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On December 28 2011 07:19 gngfn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 06:29 Mortality wrote:On December 28 2011 06:20 Kleinmuuhg wrote:
Fantasy should get a better placement in those lists. He is 3:1 , looked really solid to me ( didnt watch vs Last yet) , he just didnt have a really good opponent yet Zero isn't a good opponent? (Fantasy won, btw) Seriously, Zero is must be underrated as all fuck. I think it's more that Zero was so bad in that game that no one mentally filed it as a great win. Everyone respects Zero's ability to pull out amazing games sometimes, but he's still plagued by an unfortunate tendency to be horrible with no explanation every now and then. Also, Fantasy's other two wins were against Canata and Reality, and it probably hurts his standing that he's only played four games, whereas players like Bisu and Hydra have played six each.
That's because SKT raped their way through opponents without needing Fantasy. It's hard to blame him for that. The coaches and players confirmed that Fanta was scheduled to play. They were even joking about how Fantasy didn't get to play in his home town because they crushed their opponent before Fanta had a chance to go out.
I don't know why everyone expects everyone to play every game. This isn't soccer. SKT started the season looking absurdly scary.
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On December 28 2011 07:24 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 07:19 gngfn wrote:On December 28 2011 06:29 Mortality wrote:On December 28 2011 06:20 Kleinmuuhg wrote:
Fantasy should get a better placement in those lists. He is 3:1 , looked really solid to me ( didnt watch vs Last yet) , he just didnt have a really good opponent yet Zero isn't a good opponent? (Fantasy won, btw) Seriously, Zero is must be underrated as all fuck. I think it's more that Zero was so bad in that game that no one mentally filed it as a great win. Everyone respects Zero's ability to pull out amazing games sometimes, but he's still plagued by an unfortunate tendency to be horrible with no explanation every now and then. Also, Fantasy's other two wins were against Canata and Reality, and it probably hurts his standing that he's only played four games, whereas players like Bisu and Hydra have played six each. That's because SKT raped their way through opponents without needing Fantasy. It's hard to blame him for that. The coaches and players confirmed that Fanta was scheduled to play. They were even joking about how Fantasy didn't get to play in his home town because they crushed their opponent before Fanta had a chance to go out. I don't know why everyone expects everyone to play every game. This isn't soccer. SKT started the season looking absurdly scary.
I didn't say it was Fantasy's fault that he hasn't played. I'm saying that 3-1 with two of the wins being Reality and Canata and the loss being Last isn't really the kind of record that makes people think "wow, this guy should be on the Power Rank." Fewer games means less information, which in turn means that the information has to be more compelling to compensate.
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On December 28 2011 05:49 Mortality wrote:
-Zero is now 3-3 and frankly he's had a fairly brutal list of opponents (IMO harder than Bisu's, who is also 3-3). Time to start thinking about the possibility of ranking him.
Indeed. He looked dominating last game, although part of it was Leta just chilling with his M&M ball for too long. But I couldn't even keep track of how many bases ZerO had.
I would seriously consider ZerO ranking above Bisu at this point. ZerO lost to two S-Class players in Stork and Fantasy and Calm who appeared to not be in Clam form at the time. Bisu also lost to Stork, so that's even. I'd say the PvP loss to free is comparable to the ZvZ loss to Calm. But the difference is that Bogus is not quite at Fantasy's level, so ZerO actually gets the advantage in losses. So statistically ZerO certainly has a shot at passing Bisu (as of game 6, game 7 may change things). Subjectively, both have been "meh" and "great" at times. Bisu still proving that Zergs are nothing more that sacrifices to the PvZ Shin, and ZerO proving that he can be brilliant and fail in any matchup depending on the day of the week. Hopefully both play in their game 7 and that decides things - including the slim possibility of neither making it (the PR is that competitive right now).
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Calm played very well against Zero. Of course, I think Zero made a mistake engaging Calm at that point, but the victory was due to Calm's excellent play. The muta flocks were exactly the same size I'm pretty sure, but if you watch Calm uses an excellent tactic to draw Zero's mutas into his scourge while simultaneously sniping Zero's scourge. It was over in just 1-2 seconds, but it's a beautiful little piece of Starcraft.
