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TL Mafia XX - Page 13

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flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-03-10 23:41:28
March 10 2010 23:38 GMT
#241
On March 11 2010 05:22 Qatol wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 03:31 Incognito wrote:
I vote for (insert whoever is winning here...)

3. You cannot autochange your vote to the losing or winning bandwagon.

Go flamewheel! Easy lightning excuse!


FZZAM!

Also, we won fairly easily. First post coming up in a few minutes since I have time.
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-03-10 23:51:53
March 10 2010 23:47 GMT
#242
[image loading]

Day 1:

Liquiville had known peace for a long, long time. The town, prosperous and thriving, had just entered into its 42nd year of establishment. With the celebration of this important anniversary, the town decided to open its gates to attract more settlers. And so the settlers came, and they came in droves, ready to set up residency in Liquiville and to begin their new, peaceful lives.

However, not all the townspeople came in peace. The mafia, seeing that Liquiville was so passive and defenseless, had decided to make the flourishing town their next target for conquest. Two months after the new wave of immigrants to Liquiville had settled down, they convened one night to execute their plan to take over Liquiville, and they had decided to start from the top.

Pardoner Comrade Caller was walking home after a long day at the office when it started to rain. A storm whipped up, and Caller was shivering and soaked to the bone. Seeing a taxi, he hailed it over and started to get in. However, upon looking at the driver, he saw something that made him quake even more than the freezing rain and wind had. Dropping his briefcase and coffee mug, he quickly backed away from the taxi and began to run. However, the taxi stayed on him, the bright headlights highlighting Caller’s every movement. Attempting to ditch the phantom cab, Caller turned into an alley, but after running for a few seconds, he realized it was a dead end. Turning back around, he saw his pursuer. The cab had parked outside of the alley, and the driver had gotten out, and he had a gun. Caller started to back away slowly, before he remembered who he was. Yelling in Russian, he charged headlong at his assailant, knowing that his strong-as-steel arms would be able to deflect the puny attacker’s bullets. However, the first bullet went clean through Caller’s fist, and the second went right into his heart. Little did Caller know that his killer had purchased anti-Caller bullets just for this task. As Caller lay in the alley, bleeding out, he thought back to his proud homeland of Russia. With a final sigh, and a soft call of “Nyet,” Caller died. The killer, his job completed, wiped clean his gun, walked back to his cab, and drove away into the night.

Qatol, unlike Caller, had decided to stay at the office even though he did not get paid for overtime. Pouring through contract after contract, form after form, Qatol feverishly tried to prepare all the citizenship documents. However, as the hours started to blur and Qatol’s coffee cup ran dry, Qatol decided to call it a night. Also unlike Caller, Qatol lived far away from the office, so he commuted every day. However, just as soon as Qatol had gotten into the car and cranked the engine, a bomb attached underneath the exhaust pipe exploded, spraying Qatol’s blue blood everywhere. And in an instant, it was over. What had been a perfectly operation Hellion a second ago was now just a charred frame, sizzling quietly in the rain.

Though they had agreed to content themselves to two kills per night, the Mafia had to seal the deal on this first venture of theirs. Having already taken out the Pardoner and Legal Advisor of the town, they now set their eyes upon the most prominent target in all of Liquiville: the mayor himself, flamewheel91. Two Mafia members quietly broke into and stationed themselves inside flamewheel91’s house, waiting for him to return home from his weekly late-night indoors tennis match. As they saw the car roll up, they prepared their knives, and crept toward the door, ready to kill. However, as flamewheel91 got out of his car and started walking up the driveway, a sudden lightning bolt sizzled down through the sky, instantly vaporizing flamewheel91. After the initial shock had passed, the two mafia members looked at each other and shrugged, then stealthily left the house to go rejoin their co-conspirators.

And so the game begins.

flamewheel91 the Mayor is dead.
Caller the proud Soviet Pardoner is dead, da?
Qatol the Legal Advisor is now dead.

***

Remember, there are no clues.

The game is afoot. Day 1 voting for Mayor/Pardoner starts now, and will end Friday, March 12th at 9:00 p.m. EST. Please vote in the thread located here.
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
March 10 2010 23:48 GMT
#243
k, I vote for me. lets go choo choo.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
March 11 2010 00:00 GMT
#244
Mayor elections. I am announcing my candidacy for office.

Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF.

BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections?

Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself.

Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG.

Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die.

About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
March 11 2010 00:23 GMT
#245
For balancing purposes I guess some "strong" player(s?) will be Mafia too. If elected likely will choose to be GF and green- so theycan't be asked to perform role specific roles. So we need to be a bit careful. Then again lynchings can't be stopped by bodyguards, so office is less powerful for mafia early on to have an elected official. Late game the extra votes coul matter.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
Versatile
Profile Joined November 2008
United States396 Posts
March 11 2010 00:23 GMT
#246
On March 11 2010 08:25 Fulgrim wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 11 2010 05:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As for mayoral elections.

I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for office.

With the setup of this game, and the fact elected positions can be RC'd, the elected positions are far more likely to end up in townie hands. This is a good thing, and I believe it is in our best interests to make sure town can get in.

I believe that I would be a good candidate because I have many games worth of experience, a few as an elected official, and others where I have have helped in the pinning of reds. I believe that from this experience I will be able to help the town quickly and hopefully bring about a swift end to the mafia.

The Plan:
The plan is simple. Whoever is elected (in this case I would love it to be me), but regardless, whoever is elected. The dt or dt's will both check the elected officials. I would say if your a dt and numbered 1-12 on the list, check the mayor, 13-25 check the pardoner. Instantly we have information. If they are a blue role you write it down. If they are red, speak up to someone (possibly wait a day to find a green person in a check). Reveal the findings, person dies.
If they are green, keep them on a seperate list.

Soon as you get two greens, RC them, and tell them who you checked and start a circle.
If you get blues. Keep that info to yourself until you need it proved. If you find a dt, make them check someone (most likely one you've checked to confirm), medic prot someone, vig hit someone, etc...

Anyone who flips red dies.

For all those who are not a dt. Constantly update your posts in the archive thread, and carefully analyze peoples posting behaviours. If you think something is a tell, or feel they are scummy, rather than just point a finger, really sit down and prove it. But be aware that if you cause the death of an important player and they flip town, you will prob quickly follow.

Medics, protect the bgs with your life. We will randomly pick one from the list of two, and then tell you to prot them.

Past protecting the bgs, no one talk to them in PM's, IM's, or IRC, period. They are not confirmable, do not associate with them. They can talk via thread, feel free to respond to them here, do not tell them anything.

Conclusion:
This game can be won very easily if we play it smart. I believe outside of my general plan to play, the reason I should be elected is I believe I will represent a threat to the mafia, which means they will have to actively try to remove me, which will give themselves away. If they don't I will continue to strengthen the town, and effectively force them to GG.


Looking over the rules for the game, it looks like pardoner isn't going to play that much of an important role this game, its more of the mayor that we have to worry about. The mafia want to have the mayor role, and the only way they are going to get it safely is through their godfather. I think its probably safe to say that no "ordinary" mafia are going to be running for office.

I propose that we check the mayor on night one, (1-12), and then the other DT(s) 13-25 check town members, because Its important to check the mayor just to be safe, but I think checking the sheriff on the first night (potential gf risk), alot more information and more possiblities to set up town circles. Especially since its not critical if we lose the sheriff role to a godfather, because even if we do there would be no way to tell by simple DT chekcs.


quote for future reference. carry on.
"Over night The Conspiracy moves to eliminate a major threat to their plans. Many important officials are kidnapped and tortured, civilians are bombed and they use the spare ice to make delicious snow capped ice cream cones. Alas, someone has to die!"
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
March 11 2010 00:29 GMT
#247
In general, dts are I think hugely imprtant here, given unlimited checks. Keep them alive and we can't lose, ja? They should not try to be heroes night one or do anything hasty. Stay alive and check people. Discretely. A dead dt is worse than a mafia mayor at this stage.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
March 11 2010 00:31 GMT
#248
And L, you still cannot vote for yourself. Not even once, let alone twice. Sorry mate.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
CynanMachae
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Canada1459 Posts
March 11 2010 00:34 GMT
#249
I'm glad Incognito just pointed that out, I was catching up with the topic and people seemed to be assuming that the fact that elected officials that can be rolechecked was bad for mafia/good for town. This fact is just wrong. The mafia choose their GF in night 1, and I don't see any reason why they wouldnt put their elected member as GF. Only if they get both, they can't protect both, but meh, that's not good for town either.

