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United States20661 Posts
On September 24 2006 15:55 Bill307 wrote:
[removed quote within quote]
What's the point of saying that? You imply that 100% is actually necessary in some way. But 100% is never necessary to convict anyone for any alleged bad behaviour. And it's not like Kosiro is your child or spouse.
100% surety is theoretically necessary in American criminal courts, no?
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On September 24 2006 16:06 penitent exile wrote:
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100% surety is theoretically necessary in American criminal courts, no?
theoretically yes, practically probably not (?)
but this has nothing to do with someone cheating in a computer game.
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So basically what i get from midian's post is that the proof is that he changed ONE hotkey? you people must be unfamiliar with the concept of circumstantial evidence. You have 4 points, 3 of which can easily be dismissed and point #3 is so vague that it could be anything, maybe the key on his keyboard didnt work and he had to change it, maybe he was bored, it could be anything. Maybe I'm missing something but this doesnt seem very reasonable.
By the way, about the nicknames, rofl? He was 20 min afk, maybe he hurried to log on and just typed without caps? Maybe he had forgotten to use his clan tag in the first game? Again very weak point.
I thought the idea was that people are innocent until proven guilty. He has given a very believable explanation which although doesnt make him innocent it does weaken your arguments which are purely circumstantial.
Furthermore, if he won game 2, why would he need someone else to play for him in game 3? He suddenly lost confidence for no reason?
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On September 24 2006 15:55 NeVeRDiEDrOnE wrote:
But I have to agree that Midian's post is also convincing. Not 100% but convincing.
Well, this isn't 100% convincing either, but consider this: think about how hard it is for you to change one of your common habits. And think about how hard it is for a drunk person to concentrate and consciously focus their efforts. Now imagine a drunk person successfully changing a strong habit while simultaneously beating Draco in StarCraft: yeah, I really don't see that happening  .
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On September 24 2006 16:06 penitent exile wrote:
[removed quote within quote]
100% surety is theoretically necessary in American criminal courts, no?
I'm not sure what you mean by "theoretical", but I believe it's not the word of the law (which requires "proof beyond a reasonable doubt" as we've all heard).
100% is impossible, anyway, and therefore I think it is irrelevant to even mention it .
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On September 24 2006 16:07 Sabbath wrote:
Furthermore, if he won game 2, why would he need someone else to play for him in game 3? He suddenly lost confidence for no reason?
no, theyre saying he switched after game 1. so it was firefist both 2 and 3.
it isnt too hard to switch hotkeys, especially something as minor as early game spamming, but theres no reason for him to have done it.
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Korea (South)1740 Posts
unfortunately, the balance of evidence against kosiro is overwhelming. admittedly, much of it is circumstantial, and a significant portion of the evidence provided by bwchart (which midian outlined above), but in a case like this, this is the best we have. i should also add that i was told directly after the charge was made against him that kosiro *admitted* having someone else play for him. of course, i did not hear it directly from his mouth but secondhand, so again people may challenge how foolproof this evidence is.
on the other hand, the evidence for innocence is so farfetched it goes beyond common rationality. if you're too drunk to play even a bnet newbie level game 1, how all of a sudden after 20 minutes are you good enough to play in game 2 and 3 to beat a fairly high caliber player in draco? simply the effectiveness of "all-in" strats? this in and of itself is farfetched. being at a pc room, catching a cab or running back home, sobering up, and being ready to rock and roll in 20 minutes? this is pretty farfetched too. the power of korean soju is greater than a coffee and a cold shower.
as for motive, i'd think that a progamer being discovered for abusing during a tournament, no matter how small beans it is (and upto 1,700 dollars is not that bad for 4 hours of work), amounts to enough motivation to claim innocence. progamers are public figures nowadays, the industry is professionalized (they are, after all, representing corporations now) and players are under the microscope more than ever before.
on the other hand, if it is the case that he is "wrongfully" charged, of course he is owed a great apology, and i will be the first to offer it. i will continue to monitor the situation and investigate further but you've heard it from the horse's mouth-- considering the evidence, kosiro is definitely guilty until proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is innocent.
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It's 'reasonable doubt' not '100%' that the courts go by. I don't see how anyone can reasonably stray from Midian's analysis. Just my take.
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On September 24 2006 16:13 BlackJack wrote:
It's 'reasonable doubt' not '100%' that the courts go by. I don't see how anyone can reasonably stray from Midian's analysis. Just my take.
They use their overwhelming ignorance of the facts to cloud the verdict.
"I don't understand bwchart so he must be innocent"
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On September 24 2006 16:05 FrozenArbiter wrote:
[removed quote within quote]
Well, trust me, it works really well.. You don't check hotkey percentages, you set the diagram to show hotkeys and you get a signature.
Anyway, I REALLY hope we made a mistake, he seemed nice in the channel (and even said something about being 'condition zero' because of the team dinner) so yeah, I hope he's telling the truth.
No no, I'm not trusting anyone. Nobody has published anything convincing about the methods used. Even if all my arguments are countered properly and later confessions prove Midian/Romad to be correct, I still maintain the entirely valid point that nobody has any reason to believe that the analyses are infallible.
About not looking at percentages but rather at the diagram: I know they look at the diagram you described and I thought I implied that practice when I said that hotkeys can vary. I can't imagine that a player who varies his hotkeys and the time at which he assigns them can still be traced through the diagram, since it will look completely different. I also mentioned action percentages and APM because I recall that those figures have been used as secondary support to the hotkey comparisons.
