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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:18 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 03:08 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:06 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:58 oneofthem wrote:
this election is a bit more polarized than the last time around. racial bias is mostly implicit and unconscious. it makes certain kinds of criticism stick better, such as obama is for socialism, big government, redistribution etc. we can find many past presidents to the left of him on these very issues but why is it that he is the poster boy for policies that he does not support or at any rate has not carried out to the full measure.
there is a distinct sense that obama represents the revenge of the underclass. this is the paranoia that keeps tea partiers up at night.
many of the themes motivating the right may not be about his color, but they are only skin deep.
There is no doubt in my mind that race plays a role in some voters minds, but it is such a small fraction of the population that it's not really important. The whole "the right is racist" stereotype isn't correct. Are you limiting your analysis to conscious thought processes? Depends what you're discussing, but maybe. I mean, if you go into "subconscious racism", studies have shown there isn't a huge difference between the two parties. A majority of the country voted for Obama in '08, and a near majority of Republicans were behind Herman Cain (among a field of 5+ candidates). That's 75% of the population there that has demonstrated a perfect willingness to go with a black candidate. And certainly had Cain won the nomination, he would've received near unanimous Republican support. On that basis, there are very very few people who would deny someone a vote simply because of the skin color. That, to me, would be racism. What a lot of people confuse racism for, is a criticism of black American culture. That's not racism. Even Bill Cosby is critical of black American culture. If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist? Would they show the same bias if a picture of Carlton from The Fresh Prince was flashed on the screen? To me those are deep cultural questions and transcend mere skin color. the readiness to blame social problems affecting blacks on culture is a much bigger problem. you ever seriously looked at the harm of the drug trade including prison system?
on the cultural front, is britney spears that much better than [stereotypical black culture product]?
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On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:18 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 03:08 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:06 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:58 oneofthem wrote:
this election is a bit more polarized than the last time around. racial bias is mostly implicit and unconscious. it makes certain kinds of criticism stick better, such as obama is for socialism, big government, redistribution etc. we can find many past presidents to the left of him on these very issues but why is it that he is the poster boy for policies that he does not support or at any rate has not carried out to the full measure.
there is a distinct sense that obama represents the revenge of the underclass. this is the paranoia that keeps tea partiers up at night.
many of the themes motivating the right may not be about his color, but they are only skin deep.
There is no doubt in my mind that race plays a role in some voters minds, but it is such a small fraction of the population that it's not really important. The whole "the right is racist" stereotype isn't correct. Are you limiting your analysis to conscious thought processes? Depends what you're discussing, but maybe. I mean, if you go into "subconscious racism", studies have shown there isn't a huge difference between the two parties. A majority of the country voted for Obama in '08, and a near majority of Republicans were behind Herman Cain (among a field of 5+ candidates). That's 75% of the population there that has demonstrated a perfect willingness to go with a black candidate. And certainly had Cain won the nomination, he would've received near unanimous Republican support. On that basis, there are very very few people who would deny someone a vote simply because of the skin color. That, to me, would be racism. What a lot of people confuse racism for, is a criticism of black American culture. That's not racism. Even Bill Cosby is critical of black American culture. If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist? Would they show the same bias if a picture of Carlton from The Fresh Prince was flashed on the screen? To me those are a deep cultural questions and transcend mere skin color.
Again, pointing to Cain is not gonna cut it, because there is no way you can discount the possibility that large numbers of wealthy, white, conservative voters saw his abso-fucking-lutely stupid tax plan and thought "Let's get this guy into office; he's clearly a Booker T and not a W.E.B Dubois."
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I don't think supporting a black candidate really says anything interesting about racially based ideological content. It's far too obvious a symbol.
