Last night's State of the Game was probably the most controversial episode of all time. To me, the most interesting part was the Idra/Day9 debate. I've given it a lot of thought in order to clear my own mind on the topic. I think a lot of people have misunderstood or over-interpreted the arguments presented on each side when, in fact, both Sean and Greg's points were very narrow at their heart, though both have massive implications.
Here's Idra's distilled argument:
1) Slow Overlords can only scout certain builds successfully as a result of failures on the other guy's part (misplaced buildings, failure to position anti-Overlord units correctly)
2) Some of the aforementioned builds are impossible to counter without taking huge risks unless they can be scouted before they leave the P/T base
Idra's expressed desired outcome was that Zerg scouting be buffed or that the race have a "build that is safe against everything." People are getting really hung up on Idra's use of that particular phrase and it's easy to see why: if there were really one build that Zerg could do against everything, that would be quite imbalanced. However, I give Idra the benefit of the doubt and interpret the phrase a little differently. (If I'm right, then his hyperbole doesn't do his argument any favors, but it's a highly emotional topic and these things happen.)
I think what Idra really wants is simply for it to be physically possible for a Zerg to live through a given build having made every reasonable effort to scout said build as early as possible and having not taken too many risks with his own build. Given the current design of the game, that means making it possible for Zerg to scout those builds more quickly or making it possible for Zerg to defend those builds if the P/T build is scouted only after it moves out.
A lot of people are getting hung up on that step, as well, but one has to realize that just because it would be possible to defend a build doesn't mean it will be easy. Idra wants things to be easier for himself, of course, but kicking the difficulty down a notch from "literally impossible" (which is how Idra sees it) doesn't mean that it's suddenly going to be "so easy a bronze newbie can do it." In fact, it will most likely leave Idra as one of the few people who can pull it off even somewhat consistently.
Day9's distilled argument is, of course, pretty much a reaction to Idra's; he says that it's not yet empirically impossible that some Zerg will come up with a build that can flex to defend whatever moves out of the P/T base, and therefore Blizzard shouldn't get too hasty with the balance changes.
As far as I can tell, Day9's desired outcome (he doesn't state a desired outcome as clearly as Idra during the episode) is that the community continues to wait and eventually Zergs come up with builds that can react to a given P/T build at the earliest possible scouting point. Unfortunately, this is a really tough sell as it is both the solution that requires more time and the less emotionally-charged solution. There are a couple of really undesirable things that can happen as a result of taking the Day9 approach:
1) Eventually, no one plays Zerg. Day9 admits to the possibility during the episode 2) Blizzard (ignoring pro Zergs' anecdotal evidence entirely) gathers all the necessary empirical evidence to indicate what balance changes should be made, but fails to take the correct action. They aren't perfect, after all!
But all in all, it's another solid choice alongside the Idra option of "make balance changes now."
I hope this helps someone out there understand the whole picture better. I felt like I had reached at least some clarity on the topic after a few hours of thinking about it here and there, and I was still seeing forum posts on various sites that I felt grievously misapprehended the whole debate. Feel free to respond with your thoughts or questions, but please leave your emotions about Day9 and Idra as people out of it.
I feel like certain sides of the scouting argument also aren't presented.
Terran has unrestricted scouting for the cost of a weaker economy.
Protoss can't really scout Zerg until robo tech or hallucination.
Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I daresay that this thread will be benefitted if one or both parties posted in here with their reasoning.debates via forum post will be less likely to be emotionally charged, and we will have hopefully clear and concise arguments from high level persons in the community
On May 05 2011 12:40 TUski wrote: I daresay that this thread will be benefitted if one or both parties posted in here with their reasoning.debates via forum post will be less likely to be emotionally charged, and we will have hopefully clear and concise arguments from high level persons in the community
i agree with idra that zerg is currently in a bad spot for exactly those reasons - just look at how few top players choose zerg, and of those players, how hard it is for them to win things
however day9 is right that proving that there's a problem is essentially an impossible task
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
Both Terran and Protoss has builds that stop zerg all-ins without scouting them beforehand.
