On August 02 2022 01:55 GreenHorizons wrote: I can understand different perspectives on the practicality and righteousness of Pelosi going to Taiwan, but it is also a pretty naked provocation diplomatically. I expect a response, the severity of which is uncertain.
Thats the whole point. Your thinking is backwards. China's like 'this is ours, noone can come here'. Pelosi (and the US) is just reminding china that they can say w.e the fuck they want, it has no basis in reality and will be ignored. + Show Spoiler +
Sometimes one can wonder if your lenses are broken.
On August 02 2022 08:00 GreenHorizons wrote: Just to be clear, long established official US policy is that Taiwan is part of one China. Trump basically began the departure from that policy and Biden is continuing to escalate it.
People can rationalize or justify it all however they like, but the fact is that the US is on an escalatory path against China in contradiction to long established official US policy and the consequences (of the ongoing bipartisan escalatory path against China) could be catastrophic. Not just for China, the US, and/or Taiwan but the entire world.
Even if people think it's wholly righteous (nothing the US does ever is), disregarding the potential ramifications so haphazardly is irresponsibly dangerous.
Also the us doesnt recognize (and never did) china's claims over taiwan. They dont recognize taiwans independance either. Its the strategic ambiguity that keeps the statu quo.
Washington's "one China" policy, however, does not mean that the United States recognizes, nor agrees with Beijing's claims to sovereignty over Taiwan. On July 14, 1982, the Republican Reagan Administration gave specific assurances to Taiwan that the United States did not accept China's claim to sovereignty over the island (Six Assurances), and the U.S. Department of State informed the Senate that "[t]he United States takes no position on the question of Taiwan's sovereignty."
And since you advocate doing nothing to cool down the situation, i'd like to remind you that doing nothing is still an action. Which has consequences.
There actually were so many errors in your previous posts, its quite jarring. It started way before trump, Bush jr said in 2001 that if china attacked taiwan, the us would defend it at all costs.
President Bush was asked on 25 April 2001, "if Taiwan were attacked by China, do we (The U.S.) have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?" He responded, "Yes, we do...and the Chinese must understand that. The United States would do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself." He made it understood that "though we (China and the U.S.) have common interests, the Chinese must understand that there will be some areas where we disagree."On the advice of his advisors, Bush later made clear to the press that there was no change in American policy.
It's this hubris that I'm referencing as dangerously irresponsible and nakedly provocative.
Because piling up rocks in the south sea to claim it as chinas isnt hubris ? Making claims on japanese islands isnt nakedly provocative ? You need to take a step back and rethink your position if you take this move by pelosi as some kind of attack on chinas sovereignty. Its literally just reaffirming the US-Taiwan relationship to squash any attempt by china following the ukr invasion. If you view it as some kind of provocation, you're just spewing ccp propaganda and will be treated as such. Getting big flashbacks of "nato caused this" rn buddy
I think Pelosi's trip is a nakedly provocative move with nothing substantive to gain from it. Basically a matter of "play stupid games, win stupid prizes".
Interesting that people think it's both disapproved by the US government and a reaffirmation of US government foreign policy though.
Did you not read my post ? Strategic ambiguity.
I prefer the description of 'hypocritical doublespeak'.
Sure, but it works and china can't do shit about it in any way.
My point was that this brash hubris is dangerously irresponsible. The US is having a hard enough time protecting its own so called democracy.
As expected, Pelosi has arrived in Taiwan, and as expected the Chinese have nothing better to do than protest loudly and conduct some military exercises. This is all theatre at this point in time - when the time for the actual invasion arrives, it will be obvious to all. Just like how it was obvious Russia was about to invade Ukraine.
On August 02 2022 01:55 GreenHorizons wrote: I can understand different perspectives on the practicality and righteousness of Pelosi going to Taiwan, but it is also a pretty naked provocation diplomatically. I expect a response, the severity of which is uncertain.
Thats the whole point. Your thinking is backwards. China's like 'this is ours, noone can come here'. Pelosi (and the US) is just reminding china that they can say w.e the fuck they want, it has no basis in reality and will be ignored. + Show Spoiler +
Sometimes one can wonder if your lenses are broken.
