The China Politics Thread - Page 30

On July 25 2022 19:55 Ardias wrote:
Well, if you judge the PRC claim over Taiwan, you should also remember that Taiwan did not renounce their claim over PRC territory (though downplayed it from Chiang Kai-Shek times)
https://www.chinasmack.com/taiwan-president-mainland-china-is-still-our-territory
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/24/china/china-taiwan-conflict-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

As for PRC military capabilities to take Taiwan - maybe not now, but at the rate of growth of PLA Navy in 5-6 years it would be possible. Breaking the US naval blockade further from their own shores - that's what would be a problem.
I did some counting about a month ago, and in the last decade PRC commisioned roughly the same amount of combat ships by tonnage as the next 3 navies combined (1077k ton against US 629k ton, Russia 260k ton and UK 182k ton, though there may be some margin of error in figures). Granted that US Navy had large established fleet beforehand and still twice as large as PLA Navy, even a bit more.
But since PLA Navy doctrine revolves around control of South China Sea/Yellow Sea and confrontation with Taiwan, their ships are generally less in size than US ones, who need to project their power all over the world. Hence more ships for similar tonnage. And that's why it would be hard for US to concentrate even half of the carrier groups within 3-4 days in one place (especially those stationed in Atlantic Ocean). If South Korea and Japan would enter the fray though, it would be different matter, since both posses very capable navies (especially Japan).

But even then trying to prevent Chinese forces movement through Taiwan strait would be extremely difficult due to Chinese having huge home advantage in terms of long-range air defence and land-based air force.

But then to break the US-imposed naval blokade somewhere in line of Southern Vietnam-Phillipines-Okinawa-Kyushu would be much harder for PLA Navy, and China is very depndant on it's trade. That's possibly one of the reasons why China is so invested into "Belt and Road" through Central Asia, investing ton of money there and actively seeking to expand BRICS and SCO, to have alternate routes for imports and exports and secure favourable resource concesisons.

On July 26 2022 00:19 KwarK wrote:

This is called brinksmanship. Obviously it is insane for the US to risk a potential war to sail through a strait. But obviously it is also insane for PRC to risk a potential war to stop someone sailing through a strait. So the game is to try to act insane to force the other party to make a concession in the name of sanity. That is why the US does this with no hesitation, they believe that PRC will give in.

However there is a counterplay, called “salami tactics”. This is where you don’t grab the whole stick of salami from the other side at once, instead you cut yourself a thin slice. Nobody could object to you taking a thin slice, especially when they still have the rest of the salami. They may protest the slice but it is not worth firing nukes over. Then you take another slice. Then another.

This is what PRC does in the South China Sea with artificial islands. It would be insane to go to war simply because PRC landed some engineers on a reef. And it would be insane to go to war because they’re putting down concrete to expand it into an island. And it would be insane to go to war because they are converting it into an airfield. And it would be insane to go to war just because they’re keeping bombers on that airfield. And so on and so on. Grabbing the whole salami at once may cross a red line but it is hard to justify how any slice by itself does.

Every great power plays this game. It is why the US is slowly escalating the arms it sends Ukraine. Each arms shipment that carries a new weapons system is another slice of salami but Russia will not go to war with the US simply because they gave slightly better shells to an existing artillery platform.

On July 26 2022 01:18 Sermokala wrote:

The us blockade doesn't need to be a ring like that. The us sits a few destroyers in the Indian Ocean and tells any oil tankers from the middle east to go the other direction. The Chinese Industrial experiment ends in weeks and the nation loses half it's population to starvation in a year. The rest of the world sees no issue because a lot of demand for oil goes away and the middle east would fall over themselves to keep their nations going. The Chinese navy has no ability to operate outside of the south china sea and any ballistic missile capable of taking out a carrier looks like a nuke heading for India. Meanwhile the other half of the us navy sits in pearl harbor and cuts off food shipments from the western hemisphere.

The usa doesn't need to shed a drop of blood or fire a single bullet to win a war against China. The USA doesn't control the worlds seas the usa controls the worlds oceans.

On July 26 2022 03:35 maybenexttime wrote:
Are you equally worried about China turning fascist?

On July 26 2022 03:51 Manit0u wrote:


One could argue this ship has already sailed...

On July 26 2022 11:59 winteriscoming wrote:
It might be hard to swallow that on chinese forums they say Poland is the most anti-China european country, which I didn't really believe, I don't know much about Poland and I guess the Polish won't know much about us too, howcome that they would dislike us?

On July 26 2022 17:57 Silvanel wrote:
I don't think Poland is European country with strongest anti-Chinese sentiment. Why would it be? We have little to do with each other, almost no common history. We however, given our past as USSR satelite country and our previous communist governemnt see right-trough state propaganda. Hence we are very sceptical of Your ruling party and what it says.

If I have to guess which EU country has strongest anti-Chinese agenda I would say Russia. Afterall some 50 years ago your soldiers were shoting at each other and USSR leadership seriously considered invasion/nuking of China. Just because they are being nice right now doesnt mean they dont want Your land. Its Russia. Russia doesnt have pernament allies, only subjects and enemies.

On July 26 2022 22:38 JimmiC wrote:


Ours is so high because we have so many people from Hong Kong and Mainland China. Those who have gotten out hate the CCP. Its the top single response of ethnicity after Canadian, which is a sign of recency and then hearing their personal stories influences us who are not from there as well.

On July 25 2022 21:04 winteriscoming wrote:

if you want to murder me you can speak it out directly lol