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On November 02 2012 02:42 BluePanther wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 02:40 TheTenthDoc wrote:On November 02 2012 02:26 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:09 oneofthem wrote:
seems to me that the most obvious and weighty problem with the polls is the fact that so few people respond to them. various correlations with "ability to sit through 30 minute poll on the phone", not sure which ones are ruling.
you get angry tea party people sitting through them, sure. but more educated and civic minded people have more patience with these as well. the polls are likely getting worse each and every election because of the failings of telephone as a communicative medium. lol, I was actually joking with staffers the other day about how I need to start up a business that somehow uses texting/emails to power a polling firm... Well if you just want some raw numbers you could start random-texting by hand. Probably even lower response rate than phone calls though due to wtf factor. Actually my logic is that you're more likely to get a response if it takes minimal work and time for the person to respond. Most people don't mind telling you who they are going to vote for, they hate when they get interrupted for 15 minutes to answer strings of questions. Clicking a button or texting back a single letter is less likely to turn someone away. I actually think texting would get you a higher response rate than phonecalls. But yeah, legality of it might be a little difficult, and you run into generational issues (not that the land line methods of today don't have the same problem).
Polls are trying to do too much right now. 30 minute phone calls, 50+ question phone surveys, are ridiculous for a pre-election poll. Anything that long should be done via mail so the respondent can fill it out at their leisure, which doesn't fit the pre-election polls' need for instant feedback.
I think they'd get better participation rates if they simply get the respondent's age/sex/race and perhaps education, then ask who they're voting for and how likely they are to vote (I understand the voter screen might be a few questions). That's no more than 10 questions total. END POLL. Or, after that, ask if they're willing to continue and then ask the detailed questions. (but keep the partial results if they're not)
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On November 02 2012 03:27 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:On November 02 2012 03:18 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 03:08 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:06 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:58 oneofthem wrote:
this election is a bit more polarized than the last time around. racial bias is mostly implicit and unconscious. it makes certain kinds of criticism stick better, such as obama is for socialism, big government, redistribution etc. we can find many past presidents to the left of him on these very issues but why is it that he is the poster boy for policies that he does not support or at any rate has not carried out to the full measure.
there is a distinct sense that obama represents the revenge of the underclass. this is the paranoia that keeps tea partiers up at night.
many of the themes motivating the right may not be about his color, but they are only skin deep.
There is no doubt in my mind that race plays a role in some voters minds, but it is such a small fraction of the population that it's not really important. The whole "the right is racist" stereotype isn't correct. Are you limiting your analysis to conscious thought processes? Depends what you're discussing, but maybe. I mean, if you go into "subconscious racism", studies have shown there isn't a huge difference between the two parties. A majority of the country voted for Obama in '08, and a near majority of Republicans were behind Herman Cain (among a field of 5+ candidates). That's 75% of the population there that has demonstrated a perfect willingness to go with a black candidate. And certainly had Cain won the nomination, he would've received near unanimous Republican support. On that basis, there are very very few people who would deny someone a vote simply because of the skin color. That, to me, would be racism. What a lot of people confuse racism for, is a criticism of black American culture. That's not racism. Even Bill Cosby is critical of black American culture. If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist? Would they show the same bias if a picture of Carlton from The Fresh Prince was flashed on the screen? To me those are a deep cultural questions and transcend mere skin color. Again, pointing to Cain is not gonna cut it, because there is no way you can discount the possibility that large numbers of wealthy, white, conservative voters saw his abso-fucking-lutely stupid tax plan and thought "Let's get this guy into office; he's clearly a Booker T and not a W.E.B Dubois."
See, but that's a cultural distinction. What they're interested in is a guy that has the same values as them, regardless of skin color. They don't like the idea of a revolutionary that is antagonistic towards the normal typical middle American lifestyle.
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On November 02 2012 03:32 jdsowa wrote:the normal typical middle American lifestyle.
what is that?
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On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:
If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist?
Yes.
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On November 02 2012 03:26 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:On November 02 2012 03:18 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 03:08 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:06 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:58 oneofthem wrote:
this election is a bit more polarized than the last time around. racial bias is mostly implicit and unconscious. it makes certain kinds of criticism stick better, such as obama is for socialism, big government, redistribution etc. we can find many past presidents to the left of him on these very issues but why is it that he is the poster boy for policies that he does not support or at any rate has not carried out to the full measure.
there is a distinct sense that obama represents the revenge of the underclass. this is the paranoia that keeps tea partiers up at night.
many of the themes motivating the right may not be about his color, but they are only skin deep.
