Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 603

On October 05 2023 20:24 Manit0u wrote:
On the front there are some news. Apparently Ukrainians now control all of the oil rigs in the Black Sea. It turns out Russians were using them as forward bases for helicopters and had a lot of rockets and fuel stored there (which Ukrainians promptly took for themselves). In addition there were extra radars installed there so now the Russians have lost their forward bases in the vicinity of Odessa as well as their early warning systems. This makes it much harder for their air units and fleet to operate in the region as the rigs were equipped with extra air defense systems by Ukrainians.

All of this also allowed the Ukrainians to conduct a very bold operation recently, where they launched missiles and drones at Crimea to engage their air defense and prevent air unit deployment. Under this cover they actually landed on Crimea with a small force and engaged Russians on the ground. They had to retreat when Russians sent reinforcements but managed to do so with few losses.

Looks like they're maybe testing the waters for a larger scale landing?

On October 05 2023 21:03 Excludos wrote:


I also watched today's video, and I'm a bit confused on the timeline of all this. Is this the same operation that happened 2-3 weeks ago? Or did they land again?

I'm also a bit confused as to how Russia are just letting this happen, considering Ukraine doesn't have a Navy.. I guess the kamikaze drone-boats really are as big a threat as Russia claims they aren't after all

On October 05 2023 21:02 zeo wrote:
Today marks four full months since the NATO trained and equiped forces of the Ukrainian army started their long planned and much talked about 'counter-offensive' against the Russian military in the southern sectors of the front.

It would be two days before any pictures ans video started comming out, but what Kiev and their NATO planners envisioned as a 4 day stroll to Crimea turned into a catastrophic rout of the much hyped gamechangers - the Leopard tank and Bradley failing completely in the initial attack and creating the first of many vehicle graveyards.

Over the next four months an innumerable flow of video and photographic evidance of the complete destruction of the attacking brigades came in almost daily. Massive losses for minimal gains turned into massive losses with minute gains and now we have no gains in the last few weeks - with massive losses.

This army that was built up over nine months, that was hampered by the desperate attempts of Kiev to hold onto Bahmut at any cost. Squandered.

On the other side the Russians are in a phase of the war where they are having relatively few losses, not being on the attack anymore. Just sitting back and taking out the waves as they come. The NGO Mediazona funded by the BBC keeps tabs of the numbers of confirmed dead from open source:

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

Obviously the Bahmut campaign with convicts and felons storming well fortified positions has a much higher death rate than they have now. Wagner, it is obvious now - crippled the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian army with their victory at Bahmut, but that victory came at a cost. The heavier price was payed by Kievs forces there.

Lets not forget the large scale assult that started immediately after the last Ukrainian troops fled Bahmut and has been going on the whole time. Since the 20th of May the nationalist, right wing and similar battalions have been throwing themselves at the city with Kleshevka falling only last week, again, taking massive losses since May 20th.

With the rains comming soon it remains to be seen just how much this fiasco has weakened the defencive capabilities of Kievs army and in what shape they will be able to take on the Russian army which is building up forces for another imminent offencive. Only time will tell, in any case I called this offencive a disaster four months ago but even then I didnt think it would be this much of a shit show. The rains will force the Ukrainians to abandon the positions they gave tens of thousands of lives to take.

Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

On October 05 2023 21:02 zeo wrote:
Today marks four full months since the NATO trained and equiped forces of the Ukrainian army started their long planned and much talked about 'counter-offensive' against the Russian military in the southern sectors of the front.

It would be two days before any pictures ans video started comming out, but what Kiev and their NATO planners envisioned as a 4 day stroll to Crimea turned into a catastrophic rout of the much hyped gamechangers - the Leopard tank and Bradley failing completely in the initial attack and creating the first of many vehicle graveyards.

Over the next four months an innumerable flow of video and photographic evidance of the complete destruction of the attacking brigades came in almost daily. Massive losses for minimal gains turned into massive losses with minute gains and now we have no gains in the last few weeks - with massive losses.

This army that was built up over nine months, that was hampered by the desperate attempts of Kiev to hold onto Bahmut at any cost. Squandered.

On the other side the Russians are in a phase of the war where they are having relatively few losses, not being on the attack anymore. Just sitting back and taking out the waves as they come. The NGO Mediazona funded by the BBC keeps tabs of the numbers of confirmed dead from open source:

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

Obviously the Bahmut campaign with convicts and felons storming well fortified positions has a much higher death rate than they have now. Wagner, it is obvious now - crippled the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian army with their victory at Bahmut, but that victory came at a cost. The heavier price was payed by Kievs forces there.

Lets not forget the large scale assult that started immediately after the last Ukrainian troops fled Bahmut and has been going on the whole time. Since the 20th of May the nationalist, right wing and similar battalions have been throwing themselves at the city with Kleshevka falling only last week, again, taking massive losses since May 20th.

With the rains comming soon it remains to be seen just how much this fiasco has weakened the defencive capabilities of Kievs army and in what shape they will be able to take on the Russian army which is building up forces for another imminent offencive. Only time will tell, in any case I called this offencive a disaster four months ago but even then I didnt think it would be this much of a shit show. The rains will force the Ukrainians to abandon the positions they gave tens of thousands of lives to take.

