Insane Mafia - Page 99

On November 02 2010 09:48 infinitestory wrote:

I don't know. Claiming the mods lie to justify his own... I see Aeres' whole thing as a very fleshed out but shitty plan. His alibi has no clear contradictions in it (even the slip up in talking makes sense if you think about someone who must act as if there are multiple bodyguards to defend DrH)
I'm not saying Aeres is town. I'm not saying he's a good or valuable player. I'm saying that youngminii's eagerness to lynch Aeres based on a lie, one which Aeres made a solid defense for, is suspicious.

On top of that, youngminii refuses to defend himself, he defends DrH vigorously, and now DrH comes to his defense. Perhaps you're the one who must stop being blind, because youngminii's unexplained attempt at martyrdom is beyond suspicious, and almost nobody has made a single comment on it up until my post.

On November 02 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
In fact explain this to me:

Let's assume Aeres is a pro-town liar and claims he's the bodyguard in addition to a Cruiseship Captain.

According to Aeres the CC can leave town for one night and avoid being hit.

If Aeres is the CC and bodyguard, and pro-town then why would he reveal this? If the Scum believe that Aeres is the bodyguard then they'd notice that Aeres would be out of town and just shoot Dr.H on Night 1.

From what we know, Dr.H hasn't been shot. So if Aeres is indeed pro-town why didn't Mafia take the shot at Dr.H? Just ignore anything about Dr.H being Scum also for the time being. I just want to breakdown what motive and scenario it makes sense for Aeres to be pro-town if you truly believe he is.

On November 02 2010 09:29 infinitestory wrote:
Going to offer my argument against youngminii now. This is likely the antithesis to DrH's post.

by request:
An analysis of youngminii

It's interesting to note that youngminii made only one post on Day 1. It "explains" his choice for mayor (not really, since it's exactly 8 words long). He hasn't even expounded on it as of now, and he didn't respond to questioning.

Two conclusions. Nothing to show how he got there. He still hasn't said anything about it, but at this point it might be moot.

I'll be honest, this post was stupid considering it was my only post for day 1, I'm not surprised I was lynched. I was tired and I had just read the role PM when I posted this and after hastily reading through the thread, I posted this in case I didn't have time to post anything later (which was what ended up happening).


That's fair. I'm not going to question an unexpected leave. Still, you should respond to the questions we asked on Day 1.

Fair enough. Half the questions were a "why does he only have one post" kind of thing though.


This isn't much of a defense, actually. Basically, he says there is no way that his lynch-dodge could be a red role. Except that it was pointed out that it is actually possible for a lynch-dodging role to be red (e.g. dodge lynch the first time, like a red veteran). I agree that it's not beneficial for him to roleclaim at this point (at least not fully), but instead of using "It's not beneficial to town" as a reason, he uses "I'm obviously not red" as a reason. That's odd.

I've never seen a red role have an unlynchable role. I mean I read DrH's post and I see that there could be but at the time that was what I believed. Also, veterans cannot bypass lynches, they can only take an extra night hit.


He keeps dodging, but he's been adamant about revealing nothing about his role so far. I wouldn't expect anything different. The question is valid, as it's a miswording from Artanis.
The less information red has about town the better imo.


Reveals that he hasn't been reading the game carefully in any way (doesn't know about bumatlarge's circle powers OR fishball's circle). Continues to claim that his role could only possibly be blue.
It's true, I skimmed about half of the day 1 posts, but I admitted that before. Just so you know, I did know about fishball's circle but not about bum's.


Here begins (?) his wagonmongering against Aeres. Even Glasse pointed out that there's no reason to interpret Artanis' words this way.
I probably shouldn't have said that, it was just something that popped up in my head and I decided to write it to stir some thoughts. I did add the "Maybe" at the end, like you know, "NOT A GUARANTEE" at the end of those ads.


This is legitimate. He does find an odd contradiction in Aeres' post which becomes one of the main reasons he's questioned and eventually revealed.


It's true that Aeres should have been under much more suspicion at this point (and indeed, we soon began questioning Aeres further). However, the scumtell he points out isn't exactly great, as a sane scum who intended to incite distrust of DC would have claimed bodyguard and acted like the only one.


His first post in a long time. LAL isn't even valid unless there's reason to believe he made that claim to deceive the town. Many people (I think Pandain and DrH both said this, which might be an only-once kind of thing) have stated that lying can be beneficial to the town.
Fair enough, I don't like lies though.


