EPTThe topic I was trying to discuss was employment falling amongst the UK born population and rising among the immigrant population, particularly from the EU.
UK Politics Mega-thread - Page 279
| Forum Index > General Forum |
In order to ensure that this thread meets TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we ask that everyone please adhere to this mod note. Posts containing only Tweets or articles adds nothing to the discussions. Therefore, when providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments will be actioned upon. All in all, please continue to enjoy posting in TL General and partake in discussions as much as you want! But please be respectful when posting or replying to someone. There is a clear difference between constructive criticism/discussion and just plain being rude and insulting. https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
The topic I was trying to discuss was employment falling amongst the UK born population and rising among the immigrant population, particularly from the EU. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18206 Posts
On February 16 2017 19:44 bardtown wrote: For crying out loud can you stop talking about me and talk about UK politics. I got one or two serious responses to my post yesterday before you're straight back to this degeneracy. Just constant shitposting about me and nothing contributed at all. The topic I was trying to discuss was employment falling amongst the UK born population and rising among the immigrant population, particularly from the EU. Oh, the "they stole our jobs" angle. The one that Mythical already disproved? Lets go over it again. Firstly https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/13/uk-labour-shortages-brexit-as-eu-worker-numbers-fall UK employers are increasingly struggling to fill jobs in shops, factories and hospitals according to a new report that suggests the shortfall may be down to fewer EU migrants seeking work in the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote. Company bosses are reporting labour and skills shortages throughout the food supply chain as well as in sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare and hospitality, according to the latest Labour Market Outlook from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) and The Adecco Group, which polls more than 1,000 employers. In other words: EU employees were filling positions in jobs that are hard to fill with UK nationals. But more importantly, from the news article you yourself linked (and thus I'd assume you read): http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38979582 "The unemployment rate is now at its lowest in over a decade, but wage growth remains subdued by historical standards," the ONS said in its commentary. Unemployment is at its lowest in 11 years. How is that "unemployment rising"?! Moreover: However, Mr Brettell added that the UK jobs market had remained resilient, despite warnings it would be hit by the Brexit vote. "The UK labour market continues to confound the doom-mongers with its resilience to the Brexit shock," he said. The employment rate edged higher to 74.6%, which was a record high, according to the ONS data. "Continued moderate growth in employment has led to a new high in the total employment rate, while the rate for women has reached 70% for the first time on record," said ONS senior statistician David Freeman. UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million people, the ONS found. You don't get to keep your cake and eat it too. Either the doomsayers are wrong, and the UK economy is robust to brexit, as evidenced by the high employment rate, OR the doomsayers are right, and Brexit is a disaster. Either way, you can't point to foreigners and claim they are causing Brits to be unemployed, because there is absolutely nothing indicating that. Quite the contrary, in fact. However, there's more: There was a small rise in the number of workers born outside the European Union, but a small drop in the number of workers born in other EU countries. Mr Freeman said those figures "should be treated with caution", however, because they were not adjusted for seasonal changes. So not only are there no jobs being stolen, but the jobs that are being filled by foreigners are increasingly being filled by non-EU foreigners (and don't tell me the EU is forcing you to take on non-EU immigrants, because that is also not true). Caveat: all of the numbers in the survey that the BBC report quotes are not statistically significant: unemployment dropping by 7,000 in a survey with an error margin of 80,000... lets not draw any conclusions  And now on to that magnificent graph you posted: Trolololol. Some people will believe everything they find on Twitter. Your graph has the WRONG CAPTION. That compares employment of different groups of foreigners... in other words, the exact little bit that I quoted above. Some herpaderp misread the graph and plastered it on Twitter with a false title. In other words: fake news. So sad. And that is the summary of all your bullshit on the previous page (which numerous people tried to point out). There is an amazingly positive survey by the Office for National Statistics, that shows: wages are up, jobs are up, and unemployment is down, yet you STILL try to spin it as if there's something bad happening and it's all foreigners' fault. You are wrong. | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
