|
|
On March 10 2014 01:35 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2014 01:08 xM(Z wrote: if the unlikely were to happen, you'd have 5% - 10% of europeans fighting for the russians, to crush the western imperialism. if you think the thousands that fight now in Syria for the rebels is bad well, think again ... to crush the imperialism trying to stop the russians from crushing their country? i guess flawless logic you don't use logic to chose between 2 evils. you just go with the one you perceive as the lesser one.
|
|
On March 10 2014 00:55 BronzeKnee wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2014 22:43 Ghanburighan wrote:I got my hands on some insider information. I can't reveal the source nor verify it in any way, so take it as you will. 1) The West is taking the crisis in Ukraine much more seriously than the public discourse reveals with strong reactions not only diplomatically but also with regard to military preparation and intelligence work. 2) While the diplomatic efforts in the EU appear restrained, there's a great deal more willingness among countries to act. This is especially true for France despite the Mistral deal. Even Germany's Merkel made diplomatic moves well beyond considered in their comfort zone. Note this EPP summit announcement by Merkel that has gone unnoticed. 3) The Ukrainians are deploying their troops to the borders of Crimea (at least every bit of machinery that still works, despite not being turned on since WWII - but Russia's troops there are also in a sorry state). Edit: Despite what they might say.4) One of the main indicators for Russia's actions to follow is the Foreign Exchange reserves of the Russian central bank. The first day of trading (Monday), they lost 2% of their reserves. Yet, it has not been reported how much has been spent last week. There are some estimates around 15% but I can't find any accurate data. 5) A lot of people who have not slept much for almost a month are making decisions which will decide the fate of a great many people. Pessimism is warranted. Yet, it's unlikely this will become a shooting war, unless the Ukrainians decide so themselves. *** Asked by the BBC's Europe editor, Gavin Hewitt, what would happen if Russian troops went beyond the Black Sea peninsula to enter "mainland" eastern Ukraine, Hague said: "There would be far reaching trade, economic and financial consequences. It would bring the great danger of a real shooting conflict. There is no doubt about that." Source. Regardless of your "sources" most of what you've said pretty obvious. Of course the West is preparing for and going over all their options, including the unlikely military options. Most western nations have probably get going over scenarios for a Russian invasion of Ukraine (and every other country around Russia) for years. And of course Ukraine is gearing up for war, they have been invaded! This is so sad for the people of Crimea. So sad for Ukraine. Ukraine had every right to resist the invasion. And if they had known the West would have supported them, I believe they would have. Too bad the West is indecisive, weak, and feeble minded. We know what has to happen. But we aren't willing to risk anything to achieve it. And therefore, we let the bully win. All the political presence and might of democracy that was paid for so dearly by millions of live in World War II is washed away by people too scared to do what is right. Or as FDR said "if their freedom is taken away, our freedom is not secure." Not a single person should have their freedom taken away in 2014, and if they do, the whole world should do whatever it takes to guarantee it. It is really sad. "The Spirit of man has awakened The Soul of man has gone forth Grant us the wisdom and the vision to comprehend the greatness of man's Spirit that suffers and endures so hugely for a goal beyond his own brief span We are all of us children of Earth Grant us that simple knowledge If our brothers are oppressed, then we are oppressed If they hunger, we hunger If their freedom is taken away, our freedom is not secure Grant us a common faith, that man shall know bread and peace That he shall know justice and righteousness, Freedom and security, an equal opportunity, and an equal chance to do his best, not only in our own lands, but throughout the world. And in that faith, let us march, march toward the clean world, our hands can make. Amen" - Franklin D. Roosevelt - June 14, 1942
What are you talking about freedom taken away? So the whole worlds needs to unite and fight the americans who take the freedom of thousands of muslims every day? The world isnt black and white. You do realize the majority of crimeans are russians? And thanks for that roosevelt quote we really need some religion in this mess so it turns even worse.
|
On March 10 2014 00:28 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2014 00:19 SilentchiLL wrote:On March 10 2014 00:01 zeo wrote:On March 09 2014 22:37 -Archangel- wrote:On March 09 2014 22:26 Acertos wrote: The longer it goes, the worse the propagandas and tensions get. At least I'm happy that fellow TLers have stopped advocating Putin's madness. There was only propaganda here, and those decided to quit once they figured out we are not stupid to fall for it. Who decided to quit? The usual suspects are still here. He probably ment the russians who basically repeated Putin's official opinion in broken english. Don't really see how someone's grasp of the English somehow means that their opinion is wrong. Everybody has a right to their own opinion, makes for a better thread than the same 10 circlejerker sockpuppets patting each other on the back and saying 'good job, look at how intelectual and modern our canned opinions are'. edit: people should be more tollarant and respect diversity of opinions, that is how progress happens.
