On August 06 2022 19:22 Sermokala wrote: I think they are doing it to prepare for the invasion but I just don't see what China has to gain from them for what they will have to pay for it. The status quo just works so much better than any post Taiwan invasion scenario.
Before February of this year, i would have agreed with you.
But Putin proved very clearly that autocrats are absolutely willing to accept a much worse situation for their country for some weird imperialistic goal.
Preparing for a war in Taiwan is probably a good idea. Having chip factories not in Taiwan is also probably a good idea, considering how important chips are for basically everything.
China is much more vulnerable to the suite of sanctions that were applied to russia than russia is. The difference between a country that needs to buy things from the outside to function for basic things like food and gas vs one that doesn't is huge. Loseing complete access to chips made outside the nation for manufacturing would criple any value-added industries they have at a time when they're trying to manufacture a middle class.
I would be a lot more afraid of an invasion if they were tripping or quadrupling the rail network between Russia and china. For all the belt and road projects they're doing they have no ability to protect any of them outside of the south china sea.
On August 06 2022 20:26 Sermokala wrote: China is much more vulnerable to the suite of sanctions that were applied to russia than russia is. The difference between a country that needs to buy things from the outside to function for basic things like food and gas vs one that doesn't is huge. Loseing complete access to chips made outside the nation for manufacturing would criple any value-added industries they have at a time when they're trying to manufacture a middle class.
I would be a lot more afraid of an invasion if they were tripping or quadrupling the rail network between Russia and china. For all the belt and road projects they're doing they have no ability to protect any of them outside of the south china sea.
It would go both ways obviously. The sanctions against Russia also negatively effect the economies of the west. This would be far worse when it comes to China. There are alternatives for Russian fossil,at least to some extend. What is the alternative for all the production that comes from China? I dont see any not even in the long term. You cant bring all the production back not even in theory,there is already a shortage of labour. There might be an alternative or work around for millions of barrels of Russian oil and gas but i dont see how there is an alternative for a cheap and skilled labour force that is larger then the population of the US.
On August 06 2022 20:26 Sermokala wrote: China is much more vulnerable to the suite of sanctions that were applied to russia than russia is. The difference between a country that needs to buy things from the outside to function for basic things like food and gas vs one that doesn't is huge. Loseing complete access to chips made outside the nation for manufacturing would criple any value-added industries they have at a time when they're trying to manufacture a middle class.
I would be a lot more afraid of an invasion if they were tripping or quadrupling the rail network between Russia and china. For all the belt and road projects they're doing they have no ability to protect any of them outside of the south china sea.
It would go both ways obviously. The sanctions against Russia also negatively effect the economies of the west. This would be far worse when it comes to China. There are alternatives for Russian fossil,at least to some extend. What is the alternative for all the production that comes from China? I dont see any not even in the long term. You cant bring all the production back not even in theory,there is already a shortage of labour. There might be an alternative or work around for millions of barrels of Russian oil and gas but i dont see how there is an alternative for a cheap and skilled labour force that is larger then the population of the US.
You have to keep in mind that a lot of production has already been moved outside of China. When pandemic hit and because of energy crisis China had to completely or temporarily shut down a lot of factories so production was stalled to a point where plenty of businesses moved out to Vietnam and other countries. Another thing are their lockdowns due to 0 covid policy, where the biggest ports in the world are not operating at all which creates another supply problem. Companies see this and know that it's unreliable to have your production facilities in China so the exodus is already under way.
In other news, supposedly real estate market in China is in such a sad state right now that they've introduced barter trade and are selling real estate in exchange for produce. You can literally buy real estate for watermelons, garlic and peaches.
The amount of production moving out of China is greatly exaggerated. You can't replace the second biggest economy of the world. At best you can diversify supply chains. And even if you could replace all their production you still have opportunity costs and lose the benefits of comparative advantage. Any decoupling will come at great cost to all countries in the world.
On August 03 2022 01:40 Sermokala wrote: Didn't take gh for someone that would support imperialism, sad day. + Show Spoiler +
China isn't going to invade Taiwan beacuse it would crash their economy as fast as it would the worlds. People wouldn't insure oil tankers traveling from the middle east if they declare war on the us like that. If they are even trying to be as careful to not involve the us somehow it would make the south china sea a warzone that shipping will not travel through.
