EPTI wonder how Iran will react to that.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/09/28/irgc-deputy-commander-killed-in-israeli-strikes-on-beirut-report
Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine - Page 333
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PremoBeats
660 Posts
I wonder how Iran will react to that. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/09/28/irgc-deputy-commander-killed-in-israeli-strikes-on-beirut-report | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6324 Posts
https://x.com/IDF/status/1839962896970756231?t=_0wONQkp-IwJmr5-sqqrfg&s=19 | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12583 Posts
On September 28 2024 22:32 RvB wrote: Many things that seemed unlikely still happened since October 7. https://x.com/IDF/status/1839962896970756231?t=_0wONQkp-IwJmr5-sqqrfg&s=19 You're right | ||
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PremoBeats
660 Posts
On September 28 2024 22:32 RvB wrote: Many things that seemed unlikely still happened since October 7. https://x.com/IDF/status/1839962896970756231?t=_0wONQkp-IwJmr5-sqqrfg&s=19 This is not all... Rida probably low key be snitchin' out to the IDF Just saw this pic on 9gag after having seen your post, lol. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/VTFRQxy.jpg) | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
Iran is so deeply infiltrated I think it’s basically checkmate. Hopefully they give up their cringey little jihad crusade and realize they have nothing to gain from keeping this up. Whether people think Iran is justified or not, it’s very clear Iran is never recovering their cowardly proxy bullshit | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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riotjune
United States3394 Posts
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
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pmp10
3401 Posts
On September 28 2024 21:45 RvB wrote: Hezbollah should cut their losses and sue for peace. They've lost all of their high command in a week. Israel is much better prepared for this conflict than anyone expected. They have been largely decapitated. Chances are there is no-one left to order retreat. | ||
KwarK
United States44387 Posts
The execution has been very impressive though. Compromise their cell phones, force them to use pagers. Compromise their pagers and trigger panic, they default to radios. Compromise the radios and they're forced to meet in person. Kill them all at once. Mossad reminding the world how they got their reputation. It does somewhat make you wonder how they were so blindsided by Oct 7 though. Obviously Hezbollah aren't Hamas, Hezbollah are despised by the Lebanese so intelligence on them is easier to come by, but you wonder how Mossad can simultaneously be so competent and miss Oct 7. Maybe in 50 years we'll learn that Bibi knew something was going planned, it's certainly within his character. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12583 Posts
On September 29 2024 00:35 KwarK wrote: Yeah, although things were quieter before Oct 7 Israel would have been foolish to assume that they would remain that way as Hezbollah was an opposing military at war. The intelligence side of this operation was likely more than a year in the making. Hezbollah's attacks on Oct 8 resumed the hot war but Iran was never going to not use them. The execution has been very impressive though. Compromise their cell phones, force them to use pagers. Compromise their pagers and trigger panic, they default to radios. Compromise the radios and they're forced to meet in person. Kill them all at once. Mossad reminding the world how they got their reputation. It does somewhat make you wonder how they were so blindsided by Oct 7 though. Obviously Hezbollah aren't Hamas, Hezbollah are despised by the Lebanese so intelligence on them is easier to come by, but you wonder how Mossad can simultaneously be so competent and miss Oct 7. Maybe in 50 years we'll learn that Bibi knew something was going planned, it's certainly within his character. I see what you're saying but it's probably something in the middle. There are reports about the plan being known, but likely they didn't just let it happen, they underestimated the barbarians and thought it wouldn't cause this much damage. With a smaller attack you can fight back just as hard and it's fine, but with such a large attack your legitimacy as the protector of Israelis is in play. | ||
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KwarK
United States44387 Posts
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RvB
Netherlands6324 Posts