At this point, he starts attacking Pandain's arguments as spam. No doubt Pandain gets very worked up and the back-and-forth is ... length, but the argumentation isn't contentless.
I like Pandain, I do. I don't like the way he posts sometimes, just as I know some people don't like the way I post. I'm allowed to make my opinions public.


Focus on Aeres? Why is Aeres' revelation of lying more conclusive than the several contradictions Pandain pointed out? At this point, I'm worried he's reading selectively, and he seems to be actively distracting the town from DrH and putting attention on Aeres.
I don't consider them contradictions. He's just going over the same points over and over ("you said you could prove yourself 100% but now you can't because of reasons x y z which I don't trust so you're scum") and I thought it was getting very tiresome/useless.


This is untrue. A player who plays badly or in a discouraged way is not necessarily red. He's just not an asset to town. But we don't lynch to get rid of just anybody. We must lynch to get rid of REDS. So far, nobody has shown decisively that Aeres lied to deceive the town.
I dunno about you but if there were no reds up for lynch, I'd lynch the bad player. At the moment there's no one that looks scummier than Aeres and the same was true for the time of that post.


That's fair. I didn't play in Haunted Mafia, so I wouldn't know.


good god, and you're trying to lesson us on what's unlikely and hypothetical, what's concrete and conclusive.
hahahahhahaha


Assuming Node is telling the truth, the hit is decided at the beginning of the day.


The mafia could also put us into a state of "as soon as someone is discovered as lying, lynch." He also makes a very interesting comment, that Aeres doesn't seem to have made up his role -> He must have made it up and then had a "team of people" peer review it. He's really finding the most outlandish ways to paint Aeres as red.
It may be outlandish. I don't think that makes me scum though.


This is just WRONG. Killing someone to find out their alignment is not what we lynch for.
It was a bit of a joke post (hence the ^_^) but I shouldn't have posted that in the first place. What I should have posted was "If there's no one that sounds scummier than Aeres right now, we should lynch him and see what he flips, then we can figure out what to do/who to lynch based on his alignment".


This is fair. It makes sense with his alibi, but that doesn't mean it isn't suspicious.


This is true and fair.


This is also true and fair.


I would recommend you defend yourself. If you don't, probably nobody will. YOU should create the counter argument.
I meant counter argument from Aeres about the argument against him.


That might be a bit of a stretch. I doubt there are three circles (aside from the mafia), so the DT and Elder would have to be in either bum's circle or fishball's circle. Remember, fishball only has 3 people in his circle, including himself.


Those arguments are not idiotic. We don't know enough about Aeres to declare him as scum. If you are waiting for a counterargument against yourself, maybe you should produce it. That second part is the main thing I find wrong with this post.


This continues to make 0 sense. Why would you not feel the need to defend yourself?
Fine, fine, I'm defending myself.


OK. I apologize for missing posts (I know I missed one, but I can't find it >____>)
Youngminii has been very concerned with Aeres and getting Aeres lynched without evidence. It seems either scummy or evident of a DT who doesn't know how to play and is martyring himself. Except, how many DTs can dodge lynches? >__>
Youngminii adamantly refuses to defend himself. I can't possibly imagine what that means, but if anybody wants to supply a theory, I REALLY want to hear it.

On November 02 2010 09:50 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


He NEVER attempted martyrdom. This isn't the first time you've twisted peoples arguments to make them more extreme . Come on dude.

Aeres didn't make any defense. He said he had a pro-town plan, didn't say what it was, then when I asked him if he was trying to soak hits he said yes when it';s clear reading his original claim that that is not a viable plan AT ALL.

And shitting on youngminii for defending me is hilarious when Aeres has been one of my most fervent defenders since the first day lol

On November 02 2010 09:56 infinitestory wrote:

1) If "I'm not going to defend myself against your argument" isn't martyrdom, I have NO clue what is. Enlighten me.

2) I don't think Aeres had a viable plan. His plan was terrible. That doesn't make it scummy for the reasons that youngminii listed. Aeres wanted to defend you, and I see no contradiction in trying to produce an extra bodyguard for the mafia to hit. It might not be a pretty or good solution, but it is not a scummy solution. Aeres explained his plan in full, and nobody's found a lie within that plan yet. That is what I mean by a solid defense.

3) It's more the fact that youngminii comes out of absolutely nowhere to defend you. Aeres defending you since the start is all fine and dandy, but youngminii's defense of you comes fairly out of the blue.

