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[ASL] Round of 8 Groups - Page 5

Forum Index > BW General
103 CommentsPost a Reply
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classicyellow83
Profile Joined June 2016
United States2393 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-28 17:37:22
December 28 2016 17:36 GMT
#81
Guemchi has no chance.
Flash vs Guemchi: 20-4 (Spon Matches)
Flash's TvP this month: 38-8 (82.3%)
4-1 vs Bisu, 3-2 vs Best, 12-3 vs Shuttle, 2-1 vs Rain, 5-0 vs Free, 2-0 vs Snow, 6-0 vs Stork, 3-1 vs Tyson, 1-0 vs Sky
Reach!!! Come back to BW!!
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
December 28 2016 18:04 GMT
#82
Do we know anything about the map pool?

If it's a BO5 all the way I guess they'll use 3 from the group stages (one of them possibly twice for the 5th match) but that still means that oen map has to be added. I'm wondering if this is announced already and it's just me who didn't notice anything in this regard.
The heart's eternal vow
endy
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Switzerland8970 Posts
December 28 2016 18:08 GMT
#83
On December 29 2016 02:36 classicyellow83 wrote:
Guemchi has no chance.
Flash vs Guemchi: 20-4 (Spon Matches)
Flash's TvP this month: 38-8 (82.3%)
4-1 vs Bisu, 3-2 vs Best, 12-3 vs Shuttle, 2-1 vs Rain, 5-0 vs Free, 2-0 vs Snow, 6-0 vs Stork, 3-1 vs Tyson, 1-0 vs Sky


After all this time BeSt is still the one with the better record against Flash.
6-0 vs Stork is brutal
ॐ
classicyellow83
Profile Joined June 2016
United States2393 Posts
December 28 2016 18:15 GMT
#84
On December 29 2016 03:08 endy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 29 2016 02:36 classicyellow83 wrote:
Guemchi has no chance.
Flash vs Guemchi: 20-4 (Spon Matches)
Flash's TvP this month: 38-8 (82.3%)
4-1 vs Bisu, 3-2 vs Best, 12-3 vs Shuttle, 2-1 vs Rain, 5-0 vs Free, 2-0 vs Snow, 6-0 vs Stork, 3-1 vs Tyson, 1-0 vs Sky


After all this time BeSt is still the one with the better record against Flash.
6-0 vs Stork is brutal

Top 3 vs Flash
#1 Effort: 54-65
#2 Best: 52-71
#3 Bisu: 41-57

And yes. Flash has winning record against everyone.
Reach!!! Come back to BW!!
classicyellow83
Profile Joined June 2016
United States2393 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-28 18:18:41
December 28 2016 18:16 GMT
#85
On December 29 2016 03:04 PVJ wrote:
Do we know anything about the map pool?

If it's a BO5 all the way I guess they'll use 3 from the group stages (one of them possibly twice for the 5th match) but that still means that oen map has to be added. I'm wondering if this is announced already and it's just me who didn't notice anything in this regard.

Each player picks 1 map to take out for game 1 and 5. So the map orders will be different for all groups. Far as i know Best took out CB and Hero took out Benzene.
The maps are Circuit Breaker, Eye of the Storm, Benzene, and Demian.
Reach!!! Come back to BW!!
classicyellow83
Profile Joined June 2016
United States2393 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-28 18:33:24
December 28 2016 18:23 GMT
#86
My guesses are ... Zergs is gonna take out Benzene against protoss and protoss is gonna take out Eye of the Storm vs Zergs(Best is regretting not taking out Eye of the Storm), and Terran is gonna take out Eye of the Storm or Benzene against Protoss.
Everyone is gonna take out Circuit Breaker against Flash. Maybe not JD. JD loves himself some circuit breaker.
Reach!!! Come back to BW!!
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10253 Posts
December 28 2016 20:53 GMT
#87
On December 29 2016 03:15 classicyellow83 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 29 2016 03:08 endy wrote:
On December 29 2016 02:36 classicyellow83 wrote:
Guemchi has no chance.
Flash vs Guemchi: 20-4 (Spon Matches)
Flash's TvP this month: 38-8 (82.3%)
4-1 vs Bisu, 3-2 vs Best, 12-3 vs Shuttle, 2-1 vs Rain, 5-0 vs Free, 2-0 vs Snow, 6-0 vs Stork, 3-1 vs Tyson, 1-0 vs Sky


After all this time BeSt is still the one with the better record against Flash.
6-0 vs Stork is brutal

Top 3 vs Flash
#1 Effort: 54-65
#2 Best: 52-71
#3 Bisu: 41-57

And yes. Flash has winning record against everyone.

