Master's Coliseum #8

Playoffs - Week 1 Preview

Jan 10-12, 12:00 GMT (+00:00)

by Wax

After a tumultuous group stage that saw both Clem and Maru get eliminated, eight players have advanced to the playoffs of Master's Coliseum 8. Will Serral breeze to victory now that his bête noire has been removed from the equation? Or can the other seven players scrounge together the two wins needed to remove the Finnish Phenom from the double-elimination bracket?

The first weekend of playoff competition will see both the upper and lower bracket first rounds completed, eliminating two players from the competition.

Upper Bracket Quarterfinals #1: herO vs Astrea

The dominance of the Clem-MaxPax-herO online trinity overshadowed nearly all other players during the off-season, but Astrea also enjoyed a sneaky-good winter. He picked up a number of quality wins against players like ByuN, Dark, and even MaxPax himself, and that good form culminated in Group A of MC8 where he took down SHIN and CURE to advance in second place behind Serral (even giving Serral his only map loss).

Unfortunately, Astrea has been given a nasty draw in his opening match. There's a three tier system in PvP at the moment, with MaxPax on top, herO in second, and everyone else battling it out beneath them. Furthermore, the historical record for Astrea versus herO is extremely bleak, which makes this look like an easy win for the Korean Protoss.

Upper Bracket Quarterfinals #2: Reynor vs Spirit

The perennially underrated Spirit proved his abilities once more in the group stages, breaking Clem's PvT hot streak and helping eliminate the world champion from the tournament. Unfortunately, Spirit won't be able to utilize those TvP skills in the first round of the playoffs, as he goes up against a fearsome Zerg in Reynor.

There's been some talk around Reynor's commitment to SC2 and the amount of time he spends playing League of Legends (including from Reynor himself), but it proved to be idle chatter in Group B where Reynor comfortably advanced with a 3-0 record. While tougher tests lie ahead, he did look to be in pretty solid form—and that bodes rather poorly for Spirit who has historically fared quite poorly against Reynor (including an ongoing 4-match losing streak).

Upper Bracket Quarterfinals #3: Zoun vs MaxPax

MaxPax's quest to prove himself as more than a weekly cup bully got off to a okay-ish start in the group stages, as he advanced from his group in second place while dropping a series to the big tournament veteran Reynor. While I remain skeptical about MaxPax's ability to perform in a high-stakes BO5 against the best players in the world, he at least gets a chance to ease his way into the playoffs with a relatively soft match against Zoun.

Zoun has been surprisingly good for someone just four months removed from military service, and some of his micro against Clem in Group D actually looked better than during his pre-military days (despite his 1-2 loss). While Zoun did look sharp, MaxPax has been such a dominant force in PvP over the last few years that I can't give the upset any serious consideration just yet. Still, Zoun tends to raise his game for important matches, so I expect him to put up a respectable fight.

Upper Bracket Quarterfinals #4: Serral vs GuMiho

Unfortunately for GuMiho, he looks to be the victim in the most lopsided match of the first round. Serral hasn't lost to a non-Clem Terran in almost a year, last losing to Maru in the group stages of Master's Coliseum #7 (yes, Maru CAN beat Serral in limited circumstances). If you remove both Maru and Clem from the equation, then Serral hasn't lost to a different Terran since 2022 (losing to ByuN at HomeStory Cup). Only world championship-class TvZ players can hope to take Serral down, and GuMiho just isn't on that level at the moment.

Predictions

The first round of the playoffs looks to be pretty straight-forward, pitting underdogs against heavy favorites. A few years ago, two PvP's would have triggered an upset warning, but MaxPax and herO have played so well in the mirror that they've shattered its reputation for being a coinflip.

If the favorites win as expected, then we should get some close lower-round matches on Sunday. There's really not much separating Spirit, Astrea, Zoun, and GuMiho, making their matches the real coinflips of the first playoff weekend.

herO 3 - 1 Astrea
Reynor 3 - 1 Spirit
MaxPax 3 - 2 Zoun
Serral 3 - 0 GuMiho

Spirit 3 - 2 Astrea
Zoun 3 - 2 GuMiho

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