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L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On September 27 2017 10:11 Starlightsun wrote: This is what amazes me about Larva. Losing over and over to Flash must have been like some kind of Dragon Ball Z training. If you can stick it out and I can only imagine it's really good for you. Depends on whether you let losing discourage you. | ||
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RealityIsKing
613 Posts
On September 27 2017 07:18 _Animus_ wrote: I dont follow streams much, but that might be the case. Its the same scenario how flash beat Soulkey in ASL. Maybe larva takes same approach. And its the best IMO because you cant depend to all in flash, timing attacks dont work. Shine was the prime example, he hit the wall every time with his agressive builds even tho they worked so great against everyone else. Soulkey macro style was the closest to beating Flash in a zvt series. I think Flash does this thing where Zergs focus SUPER hard to getting rid of the initial bio and clearing mines on the map then don't have enough units/gas to make scourges at home and then JUST when you think you have enough map advantage on the map and can safely roam around the map with 4 base Ultra ling defiler, BAM! Dropship in your main, you have to move back all of your stuff to defend properly because of how good Flash micros them to deal maximum dmg. And when you make scourges, the dropships are long gone and you just lost map presence and you are stuck in base preparing for the next drop. | ||
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Letmelose
Korea (South)3227 Posts
On September 27 2017 10:02 L_Master wrote: Larva only really made the jump sometime in the last six months. It wasn't until May that the Larva progress report thread was even made. Larva one year ago was nothing special, it was a dramatic jump starting towards the beginning of this year and continuing till now. This is the first round of ASL we have seen with a Larva that is actually "good". And make no mistake, the Larva of stream is exceptionally good. Much better than EffOrt. Larva is CREAMING everyone not named FlaSh including Last. His last two months he is over 75% WR against Last. Over 60% against Bisu. Same cannot be said for Effort. Or anyone else. FlaSh is FlaSh, and still does well vs Larva (i believe around 60% in spon matches). I won't say Larva is going to win, but in my mind there is no question Larva is by FAR the best chance for a zerg ASL title. Lol. Look, EffOrt is damn good, and one of my favorite zergs...but he isn't on the level of Larva in ZvT or ZvP at all. I really wanted Larva and EffOrt through for zerg chances, but Larva over EffOrt gives us a much greater chance of a zerg victory than anyone else. Larva is a top level zerg player, but I think you are being very selective towards Larva here, by generalizing his overall performance from his games versus Last. Sponsored match statistiscs from August 2017 ~ September 2017 Larva versus Flash: 11-29 (27.5%) Larva versus Bisu: 13-11 (54.17%) Larva versus Last: 21-6 (77.78%) EffOrt versus Flash: 19-21 (47.5%) EffOrt versus Bisu: 8-5 (61.54%) EffOrt versus Last: 8-17 (32%) The only thing Larva is on another level from EffOrt is his ability to defeat Last. The part about Larva being much better than EffOrt can only be applied to his games versus Last, and the rest is a fabrication. Larva does crush inferior opposition without mercy, but an in-form EffOrt has guile and finesse to his game that Larva does not yet possess, and that is why a lot of people, including myself, thought EffOrt would have the best chance to bring down Flash. In the words of Flash himself: "When EffOrt is on crazy-mode, even I cannot stop him." | ||
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RealityIsKing
613 Posts
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L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On September 27 2017 10:52 Letmelose wrote: Larva is a top level zerg player, but I think you are being very selective towards Larva here, by generalizing his overall performance from his games versus Last. Sponsored match statistiscs from August 2017 ~ September 2017 Larva versus Flash: 11-29 (27.5%) Larva versus Bisu: 13-11 (54.17%) Larva versus Last: 21-6 (77.78%) EffOrt versus Flash: 19-21 (47.5%) EffOrt versus Bisu: 8-5 (61.54%) EffOrt versus Last: 8-17 (32%) The only thing Larva is on another level from EffOrt is his ability to defeat Last. The part about Larva being much better than EffOrt can only be applied to his games versus Last, and the rest is a fabrication. Haven't had a chance to say it, but I absolutely love the consistent pieces you've put out over the past months breaking down historical BW stats in all kinds of interesting ways. Some of the most enjoyable reading on TL in quite some time. Your numbers are different than mine, and I certainly won't dispute them. You put 100x the thought and search into it than I do, though it's clear I had in my head a different number set than you. Statistically, I doubt you can draw any conclusions from that sample size. Without calculating it, I'd be willing to bet it's not possible to say, with statistical significance, from last two month spon matches that EffOrt does better against Bisu or FlaSh than Larva. In fact, there is a good chance you can't even say Larva does better against Last than EffOrt does (though given the more dramatic swings and WR difference for both players their is a chance that conclusion could be drawn). The main point here is it's not really possible to make a statistical claim of Larva>EffOrt or EffOrt>Larva. Historical performance, or even ASL performance