Also, I didn't really understand that part with the first/last for protecting BGs, maybe I'm just not reading it right or something, but I don't understand what you mean

Also, on a side note, pushing further Incognito's analysis about the chances of having a mafia elected, assuming a proportionate number of people run for office (20% mafia-80% town), with 5 people running (1 mafia 4 town) we have around 40% chance of electing a mafia as either mayor or pardoner (moving a bit toward 36.66% the more people that run, and having a much higher chance with less people running for office)
Jang Yoon Chul hwaiting!
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
March 11 2010 00:44 GMT
#250
On March 11 2010 09:00 Incognito wrote:
Mayor elections. I am announcing my candidacy for office.

Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF.

BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections?

Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself.

Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG.

Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die.

About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles.

So you're saying don't DT check the person with 3 votes who can't be killed because he could be the GF.

Why does that seem retarded to me?

Oh let me tell you why.

Day 1 passes 2 people are voted in. If mafia attempt to run, they have the ability to put a single player in. The threat of DT checking prevents them from running more than one competitive option. Given that the good players in this game are limited, they're likely split up. I know that I'm not red, so that probably leaves either you or BC as the mafia candidate. One of you will probably be GF.

Over the past many games I've realized that the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town is probably the GF himself. Last game, for instance, Ace made repeated reference to the fact that he wanted to 'prove himself' through shooting. It was a pretty obvious self reference. When I asked called to be put back in, without even seeing the game I told him I was killing Ace, but the game was fucked and over by that point.

In past games where I've been GF i've similarly relied on it as a method of painting other people as uncredible. I generally ended up being able to do wacky shit like get fucking medic or DT mayors killed off because i'd point to a mistake in someone's reasoning then go "LOL I FOUND YOU OUT GF HOLY SHIT" and then get them bussed.

So given that, The mayor/pardoner NEED to be checked on the basis that it proves that at minimum ONE is legit. If ONE at the least is legit, then you can start some town building. Especially under certain circumstances.

So yeah, DTs please check Mayor/Pardoner, and please make me one or the other (i'd highly prefer mayor so that I can kill bill murray).

There's also another way to use bus drivers; you can use the town aligned bus driver after claims to assure that you have accurate DT checks. In doing so, you skirt pretty much the entire possibility of mafia redirecting your checks AND protect important players. Given that mafia aren't likely to hit their own members (unless knowingly bussed), the target/fake dichotomy is key.

Anyways, vote for me.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
March 11 2010 00:45 GMT
#251
On March 11 2010 09:23 citi.zen wrote:
For balancing purposes I guess some "strong" player(s?) will be Mafia too. If elected likely will choose to be GF and green- so theycan't be asked to perform role specific roles. So we need to be a bit careful. Then again lynchings can't be stopped by bodyguards, so office is less powerful for mafia early on to have an elected official. Late game the extra votes coul matter.


Yes, some strong players in all likelyhood will be mafia. But it is still good to have strong elected officials. Elected officials are under a lot of scrutiny. They also usually take on a very active role in town affairs. The more they're on the spotlight, the easier it is to catch them if they are mafia.

On March 11 2010 08:25 Fulgrim wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 11 2010 05:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As for mayoral elections.

I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for office.

With the setup of this game, and the fact elected positions can be RC'd, the elected positions are far more likely to end up in townie hands. This is a good thing, and I believe it is in our best interests to make sure town can get in.

I believe that I would be a good candidate because I have many games worth of experience, a few as an elected official, and others where I have have helped in the pinning of reds. I believe that from this experience I will be able to help the town quickly and hopefully bring about a swift end to the mafia.

The Plan:
The plan is simple. Whoever is elected (in this case I would love it to be me), but regardless, whoever is elected. The dt or dt's will both check the elected officials. I would say if your a dt and numbered 1-12 on the list, check the mayor, 13-25 check the pardoner. Instantly we have information. If they are a blue role you write it down. If they are red, speak up to someone (possibly wait a day to find a green person in a check). Reveal the findings, person dies.
If they are green, keep them on a seperate list.

Soon as you get two greens, RC them, and tell them who you checked and start a circle.
If you get blues. Keep that info to yourself until you need it proved. If you find a dt, make them check someone (most likely one you've checked to confirm), medic prot someone, vig hit someone, etc...

Anyone who flips red dies.

