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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On October 14 2023 05:58 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2023 05:56 Yurie wrote:On October 14 2023 03:58 Ghostcom wrote:On October 14 2023 02:52 Yurie wrote:On October 13 2023 06:32 zeo wrote:On October 13 2023 02:13 2Pacalypse- wrote:On October 10 2023 23:04 zeo wrote:
Anyway, something big happening right now around Avdeevka. Huge artillery/bombing campaign early morning and a push to Berdychi. UKR troops will counterattack though everything is now in a fog of war. Will be a dramatic change for thia part of the front if they can keep the positions.
I saw the reports about ex-Wagner being sent to Avdeevka and thought nothing about it. Turns out they were planning this for quite some time Any updates on how this turned out, or is it still too early to tell? Avdeevka is the most fortified town on the planet, billions were spent from 2014 building reinforced concrete fortifications and positions there, and something like 15000 soldiers are there. A full on assault is suicide, only way to take the town is to cut it off from supplies and starve the garrison out. Since 2014 its been untouchable right next to Donetsk Some maps from yesterday: A pro-Russian source: And a very cautious source that turns out to be right most of the time and posted at the same time. You can view his whole map of Ukraine here https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.15489121035866,37.91556114209466&z=9:Whats sure for both of them is that the Russians took the extremely important slag heap to the north of Avdeevka yesterday that looks over the entire town. They moved a massive amount of heavy equipment to the area and are bombing everything that moves inside the town, though the artillery systems farther from the town can work on them. That said they are aiming to pincer the supply routes to the city by going for the villages of Sjeverne and Berdychi. Very heavy fighting with attacks and counterattacks and lost equipment on both sides, Informational suppression going on and obviously a lot of stuffing and propaganda from all sides. Avdeevka was created to be lynchpin fortress and taking it will be a slow and very bloody process even if the Russians manage to cut off the supply routes within the next week. Just want to comment that this was a good post. Please do more of this type of posting.  I will encourage you to expand on why you think the post was good? It started with history of the situation which seems to contain a bit of hyperbole but is still reasonable. There was an explanation of the current status as understood, which also seems accurate from what I know. Then finally a prediction on what can happen, which is a possible discussion topic. In this case that taking the city will be hard and requires cutting of the supply roads, not certain to happen. It was not a Russian or Ukrainian propaganda piece or focused on a specific small detail. Ukrainians still have the territory designated as taken. The basic problem with it isn’t the structure of the post, it’s that the content is fictional. This assault has been Russia’s biggest catastrophe of the year to date. Literally everything zeo posts is from propaganda sources.
"Russia isnt winning fast enough"
Why are you so jittery around Avdeevka? I mean at least the NAFO schizos have moved on to Israel-Gaza and the conversations are less cringe but whats the point of the desperate propaganda around Avdeevka? Ive watched the videos, two minute montages and at the end maybe one APC gets hit, a collumn were maybe two vehicles are smoking. Its a stark contrast to the 40-50 vehicle graveyards of NATO equipment weve been seeing every few days over the last few months. And you had people looking at Leopards that were rusted out and charcoal black and said unironically 'its only damaged, will get pulled out' ect.
Avdeevka has 15k troops there, this fortification was built up continuously for 9 years, all important strategic positions are made from reinforced concrete, an entire network of fortifications is buried in the ground with a significant part of them united by passages, trenches, underground tunnels ect. Built to allow you to survive the worst artillery shelling, visible above-ground parts of the dugouts are welded anticumulative grates for protection from anti-tank missiles.
The Ukrainians lost tens of thousands of troops attacking open fields and outhouses which are built like mud huts with the offensive hitting a brick wall when it reached the very first defencive lines. Of course the Russians are going to bleed out of their ass to take Avdeevka even with the UKR army being weakend after the failed offensive. But taking it means a lot of Ukrainians died too especially if they throw in everything to defend lost positions like in Bahmut.
Take it easy with the propaganda. 'UKR sources say thousands of Russians died', no evidance, no nothing, completely contradictory to the narrative of the last year. But fuck it they'll believe anything.
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Once again, you're using that wrong.
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On October 14 2023 16:06 Mikau wrote:
Once again, you're using that wrong.
Its how it was used during the whole failed offensive so Im glad you can see how stupid saying something like that is
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No, it wasn't.
You really don't read the discussions you are taking place in, do you? You just repeat whatever oneliner you decided to fixate on at the time and pretend that that constitutes an argument, mixed with whatever propaganda talking points the current official Kremlin line is at the time.