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
Both Terran and Protoss has builds that stop zerg all-ins without scouting them beforehand.
Zerg has that too. I assume you have a hidden premise, that Terran and Protoss don't lose as much as Zerg.
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
Both Terran and Protoss has builds that stop zerg all-ins without scouting them beforehand.
hit the nail on the head. baneling busts/roach/ling all-ins are for the most part, easy as pie to stop even scouting at last second. while on the other hand, terran/toss all-ins are nearing impossible to scout, and to defend it, you'd be incredibly behind, while the toss/terran might even be even after the exchange. it's painfully obvious that day9 studied mathematics and not philosophy. he's not very good at arguing logically, his reasoning is rife with fallaciousness.. i'd somewhat agree with day9 that the game isnt figured out yet, but its unfair to ask pro zergs whos life depends on prize winnings to live to just "sit and wait".
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
Both Terran and Protoss has builds that stop zerg all-ins without scouting them beforehand.
hit the nail on the head. baneling busts/roach/ling all-ins are for the most part, easy as pie to stop even scouting at last second. while on the other hand, terran/toss all-ins are nearing impossible to scout, and to defend it, you'd be incredibly behind, while the toss/terran might even be even after the exchange. it's painfully obvious that day9 studied mathematics and not philosophy. he's not very good at arguing logically, his reasoning is rife with fallaciousness.. i'd somewhat agree with day9 that the game isnt figured out yet, but its unfair to ask pro zergs whos life depends on prize winnings to live to just "sit and wait".
FYI the above post is best read with this song playing in the background.
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
Both Terran and Protoss has builds that stop zerg all-ins without scouting them beforehand.
hit the nail on the head. baneling busts/roach/ling all-ins are for the most part, easy as pie to stop even scouting at last second. while on the other hand, terran/toss all-ins are nearing impossible to scout, and to defend it, you'd be incredibly behind, while the toss/terran might even be even after the exchange. it's painfully obvious that day9 studied mathematics and not philosophy. he's not very good at arguing logically, his reasoning is rife with fallaciousness.. i'd somewhat agree with day9 that the game isnt figured out yet, but its unfair to ask pro zergs whos life depends on prize winnings to live to just "sit and wait".
FYI the above post is best read with this song playing in the background.
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
Both Terran and Protoss has builds that stop zerg all-ins without scouting them beforehand.
hit the nail on the head. baneling busts/roach/ling all-ins are for the most part, easy as pie to stop even scouting at last second. while on the other hand, terran/toss all-ins are nearing impossible to scout, and to defend it, you'd be incredibly behind, while the toss/terran might even be even after the exchange. it's painfully obvious that day9 studied mathematics and not philosophy. he's not very good at arguing logically, his reasoning is rife with fallaciousness.. i'd somewhat agree with day9 that the game isnt figured out yet, but its unfair to ask pro zergs whos life depends on prize winnings to live to just "sit and wait".
Sorry. How is studying math versus studying philosophy indicative of a lack of logical reasoning? Higher level math is all about constructing logical proofs.
It's absolutely fair to ask pro zergs to wait and explore. It sucks, but that's their problem. The development of most sports involve things that look "imbalanced" for a time, until strategies change and the so-called "metagame" evolves. The alternative, which Idra seems to suggest, is for Blizzard to constantly introduce new changes to weaken whatever strategy is currently dominating the metagame.
If baneling busts and roach/ling allins are "easy as pie to stop," why do pros continue to use them, and use them reasonably successfully?
I didn't even know this was a discussion on SOTG, I'll have to watch it to catch up with current events. Idra's argument has a lot of validity from what I've heard from this and what he says on his stream, there is no way that the zerg can ensure he is safe without being completely behind against a standard build. This leads to the feeling of economic cheese if a zerg goes for a 14 hatch, because there is just no way to scout after the first marine/sentry pops. The problem is less existent in ZvZ just because there isn't a sure fire way to completely deny scouting, although it is still evident with hidden ling allins or hidden roach allins. I'll edit again after I watch SOTG.