On November 02 2010 10:02 Ace wrote:
@infitestory: Aeres did not explain his plan until DC revealed he never claimed bodyguard AND I called Aeres out on his lie. He outlined everything WAY after he caught lying. Big difference.

On November 02 2010 09:58 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


martyrdom is saying "goa head lynch me idc" like AERES and SiNiquity did. Did I mention Aeres did that? Aeres did that.

no he didn't explained his plan in full. he didn't explain his plan at all. he was intentionally vague and then when I asked what his plan could be he jumped immediately on to what I was talking about. HUGE difference.

out of the blue? what makes a defense out of the blue or not? what does that mean "coming out of nowhere?" where should he come from?

On November 01 2010 11:43 Aeres wrote:
Alright, it's confession time.

I was indeed lying. I am not a Bodyguard.

When 666 was accused of roleclaiming Bodyguard, I freaked out a bit. I figured that if he was indeed a Bodyguard, then Mafia might try to take him down and leave the Doc defenseless. I didn't want that to happen, so I pretended to be Bodyguard to throw Mafia off and give the town some time to plan. There wasn't much I could have done as a townie with the role I have, based as it is on self-preservation; that role is more useful in the hands of a Mafia. I figured that I might as well try and make use of the role I had, and see if it did any good.

When I had typed out that post of me false-claiming, I just looked at the post I had made, pondering if this was a good move. In the end, after like 5 minutes of thinking, I decided that I wouldn't know until I tried.

I tried a risky strategy, and I fucked up. I had a feeling my plan would either work splendidly or fail miserably. Clearly, the latter possibility occurred, since 666 wasn't the Bodyguard at all. Nothing really else to say... I took a chance and missed the mark.

I meant what I said when I stated I was acting for the good of the town. At this point, I understand if my word has little value, but I am not lying when I say I am town.

(I wanted to experiment in this game, since it was unorthodox to begin with. I apologize for screwing up town by being too bold. =( Please don't hate me....)

On November 02 2010 08:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


First post:


This was fishy because he made no attempt to back this up. However I felt that a vote for fishball was less fishy than a last minute change from fishball to me so I made SiNiquity my #1 vote target. After SiNiquity martyred himself I switched back to youngminii, who dodged the lynch and SiNiquity died. I'll talk about the lynch dodge later.



It's too hard to tell a good excuse for inactivity for a bad one. This is nonconclusive.

I will say this. Mafia's favorite thing to do is to make a player look suspicious because "he is making an excuse for being inactive" or because "oh they're inactive". So many players are usually inactive in a game mafia just has to swing the inactive bandwagon on to a blue player. In a normal set-up inactive players often have power roles and post rarely in the thread in fear that they'll somehow out themselves to the mafia. Be wary of hyperfocus on inactive players.



Unlynchable/Judas can just as well be a mafia role as a town role. The bold part struck me as strange because I think youngminii knows better than to use such a WIFOM argument. His second part "lynches bypass the two lives thing" is irrelevant. Obviously that is not his role since he dodged the lynch.

He paints me as relying on the metagame, which is not the case. I've referred to it and used it in my analysis, I haven't relied on it. I don't feel the metagame should be totally ignored. We as a town agreed to lynch an inactive on the first day and I felt that YM was the most suspicious amongst the inactives. It's simple.

I responded to his post and this argument didn't really go anywhere.

Pandain basically says here "We don't want you to roleclaim just tell us about your role and why you didn't die (aka roleclaim plz)". Youngminii doesn't fall into this potential trap and doesn't comment. Good.



His point here is good. The town has nothing to gain from youngminii roleclaiming at this point. what they do have is a potentially good role to lose.



YoungMinii doesn't seem to like Pandain D: (then again I guess you could say the same thing about me times a billion in this thread.)

Pandain is pretty clearly trying to backtrack his way out of the fact that he was rolefishing here. YoungMinii does a good job of explaining why he disagrees with Pandain but is being quite harsh.

I can confirm from watching his behind the scenes play in haunted mafia that youngminii is just a harsh dude, it's part of his personality. I thought he and quickstriker were gonna kill eachother in irc D:



Drawing way too heavy of a conclusion from that post already. This is a pretty early accusation of Aeres and it's interesting to note that it came before Ace essentially started the Aeres bandwagon. If the mafia wanted to kill Aeres, why would the focus on him so specifically? Why would they continue this focus after Aeres came out as not being bodyguard.

