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Sweden5462 Posts
On September 24 2006 16:19 penitent exile wrote:
By "theoretically" I meant by the letter of the law, and I meant to differentiate it from practically. Whatever, I am not too familiar with law.
Back to the main issue, then.
I remember back when people were deciding who skyinthesea/lastgamer/etc/etc were, there was still a great deal of controversy over whether or not LG = YellOw or not, even with all the evidence [2XX apm, 890 starting town hall, etc] So I'm still not sure how much I trust bwchart analysis, even if the analyzers are such skilled and experienced people as Midian.
Excuse me but it's not like they wrote a 2000 pages of evidence a normal person can't understand. You don't need to trust them just use logics.
The way he used hotkeys changed in such a way that it looks like a totally different player (explained in detail by midian). Why would he change his hotkey behavior?
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I'm very surprised when reading this. When I first saw that Kosiro had been drunk and let FireFist play for him, I thought this was based on him admitting it upon being confronted. Now it appears that it was solely based on hotkeys. Quite an outrage.
I assume that him being drunk was something he said to TL captain himself (I think I recall something about that last thread). If someone was with him and said that he was drunk, they would know whether it was him playing. Obviously, the skill he exhibits will be different when he uses a good setup instead of a bad one. Just like sEn playing from his grandmother's in his match - I don't think anyone would have imagined him losing to IdrA.
I'd find great differences in playing-style much more convincing than marginal hotkey proof. Normally, the differences in hotkeys will be extensive between two players (in WC3, at least, not sure how much is changed in Starcraft), but here we only have little difference. It was quite simple two different groupings. He was reportedly drunk. Maybe he did it for the hell of it or just incidentally. Either way, you decide to change a two groupings (not too significant, if this is how Firefist plays he could have surely learned to play this was from him), play a game, and end up getting kicked from a tournament because of that. How would you lot like that?
Really don't like the evidence here. I won't be quick to assume that Kosiro is innocent, and I haven't even watched the games, but the accusations against him seem quite weak. Seems entirely unprofessional to announce this as the truth, making Firefist guilty, too (even if many people probably use the same hotkeys, him just being more likely because he's close to Kosiro) with no way of being even remotely sure that it is the actual truth.
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Sweden5462 Posts
I honestly dont understand how you can argue against manifesto7s last post. I totally respect his choice
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Also I want to point out, that certain hotkey groupings makes certain strats easier to execute. If he was doing an all in rush, it's entirely feasible that he swaps his hotkeys to execute the strat. Unless you can pull up more replays of Kosiro doing all in rushes, besides game 1 (where he was already supposed playing under a distressed position), I still think there's room for error on the judgement.
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Sweden33719 Posts
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On September 24 2006 16:32 KissBlade wrote:
Also I want to point out, that certain hotkey groupings makes certain strats easier to execute. If he was doing an all in rush, it's entirely feasible that he swaps his hotkeys to execute the strat. Unless you can pull up more replays of Kosiro doing all in rushes, besides game 1 (where he was already supposed playing under a distressed position), I still think there's room for error on the judgement.
Finding an all-in rep of Kosiro is like finding a throbbing cock in zia's pants.
But don't let the whole not knowing anything stop you from posting. it's not stopping anyone else :/
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On September 24 2006 16:33 racebannon wrote:
[removed quote within quote]
Finding an all-in rep of Kosiro is like finding a throbbing cock in zia's pants.
But don't let the whole not knowing anything stop you from posting. it's not stopping anyone else :/
So just pull up some similar games to game 3 that Kosiro played in and match them. I think the evidence is against him but I'd really like to believe him simply because it would give TL more of a shot for winning Sandlot.
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On September 24 2006 16:25 Manifesto7 wrote:
Players of Kosiro's level do not change their hotkays like we saw in the two reps. I dont care how drunk you are, when you play as much as he does, in the same matchup, on the same map, you do not change. There was not one hotkey change, but MANY. The first game hotkeys #1-5 were used only. The second game, hotkeys 1-5 and 7-9 were used. The order of hotkeying was also different. This does not happen with the same person.
Midian and romad have been identifying players like this for years, and I have never ever seen them be wrong. All those PGT threads, they bust people, and they arent wrong.
