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On August 27 2023 22:52 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 22:39 Excludos wrote:On August 27 2023 20:24 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 27 2023 17:33 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 19:53 Magic Powers wrote:People need to read this. Personally, I suspect that the consistent framing of the war as a stalemate is top-down orchestrated information warfare by anti-Ukrainian agents. Sowing seeds of doubt. The goal is very obviously to undermine support for Ukraine in the short and long run. The claims have nothing to do with the reality on the ground. The reality is that Ukrainian forces are currently pummeling the Russian defenses. While the process is slow, Russian command is 100% freaking out about the prospect of a Southern breakthrough. It's practically a repeat of the Kherson offensive, which for many months didn't seem to be moving at all, then began rolling, and then suddenly the Russian defenses collapsed. The Kharkiv offensive was similar in that Ukrainian forces chipped away at the defenses for months before Russian troops had to suddenly withdraw and surrender the entire oblast. Ukraine is still absolutely on pace for another collapse of the Russian defenses. We've been seeing many indicators of a potential breakthrough, possibly even before the end of 2023. That isn't to say this war is going smoothly in Ukraine's favor. But anyone comparing this to a stalemate has absolutely no idea how war actually works in real life. First of all, there was no chipping at Kharkov defences, that part of the front was quiet for months, hence Russian command moved combat forces to other areas, leaving thin green line of LDPR reservists there, and neglected the information about gathering Ukrainian forces there, which later led to collapse of the front. In Kherson the main issue forcing a retreat was logistics hanging on two bridges being more and more damaged each day and potential destruction of the dam, which would cut off all Russian forces on the bridgehead. Neither of these conditions apply to current situation. Also some people who study how the war works in real life for a living tend to disagree with you: https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/russian-fortifications-present-an-old-problem-for-ukraine/ Ukraine definitely, without even the slightest of doubts, chipped away at the Russian defenses in and around Kharkiv before the Kharkiv offensive. The same is true for Kherson. While the following images from 2022 are not accurate (because back then the inaccuracies were far more numerous), we can still see some general trends. The first image shows the territorial changes between April 6 (after Russia withdrew from the North) and May 15. While there were many contested areas, it's very clear that Ukraine was seeing much success in and around the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile Russia focused its efforts on the region near Sievierodonetsk. ![[image loading]](https://abload.de/img/1-april6bismai152022-r2i16.png) The second image shows May 15 until Sept 16 (until about one week before the grand Kharkiv offensive). During those four months Ukraine was carving out more space in the Kharkiv region. Russian command had failed to respect the threat of a collapse of the Kharkiv oblast, presumably because it looked like Russia was contesting the region from its own borders in the North. Those smaller advances later proved to be unsubstantial. Ukraine was making a lot of progress from various directions, most notably reclaiming most of the recently lost territory South of Izium and also pushing further to the East of Kharkiv city. A lot of reports were coming out about Ukraine's progress in the Izium region. With hindsight we know that the whole oblast - and not just Izium - was in the process of being encircled while Russia was distracted near Sievierodonetsk. When you look at both maps, it's fairly clear that Ukraine focused most of its offensive efforts on three regions: Kharkiv, Kherson and later also Zaporizhzhia. These fronts were not "quiet" in any capacity. Russia simply did not react appropriately to the various threats. Ukraine was very busy in all three regions. Russian command should've respected this fact, but they did not. Additionally, the fact that the Dnipro made the region in the North of Kherson too dangerous to hold on to - perhaps because here Russia, and not only Ukraine, had claimed some territory in the previous months - was also underestimated by Russian command. Perhaps they were thinking too much in purely territorial changes and not enough strategically. ![[image loading]](https://abload.de/img/2-mai15bissept162022-kpiij.png) These maps are super interesting. Where do you find them? From the Youtube channel balkan mapper. They've been reporting daily on the territorial changes (and other information) since the first day of the invasion. https://www.youtube.com/c/balkanmaping/videosEvery few months I take screenshots and upload edited versions so people can see the changes.