it's no question that EffOrt >> Larva. However, Larva has improved rapidly and dramatically since the beginning of this year, which renders the historical value of less relevance. It takes time to accrue results if you just recently went from mediocre to exceptional. All of which means the only measure of who is a better player comes from that subjective sense of "feel" based on gameplay. I watch almost exclusively EffOrt and Larva FPVoDs on Korhal these days, and my perceptive sense is that Larva is stronger than EffOrt, and by noticeable amount, especially when he is "on" and not tilting or playing super tired. I'm not convinced this doesn't impact the quality of some of his spon matches as well. Mechanically, they are both excellent players, and I don't think you could easily put ones mechanics above the others. Larva's good games are...well, good. Damn good. EffOrt's win's it feels like he gets heavily from early damage or wins with clever moves (something EffOrt is VERY good at). Larva though gives me the sense of playing ZvT on a new level; he plays it differently than other zergs and is the only one I can think of that has consistent success in the management games...where when he reaches that point he wins more often than he loses. As others have pointed out, many of his FlaSh losses come from dropship issues, and with better awareness that can be shut down. Fixing that could further catapult Larva's ZvT prowess. It's all of that taken together than make Larva seem like a much better candidate to take down Flash than EffOrt is. He's got some weak points, but I think his overall ability to play ZvT is better than EffOrts, and indeed any other zerg. Drop Larva off in an equal position with terran 15' into the game and I think Larva is favored against any terran, FlaSh included. I couldn't say the same for EffOrt. That's, for me, what makes Larva such an exciting player with such promise. EffOrt is where he is at. A strong contender with fantastic tactics and mechanics to back it up. He is capable of taking down players like FlaSh in series play, but it's a 1 in 10, or 1 in 20 type of scenario; but he is a "what you see, what you get" type of player. He isn't doing anything or developing anything (or indeed even playing enough) that you expect any likely breakthroughs. Larva is a guy playing a metric shitton of BW, improving daily, and developing a long term, successful way of playing ZvT, one that threatens the upper hand at the long term management game that FlaSh has so long held in lockdown. There's a ton of hype surrounding Larva, but it's justified. In Larva there is a potential for long term ZvT success. I don't see that from any other zerg playing. | ||
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L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On September 27 2017 11:09 RealityIsKing wrote: ^Poor Jaedong, not even mentioned with Flash and Bisu. I'd be kinda curious to see the stats, but from what I understand his performance right now really isn't that impressive. I'm sure it's still good, but from the way people talk it doesn't sound like he is seeing the success that guys like Larva or EffOrt are seeing. | ||
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Letmelose
Korea (South)3227 Posts
On September 27 2017 11:21 L_Master wrote: Haven't had a chance to say it, but I absolutely love the consistent pieces you've put out over the past months breaking down historical BW stats in all kinds of interesting ways. Some of the most enjoyable reading on TL in quite some time. Your numbers are different than mine, and I certainly won't dispute them. You put 100x the thought and search into it than I do, though it's clear I had in my head a different number set than you. Statistically, I doubt you can draw any conclusions from that sample size. Without calculating it, I'd be willing to bet it's not possible to say, with statistical significance, from last two month spon matches that EffOrt does better against Bisu or FlaSh than Larva. In fact, there is a good chance you can't even say Larva does better against Last than EffOrt does (though given the more dramatic swings and WR difference for both players their is a chance that conclusion could be drawn). The main point here is it's not really possible to make a statistical claim of Larva>EffOrt or EffOrt>Larva. Historical performance, or even ASL performance it's no question that EffOrt >> Larva. However, Larva has improved rapidly and dramatically since the beginning of this year, which renders the historical value of less relevance. It takes time to accrue results if you just recently went from mediocre to exceptional. All of which means the only measure of who is a better player comes from that subjective sense of "feel" based on gameplay. I watch almost exclusively EffOrt and Larva FPVoDs on Korhal these days, and my perceptive sense is that Larva is stronger than EffOrt, and by noticeable amount, especially when he is "on" and not tilting or playing super tired. I'm not convinced this doesn't impact the quality of some of his spon matches as well. Mechanically, they are both excellent players, and I don't think you could easily put ones mechanics above the others. Larva's good games are...well, good. Damn good. EffOrt's win's it feels like he gets heavily from early damage or wins with clever moves (something EffOrt is VERY good at). Larva though gives me the sense of playing ZvT on a new level; he plays it differently than other zergs and is the only one I can think of that has consistent success in the management games...where when he reaches that point he wins more often than he loses. As others have pointed out, many of his FlaSh losses come from