On September 29 2024 00:35 KwarK wrote: Yeah, although things were quieter before Oct 7 Israel would have been foolish to assume that they would remain that way as Hezbollah was an opposing military at war. The intelligence side of this operation was likely more than a year in the making. Hezbollah's attacks on Oct 8 resumed the hot war but Iran was never going to not use them. The execution has been very impressive though. Compromise their cell phones, force them to use pagers. Compromise their pagers and trigger panic, they default to radios. Compromise the radios and they're forced to meet in person. Kill them all at once. Mossad reminding the world how they got their reputation. It does somewhat make you wonder how they were so blindsided by Oct 7 though. Obviously Hezbollah aren't Hamas, Hezbollah are despised by the Lebanese so intelligence on them is easier to come by, but you wonder how Mossad can simultaneously be so competent and miss Oct 7. Maybe in 50 years we'll learn that Bibi knew something was going planned, it's certainly within his character. Shin bet is mostly responsible for intelligence in the Palestinian territories not Mossad. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
They don’t need this conflict. They need to abandon the sunk cost fallacy and just pivot to normalization. | ||
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pmp10
3401 Posts
Iran has been using negotiations as an explanation for no retaliation after killing of Haniyeh. Now that all talks broke down, they no longer get that excuse. And if they actually do retaliate it might just get Trump elected. Long-term they might even find it preferable to sacrifice Hezbollah. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On September 29 2024 04:57 pmp10 wrote: Come to think of it this escalation is a sign of genius from Israel. Iran has been using negotiations as an explanation for no retaliation after killing of Haniyeh. Now that all talks broke down, they no longer get that excuse. And if they actually do retaliate it might just get Trump elected. Long-term they might even find it preferable to sacrifice Hezbollah. Israel killed Haniyeh during the peak of their security level in Tehran. The only real concern Israel had was the fact that Hezbollah had the capability to create a MAD situation. If Israel succeeds in their blockade, it means Iran loses their MAD capability. I’d say they already lost it, but I’m being incredibly charitable for the sake of discussion. With the blockade already in progress, it looks like we are close to Israel securing their entire border. Once Syria is Israel’s closest thing to a neighboring threat, they will gain an incredible amount of capability to focus their attention on wrapping up loose ends like Houthis | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5885 Posts
On September 29 2024 00:35 KwarK wrote: Yeah, although things were quieter before Oct 7 Israel would have been foolish to assume that they would remain that way as Hezbollah was an opposing military at war. The intelligence side of this operation was likely more than a year in the making. Hezbollah's attacks on Oct 8 resumed the hot war but Iran was never going to not use them. The execution has been very impressive though. Compromise their cell phones, force them to use pagers. Compromise their pagers and trigger panic, they default to radios. Compromise the radios and they're forced to meet in person. Kill them all at once. Mossad reminding the world how they got their reputation. It does somewhat make you wonder how they were so blindsided by Oct 7 though. Obviously Hezbollah aren't Hamas, Hezbollah are despised by the Lebanese so intelligence on them is easier to come by, but you wonder how Mossad can simultaneously be so competent and miss Oct 7. Maybe in 50 years we'll learn that Bibi knew something was going planned, it's certainly within his character. If I'm not mistaken, Lebanon is in the purview of Mossad, whereas West Bank and Gaza are in the jurisdiction of Shin Bet. | ||
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KwarK
United States44387 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
"In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext This Youtuber explains in more detail why higher estimates are so important and why the direct death toll shouldn't be the measure to go by when judging the scale of death since October 7. The standard that's being applied during this conflict is far too strict to give us a true understanding of how many people have already been killed (and those who will later be dying from the conflict also as an indirect consequence). Other conflicts have not faced such a high level of scrutiny, and the current reported death toll appears to be much lower than the true death toll most likely is. | ||
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Husyelt
United States839 Posts
On September 28 2024 14:33 PremoBeats wrote: Interesting take, as Hezbollah has been sending rockets at Israel almost daily for nearly a year now. Whether or not you believe Hezbollah's intention or promise that "we will stop firing once you have a ceasefire in Gaza", Israel has also been doing the same to Hezbollah for the same duration, and from what I've read, far more damage output. Im certainly not a tankie or a far left progressive like Emma Vigeland who says "Houthis and Hezbollah are heroes and the resistance", but nothing justifies a 300-1 kill ratio for civilian to terrorist. or 50-1 in terms of confirmed kills in Gaza. "A Waco a day, the IDF way" | ||
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