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
Both Terran and Protoss has builds that stop zerg all-ins without scouting them beforehand.
hit the nail on the head. baneling busts/roach/ling all-ins are for the most part, easy as pie to stop even scouting at last second. while on the other hand, terran/toss all-ins are nearing impossible to scout, and to defend it, you'd be incredibly behind, while the toss/terran might even be even after the exchange. it's painfully obvious that day9 studied mathematics and not philosophy. he's not very good at arguing logically, his reasoning is rife with fallaciousness.. i'd somewhat agree with day9 that the game isnt figured out yet, but its unfair to ask pro zergs whos life depends on prize winnings to live to just "sit and wait".
Sorry. How is studying math versus studying philosophy indicative of a lack of logical reasoning? Higher level math is all about constructing logical proofs.
that's fine and dandy, but starcraft balance can not be quantified with statistics. waaaay too random, too many intangibilities imo. derpdederp.
also "If baneling busts and roach/ling allins are "easy as pie to stop," why do pros continue to use them, and use them reasonably successfully?" morrow baneling busting an incredibly greedy jinro build? that's really the only example i can think of that matters. timing a baneling bust with no scouting, is incredibly difficult, compared to the numerous t/p cheeses available that are at least 10 times easier to execute.
also, this is going to turn into a silly argument with no right answer. so i'm just going to say we're both right to a degree. i just wish day9 could present his point better.
Roach/ling all-in is a special case right now. I'm not sure that P can be safe against it if they don't at least see it leaving the Zerg base, but the build has only been popular for a few weeks so it's probably not time to panic yet. Most of the stuff Zerg has extreme difficulty defending has been around much longer than that.
Baneling busts, though, can definitely be stopped as long as they are seen moving out, and P to some extent can stop them just with good FFs even if the bust isn't scouted 'til it's at their base.
Having just watched the episode, and having heard a lot of people say "day9 couldn't answer Idra's question", I would actually just point out that Day9's main point is that it is impossible to discuss balance with Idra because he is firstly completely set in his own opinions, and secondly he can't discuss it dispassionately. You can see from the reactions of the other people in the episode that Idra can't be taken seriously as far as any balance debate goes. The base of his reasoning begins with the "fact" that he is the best player therefore any reason he loses is unreasonable.
HOWEVER, getting to the point. The game could be made a lot more predictable if the fog of war was removed, and then maybe there would be a lot less cheese and everybody would play really conservatively all the time. It seems as though he feels like Terran and Protoss have this complete knowledge all the time. The thing is Zerg can deny BOTH T and P scouting with detection vs P and with unpredictable building placement vs T.
Another central argument of Idra is that T and P can wall in, but Z cannot. IS THIS ACTUALLY TRUE? No, you can use queens at the start to block the ramp and then once you have creep there you can block with buidings. Whether you want to wall in as Z is a totally different question.
Do zerg have strong tools for detection? YES! Overlords are fantastic early scouting since anti air takes a little while. Usually once they have stuff to kill your overlord then you have seen some info. Then you have creep, which give incredible vison of the map, also you can put 1 zergling anywhere on the map. Then you've got overseers and overlords with speed. It's true that Z don't have 1 particular unit or thing which is the scouting unit, but they have other things which could be argued to be imba. I mean, come on, Creep is absolutely ridiculously OP as a tool. Zero invesment = total map vision.
Lastly, I want to point out that Z is the only race that can scout something coming out of a base, and then produce a massive amount of units at once to counter. "oh snap Voids" - 'make 20 hyrdas'....ok good.
I don't think Idra has any particular complaints about post-Lair scouting. The case he was making on the show is limited to early game (I would say before ~6 minutes) when Overlord scouting can be totally denied by careful building placement and placement of anti-air units around the P/T base.