On August 02 2022 08:00 GreenHorizons wrote: Just to be clear, long established official US policy is that Taiwan is part of one China. Trump basically began the departure from that policy and Biden is continuing to escalate it.
People can rationalize or justify it all however they like, but the fact is that the US is on an escalatory path against China in contradiction to long established official US policy and the consequences (of the ongoing bipartisan escalatory path against China) could be catastrophic. Not just for China, the US, and/or Taiwan but the entire world.
Even if people think it's wholly righteous (nothing the US does ever is), disregarding the potential ramifications so haphazardly is irresponsibly dangerous.
Also the us doesnt recognize (and never did) china's claims over taiwan. They dont recognize taiwans independance either. Its the strategic ambiguity that keeps the statu quo.
Washington's "one China" policy, however, does not mean that the United States recognizes, nor agrees with Beijing's claims to sovereignty over Taiwan. On July 14, 1982, the Republican Reagan Administration gave specific assurances to Taiwan that the United States did not accept China's claim to sovereignty over the island (Six Assurances), and the U.S. Department of State informed the Senate that "[t]he United States takes no position on the question of Taiwan's sovereignty."
And since you advocate doing nothing to cool down the situation, i'd like to remind you that doing nothing is still an action. Which has consequences.
There actually were so many errors in your previous posts, its quite jarring. It started way before trump, Bush jr said in 2001 that if china attacked taiwan, the us would defend it at all costs.
President Bush was asked on 25 April 2001, "if Taiwan were attacked by China, do we (The U.S.) have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?" He responded, "Yes, we do...and the Chinese must understand that. The United States would do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself." He made it understood that "though we (China and the U.S.) have common interests, the Chinese must understand that there will be some areas where we disagree."On the advice of his advisors, Bush later made clear to the press that there was no change in American policy.
It's this hubris that I'm referencing as dangerously irresponsible and nakedly provocative.
Because piling up rocks in the south sea to claim it as chinas isnt hubris ? Making claims on japanese islands isnt nakedly provocative ? You need to take a step back and rethink your position if you take this move by pelosi as some kind of attack on chinas sovereignty. Its literally just reaffirming the US-Taiwan relationship to squash any attempt by china following the ukr invasion. If you view it as some kind of provocation, you're just spewing ccp propaganda and will be treated as such. Getting big flashbacks of "nato caused this" rn buddy
I think Pelosi's trip is a nakedly provocative move with nothing substantive to gain from it. Basically a matter of "play stupid games, win stupid prizes".
Interesting that people think it's both disapproved by the US government and a reaffirmation of US government foreign policy though.
Did you not read my post ? Strategic ambiguity.
I prefer the description of 'hypocritical doublespeak'.
que, but it works and china can't do shit about it in any way.
My point was that this brash hubris is dangerously irresponsible. The US is having a hard enough time protecting its own so called democracy.
And your point is dumb, because its not brash nor irresponsible. It is in line with the US policy in south asia for the past 40years. It is precisely engineered so china can just moan about it on twitter while the rest of the world carry on. What would be irresponsible, would be to let china annex south asia just because you cant possibly walk and chew gum at the same time. I know you believe the democrats to be inepts. But pelosi has been doing that kind of shit since the 90s to consolidate the taiwan-us relationship. It is a well thought move.
Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day.
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day. + Show Spoiler +
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
I don't. At best you're talking about an imperialist pissing match over whose influence a vassal is under.
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day. + Show Spoiler +
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
I don't. At best you're talking about an imperialist pissing match over whose influence a vassal is under.
Only one is trying to dictate the 'vassal' policies and to invade it. You are wildly misinformed on this topic.
On August 03 2022 01:15 Erasme wrote: Then a lot of chinese sailors will visit the bottom of the sea courtesy of the us carrier group. It's also the best way to completly miss the 100year mark. What happens to a country in full economic turmoil starting a war it cannot win ? Guess we'll see after tonight, but i predict that youre full of shit .
Like Moskva, they'll be promoted to submarines. ;-)
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day.