Remember Russia produces enough food to feed itself and oil to run it's economy. China has neither of these things and would despretly need the chip factories that Taiwan is sure to blow when the first rocket falls.
I don't. At best you're talking about an imperialist pissing match over whose influence a vassal is under.
You are false equivocating the US and China as it pertains to Taiwan here. China is the only one who is actively seeking to erase Taiwan's identity and absorb them. The US is not doing that. You never answered whether you think China is doing the right or wrong thing in this situation. Should Taiwan become a part of China?
The big picture here is that this is the worst possible time to go on one of these PR campaigns that everyone knows is going to piss China off. What's been accomplished here with this? China was going to invade Taiwan tomorrow but wont now because Pelosi stopped by for a chat?
If China backs down now its enough of a slap to the face to Xi that they will double their efforts of propping up Russia and getting even with the US through Russia. Pushing China and Russia together doesn't sound productive to US interests, maybe its great for the keyboard warrior that sees the World in blacks and whites... But the multi-polar World is fast approaching, and its just coming to us faster with stunts like this. Regardless of who is 'right' or 'wrong'
Also, if China attacks... well... good job Nancy Pelosi i guess.
Brinksmanship is an important part of a multipolar world. Just doing nothing and letting a country build up until it invades a neighbor is not good policy and Putin just showed us it does not work to just let the dictator do as he wants and hope that if he is rich enough he will keep his BS within his own borders. It is pretty certain that China knew what Putin was about too do. They are likely thinking of doing something similar. And what they did with Hong Kong should not have been met with a global shrug.
We all got to comfortable thinking that if people got rich they would keep making decisions to protect what makes them money, harmony. Clearly this failed so expect things to get uncomfortable because letting these dictators grow their empires is bad for us all long term.
Then what should be done? The way I see it, this strategy of containing China at all costs since Trump can backfire and just accelerate a ticking time bomb. The world was a safer place and economically better before the US tried to contain China by the Trump and now the Biden administration.
Sanctions clearly not working as Russia has resources, China is a near peer rival to the US. Both nuclear powers, a clear blunder by the US, pushing both of them to rely on each other. US alone can't contain either, but ganging up on them and pushing them in to a corner Is also not a wise decision.
The US should focus on Ukraine for now, as Putin should be dealt with in Ukraine with minimal loss of territory from Ukraine, that way It would also send a message to China. Fighting on two fronts is not wise.
This "one China policy" clearly isn't working out for either China or Taiwan. Maybe the US should try to broker some kind of agreement between the two, but this won't happen with the Cold War approach that the US is using to contain China.
You need to read upon taiwan-us relationship. The US will not broker any kind of agreement between the two. "[W]e see no mediation role for the United States” between Taiwan and the PRC". Also the plan of focusing on ukraine and let china take taiwan will, strangely, not give the message that taiwan is off limit.
I'm not saying that it won't be a huge hit to global economics but there aren't any critical industries in China that are value-added like any number of nations could pick up in the longterm. Africa is going to be growing in population greatly over the next few decades and will need some sort of economy to pick up that population boom. India exists as well as Indonesia. All those belt and road improvements create ready-made infrastructure to replace chinas production in the event of a war. How is china going to repossess what they've paid for if the nations just nationalize them?
You won't even need to fully replace them long term as the collapse of the Chinese government would at some point bring about a new government and the reopening of their economy.
On August 06 2022 19:22 Sermokala wrote: I think they are doing it to prepare for the invasion but I just don't see what China has to gain from them for what they will have to pay for it. The status quo just works so much better than any post Taiwan invasion scenario.
i don't think an actual invasion is on the table. China works and would rather continue to work on Taiwan's institutions trying to CCP-ize them and then going for a one state, two system kind of deal. i can't see Xi pulling out a Putin "special op.".
Perhaps Taiwan should take control of Main land China, and bring democracy instead of light the light to medium totalitarianship that is in place there right now. Or police state, as it where.