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On October 14 2023 05:56 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2023 03:58 Ghostcom wrote:On October 14 2023 02:52 Yurie wrote:On October 13 2023 06:32 zeo wrote:On October 13 2023 02:13 2Pacalypse- wrote:On October 10 2023 23:04 zeo wrote:
Anyway, something big happening right now around Avdeevka. Huge artillery/bombing campaign early morning and a push to Berdychi. UKR troops will counterattack though everything is now in a fog of war. Will be a dramatic change for thia part of the front if they can keep the positions.
I saw the reports about ex-Wagner being sent to Avdeevka and thought nothing about it. Turns out they were planning this for quite some time Any updates on how this turned out, or is it still too early to tell? Avdeevka is the most fortified town on the planet, billions were spent from 2014 building reinforced concrete fortifications and positions there, and something like 15000 soldiers are there. A full on assault is suicide, only way to take the town is to cut it off from supplies and starve the garrison out. Since 2014 its been untouchable right next to Donetsk Some maps from yesterday: A pro-Russian source: https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1712226050921447485And a very cautious source that turns out to be right most of the time and posted at the same time. You can view his whole map of Ukraine here https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.15489121035866,37.91556114209466&z=9:https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1712239369321394179Whats sure for both of them is that the Russians took the extremely important slag heap to the north of Avdeevka yesterday that looks over the entire town. They moved a massive amount of heavy equipment to the area and are bombing everything that moves inside the town, though the artillery systems farther from the town can work on them. That said they are aiming to pincer the supply routes to the city by going for the villages of Sjeverne and Berdychi. Very heavy fighting with attacks and counterattacks and lost equipment on both sides, Informational suppression going on and obviously a lot of stuffing and propaganda from all sides. Avdeevka was created to be lynchpin fortress and taking it will be a slow and very bloody process even if the Russians manage to cut off the supply routes within the next week. Just want to comment that this was a good post. Please do more of this type of posting. I will encourage you to expand on why you think the post was good? It started with history of the situation which seems to contain a bit of hyperbole but is still reasonable. There was an explanation of the current status as understood, which also seems accurate from what I know. Then finally a prediction on what can happen, which is a possible discussion topic. In this case that taking the city will be hard and requires cutting of the supply roads, not certain to happen. It was not a Russian or Ukrainian propaganda piece or focused on a specific small detail. Detail discussions are also good and interesting but are hard to find proper sources for in the middle of a war. They are also hard to find discussions on since the topic for engagement is narrow.
Thank you.
I disagree with "a bit of hyperbole but is still reasonable". The situation was poorly (or at least with a heavy bias) explained.
The sources are in fact by and large Russian propaganda. One of them slightly less so, but none of them live up to the level of scrutiny Zeo himself applies to other sources used in this thread.
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Jesus christ your reading comprehension is bad.
I didn't say "Ukraine isn't winning fast enough" wasn't being said.
I was saying the context surrounding when it was being said and why is completely different from the way you are using it now.
People that argue like this have no capacity for self reflection obviously
A rare moment of self reflection from zeo.
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You're not the sharpest tool in the box, are you? ;-) It's amusing that you can't figure out why you're using it wrong.
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I will explain it to You zeo because this is getting ridiculous.
When people say Ukraine isn't winning fast enough, as a smirk - it makes sense because Ukraine is a smaller country attacked by a much more powerful neighbor who is/was constantly blabbing about how powerful it is and how it could take on the entire NATO. The fact that this smaller country is now winning, just not fast enough, is funny.
When You say this in regard to Russia it doesn't make any sense. Everybody was expecting Russia to roll over Ukraine. They themselves claimed it will take three days. But here we are, close to two years after the start of the war, and Ukraine is still fighting and even making pushes and strikes deep inside Russian held territory. Saying Russia isn't winning fast enough isn't funny in this context. It is just a sad testament of Russia's inability to finish this war in any other way than going into a war of attrition and hoping west support dries out. Its pathetic really.
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In addition to the above, from (before) the very start of the Ukrainian counter offensive it was said that if Ukraine is going to win, it's going to win by attrition, and it is not realistic to expect major breakthroughs early on. The comparison to both WW1 and WW2 was made, where things at various points in time were reduced to a stalemate for months if not years before one side suddenly didn't have the manpower or material to keep up and the line starting breaking all at once. Most people here were expecting a Ukrainian win in the counter offensive to look similar.
In contrast, the whole Russian narrative, from the start, was that this was going to be a quick 3 day military operation, the superior Russian military would crush the unprepared and smaller Ukrainian military and this whole thing would be over very quickly.
It's pretty clear why "Ukraine isn't winning fast enough" makes sense, because the expected outcome was never a fast win. The opposite isn't true.
And that's not even getting into the idea that nobody credible thinks Russia is winning at all.
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Most importantly, in the grand scheme of things, Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing. Assuming Russia doesn't manage to sabotage the Western support on a political level, Ukraine is bound to get progressively stronger while Russia is getting progressively weaker. Saying that Russia "is not winning fast enough" makes no sense because they are not winning in any sense of the word. On the contrary, they suffered several strategic defeats.
