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On April 12 2013 13:03 govie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 12:18 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 11:53 jinorazi wrote:
so, what happens if nkorea does have nuke missile?
step 1) state nkorea has missiles with nuclear warhead
step 2) demonize kju regime
step 3) ???
step 4) war
will they(world) label nkorea as a nuclear weapon state (NWS) and move on like nk wants or forcibly remove them? They'll do the same thing they did with Pakistan. State they have nukes, give up their hopes on making them forget about nuclear weapons and move on. They can't "forcibly remove them", because if NK were to nuke Seoul and Tokyo, I doubt the USA would enjoy that, and the risks in attacking a NWS are just waaaay too high. On April 12 2013 11:54 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 11:45 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 10:22 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 02:24 nkr wrote:It's funny how the U.S invaded iraq because of the possibility that they might have access to weapons of mass destruction. Now we have a country with weapons of mass destruction who are also threatening to use them, and having usa as perhaps their main target, usa are more like "please stop it  " On an unrelated note; how much natural resources does north korea have to be such a poor country? Can't be much oil lying around. China does not want the US to have influence so close to there borders. China will never let the US attack NK or gain more influence in that territory. SK is bad enough ellready (in china's diplomatic and militairy defensive perspective). This is high stakes poker, on a level we normal people dont understand. US will never invade NK. and NK will never attack SK, because then china will annex NK so there defence isnt weakend. Do u really think the US would risk a war with russia and china over the subject NK, dont think so. It's more like China won't risk a war against the USA over NK. You said it yourself. They already have all the bases they can dream of in SK, the only thing NK would give them is a small border w/ China allowing for a possible (though highly unlikely) invasion. China won't invade NK because it will NOT benefit them to do so (they already have enough people in their country don't they, any more would be excessive, moreso if they're starving people they have to feed while already having trouble feeding their own population... cf. China preparing for the future by buying huge terrain in Africa). They would only say "we aren't happy with what you're doing" to the USA, but noone, NOONE can win a war against the USA. Right now, anyone waging a war against the USA, China or Russia would get wiped out (and if they fight each other, it will be mutual annihilation). The US & Russia have in excess of 2000 nukes than can probably be readied for war in a matter of hours, and China have them in hundreds. As the Japanese will testify, the USA will not hesitate to use them, so, again, attacking them is madness. So no, China & Russia won't do a damn thing if the US attack NK. Besides, they won't. The only thing they'll do is protect SK's soil and give them full air and naval support, and should SK decide to invade NK, I doubt we'd see any American soldier fighting on North Korean ground. They simply have no reason to lose soldiers over this if SK is willing to lose theirs. Point is that china will not let the US increase there presence in there region, like NK. US are overplaying there cards, china doesnt care what US says or does, so long as US doesnt increase there presence in the regions surrounding china. Yeah, so? What do you think China would do, if the USA were to increase their military presence in the region? They cant really because they do not have money, US only consumes and doesnt produce. Dont forget US has forced bugetshrinking over every department, because of the The Budget Control Act of 2011. Ive heard maintanance of armyproperty (aircraftcarriers etc) is likely not gonna happen, because there simply is no money. Do u really think the US is gonna do anything, i dont! The US and EU look nice and dandy like a ferrari, but we all know there engine (eco, politics and debt) is broke. U cant drive a car with a broken engine. U cant do 11/11 against Z, when u dont have money for the bunker 
I don't think you understand how life works.
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On April 12 2013 12:50 govie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 12:08 LegalLord wrote:On April 12 2013 11:54 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 11:45 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 10:22 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 02:24 nkr wrote:It's funny how the U.S invaded iraq because of the possibility that they might have access to weapons of mass destruction. Now we have a country with weapons of mass destruction who are also threatening to use them, and having usa as perhaps their main target, usa are more like "please stop it " On an unrelated note; how much natural resources does north korea have to be such a poor country? Can't be much oil lying around. China does not want the US to have influence so close to there borders. China will never let the US attack NK or gain more influence in that territory. SK is bad enough ellready (in china's diplomatic and militairy defensive perspective). This is high stakes poker, on a level we normal people dont understand. US will never invade NK. and NK will never attack SK, because then china will annex NK so there defence isnt weakend. Do u really think the US would risk a war with russia and china over the subject NK, dont think so. It's more like China won't risk a war against the USA over NK. You said it yourself. They already have all the bases they can dream of in SK, the only thing NK would give them is a small border w/ China allowing for a possible (though highly unlikely) invasion. China won't invade NK because it will NOT benefit them to do so (they already have enough people in their country don't they, any more would be excessive, moreso if they're starving people they have to feed while already having trouble feeding their own population... cf. China preparing for the future by buying huge terrain in Africa). They would only say "we aren't happy with what you're doing" to the USA, but noone, NOONE can win a war against the USA. Right now, anyone waging a war against the USA, China or Russia would get wiped out (and if they fight each other, it will be mutual annihilation). The US & Russia have in excess of 2000 nukes than can probably be readied for war in a matter of hours, and China have them in hundreds. As the Japanese will testify, the USA will not hesitate to use them, so, again, attacking them is madness. So no, China & Russia won't do a damn thing if the US attack NK. Besides, they won't. The only thing they'll do is protect SK's soil and give them full air and naval support, and should SK decide to invade NK, I doubt we'd see any American soldier fighting on North Korean ground. They simply have no reason to lose soldiers over this if SK is willing to lose theirs. Point is that china will not let the US increase there presence in there region, like NK. US are overplaying there cards, china doesnt care what US says or does, so long as US doesnt increase there presence in the regions surrounding china. See, that was the case just a few years ago. But between the artillery strikes, random attacks on Chinese fishermen, and the missile testing over the last 3 years, China has really gotten sick of NK to the point that they're almost willing to let it happen. If some arrangement were to be made that minimized the effect of US presence so close to the Chinese border, China is at the point that they might be willing to turn a blind eye. I dont believe that to happen. Yes, china can vomit over NK-propaganda, but there long term goals are way more important. they are not stupid, They will never let the US increase there influence in the surrounding regions. US isnt what it was anymore, they are broke (china is there biggest creditor). US only consume nowadays and doesnt produce much of its own. The henri fords and other big imperiums are gone. We all know china, india, south america and oil producing countries will become the dominant regions in the future. US will not even fund military operations at this moment, as the people dont support war in a far away country because this will mean more taxation.