1-5 and 7-9 doesnt really matter that much, when playing z i hotkey my hatches 3-4 early game and then switch to 0-7 later on, when i set the hatches to the upper hotkeys depends on when i remember to do it which varies alot game to game. that part means nothing, its the differences in spamming patterns that are incriminating.
also there isnt really a check on correctness of the whos who threads. romad says smurf a is player 1 and it goes up on the list. especially involving the koreans theres rarely any confirmation or denial. i think it is fairly accurate but to say the hotkey checkers are infallible and use their performance in the pgt threads as proof isnt right.
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On September 24 2006 16:32 KissBlade wrote:
Also I want to point out, that certain hotkey groupings makes certain strats easier to execute. If he was doing an all in rush, it's entirely feasible that he swaps his hotkeys to execute the strat. Unless you can pull up more replays of Kosiro doing all in rushes, besides game 1 (where he was already supposed playing under a distressed position), I still think there's room for error on the judgement.
that is true. i would change hotkeys so that important buildings were close to the 1234 when i'm doing an allin or rush style.
imo the replay evidence is decent but not definitive. maybe i'm too leniant, but i take a "reasonable doubt" approach regarding cheaters. there is reasonable doubt here i'd say. if i was the guy in charge i'd have given kos the win, but also a warning and a "we'll be watching you closely" comment.
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After reading Manifesto's post (which was posted while I was writing mine), it seems that the hotkey differences are too big to be incidental. So, it has to have been a conscious choice, either to fit playing style or due to him playing less seriously. [Edit: After having read HungZerg's post, the hotkey differences that Manifesto mentioned might be the difference between early and mid-game, depending on what's necessary in the situation. So, my statement above in this paragraph might not be true.]
My comment was based on MidiaN's post. Seeing that he was one of the main persons behind this investigation, I thought he would bring forth all relevant evidence. However, if Kosiro really did admit to cheating, then there cannot be much doubt. Is there any evidence of that, however?
Different levels of English says nothing in itself. If he has problems expressing himself in English he might have had someone help him. I see no reason for FireFist also to communicate with the captain in Kosiro's place. Is the theory that Kosiro has simple dozes off or left the building?
It is true that Kosiro might easily be desperate to prove his entegrity and save his honour in the eyes of the Koreans, as this being talked about publicly in the Korean scene will surely lower people's estimation of him.
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Korea (South)1740 Posts
On September 24 2006 16:37 KissBlade wrote:
[removed quote within quote]
So just pull up some similar games to game 3 that Kosiro played in and match them.
or better yet, pull up some of firefist's games and compare the 2323232323 spamming in the first 10 seconds of the game where all that strategy will change the way you hotkey
I think the evidence is against him but I'd really like to believe him simply because it would give TL more of a shot for winning Sandlot.
oh yes this is a great attitude
on the flip side, mani being forthright about kosiro's "alleged" behavior is a testament to sticking by your principles rather than just wanting to win win win
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Sweden33719 Posts
On September 24 2006 16:40 HungZerg wrote:
[removed quote within quote]
1-5 and 7-9 doesnt really matter that much, when playing z i hotkey my hatches 3-4 early game and then switch to 0-7 later on, when i set the hatches to the upper hotkeys depends on when i remember to do it which varies alot game to game. that part means nothing, its the differences in spamming patterns that are incriminating.
also there isnt really a check on correctness of the whos who threads. romad says smurf a is player 1 and it goes up on the list. especially involving the koreans theres rarely any confirmation or denial. i think it is fairly accurate but to say the hotkey checkers are infallible and use their performance in the pgt threads as proof isnt right.
Well,
1) StarofNC and Romad were, for awhile, replay-analyzers for 2 proteams.. Seriously, they'd be msned constantly with reps like 'who is this!!' (one time I remember 2 guys gave one of them the same replay at the exact same time :D).
2) They personally talked to many of the people they found out =]
I'm sure they have been wrong, but those few times it's been 'hm, this COULD be X' not 'This is X'.
Honestly, I really, really wish Kosiro is innocent and that he's able to prove it, but the evidence is all against him :[
I hope he did this with good intentions (ie feeling bad about being drunk and having forgot he had to play this and wanting to fix it), and if so, that it doesn't impact his career negatively.. -.-
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ToT)MidiaN(
England2183 Posts
Another piece of information : Both Sea.FireFist and Kosiro have been known to share IDs before. Kosiro has done it with other [Shield] members in various west clan leagues. Sea.FireFist smurfed on Sea.Jang's oG) account in ToT vs oG). People said i was wrong then too, they were wrong. The proof may not be 100% but I would say I'm about 99.936% sure that it wasn't Kosiro and about 90% that the zerg who actually played was Sea.FireFist. Bed time for me~ i got nothing more to say on this matter anyway
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I don't suppose there's a way they could just rematch the whole thing? Though Midian's new smurfing comment does suggest a history which is even more against Kosiro. =\
Too bad, I was actually excited when I first read this post thinking that TL had a shot after all.