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
The same things were said before WWI. It was claimed that Germany and Britain were too economically linked to fight a war and then they did anyway. Caused untold economic damage, but apparently nationalism was more important.
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day. + Show Spoiler +
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
I don't. At best you're talking about an imperialist pissing match over whose influence a vassal is under.
You are false equivocating the US and China as it pertains to Taiwan here. China is the only one who is actively seeking to erase Taiwan's identity and absorb them. The US is not doing that. You never answered whether you think China is doing the right or wrong thing in this situation. Should Taiwan become a part of China?
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day. + Show Spoiler +
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
I don't. At best you're talking about an imperialist pissing match over whose influence a vassal is under.
You are false equivocating the US and China as it pertains to Taiwan here. China is the only one who is actively seeking to erase Taiwan's identity and absorb them. The US is not doing that. You never answered whether you think China is doing the right or wrong thing in this situation. Should Taiwan become a part of China?
The big picture here is that this is the worst possible time to go on one of these PR campaigns that everyone knows is going to piss China off. What's been accomplished here with this? China was going to invade Taiwan tomorrow but wont now because Pelosi stopped by for a chat?
If China backs down now its enough of a slap to the face to Xi that they will double their efforts of propping up Russia and getting even with the US through Russia. Pushing China and Russia together doesn't sound productive to US interests, maybe its great for the keyboard warrior that sees the World in blacks and whites... But the multi-polar World is fast approaching, and its just coming to us faster with stunts like this. Regardless of who is 'right' or 'wrong'
Also, if China attacks... well... good job Nancy Pelosi i guess.
Brief recap of some of the problems facing China currently. I can agree with the creator that it's looking rather bleak for them - there's a lot of turmoil in different sectors and it doesn't look like it will end anytime soon.
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day. + Show Spoiler +
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
I don't. At best you're talking about an imperialist pissing match over whose influence a vassal is under.
You are false equivocating the US and China as it pertains to Taiwan here. China is the only one who is actively seeking to erase Taiwan's identity and absorb them. The US is not doing that. You never answered whether you think China is doing the right or wrong thing in this situation. Should Taiwan become a part of China?
The big picture here is that this is the worst possible time to go on one of these PR campaigns that everyone knows is going to piss China off. What's been accomplished here with this? China was going to invade Taiwan tomorrow but wont now because Pelosi stopped by for a chat?
If China backs down now its enough of a slap to the face to Xi that they will double their efforts of propping up Russia and getting even with the US through Russia. Pushing China and Russia together doesn't sound productive to US interests, maybe its great for the keyboard warrior that sees the World in blacks and whites... But the multi-polar World is fast approaching, and its just coming to us faster with stunts like this. Regardless of who is 'right' or 'wrong'
Also, if China attacks... well... good job Nancy Pelosi i guess.
Brinksmanship is an important part of a multipolar world. Just doing nothing and letting a country build up until it invades a neighbor is not good policy and Putin just showed us it does not work to just let the dictator do as he wants and hope that if he is rich enough he will keep his BS within his own borders. It is pretty certain that China knew what Putin was about too do. They are likely thinking of doing something similar. And what they did with Hong Kong should not have been met with a global shrug.
We all got to comfortable thinking that if people got rich they would keep making decisions to protect what makes them money, harmony. Clearly this failed so expect things to get uncomfortable because letting these dictators grow their empires is bad for us all long term.
Then what should be done? The way I see it, this strategy of containing China at all costs since Trump can backfire and just accelerate a ticking time bomb. The world was a safer place and economically better before the US tried to contain China by the Trump and now the Biden administration.
Sanctions clearly not working as Russia has resources, China is a near peer rival to the US. Both nuclear powers, a clear blunder by the US, pushing both of them to rely on each other. US alone can't contain either, but ganging up on them and pushing them in to a corner Is also not a wise decision.
The US should focus on Ukraine for now, as Putin should be dealt with in Ukraine with minimal loss of territory from Ukraine, that way It would also send a message to China. Fighting on two fronts is not wise.
This "one China policy" clearly isn't working out for either China or Taiwan. Maybe the US should try to broker some kind of agreement between the two, but this won't happen with the Cold War approach that the US is using to contain China.