I don't really see how you can possibly think that the bolded part of your post has much to do with mine, I stated what they did, I didn't judge them.
|
On March 10 2014 00:59 Go0g3n wrote: IMO, Putin is buying time, I am very much looking forward to March 16-17th.
Here's what i think is going to happen:
1. On March 16th Crimea will vote to join Russia, but will be rejected by the Russian parliament, however, much like with Ossetia, it will be acknowledged as a separate state or autonomy or whatever, and provided financial and military aid.
2. The new gov-t will use the first wave of financial aid (~4bn $ from US, EU etc) to delay drastic spending cuts and price hikes until the May elections. The real game will begin when spending cuts and price hikes come into play, because, as far as I understand, they will affect social security, utilities, i.e. "real people".
3. Even if the EU is truly supportive of the new Ukrainian gov-t and freedom and blah... I am quire sure, that they won't be as supportive of cheaper Ukrainian products flooding into the EU. However, I did not research the benefits of the DCFTA closely enough to measure potential benefits or a lack thereof.
4. Unless the new Ukrainian gov-t decides to use the military to "get Crimea back" or at least to overthrow the Crimean gov-t, there is not going to be any shooting or Russian troops invading the "mainland". However, if military scenario was to take place, it will be over in less than a week in the same manner as the Georgian war: Russian troops are not going to advance further, but will destroy pretty much the whole military infrastructure. 1 and 4 seems spot on. 2 can be a real problem, but as far as I heard they have already started working on the first pension reforms (source). I see 3 as a transitional issue. EU is putting up a lot of loans to improve ukrainian infrastructure and is lobbying industry to lend money for ukrainian industry to reach western standards. In the short and medium terms, the austerity will be a very painful process.
|
Russian Federation410 Posts
1 and 4 seems spot on. 2 can be a real problem, but as far as I heard they have already started working on the first pension reforms ( source). I see 3 as a transitional issue. EU is putting up a lot of loans to improve ukrainian infrastructure and is lobbying industry to lend money for ukrainian industry to reach western standards. In the short and medium terms, the austerity will be a very painful process.
As far as I researched, the average utility bill in the Ukraine is around $68 , a $160 pension barely leaves $100 after everything is paid off. I am not sure how that can be cut at all.
|
|
good thing opposition et al have clearly distanced themselves from the fascists in their ranks.
|
On March 10 2014 02:07 Go0g3n wrote:Show nested quote +1 and 4 seems spot on. 2 can be a real problem, but as far as I heard they have already started working on the first pension reforms ( source). I see 3 as a transitional issue. EU is putting up a lot of loans to improve ukrainian infrastructure and is lobbying industry to lend money for ukrainian industry to reach western standards. In the short and medium terms, the austerity will be a very painful process. As far as I researched, the average utility bill in the Ukraine is around $68 , a $160 pension barely leaves $100 after everything is paid off. I am not sure how that can be cut at all. It is for a rather large apartment for a single person (85 m2). Rent per month of Apartment (1 bedroom) Outside of Centre 261.37 $ also seems to be hard to support at Average Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) 373.90 $. There needs to be sizable subsidies, huge wage gaps or something alike going around for those numbers to work out.
Edit: Oh people are obviously living together, which will make things a little better in that context, but the cost of food and clothes still makes it very hard to sustain with these numbers.
|
On March 10 2014 01:54 radiatoren wrote:the first pension reforms ( source). . It's only for working people and it wouldn't be lower than minimum pension.