Ah, ok. Damn. Was hoping for a dynamic map I could open intermittently and check myself
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On August 27 2023 22:56 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 22:52 Magic Powers wrote:On August 27 2023 22:39 Excludos wrote:On August 27 2023 20:24 Magic Powers wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 27 2023 17:33 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 19:53 Magic Powers wrote:People need to read this. Personally, I suspect that the consistent framing of the war as a stalemate is top-down orchestrated information warfare by anti-Ukrainian agents. Sowing seeds of doubt. The goal is very obviously to undermine support for Ukraine in the short and long run. The claims have nothing to do with the reality on the ground. The reality is that Ukrainian forces are currently pummeling the Russian defenses. While the process is slow, Russian command is 100% freaking out about the prospect of a Southern breakthrough. It's practically a repeat of the Kherson offensive, which for many months didn't seem to be moving at all, then began rolling, and then suddenly the Russian defenses collapsed. The Kharkiv offensive was similar in that Ukrainian forces chipped away at the defenses for months before Russian troops had to suddenly withdraw and surrender the entire oblast. Ukraine is still absolutely on pace for another collapse of the Russian defenses. We've been seeing many indicators of a potential breakthrough, possibly even before the end of 2023. That isn't to say this war is going smoothly in Ukraine's favor. But anyone comparing this to a stalemate has absolutely no idea how war actually works in real life. First of all, there was no chipping at Kharkov defences, that part of the front was quiet for months, hence Russian command moved combat forces to other areas, leaving thin green line of LDPR reservists there, and neglected the information about gathering Ukrainian forces there, which later led to collapse of the front. In Kherson the main issue forcing a retreat was logistics hanging on two bridges being more and more damaged each day and potential destruction of the dam, which would cut off all Russian forces on the bridgehead. Neither of these conditions apply to current situation. Also some people who study how the war works in real life for a living tend to disagree with you: https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/russian-fortifications-present-an-old-problem-for-ukraine/ Ukraine definitely, without even the slightest of doubts, chipped away at the Russian defenses in and around Kharkiv before the Kharkiv offensive. The same is true for Kherson. While the following images from 2022 are not accurate (because back then the inaccuracies were far more numerous), we can still see some general trends. The first image shows the territorial changes between April 6 (after Russia withdrew from the North) and May 15. While there were many contested areas, it's very clear that Ukraine was seeing much success in and around the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile Russia focused its efforts on the region near Sievierodonetsk. The second image shows May 15 until Sept 16 (until about one week before the grand Kharkiv offensive). During those four months Ukraine was carving out more space in the Kharkiv region. Russian command had failed to respect the threat of a collapse of the Kharkiv oblast, presumably because it looked like Russia was contesting the region from its own borders in the North. Those smaller advances later proved to be unsubstantial. Ukraine was making a lot of progress from various directions, most notably reclaiming most of the recently lost territory South of Izium and also pushing further to the East of Kharkiv city. A lot of reports were coming out about Ukraine's progress in the Izium region. With hindsight we know that the whole oblast - and not just Izium - was in the process of being encircled while Russia was distracted near Sievierodonetsk. When you look at both maps, it's fairly clear that Ukraine focused most of its offensive efforts on three regions: Kharkiv, Kherson and later also Zaporizhzhia. These fronts were not "quiet" in any capacity. Russia simply did not react appropriately to the various threats. Ukraine was very busy in all three regions. Russian command should've respected this fact, but they did not. Additionally, the fact that the Dnipro made the region in the North of Kherson too dangerous to hold on to - perhaps because here Russia, and not only Ukraine, had claimed some territory in the previous months - was also underestimated by Russian command. Perhaps they were thinking too much in purely territorial changes and not enough strategically. These maps are super interesting. Where do you find them? From the Youtube channel balkan mapper. They've been reporting daily on the territorial changes (and other information) since the first day of the invasion. https://www.youtube.com/c/balkanmaping/videosEvery few months I take screenshots and upload edited versions so people can see the changes. Ah, ok. Damn. Was hoping for a dynamic map I could open intermittently and check myself
Kind of this: https://liveuamap.com/ (there is time in top right on PC)
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On August 27 2023 01:29 StasisField wrote:
It's possible they've already breached some key defensive lines on the southern front
Seems like that is the case. Basically it appears Russia will have to decide which area to defend but not both. That and how long can the 76th can sustain... anything. As they have been bled white in the Kreminna region for well over a year, and what will they do having to defend.
The Kremlin is rushing reinforcements to southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It’s a desperate bid to prevent a major Ukrainian breakthrough along a critical axis.
The reinforcements are from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, which is “arguably Russia’s best division and is relatively fresh,” according to Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. The division most recently went on the attack early this year around Kreminna, where the Russians still are sustaining a limited offensive.
That the Russians are redeploying the 76th GAAD speaks to the growing momentum of the Ukrainians’ 2023 counteroffensive, which kicked off with simultaneous armored assaults along several axes in southern and eastern Ukraine.
In just the last couple of weeks, the Ukrainian army and independent air-assault force have liberated Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia, while the Ukrainian marine corps has ejected Russian troops from Urozhaine, 60 miles east of Robotyne in the Mokri Yaly River Valley.
The twin Ukrainian victories bring Kyiv’s forces a few miles closer to their two main objectives in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainians aim to free the cities of Melitopol and Mariupol from their Russian occupiers. The Russians aim to maintain their hold on the cities in order to safeguard overland supply routes into Russian-occupied Crimea.
The outcome could come down to which side makes best use of its reserves. To achieve its breakthrough around Robotyne, the Ukrainian southern command deployed one of its few in-reserve formations: the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. Now the Kremlin is deploying one of its own few reserve formations.
