TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 42

On January 27 2011 13:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I was roleblocked last night.

On January 25 2011 18:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Yeah that's true. I think we haven't really discussed how important census is either. Obviously the first night we should check to see how many mafia there are so we can periodically check our progress. I suggest every other night we check mafia and figure something else out that is useful to do.

My current thoughts are N1 check all mafia count. N2 we check serial killer count. That should give us an idea of the KP count. It might even give us insight into clues if we understand how many of the night kills are ALWAYS going to be attributed to the SK's. From previous games if the mafia KP formula is X/2 = KP where X is total mafia members then each night KP/clues will alternate between the players while SK's own their KP solely and we don't have to worry about overlapping.

I think the best way to attempt to use census is constantly alternating between checking SK's and checking mafia total count that way we kind of have an idea of how many mafia/SK are left and can judge our progress and get an idea of a mafia pushed a bad lynch thinking we couldn't tell the difference. The reasoning being that I expect mafia to attempt to be more aggressive in this set up since there is no flips so they don't face true repercussions for their actions. The only issue with this plan is it relies on the mayor being honest and town aligned. Its another reason we need a town aligned mayor, census will give us a HUGE advantage that I woudln't want to throw away. Personally I think Kav is probably a townie so I am not too worried about either one of us getting it. Although I do find it strange that the mafia aren't vying for such a powerful role which is what makes me a bit suspicious of Kav, but my read on him is he wouldn't be comfortable enough to do this his first game as mafia and I will stick to that I suppose.

Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to try to do some actual clue and behavioral analysis as well as look over the OG guy. Since Day ends tomorrow one of us has to decide on a lynch target for sure.

On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more".

Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting.

I will switch my vote back too kav.

On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason.

So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that

Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more.

On January 25 2011 13:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Kav, my entire platform is not to put all your eggs in one potentially scum basket. By revolving everything around the mayor you are dooming the town. Stop with the stupidity.

I am leaning towards Amber[LighT] for my Day 1 lynch.

On January 25 2011 13:08 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

I remember a while ago they used to ban that in games. I guessed we stopped though. Running before the game started is stupid and doesn't give you shit to analyze. They can use it as a point of trust when they could of lucked their way into a strong mafia position.

On January 25 2011 13:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

To answer this. I generally don't like voting for myself in an election, I feel like its bad taste. But if people are going to think I am conceding the position when I just pushing for it then I will change my vote.

On January 25 2011 04:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
To answer what you said amber, the reason I responded about my playstyle was to save drh the time of reading about what I do as mafia. I don't think I spent too much time discrediting him, all I really said was he could be a really dangerous mayor, especially if hes mafia.

And I didn't see the day 1 lynch thing in the OP.

On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you.

As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created.

I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom.

Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why.

In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches.

Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die.

Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck.

DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk.

Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor.

Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it.

Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia.

On January 24 2011 16:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Oh and as for my general apathy, I am just tired as hell lately. When does the day end anyway?

On January 24 2011 16:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

God, I am so dumb. I can't believe I didn't put those together lol

On January 24 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

My platform would be self explanatory. I am a decent scumhunter, a high n1 hit target. That's about it. either you want me as a leader or you don't. Either way I am fine with it. I don't consider it mattering that much which is why I didn't go all out with mspaint and shit.

On January 26 2011 13:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Oh well, so I lost the election. Kav what are you going to do with Census?

On January 27 2011 11:17 kitaman27 wrote:




First thing that comes to mind points to RoL. Murder scene could be the road less traveled.

On January 27 2011 11:28 darmousseh wrote:
I quickly glanced through all of the of the profiles and the only hint i could find was in RoL's profile


which would correspond to the story

Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.

It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.

I should explain.

On January 27 2011 12:51 Kavdragon wrote:



Unexplained vote on RoL

This was followed by him lurking(self described, not just my opinion) till he made these posts:

Maybe, but If I'm town I'd be doing the exact same thing: looking for a scummy person and leading the town through example by analyzing him.

Wrong. A mafia mayor would try to mislead the town down an unfruitful path, not encourage them to do actual analysis. Most mafia stay away from analysis because it's hard to write an argument against someone you know is innocent.

