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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 27 2011 13:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I was roleblocked last night. Anyone going to counterclaim? Not that there can't be two role blockers, but it does make things more interesting. (Actually, Has anyone seen a setup with 2 role blockers?) | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Brief Overview # of posts: 36 Ran for mayor, and has posted once since mayor was picked. In Depth On January 25 2011 18:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Yeah that's true. I think we haven't really discussed how important census is either. Obviously the first night we should check to see how many mafia there are so we can periodically check our progress. I suggest every other night we check mafia and figure something else out that is useful to do. My current thoughts are N1 check all mafia count. N2 we check serial killer count. That should give us an idea of the KP count. It might even give us insight into clues if we understand how many of the night kills are ALWAYS going to be attributed to the SK's. From previous games if the mafia KP formula is X/2 = KP where X is total mafia members then each night KP/clues will alternate between the players while SK's own their KP solely and we don't have to worry about overlapping. I think the best way to attempt to use census is constantly alternating between checking SK's and checking mafia total count that way we kind of have an idea of how many mafia/SK are left and can judge our progress and get an idea of a mafia pushed a bad lynch thinking we couldn't tell the difference. The reasoning being that I expect mafia to attempt to be more aggressive in this set up since there is no flips so they don't face true repercussions for their actions. The only issue with this plan is it relies on the mayor being honest and town aligned. Its another reason we need a town aligned mayor, census will give us a HUGE advantage that I woudln't want to throw away. Personally I think Kav is probably a townie so I am not too worried about either one of us getting it. Although I do find it strange that the mafia aren't vying for such a powerful role which is what makes me a bit suspicious of Kav, but my read on him is he wouldn't be comfortable enough to do this his first game as mafia and I will stick to that I suppose. Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to try to do some actual clue and behavioral analysis as well as look over the OG guy. Since Day ends tomorrow one of us has to decide on a lynch target for sure. RoL is definitely aware of what census does, but rather then see it as a necessity, it's just an advantage. States he believes Kav is town, and is apathetic to who wins. And also, Kav has been mafia before I believe, but that might be my fault if RoL read my post on Kav, as I missed the game he was red. Gives general info on what usually is the set-up. Promises A&C (analysis and clues). I straightforward candidate ATM. On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more". Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting. I will switch my vote back too kav. I personally feel RoL is underestimating masons here. Getting recruited means you are in contact with a confirmed townie if roles hold true. Though with no-flip, and census being focused on mafia, it would be difficult to refute a fake-claim. Say on day 3, someone might say "Oh a mason PM'd me and he is contact with DT," we don't have much to check this, as a DT won't confirm anything by checking proclaimee. Agh enough, this is about RoL. He doesn't want town to focus all the info between a small group, which seems unlikely, as mayor can safely give census details publicly. And A&C can be done by everyone. If a mason is able to connect things, he should. On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that  Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more. "Everyone should A&C!" No wonder Kav is getting ansy with people. Perhaps if RoL made an actual effort. on Amber, instead of playing the "I want to FoS you but I'm not going to" game. On January 25 2011 13:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Kav, my entire platform is not to put all your eggs in one potentially scum basket. By revolving everything around the mayor you are dooming the town. Stop with the stupidity. I am leaning towards Amber[LighT] for my Day 1 lynch. "Yeah Kav don't be stupid, let town's overwhelming analyzing be our focal point!........ By the way this is the person I want to lynch. Cyas" :/ Doubt I need to say much. On January 25 2011 13:08 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I remember a while ago they used to ban that in games. I guessed we stopped though. Running before the game started is stupid and doesn't give you shit to analyze. They can use it as a point of trust when they could of lucked their way into a strong mafia position. Well, I tried to not consider this when I was determining between Kav and RoL. RoL just plain doesn't like it! Not one bit! On January 25 2011 13:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: To answer this. I generally don't like voting for myself in an election, I feel like its bad taste. But if people are going to think I am conceding the position when I just pushing for it then I will change my vote. What a charlatan! Praise his deeds! Another post that isn't analysis on clues or behavior. If kav posted this, I would have ignored it in my analysis, but RoL doesn't get that luxury. On January 25 2011 04:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: To answer what you said amber, the reason I responded about my playstyle was to save drh the time of reading about what I do as mafia. I don't think I spent too much time discrediting him, all I really said was he could be a really dangerous mayor, especially if hes mafia. And I didn't see the day 1 lynch thing in the OP. A lot of "how I play" and "why I do" If people started to doubt your actions, I'd be one of the first to defend them, but seeing as you have yet to do much, well I have nothing to defend. Now, if he did say it was too early to analyze, I'd cut slack, but there are clues on the table. On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you. As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created. I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom. Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why. In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches. Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die. Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck. DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk. Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor. Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it. Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia. Here we are, let's break it down. "As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do." :/ grave digging. I'd say you are being extremely conservative this game, when you propose your lynch based on when a person you know isn't supposed to be posting, and praising your opposing candidate for his levelheadedness. A summary of this post: I am a smart player. You will be able to see that I am not mafia through my arguments. I am tired. Everyone WILL analyze, or we lose. Dr. H is to tunneled in his thought process, dangerous mayor no matter his alignment. Kav is good, but has no experience for this sort of thing. I am the obvious choice. Let's all analyze! FOR SCOTLAND! I believe that to be accurate. On January 24 2011 16:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and as for my general apathy, I am just tired as hell lately. When does the day end anyway? Duuuuude.... if you tired you could just sit back and not run for mayor. I mean maybe you honestly think there is nothing to analyze? On January 24 2011 16:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: God, I am so dumb. I can't believe I didn't put those together lol While it is a mistake, it is reassuring for RoL's sake. He is tired apparently, it's not just an excuse. While I am trying to get over my information fix, knowing the game you are playing is the first step in the process of being a good townie. This is a bit hypocritical for me to talk about, so I won't say anymore. On January 24 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: My platform would be self explanatory. I am a decent scumhunter, a high n1 hit target. That's about it. either you want me as a leader or you don't. Either way I am fine with it. I don't consider it mattering that much which is why I didn't go all out with mspaint and shit. Smart play here but at the same time... As mafia I would kinda expect RoL not to push the envelope in trying to get the win. As town, I think he would normally give a rebuttal on a superior way to do what Kav is doing, and carry through with it. On other players, I would say it is vice-versa, but I believe this doesn't give RoL leeway if it isn't a small tell for him in particular. On January 26 2011 13:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh well, so I lost the election. Kav what are you going to do with Census? I'm going to go ahead and say RoL is not active at this time, and I'm reluctant to give anybody shit, for what they do in their time. I hope to see he is rested up and comes back with less invigorating speeches about analyzing, and more analyses that inspire analysis. That said, RoL fits the glove. I stand by what I said about mafia having a candidate no matter what. 5 mafia means RoL would have about 4 votes. I dismissed him because of his low numbers, but then again, he wouldn't have his team "put all their eggs in one basket" to use RoL's own words. He gave Mayor a shot, knowing if he was mayor, he would have a free game. He saw Kav's dedication, knew he was town with superior numbers and apparently a lot more vitality. Clue linking I believe RoL was the mafia candidate, and my good friend kita was nice enough to find this first. On January 27 2011 11:17 kitaman27 wrote: First thing that comes to mind points to RoL. Murder scene could be the road less traveled. Something. On January 27 2011 11:28 darmousseh wrote: I quickly glanced through all of the of the profiles and the only hint i could find was in RoL's profile which would correspond to the story Closer, let me elaborate. RoL's poems are taken from R. Frost and L. Hughes respectively. Both poem might have pertinence to the initial day 1 clue. Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. Hughes quote about dreams seems subtle, but a dream deterred that festers? Maybe an english major can enlighten me. From what my memory tells me, Robert Frost is famous for his descriptions. An example. + Show Spoiler + Tree at my window, window tree, My sash is lowered when night comes on; But let there never be curtain drawn Between you and me. Vague dream-head lifted out of the ground, And thing next most diffuse to cloud, Not all your light tongues talking aloud Could be profound. But tree, I have seen you taken and tossed, And if you have seen me when I slept, You have seen me when I was taken and swept And all but lost. That day she put our heads together, Fate had her imagination about her, Your head so much concerned with outer, Mine with inner, weather. I think day 1 clues need to be vague, so if I was to make a vague clue, I would take the author of one of RoL's poems and base it on what he would make a clue. If Frost doesn't write about trees and nature, then I am homeowner. The first part of day 1 and Meapak's death are fine examples of something like this. + Show Spoiler + Some nights I thirst for real blood Every city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night. But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon. For real knives The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real cries And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. This whole section in a forest is just about what I would expect. I have no comment for the bolded words referring to darkness and black. I am not certain clues would be split up, but the drying blood could very well point to what darm said. So, to summarize what I have learned. ANALYSIS RoL is a tired candidate who needs to run for mayor. Speaks of what town should do, but hasn't supplied of anything yet. He loses and does his best to lose as little face as possible. INFORMATION Run a campaign to deny town mayor. I'm certain mafia would have given it a shot. Try to make it legitimate looking and not pour to many resources into it. CLUES Poems mostly linking to Frost's forests and nature, and Hughes dreams. Possibly drying blood. I believe RoL is mafia. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4198 Posts
On January 27 2011 12:51 Kavdragon wrote: [sarcasm]Ya, voting for the one who was losing is really a terrible practice..... Especially since the mafia can add a few concentrated votes on a specific candidate they'd like to see in that position..... They must have been voting for RoL with me.....[/sarcasm]Dear Impervious: WTF?: Unexplained vote on RoL This was followed by him lurking(self described, not just my opinion) till he made these posts: Maybe, but If I'm town I'd be doing the exact same thing: looking for a scummy person and leading the town through example by analyzing him. Wrong. A mafia mayor would try to mislead the town down an unfruitful path, not encourage them to do actual analysis. Most mafia stay away from analysis because it's hard to write an argument against someone you know is innocent. Kind-of-sort-of but not really. The town does not split the votes 50/50 between candidates. One will look like a better choice to most, and the majority of the town will vote for that one. While yes, a single player would get more votes as mafia given the exact same campain and posts, it's NOT true that on average mafia mayors get more votes than town mayors. WTF? You say that a mafia mayor would get more votes because mafia would vote for him. Then based off that, you say that we should lynch people who voted for me? You are calling me scum?( If I'm not scum, why would scum vote for me? If scum didn't vote for me, why lynch people who voted for me?) Lemme get this straight: You think that I'm mafia because i won. LOL. By your logic we should always lynch the mayor! Just because the mafia can stack a few votes on their candidate doesn't mean that they will win every time. Wait, so you're advocating that we RNG the lynch? We have 30 pages of information, and I don't see you using any of it. Lol, "worried". If you're so worried, why don't you analyze me! Put some money where your mouth is, and start actually contributing. (And don't say there's not enough information to analyze me, I've posted twice as much as almost anyone. There's TONS of material to pick from) Wrong. Why do you think that town would split 50/50? No, I don't think they're guaranteed to split 50/50. But, like I said, both were strong candidates, and a 60/40 split, roughly what happened, is an expected, albeit fringe, result, when you're dealing with 30 or so votes. Look, Analysis trumps statistics every time. If this game could be won with stats, it would be played with a calculator in math club. It's not. It's an analysis game. Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. Oh good lord, this makes me sad. no, no, and no. Who did this backfire against? Bum? He was certainly not the most vocal person. Is this an attempt to scare people into being quiet? Here, let me speak your language: Statistically speaking, more than half the players are town. This means that statistically speaking, if we lynch someone, they are town. You're not even getting the statistics right either. Show me why the town is likely to split 50/50. Statistically speaking, if we don't lynch someone on the first turn, it becomes more likely to lynch them on the next turn since they've killed some more of the town by then..... We've gotta try to get them asap..... Please, we have been extremely fortunet to have so much information to go on for the first day. The mafia will try to discourage us from doing analysis, saying "there's not enough information to go by" or "It's day one, nothing's happened". This is exactly the kind of complacency that gets the town killed. So far I'm the only person doing analysis. This too, is a sure road to failure. As RoL said, leaving the work of the town to one person will end in a loss for the town. I won't be right about every lynch, the town needs to work too. Clues are a good start, but we cannot win based off of clues. tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 27 2011 13:12 Kavdragon wrote: Anyone going to counterclaim? Not that there can't be two role blockers, but it does make things more interesting. (Actually, Has anyone seen a setup with 2 role blockers?) Doesn't really clear him either way. A day one team roleblock to give credibility to their failed mayoral candidate is not out of the question. If you think about it, if RoL was town, giving one of the two mayoral candidates a sense of credibility would be one of the last things the mafia would want to do. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 27 2011 13:12 Kavdragon wrote: Anyone going to counterclaim? Not that there can't be two role blockers, but it does make things more interesting. (Actually, Has anyone seen a setup with 2 role blockers?) We know a RB is in the game, and I doubt there would be 2. I'm sure RB can refrain from using there ability. If RoL is mafia, I don't see how this would help him, as you should give RB a shot, and this doesn't confirm much about him. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
-Your good friend kita | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On January 27 2011 13:18 kitaman27 wrote: Doesn't really clear him either way. A day one team roleblock to give credibility to their failed mayoral candidate is not out of the question. If you think about it, if RoL was town, giving one of the two mayoral candidates a sense of credibility would be one of the last things the mafia would want to do. On January 27 2011 13:20 bumatlarge wrote: We know a RB is in the game, and I doubt there would be 2. I'm sure RB can refrain from using there ability. If RoL is mafia, I don't see how this would help him, as you should give RB a shot, and this doesn't confirm much about him. Agreed. It doesn't clear him. I was just wondering if anybody would, for the sake of getting more information. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 27 2011 13:26 kitaman27 wrote: @bum, I question the timing of your analysis. With exception of the clues, all that information was available pre-election. Yet until now, you have insisted kavdragon was the more scummy of the two. Why wait until now to jump on your target? -Your good friend kita I wanted to post it in conjunction with any clues I could connect to RoL, which people started to find before I even started the analysis. I did not make the connection before tonight, but putting that analysis together really gave me a solid lead on an already stated notion of mine. I even put my vote on RoL, so I wasn't planning this. I want to see RoL's response before I put my vote anywhere, and we have 48 hours, so I will give another tomorrow on Kav, and I forsee good things in his future. You should try this analysis stuff, it's pretty enlightening. -Kita's good friend, Bum | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Also, right now I think the most obvious clue was pointed out already by LD: On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote: Some nights I thirst for real blood For real knives For real cries And then the flash of steel from real guns In real life Really fills my mind You can’t hide Nemesis Archer's Reality Marble: Reality Marble "I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." That's a pretty damning point directly to Nemesis. I do agree that we shouldn't lynch based purely off of clues though. Right now, who I'm thinking of voting for is either Nem or bum. I have voted for Nemesis for the time being, but that is definitely open to change depending on the situation. | ||
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Beneather
Canada451 Posts
I'll be voting for RoL... We NEED YOU to claim if you were VISITED LAST NIGHT!!!! | ||
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Nemesis
Canada2568 Posts