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On September 24 2006 16:25 Manifesto7 wrote:
Players of Kosiro's level do not change their hotkays like we saw in the two reps. I dont care how drunk you are, when you play as much as he does, in the same matchup, on the same map, you do not change. There was not one hotkey change, but MANY. The first game hotkeys #1-5 were used only. The second game, hotkeys 1-5 and 7-9 were used. The order of hotkeying was also different. This does not happen with the same person.
Only hotkeys #1-5 were used in both games. The diagram lights up because he assigned hotkeys 7-10 but he never uses them after he assigns them. He continues to use hotkeys 1-5 in the same way despite having made assignments once. Besides that, watch the games. In the 3rd game, at the time when you would expect him to assign his hatcheries 7 and 8, he is microing his lings. I wouldn't expect him to make hotkey assignments at high numbers while he is microing lings. He simply keeps to the system of hotkeys 1 and 2 as lings, and hotkeys 3 4 5 for the hatcheries. However in the first game, he's forgotten his overlord and so he has absolutely nothing to do at the time he puts down his 3rd hatchery. So of course he can do his normal high number hotkeys.
On September 24 2006 16:25 Manifesto7 wrote:
Midian and romad have been identifying players like this for years, and I have never ever seen them be wrong. All those PGT threads, they bust people, and they arent wrong.
I'm not saying that this is false but rather that it's not clearly documented. And even if you can document it all, the data still needs to be analyzed to see if it's actually conclusive. The most defense I hear is Midian saying "Well here you can see that this is happening, and, well, players just don't do that." There's been no mass sampling of replays to show what players do and what they don't do. There's been no extenuating circumstances taken into account (ie no warmup, different keyboard/mouse, the actual flow and actions of the game, etc). Basically it's just all very sloppy and I don't understand how you can all be so accepting of making such methods as the turning point of a very important decision.
On September 24 2006 16:25 Manifesto7 wrote:
Draco's teammate talked to kosiro after the event and he admitted it. In addition, the kosiro i talked to after the third game and before the first game had different levels of english ability. As a professional ESL teacher, I notice these things.
Of course, I can't comment on the validity of your judgment based on your experience as a teacher. However I can definitely imagine you being wrong without going out of the realm of possibility. About the confession. I'd need to know the circumstances to judge it. However, it apparently wasn't a very clear-cut thing since the replay analysis has been the main argument against him. No need for that with a confession.
On September 24 2006 16:25 Manifesto7 wrote:
I think he cheated. Unless someone can give me evidence otherwise (other than Polaris making a post) then I don't consider kosiro as part of the team.
Hopefully I've given you some good reasons. But now I turn the tables and ask some things about your theoretical story. Why would polaris jump in a sinking ship? Why would you conclude your replay analysis without hearing a defense from the player himself?
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FA and zdd, you might find that ticking Hot Key Selection gives a clearer "fingerprint."
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Corinthos
Canada1842 Posts
I still say ask korsiro to submit his replays using those hotkeys. I doubt he released all his replays, the replays your judging now is the replays that are released, but how about the ones that aren't? How about his practice games or other ones?
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On September 24 2006 16:25 Manifesto7 wrote:
Players of Kosiro's level do not change their hotkays like we saw in the two reps.
Not only would we have to believe that he changed his hotkeys in the middle of a series, we'd also have to believe that he changed them to match another gamer's hotkeys. Another owning by Occam's razor t.t
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On September 24 2006 16:40 HungZerg wrote:
also there isnt really a check on correctness of the whos who threads. romad says smurf a is player 1 and it goes up on the list. especially involving the koreans theres rarely any confirmation or denial. i think it is fairly accurate but to say the hotkey checkers are infallible and use their performance in the pgt threads as proof isnt right.
Yes I agree with this. That's one of the ways I'd cast doubt on the whole method. Also I'd like to see how many of the cases they have done are as confusing as this one. I'd imagine many of them are a lot more clear cut.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/5404/kosirodj5.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/7749/kosiro2ak3.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img92.imageshack.us/img92/6702/replay1ub5.png)
![[image loading]](http://img58.imageshack.us/img58/4927/replay2sa1.png)