On October 05 2023 21:02 zeo wrote:
Today marks four full months since the NATO trained and equiped forces of the Ukrainian army started their long planned and much talked about 'counter-offensive' against the Russian military in the southern sectors of the front.

It would be two days before any pictures ans video started comming out, but what Kiev and their NATO planners envisioned as a 4 day stroll to Crimea turned into a catastrophic rout of the much hyped gamechangers - the Leopard tank and Bradley failing completely in the initial attack and creating the first of many vehicle graveyards.

Over the next four months an innumerable flow of video and photographic evidance of the complete destruction of the attacking brigades came in almost daily. Massive losses for minimal gains turned into massive losses with minute gains and now we have no gains in the last few weeks - with massive losses.

This army that was built up over nine months, that was hampered by the desperate attempts of Kiev to hold onto Bahmut at any cost. Squandered.

On the other side the Russians are in a phase of the war where they are having relatively few losses, not being on the attack anymore. Just sitting back and taking out the waves as they come. The NGO Mediazona funded by the BBC keeps tabs of the numbers of confirmed dead from open source:

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

Obviously the Bahmut campaign with convicts and felons storming well fortified positions has a much higher death rate than they have now. Wagner, it is obvious now - crippled the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian army with their victory at Bahmut, but that victory came at a cost. The heavier price was payed by Kievs forces there.

Lets not forget the large scale assult that started immediately after the last Ukrainian troops fled Bahmut and has been going on the whole time. Since the 20th of May the nationalist, right wing and similar battalions have been throwing themselves at the city with Kleshevka falling only last week, again, taking massive losses since May 20th.

With the rains comming soon it remains to be seen just how much this fiasco has weakened the defencive capabilities of Kievs army and in what shape they will be able to take on the Russian army which is building up forces for another imminent offencive. Only time will tell, in any case I called this offencive a disaster four months ago but even then I didnt think it would be this much of a shit show. The rains will force the Ukrainians to abandon the positions they gave tens of thousands of lives to take.

On October 05 2023 21:11 Manit0u wrote:


2-3 weeks ago they weren't landing on Crimea. They were using small boats to approach and take over the first oil rig and ran into Russian aviation which ensued a 12h game of cat & mouse.

And I think Russia no longer has a navy presence around this area. Drone and missile strikes on Sevastopol forced them to withdraw their ships.

On October 05 2023 22:01 2Pacalypse- wrote:

What is your source on Ukrainian losses data? I was trying to find reliable source for losses on both sides (still waiting for Ardias' post!), and pretty much all sources I've seen put Russians losses above Ukranian losses (though would be nice to see the breakdown of losses by week/month).

Of course, you're not really using data per se, but using words like "massive" and "few" to describe Ukranian and Russian losses respectively. Can you please put some numbers behind those words and share your source as well? Thank you.

On October 05 2023 22:13 Excludos wrote:


Not sure if this is what you're looking for? https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

If you want specific time periods, you're going to have to contribute to the repository. But they already include a bunch of various charts, breakdowns, and maps, that are updated daily with data from Oryx (Which, for those uninitiated, draws their numbers from empirical evidence. You can go on their site and click on each and every one of the equipment to get pictures of the destroyed tank or plane in question)

On October 05 2023 22:24 2Pacalypse- wrote:

That's tracking material loss data. I was more interested in the manpower losses now. Though I'm sure there's correlation between the two.

Also, according to zeo, Oryx is highly biased source that is inflating Russian losses, so I would be interested in his alternative sources as well; just so we have more data to compare with each other.

On October 05 2023 23:05 JimmiC wrote:
It also likely depends if you are counting costs or units.

On October 05 2023 22:59 ZeroByte13 wrote:
To be honest I'd be suprised if the difference is actually at 3:1.
I'd expect 1.5:1 maybe or so. But I'm not sure if we'll ever know true numbers from either side.

On October 05 2023 22:01 2Pacalypse- wrote:

What is your source on Ukrainian losses data? I was trying to find reliable source for losses on both sides (still waiting for Ardias' post!), and pretty much all sources I've seen put Russians losses above Ukranian losses (though would be nice to see the breakdown of losses by week/month).

Of course, you're not really using data per se, but using words like "massive" and "few" to describe Ukranian and Russian losses respectively. Can you please put some numbers behind those words and share your source as well? Thank you.

Ukraine gives no official toll of its war dead - the Ukrainian armed forces have reiterated that their war casualty numbers are a state secret - but Margo knows the losses are huge.

The figures remain classified. But US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong. The UN has recorded 9,177 civilian deaths to date.

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As recently as April, leaked estimates from the Pentagon put Ukrainian deaths at the much lower figure of 17,500. The alleged jump to more than 70,000 can be partly explained by the counter-offensive in the south. In its early days it was especially hard on Ukrainian infantry - "worse than Bakhmut" one brigade commander who is fighting there told me. The city in Donetsk fell to Russia in May in one of the bloodiest battles of the war so far.

On October 06 2023 00:44 JimmiC wrote:
@zeo I was thinking about the Russian position and wouldn’t it be true from their position that they have basically none of Ukraine and that Ukraine controls a fairly significant portion of Russia? Due to the annexations.

Now the Ukrainians consider it the opposite but shouldn’t it be a big blow to the Russian ego that the small country of Ukraine was able to take and hold such a large piece of Russia? And if anything by are very slowly growing it?