For all those who are not a dt. Constantly update your posts in the archive thread, and carefully analyze peoples posting behaviours. If you think something is a tell, or feel they are scummy, rather than just point a finger, really sit down and prove it. But be aware that if you cause the death of an important player and they flip town, you will prob quickly follow.

Medics, protect the bgs with your life. We will randomly pick one from the list of two, and then tell you to prot them.

Past protecting the bgs, no one talk to them in PM's, IM's, or IRC, period. They are not confirmable, do not associate with them. They can talk via thread, feel free to respond to them here, do not tell them anything.

Conclusion:
This game can be won very easily if we play it smart. I believe outside of my general plan to play, the reason I should be elected is I believe I will represent a threat to the mafia, which means they will have to actively try to remove me, which will give themselves away. If they don't I will continue to strengthen the town, and effectively force them to GG.


Looking over the rules for the game, it looks like pardoner isn't going to play that much of an important role this game, its more of the mayor that we have to worry about. The mafia want to have the mayor role, and the only way they are going to get it safely is through their godfather. I think its probably safe to say that no "ordinary" mafia are going to be running for office.


I'm surprised you say this. Pardoner is generally considered the more powerful office for mafia. Three votes is big, but a pardon can be more devastating if used near the end of the game on a double lynch day when both top candidates are mafia. The mayor can be held accountable for his 3 votes, and they can be tracked throughout the game. The pardoner however, will most likely use his abilities at one critical moment, which will come as a surprise to the town. We can't let that happen.

On March 11 2010 07:39 Foolishness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 07:17 Fulgrim wrote:
It isn't safe for normal mafia to run for office, so they won't do that, the main danger here is GF. (Being unfamiliar with the busdriver rules, a mafia aligned one could switch the DT check off the elected official maybe?) Regardless we want to avoid getting a GF into office. Right now we have JeeJee, L, and BC running for office, chances are one of them is going to be GF. I'm going to withhold my vote until I see some more from the candidates or if there are anymore people that announce their campaign.


I highly doubt that the mafia is already organized to the point where they got a guy running for office right now. It usually takes them a bit to decide what their plan is and who's going to run. I'd watch and see who comes to run later in the day.


Why do you say this? Role pms were sent out a while ago, long before the game started. 8~ hours is enough for the mafia to get organized. Plus, a strong player candidate probably would have run regardless of his role. I don't think we can make any assumptions on mafia organization for running for office at this point.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
JeeJee
Profile Blog Joined July 2003
Canada5652 Posts
March 11 2010 01:01 GMT
#252
On March 11 2010 09:45 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 08:25 Fulgrim wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 11 2010 05:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As for mayoral elections.

I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for office.

With the setup of this game, and the fact elected positions can be RC'd, the elected positions are far more likely to end up in townie hands. This is a good thing, and I believe it is in our best interests to make sure town can get in.

I believe that I would be a good candidate because I have many games worth of experience, a few as an elected official, and others where I have have helped in the pinning of reds. I believe that from this experience I will be able to help the town quickly and hopefully bring about a swift end to the mafia.

The Plan:
The plan is simple. Whoever is elected (in this case I would love it to be me), but regardless, whoever is elected. The dt or dt's will both check the elected officials. I would say if your a dt and numbered 1-12 on the list, check the mayor, 13-25 check the pardoner. Instantly we have information. If they are a blue role you write it down. If they are red, speak up to someone (possibly wait a day to find a green person in a check). Reveal the findings, person dies.
If they are green, keep them on a seperate list.

Soon as you get two greens, RC them, and tell them who you checked and start a circle.
If you get blues. Keep that info to yourself until you need it proved. If you find a dt, make them check someone (most likely one you've checked to confirm), medic prot someone, vig hit someone, etc...

Anyone who flips red dies.

For all those who are not a dt. Constantly update your posts in the archive thread, and carefully analyze peoples posting behaviours. If you think something is a tell, or feel they are scummy, rather than just point a finger, really sit down and prove it. But be aware that if you cause the death of an important player and they flip town, you will prob quickly follow.

Medics, protect the bgs with your life. We will randomly pick one from the list of two, and then tell you to prot them.

Past protecting the bgs, no one talk to them in PM's, IM's, or IRC, period. They are not confirmable, do not associate with them. They can talk via thread, feel free to respond to them here, do not tell them anything.

