EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 281
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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LightSpectra
United States3208 Posts
On February 25 2017 00:31 Acrofales wrote: So stop talking about it? There's no reason Labour has to harp on about the referendum, is there? I'm sure there's policies they are in favour of that have nothing to do with Europe? Strengthening the NHS for instance? Well, yes, I agree. Actually they are harping about the NHS, it's the first thing you see when you go to http://www.labour.org.uk/ . That's the best they can do in this situation. But the problem is how divisive Brexit has been. I think Corbyn's biggest mistake was calling a three-line whip on the Article 50 bill, and then not enforcing it. That's just begging the fierce Remainer bloc to stay at home on election days. Labour should've instead stuck to talking about how dumb the referendum was (it took a 2/3rds majority to enter but only a 51% majority to leave, Leavers are overwhelmingly older people that won't live to see the long-term effects, Farage himself said there should be a second referendum if Brexit lost by less than 5%, etc.), and then allowing his MPs to vote according to their conscience on Article 50. That way he could've built a broad coalition of all Remainers and moderate Leavers. Instead, all Labour has now are the Tories' sloppy seconds. | ||
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MyTHicaL
France1070 Posts
On February 25 2017 01:01 LightSpectra wrote: Well, yes, I agree. Actually they are harping about the NHS, it's the first thing you see when you go to http://www.labour.org.uk/ . That's the best they can do in this situation. But the problem is how divisive Brexit has been. I think Corbyn's biggest mistake was calling a three-line whip on the Article 50 bill, and then not enforcing it. That's just begging the fierce Remainer bloc to stay at home on election days. Labour should've instead stuck to talking about how dumb the referendum was (it took a 2/3rds majority to enter but only a 51% majority to leave, Leavers are overwhelmingly older people that won't live to see the long-term effects, Farage himself said there should be a second referendum if Brexit lost by less than 5%, etc.), and then allowing his MPs to vote according to their conscience on Article 50. That way he could've built a broad coalition of all Remainers and moderate Leavers. Instead, all Labour has now are the Tories' sloppy seconds. Yeah, it's not really that hard to understand that Labour voters were largely divided, and as such it seems pretty simple to allow your party to represent their constituancies at the very least. http://www.newstalk.com/Australias-priority-is-to-trade-with-the-EU--Australian-Foreign-Minister-on-the-opportunities-and-impact-of-Brexit How surprising, yet another country stating the obvious. Guess the imaginary close knit ties of the Common Wealth won't be bound any tighter. | ||
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Shield
Bulgaria4824 Posts
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
If you're still waiting for catastrophe you'll be waiting a long time, though. ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C5b1aVJWcAAf10Z.jpg:large) | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
On February 27 2017 06:49 bardtown wrote: There have been some banks announcing that they will move jobs to the continent, and foreign direct investment is down slightly. There will be more losses in 2019 for sure, and then it will take longer still for the benefits to kick in, such as the results of regained control of trade/laws. If you're still waiting for catastrophe you'll be waiting a long time, though. Good economic news would always be good economic news. The problem is misrepresentation and "alternative facts". But I guess we see a little into the mindset of bardtown, where good economic news is somehow a gloating opportunity against those who voted remain due to some strange expectations. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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MyTHicaL
France1070 Posts
Bottom line is 60billion needs to be paid, then the wicked witch of the west is actually going to have to openly accept that the trade deal with the EU will be pathetically weak compared to the one currently arranged. The elderly working class have destroyed the country. They seem to think it was a vote for a time machine. As for these amazing trade deals and laws that you think will turbo boost the economy. You always seem to forget that most of the world barely cares to make them with you. Especially England's constant ideology that it holds the stronger hand. Maybe you'll get a free trade deal with Mexico? | ||
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Kong95
17 Posts
On February 27 2017 18:53 MyTHicaL wrote: No you simply copy and pasted it from one of the brexit sources, the most reputable (hilarious as this is) being the telegraph, the least something like the Sun. So what? Bottom line is 60billion needs to be paid, then the wicked witch of the west is actually going to have to openly accept that the trade deal with the EU will be pathetically weak compared to the one currently arranged. The elderly working class have destroyed the country. They seem to think it was a vote for a time machine. As for these amazing trade deals and laws that you think will turbo boost the economy. You always seem to forget that most of the world barely cares to make them with you. Especially England's constant ideology that it holds the stronger hand. Maybe you'll get a free trade deal with Mexico? Totally agree with this. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
So, with the 'wicked witch of the west' in charge and Labour on the brink of collapse, do we think the UK will be able to move away from protectionist unions and towards embracing the full benefits of the next technological revolution? My perspective is that fertility rates are decreasing for a reason in Europe, and that a lower world population is ultimately a good thing. Other countries will follow suit when they reach the same level of development. The solution is not to plug the gap with immigrants, but to compensate with AI and innovation and hopefully get our productivity back on track while maintaining our standard of living. I fully expect AI/robotics to outpace all expectations in the next couple of decades and having appropriate infrastructure will make all the difference in taking advantage of this. With a clear mandate to reduce migration, this shift in focus seems attractive to me. Hope the govt recognise it. | ||