@gngfn I apologize. I interpreted what you wrote a little differently.
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So I thought I'd jump back in here now that round 1 is finished.
1) Flash (I don't think you can really argue this)
2) Stork (Or this, 5-1 record including a win over Bisu)
3) Jangbi (Carryover from OSL win + respectable 4-2 record)
4) Stats (5-1 record plus carryover form from last PL finals. I want to put him at #3 but that's probably KT bias talking, so put him at #4 instead)
5) Baby (Undefeated record including wins over good players)
6) Fantasy (if Jangbi gets #3 then Fanta deserves this spot imo for 3-1 record plus all but winning the OSL)
7) Jaedong (only gets the top Zerg spot because he's JD really)
8) Effort (this could really go either way, I think Effort has looked more impressive in his games than...)
9) Hydra (who should maybe be higher considering he made the OSL ro4, but it's hard to separate these Zergs)
10) Soulkey (Would have been higher if he'd beaten Hydra, but ends up with a 4-1 record)
Shoutout: Piano
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United States9292 Posts
Stork's 5-1 is deceptive
3 of his wins were vs people whose worst matchup is arguably PvP (I'd argue Bisu's PvP has been shakier lately than his PvT, movie and tyson are definitely givens on the matter)
+ Show Spoiler +I mean, he just lost a PvP!
He beat Hero, who is sort of a ZvP or ZvZ type of player with shakier ZvT... yeah, I just checked that, and I was correct.... but I don't trust hero as a test of Stork's PvZ
Stork's PvT was always his best matchup, but we haven't seen if it is as good as it used to be this season. I don't really want to push him up to #2 having only seen him play PvPs and PvZ vs a not-even-A-class player. What if he loses to Light again in a PvT like he did half a year ago? The reason I made my ranking a few pages ago the way I did, dipping into games from around July, is because of the lack of a sample size.
I would drop Bisu down on my list for sure, though, after his loss to Bogus
Flash
Stats
Jangbi
Fantasy
Hydra
Stork
Bisu
Jaedong
Baby
Soulkey
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Yeah I really like this one, though I'd swap Zero and Bisu.
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On December 28 2011 20:03 Bill Murray wrote:Stork's 5-1 is deceptive 3 of his wins were vs people whose worst matchup is arguably PvP (I'd argue Bisu's PvP has been shakier lately than his PvT, movie and tyson are definitely givens on the matter) + Show Spoiler +I mean, he just lost a PvP! He beat Hero, who is sort of a ZvP or ZvZ type of player with shakier ZvT... yeah, I just checked that, and I was correct.... but I don't trust hero as a test of Stork's PvZ Stork's PvT was always his best matchup, but we haven't seen if it is as good as it used to be this season. I don't really want to push him up to #2 having only seen him play PvPs and PvZ vs a not-even-A-class player. What if he loses to Light again in a PvT like he did half a year ago? The reason I made my ranking a few pages ago the way I did, dipping into games from around July, is because of the lack of a sample size. I would drop Bisu down on my list for sure, though, after his loss to Bogus Flash Stats Jangbi Fantasy Hydra Stork Bisu Jaedong Baby Soulkey
what a weird ranking. you have jangbi above stork when stork has the better record on khan and you have jaedong above baby when baby has the better record on 8.
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I think it's too early to put up a new power rank maybe we should wait after all teams have play than decide again ? currently the data is really insufficient to determine the best rank for our favourite players.
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On December 28 2011 19:26 FuRong wrote:
So I thought I'd jump back in here now that round 1 is finished.
Fyi, round 1 is not finished. Each team still has one game to play. The extra game will make a difference, given the competitiveness of the ranking.
And Bill Murray, to me Stork being 5-1 without a PvT is a very good sign for Stork. A player going 5-1 without a single game in their best match up (a match up that Stork is the 2nd high ELO of all-time in) is very impressive.