If Aeres is town, it's pretty simple. He's the easiest target to lynch because he lied and admitted it. This is before Aeres lied though.

However Aeres claims were very suspicious and youngminii's suspicions aren't poorly founded. I wasn't necessarily convinced that he was a bodyguard but I did want to believe it (as having 2 bg's would be nice D

[r]This is where I start to disagree, YM is gunning for someone right now, and it feels like he is just dying to start a bandwagon. What a better way than to post something inflammatory like “Aeres is scum”, this is bound to cause controversy because Aeres hasn’t been proved lying and even though he it is discovered he lied later I still think YM is WAY to focused on starting a bandwagon against Aeres.[/r]


Putting a lot of pressure on Aeres here, but it comes off as sensible to me. Aeres roleclaim was illogical and youngminii is catching him in some inconsistent claims. This is a good town post if you ask me.

[r]You see Aeres’ role claim as illogical but I considered doing the same thing. I really didn’t think it would cause the hubbub it did when Aeres did so I’m glad I didn’t but just the same to a new player it seems like a sensible thing to do. The body guard is revealed so hey, I’ll claim to throw the mafia off.[/r]


Good catch. Why would Aeres say this?

[r]Again from a new players perspective Aeres is making a lot of sense, I would have said the same thing in his position.[/r]


this is an improtant part of the post because it points out a possible mafia motivation for Aeres' actions. The people jumping on the youngminii bandwagon have tried to claim that "Aeres play makes sense as town not mafia" when it's been demonstrated a few times that's not really quite the case.

[r]Okay fair enough but I don’t know what youngminii bandwagon you’re talking about, at this point there are no votes for YM (in fact I’m the first vote which is almost 7 hours away).[/r]


Lynch All Liarsss

[r]Sounds so good on paper right? LAL, great pro town catch phrase. But everyone lies a little bit in mafia and this is just and inflammatory post against Aeres.[/r]






He is very insistent on ending the argument I'm having with Pandain. Now I agree Pandain's arguments were illogical and dumb, but his intense focus on the Aeres bandwagon is something people brought up as suspicious.

Why is it suspicious?

Mafia don't focus down on a target like that unless they REALLY want them dead, especially this early in the game when their voting power isn't that strong. Mafia change their targets to what they think is the easiest, what's gonna bring the least criticism on them, what arguments does the town want to hear?

A townie has every reason to focus down on the player they most suspect, since it is essential that scumlynches occur. Anything else could very well be mafia noise and distraction. Attempts to discredit focus don't cut it for me.

[r]It’s suspicious because of his single mindedness, and of how little substance his posts have. He has had some good points but a lot of what he’s said is inflammatory and meant to rile up the town. I’m going to say it right now, I’m not experience at mafia so most of my arguments are face value, I wasn’t in haunted IRC so I don’t knew how he operates. From my perspective it looks like he’s trying to get an Aeres bandwagon started without considering everything.[/r]


This is a good post. Pandain never responded though of course.

[r]Good post because it’s bashing Pandain who you currently have a beef with.[/r]


Continual focus on Aeres

[r]Without any supporting evidence.[/r]


Defending me. While I'm glad somebody agrees Pandains arguments were dumb mafia would have a good motivation to attach themselves to me and make it appear as though they are on my side. If they die and flip red the mafia can easily use that to get me lynched. That's why I don't like speculating too much about factions, it can really go either way.

[r]The point is not that he’s defending you but that he continues to attack Pandain.[/r]






This is the truth, really. It causes way more harm to the town than it does to the mafia.

This I disagree with. If we knew somehow that Aeres was 100% town it would be dumb to lynch him especially when the role "Cruiseship Captain" that he claimed could be valuable.

[r]More attempts at bandwagoning Aeres WITH NO EVIDENCE. Also more shots at Pandain and one at infinitestory[/r]




Fair enough.





Now i'm not sure. The cruiseship captain seems like it could be a legit role. This is really not useful speculation since we don't know what Artanis is thinking.

[r]More speculation mixed in with his attacks on Aeres.[/r]


True. Pandain is a pretty scummy town player.

[r]In your opinion (and his… there seems to be a connection between you and YM?)[/r]


Kills for information, not a strategy I like. I suppose there is no better alternative, we have to lynch somebody and ym/ace made a good case for Aeres.

[r]There is a better alternative, lynch YM[/r]


Good point here.

