00 bumatlarge wrote: But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. I have a bad habit of relying on information over analysis and I suggest you shake that now, especially in this set-up. Kav is saying, we can't just say one of them is mafia without analysis, which I agree with. If you want to judge Kav or RoL, you should take at least as much consideration into what you analyze about them then what you get from information that inevitably leads to WIFOM at this stage. Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. | ||
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Node
United States2159 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On January 27 2011 10:20 GMarshal wrote: Well, this is interesting, waiting to see if I survived the night, I really want to get my hands on these clue though! It should be interesting to see what we can come up with. I just hope no clues pointing toward the bodyguards. | ||
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