NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On October 04 2023 05:34 KwarK wrote: In fairness he shouldn’t be posting that kind of sensationalist YouTube nonsense at face value, no matter where it comes from. If there’s a credible point being made by the YouTuber then he can find a credible source for it.
Sometimes, just like regular journalism, the article/youtube video itself is the source. Of course you should be sceptical, but dismissing something purely because it's a Youtube video isn't constructive either. A lot of these channels have a network that is genuinely insane. If you've ever watched Task & Purpose (Which covers a significant amount of topics within arms trade, military and wars in general), you'll quickly come to understand that they have significant insider information in a lot of their stories, and for the ones they don't they are doing some damn good investigative journalism.
That's not to say one should take every video at face value of course, that would be equally stupid. The channel's reputation is what matters. If they have a long history of sharing nonsense and propaganda, clearly one should find their news elsewhere
On October 04 2023 04:50 Sermokala wrote: I don't know what you're missing but what are you confused about? Someone doing something successful keeps doing successful thing? There are pro-russian youtubers if thats the brand of cringe you're looking for. This isn't something new its like wondering why fox news is the way it is for 24 hours a day.
Look, doing something and being succsesful is not the point. The point is look at the following headlines:
The FED is printing FAKE MONEY - ALL the GOLD is gone USA COLLAPSE IMMINENT!!!
The VACCINES are planting MICRO ROBOTS into our BLOOD - SCIENTISTS EXPOSE EVERYTHING!!!
China COLLAPSED 3 years ago but they are keeping it a SECRET - people there have resorted to CANABALISM
RUSSIAN RUBLE COLLAPSE! End of the ECONOMY and WAR in three days MAX!
CRYPTO is on the BRINK of comming back to RECORD highs! BITCOIN at 200k by DECEMBER!!!
----------------- Posting crap like this day in day out gets you a lot of views unfortunately. You can call yourself whatever kind of expert you want, there is no way you can make 20min videos that are well thought out and researched EVERY SINGLE DAY.
Who cares if the content is aimed at a pro-Russian or pro-NATO audiance crap is crap, these people have no skin in the game they just say the things that get them the most views over the longest period of time in their niche.
There are content creators that spend time researching and creating longform well thoughtout videos on the subject but they are the minority here and are swamped by these daily content stooges repeating the same things day in day out because they found out it was good for analytics.
A byproduct of the mental atrophy of todays society where people are 'informed' on subjects through tiktok because they cant be fucked to think for themselves or spend more than 10min thinking something over so that they can form their own opinion.
Edit: @manitou And im not dismissing everything based on one copetuber. The second video you posted is from someone that has a week or more between uploads. You know, actually spends times researching, planning out the video, script, editing. Even if its biased, someone put some effort into thinking about something, forming their opinion and sharing that opinion on a subject. Even if i dont agree with them they add much much more to a discussion than an edrama reaction content idiot.
On October 03 2023 22:51 Manit0u wrote: Some interesting things are happening with Russian economy:
It seems that the stop-gap measures they applied last year are now rearing their ugly head. What worked in the short term is now hurting them more and more in the long term. Rubble losing 66% value just this year is pretty harsh and their balance of trade is down almost 80% compared to last year.
And also an interesting take on the war from a more grand strategy perspective:
Explaining why Ukrainian offensive might seem slow and without much progress.
I watched the economy video and I thought it was very good and accurate, don't know why the grown ups in this thread complain.
You have to separate the headline from the content, usualy the title of the video is clickbait but the video itself can actually be really accurate and good and have nothing to do with the over the top title (this is the oldest trick in the book btw, you always want to have a title that attract attention, 100+ year old trick).
Just watched it all the way through as well. There is nothing wrong with it. There's absolutely zero sensationalism. All the does is explain what is happening with the ruble and why. I don't think anyone who complained about it has actually seen it (Or as is the case with a certain individual, feels personally attacked by anything that doesn't paint Russia in a glowing light).
The amount of videos a channel posts also has nothing to do with their quality. These channels aren't run solo. Even if it's the same guy presenting them, he has a team of people helping in the background to produce each video. The titles aren't even clickbait (In the sense that they don't lie or exaggerate about the topic of the video), they just all have the typical "closeup of emotional facial expression" style that Mr.Beast popularized, because it absolutely works in terms of getting people to click on them.
On October 04 2023 18:26 Excludos wrote: Just watched it all the way through as well. There is nothing wrong with it. There's absolutely zero sensationalism. All the does is explain what is happening with the ruble and why. I don't think anyone who complained about it has actually seen it (Or as is the case with a certain individual, feels personally attacked by anything that doesn't paint Russia in a glowing light).