Conclusion:
This game can be won very easily if we play it smart. I believe outside of my general plan to play, the reason I should be elected is I believe I will represent a threat to the mafia, which means they will have to actively try to remove me, which will give themselves away. If they don't I will continue to strengthen the town, and effectively force them to GG.


Looking over the rules for the game, it looks like pardoner isn't going to play that much of an important role this game, its more of the mayor that we have to worry about. The mafia want to have the mayor role, and the only way they are going to get it safely is through their godfather. I think its probably safe to say that no "ordinary" mafia are going to be running for office.


I'm surprised you say this. Pardoner is generally considered the more powerful office for mafia. Three votes is big, but a pardon can be more devastating if used near the end of the game on a double lynch day when both top candidates are mafia. The mayor can be held accountable for his 3 votes, and they can be tracked throughout the game. The pardoner however, will most likely use his abilities at one critical moment, which will come as a surprise to the town. We can't let that happen.


this always gets brought up but it never quite ends up working that way. you have to consider that this is a TL game, and the pardoner is viewed as the mayor runner-up. mayor's the big dog. he runs the show. especially in these games, a single mayor has a lot of power not through his votes or invincibility but through his ability to sway people's opinions since inherently he is in power if only because players think he is. by simply encouraging shitty bandwagons or stopping good ones and otherwise misdirecting the town, a mafia mayor can really fuck shit up, moreso than a pardoner with that "game-winning pardon" that never comes to pass
(\o/)  If you want it, you find a way. Otherwise you find excuses. No exceptions.
 /_\   aka Shinbi (requesting a name change since 27/05/09 ☺)
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
March 11 2010 01:03 GMT
#253
On March 11 2010 09:34 CynanMachae wrote:
Also, I didn't really understand that part with the first/last for protecting BGs, maybe I'm just not reading it right or something, but I don't understand what you mean

Also, on a side note, pushing further Incognito's analysis about the chances of having a mafia elected, assuming a proportionate number of people run for office (20% mafia-80% town), with 5 people running (1 mafia 4 town) we have around 40% chance of electing a mafia as either mayor or pardoner (moving a bit toward 36.66% the more people that run, and having a much higher chance with less people running for office)


After BGs are picked they are announced. So in the signup list, we find those two players and note that one of them is before the other. If "first" is picked, medics protect the first BG on the list, if not, they prot the second.

No, don't think too much about precise chances. I was just saying this to illustrate why its wrong to think that mafia will be discouraged from running for office.

On March 11 2010 09:44 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 09:00 Incognito wrote:
Mayor elections. I am announcing my candidacy for office.

Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF.

BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections?

Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself.

Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG.

Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die.

About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles.

So you're saying don't DT check the person with 3 votes who can't be killed because he could be the GF.

Why does that seem retarded to me?

Oh let me tell you why.

Day 1 passes 2 people are voted in. If mafia attempt to run, they have the ability to put a single player in. The threat of DT checking prevents them from running more than one competitive option. Given that the good players in this game are limited, they're likely split up. I know that I'm not red, so that probably leaves either you or BC as the mafia candidate. One of you will probably be GF.

Over the past many games I've realized that the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town is probably the GF himself. Last game, for instance, Ace made repeated reference to the fact that he wanted to 'prove himself' through shooting. It was a pretty obvious self reference. When I asked called to be put back in, without even seeing the game I told him I was killing Ace, but the game was fucked and over by that point.

In past games where I've been GF i've similarly relied on it as a method of painting other people as uncredible. I generally ended up being able to do wacky shit like get fucking medic or DT mayors killed off because i'd point to a mistake in someone's reasoning then go "LOL I FOUND YOU OUT GF HOLY SHIT" and then get them bussed.

So given that, The mayor/pardoner NEED to be checked on the basis that it proves that at minimum ONE is legit. If ONE at the least is legit, then you can start some town building. Especially under certain circumstances.

So yeah, DTs please check Mayor/Pardoner, and please make me one or the other (i'd highly prefer mayor so that I can kill bill murray).

There's also another way to use bus drivers; you can use the town aligned bus driver after claims to assure that you have accurate DT checks. In doing so, you skirt pretty much the entire possibility of mafia redirecting your checks AND protect important players. Given that mafia aren't likely to hit their own members (unless knowingly bussed), the target/fake dichotomy is key.