dropship issues, and with better awareness that can be shut down. Fixing that could further catapult Larva's ZvT prowess. It's all of that taken together than make Larva seem like a much better candidate to take down Flash than EffOrt is. He's got some weak points, but I think his overall ability to play ZvT is better than EffOrts, and indeed any other zerg. Drop Larva off in an equal position with terran 15' into the game and I think Larva is favored against any terran, FlaSh included. I couldn't say the same for EffOrt. That's, for me, what makes Larva such an exciting player with such promise. EffOrt is where he is at. A strong contender with fantastic tactics and mechanics to back it up. He is capable of taking down players like FlaSh in series play, but it's a 1 in 10, or 1 in 20 type of scenario; but he is a "what you see, what you get" type of player. He isn't doing anything or developing anything (or indeed even playing enough) that you expect any likely breakthroughs. Larva is a guy playing a metric shitton of BW, improving daily, and developing a long term, successful way of playing ZvT, one that threatens the upper hand at the long term management game that FlaSh has so long held in lockdown. There's a ton of hype surrounding Larva, but it's justified. In Larva there is a potential for long term ZvT success. I don't see that from any other zerg playing. This is my personal take on it, Larva is the best at standard games. EffOrt thrives under chaos, when his wits and delicate mastery over his units can be maximized. The problem is, Larva's standard game is better suited for crushing inferior opposition, and I personally prefered EffOrt's chances against Flash in particular. The most promising thing about Larva is his youth, and his level of determination to improve. However, as of today, I still prefer EffOrt over Larva. I would agree with the vast majority of the points you've made, but not when it comes to who is the harder opposition for Flash as of now. It doesn't matter how strong Larva's fundamentals are if it isn't strong enough to take down Flash on a consistent basis. As unreliable as EffOrt's approach to defeating Flash tends to be, it proved to be more reliable than Larva's approach thus far. | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
On September 27 2017 03:55 [AS]Rattus wrote: esportsjohn not bitching around all the time anymore? watched one stream a few weeks ago where he basically talked about the superiority of sc2 the whole tournament. Wait what? If anything, I was probably bitching about the superiority of BW. I haven't played sc2 in years lol. | ||
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darktreb
United States3016 Posts
Flash has always been a guy who thinks 10 games ahead (I think iloveoov had a great quote about this when asked about what player he would have most wanted to train). And, Flash has played Larva so much. You're crazy if you don't think Flash has several builds (not cheese necessarily, but subtle tweaks) that he's saving for when he really needs to make sure he beats Larva. He's simply not gonna let games against Larva get into the sponmatch late game scenarios, just like how when Flash 3-0'd Last he also didn't let the games come down to late game slugfests / battle of pure mechanics. The fact that Flash is pretty good at coming up with ways to have a strategic win, on top of his skill level and game sense, is just unfair. Tuning your game + playing mind games for the most important BoX series is its own skill. While it's hard to quantify, it seems likely that Flash will have a huge edge over Larva at that skill due to the massive gap in tournament experience. This is a reason I think people don't want to play Jaedong in tournaments, even though Jaedong's overall form is actually not that great. Obviously Jaedong's amazing ASL2 showing, where took 2 games off of Flash via incredible preparation in game 1 and pretty much sheer force of will in game 4, is an example of how the greatest players have an extra gear, even if it's not as reliable as it used to be. | ||
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usopsama
6502 Posts
On September 27 2017 15:38 darktreb wrote: I'm happy for Larva but don't see him as a threat against Flash. Exactly. Anyone who thinks that Larva can take out Flash in a BO5 is out of their fucking mind. | ||
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Skybrod
Russian Federation19 Posts
On September 27 2017 10:52 Letmelose wrote: Larva is a top level zerg player, but I think you are being very selective towards Larva here, by generalizing his overall performance from his games versus Last. Sponsored match statistiscs from August 2017 ~ September 2017 Larva versus Flash: 11-29 (27.5%) Larva versus Bisu: 13-11 (54.17%) Larva versus Last: 21-6 (77.78%) EffOrt versus Flash: 19-21 (47.5%) EffOrt versus Bisu: 8-5 (61.54%) EffOrt versus Last: 8-17 (32%) The only thing Larva is on another level from EffOrt is his ability to defeat Last. The part about Larva being much better than EffOrt can only be applied to his games versus Last, and the rest is a fabrication. Larva does crush inferior opposition without mercy, but an in-form EffOrt has guile and finesse to his game that Larva does not yet possess, and that is why a lot of people, including myself, thought EffOrt would have the best chance to bring down Flash. In the words of Flash himself: "When EffOrt is on crazy-mode, even I cannot stop him." Letmelose, your post, as well as many others in this thread, brings up a very interesting question that has been occupying my mind for some time — how do we measure a player's skill. I keep thinking about baseball metrics, but they are not fully applicable here, because the "true" skill in baseball is more difficult to single out. In BW, as it seems, given a sufficiently large sample of games, it's easier to say that a player has made progress or has regressed. One, for example, doesn't win 50 games out of 100 vs. Flash just because he's lucky or even 25 out of 50, unless, of course, Flash suddenly starts playing much worse. If one was to invent such a metric for BW, it would probably have to include the strength of the opponents and a certain amount of recent results (maybe 1-2 years?). Then again, maybe ELO is quite enough, since it does include the former. I wish some statistically-minded persons shared their thoughts on the matter. | ||