The amount of videos a channel posts also has nothing to do with their quality. These channels aren't run solo. Even if it's the same guy presenting them, he has a team of people helping in the background to produce each video. The titles aren't even clickbait (In the sense that they don't lie or exaggerate about the topic of the video), they just all have the typical "closeup of emotional facial expression" style that Mr.Beast popularized, because it absolutely works in terms of getting people to click on them.
Well we can see who the target audience is. These channels are not Alex Jones tier bombastics, but they prey on people that only listen to what they want to hear. Listen to any Ancient Atlantis/civilization video, QANON, 9/11 was an inside job, antvaxxer ect, you will hear a very calm and rational person speaking things that make sense to people that want to believe in these things. Sometimes even converting the non-believers, does this make them legitimate? Is their spam flood content moral?
Those are some more extreme examples on the scale. But think about all the 'im a history major' channels that had 10k views and now have 200-300k views only on their 'Russia sux' videos. They are incentivized to keep printing this content out and tell those new viewers what they want to hear. Not telling them what they want to hear = less viewers.
You dont see a problem with what he is saying because he is telling you what you want to hear in the way you want to hear it. Day in, day out. The same videos. The same talking points. Day in. Day out. Printing the same content, the same talking points only slightly different this time. Day in. Day out. Over and over again because its good for analytics.
You dont look back at his 400 videos on Russia to see if he was right about anything. Its just needs to sound right. Go to his videos and search by the term 'collapse' - hundreds of results, hundreds. What exactly has collapsed in all this time?
On October 04 2023 19:03 zeo wrote: You dont see a problem with what he is saying because he is telling you what you want to hear in the way you want to hear it
Are you seriously going to try to pretend that the ruble is doing a-ok? That it hasn't fallen dramatically over the last year, despite several stop-gap attempts, and that Russia has now banned export of fuel?
No? Then you are agreeing with the video. That is literally it. You can't just go around and shout how everything is just "confirming biases" from videos explaining objective truths. I'm getting pretty tired of the automatic dismissal of everything you don't consider shiny rainbows for the Russian empire as propaganda or fake. If you can't even accept an inch of criticism, how do you expect yourself to understand the broader scope? You are nose down into the dirt, refusing to look up, while simultaneously shouting at how everyone else can't see anything. It's getting incredibly old at this point
On October 04 2023 18:26 Excludos wrote: Just watched it all the way through as well. There is nothing wrong with it. There's absolutely zero sensationalism. All the does is explain what is happening with the ruble and why. I don't think anyone who complained about it has actually seen it (Or as is the case with a certain individual, feels personally attacked by anything that doesn't paint Russia in a glowing light).
The amount of videos a channel posts also has nothing to do with their quality. These channels aren't run solo. Even if it's the same guy presenting them, he has a team of people helping in the background to produce each video. The titles aren't even clickbait (In the sense that they don't lie or exaggerate about the topic of the video), they just all have the typical "closeup of emotional facial expression" style that Mr.Beast popularized, because it absolutely works in terms of getting people to click on them.
I watched just the beginning of the video, but even the first statement is dead wrong: "currency of exporters have to appreciate in time due to international demand for it". There is a number of reasons why this is generally not true. The first one - in order to estimate (de)accumulation of foreign currency in a country, one needs to look at the full balance of trade, which includes not only trade of commodities, but also movements in capital account (i.e. international trade of bonds, equities; direct investments and so on).
The second big reason - in the Bretton-Woods system we have USD as globally recognized international currency; basically, national currencies are (almost) not affected since all the trade is denominated in USD.
The third big reason - national currencies can be influenced by the governments to move in a favorable way. For example there is a very good article by Itskhoki and Mukhin (Exchange rate disconnect), describing some relations between economy openness and its currency exchange rate, and it also implies some limitations of such mechanism.
All of this results that in practice there are lots of big net exporters with weak (undervalued) curency (China, Brasil, Russia, etc), and lots of net importers with strong currency (USA, Western EU countries and so on), so the claim in the video dosn't hold, or have too many exceptions to base something on it. And of course, a false premise results in arbitrary conclusion.
In regards to rus. ruble exchange rate to USD - it has been ~76 right before the war, 120 at the historical high in March 2022; 51 at the lowest after the start of the war in July 2022, and ~100 today.
On October 04 2023 20:21 a_ch wrote: In regards to rus. ruble exchange rate to USD - it has been ~76 right before the war, 120 at the historical high in March 2022; 51 at the lowest after the start of the war in July 2022, and ~100 today.
So, since July last year the ruble has pretty much halved in value. And you have to keep in mind that Russia got $300B of its foreign exchange reserves frozen, which account for over half of their stash of USD.