Anyways, vote for me.


L, your general concept is accurate, but the presence of a bus driver complicates things.

In the past few 30~ player games, we've had 6-7 mafia with 3 KP. This game we have 5 mafia for 25 players with 2 KP. Given that flamewheel does have some legal advice, I'm almost certain that the mafia will have a bus driver.

With a bus driver, the mafia has the threat of preventing the rolecheck of an elected official. Which casts doubt onto the candidate regardless of alignment. Fortunately, if A gets checked and is swapped with B, the DT will get back: "B is a (B's role)" instead of "A is (B's role)". (I was originally considering making it this T_T). So any diverted checks won't confuse the town.

Still, when we find out that one member is legit, we don't know which one. So we can't really build a town circle. However, you did say "especially under certain circumstances", so I'll wait till you describe those before I make a judgment there.

I don't get what you mean when you say this: "the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town". Could you please explain?

Can you elaborate more on this second way to use bus drivers? I'm assuming you mean that once the bus driver is confirmed, DTs use swapping to check a key player in order to bypass a potential swap from a mafia driver?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
March 11 2010 01:26 GMT
#254
On March 11 2010 09:44 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 09:00 Incognito wrote:
Mayor elections. I am announcing my candidacy for office.

Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF.

BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections?

Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself.

Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG.

Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die.

About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles.

So you're saying don't DT check the person with 3 votes who can't be killed because he could be the GF.

Why does that seem retarded to me?

Oh let me tell you why.

Day 1 passes 2 people are voted in. If mafia attempt to run, they have the ability to put a single player in. The threat of DT checking prevents them from running more than one competitive option. Given that the good players in this game are limited, they're likely split up. I know that I'm not red, so that probably leaves either you or BC as the mafia candidate. One of you will probably be GF.

Over the past many games I've realized that the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town is probably the GF himself. Last game, for instance, Ace made repeated reference to the fact that he wanted to 'prove himself' through shooting. It was a pretty obvious self reference. When I asked called to be put back in, without even seeing the game I told him I was killing Ace, but the game was fucked and over by that point.

In past games where I've been GF i've similarly relied on it as a method of painting other people as uncredible. I generally ended up being able to do wacky shit like get fucking medic or DT mayors killed off because i'd point to a mistake in someone's reasoning then go "LOL I FOUND YOU OUT GF HOLY SHIT" and then get them bussed.

So given that, The mayor/pardoner NEED to be checked on the basis that it proves that at minimum ONE is legit. If ONE at the least is legit, then you can start some town building. Especially under certain circumstances.

So yeah, DTs please check Mayor/Pardoner, and please make me one or the other (i'd highly prefer mayor so that I can kill bill murray).

There's also another way to use bus drivers; you can use the town aligned bus driver after claims to assure that you have accurate DT checks. In doing so, you skirt pretty much the entire possibility of mafia redirecting your checks AND protect important players. Given that mafia aren't likely to hit their own members (unless knowingly bussed), the target/fake dichotomy is key.

Anyways, vote for me.


If a member of the mafia wins mayor/pardonner, isn't it GUARANTEED that he'll be the Godfather? What would be the point of mafia letting one of their own be in office (without giving him Godfather status) only to get role-checked by DT's, lynched by the town, and the crucial 3 extra votes being thrown away? So no matter what, if you role-check the mayor/pardonner, won't he come up as town-aligned? I don't really understand your logic in saying it's worth it to role-check him anyways because "it proves that at minimum ONE is legit." The only way role-checking mayor/pardonner would be worthwhile is if BOTH mayor AND pardonner are mafia, in which case, they can't "protect" both of them from role-checks... But what are the chances of that??
CynanMachae
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Canada1459 Posts
March 11 2010 01:26 GMT
#255
On March 11 2010 10:03 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 09:34 CynanMachae wrote:
Also, I didn't really understand that part with the first/last for protecting BGs, maybe I'm just not reading it right or something, but I don't understand what you mean

Also, on a side note, pushing further Incognito's analysis about the chances of having a mafia elected, assuming a proportionate number of people run for office (20% mafia-80% town), with 5 people running (1 mafia 4 town) we have around 40% chance of electing a mafia as either mayor or pardoner (moving a bit toward 36.66% the more people that run, and having a much higher chance with less people running for office)


After BGs are picked they are announced. So in the signup list, we find those two players and note that one of them is before the other. If "first" is picked, medics protect the first BG on the list, if not, they prot the second.