The us still has a large manufacturing base, and still produces huge amounts of food and is headed towards being a oil exporter rather than importer. You really need to cut down on your over statement and gross generalizations. And if china kills the American economy they kill their own, by your own logic. And south america and the oil producing nations are mostly a mess at the moment, so that must be the very far future. In the foreseeable future the US will still be a gigantic power, in large part because the economies of the us and china are tied together so heavily.
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On April 12 2013 14:29 Jaaaaasper wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 12:50 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 12:08 LegalLord wrote:On April 12 2013 11:54 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 11:45 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 10:22 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 02:24 nkr wrote:It's funny how the U.S invaded iraq because of the possibility that they might have access to weapons of mass destruction. Now we have a country with weapons of mass destruction who are also threatening to use them, and having usa as perhaps their main target, usa are more like "please stop it " On an unrelated note; how much natural resources does north korea have to be such a poor country? Can't be much oil lying around. China does not want the US to have influence so close to there borders. China will never let the US attack NK or gain more influence in that territory. SK is bad enough ellready (in china's diplomatic and militairy defensive perspective). This is high stakes poker, on a level we normal people dont understand. US will never invade NK. and NK will never attack SK, because then china will annex NK so there defence isnt weakend. Do u really think the US would risk a war with russia and china over the subject NK, dont think so. It's more like China won't risk a war against the USA over NK. You said it yourself. They already have all the bases they can dream of in SK, the only thing NK would give them is a small border w/ China allowing for a possible (though highly unlikely) invasion. China won't invade NK because it will NOT benefit them to do so (they already have enough people in their country don't they, any more would be excessive, moreso if they're starving people they have to feed while already having trouble feeding their own population... cf. China preparing for the future by buying huge terrain in Africa). They would only say "we aren't happy with what you're doing" to the USA, but noone, NOONE can win a war against the USA. Right now, anyone waging a war against the USA, China or Russia would get wiped out (and if they fight each other, it will be mutual annihilation). The US & Russia have in excess of 2000 nukes than can probably be readied for war in a matter of hours, and China have them in hundreds. As the Japanese will testify, the USA will not hesitate to use them, so, again, attacking them is madness. So no, China & Russia won't do a damn thing if the US attack NK. Besides, they won't. The only thing they'll do is protect SK's soil and give them full air and naval support, and should SK decide to invade NK, I doubt we'd see any American soldier fighting on North Korean ground. They simply have no reason to lose soldiers over this if SK is willing to lose theirs. Point is that china will not let the US increase there presence in there region, like NK. US are overplaying there cards, china doesnt care what US says or does, so long as US doesnt increase there presence in the regions surrounding china. See, that was the case just a few years ago. But between the artillery strikes, random attacks on Chinese fishermen, and the missile testing over the last 3 years, China has really gotten sick of NK to the point that they're almost willing to let it happen. If some arrangement were to be made that minimized the effect of US presence so close to the Chinese border, China is at the point that they might be willing to turn a blind eye. I dont believe that to happen. Yes, china can vomit over NK-propaganda, but there long term goals are way more important. they are not stupid, They will never let the US increase there influence in the surrounding regions. US isnt what it was anymore, they are broke (china is there biggest creditor). US only consume nowadays and doesnt produce much of its own. The henri fords and other big imperiums are gone. We all know china, india, south america and oil producing countries will become the dominant regions in the future. US will not even fund military operations at this moment, as the people dont support war in a far away country because this will mean more taxation. The us still has a large manufacturing base, and still produces huge amounts of food and is headed towards being a oil exporter rather than importer. You really need to cut down on your over statement and gross generalizations. And if china kills the American economy they kill their own, by your own logic. And south america and the oil producing nations are mostly a mess at the moment, so that must be the very far future. In the foreseeable future the US will still be a gigantic power, in large part because the economies of the us and china are tied together so heavily.
He's right in that the U.S. isn't what it was before, but for the wrong reasons. The countries surrounding the U.S. on the globe are much stronger relative to the U.S. than they were in the 20th century. U.S. didn't really get weaker, it's just not -that- much stronger anymore.