Kind-of-sort-of but not really. The town does not split the votes 50/50 between candidates. One will look like a better choice to most, and the majority of the town will vote for that one. While yes, a single player would get more votes as mafia given the exact same campain and posts, it's NOT true that on average mafia mayors get more votes than town mayors.

WTF? You say that a mafia mayor would get more votes because mafia would vote for him. Then based off that, you say that we should lynch people who voted for me? You are calling me scum?( If I'm not scum, why would scum vote for me? If scum didn't vote for me, why lynch people who voted for me?)
Lemme get this straight: You think that I'm mafia because i won. LOL. By your logic we should always lynch the mayor! Just because the mafia can stack a few votes on their candidate doesn't mean that they will win every time.

Wait, so you're advocating that we RNG the lynch? We have 30 pages of information, and I don't see you using any of it.

Lol, "worried". If you're so worried, why don't you analyze me! Put some money where your mouth is, and start actually contributing. (And don't say there's not enough information to analyze me, I've posted twice as much as almost anyone. There's TONS of material to pick from)

Wrong. Why do you think that town would split 50/50?

Look, Analysis trumps statistics every time. If this game could be won with stats, it would be played with a calculator in math club. It's not. It's an analysis game.

Oh good lord, this makes me sad. no, no, and no. Who did this backfire against? Bum? He was certainly not the most vocal person. Is this an attempt to scare people into being quiet? Here, let me speak your language: Statistically speaking, more than half the players are town. This means that statistically speaking, if we lynch someone, they are town. You're not even getting the statistics right either. Show me why the town is likely to split 50/50.

Please, we have been extremely fortunet to have so much information to go on for the first day. The mafia will try to discourage us from doing analysis, saying "there's not enough information to go by" or "It's day one, nothing's happened". This is exactly the kind of complacency that gets the town killed.
So far I'm the only person doing analysis. This too, is a sure road to failure. As RoL said, leaving the work of the town to one person will end in a loss for the town. I won't be right about every lynch, the town needs to work too. Clues are a good start, but we cannot win based off of clues.

On January 27 2011 13:12 Kavdragon wrote:


Anyone going to counterclaim? Not that there can't be two role blockers, but it does make things more interesting. (Actually, Has anyone seen a setup with 2 role blockers?)

On January 27 2011 13:18 kitaman27 wrote:


Doesn't really clear him either way. A day one team roleblock to give credibility to their failed mayoral candidate is not out of the question. If you think about it, if RoL was town, giving one of the two mayoral candidates a sense of credibility would be one of the last things the mafia would want to do.

On January 27 2011 13:20 bumatlarge wrote:


We know a RB is in the game, and I doubt there would be 2. I'm sure RB can refrain from using there ability. If RoL is mafia, I don't see how this would help him, as you should give RB a shot, and this doesn't confirm much about him.

On January 27 2011 13:26 kitaman27 wrote:
@bum, I question the timing of your analysis. With exception of the clues, all that information was available pre-election. Yet until now, you have insisted kavdragon was the more scummy of the two. Why wait until now to jump on your target?

-Your good friend kita

On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote:
Some nights I thirst for real blood

For real knives

For real cries

And then the flash of steel from real guns

In real life

Really fills my mind

You can’t hide

Nemesis

Archer's Reality Marble: Reality Marble
"I am the bone of my sword.
Steel is my body, and fire is my blood.
I have created over a thousand blades.
Unknown to death.
Nor known to life.
Have withstood pain to create many weapons.
Yet, these hands will never hold anything.
So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'."

On January 27 2011 14:16 BrownBear wrote:
If anyone took a hit, now would be your time to claim.

Also, right now I think the most obvious clue was pointed out already by LD:




That's a pretty damning point directly to Nemesis. I do agree that we shouldn't lynch based purely off of clues though. Right now, who I'm thinking of voting for is either Nem or bum. I have voted for Nemesis for the time being, but that is definitely open to change depending on the situation.

And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away...

I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him.

On January 27 2011 15:21 Coagulation wrote:
i dont like not knowing what roles people are when they die
makes it 100x harder for town. i dont see how this could be balanced fairly.

The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make

As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat?

It was outside, our ship’s nurse Korynne was on the ground, hand clutching her slit throat, black blood gurgling onto the ground. Behind her, a man dressed completely in black, knife clutched in his hand, a hole in his head.

And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on.