A Ukrainian reserve officer who tweets under the handle @Tatarigami_UA was one of the first to note the 76th GAAD’s redeployment from the Kreminna sector in northeastern Ukraine to the Robotyne-Tokmak-Melitopol axis.
“According to Russian military doctrine, at least on paper, 76th Division is a part of their strategic reserves, underscoring the seriousness of the move,” @Tatarigami_UA wrote on Saturday.
The reason the officer stressed that the 76th GAAD is a reserve unit on paper is that the division, which oversees three infantry regiments each with a couple of thousand troops, has been on the front line for much of Russia’s 19-month wider war on Ukraine.
The division fought around Kyiv in the wider war’s early weeks and reportedly participated in the massacre of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha in the spring of 2022. After retreating from north-central Ukraine, the division redeployed to the east with its T-90 and T-72 tanks and BMP-2 and BMD fighting vehicles.
Six months later in August 2022, the 76th GAAD temporarily shifted battalions to southern Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast in a frantic effort to halt Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive.
The 76th GAAD couldn’t prevent the Ukrainians from liberating much of southern Ukraine north of the Dnipro River last fall. But it did make the Ukrainians pay for every mile they advanced. In late October, 76th Division gunners devastated a column from the Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade outside Kostromka, 20 miles north of the Dnipro.
In committing the 76th GAAD to halt a Ukrainian attack in southern Ukraine, for the second time in a year, the Kremlin is going all in. “On one hand, this strengthens Russian operational capacities,” @Tatarigami_UA wrote. “On the other, their failure will critically impair ... combat-ready reserves for rapid deployment.”
Any future effort to reinforce Russian defenses in one sector could come at the expense of Russian defenses in another sector, according to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. “A lack of sizeable operational reserves would force the Russian command to conduct further lateral redeployments and make decisions about what sectors of the front to prioritize.”
The implication is obvious. If the Ukrainians can maintain their momentum in the south, they might force the Russians to make a hard choice: to hold in the south or hold in the east. They probably wouldn’t be able to do both.
Source
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Sounds pretty promising for Ukraine.
ISW is more reserved in their outlook though:
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27-2023-0
Still going to be a slow trek through, but the interconnected nature of the trenches might make slow progress through them possible if they aren't too heavily laden with anti-personnel mines.
A Ukrainian soldier, likely operating in the Robotyne area, offered further tactical details on the prepared Russian defensive positions that Ukrainian forces have penetrated and on those that are currently ahead of them. The Ukrainian soldier stated that, in the Robotyne area, there is a system of interconnected Russian trenches, dugouts, and limited underground tunnels that allow Russian forces to facilitate the movement of personnel, weaponry, and ammunition from different tactical positions along the front.[4] The Ukrainian soldier stated that anti-tank ditches and minefields stretch across fields in front of and in between these interconnected layers of defensive positions.[5] The soldier added that all “unexcavated” areas around these prepared defensive positions are heavily mined and that Russian forces have narrowly designated unmined paths in their defensive layers to allow Russian forces to reach firing positions.[6] The Ukrainian soldier did not indicate whether the Ukrainian forces had passed through the densest minefields but suggested that Ukrainian forces still had to demine areas at a gradual pace before advancing further.[7] ISW previously assessed that areas near the next series of prepared Russian defensive positions may be less heavily mined to give Russian forces operating north of these positions the ability to retreat, although the Ukrainian soldier’s reporting suggests that this may not be the case in the areas where Ukrainian forces are currently approaching the next Russian defensive layer.[8] Ukrainian forces are now within striking distance of the next series of Russian defensive positions, which appears to be comprised of a relatively more contiguous array of anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles with Russian fighting positions behind these obstacles similar to the previous layer of Russian defenses.[9] The highly interconnected systems of trenches and dugouts that the Ukrainian soldier described is the result of months of Russian preparation and it is unclear if Russian forces extended that system throughout subsequent series of defensive positions further south.
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The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato."
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On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato."
Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬
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On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato." Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬
It is the Ukrainian strategy, to be weak and strong at the same time. Same with Bahmut.
They were very weak as they lost Bahmut and hundred thousand untrained soldiers but they were strong also because they held against Wagner and they mighty Russian army, even though the Russian army was not really trying to take Bahmut, it just happened.
Did I forget something?
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But this counteroffensive realy failed (unless something dramatic will happen). Robotyne is no vital importance for russian defence ok Tokhmak, and it took almost 3 months to take it. On the other hand the russian winter offensive also failed, as Bakhmut is on the brink of being contested and is useless as an forward outpost to breach the ukrainian front.
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As others have said, looking at territory is not the best lense for this conflict.
The core question is materiel. How much stuff each side destroyed, and more importantly, how much they still have left.