The game against Light, more than half a year ago, can't really be held against Stork in a January 2012 PR. Plus it was 2 Base Carriers against a Deep Six - just an odd game.
So I agree with you that Stork's 5-1 is deceptive. Deceptively better than it seems since he has missed out on a single opportunity to display his best match up. And he's 3-1 in PvP, so you can't really hold his loss there against him too much.
Speaking of match ups, Stats has had a perfect balance so far, playing 2 of each. We have a lot of information to base his ranking on, and with a 5-1 record I totally expect him to get a nice ranking, perhaps even #2 as you have if he does well against Khan.
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United States7639 Posts
On December 28 2011 20:03 Bill Murray wrote:Stork's 5-1 is deceptive 3 of his wins were vs people whose worst matchup is arguably PvP (I'd argue Bisu's PvP has been shakier lately than his PvT, movie and tyson are definitely givens on the matter) + Show Spoiler +I mean, he just lost a PvP! He beat Hero, who is sort of a ZvP or ZvZ type of player with shakier ZvT... yeah, I just checked that, and I was correct.... but I don't trust hero as a test of Stork's PvZ Stork's PvT was always his best matchup, but we haven't seen if it is as good as it used to be this season. I don't really want to push him up to #2 having only seen him play PvPs and PvZ vs a not-even-A-class player. What if he loses to Light again in a PvT like he did half a year ago? The reason I made my ranking a few pages ago the way I did, dipping into games from around July, is because of the lack of a sample size. I would drop Bisu down on my list for sure, though, after his loss to Bogus Flash Stats Jangbi Fantasy Hydra Stork Bisu Jaedong Baby Soulkey
Why are you ignoring his game against Zero? You don't need to use hero as a judgment for Stork's PvZ, because we saw it when he completely dominated Zero, who is no scrub Zerg. Going 5-1 playing only your weaker matchups is admirable. Although I do hope he wins a PvT this round (yeah, I'm looking at you, Flash).
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On December 28 2011 22:29 Sawamura wrote:
I think it's too early to put up a new power rank maybe we should wait after all teams have play than decide again ? currently the data is really insufficient to determine the best rank for our favourite players.
How many games would it take for you to feel we have sufficient data? A power rank isn't a statistical measurement, and therefore it doesn't need to be statistically significant. Sports sites put up power ranks for the NFL despite there being only 4 games a month. The Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons are both at 9-6 while going 2-2 in the month of December. There is not enough statistical data to rank one definitively over the other but that wouldn't stop me from putting Atlanta above Cincinnati in a power rank based on margin of victory/defeat, strength of opposition and overall quality of play. In the same way while 6 games may not be enough to tell us whether Stork or Stats is playing better right now, we can certainly debate it based on the quality of their opponents, the ease with which they won, and solidness of their play.
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Movie has been looking strong in PvP recently. If we were talking 8 months ago I might have dismissed a PvP victory over Movie pretty easily, but he definitely upped his game somewhere around round 5 or 6 of the last PL year.
You know, regarding Fantasy's loss to Last, I just took a peak at Last's record on TLPD. In his last 8 TvT, his only loss was to Flash. Granted, only Baby, Mind and Fantasy stand out as meaningful wins, but you have to go allllllllll the way back to April to find his next TvT loss. And he DOES get play time, so that's not the issue. As a matter of fact, Last is also undefeated this PL season with a 3-0 record, however, I'm not about to even consider him for a CBNC spot because TvT seems to be BY FAR his best MU. His TvP in particular is just terrible, with only 1 win in the past TWO YEARS.
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On December 29 2011 08:58 Mortality wrote:
Movie has been looking strong in PvP recently. If we were talking 8 months ago I might have dismissed a PvP victory over Movie pretty easily, but he definitely upped his game somewhere around round 5 or 6 of the last PL year.