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warding
Portugal2397 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
On February 27 2017 18:18 bardtown wrote: No no no no, I am saying that "phenomenon" is entirely in your head.This may come as a shock to you but I actually didn't draw the cartoon. Everybody has noticed the phenomenon of Remainers being upset by positive news undermining their blind certainty that the elderly working class morons have destroyed the country. I know you didn't draw that cartoon as I don't actually think you stupid enough to sign a picture and display it in a forum, or are talented enough to articulate your thoughts with pictures. It is presumably being propugated into your head by whatever the source of that cartoon is. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
On February 27 2017 20:50 warding wrote: Brexit has not produced the economic shock that some were predicting. However, the sharp drop in the value of the GBP does mean a reduction of wealth. UK assets are worth 15% less in USD today vs before the Brexit vote. It's great news that the UK economy grew by 2% in 2016, but that doesn't really entirely compensate for the drop in wealth. I'd also bet that economic agents are assuming there won't be major shifts in trade policy/relations with the effective Brexit, which would necessarily cause turmoil in the economy. A reduction in wealth - yes, but with caveats. Prior to Brexit the IMF believed that sterling was overvalued by up to 20%. This overvaluation had an array of negative consequences for the British economy and the Bank of England have consistently aimed to reduce exchange rates to correct the imbalance. This has already had a positive impact on manufacturing and reducing our trade deficit with the EU. Inflation, which is the actual base for calculating any reduction in wealth, is currently below the Bank of England's target of 2%. It is likely to overshoot that next quarter, but for the time being it is still below wage growth. So, in real terms, no reduction in wealth as of yet, although inflation would have been lower without Brexit so in relative terms you can say there's been reduction. Investors err on the side of caution. Anything not disastrous from here on out is likely to cause the value of sterling to rise, because most are hedging for the effects of a hard Brexit (which I think it's fair to say have been overblown, anyway). The situation in the EU is that the EU itself wants to punish the UK to strengthen the union, but doing this will harm the economies of the nation states themselves, and they are unlikely to want to make sacrifices at the national level for some ideological gain at the EU level. Once things actually get under way I think we can expect political grandstanding to give way to pragmatism. Edit: With regards to my last comments about innovation and preparing for the next tech revolution: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/london-takes-title-of-world-s-most-innovative-city-1.3299538 | ||
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warding
Portugal2397 Posts
On February 27 2017 21:51 bardtown wrote: A reduction in wealth - yes, but with caveats. Prior to Brexit the IMF believed that sterling was overvalued by up to 20%. This overvaluation had an array of negative consequences for the British economy and the Bank of England have consistently aimed to reduce exchange rates to correct the imbalance. This has already had a positive impact on manufacturing and reducing our trade deficit with the EU. Inflation, which is the actual base for calculating any reduction in wealth, is currently below the Bank of England's target of 2%. It is likely to overshoot that next quarter, but for the time being it is still below wage growth. So, in real terms, no reduction in wealth as of yet, although inflation would have been lower without Brexit so in relative terms you can say there's been reduction. Investors err on the side of caution. Anything not disastrous from here on out is likely to cause the value of sterling to rise, because most are hedging for the effects of a hard Brexit (which I think it's fair to say have been overblown, anyway). The situation in the EU is that the EU itself wants to punish the UK to strengthen the union, but doing this will harm the economies of the nation states themselves, and they are unlikely to want to make sacrifices at the national level for some ideological gain at the EU level. Once things actually get under way I think we can expect political grandstanding to give way to pragmatism. Edit: With regards to my last comments about innovation and preparing for the next tech revolution: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/london-takes-title-of-world-s-most-innovative-city-1.3299538 I'll admit my macroeconomics aren't very sharp anymore (if they ever were), but if your imports are 30% of GDP, and those get a 15% hit, that's a 15% hit on 30% of your wealth - 4.5%. I'm really not sure about your statement on inflation being the basis to calculate reduction in wealth, especially in a global context, but then again, I'm not sure why the exchange rate shock isn't more evident in inflation numbers. Any help solving my confusion would be greatly appreciated. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18442 Posts
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BurningSera
Ireland19621 Posts
Frankfurt It is quite sad when you walk around some parts of London outside of the nice areas, there is simply not much money going around already, just look at how people dress 10 years ago and compared to today's street view, ugly. I truly feel sorry for the younger generations of english/immigrants. In this year and age, if you are not growing = you are behind, every seconds count. And brexiters seem like they want to play 'go back in time' game. Chinese dominated in technology, economy, education of the world up until 200 years ago, you dont see them want to go back in time, blame that and this. People move forward, go up, thats how asia rise so quickly; now look at what these self-entitled and fingerpointing dimwits brought to the country. What is worse is that, it looks like it will also hit Ireland quite hard as well if UK is going down. I fucking need to learn german for real now. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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