And about a war, oil is an important asset to secure for any country going to war. China is a huge oil consumer, that is why the goverment has been pushing electric production of civilian vehicles for over a decade. That and because always it’s cities air are extremely polluted. The US would cut off China from Venezuela, because the US navy controls the pacific, and the US navy and its allies control the exit to the gulf of Persia, and it would embargo Iran oil. Saudi Arabia would quickly stop selling oil to China in the event of it invading another country. Nigeria could be a possible supplier, and it is unclear what Norway would do with its oil.
So basically the ccp would be oil starved. Unless there exists a pipeline from Iran to China, because transporting oil via land is immensely expensive, unless a pipeline is operation, and it could be bombed as well.
Another factor to consider, is that China is a huge food importer, so several months into the war people would starve to death in China.
Remains to be seen how countries in the South Pacific would react, India would of course condemn the ccp, as they are not great friends, but what would Australia, Japan, and South Korea do? South Korea would probably remain neutral, as China and Korea both north and south have always had great relationships.
The ccp is not blind. They are playing the bully card as usual, bending on countries that have no real power and influence. The only country communist China invaded was Tibet, which, well, has no military at all, and is not an international player. Easy to bully a country who had a spiritual leader at its head. Taiwan has the US on its side, not because it actually cares about Taiwan, but because it knows how much it rattles the cage of the ccp. That one piece of the puzzle they never took over.
The relationship between China and Taiwan is not the same as that between Russia and Ukraine. You should not confuse the two. In October 1971, the 26th UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 2758, expelling the representatives of the Taiwan authorities and restoring the seat and all legal rights of the government of the people's Republic of China in the United Nations. In September 1972, China and Japan signed a joint statement and announced the establishment of diplomatic relations. Japan recognizes the government of the people's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, fully understands and respects the position of the Chinese government that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the people's Republic of China, and adheres to the position stipulated in Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation. In December 1978, China and the United States issued a communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations, in which the United States "recognized the government of the people's Republic of China as the only legitimate government of China"; "Recognizing China's position, that is, there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of China". At present, 161 countries have established diplomatic relations with the people's Republic of China. They all recognize the one China principle and promise to handle their relations with Taiwan within the framework of one China. Is it the basic principle of western social interaction that the United States and some European countries keep going back on their words?
On August 07 2022 10:14 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: The relationship between China and Taiwan is not the same as that between Russia and Ukraine. You should not confuse the two. In October 1971, the 26th UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 2758, expelling the representatives of the Taiwan authorities and restoring the seat and all legal rights of the government of the people's Republic of China in the United Nations. In September 1972, China and Japan signed a joint statement and announced the establishment of diplomatic relations. Japan recognizes the government of the people's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, fully understands and respects the position of the Chinese government that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the people's Republic of China, and adheres to the position stipulated in Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation. In December 1978, China and the United States issued a communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations, in which the United States "recognized the government of the people's Republic of China as the only legitimate government of China"; "Recognizing China's position, that is, there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of China". At present, 161 countries have established diplomatic relations with the people's Republic of China. They all recognize the one China principle and promise to handle their relations with Taiwan within the framework of one China. Is it the basic principle of western social interaction that the United States and some European countries keep going back on their words?
How can you restore the seat of the PRC when the PRC never had a seat before and you do so by taking one from ROC? It is plain to all observers that there is no China that is more real or legitimate, there is simply one that is bigger. PRC won the civil war so they get the prize but you ought not to get too carried away with the propaganda. Nothing was restored and nobody believes there is one China, not even in the PRC government. They want the to be one, but they recognize there are two.
On August 07 2022 10:14 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: The relationship between China and Taiwan is not the same as that between Russia and Ukraine. You should not confuse the two. In October 1971, the 26th UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 2758, expelling the representatives of the Taiwan authorities and restoring the seat and all legal rights of the government of the people's Republic of China in the United Nations. In September 1972, China and Japan signed a joint statement and announced the establishment of diplomatic relations. Japan recognizes the government of the people's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, fully understands and respects the position of the Chinese government that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the people's Republic of China, and adheres to the position stipulated in Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation. In December 1978, China and the United States issued a communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations, in which the United States "recognized the government of the people's Republic of China as the only legitimate government of China"; "Recognizing China's position, that is, there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of China". At present, 161 countries have established diplomatic relations with the people's Republic of China. They all recognize the one China principle and promise to handle their relations with Taiwan within the framework of one China. Is it the basic principle of western social interaction that the United States and some European countries keep going back on their words?