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On October 13 2023 20:37 Manit0u wrote:At the same time, Ukraine has breached defences south of Bakhmut. Show nested quote +On October 13 2023 14:54 zeo wrote:
Anyway, thermite/magnesium rain over Avdeevka last night:
Celebrating war crimes? Show nested quote +
White phosphorus weapons are not banned, but their use in civilian areas is considered a war crime.
White Phosphorus is always banned when used to inflict direct damage. It's allowance is only as a smoke screen or for signaling purposes, and then, as you say, not in densely populated areas
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United States44203 Posts
The correct usage is when someone presents a defeat as a victory by introducing a time limit that doesn’t really exist.
For example:
“Russia has successfully defeated Ukraine in the battle for Robotyne”
then a week later
“Russia has successfully defeated by Ukraine by losing the literal battle for Robotyne but slowly which makes them the victors”
On August 19 2023 16:19 zeo wrote:
Rabotyne is still there (Russian held) On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:
Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village On August 28 2023 20:16 KwarK wrote:
“They’re not winning fast enough”
The person has moved the goalposts so that they can claim that they’re winning due to how slowly they’re losing.
Unfortunately for you Zeo you won’t get to use it much. For you to use it you’ll need two things to happen. First, Russia will need to successfully take an objective. And secondly, you’ll need some idiot to discount that victory by saying there was a time limit where none exists. But when that happens you can be ready with “Russia isn’t winning fast enough”.
“They’re not winning fast enough” actually has some brothers too. Their names are “I didn’t want X anyway”, “I wasn’t trying”, and “look how hard they must try in order to defeat me”.
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On October 14 2023 17:39 maybenexttime wrote:
Most importantly, in the grand scheme of things, Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing. Assuming Russia doesn't manage to sabotage the Western support on a political level, Ukraine is bound to get progressively stronger while Russia is getting progressively weaker. Saying that Russia "is not winning fast enough" makes no sense because they are not winning in any sense of the word. On the contrary, they suffered several strategic defeats.
The main risk is in drones. If they turn out to be even more important than we think Russia might win the war. As far as I know nobody is scaling up to send 100 000 drones to Ukraine yearly.
The second main thing to consider is that Europe has mostly depleted their ready stocks and aren't scaling production of vehicles quickly. Leading to Ukraine just having a small edge in replacement vehicles, making the attrition to win the war taking a long time due to allowed intensity of the war. I think Perun had a nice simple graph in one of his recent graphs where an increase in Russian loss rate leads to a massively shorter attrition time since there is less chance to produce/restore replacements.
I agree Russia is going to lose on the current trajectory. It doesn't mean it is the only possible outcome and how long it takes is also a big question.
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https://x.com/United24media/status/1713121247616246055?s=20
Unconfirmed. Could be a temporary blip. Could be either unsustaineble by Ukraine or Russia could scale their production.
But if it's true and a continuation of the general trend probably one of the single biggest thing that can happen in the war.
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Finland964 Posts
On October 15 2023 02:47 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:https://x.com/United24media/status/1713121247616246055?s=20Unconfirmed. Could be a temporary blip. Could be either unsustaineble by Ukraine or Russia could scale their production. But if it's true and a continuation of the general trend probably one of the single biggest thing that can happen in the war.
A while back Finnish media was reporting that Ukraine claimed to have destroyed massive numbers of Russian artillery recently. As in roughly the amount of artillery that Finland officially fields, and Finland has one of the largest artillery forces in Europe, even when not accounting for capita.
Might be a combination of destroyed batteries, a lack of shells, and just not being able to bring artillery to bear.
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They are facing a multitude of issues. They are losing massive numbers of artillery, their barrels are getting used up faster than they can replace them, they have issues procuring more shells (the North Korean ones are of terrible quality, with high dud rate and short range) and getting the ammo to the front lines due to poor logistics. They're also bad at counter-battery fire, which their propagandists constantly complain about, and the artillery systems they're replacing their losses with are of progressively worse quality, older Soviet stock with shorter range than NATO systems.
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More drone footage of a failed assault on Avdiivka.
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According to the reports yesterday Russia has lost over 1k troops, 25 tanks and 50 IFVs. One of the highest losses since a long time.
To put it into context: If we take total vehicle losses and divide by total days of the war, then the average daily is 479 soldiers per day, 8.25 tanks per day, 15.6 Armored combat vehicles per day and 11.4 Artillery per day. This means the 597th day is more than twice as bloody for the Russians than average, with nearly 6x average tank losses, 1.66x average ACV losses and 4 times the average artillery losses.
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It seems avdivka holds for now, wonder if they will try more human waves, or if they're still doing it
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EPT