[r]Actually the soft claim was pretty convincing to me, he STILL gets in an attack on Aeres.[/r]










I'm not sure Amber read the thread all the way through. He didn't catch my roleclaim and a few other bits of key information so I'm just gonna disregard the first part here.

Amber's entire argument here is pretty much meta. Youngminii makes the case for his lynch of Aeres. This is a good post by YM imo.

[r]It’d be fun if one of his posts didn’t contain a personal attack, regardless he’s still hitting Aeres because he lied, at this point BIG SCREAMING DEAL. I don’t care that Aeres lied, it makes sense to me and I think YM is desperately trying to get a bandwagon going based simply on “the lie” which if you just read his posts might make you think the lie caused half the town to be killed.[/r]
________________________________________



Another good point by youngminii. IMO this shows that he isn't a mafia hellbent on lynching Aeres (could be a mafia trying to do something else) but is merely interested in lynching whoever the best target is at the time.

If he was mafia wanting a bandwagon on Aeres, there is no reason to make a post cautioning the town that he might be a VI.

[r]Hell bent hehe perhaps you forgot all his other posts then? He’s just about as hell bent as you can get… did you already forget the LAL shit? Other than that he does make a good point here, why did Aeres vote for himself?[/r]


amber made a dumb mistake here : /

maybe i should read through ambers posts

Well that's the end of YM's posts.

I think youngminii is a pro-town player. Amber's attempts to metagame and make youngminii look mafia for it were pathetic and fell flat on their face. He has shown that he is willing to consider a better target than Aeres should it arise, and his arguments against Aeres in the first place are mostly good ones. Aside from that he's contributed other useful posts throughout the thread.

Now I'll talk about the lynch dodge. I know of three roles that can dodge lynches:
unlynchable (either mafia or town)
saulus (mafia)
judas (town)

The unlynchable does not get lynched the first time he is lynched. The second time it will work.

The saulus is a mafia player that when lynched the first time becomes town. I consider this an OP role because the saulus can then release the mafia list, unless the saulus is a player intentionally kept in the dark about who else is mafia.

the judas is a town player that when lynched the first time becomes mafia. Opposite of Saulus. My main concern for youngminii is that this is his role.

It is also possible that a bus type of role acted on youngminii/SiN or that a pardoner type role was somehow involved. Ultimately speculation is nonconclusive and i'd be highly suspicious of further attempts to force youngminii to roleclaim.

On November 02 2010 08:42 Hyperbola wrote:
I honestly do not know who to vote for right now. Nothing seems solid. I'm gonna vote for someone random so I don't get modkilled.

On November 02 2010 08:41 Hyperbola wrote:
#vote Node

On November 02 2010 10:06 infinitestory wrote:

1) hey siniquity cemented himself on our lynch list day 1 for martyring himself, thanks for reminding me about that
2) that doesn't sound particularly vague to me

3) Don't use that worthless rhetoric. He came out of the blue because he had one post on day 1, and only two (?) posts before he started defending you. You even noted that. That's why he was your #1 lynch on day 1, remember?

On November 02 2010 10:09 NB wrote:



It happens to be that node is the guy who has role to predict who mafia will kill next night.... lynching Node clearly an action to prevent nurse to save people.... for now, i will have my vote on Hyperbola while u guys bandwagon-ing on Aeres who i am 60% sure to be a result of mafia framing....

On November 02 2010 10:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:


[r]I think YM is the best Scum target we have, he’s consistently tried to get a bandwagon going on a player who probably made an honest mistake, he attacks Pandain over and over and over again and tries to shut the discussion about your townieness down. I’m actually getting suspicious of you know especially since you went really easy on YM imo. Your analysis was really soft and you got in several good shots at Pandain while you were at it.[/r]

On November 02 2010 10:13 infinitestory wrote:
I'm done arguing about this. I've heard both sides.
You bring up valid points. Aeres did lie. He did confuse the town. He did have holes in his play. But he ended up revealing it all.
I think I bring up valid points. Youngminii is far too fanatic about lynching Aeres. Youngminii didn't defend himself for a good while. Youngminii's posting behavior is erratic. But he's defended himself now.

I'm going to keep my vote on youngminii. I'll stand by my own beliefs.

I still don't want ANYONE bandwagoning on either candidate. I want everyone to read both sides of every argument. I hope we can at least agree that bandwagoning is undesirable, and that we should apply pressure to those who blindly vote or voted.