I can attest from personal experience that my slow Overlords only ever scout anything when the other player falls down on the job somehow--by not placing anti-air around their base, not noticing the Overlord until it's too late, or by placing buildings near the edge of their base rather than in the middle. That's just anecdotal and I'm merely mid-Master level, though. The big exception is Shattered Temple, where it's often possible to hide Overlords on the edge of the map and sneak them into the other guy's base. Even then it's a bit of a dice roll, though, since eventually P/T should learn not to "hide" buildings near that side of their base.
P doesn't have any anti air until stalker comes out, by which time you've got the information. T is a problem because marine pops out and kills OL, but I mean if you don't see what you want to see from the front of his base, then is it realy a massive issue to suicide an OL? Compare this cost to that of a Scan (loss of mule).
Also, I want to know how fast you can spread creep with 1 dedicated queen for creep spreading.
Anyway, I'm certainly not providing all the answers, only want to point out that the way Idra tried to narrow the issue down really isn't a good way to look at balance, and I think this is what DayJ was trying to say.
BTW, I'm not asking rhetorical questions, I actually am interested in what the answers are, because I'm convinced there must be a solution to be found within the game already.
On May 05 2011 13:21 apalemorning wrote: it's painfully obvious that day9 studied mathematics and not philosophy. he's not very good at arguing logically, his reasoning is rife with fallaciousness.. i'd somewhat agree with day9 that the game isnt figured out yet, but its unfair to ask pro zergs whos life depends on prize winnings to live to just "sit and wait".
I would argue that the math is very important in SC, since it is the only tangible measure of a state of a game (the only way to measure if you are ahead or behind. Income, harvester count, unit count for example).
You are also not referring directly to philosophy with that statement, but rather Rhetoric. While it is an important part of philosophy, it is separate from it.
I don't think Day9 is telling the pros to "sit and wait" but rather is saying you need to experiment around and figure out what works to overcome the current problems they face. They are the ones after all, who control the state of the game (although not directly). I think this is true, and the reason Day9 refers to this is because he spent so much time playing SC1, and dealt with it first hand. The game is still new and innovative strategies are still being developed.
However, I think that is a lot more difficult then he makes it seem, and I feel like he is implying that there is a solution, and I don't think that is necessarily the case.
On May 05 2011 12:30 mizU wrote: I feel like certain sides of the scouting argument also aren't presented.
Terran has unrestricted scouting for the cost of a weaker economy.
Protoss can't really scout Zerg until robo tech or hallucination.
Both Terran and Protoss have a hard time scouting bane busts/roach/sling all-ins.
Zergs have trouble scouting mid-game because once marines/stalkers are out sloverlords die quickly, but overseers and changelings come in at this point.
I feel the game is pretty balanced as of now.
IdrA has also said that Protoss and Terran scouting could use a buff too. He suggested Hallucination being easier to research/Obs at Cyber Core tech and MULES/Scans turning into 25 energy (with appropriate tweaks to MULES). It is just that Zerg can die so easily, that it is more problematic for Zerg.
It is because with Chrono, Spawn Larva, MULEs, Reactors, Warp Gates and 6 starting workers, the game developes faster. But scouting from BW never changed speed. So attacks and all-ins are coming faster, but scouting is too slow and shitty to counteract it in SC2.
*he said this in an interview or post, not in SotG.
I don't think Day9 is telling the pros to "sit and wait" but rather is saying you need to experiment around and figure out what works to overcome the current problems they face.
Not pointing you out specifically, but a lot of people are falling back on this arguement. Do you guys honestly think IdrA and other Zergs aren't experimenting? He wakes up, plays SC2, and eats almost every day. He doesn't just ladder for 10 hours. He has said he experimented, but nothing works. They do have a few new builds popping up every once in a while, but I don't think it is safe to assume that there is a vast amount of strategies to explore.
EPT