That random 'herpaderp' on twitter is a BBC economics correspondent, and we have already established what the graph shows. UK born employment is down, employment overall is up because foreign born employment is up significantly. This is not in any way, shape or form the fault of foreigners. If immigration is causing downward pressure on wages it is the fault of the immigration system, if it is a fault at all, which really depends on your political stance. We have also established that the vast majority of the newly employed people from outside the EU are British nationals. That either means individuals born abroad to British parents (for example in India, South Africa, Australia), spouses, children or people that have lived in the country for over 5 years and applied for citizenship. They are British by definition. Therefore, the vast majority of non-British employment in the last year came from the EU. It is a very fundamental principle that ample labour supply will result wage growth stagnation - employers have no need to increase wages. I'm tired of spending my entire time here addressing misinterpretations and straw men. Try responding to what I actually say for once, instead of what you wish I had said. | ||
|
RvB
Netherlands6263 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/MFWvHLp.png) www.ons.gov.uk If immigration is causing downward pressure on wages it is the fault of the immigration system, if it is a fault at all, which really depends on your political stance. This argument can only be made for low skilled employees though (as per your own source). The general trend of weak wage growth is better explained due to weak productivity growth. Quarterly growth of 0.4% is below the 1994 to 2007 average – which even taken together with recent stronger quarters, provides little sign of an end to the UK's “productivity puzzle”. The term productivity puzzle refers to the relative stagnation of labour productivity since the recent economic downturn. This is in contrast with patterns following previous UK economic downturns where productivity initially fell, but subsequently returned to the previous trend. www.ons.gov.uk | ||
|
MyTHicaL
France1070 Posts
On February 16 2017 07:07 Jockmcplop wrote: I have to agree. In fact, if you look at the hundred pages or so, you could assume that bardtown's only goal is to keep mythical talking him as much as possible. The main reason is because I think we provoke each other. He cites random optimistic facts that should, in his eyes, completely justify and promote the brilliant decision of Brexit. Furthermore most of what he says implies that Scotland should just follow the English, same for NI, and that the entire EU is destined to completely implode. And then of course that England is worth x100 more than it is in the world, and all these countries are lining up to trade with it- even though it doesn't produce anything. Whereas this is basically my point of view; https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/opinion/theresa-mays-empire-of-the-mind.html?referer Bottom line is, he is the only consistantly deluded poster in this forum who is a blind, let's run off a cliff, brexiter. I doubt anyone thinks the EU is perfect but the general attitude is that it's a positive union. I mean I don't go on the Telegraph or the Mail's website trawling through the comments sections over there arguing with their readers. He seems to think this one man war on the tl.net forum is going to convince people, or maybe he just simply enjoys it ;O. | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
This argument can only be made for low skilled employees though (as per your own source). The general trend of weak wage growth is better explained due to weak productivity growth. Not sure if that first point is true, strictly speaking. For example if you are a programmer in the UK and face level playing field competition from programmers across the entire EU, unless the demand for programmers is notably higher than their availability then employers will be able to secure staff at lower costs. This could be offset by other benefits of immigration to give programmers a net benefit, but that's not to say that they couldn't have yet higher net benefit if immigration controls were tweaked to make them more competitive. Of course this then makes their employers less competitive, so it would be a trade off. With regards to your spreadsheet, it certainly does look anomalous, although I would say Q4 2016 was the culprit as opposed to Q4 2015 which seems in line with the years before it. Pretty meagre increase across 2016 in general, but that's not too surprising when we are approaching full employment. Probably need to wait for Q1 2017 data to see if this relative underperformance of natives is a pattern or just a one off. Might just be the beginnings of fluctuations around full employment? I don't know. Productivity needs to be a priority, no doubt. I wouldn't know where to begin with this. Bring on the machines, I guess. | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
Seriously though, are there even any remainers who think this is a good idea? | ||
|
Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
On February 16 2017 05:39 bardtown wrote: Just give it time and watch all your predictions be proved wrong. Again. On February 16 2017 05:52 Dangermousecatdog wrote: What predictions would you be assuming would be proved wrong? What prediction of his has been proved wrong? And finally, why has none of your predictions come to pass? At this point, you aren't talking with, or even at him. You are just talking. On February 16 2017 06:24 bardtown wrote: My goal is to get him to stop talking to me, because he ignores everything I say anyway. Feel free to do the same, as you are equally guilty. So, basically, you just make up unfounded assertions and talk shit, because you want to have the last word in. OK, so why should anybody listen to anything you have to say? Why reduce yourself to a person of no standards? ______ On February 17 2017 19:07 bardtown wrote: Apparently Tony Blair is making a speech about how we were misinformed and lied to about such a big decision. It's about time he talked about Iraq! Oh, what, he's talking about Brexit? Well, that's good too. I am interested to know how all the economists predicted a 2016 recession and we ended up with 2%+ growth. I'm sure he'll explain. Seriously though, are there even any remainers who think this is a good idea? Case in point; what are you even talking about? Think what is a good idea? There is no idea in your post. You are just randomly stacking words together with no logical links. Bad. | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18206 Posts
