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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1457

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

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Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
May 14 2019 20:30 GMT
#29121
Your vote for president might be less important, but the legislature is how things change long term. I really wish people were as focused on sending good to congress as they are with the Presidency.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
May 14 2019 20:33 GMT
#29122
On May 15 2019 05:01 IyMoon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2019 04:53 Danglars wrote:
On May 15 2019 04:41 Sermokala wrote:
Something bigger then both those is trumps shift to the warlord khalifa haftar In lybia. Hes a capable general being trained by the USSR and the United states. But he doesn't have any democratic mandate and will probably be another Egyptian result of the Arab spring. Hes certainly has the support of the Egypt Saudi axis in the middle east.

I don’t think either “axis” is particularly good, but Egypt/SA looks to be better than Qatar/Turkey.


Do you mean better in a moral way or as a strategic ally way?

Either way can you list why you think that?


I think the Qatari ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and that organizations terrorism makes it marginally worse than SA’s version of exporting radicalism and Egypt’s authoritarianism and repression. I have to reiterate that both stand low in my moral estimation, generally, for a host of other reasons that would take too long to go over.

Strategically, the SA/Egypt axis is more stable in foreign policy and more inclined to get along with Israel and oppose Iran. I think both those inclinations serve the US’s long term strategic interests in the region.

I’m not particularly well informed on the specific leaders each axis is backing. I’ve only read two or three news articles on the subject.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
semantics
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
10040 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-14 20:46:18
May 14 2019 20:45 GMT
#29123
On May 15 2019 05:22 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2019 05:02 semantics wrote:
On May 15 2019 02:50 JimmiC wrote:
The great news about the election is that there should be high turnouts. It seems like both parties are mobilized. I can't imagine right now a scenario (that involves Trump) where anyone stays home thinking their vote won't matter or that their guy has it won.

I live in California my vote doesn't matter atleast for president. Certainly matters more as you get more local but for president with the electorial college my vote doesn't mean much.


It does for the moral outrage you get to have when the popular vote is 15 million different!

I suppose if the popular vote is so far removed from the electoral college it can finally be removed and my vote will always count for president.

Also maybe campaigns will finally visit more states outside of the token rally instead of the 10-15 swing states they usually operate under.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18869 Posts
May 14 2019 20:53 GMT
#29124
Keep an eye on the Big Three automotive companies, word around here is that Ford is on the cusp of announcing large layoffs in response to the tariff increases.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
May 14 2019 21:30 GMT
#29125
This thing is going to completely fuck up the board game industry as well, since all of their parts for games are made in China. And most of the company, like Fantasy Flight, are not big. The will have no choice but to jack up prices or fire people. It seems small, but there are tons of small industries like that in the US that are going to take it in the teeth.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
semantics
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
10040 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-14 21:58:31
May 14 2019 21:56 GMT
#29126
Picking and choosing winners in business. Too bad our economy's is so heavily integrated with China that this hurts more US companies than it helps.
IyMoon
Profile Joined April 2016
United States1249 Posts
May 14 2019 22:26 GMT
#29127
On May 15 2019 06:56 semantics wrote:
Picking and choosing winners in business. Too bad our economy's is so heavily integrated with China that this hurts more US companies than it helps.


I remember when Obama got so much shit for 'Picking winners and losers'
Something witty
NewSunshine
Profile Joined July 2011
United States5938 Posts
May 14 2019 22:59 GMT
#29128
So while we're "collecting tariffs", whatever that's supposed to mean, long-standing American companies like Ford and GM take it in the teeth. Trump is an unremitting moron. Are these the policy goals we were looking for?
"If you find yourself feeling lost, take pride in the accuracy of your feelings." - Night Vale
iamthedave
Profile Joined February 2011
England2814 Posts
May 14 2019 23:18 GMT
#29129
On May 15 2019 02:10 Plansix wrote:
In general I have not noticed until now when a lot of folks I know who are into board games were like “Get what games you want now, because the price is going to go up by like 20%.” And that seems to be the narrative across the board game community online as well.


How come? Are they all made in China?
I'm not bad at Starcraft; I just think winning's rude.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
May 15 2019 00:00 GMT
#29130
Th war drums continue as senator dumb ass Cotton goes on camera and says we could “beat Iran easy.” I was waiting for him to say we will be greeted at liberators. It’s like the Republicans are loom back at the Bush administration and think “the Iraq war got him re-elected. We should do that again.”