Having ~$300B in reserves might seem like a lot but Russia has to use around ~$25B/month for imports. They can probably make up for it with their exports but the margins are getting lower and lower (~50% decrease in profit margins since last month).
On October 04 2023 20:21 a_ch wrote: In regards to rus. ruble exchange rate to USD - it has been ~76 right before the war, 120 at the historical high in March 2022; 51 at the lowest after the start of the war in July 2022, and ~100 today.
Seriously? You don't see a single pattern here that could signify the value of the ruble is on a downward trend?
Yes, it was chaotic in the early days of the war, but cherry picking any one chaotic day or week instead of looking at the long term trend is asinine in terms of debating economy
On October 04 2023 20:21 a_ch wrote: In regards to rus. ruble exchange rate to USD - it has been ~76 right before the war, 120 at the historical high in March 2022; 51 at the lowest after the start of the war in July 2022, and ~100 today.
Seriously? You don't see a single pattern here that could signify the value of the ruble is on a downward trend?
Yes, it was chaotic in the early days of the war, but cherry picking any one chaotic day or week instead of looking at the long term trend is asinine in terms of debating economy
-this is quite a general pattern in the behavior of exchange rates: long trends in one direction, followed by sharp reversals. The theory is, any financial asset price is a martingale, so noone can reliably earn money on speculative trading. As every theory in economics, there are some exceptions to it (like, exchange rates are slighty predictable in middle- and long term, but that still needs big money and is quite risky), but the idea is - if you know for sure that ruble will continue to depreciate, you can easily make bets and earn money on it - which would affect the rate immediately. So if the price/rate is what it is - means that the market today isn't that certain on its future.
On October 04 2023 20:21 a_ch wrote: In regards to rus. ruble exchange rate to USD - it has been ~76 right before the war, 120 at the historical high in March 2022; 51 at the lowest after the start of the war in July 2022, and ~100 today.
So, since July last year the ruble has pretty much halved in value. And you have to keep in mind that Russia got $300B of its foreign exchange reserves frozen, which account for over half of their stash of USD.
Having ~$300B in reserves might seem like a lot but Russia has to use around ~$25B/month for imports. They can probably make up for it with their exports but the margins are getting lower and lower (~50% decrease in profit margins since last month).
-yes, the rate has dropped two times since July. The thing is, I really don't know how good the economy is here right now. At the start of the war I talked with lots of prominent economists, and all of them predicted a full collapse in 0.5-1 year term. Today it looks like they have been wrong, so for now I'm very skeptic to any of that stuff.
On October 04 2023 18:26 Excludos wrote: Just watched it all the way through as well. There is nothing wrong with it. There's absolutely zero sensationalism. All the does is explain what is happening with the ruble and why. I don't think anyone who complained about it has actually seen it (Or as is the case with a certain individual, feels personally attacked by anything that doesn't paint Russia in a glowing light).
The amount of videos a channel posts also has nothing to do with their quality. These channels aren't run solo. Even if it's the same guy presenting them, he has a team of people helping in the background to produce each video. The titles aren't even clickbait (In the sense that they don't lie or exaggerate about the topic of the video), they just all have the typical "closeup of emotional facial expression" style that Mr.Beast popularized, because it absolutely works in terms of getting people to click on them.
I watched just the beginning of the video, but even the first statement is dead wrong: "currency of exporters have to appreciate in time due to international demand for it". There is a number of reasons why this is generally not true. The first one - in order to estimate (de)accumulation of foreign currency in a country, one needs to look at the full balance of trade, which includes not only trade of commodities, but also movements in capital account (i.e. international trade of bonds, equities; direct investments and so on).
The second big reason - in the Bretton-Woods system we have USD as globally recognized international currency; basically, national currencies are (almost) not affected since all the trade is denominated in USD.
The third big reason - national currencies can be influenced by the governments to move in a favorable way. For example there is a very good article by Itskhoki and Mukhin (Exchange rate disconnect), describing some relations between economy openness and its currency exchange rate, and it also implies some limitations of such mechanism.
All of this results that in practice there are lots of big net exporters with weak (undervalued) curency (China, Brasil, Russia, etc), and lots of net importers with strong currency (USA, Western EU countries and so on), so the claim in the video dosn't hold, or have too many exceptions to base something on it. And of course, a false premise results in arbitrary conclusion.
In regards to rus. ruble exchange rate to USD - it has been ~76 right before the war, 120 at the historical high in March 2022; 51 at the lowest after the start of the war in July 2022, and ~100 today.
The bretton woods system collapsed five decades ago. That much trade is done in dollars is not relevant. The dollar has an intermediary function so lower exports still cause a lower demand for roubles. You're right that the value of currency does not always tell much since governments can influence it directly and indirectly but that still has costs.