We should keep in mind that players probably prepare differently for pre-determined MU in ASL than they do for sponsored matches. I feel like this could work in the favor of some of Flash's opponents.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
shaggles
Profile Joined October 2011
Poland108 Posts
December 28 2016 21:25 GMT
#88
Four players looked very solid in the Ro16, unfortunately two of them meet on January, 2nd. This is by far the most interesting match (I will root for Sea to make it more balanced)

Hero is in my opinion good candidate for the final match. I would like to see if there are any other robust counters to proxy BBS apart from 3Hatch.b.P. Hero's focus on playing vs P may work to his advantage in semis if Bisu is through. Will it do? Hope it will.

I hope Guemchi will not lose the match in his head before games start. But odds are surely against him.

The fourth match is the second interesting one, considered current skill level of both players. I will give the edge to JD, but that's only because I play Z. In the current form JD probably fall to Flash like 1-3. I hope not, but...

And it would be fun, if Hero is able to dismantle Flash since almost no one is calling that
I play the Chess of Computer Age
classicyellow83
Profile Joined June 2016
United States2393 Posts
December 29 2016 02:27 GMT
#89
OK. Flash took out Benzene.
Flash: "I lost more than I won on Benzene during practice preparing for ASL.
Reach!!! Come back to BW!!
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10253 Posts
December 29 2016 02:28 GMT
#90
On December 28 2016 12:29 darktreb wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 28 2016 11:53 FlaShFTW wrote:
On December 28 2016 11:34 darktreb wrote:
On December 27 2016 23:43 TheFoReveRwaR wrote:
On December 27 2016 23:41 PuckSama. wrote:
What a RO8... I don't know if I've ever seen this level before... You change Guemchi by Effort and it's just just the most insane RO8 ever =D

At some point you have to acknowledge effort's inability to preform when it matters in the post kespa era. He's simply not the best right now despite his practice results.


Umm ... he won an SSL/ASL just one year ago. Against Bisu in the finals no less.

He gets knocked out early in the next two leagues and suddenly it's "inability to perform in the post kespa era"? That's asinine.

if i were you id go to liquipedia and look at how many times he gets knocked out of online tournaments as well. out of like the 5-6 tournaments hes been in, he won 1, placed 2nd at another, and the other 4 got knocked out of the groupstages.

Let's take a look here starting from most recent:
ASL2: Round of 24 exit (out of 24)
Thrill SL: Ro16 exit (out of 16)
NalRa SL: Ro8 exit (out of 8 players)
ASL1: Ro16 exit (out of 16)
41 Ranking: Ro8 exit (out of 12 players)
Terror NINUS: 2nd (out of 16)
41 SL: Ro32 exit (out of 32)
VANT: Winner (out of 32)


Yeah, I don't think anyone's claiming he's been great in leagues, or even performed near his standard. But he won the most important league once, and got second in another decent league. And yeah, he lost some BO3's or round robin 3 game / dual tournaments where he was a favorite. It's not great for sure, but those are still top ~5 results out of all players.

Just feels like this has turned into one of those situations where you start with a small sample size --> big narrative --> now everyone's on the lookout for the narrative, thus further amplifying it.

"some bo3s or round robin" is an understatement. when you play in 8 tournaments and lose in the group stages in 6 of them, yeah, your win looks like a fluke. consistency proves results, not a random fluke win in an offline tournament. shuttle's win looks more and more like a fluke after he got smashed in groups in asl2. same with sharp.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10253 Posts
December 29 2016 08:13 GMT
#91
On December 29 2016 11:28 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 28 2016 12:29 darktreb wrote:
On December 28 2016 11:53 FlaShFTW wrote:
On December 28 2016 11:34 darktreb wrote:
On December 27 2016 23:43 TheFoReveRwaR wrote:
On December 27 2016 23:41 PuckSama. wrote:
What a RO8... I don't know if I've ever seen this level before... You change Guemchi by Effort and it's just just the most insane RO8 ever =D

At some point you have to acknowledge effort's inability to preform when it matters in the post kespa era. He's simply not the best right now despite his practice results.