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day. + Show Spoiler +
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
I don't. At best you're talking about an imperialist pissing match over whose influence a vassal is under.
You are false equivocating the US and China as it pertains to Taiwan here. China is the only one who is actively seeking to erase Taiwan's identity and absorb them. The US is not doing that. You never answered whether you think China is doing the right or wrong thing in this situation. Should Taiwan become a part of China?
The big picture here is that this is the worst possible time to go on one of these PR campaigns that everyone knows is going to piss China off. What's been accomplished here with this? China was going to invade Taiwan tomorrow but wont now because Pelosi stopped by for a chat?
If China backs down now its enough of a slap to the face to Xi that they will double their efforts of propping up Russia and getting even with the US through Russia. Pushing China and Russia together doesn't sound productive to US interests, maybe its great for the keyboard warrior that sees the World in blacks and whites... But the multi-polar World is fast approaching, and its just coming to us faster with stunts like this. Regardless of who is 'right' or 'wrong'
Also, if China attacks... well... good job Nancy Pelosi i guess.
Brinksmanship is an important part of a multipolar world. Just doing nothing and letting a country build up until it invades a neighbor is not good policy and Putin just showed us it does not work to just let the dictator do as he wants and hope that if he is rich enough he will keep his BS within his own borders. It is pretty certain that China knew what Putin was about too do. They are likely thinking of doing something similar. And what they did with Hong Kong should not have been met with a global shrug.
We all got to comfortable thinking that if people got rich they would keep making decisions to protect what makes them money, harmony. Clearly this failed so expect things to get uncomfortable because letting these dictators grow their empires is bad for us all long term.
Then what should be done? The way I see it, this strategy of containing China at all costs since Trump can backfire and just accelerate a ticking time bomb. The world was a safer place and economically better before the US tried to contain China by the Trump and now the Biden administration.
Sanctions clearly not working as Russia has resources, China is a near peer rival to the US. Both nuclear powers, a clear blunder by the US, pushing both of them to rely on each other. US alone can't contain either, but ganging up on them and pushing them in to a corner Is also not a wise decision.
The US should focus on Ukraine for now, as Putin should be dealt with in Ukraine with minimal loss of territory from Ukraine, that way It would also send a message to China. Fighting on two fronts is not wise.
This "one China policy" clearly isn't working out for either China or Taiwan. Maybe the US should try to broker some kind of agreement between the two, but this won't happen with the Cold War approach that the US is using to contain China.
Sanctions are working against Russia. It'll just take a bit more time before they run out of the reserves they had (probably another month). Their economy is tanking hard right now regardless.
And speaking of China/Taiwan and "one China policy" - US can't broker any deal there really, they've been portrayed as #1 enemy in Chinese propaganda for ages now so the public won't accept any such thing. CCP also most likely doesn't want that since they have to use this as an opportunity to show resolve in the face of the foreign devil trying to dictate what they should do and project the aura of strength and invincibility to sway their subjects. Not to mention agreeing to anything that isn't the complete annexation of Taiwan (regardless of who might intervene) would also go against what they've been preaching for decades now and they can't really afford to contradict themselves. Especially not in a time of crisis they're going through right now.
As to what should be done? Nothing really. China knows full well they can't afford any kind of war right now. They're in serious trouble as is and if they were also hit with sanctions similar to Russia they'd be effectively crippled. Best thing to do right now in my opinion is to just wait and see how the internal situation in China evolves (are they able to deal with all the crises currently affecting them?) and also how they'll cope with global economic crash that'll hit this year or early next year.
My assumption at the moment is that there's a high chance of China imploding under all that pressure, but we'll just have to wait and see. I'm also not entirely sure what would happen if China would indeed implode and CCP would lose control. Civil war? Years of unrests? New dictatorship put in place?
US is trying to delay the Taiwan takeover until they get their(and EU's) chip manufacturing off the ground but i think eventually, Taiwan will be China's.
I think they are doing it to prepare for the invasion but I just don't see what China has to gain from them for what they will have to pay for it. The status quo just works so much better than any post Taiwan invasion scenario.
EPT
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