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On April 12 2013 14:29 Jaaaaasper wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 12:50 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 12:08 LegalLord wrote:On April 12 2013 11:54 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 11:45 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 10:22 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 02:24 nkr wrote:It's funny how the U.S invaded iraq because of the possibility that they might have access to weapons of mass destruction. Now we have a country with weapons of mass destruction who are also threatening to use them, and having usa as perhaps their main target, usa are more like "please stop it " On an unrelated note; how much natural resources does north korea have to be such a poor country? Can't be much oil lying around. China does not want the US to have influence so close to there borders. China will never let the US attack NK or gain more influence in that territory. SK is bad enough ellready (in china's diplomatic and militairy defensive perspective). This is high stakes poker, on a level we normal people dont understand. US will never invade NK. and NK will never attack SK, because then china will annex NK so there defence isnt weakend. Do u really think the US would risk a war with russia and china over the subject NK, dont think so. It's more like China won't risk a war against the USA over NK. You said it yourself. They already have all the bases they can dream of in SK, the only thing NK would give them is a small border w/ China allowing for a possible (though highly unlikely) invasion. China won't invade NK because it will NOT benefit them to do so (they already have enough people in their country don't they, any more would be excessive, moreso if they're starving people they have to feed while already having trouble feeding their own population... cf. China preparing for the future by buying huge terrain in Africa). They would only say "we aren't happy with what you're doing" to the USA, but noone, NOONE can win a war against the USA. Right now, anyone waging a war against the USA, China or Russia would get wiped out (and if they fight each other, it will be mutual annihilation). The US & Russia have in excess of 2000 nukes than can probably be readied for war in a matter of hours, and China have them in hundreds. As the Japanese will testify, the USA will not hesitate to use them, so, again, attacking them is madness. So no, China & Russia won't do a damn thing if the US attack NK. Besides, they won't. The only thing they'll do is protect SK's soil and give them full air and naval support, and should SK decide to invade NK, I doubt we'd see any American soldier fighting on North Korean ground. They simply have no reason to lose soldiers over this if SK is willing to lose theirs. Point is that china will not let the US increase there presence in there region, like NK. US are overplaying there cards, china doesnt care what US says or does, so long as US doesnt increase there presence in the regions surrounding china. See, that was the case just a few years ago. But between the artillery strikes, random attacks on Chinese fishermen, and the missile testing over the last 3 years, China has really gotten sick of NK to the point that they're almost willing to let it happen. If some arrangement were to be made that minimized the effect of US presence so close to the Chinese border, China is at the point that they might be willing to turn a blind eye. I dont believe that to happen. Yes, china can vomit over NK-propaganda, but there long term goals are way more important. they are not stupid, They will never let the US increase there influence in the surrounding regions. US isnt what it was anymore, they are broke (china is there biggest creditor). US only consume nowadays and doesnt produce much of its own. The henri fords and other big imperiums are gone. We all know china, india, south america and oil producing countries will become the dominant regions in the future. US will not even fund military operations at this moment, as the people dont support war in a far away country because this will mean more taxation. The us still has a large manufacturing base, and still produces huge amounts of food and is headed towards being a oil exporter rather than importer. You really need to cut down on your over statement and gross generalizations. And if china kills the American economy they kill their own, by your own logic. And south america and the oil producing nations are mostly a mess at the moment, so that must be the very far future. In the foreseeable future the US will still be a gigantic power, in large part because the economies of the us and china are tied together so heavily.
I agree totally that china's economy is partly dependant on the economy of the US (like allmost every economy). But that doesnt mean China wants more US presence in there region.
edit : Ofc. US produces alot, but your Debt/GDP ratio is not looking good and your politicians refuse the solve the problem and therefore debt-act kicks in (in that way, no democrat or replubican has to take any responsibility for anything....). These cuts will have a large impact on foreign policies ofcourse, because the defence department has less resources to spend and therefore options are limited for the US too.
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http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/04/12/2013041200566.html
China recently moved an Army corps close to the North Korean border and staged a live-fire exercise with tanks and self-propelled guns.
Experts believe Beijing is taking no chances in case a North Korean provocation leads to an emergency.
The official Global Times on Monday reported that an armored brigade from a Shenyang mechanized infantry unit carried out live-fire maneuvers near the border on April 1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/39th_Army_(People's_Republic_of_China)
This is probably the military unit involved; it's a Class-A (high-readiness) military unit with more tanks than any other equivalent unit of the Chinese Army.
Group Armies have between 50-60,000 people each, and are corps-sized maneuver formations.
What will be telling is whether the PLA detaches 2nd Artillery (strategic rocketry) units to Group Army control and/or decentralizes targeting authority. If that happens, then it will be the first inkling that the PLA is really getting ready for a military intervention, since their doctrine stresses forward control of strategic firepower (basically, get the trigger for the biggest gun possible into the guy as close to the front line as possible). Of course, we the people will have no idea whether that's happening; only intelligence analysts would have a shot at getting such a scoop. What's more likely is that step two (a mobilization of the other two group armies in the Shenyang MR) will be most of the world's first indication that China intends to intervene, somehow, in any Korean conflict.