There is no doubt in my mind that race plays a role in some voters minds, but it is such a small fraction of the population that it's not really important. The whole "the right is racist" stereotype isn't correct. Are you limiting your analysis to conscious thought processes? Depends what you're discussing, but maybe. I mean, if you go into "subconscious racism", studies have shown there isn't a huge difference between the two parties. A majority of the country voted for Obama in '08, and a near majority of Republicans were behind Herman Cain (among a field of 5+ candidates). That's 75% of the population there that has demonstrated a perfect willingness to go with a black candidate. And certainly had Cain won the nomination, he would've received near unanimous Republican support. On that basis, there are very very few people who would deny someone a vote simply because of the skin color. That, to me, would be racism. What a lot of people confuse racism for, is a criticism of black American culture. That's not racism. Even Bill Cosby is critical of black American culture. If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist? Would they show the same bias if a picture of Carlton from The Fresh Prince was flashed on the screen? To me those are deep cultural questions and transcend mere skin color. the readiness to blame social problems affecting blacks on culture is a much bigger problem. you ever seriously looked at the harm of the drug trade including prison system? on the cultural front, is britney spears that much better than [stereotypical black culture product]?
Well, it's plainly obvious that most of the problems with black American culture stem from slavery and past discrimination. But identifying that original cause doesn't help fix the problem. The problem is fixed by first acknowledging that the problem has to do with a lingering antagonism to mainstream values. Even if that antagonism was once justified, it is at the root of continued racial/cultural bias.
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Romney winning would definitely be Dewey vs Truman part 2, except that it wouldn't be a statement of the untrustworthiness of polls, but also of poll aggregators and prediction markets. Essentially, it would be a statement that elections are quantitatively unpredictable.
Sure Karl Rove, Fox News, etc. have qualitatively predicted Romney to win, but that's not really what I'm talking about here.
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On November 02 2012 03:33 sam!zdat wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:32 jdsowa wrote:the normal typical middle American lifestyle. what is that?
Going to and from work, taking the kids to soccer, buying towels at Target, falling asleep in front of the TV after watching idol. That's the majority experience of life in this country.
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On November 02 2012 02:13 XoXiDe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 01:58 nttea wrote:On November 02 2012 01:41 armada[sb] wrote:
xDaunt this forum is gonna eat you alive for your arrogancy if you're wrong. If you're right you should get some sort of icon. A prophetic one. Was pretty much prepared to laugh in xDaunts face a month or so ago... though something got stuck in my throat seeing these laters polls^^ it shouldn't even be a close race i swear! Obama is a piece of shit in my opinion because he promises change then does jack shit, right wing calls him radical in some fucking way even though his policies are like bush -0.00001 but how the fuck does voting romney in any way make sense when obama's problem is already being too right wing?! I obviously know nothing about people or politics....  Whether you like him or not, agree with his policies or not, Obama has done quite a lot of jack shit. If you think he hasn't done anything or changed anything you are uninformed. If you are from outside the U.S. I understand your concerns might be more international issues which really haven't changed much. I get the point you are referencing perhaps war policy and Bush era policies, and use of drones. However, the biggest jack shit was getting health care legislation passed, something that has been attempted for decades with no success, it's a historical achievement here in the U.S.. Whether you think it is good or bad is not the issue, he's done quite a lot of things. You also have to accept the reality that it takes two to tango and the Republicans haven't exactly helped him along the way. These last four years he has done things that will shape the long term future of the U.S.. Again, regardless if people think they will be good or not from their own point of views is a different matter, and people within the U.S. probably have different priorities than someone from another country looking in, such as health care, the economy, lgbt issues, immigration, energy, gun rights, so on and so forth.
Now i don't know everything obama has done, but assuming healthcare reform was his biggest thing? Jack shit in my opinion, so filled with compromises that the insurance companies probably can't wait for it to take full effect so they can earn even more money. Sure more people will get covered which is a good thing but i highly doubt it will keep you from getting robbed blind. Now you might claim he had to deal with obstructionist republicans but he wasn't pushing very hard for any real changes like single payer anyway. He even LOWERED the fucking taxes and republicans are crying like he's the black Lenin. The whole thing is surreal to me, Barack Obama should be the right wing alternative.