Umm ... he won an SSL/ASL just one year ago. Against Bisu in the finals no less.

He gets knocked out early in the next two leagues and suddenly it's "inability to perform in the post kespa era"? That's asinine.

if i were you id go to liquipedia and look at how many times he gets knocked out of online tournaments as well. out of like the 5-6 tournaments hes been in, he won 1, placed 2nd at another, and the other 4 got knocked out of the groupstages.

Let's take a look here starting from most recent:
ASL2: Round of 24 exit (out of 24)
Thrill SL: Ro16 exit (out of 16)
NalRa SL: Ro8 exit (out of 8 players)
ASL1: Ro16 exit (out of 16)
41 Ranking: Ro8 exit (out of 12 players)
Terror NINUS: 2nd (out of 16)
41 SL: Ro32 exit (out of 32)
VANT: Winner (out of 32)


Yeah, I don't think anyone's claiming he's been great in leagues, or even performed near his standard. But he won the most important league once, and got second in another decent league. And yeah, he lost some BO3's or round robin 3 game / dual tournaments where he was a favorite. It's not great for sure, but those are still top ~5 results out of all players.

Just feels like this has turned into one of those situations where you start with a small sample size --> big narrative --> now everyone's on the lookout for the narrative, thus further amplifying it.

"some bo3s or round robin" is an understatement. when you play in 8 tournaments and lose in the group stages in 6 of them, yeah, your win looks like a fluke. consistency proves results, not a random fluke win in an offline tournament. shuttle's win looks more and more like a fluke after he got smashed in groups in asl2. same with sharp.

It's hard to compare the two tournaments because of the vastly different player pool. Sharp and Shuttle may indeed have been the best players in ASL1 on gameday, but that is no longer the case because of the influx of TBLS and co. On the grand scale of things we can say Shuttle is lucky to have won, but to say it is a fluke is not appropriate I think. Maybe I am digging too deep into semantics, but I think you see where I'm going with this. Iris beating Bisu in game 5 on RotK or Byzantium or whatever it was and continuing to not be relevant thereafter is a fluke. ForGG becoming godlike and crushing some of the best players at the time then fading immediately after his title win was a fluke. Shuttle winning ASL1 when his playing field was relatively insignificant compared to what ASL2 offers is not a fluke, it's just fortune.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
CUTtheCBC
Profile Joined December 2016
Canada91 Posts
December 29 2016 12:35 GMT
#92
hero vs flash in the finals
Brood War's Back, YEA!
c3rberUs
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Japan11286 Posts
December 29 2016 12:55 GMT
#93
Is January 2 a holiday in Korea?
WriterMovie, 진영화 : "StarCraft will never die".
Ilikestarcraft
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Korea (South)17732 Posts
December 29 2016 13:37 GMT
#94
No
"Nana is a goddess. Or at very least, Nana is my goddess." - KazeHydra
jinyung2
Profile Joined November 2014
Luxembourg1455 Posts
December 29 2016 17:14 GMT
#95
go jaedong!
Argentina
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10253 Posts
December 29 2016 17:57 GMT
#96
On December 29 2016 17:13 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 29 2016 11:28 FlaShFTW wrote:
On December 28 2016 12:29 darktreb wrote:
On December 28 2016 11:53 FlaShFTW wrote:
On December 28 2016 11:34 darktreb wrote:
On December 27 2016 23:43 TheFoReveRwaR wrote:
On December 27 2016 23:41 PuckSama. wrote:
What a RO8... I don't know if I've ever seen this level before... You change Guemchi by Effort and it's just just the most insane RO8 ever =D

At some point you have to acknowledge effort's inability to preform when it matters in the post kespa era. He's simply not the best right now despite his practice results.


Umm ... he won an SSL/ASL just one year ago. Against Bisu in the finals no less.

He gets knocked out early in the next two leagues and suddenly it's "inability to perform in the post kespa era"? That's asinine.

if i were you id go to liquipedia and look at how many times he gets knocked out of online tournaments as well. out of like the 5-6 tournaments hes been in, he won 1, placed 2nd at another, and the other 4 got knocked out of the groupstages.