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On April 12 2013 15:08 govie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 14:29 Jaaaaasper wrote:On April 12 2013 12:50 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 12:08 LegalLord wrote:On April 12 2013 11:54 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 11:45 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 10:22 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 02:24 nkr wrote:It's funny how the U.S invaded iraq because of the possibility that they might have access to weapons of mass destruction. Now we have a country with weapons of mass destruction who are also threatening to use them, and having usa as perhaps their main target, usa are more like "please stop it " On an unrelated note; how much natural resources does north korea have to be such a poor country? Can't be much oil lying around. China does not want the US to have influence so close to there borders. China will never let the US attack NK or gain more influence in that territory. SK is bad enough ellready (in china's diplomatic and militairy defensive perspective). This is high stakes poker, on a level we normal people dont understand. US will never invade NK. and NK will never attack SK, because then china will annex NK so there defence isnt weakend. Do u really think the US would risk a war with russia and china over the subject NK, dont think so. It's more like China won't risk a war against the USA over NK. You said it yourself. They already have all the bases they can dream of in SK, the only thing NK would give them is a small border w/ China allowing for a possible (though highly unlikely) invasion. China won't invade NK because it will NOT benefit them to do so (they already have enough people in their country don't they, any more would be excessive, moreso if they're starving people they have to feed while already having trouble feeding their own population... cf. China preparing for the future by buying huge terrain in Africa). They would only say "we aren't happy with what you're doing" to the USA, but noone, NOONE can win a war against the USA. Right now, anyone waging a war against the USA, China or Russia would get wiped out (and if they fight each other, it will be mutual annihilation). The US & Russia have in excess of 2000 nukes than can probably be readied for war in a matter of hours, and China have them in hundreds. As the Japanese will testify, the USA will not hesitate to use them, so, again, attacking them is madness. So no, China & Russia won't do a damn thing if the US attack NK. Besides, they won't. The only thing they'll do is protect SK's soil and give them full air and naval support, and should SK decide to invade NK, I doubt we'd see any American soldier fighting on North Korean ground. They simply have no reason to lose soldiers over this if SK is willing to lose theirs. Point is that china will not let the US increase there presence in there region, like NK. US are overplaying there cards, china doesnt care what US says or does, so long as US doesnt increase there presence in the regions surrounding china. See, that was the case just a few years ago. But between the artillery strikes, random attacks on Chinese fishermen, and the missile testing over the last 3 years, China has really gotten sick of NK to the point that they're almost willing to let it happen. If some arrangement were to be made that minimized the effect of US presence so close to the Chinese border, China is at the point that they might be willing to turn a blind eye. I dont believe that to happen. Yes, china can vomit over NK-propaganda, but there long term goals are way more important. they are not stupid, They will never let the US increase there influence in the surrounding regions. US isnt what it was anymore, they are broke (china is there biggest creditor). US only consume nowadays and doesnt produce much of its own. The henri fords and other big imperiums are gone. We all know china, india, south america and oil producing countries will become the dominant regions in the future. US will not even fund military operations at this moment, as the people dont support war in a far away country because this will mean more taxation. The us still has a large manufacturing base, and still produces huge amounts of food and is headed towards being a oil exporter rather than importer. You really need to cut down on your over statement and gross generalizations. And if china kills the American economy they kill their own, by your own logic. And south america and the oil producing nations are mostly a mess at the moment, so that must be the very far future. In the foreseeable future the US will still be a gigantic power, in large part because the economies of the us and china are tied together so heavily. edit : Ofc. US produces alot, but your Debt/GDP ratio is not looking good and your politicians refuse the solve the problem and therefore debt-act kicks in (in that way, no democrat or replubican has to take any responsibility for anything....). These cuts will have a large impact on foreign policies ofcourse, because the defence department has less resources to spend and therefore options are limited for the US too.
Debt/GDP ratio really isn't that bad. Given the recession and military involvement of the past decade, it's understandable. It's also pretty manageable, as far as debt goes. I think the country will just grow fast enough to outpace the debt.
Political troubles, on the other hand, are pretty harmful. The US credit was downgraded because of the stalemate in Congress over the past few years.
Every other country with comparable power is in more trouble than the US though. Russia and China both have very apparent issues within their economy, and Germany has Euro(currency) troubles to deal with. By no means is the United States on the way down.
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On April 12 2013 15:37 Shady Sands wrote:http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/04/12/2013041200566.htmlShow nested quote +China recently moved an Army corps close to the North Korean border and staged a live-fire exercise with tanks and self-propelled guns.
Experts believe Beijing is taking no chances in case a North Korean provocation leads to an emergency.
The official Global Times on Monday reported that an armored brigade from a Shenyang mechanized infantry unit carried out live-fire maneuvers near the border on April 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/39th_Army_(People's_Republic_of_China)This is probably the military unit involved; it's a Class-A (high-readiness) military unit with more tanks than any other equivalent unit of the Chinese Army. Group Armies have between 50-60,000 people each, and are corps-sized maneuver formations. What will be telling is whether the PLA detaches 2nd Artillery (strategic rocketry) units to Group Army control and/or decentralizes targeting authority. If that happens, then it will be the first inkling that the PLA is really getting ready for a military intervention, since their doctrine stresses forward control of strategic firepower (basically, get the trigger for the biggest gun possible into the guy as close to the front line as possible). Of course, we the people will have no idea whether that's happening; only intelligence analysts would have a shot at getting such a scoop. What's more likely is that step two (a mobilization of the other two group armies in the Shenyang MR) will be most of the world's first indication that China intends to intervene, somehow, in any Korean conflict.
I can't imagine China directly helping NK like they did in Korean War since that would mean direct military confrontation with the US, and that's just disastrous beyond words for both. One option for China, if they can somehow pull it off, is to militarily remove Kim Jung Eun's regime from power themselves and install their puppet, who could be Kim Jung Nam (Kim Jung Il's 1st son who got exiled and now lives in Macau), rather than letting the US topple NK and reunify Korea.