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On November 02 2012 03:35 jdsowa wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:33 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:32 jdsowa wrote:the normal typical middle American lifestyle. what is that? Going to and from work, taking the kids to soccer, buying towels at Target, falling asleep in front of the TV after watching idol. That's the majority experience of life in this country.
and you're advancing this set of attributes as sufficient condition for the good life?
edit:
On November 02 2012 03:35 jdsowa wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:26 oneofthem wrote:On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:On November 02 2012 03:18 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 03:08 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:06 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:58 oneofthem wrote:
this election is a bit more polarized than the last time around. racial bias is mostly implicit and unconscious. it makes certain kinds of criticism stick better, such as obama is for socialism, big government, redistribution etc. we can find many past presidents to the left of him on these very issues but why is it that he is the poster boy for policies that he does not support or at any rate has not carried out to the full measure.
there is a distinct sense that obama represents the revenge of the underclass. this is the paranoia that keeps tea partiers up at night.
many of the themes motivating the right may not be about his color, but they are only skin deep.
There is no doubt in my mind that race plays a role in some voters minds, but it is such a small fraction of the population that it's not really important. The whole "the right is racist" stereotype isn't correct. Are you limiting your analysis to conscious thought processes? Depends what you're discussing, but maybe. I mean, if you go into "subconscious racism", studies have shown there isn't a huge difference between the two parties. A majority of the country voted for Obama in '08, and a near majority of Republicans were behind Herman Cain (among a field of 5+ candidates). That's 75% of the population there that has demonstrated a perfect willingness to go with a black candidate. And certainly had Cain won the nomination, he would've received near unanimous Republican support. On that basis, there are very very few people who would deny someone a vote simply because of the skin color. That, to me, would be racism. What a lot of people confuse racism for, is a criticism of black American culture. That's not racism. Even Bill Cosby is critical of black American culture. If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist? Would they show the same bias if a picture of Carlton from The Fresh Prince was flashed on the screen? To me those are deep cultural questions and transcend mere skin color. the readiness to blame social problems affecting blacks on culture is a much bigger problem. you ever seriously looked at the harm of the drug trade including prison system? on the cultural front, is britney spears that much better than [stereotypical black culture product]? Well, it's plainly obvious that most of the problems with black American culture stem from slavery and past discrimination. But identifying that original cause doesn't help fix the problem. The problem is fixed by first acknowledging that the problem has to do with a lingering antagonism to mainstream values. Even if that antagonism was once justified, it is at the root of continued racial/cultural bias.
As a corollary to above, you should wonder whether or not there is a legitimate basis for antagonism toward "mainstream values."
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On November 02 2012 03:36 nttea wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 02:13 XoXiDe wrote:On November 02 2012 01:58 nttea wrote:On November 02 2012 01:41 armada[sb] wrote:
xDaunt this forum is gonna eat you alive for your arrogancy if you're wrong. If you're right you should get some sort of icon. A prophetic one. Was pretty much prepared to laugh in xDaunts face a month or so ago... though something got stuck in my throat seeing these laters polls^^ it shouldn't even be a close race i swear! Obama is a piece of shit in my opinion because he promises change then does jack shit, right wing calls him radical in some fucking way even though his policies are like bush -0.00001 but how the fuck does voting romney in any way make sense when obama's problem is already being too right wing?! I obviously know nothing about people or politics.... Whether you like him or not, agree with his policies or not, Obama has done quite a lot of jack shit. If you think he hasn't done anything or changed anything you are uninformed. If you are from outside the U.S. I understand your concerns might be more international issues which really haven't changed much. I get the point you are referencing perhaps war policy and Bush era policies, and use of drones. However, the biggest jack shit was getting health care legislation passed, something that has been attempted for decades with no success, it's a historical achievement here in the U.S.. Whether you think it is good or bad is not the issue, he's done quite a lot of things. You also have to accept the reality that it takes two to tango and the Republicans haven't exactly helped him along the way. These last four years he has done things that will shape the long term future of the U.S.. Again, regardless if people think they will be good or not from their own point of views is a different matter, and people within the U.S. probably have different priorities than someone from another country looking in, such as health care, the economy, lgbt issues, immigration, energy, gun rights, so on and so forth. Now i don't know everything obama has done, but assuming healthcare reform was his biggest thing? Jack shit in my opinion, so filled with compromises that the insurance companies probably can't wait for it to take full effect so they can earn even more money. Sure more people will get covered which is a good thing but i highly doubt it will keep you from getting robbed blind. Now you might claim he had to deal with obstructionist republicans but he wasn't pushing very hard for any real changes like single payer anyway. He even LOWERED the fucking taxes and republicans are crying like he's the black Lenin. The whole thing is surreal to me, Barack Obama should be the right wing alternative. this is why the ultimate voting is voting with your feet. i half expect a romney victory. i heard sweden has some nice philosophy departments.