On February 17 2017 23:55 bardtown wrote: Yawn. More of the same. Please stop blaming me for your lack of reading comprehension. Maybe if you consistently run into problems with people not understanding what you're saying, it is not "everybody else" who is at fault here... | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
| ||
|
LightSpectra
United States2055 Posts
| ||
|
Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9768 Posts
That said, he must be aware of his weaknesses by now and he must know he can't continue to lead until the next election. He'll lose, and in the meantime the tories have been allowed to get away with SO much horrible stuff. Their incompetence has gone completely unpunished. He should be spending every second of every day trying to find a successor who is better than he is, but I doubt that he's doing that, because he doesn't really seem to be able to think strategically at all. The answer to your question is 'I hope he leaves, and leaves a smart, charismatic socialist in his place'. | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
 .Edit: I mean I think Corbyn is ridiculous, but I'd still take him over the last two who stood against him. Labour doesn't seem to produce competent leaders any more. | ||
|
LightSpectra
United States2055 Posts
On February 18 2017 02:37 bardtown wrote: A smart socialist... might not quite be an oxymoron, but can you name one in British politics? Clement Attlee. Unless you meant a contemporary socialist that's actively in politics, in which case I cannot because I don't follow U.K. news that closely. Corbyn doesn't seem stupid, he's just made some very bad political gambles that's made Labour really weak. | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
On February 18 2017 02:49 LightSpectra wrote: Clement Attlee. Unless you meant a contemporary socialist that's actively in politics, in which case I cannot because I don't follow U.K. news that closely. Corbyn doesn't seem stupid, he's just made some very bad political gambles that's made Labour really weak. Yeah, I meant contemporary. I can think of a few historical ones (Orwell springs to mind, too) and a few outside of the UK, but not anyone capable of leading the UK right now. Corbyn is strategically so inept it's hard to take him seriously. Some people attribute this to honesty, and that worked for him for a while, but I don't buy that. He's a real lefty but he can't follow his heart without losing his party, so he makes the worst compromises over and over again. | ||
|
LightSpectra
United States2055 Posts
| ||
|
Melliflue
United Kingdom1389 Posts
On February 17 2017 19:07 bardtown wrote: Apparently Tony Blair is making a speech about how we were misinformed and lied to about such a big decision. It's about time he talked about Iraq! Oh, what, he's talking about Brexit? Well, that's good too. I am interested to know how all the economists predicted a 2016 recession and we ended up with 2%+ growth. I'm sure he'll explain. Seriously though, are there even any remainers who think this is a good idea? There are a few reasons for the predictions being wrong. 1) Short-term economic forecasts aren't that reliable. The main argument made by economists against Brexit was that it would have a negative impact on growth in the long-run. 2) The economists' pre-referendum forecasts assumed that Article 50 would be triggered immediately because David Cameron had said that in the result of a 'leave' vote he would trigger Article 50 immediately. 3) Domestic spending is up more than expected. In particular, consumption has grown quicker than income so savings are down. | ||
|
Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9768 Posts
| ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
On February 18 2017 03:28 Melliflue wrote: I think Andy Burnham could be a good leader for Labour. I know he lost against Corbyn in 2015 but Corbyn has done a lot since then to put people off him. Burnham has a better chance of winning an election than Corbyn but may be close enough ideologically to win over some Corbyn supporters within Labour. There are a few reasons for the predictions being wrong. 1) Short-term economic forecasts aren't that reliable. The main argument made by economists against Brexit was that it would have a negative impact on growth in the long-run. 2) The economists' pre-referendum forecasts assumed that Article 50 would be triggered immediately because David Cameron had said that in the result of a 'leave' vote he would trigger Article 50 immediately. 3) Domestic spending is up more than expected. In particular, consumption has grown quicker than income so savings are down. Yeah, I was being a little ironic because I'm sure he will completely ignore the fact that those predictions were wrong and will focus on Leave misinformation. Probably won't mention how the EU's chosen parliamentary representative for talks openly calls for complete federalisation and a European army, etc. As mentioned Burnham doesn't seem like an option. He's a shoe in for the mayorship in Manchester. On February 18 2017 03:12 LightSpectra wrote: John McDonnell seems competent. This McDonnell? This McDonnell? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12005431/John-McDonnell-signed-letter-calling-for-MI5-and-armed-police-to-be-disbanded.html I really don't think so. | ||
| ||