How's the invasion of taiwan going buddy ? Eating up that propaganda like it's hot cake eh
On August 03 2022 01:14 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: Pelosi's visit to Taiwan gave China an excuse for military action against Taiwan。 Starting from the evening of August 2, the eastern theater of the Chinese people's Liberation Army will carry out a series of joint military operations around Taiwan Island, conduct joint sea and air training in the airspace of the north, southwest and East South China Sea of Taiwan Island, conduct long-range fire live fire in the Taiwan Strait, and organize normal missile fire test in the waters east of Taiwan Island. The Chinese media has driven the mood of the Chinese people. After Pelosi leaves Taiwan tomorrow, substantive military action may be taken. China chose to attack Taiwan without attacking American targets. Will the US military declare war with China? I don't know what will really happen, and I don't know what degree of military action will happen. What should happen in these days.
I hope you don't mind going back to extra polluted water/air just to spite the west btw. Must feel good knowing your government never really cared about it.
On August 07 2022 10:14 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: The relationship between China and Taiwan is not the same as that between Russia and Ukraine. You should not confuse the two. In October 1971, the 26th UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 2758, expelling the representatives of the Taiwan authorities and restoring the seat and all legal rights of the government of the people's Republic of China in the United Nations. In September 1972, China and Japan signed a joint statement and announced the establishment of diplomatic relations. Japan recognizes the government of the people's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, fully understands and respects the position of the Chinese government that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the people's Republic of China, and adheres to the position stipulated in Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation. In December 1978, China and the United States issued a communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations, in which the United States "recognized the government of the people's Republic of China as the only legitimate government of China"; "Recognizing China's position, that is, there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of China". At present, 161 countries have established diplomatic relations with the people's Republic of China. They all recognize the one China principle and promise to handle their relations with Taiwan within the framework of one China. Is it the basic principle of western social interaction that the United States and some European countries keep going back on their words?
This is really creepy to read. Taiwan doesn't want to be a part of China. That's where the conversation ends. You shouldn't want them to be forced.
On August 07 2022 10:14 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: The relationship between China and Taiwan is not the same as that between Russia and Ukraine. You should not confuse the two. In October 1971, the 26th UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 2758, expelling the representatives of the Taiwan authorities and restoring the seat and all legal rights of the government of the people's Republic of China in the United Nations. In September 1972, China and Japan signed a joint statement and announced the establishment of diplomatic relations. Japan recognizes the government of the people's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, fully understands and respects the position of the Chinese government that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the people's Republic of China, and adheres to the position stipulated in Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation. In December 1978, China and the United States issued a communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations, in which the United States "recognized the government of the people's Republic of China as the only legitimate government of China"; "Recognizing China's position, that is, there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of China". At present, 161 countries have established diplomatic relations with the people's Republic of China. They all recognize the one China principle and promise to handle their relations with Taiwan within the framework of one China. Is it the basic principle of western social interaction that the United States and some European countries keep going back on their words?
The only reason why the West participates in this whole "one China" masquerade is because China is threatening to invade if Taiwan were to declare independence, not because it actually considers Taiwan an integral part of PRC.
On August 07 2022 05:24 pebble444 wrote: Perhaps Taiwan should take control of Main land China, and bring democracy instead of light the light to medium totalitarianship that is in place there right now. Or police state, as it where.
And about a war, oil is an important asset to secure for any country going to war. China is a huge oil consumer, that is why the goverment has been pushing electric production of civilian vehicles for over a decade. That and because always it’s cities air are extremely polluted. The US would cut off China from Venezuela, because the US navy controls the pacific, and the US navy and its allies control the exit to the gulf of Persia, and it would embargo Iran oil. Saudi Arabia would quickly stop selling oil to China in the event of it invading another country. Nigeria could be a possible supplier, and it is unclear what Norway would do with its oil.
So basically the ccp would be oil starved. Unless there exists a pipeline from Iran to China, because transporting oil via land is immensely expensive, unless a pipeline is operation, and it could be bombed as well.