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I'm about ready to emigrate. I still got 6 years here, though...
edit: really what I want is an independent west coast. Hail Cascadia!
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On November 02 2012 03:37 sam!zdat wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:35 jdsowa wrote:On November 02 2012 03:33 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:32 jdsowa wrote:the normal typical middle American lifestyle. what is that? Going to and from work, taking the kids to soccer, buying towels at Target, falling asleep in front of the TV after watching idol. That's the majority experience of life in this country. and you're advancing this set of attributes as sufficient condition for the good life?
A 'good life' is subjective. I'm merely saying these activities make up the existence of mainstream middle America. And that black culture takes an antagonistic stances towards that mainstream is what prevents complete social harmony. Now, it may be that desirable in some people's minds. Because if you shed that antagonism, then maybe you're shedding the black identity. That's a perfectly valid concern and a difficult point to balance.
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On November 02 2012 03:26 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:On November 02 2012 03:18 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 03:08 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:06 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:58 oneofthem wrote:
this election is a bit more polarized than the last time around. racial bias is mostly implicit and unconscious. it makes certain kinds of criticism stick better, such as obama is for socialism, big government, redistribution etc. we can find many past presidents to the left of him on these very issues but why is it that he is the poster boy for policies that he does not support or at any rate has not carried out to the full measure.
there is a distinct sense that obama represents the revenge of the underclass. this is the paranoia that keeps tea partiers up at night.
many of the themes motivating the right may not be about his color, but they are only skin deep.
There is no doubt in my mind that race plays a role in some voters minds, but it is such a small fraction of the population that it's not really important. The whole "the right is racist" stereotype isn't correct. Are you limiting your analysis to conscious thought processes? Depends what you're discussing, but maybe. I mean, if you go into "subconscious racism", studies have shown there isn't a huge difference between the two parties. A majority of the country voted for Obama in '08, and a near majority of Republicans were behind Herman Cain (among a field of 5+ candidates). That's 75% of the population there that has demonstrated a perfect willingness to go with a black candidate. And certainly had Cain won the nomination, he would've received near unanimous Republican support. On that basis, there are very very few people who would deny someone a vote simply because of the skin color. That, to me, would be racism. What a lot of people confuse racism for, is a criticism of black American culture. That's not racism. Even Bill Cosby is critical of black American culture. If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist? Would they show the same bias if a picture of Carlton from The Fresh Prince was flashed on the screen? To me those are deep cultural questions and transcend mere skin color. the readiness to blame social problems affecting blacks on culture is a much bigger problem. you ever seriously looked at the harm of the drug trade including prison system? on the cultural front, is britney spears that much better than [stereotypical black culture product]?
Certain aspects of black culture have been extremely destructive, such as the 'acting white' insult.
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On November 02 2012 03:40 jdsowa wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:37 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:35 jdsowa wrote:On November 02 2012 03:33 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:32 jdsowa wrote:the normal typical middle American lifestyle. what is that? Going to and from work, taking the kids to soccer, buying towels at Target, falling asleep in front of the TV after watching idol. That's the majority experience of life in this country. and you're advancing this set of attributes as sufficient condition for the good life? A 'good life' is subjective.