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Barneyk
Sweden305 Posts
On September 27 2017 05:31 traxamillion wrote: Players are better now than they were during kespa. They've been building on what they did there. Look at Larva as the prime example. Shine more dangerous than Larva in ZvP and ZvT Animus? Lol what? Shine isn't in the top 20 and Larva is a top 5 maybe top 3 player I think players are different now than during kespa. There is less strict adherence to meta and builds because every map isn't dissected and played a million man hours in the team houses. And the deep understanding of the game of having played it for such a long time is gonna be better. But, I feel like some of the micro and mechanics isn't quite up to par. But also my understanding of the game is so much better now so it is hard to say if I missed more of the sloppy plays back then than I do now. On September 27 2017 07:30 TaardadAiel wrote: Shine beat an uncharacteristically sloppy Bisu last season. I think that is a bit unfair to Shine, Shines surprising builds made Bisu sloppy. It is so much harder to play as sharp when you don't really know what to do. It is much easier to execute when you do things you have done a million times and that you planned to do. When you have to adopt and change your strategy and defend in ways you didn't expect to it is gonna make your play more sloppy. There were other factors as well, but I feel like Shine deserves more credit than your statement gives him. | ||
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Disregard
China10252 Posts
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TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
On September 27 2017 19:01 Barneyk wrote: I think players are different now than during kespa. There is less strict adherence to meta and builds because every map isn't dissected and played a million man hours in the team houses. And the deep understanding of the game of having played it for such a long time is gonna be better. But, I feel like some of the micro and mechanics isn't quite up to par. But also my understanding of the game is so much better now so it is hard to say if I missed more of the sloppy plays back then than I do now. I think that is a bit unfair to Shine, Shines surprising builds made Bisu sloppy. It is so much harder to play as sharp when you don't really know what to do. It is much easier to execute when you do things you have done a million times and that you planned to do. When you have to adopt and change your strategy and defend in ways you didn't expect to it is gonna make your play more sloppy. There were other factors as well, but I feel like Shine deserves more credit than your statement gives him. Don't get me wrong, Shine played smartly and had proper executions for his weird builds, but Bisu was sloppy nonetheless. If I recall correctly, he was coming down with something, too. Anyway, he was losing sairs to scourge all over the place and that's most of what I meant, really. I'm not used to Bisu doing stuff like that. Then again, he's being so consistently inconsistent. The whole impression was for (compared to usual/expected level) sloppy play. | ||
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_Animus_
Bulgaria1064 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
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SlayerS_BunkiE
Canada1707 Posts
On September 27 2017 15:38 darktreb wrote: Tuning your game + playing mind games for the most important BoX series is its own skill. While it's hard to quantify, it seems likely that Flash will have a huge edge over Larva at that skill due to the massive gap in tournament experience. This is a reason I think people don't want to play Jaedong in tournaments, even though Jaedong's overall form is actually not that great. Obviously Jaedong's amazing ASL2 showing, where took 2 games off of Flash via incredible preparation in game 1 and pretty much sheer force of will in game 4, is an example of how the greatest players have an extra gear, even if it's not as reliable as it used to be. Same thoughts here. When people talk about who is left able take down flash, it's crazy imo not to include players like bisu and jd, regardless of current skill level. The experience and mental toughness counts for so much. They may have a higher risk of getting eliminated by other players, but as long as these all time greats are in the tournament, they are very very legit threats to Flash. As a flash fan, I can tell you I would be a lot more nervous if he were up against bisu/jd than someone like larva. | ||
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PLoveZerg
2 Posts
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Dazed.
Canada3301 Posts
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[AS]Rattus
427 Posts
anyway... kinda sad to see shine gone already. sure, he's not the best but you don't place second in ASL by pure luck either. | ||
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