No, don't think too much about precise chances. I was just saying this to illustrate why its wrong to think that mafia will be discouraged from running for office.

Yea I did get that, I just didn't understand why the need to randomly pick one of them. But I went back and read the role and seems I hadn't noticed they were picked among town/mafia. IT does make sense now.
Jang Yoon Chul hwaiting!
Versatile
Profile Joined November 2008
United States396 Posts
March 11 2010 01:26 GMT
#256
On March 11 2010 09:44 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 09:00 Incognito wrote:
Mayor elections. I am announcing my candidacy for office.

Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF.

BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections?

Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself.

Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG.

Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die.

About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles.

Over the past many games I've realized that the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town is probably the GF himself. Last game, for instance, Ace made repeated reference to the fact that he wanted to 'prove himself' through shooting. It was a pretty obvious self reference. When I asked called to be put back in, without even seeing the game I told him I was killing Ace, but the game was fucked and over by that point.


ermm, ace was innocent last game so that example actually goes against your argument.
"Over night The Conspiracy moves to eliminate a major threat to their plans. Many important officials are kidnapped and tortured, civilians are bombed and they use the spare ice to make delicious snow capped ice cream cones. Alas, someone has to die!"
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
March 11 2010 01:30 GMT
#257
On March 11 2010 10:26 Versatile wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 09:44 L wrote:
On March 11 2010 09:00 Incognito wrote:
Mayor elections. I am announcing my candidacy for office.

Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF.

BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections?

Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself.

Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG.

Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die.

About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles.

Over the past many games I've realized that the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town is probably the GF himself. Last game, for instance, Ace made repeated reference to the fact that he wanted to 'prove himself' through shooting. It was a pretty obvious self reference. When I asked called to be put back in, without even seeing the game I told him I was killing Ace, but the game was fucked and over by that point.


ermm, ace was innocent last game so that example actually goes against your argument.


Ah so you must understand? What does "pushing the GF" mean?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Versatile
Profile Joined November 2008
United States396 Posts
March 11 2010 01:30 GMT
#258
all this talk about checking the mayor and pardoner is useless.

DTs: you need to decide who you think is most scummy when the election is over; mayor or pardoner. then you need to look @ the vote lists, and decide who you believe to be most scummiest there. the mafia will most likely run their GF, and at least 1 or 2 of them will vote for the GF and they'll show up as red.
"Over night The Conspiracy moves to eliminate a major threat to their plans. Many important officials are kidnapped and tortured, civilians are bombed and they use the spare ice to make delicious snow capped ice cream cones. Alas, someone has to die!"
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
March 11 2010 01:32 GMT
#259
On March 11 2010 10:30 Versatile wrote:
all this talk about checking the mayor and pardoner is useless.

DTs: you need to decide who you think is most scummy when the election is over; mayor or pardoner. then you need to look @ the vote lists, and decide who you believe to be most scummiest there. the mafia will most likely run their GF, and at least 1 or 2 of them will vote for the GF and they'll show up as red.


all of this talk about checking is useless. Maybe we should save it until after the election is over so we don't tell the mafia what to do.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Versatile
Profile Joined November 2008
United States396 Posts
March 11 2010 01:33 GMT
#260
On March 11 2010 10:30 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2010 10:26 Versatile wrote:
On March 11 2010 09:44 L wrote:
On March 11 2010 09:00 Incognito wrote:
Mayor elections. I am announcing my candidacy for office.

Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF.

BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections?

Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself.

Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG.

Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die.

About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles.

Over the past many games I've realized that the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town is probably the GF himself. Last game, for instance, Ace made repeated reference to the fact that he wanted to 'prove himself' through shooting. It was a pretty obvious self reference. When I asked called to be put back in, without even seeing the game I told him I was killing Ace, but the game was fucked and over by that point.


ermm, ace was innocent last game so that example actually goes against your argument.


Ah so you must understand? What does "pushing the GF" mean?


no idea, i just saw that his supporting example was incorrect and pointed it out.
"Over night The Conspiracy moves to eliminate a major threat to their plans. Many important officials are kidnapped and tortured, civilians are bombed and they use the spare ice to make delicious snow capped ice cream cones. Alas, someone has to die!"
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