On January 27 2011 14:16 BrownBear wrote: If anyone took a hit, now would be your time to claim. Also, right now I think the most obvious clue was pointed out already by LD: That's a pretty damning point directly to Nemesis. I do agree that we shouldn't lynch based purely off of clues though. Right now, who I'm thinking of voting for is either Nem or bum. I have voted for Nemesis for the time being, but that is definitely open to change depending on the situation. sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap? Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths. That means that the clues in the first night points to two different people. Now if you look at the statements that he took from the clues, those are spread out all over the place in the day post. They can be found in both deaths. So unless you are saying that both clues point to me, then that part of your clue analysis is crap. Second of all, this one is just a bit of speculation on how clues work, but the italicized parts and the bold parts feel a bit like red herring. If you look at Night 0's clue, none of the actual clues are found within the italicized parts. Third of all, that kind of feels forced. Well I don't necessarily blame you since you probably don't really understand what my quote is from, and what a reality marble is. A reality marble is magic that forces the reality in your mind to come to life in the real world. So using real as a clue to point to me is rather farfetched. And I just had to facepalm when you bolded really. That just kind of seems too forced. To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. For example, someone has a picture of a character from a movie. Then there was something in the clue that could be related to that movie but to a different character in the movie. Mods won't go that far to make the clues as vague as possible. Remember that the clue is directly related to the Profile, not second-hand relation. I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... From Gmarshal's profile ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/62033.jpg?1295165578) As for the second kill, all I could find so far was this: I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. From Kitaman's Profile: "Keeper Yes, my lord; But yet I cannot help you." "Surveyor 'If,' quoth he, 'I for this had been committed, As, to the Tower, I thought, I would have play'd The part my father meant to act upon The usurper Richard; who, being at Salisbury, Made suit to come in's presence; which if granted, As he made semblance of his duty, would Have put his knife to him.'" Now obviously I haven't read all of kitaman's profile so I'm not really sure if I'm taking those out of context. I'll read it when I have the time, but if someone who knows the story there can help me if anything could be related to the clues, I would appreciate it. And of course lynching based on clues alone would be stupid unless the clues are pretty damning, so I will hold out on my vote for now. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
makes it 100x harder for town. i dont see how this could be balanced fairly. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
Your counter clue analysis is weak Nemesis. I honestly think that clue was way too easy to find but only fits you.. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
On January 27 2011 15:21 Coagulation wrote: i dont like not knowing what roles people are when they die makes it 100x harder for town. i dont see how this could be balanced fairly. yea i think it would be so much fun if it was like 3mafia and 27 townie lol | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
Anyway, I think I figured out a clue. I noticed a recurring trend in the two day posts we have and its a reference to an animal-like mafia. The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? I see three possibilities for this clue. Pandain (Now Deconduo) who I think is the strongest. http://i.imgur.com/q14Fx.png Profile talks about his dogs. The other person it might reference is brownbear, barring just his name his profile references cats. I think pandain/deconduo is stronger for the clue, but I would do a behavioral analysis before I would jump to anything crazy and kill one. _____________- The next thing I find interesting is TheAldo. I think TheAldo MIGHT have been mafia killed by the SK. If you look at both Day posts they both have one person whose kills are talked of in first person. The killer is marked by cowardice and fear of blood. That person is the serial killer. I will do more of an analysis on that later, but this is to focus on TheAldo. If you look at the scenario of the Day post its presailing party in Florida. TheAldo's profile directly talks about how he is a Floridian. ____________ The next thing is I think one of our killers apparently has a hole in his head It was outside, our ship’s nurse Korynne was on the ground, hand clutching her slit throat, black blood gurgling onto the ground. Behind her, a man dressed completely in black, knife clutched in his hand, a hole in his head. A hole in his head? The only person I really saw this relating to was very loosely to Amber. If they were trying to be vague Amber has a gif of The Situation in his profile. That guys retarded. Which is what a hole in his head could be implying. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. I think this line might actually refer to Aldo watching Meapak getting killed. Which would mean TheAldo is a detective. I initially read it as belonging to the SK, but then the SK follows him and kills him which is all in first person. I don't think the clues would lapse in and out of first person for the SK. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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