|
***
Another Snyder article:
As Putin sat slouched in his chair at his press conference, shifting between clever one-liners and contradictory constructions, he seemed to be struggling to reconcile tactics and ideology. On the one hand, he has been an extremely good tactician, far more nimble and ruthless than almost anyone with whom he deals. He carried off his plan in Crimea with panache. He broke all the rules in an act of violence that should have opened a space for the true world, the world he wants, the glorious Russian gathering of Russian lands and peoples. Yet dramatic action did not summon the envisioned new reality to life. Ukraine did not reveal itself to be a Russian land unhappily and temporarily ruled by a few fascists whose coup could be undone. It looks instead like a place where the revolutionary mood has been consolidated by a foreign invasion. As the chief rabbi of Ukraine put it a few days ago: “There were many differences of opinion throughout the revolution, but today all that is gone.” He continued: “We’re faced by an outside threat called Russia. It’s brought everyone together.” There are now protests against the Russian occupation throughout the country, even in the south and east, where most people watch Russian television and where the economy is closely linked to Russia. Ukrainians who just a few days ago were in conflict with one another over their own revolution are now protesting together under the same flag. There have been violent clashes, as for example in Kharkiv, but these have been caused by busloads of Russians brought from across the border. It seems unlikely that the beatings of Ukrainian students by Russian “tourists” (as the Ukrainians, with typical humor, call them) will lead Ukrainians to think that they are Russian compatriots. The unmarked uniforms of the Russian special forces in Crimea tell this story all by themselves. Theirs was supposed to be the rapid gesture that changed the world. But with each day that passes those ski masks and unmarked uniforms look instead like symbols of shame, hesitation, lack of responsibility—indeed denial of reality. In the Crimean sunshine black ops begin to look a little gray. It must have been enjoyable for Putin to run an operation in which his troops could pretend to be from nowhere. But it was oddly childish of him to deny, in his press conference, what everyone knew: that the troops were Russians. It was as though he wanted the tactical play to last as long as possible, to dream just a bit longer. Ukrainian sailors in Crimea answered him quite sharply, in brisk Russian sentences much better formulated than Putin’s own. The costs of what Russia has done are very real, for Europe, for Ukraine, and for Russia itself. Russian propaganda has elegantly provided a rationale for Russian tactics and articulately defined a Russian dream for Ukraine. But in the end propaganda is all that unites the tactics and the dream, and that unity turns out to be wishful. There is no actual policy, no strategy, just a talented and tortured tyrant oscillating between mental worlds that are connected only by a tissue of lies. Putin faces a choice: use far more violence, in the hope that another surge will finally make the dream come true, or seek an exit in which he can claim some victory—which would be wise but deflating. He appears to feel the weight of this choice. Source.
***
|
LoL they are just as bad as Putin.Ignoring what the half of population thinks and signing agreements with government that wasnt elected on democratic elections.Wow very democratic.And EU supports this ? WTF Is this serious news ?
|
https://netzpolitik.org/2014/jung-naiv-in-der-ukraine-erste-station-lviv/
I haven't watched the videos yet, so I don't know which direction it is going but those are interviews by a "free journalist". He is not aligned to any press or side! Could be interesting! Watching now...
PS: Don't worry, the videos are not in German! (English, Russian-Translator)
//edit: Ok: first video is with a journalist, that was on the Maiden from the beginning. He talks about, why they have an EU flag on their city hall in Lviv and that they want into the NATO. Also he mentioned the problem that many people have with the far-right-wing people. Also he says, that many people even here in western Ukraine still support the East/Crimea, because they want to stay one country!
|
On March 10 2014 04:18 Liman wrote:LoL they are just as bad as Putin.Ignoring what the half of population thinks and signing agreements with government that wasnt elected on democratic elections.Wow very democratic.And EU supports this ? WTF Is this serious news ?
Err, the government currently in power is supported by 80% of the elected parliament... And the association agreement only provides a framework for working with the EU on matters including the upcoming bailout, it's not like they're joining the EU with this.
|
On March 10 2014 02:26 Ghanburighan wrote:+ Show Spoiler +https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/442698163691196417 Please. tell me that is a photoshop.
|
On March 10 2014 04:42 Godwrath wrote:Please. tell me that is a photoshop.
I'm afraid not, or if it is, it was covered by at least 5 different news sources.
|
On March 10 2014 04:38 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2014 04:18 Liman wrote:LoL they are just as bad as Putin.Ignoring what the half of population thinks and signing agreements with government that wasnt elected on democratic elections.Wow very democratic.And EU supports this ? WTF Is this serious news ? Err, the government currently in power is supported by 80% of the elected parliament... And the association agreement only provides a framework for working with the EU on matters including the upcoming bailout, it's not like they're joining the EU with this. That shit is just provoking pro russian population even more,not to mention russia. Those guys in Kiev are acting like idiots,instead of tying to calm the situation down and open some kind of negotiations with pro russian people,they do as they (and west) wish. Instead of making national unity government which would represent all ukranians until the elections they just ignore 20 million people. If they keep doing that i dont see how this can end well for anyone.
|
On March 10 2014 00:59 Go0g3n wrote: IMO, Putin is buying time, I am very much looking forward to March 16-17th.
Here's what i think is going to happen:
1. On March 16th Crimea will vote to join Russia, but will be rejected by the Russian parliament, however, much like with Ossetia, it will be acknowledged as a separate state or autonomy or whatever, and provided financial and military aid.
2. The new gov-t will use the first wave of financial aid (~4bn $ from US, EU etc) to delay drastic spending cuts and price hikes until the May elections. The real game will begin when spending cuts and price hikes come into play, because, as far as I understand, they will affect social security, utilities, i.e. "real people".
3. Even if the EU is truly supportive of the new Ukrainian gov-t and freedom and blah... I am quire sure, that they won't be as supportive of cheaper Ukrainian products flooding into the EU. However, I did not research the benefits of the DCFTA closely enough to measure potential benefits or a lack thereof.