Let's take a look here starting from most recent:
ASL2: Round of 24 exit (out of 24)
Thrill SL: Ro16 exit (out of 16)
NalRa SL: Ro8 exit (out of 8 players)
ASL1: Ro16 exit (out of 16)
41 Ranking: Ro8 exit (out of 12 players)
Terror NINUS: 2nd (out of 16)
41 SL: Ro32 exit (out of 32)
VANT: Winner (out of 32)


Yeah, I don't think anyone's claiming he's been great in leagues, or even performed near his standard. But he won the most important league once, and got second in another decent league. And yeah, he lost some BO3's or round robin 3 game / dual tournaments where he was a favorite. It's not great for sure, but those are still top ~5 results out of all players.

Just feels like this has turned into one of those situations where you start with a small sample size --> big narrative --> now everyone's on the lookout for the narrative, thus further amplifying it.

"some bo3s or round robin" is an understatement. when you play in 8 tournaments and lose in the group stages in 6 of them, yeah, your win looks like a fluke. consistency proves results, not a random fluke win in an offline tournament. shuttle's win looks more and more like a fluke after he got smashed in groups in asl2. same with sharp.

It's hard to compare the two tournaments because of the vastly different player pool. Sharp and Shuttle may indeed have been the best players in ASL1 on gameday, but that is no longer the case because of the influx of TBLS and co. On the grand scale of things we can say Shuttle is lucky to have won, but to say it is a fluke is not appropriate I think. Maybe I am digging too deep into semantics, but I think you see where I'm going with this. Iris beating Bisu in game 5 on RotK or Byzantium or whatever it was and continuing to not be relevant thereafter is a fluke. ForGG becoming godlike and crushing some of the best players at the time then fading immediately after his title win was a fluke. Shuttle winning ASL1 when his playing field was relatively insignificant compared to what ASL2 offers is not a fluke, it's just fortune.

Effort's VANT run through featured 2 super easy groups to advance from. He had to play Hiya, Zelot, and Pure in the Ro32 and still lost to Hiya. His Ro16 group was ZerO, July, and Rush and lost to ZerO but it's ZvZ so whatever. In the Round of 8 he faced Guemchi so el oh el rofl 3-1. Ro4 was a ZvZ vs ZerO so ok whatever, it's ZvZ anything can happen, and yeah, he beat Bisu 3-1. If those results weren't fluked, he should be stomping people. Seriously, 3-1 over Bisu and you can't make it out of groups anymore? That, and Bisu was probably super tilted in BoX with Zergs after an embarrassing 0-3 to Hero in the SSL11 as well. Yeah, it's a fluke from anyone who isn't a super big fanboy of EffOrt right now.

For example: 41 Ranking he couldn't even get out of a group with a rusty Kal, Hiya, and a shitty TvZ in Mong.
In ASL 1 he couldn't make it out of a group with mediocre PvZ free, shitty PvZ Shuttle, and meh TvZ ssak.
He then lost to Bisu 1-2 in Nal_Ra which again, if 3-1 wasn't a fluke, he should have won this one.
And in Thrill, he didn't even make it out of a group with Sky, Hoejja, and Sharp.
I don't think I need to remind you what happened in the asl 2 either.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
ThreeActPlay
Profile Joined April 2011
United States249 Posts
December 30 2016 09:49 GMT
#97
I'm surprised that Sea's TvP was good enough to get through that group. I'm still watching old 2012 proleague VOD's and his TvP is dreadful.
twitter.com/haethos
Barneyk
Profile Joined November 2008
Sweden310 Posts
December 30 2016 11:03 GMT
#98
I feel liked Flash messed up last season by not specifically preparing and having his builds countered so well by Last who had studied Flashs games.
This season he seems to have adapted better and changing things up a bit.
nah
zelderan
Profile Joined May 2013
United States163 Posts
December 30 2016 15:35 GMT
#99
DUDE these brackets might give us the ultimate timeline finals! Flash vs. Jaedong would be a wet dream. Let's go boys!!
"Pumpkin mut-muts!" ~ Tasteless
Jae Zedong
Profile Joined September 2016
407 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-30 15:41:21
December 30 2016 15:40 GMT
#100
On December 30 2016 18:49 ThreeActPlay wrote:
I'm surprised that Sea's TvP was good enough to get through that group. I'm still watching old 2012 proleague VOD's and his TvP is dreadful.

Don't watch vods from 2012 then, that year was a joke for BW and players didn't take it seriously. It was just sad to see formerly great players phoning in mediocre performances while practicing 80% SC2.
Tyrant.
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