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On April 12 2013 15:50 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 15:08 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 14:29 Jaaaaasper wrote:On April 12 2013 12:50 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 12:08 LegalLord wrote:On April 12 2013 11:54 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 11:45 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 10:22 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 02:24 nkr wrote:It's funny how the U.S invaded iraq because of the possibility that they might have access to weapons of mass destruction. Now we have a country with weapons of mass destruction who are also threatening to use them, and having usa as perhaps their main target, usa are more like "please stop it " On an unrelated note; how much natural resources does north korea have to be such a poor country? Can't be much oil lying around. China does not want the US to have influence so close to there borders. China will never let the US attack NK or gain more influence in that territory. SK is bad enough ellready (in china's diplomatic and militairy defensive perspective). This is high stakes poker, on a level we normal people dont understand. US will never invade NK. and NK will never attack SK, because then china will annex NK so there defence isnt weakend. Do u really think the US would risk a war with russia and china over the subject NK, dont think so. It's more like China won't risk a war against the USA over NK. You said it yourself. They already have all the bases they can dream of in SK, the only thing NK would give them is a small border w/ China allowing for a possible (though highly unlikely) invasion. China won't invade NK because it will NOT benefit them to do so (they already have enough people in their country don't they, any more would be excessive, moreso if they're starving people they have to feed while already having trouble feeding their own population... cf. China preparing for the future by buying huge terrain in Africa). They would only say "we aren't happy with what you're doing" to the USA, but noone, NOONE can win a war against the USA. Right now, anyone waging a war against the USA, China or Russia would get wiped out (and if they fight each other, it will be mutual annihilation). The US & Russia have in excess of 2000 nukes than can probably be readied for war in a matter of hours, and China have them in hundreds. As the Japanese will testify, the USA will not hesitate to use them, so, again, attacking them is madness. So no, China & Russia won't do a damn thing if the US attack NK. Besides, they won't. The only thing they'll do is protect SK's soil and give them full air and naval support, and should SK decide to invade NK, I doubt we'd see any American soldier fighting on North Korean ground. They simply have no reason to lose soldiers over this if SK is willing to lose theirs. Point is that china will not let the US increase there presence in there region, like NK. US are overplaying there cards, china doesnt care what US says or does, so long as US doesnt increase there presence in the regions surrounding china. See, that was the case just a few years ago. But between the artillery strikes, random attacks on Chinese fishermen, and the missile testing over the last 3 years, China has really gotten sick of NK to the point that they're almost willing to let it happen. If some arrangement were to be made that minimized the effect of US presence so close to the Chinese border, China is at the point that they might be willing to turn a blind eye. I dont believe that to happen. Yes, china can vomit over NK-propaganda, but there long term goals are way more important. they are not stupid, They will never let the US increase there influence in the surrounding regions. US isnt what it was anymore, they are broke (china is there biggest creditor). US only consume nowadays and doesnt produce much of its own. The henri fords and other big imperiums are gone. We all know china, india, south america and oil producing countries will become the dominant regions in the future. US will not even fund military operations at this moment, as the people dont support war in a far away country because this will mean more taxation. The us still has a large manufacturing base, and still produces huge amounts of food and is headed towards being a oil exporter rather than importer. You really need to cut down on your over statement and gross generalizations. And if china kills the American economy they kill their own, by your own logic. And south america and the oil producing nations are mostly a mess at the moment, so that must be the very far future. In the foreseeable future the US will still be a gigantic power, in large part because the economies of the us and china are tied together so heavily. edit : Ofc. US produces alot, but your Debt/GDP ratio is not looking good and your politicians refuse the solve the problem and therefore debt-act kicks in (in that way, no democrat or replubican has to take any responsibility for anything....). These cuts will have a large impact on foreign policies ofcourse, because the defence department has less resources to spend and therefore options are limited for the US too. Debt/GDP ratio really isn't that bad. Given the recession and military involvement of the past decade, it's understandable. It's also pretty manageable, as far as debt goes. I think the country will just grow fast enough to outpace the debt. Political troubles, on the other hand, are pretty harmful. The US credit was downgraded because of the stalemate in Congress over the past few years. Every other country with comparable power is in more trouble than the US though. Russia and China both have very apparent issues within their economy, and Germany has Euro(currency) troubles to deal with. By no means is the United States on the way down.
Bad politics are harmfull everywhere.. Hell, its like high stakes poker, all the worldpowers etcetc. But that does not change my argument, that economically speaking this is not a nice time for the us to spend more on warfare. And, china rather solves NK itself then to let US do something that would intensify there influence over the region.
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On April 12 2013 16:03 don_kyuhote wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 15:37 Shady Sands wrote:http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/04/12/2013041200566.htmlChina recently moved an Army corps close to the North Korean border and staged a live-fire exercise with tanks and self-propelled guns.
Experts believe Beijing is taking no chances in case a North Korean provocation leads to an emergency.
The official Global Times on Monday reported that an armored brigade from a Shenyang mechanized infantry unit carried out live-fire maneuvers near the border on April 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/39th_Army_(People's_Republic_of_China)This is probably the military unit involved; it's a Class-A (high-readiness) military unit with more tanks than any other equivalent unit of the Chinese Army. Group Armies have between 50-60,000 people each, and are corps-sized maneuver formations. What will be telling is whether the PLA detaches 2nd Artillery (strategic rocketry) units to Group Army control and/or decentralizes targeting authority. If that happens, then it will be the first inkling that the PLA is really getting ready for a military intervention, since their doctrine stresses forward control of strategic firepower (basically, get the trigger for the biggest gun possible into the guy as close to the front line as possible). Of course, we the people will have no idea whether that's happening; only intelligence analysts would have a shot at getting such a scoop. What's more likely is that step two (a mobilization of the other two group armies in the Shenyang MR) will be most of the world's first indication that China intends to intervene, somehow, in any Korean conflict. I can't imagine China directly helping NK like they did in Korean War since that would mean direct military confrontation with the US, and that's just disastrous beyond words for both. One option for China, if they can somehow pull it off, is to militarily remove Kim Jung Eun's regime from power themselves and install their puppet, who could be Kim Jung Nam (Kim Jung Il's 1st son who got exiled and now lives in Macau), rather than letting the US topple NK and reunify Korea.
Or they're positioning themselves to contain any conflict that does erupt. This could mean offering cover for refugees or making sure any action taken by NA, SK, or Japan is contained within NK borders (from SK or the sea).