4. Unless the new Ukrainian gov-t decides to use the military to "get Crimea back" or at least to overthrow the Crimean gov-t, there is not going to be any shooting or Russian troops invading the "mainland". However, if military scenario was to take place, it will be over in less than a week in the same manner as the Georgian war: Russian troops are not going to advance further, but will destroy pretty much the whole military infrastructure. But the problem with 1 is that as long as there are TV crews in the West showing Russians in the Ukrainian Army resisting Russians in the Russian from taking over Ukrainian bases there is no way to move them. I think Putin severely underestimated their resolve -- which makes this unlike Ossetia or Abkhazia. Which is why I assume the local thugs are beating up foreign crews and local hotels are kicking them out. If there are pictures of unarmed Russian Ukrainians getting murdered on television by 'local peace keepers' then whatever they gain in Crimea they lose in the East. Especially if the Kyiv government is smart enough to -- whenever and however many of them get out -- to host a giant 'heroes of ukraine' parade for all the soldiers down there.
|
On March 10 2014 04:50 Liman wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2014 04:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On March 10 2014 04:18 Liman wrote:LoL they are just as bad as Putin.Ignoring what the half of population thinks and signing agreements with government that wasnt elected on democratic elections.Wow very democratic.And EU supports this ? WTF Is this serious news ? Err, the government currently in power is supported by 80% of the elected parliament... And the association agreement only provides a framework for working with the EU on matters including the upcoming bailout, it's not like they're joining the EU with this. That shit is just provoking pro russian population even more,not to mention russia. Those guys in Kiev are acting like idiots,instead of tying to calm the situation down and open some kind of negotiations with pro russian people,they do as they (and west) wish. Instead of making national unity government which would represent all ukranians until the elections they just ignore 20 million people. If they keep doing that i dont see how this can end well for anyone. Why the hell should they negotiate with the country who just invaded them?
|
On March 10 2014 04:50 Liman wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2014 04:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On March 10 2014 04:18 Liman wrote:LoL they are just as bad as Putin.Ignoring what the half of population thinks and signing agreements with government that wasnt elected on democratic elections.Wow very democratic.And EU supports this ? WTF Is this serious news ? Err, the government currently in power is supported by 80% of the elected parliament... And the association agreement only provides a framework for working with the EU on matters including the upcoming bailout, it's not like they're joining the EU with this. That shit is just provoking pro russian population even more,not to mention russia. Those guys in Kiev are acting like idiots,instead of tying to calm the situation down and open some kind of negotiations with pro russian people,they do as they (and west) wish. How can they open negotiations with people occupying their country? This is a serious question. Russian news has accused them of being fascist junta jew killers who instigated the maidan sniper fire. "Okay we will reject the EU talks, lose the billions of dollars that you also will not provide to us and go through an economic collapse, thats our compromise, and your compromise is you just call us a junta and drop the fascist jew killer part okay?"
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/08/ukraine-russian-troops-crimea-kiev
For those inside the bases, the psychological effects are hard to take. At Bakhchisarai, where last week Russian soldiers surrounded the base, there is now an uneasy calm. The Russians, who told the Ukrainians they should defect either to serve "the people of Crimea" or better still the Russian army, have now left. Last Tuesday at 10pm, the Russian soldiers drove off from the base, and have not been back. The men inside have been watching the news, talking to friends in other bases and waiting to see if the Russians come back and attempt to storm the base.
Yesterday music was blaring out in the courtyard as a tattered Ukrainian flag fluttered in the breeze. A small number of the men were allowed out of the base to spend some time with their families, given that it was International Women's Day.
"It's written in all the textbooks that during a time of military action, the first three or four days are the hardest, and after that you adapt," said Vladimir Dokuchayev, deputy commander of the base. "That is more or less what has happened. We are getting used to the situation."
At the beginning, he said, some of the rank and file left the base, begged to do so by friends and family. In the past few days, however, nobody had left.
There is frustration at the bases at Kiev's failure to take more decisive action. A Ukrainian military source in Sevastopol said: "There's a feeling that in Kiev they are paralysed: they don't want to believe that this is happening, and they just don't know what to do. They are hoping they will wake up and find this will all have gone away – that there will be a miracle. They are not doing anything."
He added: "Can you imagine if there was just one American soldier stranded somewhere and being assaulted by enemies? The US government would mount a massive campaign to save him. We have thousands of soldiers stranded and they have been abandoned by our government, completely abandoned." Kyiv needs to get more serious in providing psychological support to these guys. This is their biggest fuck if they lose these heroes not only to Russian aggression but to bitterness too.
|
|
|
|