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does anyone have a link to those 2 reps that were saved? i cant seem to find them on ygclan and would like to take a look and see myself.
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United States20661 Posts
By "theoretically" I meant by the letter of the law, and I meant to differentiate it from practically. Whatever, I am not too familiar with law.
Back to the main issue, then.
I remember back when people were deciding who skyinthesea/lastgamer/etc/etc were, there was still a great deal of controversy over whether or not LG = YellOw or not, even with all the evidence [2XX apm, 890 starting town hall, etc] So I'm still not sure how much I trust bwchart analysis, even if the analyzers are such skilled and experienced people as Midian.
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United States20661 Posts
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On September 24 2006 16:12 uhjoo wrote:
unfortunately, the balance of evidence against kosiro is overwhelming. admittedly, much of it is circumstantial, and a significant portion of the evidence provided by bwchart (which midian outlined above), but in a case like this, this is the best we have. i should also add that i was told directly after the charge was made against him that kosiro *admitted* having someone else play for him. of course, i did not hear it directly from his mouth but secondhand, so again people may challenge how foolproof this evidence is.
on the other hand, the evidence for innocence is so farfetched it goes beyond common rationality. if you're too drunk to play even a bnet newbie level game 1, how all of a sudden after 20 minutes are you good enough to play in game 2 and 3 to beat a fairly high caliber player in draco? simply the effectiveness of "all-in" strats? this in and of itself is farfetched. being at a pc room, catching a cab or running back home, sobering up, and being ready to rock and roll in 20 minutes? this is pretty farfetched too. the power of korean soju is greater than a coffee and a cold shower.
as for motive, i'd think that a progamer being discovered for abusing during a tournament, no matter how small beans it is (and upto 1,700 dollars is not that bad for 4 hours of work), amounts to enough motivation to claim innocence. progamers are public figures nowadays, the industry is professionalized (they are, after all, representing corporations now) and players are under the microscope more than ever before.
on the other hand, if it is the case that he is "wrongfully" charged, of course he is owed a great apology, and i will be the first to offer it. i will continue to monitor the situation and investigate further but you've heard it from the horse's mouth-- considering the evidence, kosiro is definitely guilty until proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is innocent.
What's the proof of him being drunk? The story goes, the pcbang computer was bad and that's why he played like a mofo.. I didn't read a word about him being drunk from the statement in this thread. Seriously him being totally drunk does not make sense to me, seing how "the industry is professionalized (they are, after all, representing corporations now) and players are under the microscope more than ever before."
But then again i'm not going to go against midian on this one I just hope it get's discussed and argued over so much that not one aspect is forgotten =P
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Corinthos
Canada1842 Posts
Maybe he only used those hotkeys in the replays he released to the public. I think it'd help his cause if he showed another replay of him using those hotkeys. The name tag thing, not really a big deal, if it was on LAN you'd probably have a few nicks saved already. So yeah.
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Osaka27154 Posts
Players of Kosiro's level do not change their hotkays like we saw in the two reps. I dont care how drunk you are, when you play as much as he does, in the same matchup, on the same map, you do not change. There was not one hotkey change, but MANY. The first game hotkeys #1-5 were used only. The second game, hotkeys 1-5 and 7-9 were used. The order of hotkeying was also different. This does not happen with the same person.
Midian and romad have been identifying players like this for years, and I have never ever seen them be wrong. All those PGT threads, they bust people, and they arent wrong.
Draco's teammate talked to kosiro after the event and he admitted it. In addition, the kosiro i talked to after the third game and before the first game had different levels of english ability. As a professional ESL teacher, I notice these things.
I do wish Draco had saved the second replay. It would clear many things up with another piece of evidence. However, Draco gave me no reason to not believe him, and his reactions were convincing. Why is kosiro changing his story now? Maybe as uhjoo said, he doesnt want to lose reputation, as he represents a company. There are many other hungry gamers out there who could replace him.
I think he cheated. Unless someone can give me evidence otherwise (other than Polaris making a post) then I don't consider kosiro as part of the team.
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Eh ... I think the problem is also, we don't have a game two to judge. So really all this is based off ONE game which most people know, can always be flukey. Secondly, he didn't say in his story that he was drunk or anything. There's no telling how much a hangover affected him since it makes perfect sense (if the pc cafe was really unfavorable) to do bad in a sucky environment and then simply do a rush to try to get it over with so you can switch to another PC. Twenty minutes isn't that short of time and there's no "distance" we can measure to verify the story. There's evidence against him and such but still I suppose I want TL to win so I'm willing to give benefit of the doubt.
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On September 24 2006 16:12 uhjoo wrote:
on the other hand, the evidence for innocence is so farfetched it goes beyond common rationality. if you're too drunk to play even a bnet newbie level game 1, how all of a sudden after 20 minutes are you good enough to play in game 2 and 3 to beat a fairly high caliber player in draco? simply the effectiveness of "all-in" strats? this in and of itself is farfetched. being at a pc room, catching a cab or running back home, sobering up, and being ready to rock and roll in 20 minutes? this is pretty farfetched too. the power of korean soju is greater than a coffee and a cold shower.
hes not claiming he sobered up, he said it was the combination of the pc cafe conditions and being drunk, and that after returning to the pantech house he played allin since he was still drunk.
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EPT