I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
semantics
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
10040 Posts
May 15 2019 00:05 GMT
#29131
On May 15 2019 08:18 iamthedave wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2019 02:10 Plansix wrote:
In general I have not noticed until now when a lot of folks I know who are into board games were like “Get what games you want now, because the price is going to go up by like 20%.” And that seems to be the narrative across the board game community online as well.


How come? Are they all made in China?

Parts and materials. Modern economy is raw, semi finished and finished goods
Taelshin
Profile Joined September 2010
Canada420 Posts
May 15 2019 00:20 GMT
#29132
As a conservative poster here, I surely hope that you guys do not go to war with Iran, or get involved on the ground in Venezuela. I'm not sure how the other lads feel here, but If either of those things happen that would cause me to heavily re-think my position on Trump. Unfortunately I fear that no matter who was president both these options would be real concerns.

Can we get a fucking decade without starting a new "war" ?
"We didnt listen"
Ben...
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3485 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-15 00:23:58
May 15 2019 00:20 GMT
#29133
On May 15 2019 09:00 Plansix wrote:
Th war drums continue as senator dumb ass Cotton goes on camera and says we could “beat Iran easy.” I was waiting for him to say we will be greeted at liberators. It’s like the Republicans are loom back at the Bush administration and think “the Iraq war got him re-elected. We should do that again.”

They're sending so many mixed signals on it. It's almost like nobody has any idea what is going on. It does appear that Pompeo and Shanahan are pushing a narrative that Iran has become increasingly hostile, while the person actually in charge of the coalition forces in Iraq and Syria said there so far is no increase in threat level from Iran. The Pentagon seems to be disputing this, but under this administration they've been doing what seems like a lot of this kind of stuff. Remember that strange episode last year where they suddenly had the need to bomb several targets in Syria, and all the news folks thought it implied the US was going to go to war in Syria? This reminds me of that. That ended up being nothing, and was buried in the news within a couple days.

Of course, Trump outright denied the 120,000 troop plan today and said there was no plan to attack Iran.

So really, there's no way to actually know what their plan is because they don't even know what their plan is.
"Cliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide" -Tastosis
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
May 15 2019 00:26 GMT
#29134
Republicans should be first in line for the draft for any war with Iran. They chose war, we chose diplomacy. It's a very clear party divide.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24342 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-15 00:57:43
May 15 2019 00:31 GMT
#29135
On May 15 2019 09:00 Plansix wrote:
Th war drums continue as senator dumb ass Cotton goes on camera and says we could “beat Iran easy.” I was waiting for him to say we will be greeted at liberators. It’s like the Republicans are loom back at the Bush administration and think “the Iraq war got him re-elected. We should do that again.”

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/firinglineshow/status/1128393270458048512


That comes on the heels of Senator Rubio reminding folks that military intervention in Venezuela is "always" an option because of "national security", "drug cartels", Russia" and of course "Marxist terrorists". He goes on to say Guaido needs it, because despite several western nations recognizing Guaido as interim president of Venezuela, the issue is far less settled for residents of Venezuela.

Rubio goes on to say that Guaido urgently needed outside help and "has no instruments of formal power,"

Senator Marco Rubio said U.S. military action in Venezuela was "always" an option, citing the unstable presence of drug cartels, Marxist terrorist organizations and "hundreds" of Russian military advisers in the South American nation.

The Florida Republican, who is a member of both the Senate's Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees, said Juan Guaidó, who was leading the efforts to oust President Nicolás Maduro, needed help in Venezuela against an international network of terrorists and drug cartels that have thrown their support behind the socialist regime. Rubio told Breitbart News Tuesday that U.S. military intervention was "always there" as a possibility because of Russia's own military presence in Venezuela at the invitation of Maduro.

In January, Maduro's leadership was declared illegitimate by the country's National Assembly, which named Guaidó president. But the move created a power vacuum as foreign countries, including Russia and the U.S., quickly propped up opposing sides. Rubio said Guaidó urgently needed outside help and "has no instruments of formal power," including no security forces, no internet and no access to news media.

"That option [military intervention] is always there simply because the United States has a right to defend its national security, and there are national security interests assigned to this,” Rubio told Breitbart News in an interview this week. “As an example, you have the presence of Russian military advisers on the ground…and not 10 people, you’re talking hundreds…you have [the] potential of a permanent Russian naval presence.”