Another factor to consider, is that China is a huge food importer, so several months into the war people would starve to death in China.
Remains to be seen how countries in the South Pacific would react, India would of course condemn the ccp, as they are not great friends, but what would Australia, Japan, and South Korea do? South Korea would probably remain neutral, as China and Korea both north and south have always had great relationships.
The ccp is not blind. They are playing the bully card as usual, bending on countries that have no real power and influence. The only country communist China invaded was Tibet, which, well, has no military at all, and is not an international player. Easy to bully a country who had a spiritual leader at its head. Taiwan has the US on its side, not because it actually cares about Taiwan, but because it knows how much it rattles the cage of the ccp. That one piece of the puzzle they never took over.
China invaded India and Vietnam and attempted to invade Taiwan as well. Not to mention the Korea war. They were quite active militarily for a while but not since Mao died.
What the media in Europe and the United States and China publicize is exactly the same. It is always double standard, always arrogant and hypocritical, and also very ignorant. It can be seen clearly from the thoughts of ordinary Europeans and Americans in this small forum. Europe and the United States developed rapidly through various colonization and looting, accompanied by various bloody wars. It is fortunate that China does not need to rob other countries and can develop by relying on its own diligence. The United States has launched the most wars in the world and has not been threatened or sanctioned. No matter whether it is a just or shameful war, morality can not restrain anyone, only strength.
On August 07 2022 19:13 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: What the media in Europe and the United States and China publicize is exactly the same. It is always double standard, always arrogant and hypocritical, and also very ignorant. It can be seen clearly from the thoughts of ordinary Europeans and Americans in this small forum. Europe and the United States developed rapidly through various colonization and looting, accompanied by various bloody wars. It is fortunate that China does not need to rob other countries and can develop by relying on its own diligence. The United States has launched the most wars in the world and has not been threatened or sanctioned. No matter whether it is a just or shameful war, morality can not restrain anyone, only strength.
The colonial period was a consequence of rapid development, not the cause. I'm also not sure which countries the US colonized. Do you mean the expansion to the Pacific Ocean? In that case, China is no better. China's history is a history of constant expansion through military conquest. Here's a video showing how China's borders changed over the years:
Everything outside of the Han/Tan/Song core are other countries that China continues to rob. They just happen to have been annexed into China. Case in point: Xinjiang.
As for the wars, the number of wars waged by China dwarfs those waged by the US:
Also China relying on its own diligence? China has been a massive benefactor of Western investment ever since Deng's reforms. It also heavily relies on technology theft...
On August 07 2022 19:13 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: What the media in Europe and the United States and China publicize is exactly the same. It is always double standard, always arrogant and hypocritical, and also very ignorant. It can be seen clearly from the thoughts of ordinary Europeans and Americans in this small forum. Europe and the United States developed rapidly through various colonization and looting, accompanied by various bloody wars. It is fortunate that China does not need to rob other countries and can develop by relying on its own diligence. The United States has launched the most wars in the world and has not been threatened or sanctioned. No matter whether it is a just or shameful war, morality can not restrain anyone, only strength.
What double standards? The China/Taiwan situation and western countries' official stance towards it can be simplified to: I know she's your wife but I still won't let you beat her.
I would also like to remind you that even though European countries do have a history of conquest and colonization (like most countries) it's not like they're actively trying to reclaim their colonies or conquer new land. You really think other countries would be OK if suddenly UK decided on "One England" policy and wanted to invade Ireland all over again or demanded others don't count US as a separate country?
On August 07 2022 19:13 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: What the media in Europe and the United States and China publicize is exactly the same. It is always double standard, always arrogant and hypocritical, and also very ignorant. It can be seen clearly from the thoughts of ordinary Europeans and Americans in this small forum. Europe and the United States developed rapidly through various colonization and looting, accompanied by various bloody wars. It is fortunate that China does not need to rob other countries and can develop by relying on its own diligence. The United States has launched the most wars in the world and has not been threatened or sanctioned. No matter whether it is a just or shameful war, morality can not restrain anyone, only strength.
This is just gaslighting and whataboutism. Why should Taiwan be forced to join China against their will? I'm not asking what bad things have happened before. I am asking why Taiwan shouldn't have a choice. Why?
EPT