You know, regarding Fantasy's loss to Last, I just took a peak at Last's record on TLPD. In his last 8 TvT, his only loss was to Flash. Granted, only Baby, Mind and Fantasy stand out as meaningful wins, but you have to go allllllllll the way back to April to find his next TvT loss. And he DOES get play time, so that's not the issue. As a matter of fact, Last is also undefeated this PL season with a 3-0 record, however, I'm not about to even consider him for a CBNC spot because TvT seems to be BY FAR his best MU. His TvP in particular is just terrible, with only 1 win in the past TWO YEARS.
he's not even the best T on STX so i can't justify giving him a spot here
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On December 29 2011 09:33 o[twist] wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 08:58 Mortality wrote:
Movie has been looking strong in PvP recently. If we were talking 8 months ago I might have dismissed a PvP victory over Movie pretty easily, but he definitely upped his game somewhere around round 5 or 6 of the last PL year.
You know, regarding Fantasy's loss to Last, I just took a peak at Last's record on TLPD. In his last 8 TvT, his only loss was to Flash. Granted, only Baby, Mind and Fantasy stand out as meaningful wins, but you have to go allllllllll the way back to April to find his next TvT loss. And he DOES get play time, so that's not the issue. As a matter of fact, Last is also undefeated this PL season with a 3-0 record, however, I'm not about to even consider him for a CBNC spot because TvT seems to be BY FAR his best MU. His TvP in particular is just terrible, with only 1 win in the past TWO YEARS. he's not even the best T on STX so i can't justify giving him a spot here
Uhm. I think you misread my post. "...I'm not about to even consider him for a CBNC spot..."
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1.  Flash (general agreement here)
2-5,
BaBy and  Stats played well this month, JangBi played well enough to stay in top 5 imo. possibly fit Stork in the last slot somewhere.
6
 Neo.G_Soulkey for nice wins
7-9
Jaedong and Bisu did not play well enough to be ranked higher than 7, and if they didnt have name value i wouldn't even put them on the list. they are 7-9 just because they are jaedong and bisu. fit EffOrt here as well, for his decent results.
10.
BeSt or Fantasy. BeSt for nice wins against good opponents, fantasy because of best's embarrassing loss to calm
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On December 29 2011 09:59 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 09:33 o[twist] wrote:On December 29 2011 08:58 Mortality wrote:
Movie has been looking strong in PvP recently. If we were talking 8 months ago I might have dismissed a PvP victory over Movie pretty easily, but he definitely upped his game somewhere around round 5 or 6 of the last PL year.
You know, regarding Fantasy's loss to Last, I just took a peak at Last's record on TLPD. In his last 8 TvT, his only loss was to Flash. Granted, only Baby, Mind and Fantasy stand out as meaningful wins, but you have to go allllllllll the way back to April to find his next TvT loss. And he DOES get play time, so that's not the issue. As a matter of fact, Last is also undefeated this PL season with a 3-0 record, however, I'm not about to even consider him for a CBNC spot because TvT seems to be BY FAR his best MU. His TvP in particular is just terrible, with only 1 win in the past TWO YEARS. he's not even the best T on STX so i can't justify giving him a spot here Uhm. I think you misread my post. "...I'm not about to even consider him for a CBNC spot..."
oh i didn't mean to suggest we were disagreeing 
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On December 28 2011 13:38 Crisium wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 05:49 Mortality wrote:
-Zero is now 3-3 and frankly he's had a fairly brutal list of opponents (IMO harder than Bisu's, who is also 3-3). Time to start thinking about the possibility of ranking him. Indeed. He looked dominating last game, although part of it was Leta just chilling with his M&M ball for too long. But I couldn't even keep track of how many bases ZerO had. I would seriously consider ZerO ranking above Bisu at this point. ZerO lost to two S-Class players in Stork and Fantasy and Calm who appeared to not be in Clam form at the time. Bisu also lost to Stork, so that's even. I'd say the PvP loss to free is comparable to the ZvZ loss to Calm. But the difference is that Bogus is not quite at Fantasy's level, so ZerO actually gets the advantage in losses. So statistically ZerO certainly has a shot at passing Bisu (as of game 6, game 7 may change things). Subjectively, both have been "meh" and "great" at times. Bisu still proving that Zergs are nothing more that sacrifices to the PvZ Shin, and ZerO proving that he can be brilliant and fail in any matchup depending on the day of the week. Hopefully both play in their game 7 and that decides things - including the slim possibility of neither making it (the PR is that competitive right now).