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On April 12 2013 16:17 govie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 15:50 LegalLord wrote:On April 12 2013 15:08 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 14:29 Jaaaaasper wrote:On April 12 2013 12:50 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 12:08 LegalLord wrote:On April 12 2013 11:54 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 11:45 Adel wrote:On April 12 2013 10:22 govie wrote:On April 12 2013 02:24 nkr wrote:It's funny how the U.S invaded iraq because of the possibility that they might have access to weapons of mass destruction. Now we have a country with weapons of mass destruction who are also threatening to use them, and having usa as perhaps their main target, usa are more like "please stop it " On an unrelated note; how much natural resources does north korea have to be such a poor country? Can't be much oil lying around. China does not want the US to have influence so close to there borders. China will never let the US attack NK or gain more influence in that territory. SK is bad enough ellready (in china's diplomatic and militairy defensive perspective). This is high stakes poker, on a level we normal people dont understand. US will never invade NK. and NK will never attack SK, because then china will annex NK so there defence isnt weakend. Do u really think the US would risk a war with russia and china over the subject NK, dont think so. It's more like China won't risk a war against the USA over NK. You said it yourself. They already have all the bases they can dream of in SK, the only thing NK would give them is a small border w/ China allowing for a possible (though highly unlikely) invasion. China won't invade NK because it will NOT benefit them to do so (they already have enough people in their country don't they, any more would be excessive, moreso if they're starving people they have to feed while already having trouble feeding their own population... cf. China preparing for the future by buying huge terrain in Africa). They would only say "we aren't happy with what you're doing" to the USA, but noone, NOONE can win a war against the USA. Right now, anyone waging a war against the USA, China or Russia would get wiped out (and if they fight each other, it will be mutual annihilation). The US & Russia have in excess of 2000 nukes than can probably be readied for war in a matter of hours, and China have them in hundreds. As the Japanese will testify, the USA will not hesitate to use them, so, again, attacking them is madness. So no, China & Russia won't do a damn thing if the US attack NK. Besides, they won't. The only thing they'll do is protect SK's soil and give them full air and naval support, and should SK decide to invade NK, I doubt we'd see any American soldier fighting on North Korean ground. They simply have no reason to lose soldiers over this if SK is willing to lose theirs. Point is that china will not let the US increase there presence in there region, like NK. US are overplaying there cards, china doesnt care what US says or does, so long as US doesnt increase there presence in the regions surrounding china. See, that was the case just a few years ago. But between the artillery strikes, random attacks on Chinese fishermen, and the missile testing over the last 3 years, China has really gotten sick of NK to the point that they're almost willing to let it happen. If some arrangement were to be made that minimized the effect of US presence so close to the Chinese border, China is at the point that they might be willing to turn a blind eye. I dont believe that to happen. Yes, china can vomit over NK-propaganda, but there long term goals are way more important. they are not stupid, They will never let the US increase there influence in the surrounding regions. US isnt what it was anymore, they are broke (china is there biggest creditor). US only consume nowadays and doesnt produce much of its own. The henri fords and other big imperiums are gone. We all know china, india, south america and oil producing countries will become the dominant regions in the future. US will not even fund military operations at this moment, as the people dont support war in a far away country because this will mean more taxation. The us still has a large manufacturing base, and still produces huge amounts of food and is headed towards being a oil exporter rather than importer. You really need to cut down on your over statement and gross generalizations. And if china kills the American economy they kill their own, by your own logic. And south america and the oil producing nations are mostly a mess at the moment, so that must be the very far future. In the foreseeable future the US will still be a gigantic power, in large part because the economies of the us and china are tied together so heavily. edit : Ofc. US produces alot, but your Debt/GDP ratio is not looking good and your politicians refuse the solve the problem and therefore debt-act kicks in (in that way, no democrat or replubican has to take any responsibility for anything....). These cuts will have a large impact on foreign policies ofcourse, because the defence department has less resources to spend and therefore options are limited for the US too. Debt/GDP ratio really isn't that bad. Given the recession and military involvement of the past decade, it's understandable. It's also pretty manageable, as far as debt goes. I think the country will just grow fast enough to outpace the debt. Political troubles, on the other hand, are pretty harmful. The US credit was downgraded because of the stalemate in Congress over the past few years. Every other country with comparable power is in more trouble than the US though. Russia and China both have very apparent issues within their economy, and Germany has Euro(currency) troubles to deal with. By no means is the United States on the way down. Bad politics are harmfull everywhere.. Hell, its like high stakes poker, all the worldpowers etcetc. But that does not change my argument, that economically speaking this is not a nice time for the us to spend more on warfare. And, china rather solves NK itself then to let US do something that would intensify there influence over the region.
wat
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On April 12 2013 16:17 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 16:03 don_kyuhote wrote:On April 12 2013 15:37 Shady Sands wrote:http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/04/12/2013041200566.htmlChina recently moved an Army corps close to the North Korean border and staged a live-fire exercise with tanks and self-propelled guns.
Experts believe Beijing is taking no chances in case a North Korean provocation leads to an emergency.
The official Global Times on Monday reported that an armored brigade from a Shenyang mechanized infantry unit carried out live-fire maneuvers near the border on April 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/39th_Army_(People's_Republic_of_China)This is probably the military unit involved; it's a Class-A (high-readiness) military unit with more tanks than any other equivalent unit of the Chinese Army. Group Armies have between 50-60,000 people each, and are corps-sized maneuver formations. What will be telling is whether the PLA detaches 2nd Artillery (strategic rocketry) units to Group Army control and/or decentralizes targeting authority. If that happens, then it will be the first inkling that the PLA is really getting ready for a military intervention, since their doctrine stresses forward control of strategic firepower (basically, get the trigger for the biggest gun possible into the guy as close to the front line as possible). Of course, we the people will have no idea whether that's happening; only intelligence analysts would have a shot at getting such a scoop. What's more likely is that step two (a mobilization of the other two group armies in the Shenyang MR) will be most of the world's first indication that China intends to intervene, somehow, in any Korean conflict. I can't imagine China directly helping NK like they did in Korean War since that would mean direct military confrontation with the US, and that's just disastrous beyond words for both. One option for China, if they can somehow pull it off, is to militarily remove Kim Jung Eun's regime from power themselves and install their puppet, who could be Kim Jung Nam (Kim Jung Il's 1st son who got exiled and now lives in Macau), rather than letting the US topple NK and reunify Korea. Or they're positioning themselves to contain any conflict that does erupt. This could mean offering cover for refugees or making sure any action taken by NA, SK, or Japan is contained within NK borders (from SK or the sea).
you don't offer cover for refugees with Class-A military units.