Whatever deals have to be made to keep the US government hobbling along aren't looking good for Ukraine. For those not following US news, the House lost its majority speaker and it's unlikely his replacement will be more encouraging of aid for Ukraine.
Best case scenario is funding being precariously delayed, worst case they already got their last major aid package from the US and Europe can't pick up the slack.
Ousting of US House speaker darkens outlook for Ukraine aid as funds dry up
The removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the US Congress has cast a dark cloud over the already troubled process of Washington’s military and financial aid for Ukraine, as its counteroffensive against Russia grinds on with little change to the frontlines.
Without a Speaker, the House is unable to pass legislation, and it may be a week or more before a successor is elected – throwing America’s military backing for Kyiv into doubt.
The vote to remove McCarthy follows a weekend deal in which funding for the government was extended for 45 days – but in which no provision was made for fresh aid to Ukraine. That left the Biden administration’s $24 billion request for fresh military aid, submitted to Congress in the summer, in limbo. It also left the coffers dangerously low.
US President Joe Biden said at the weekend that he expected McCarthy “to keep his commitment to secure the passage and support needed to help Ukraine as they defend themselves against aggression and brutality.” McCarthy has now lost his role and has ruled out running for Speaker again.
Money and weapons run low
Many analysts estimate that Ukraine’s current “burn rate” of equipment, munitions and maintenance in the conflict with Russia is about $2.5 billion a month, maybe a little higher. Much of the funding for that spending comes from Washington.
Last week, the Pentagon’s Chief Financial Officer, Michael McCord, warned Congressional leaders that money for Ukraine was running low. In a letter subsequently released by House Democrats, McCord said that the Pentagon had about $5.4 billion left in what’s known as presidential drawdown authority, which allows the rapid dispatch of weapons from existing stocks. That’s essentially about two months’ money.
McCord also warned that of the roughly $26 billion that Congress had authorized to replace weapons and equipment that had been sent to Ukraine, only $1.6 billion remains.
One pipeline, the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), is already empty. McCord told Congressional leaders that “a lack of USAI funding now will delay contracting actions that could negatively impact the department’s ability to purchase essential additional 155 mm artillery and critical munitions essential to the success of Ukraine’s armed forces.”
“Without additional funding now, we would have to delay or curtail assistance to meet Ukraine’s urgent requirements, including for air defense and ammunition that are critical and urgent now as Russia prepares to conduct a winter offensive and continues its bombardment of Ukrainian cities,” he wrote.
For me it would be unbelivable if the US didn't support a direct war against fascism, what's even the point of being the greatest millitary power in the world if you can't even stop dictators, but who knows
He lost his speakership by going against the pro Russian elements in his party. There is still overwhelming support for Ukrainian aid in the government and next year is an election year. Being submissive to the Russians is a bad look to the us electorate. The only likely path for the next speaker is through a compromise with the pro Ukrainian elements.
Remember folks this is America the MIC has the money and will lobby for it good and hard.
Trying to figure out whether a country's economy is 'collapsing' or not based on currency exchange rates is an exercise in futility. Swedish Krona is down ~40% vs the dollar in the last 2 years, I don't think Swedish economy is staring into the abyss, though. Over the last 10 years, USD to Turkish Lira went from 1:2 to 1:25+, but people still live there just fine and their government is still functioning. To claim that Russia is literally done because Ruble went from 1:60 to 1:100 or whatever is rather silly.
Turkey’s economy is somewhat imploding. Not a great counterpoint. But aside from the bad example it’s a fair point. The interest rates would be a higher concern to me.
On October 05 2023 11:51 Salazarz wrote: Trying to figure out whether a country's economy is 'collapsing' or not based on currency exchange rates is an exercise in futility. Swedish Krona is down ~40% vs the dollar in the last 2 years, I don't think Swedish economy is staring into the abyss, though. Over the last 10 years, USD to Turkish Lira went from 1:2 to 1:25+, but people still live there just fine and their government is still functioning. To claim that Russia is literally done because Ruble went from 1:60 to 1:100 or whatever is rather silly.
The difference is that Russia is uniquly effected by its exchange rate due to how important exports are to its economy that are either directly denominated in dollars or in relation to dollars due to its curancy being peged to the dollar. With the Majority of global debt in Dollars or Euros, neither of which are friendly to the ruble atm, this is a massive effect on its carefully balanced exports and imports.
granted I do not understand how they are finding out this number as russia is cut off from SWIFT but its undeniably that it is impacting an already incredibly disupted economy that will only suffer more and more as time goes on.
EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/FGrXI3o.png)