I agree. After a rough start, Zero has now shown us some extremely brilliant games (especially the game vs Leta yesterday). If we are giving Bisu a spot on the PR I think we should be equally careful in not shortchanging Zero.
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seem like Flash will be back to number 1
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Just to drop some statistics in order to revitalize this discussion...
All of this data is just pulled straight from TLPD. I'll give a bit of thought to it after dropping it here.
Top players based on +/- (wins minus losses):
1. Flash (5pts)
2. Stats, Stork and Baby (tie - 4pts)
5. Effort, Soulkey and Last (3pts)
8. Jangbi, Jaedong, Hydra, Piano, Fantasy (2pts)
I would advise against simply taking this data at face value. For example, a 2-1 record is only 66.7% wins whereas a 3-0 record is 100%, but due to sample size, you cannot definitely say that the 3-0 player is better. Especially considering that SC players tend to be very streaky.
Top 10 based on ELO attained directly from the current PL season:
1. Flash 2088
2. Baby 2074
3. Stats 2073
4. Stork 2065
5. Last 2056
6. Effort 2053
7. Soulkey 2050
8. Piano 2039
9. Jangbi 2036
10. Jaedong 2034
Noteworthy: Zero (2007) and Bisu (1991)
This measurement isn't a direct measure of how difficult a player's opponent list is because it effectively restarted everyone's ELO at 2000 at the start of the season and counts only PL games toward the ELO rating. So suppose you beat Flash in the first game of the season. Then it's a victory of a 2000 player over a 2000 player, not a victory over the top ranked player (alright, technically Bisu had the highest overall ELO at the time, but you know what I mean). Also, players who go WWWL are going to be penalized more than players who go LWWW against the same caliber competition because the WWWL player is almost guaranteed to have a higher ELO than his opponent at the time of loss, meaning he loses more points for the same game.
That said, this should give a rough idea of how players are progressing.
Top 10 total ELO:
1. Flash 2334
2. Bisu 2323
3. Jaedong 2245
4. Zero 2237
5. Hydra 2236
6. Fantasy 2235
7. Jangbi 2222
8. Effort 2211 (note: TLPD picked up his ELO right where it left off over a year ago, so this may not be an accurate reflection)
9. Baby 2209
10. Stats and Soulkey (tie - 2207)
Notable: Movie 2205
It's important to view this picture for what it is.
It shows us how Baby, Stats and Soulkey are progressing, how much further they need to go to mark themselves among the more proven players (all of the top 7 have a significant accomplishment from the past year -- a tournament final or better, or PL MVP in Bisu's case). They are definitely closing the gap, but based on statistics alone, I'd argue that they haven't proven themselves there yet.
It also shows that despite losses, We aren't seeing significant drops from players like Zero or Hydra or Bisu. In the grand scheme, those losses have not proven very relevant and shouldn't be taken as a cry for a slump.
Also it shows an interesting place for Movie who has been mostly overlooked over the past year, but has steadily gained ground. What nobody has truly realized yet is that this kid has a whopping 68.9% wins during 2011. Yes, you read that right. I'd criticize that Movie hasn't been as thoroughly tested as, say, Zero, and that since his games come almost exclusively from PL it's a bit easier to maintain a higher win percentage (in a standard OSL format 16 man tournament, it's impossible to achieve over 70% wins without at least making the finals -- 70% is the cutoff of going 3-0 in your group, 2-0 in Ro8 and 2-3 in semifinals).
Other noteworthy's are Stork, who is still under 2200 despite his impressive record so far this season, which includes victories over players with high ELO. The reality is that this shows exactly how much Stork declined at the end of the last PL year.
And Light. Despite an atrocious record, Light is sitting at 2183 ELO. With Light's record it's impossible to earn even a CBNC, but consider WHO he lost to. That's why Light's ELO has not changed very heavily. When considering a small sample size, who you beat is more important than how many.
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EPT