China and NK are allies and have signed deals/treaties that allow China to 'help' NK in case of war.
China would use that as an excuse (for what will be seen as an invasion) and march into NK if/when war would start.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/01/south-korea-retaliate-north-attacks
South Korea has said it will strike back with immediate and overwhelming force if North Korea launches an attack on its territory, days after Pyongyang said it had entered a "state of war" with its neighbour.
"If there is any provocation against South Korea and its people, there should be a strong response in initial combat, regardless of the political considerations," the South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, told senior military officials on Monday.
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North Korea has a military that is comparable to Saddam Hussein's during the gulf war... remember how well they did? Their tanks and planes number in the thousands but are ancient craft from the 50-60's. They would literally be blown apart by forces they couldn't even see. Additionally, there are reports that the government is starving it's population even more than usual to feed the army. How well do you think those forces are going to do when the number one NK concern is defection.
North Korea has been pulling these stunts for years to get concessions and money from the rest of the world. The US has about 15,000 troops in South Korea... which basically means if a war were to start there would be no evacuation possible and the US would be involved in the war. This is not by accident. It's a clear message to NK effectively eliminating the option of actually attacking the south. Additionally the South has a pretty good military with modern US equipment and would likely be able to defend themselves alone if required.
To be honest, if we had just paid off North Korea rather than moving all those battleships and bombers into the area it would have saved money. It costs a fortune to mobilize as much as we did to respond to this fake nuclear threat.
That is the problem with nuclear weapons... we cant go in there and take them out because they would launch nukes ( they most likely have 5-10 of them). This is the first time they have threatened to use them so we are kind of forced to make an expensive response. In the end though this escalation of threats will not result in a bomb going off. NK has 2 reasons for doing this:
1. The old saber rattling is not landing them as much money as before
2. The entire population is on the verge of mutiny and the regime has a lot invested in the brainwashing tactic of it's NK vs the world.
In my opinions the best course of action is to continue to pay them off until the whole mess collapses in on itself. At that point you may or may not have to send in troops to secure weapons from being launched by lunatics or from disappearing into the black market.
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On April 12 2013 16:54 Pabs wrote:
That is the problem with nuclear weapons... we cant go in there and take them out because they would launch nukes ( they most likely have 5-10 of them).
That's some next level intell. Who told you!?
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On April 12 2013 16:25 xM(Z wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 16:17 aksfjh wrote:On April 12 2013 16:03 don_kyuhote wrote:On April 12 2013 15:37 Shady Sands wrote:http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/04/12/2013041200566.htmlChina recently moved an Army corps close to the North Korean border and staged a live-fire exercise with tanks and self-propelled guns.
Experts believe Beijing is taking no chances in case a North Korean provocation leads to an emergency.
The official Global Times on Monday reported that an armored brigade from a Shenyang mechanized infantry unit carried out live-fire maneuvers near the border on April 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/39th_Army_(People's_Republic_of_China)This is probably the military unit involved; it's a Class-A (high-readiness) military unit with more tanks than any other equivalent unit of the Chinese Army. Group Armies have between 50-60,000 people each, and are corps-sized maneuver formations. What will be telling is whether the PLA detaches 2nd Artillery (strategic rocketry) units to Group Army control and/or decentralizes targeting authority. If that happens, then it will be the first inkling that the PLA is really getting ready for a military intervention, since their doctrine stresses forward control of strategic firepower (basically, get the trigger for the biggest gun possible into the guy as close to the front line as possible). Of course, we the people will have no idea whether that's happening; only intelligence analysts would have a shot at getting such a scoop. What's more likely is that step two (a mobilization of the other two group armies in the Shenyang MR) will be most of the world's first indication that China intends to intervene, somehow, in any Korean conflict. I can't imagine China directly helping NK like they did in Korean War since that would mean direct military confrontation with the US, and that's just disastrous beyond words for both. One option for China, if they can somehow pull it off, is to militarily remove Kim Jung Eun's regime from power themselves and install their puppet, who could be Kim Jung Nam (Kim Jung Il's 1st son who got exiled and now lives in Macau), rather than letting the US topple NK and reunify Korea. Or they're positioning themselves to contain any conflict that does erupt. This could mean offering cover for refugees or making sure any action taken by NA, SK, or Japan is contained within NK borders (from SK or the sea). you don't offer cover for refugees with Class-A military units. China and NK are allies and have signed deals/treaties that allow China to 'help' NK in case of war. China would use that as an excuse (for what will be seen as an invasion) and march into NK if/when war would start.
You're right - Class-A units are excessive for refugee control.
Honestly, I could see China not necessarily 'invading' NK, but trying to rush mechanized units to whatever front line there is between NK and SK/US to impose a cordon sanitaire - even if it means shooting up uncooperative NK units en route - so China can say 'not one step further' to the US/ROK while also keeping NK and US/ROK units from shooting at each other.
Then Chinese envoys would engineer some sort of regime change in NK behind their newly imposed armistice line, and active diplomacy with the US/ROK would start.
The long-term goal of such diplomacy would likely be a bargain with the ROK where they eject US forces from the peninsula in exchange for China handing back the northern half of their country. If China wanted to be greedy they could ask for the ROK's renunciation of the mutual defense pact with the US/Japan as an additional chunk of the asking price. Of course, the US (and especially Japan) would object, which turns that into a whole new can of worms, but one which is kind of beyond the scope of reasoned analysis at this point.