If Ukraine lost 50km all along the front, but destroyed every single russian artillery piece in return, that would be a huge victory.
Once the front start moving, the important stuff has already happened, and one side has run out of something vital.
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The alternative is to freeze the conflict since russian offensive capability is gone since a while back.
The offensive has to be continued until all land is taken back, give russia nothing, take from them everything.
They have 20% of ukraine now, but they had like 10% of ukraine before this "special operation" even started?
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United States44288 Posts
On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato." Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬
“They’re not winning fast enough”
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On August 28 2023 20:16 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato." Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬 “They’re not winning fast enough”
"That boxer is clearly winning by hitting that other boxers gloved fist with his face for the last 4 rounds, only a matter of time before the gloves wear out"
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On August 28 2023 19:56 sertas wrote:
The alternative is to freeze the conflict since russian offensive capability is gone since a while back.
The offensive has to be continued until all land is taken back, give russia nothing, take from them everything.
They have 20% of ukraine now, but they had like 10% of ukraine before this "special operation" even started?
I'd look at the overall trajectory over time. The early days of the invasion were heavily in favor of Russia. Since then, the overall direction has been more favorable for Ukraine. Regression to the mean would indicate that Ukraine is going to reclaim more territory. How much more exactly? God knows.
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On August 28 2023 20:30 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2023 20:16 KwarK wrote:On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato." Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬 “They’re not winning fast enough” "That boxer is clearly winning by hitting that other boxers gloved fist with his face for the last 4 rounds, only a matter of time before the gloves wear out"
Check oryx then about equipment losses or is that "western propaganda"?
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On August 28 2023 20:30 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2023 20:16 KwarK wrote:On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato." Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬 “They’re not winning fast enough” "That boxer is clearly winning by hitting that other boxers gloved fist with his face for the last 4 rounds, only a matter of time before the gloves wear out"
Even your analogies doesn't make sense, seeing as Russia are taking way higher losses both men and equipment wise
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On June 26 2023 19:45 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2023 08:34 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Meanwhile back on the left bank of the Dnipro river....
This is like that butterfly meme. "Is this significant?" If you are a poorly trained mobik being harassed by Ukrainian special forces untill they send qualified reinforcements then yes. If that is not you then no. Wake me up when they take Oleshky, and even then they have to push 30km on foot to establish a bridgehead. It's like Bakmuth. When (if) they take Krasna Hora (and probably Soledar) to protect the flanks the significant things can potentially happen. But regardless. If the offensive is eventually both succesfull and efficent Ukraine has probably won. If it's either succesfull or efficent the war probably continues (with an edge for Ukraine). If it's neither succesfull or efficent we might see negotiatons with Russia. So we just have to wait and see.
Just going to quote myself from June.
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On August 28 2023 22:01 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2023 20:30 zeo wrote:On August 28 2023 20:16 KwarK wrote:On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato." Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬 “They’re not winning fast enough” "That boxer is clearly winning by hitting that other boxers gloved fist with his face for the last 4 rounds, only a matter of time before the gloves wear out" Even your analogies doesn't make sense, seeing as Russia are taking way higher losses both men and equipment wise
Source: trust me bro, a think tank funded by the British foriegn office dropped a pin on Google maps and said 10000000 Russians died there
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United States44288 Posts
Yeah, they’re probably giving up their fortifications, letting Ukraine’s artillery get into range of strategic vulnerabilities, and rushing reinforcements to the line precisely because of how well it’s going for them.
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On August 28 2023 23:34 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2023 22:01 Excludos wrote:On August 28 2023 20:30 zeo wrote:On August 28 2023 20:16 KwarK wrote:On August 28 2023 19:42 zeo wrote:On August 28 2023 18:30 sertas wrote:
The "failed" counter offensive has taken back Robotyne officialy now (let's see if it stays that way)
"Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar made the announcement on Monday morning, adding troops were advancing on towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvato." Three months, hundreds of vehicles and thousands of lives for a village with four streets and three dozen houses in a screening zone 1km from where the lines were months ago.... the next village in the screening zone has 50 houses, and thats with their flanks exposed 😬 “They’re not winning fast enough” "That boxer is clearly winning by hitting that other boxers gloved fist with his face for the last 4 rounds, only a matter of time before the gloves wear out" Even your analogies doesn't make sense, seeing as Russia are taking way higher losses both men and equipment wise Source: trust me bro, a think tank funded by the British foriegn office dropped a pin on Google maps and said 10000000 Russians died there
The source is literally every source in existence that isn't Russia's own fabrication. But I understand you'd much rather live in your own bubble while whining about how everyone else is brainwashed.
I love people who claims that anything that doesn't fit their narrative is "trust me bro", including third party open source intelligence, and then immediately turn around to listen to Russia who have have literally been caught lying about every little minute detail about this war. Yeah, let's trust those guys!
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EPT