Oh, don't get me started.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On November 02 2012 03:40 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 03:26 oneofthem wrote:On November 02 2012 03:23 jdsowa wrote:On November 02 2012 03:18 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 03:08 sam!zdat wrote:On November 02 2012 03:06 BluePanther wrote:On November 02 2012 02:58 oneofthem wrote:
this election is a bit more polarized than the last time around. racial bias is mostly implicit and unconscious. it makes certain kinds of criticism stick better, such as obama is for socialism, big government, redistribution etc. we can find many past presidents to the left of him on these very issues but why is it that he is the poster boy for policies that he does not support or at any rate has not carried out to the full measure.
there is a distinct sense that obama represents the revenge of the underclass. this is the paranoia that keeps tea partiers up at night.
many of the themes motivating the right may not be about his color, but they are only skin deep.
There is no doubt in my mind that race plays a role in some voters minds, but it is such a small fraction of the population that it's not really important. The whole "the right is racist" stereotype isn't correct. Are you limiting your analysis to conscious thought processes? Depends what you're discussing, but maybe. I mean, if you go into "subconscious racism", studies have shown there isn't a huge difference between the two parties. A majority of the country voted for Obama in '08, and a near majority of Republicans were behind Herman Cain (among a field of 5+ candidates). That's 75% of the population there that has demonstrated a perfect willingness to go with a black candidate. And certainly had Cain won the nomination, he would've received near unanimous Republican support. On that basis, there are very very few people who would deny someone a vote simply because of the skin color. That, to me, would be racism. What a lot of people confuse racism for, is a criticism of black American culture. That's not racism. Even Bill Cosby is critical of black American culture. If someone shows a subconscious bias against a race that disproportionately commits crimes is that racist? Would they show the same bias if a picture of Carlton from The Fresh Prince was flashed on the screen? To me those are deep cultural questions and transcend mere skin color. the readiness to blame social problems affecting blacks on culture is a much bigger problem. you ever seriously looked at the harm of the drug trade including prison system? on the cultural front, is britney spears that much better than [stereotypical black culture product]? Certain aspects of black culture have been extremely destructive, such as the 'acting white' insult.
you are certainly right on that one, although obviously sourced from communal identity against 'the system.' nevertheless, the persistence of this sentiment seems to immediately end when a black guy finds a good job.
so the solution is not to blame them for buying into a hsitorically justified and communally uniting narrative, it is to provide real opportunities and resources.
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On November 02 2012 03:39 sam!zdat wrote:
I'm about ready to emigrate. I still got 6 years here, though...
At the moment Norway is the hoot if you want a job, but any americans traveling there gets a cultural shock. For a town/city american Germany Australia, New Zealand and Canada are the most obvious places to immigrate to. Good luck with finding your way! 
Is it Joss Wheadon making a good point for the Zomney apocalypse?
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On November 02 2012 03:21 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 01:41 armada[sb] wrote:
xDaunt this forum is gonna eat you alive for your arrogancy if you're wrong. If you're right you should get some sort of icon. A prophetic one. Let's make something clear here. There would be absolutely nothing to praise about xDaunt's analysis if Romney ended up getting elected. Back when the Republican primary was still going on, xDaunt actually predicted Rick Perry would beat Romney and win the primary, and that he would then beat Obama in the general election. When it became clear Perry had absolutely zero chance of winning the primary, let alone the election, xDaunt switched horses to the obvious Republican candidate, namely Romney. He hasn't actually put forward any kind of valid analysis behind his choice (other than simplistic assertions like "Americans are tired of Obama's failed policies"), or tried to look objectively at the dynamics behind the race and the shifting momentums. Picking the winner does not make one's analysis right. Paul the Octopus used to be able to pick winners pretty often, but I'm not sure it would have had something interesting to say about his choices. edit: and btw, if Obama wins, that won't automatically validate the arguments of people who thought he would win either.
I'm not sure that I affirmatively stated one candidate would win the republican party so much as I pointed out who the frontrunners were at various points. When Perry entered the fray, I named him the frontrunner. Rick Perry would have won the nomination had he not self-destructed in the debates. In fact, when everyone talking about his "best" debate performance as the one that would turn his fortunes around, I stuck a fork him in him because I knew that his performance was horrible and would be perceived as horrible by the electorate.
As for my presidential pick prediction, I stated that Romney would beat Obama and win big. I also stated that I would reevaluate my prediction after each debate. In short, I didn't see any reason to change my prediction after the debates.
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EPT