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The more I think about it, the more that above scenario - the Chinese 'cordon sanitaire' - makes sense.
You don't need a Class-A unit for refugee control, but it's not necessarily the case that they have the most firepower, either. What Class-A units (at least in the Chinese Army) do have is the fastest ability to accelerate forward from a standing start, and the most maneuverable asset mix (a much greater amount of tracked AFVs/helos/engineering units.)
The other thing is that the 39th Group Army is still only one Group Army. The ROK military is 600,000 strong, or more than 10x the size of the 39th; the PLA would have to devote an enormous amount of manpower to Korea if it really wanted to fight an actual war.
So what China will do is basically announce, maybe 5 or 10 minutes after the ROK/US start hitting back against NK's provocations, that they are going in to force open a DMZ with the PLA as peacekeepers, and no ROK/US forces will be allowed past that line, and if any ROK/US forces shoot at China's small (relatively speaking) expeditionary force, China will be more than happy to oblige them with a full-scale land war in Asia against the entire Chinese Army.
Neither Obama nor Park would want that. So then the 39th GA rushes down to the front line, the cordon goes into place - maybe after some confused localized shooting, but nothing major, unless NK/China relations are much more terrible than we all think - then you have Chinese envoys going to Pyongyang and telling Kim III that the 39th Army will be leaving after two weeks, which would expose Kim to becoming another Ceaucescu if he were still in power - or Kim can take advantage of this two week window to abdicate and find a nice hotel room in Macau to spend the rest of his years, maybe hanging out with his elder half-brother. In the meanwhile, China finds a few reformist NK generals/ministers to carry the torch for a year or two while reunification talks occur, and then the US and China finally leave Korea alone.
ROK President Park goes down as the woman who finally ended the 118 year stretch of de facto foreign occupation of the Korean peninsula. The US gets peace and a reunified Korea; China gets to look like a responsible stakeholder in the region while achieving a neutral Korea that has more reason to hate Japan than hate China; everyone goes home happy and we might even see a Nobel Peace Prize or two come out of the whole aftermath.
In fact, given that Kerry's visiting Beijing over the next few days, I would not be surprised if this was exactly the message that Xi Jinping delivers to him - sans the Chinese call for a US pullout from Korea after such a cordon is in place, of course, but Kerry/Obama are probably smart enough to anticipate that chess move on their own.
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Could be true, but i dont think china foreign policies are aimed at reuniting korea. Because there dominance in the region would decrease when korea is reunited. I believe China will try to keep north and south korea seperate for as long as they can.
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On April 12 2013 18:21 govie wrote:
Could be true, but i dont think china foreign policies are aimed at reuniting korea. Because there dominance in the region would decrease when korea is reunited. I believe China will try to keep north and south korea seperate for as long as they can.
Depends on who you talk to in the Chinese government.
I'm not at liberty to say who my sources are, but I'll just hint that some people very high up the food chain in Beijing have made noises, to their friends and to the media, that they would be fine if the ROK inherited the Korean peninsula so long as they 1) renounced the US-Korea treaty and 2) focused most of their diplomatic energy on Takeshima/Japanese war reparations.
And the fact that these people - all political survivors with decades of experience climbing the lethally greasy pole of Chinese politics - feel confident enough to make these noises tells me that the tip-top levels of Chinese leadership are at least seriously considering such an outcome, if not actually forming a consensus around it.
EDIT: Remember that China doesn't mind having stronger neighbors - see how gently it treated Russia following the USSR's collapse, and how China essentially let Russia have Central Asia back for free without much of a contest in the early- mid-2000s. China hates having neighbors that gang up on it.
This is because China is now big enough to deal with any neighbors on a bilateral basis, but feels vulnerable when its neighbors all get together for a good 'ol fashioned round of Sinophobia.
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On April 12 2013 10:02 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2013 09:49 Derez wrote:On April 12 2013 09:21 FallDownMarigold wrote:On April 12 2013 07:33 Derez wrote:Pentagon Says Nuclear Missile Is in Grasp for North KoreaA new assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability conducted by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm has concluded for the first time, with “moderate confidence,” that the country has learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile. Keep in mind its from the same people that brought us 'nukes in iraq'. Ew, cringe. The same people who brought us 'nukes in iraq' you say? I wasn't aware Bush, Cheney, Wolfowitz & co. had reestablished the Pentagon, their administration, etc. Before you do a USA bash...check which President/administration is in power, just to keep things straight. I wasn't USA bashing, I was simply pointing out that the last time this organization made such a claim they were wrong. I'm aware leadership matters, but it's naive to think that with a leadership change alone the pentagon suddenly has no more political objectives of its own, or that there are no neo-conservative elements in the pentagon left at all. Next to that, small group decision making processes can always lead to bizarre outcomes, and I wouldn't take the word of 1 single intelligence organization when there has been no confirmation by others. Well, it is sort of disingenuous to say "1 single intelligence agency" when, in fact, the United States has perhaps the largest intelligence network of any nation in the world (save for maybe China) by at least an order of magnitude.
Only the DIA made that determination, the rest of the intelligence agencies don't necessarily agree with it. Different parts of the intelligence network come to different conclusions frequently as far as I'm aware so I don't see what's disingenous about it.
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@ Shady Sands
after starting one or a few skirmishes, NK could see itself overrun by US/SK from the south and CH from the north, but there is still an option for whoever will rule NK at that time (Kim his family <> older generals), to actually surrender their whole country to only one of those parties even if/when the other party already occupied some of NK.
a 'cordon sanitaire' would be pretty much (rendered) void/null then, right?. i mean sure, the other parties might not agree/recognize that surrender but it would still be 'legal'.
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EPT