It doesn't stop there though, Rubio goes on to tell the reporters at Breitbart that Iran and Hezbollah are supporting Marxist terrorists from Columbia

Rubio said that in addition to Russia's growing strength in the region, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah were providing passports and support for Colombian-based Marxist terrorist groups to roam freely in and around Venezuela.

“You have the likes of Hezbollah and Iran, and government officials who are more than willing—for the right price, but it’s not very high—to sell official but falsified travel documents, passports, so that terrorists can move around freely in the region,” he noted. “You have the open support of drug cartels who aren’t just tolerated, but cooperate and work alongside the regime…there’s a migratory crisis triggered by this regime that is destabilizing our strongest anti-drug partner in the region in Colombia.”


www.newsweek.com

The war drums are beating indeed and we went from Mad Dog being the voice of reason to Trump's aggression to Trump being the dove to Bolton/Pompeo/CIA hawks.

One concern this raises is the appeal Rubio is making there doesn't just tempt hawks on the right but has been adopted and defended by members of both parties. What military conflict would look like in Korea, Venezuela, and now Iran have all been in the news since Trump took office and most people are just hoping he keeps bluffing and it doesn't cause catastrophe.

Worth keeping in mind the Dem 2016 campaign was in no small part that Trump would definitely cause a catastrophe and couldn't be trusted not to just screw it all up.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
semantics
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
10040 Posts
May 15 2019 01:11 GMT
#29136
On May 15 2019 09:26 Doodsmack wrote:
Republicans should be first in line for the draft for any war with Iran. They chose war, we chose diplomacy. It's a very clear party divide.

I can't remember but was the reneg of the Iran deal just a Trump thing or a GOP thing during their primaries...
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 15 2019 01:20 GMT
#29137
--- Nuked ---
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
9064 Posts
May 15 2019 01:31 GMT
#29138
Semantics, I think it was a GOP thing. They claimed Obama acted without authority to make the Iran deal and that if they got power back, they would 187 it as soon as possible. They didn't have anything to replace it but just walked away from it. As far as I've read and it hasn't been particularly front page since, is that Iran was keeping honest with the deal and all the inspectors sent affirmed it as well.

I'm just glad I'm out of the military. Gen Mattis, had he declared that Iran or Venezuela needed liberating, would have been able to rally every soldier to fight. Now that he's gone, I expect a lot of senior officials to kinda push back on it. They don't see the justification. There isn't any.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-15 01:37:30
May 15 2019 01:34 GMT
#29139
On May 15 2019 10:11 semantics wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2019 09:26 Doodsmack wrote:
Republicans should be first in line for the draft for any war with Iran. They chose war, we chose diplomacy. It's a very clear party divide.

I can't remember but was the reneg of the Iran deal just a Trump thing or a GOP thing during their primaries...

Obama made the deal, so of course it was bad and must be destroyed. All Republicans ran on either backing out or attacking the deal. Talking about bombing Iran has been a big talking point for Republicans and hawkish Democrats forever now. It’s a joke in Iran, if the US threatened to bomb them today or not. There is a section of congress with both democrats and Republicans that are very happy with the status quo with Iran and the deal Obama work out under cut that.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4448 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-15 01:50:54
May 15 2019 01:43 GMT
#29140
On May 15 2019 06:30 Plansix wrote:
This thing is going to completely fuck up the board game industry as well, since all of their parts for games are made in China. And most of the company, like Fantasy Flight, are not big. The will have no choice but to jack up prices or fire people. It seems small, but there are tons of small industries like that in the US that are going to take it in the teeth.

Honestly i doubt it will have much impact.
Companies will just move production to Thailand or Vietnam if the tariffs are too steep.Williams-Sonoma just did this, as well as increase US production slightly https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/williams-sonoma-ceo-says-it-shifted-operations-ahead-of-tariff-hikes.html

China can retaliate by devaluing their currency to nullify any tariffs.And we’re back to square one.

The change to ultra low sulphur fuel for container ships on 1/2020 may have a bigger impact since the price for low sulphur fuel is 55% more per tonne :
https://www.maritime-executive.com/blog/twelve-months-to-d-day-is-the-industry-ready-for-the-sulfur-cap
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
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