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On November 02 2010 10:45 NB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 10:13 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 02 2010 10:09 NB wrote:On November 02 2010 08:42 Hyperbola wrote:
I honestly do not know who to vote for right now. Nothing seems solid. I'm gonna vote for someone random so I don't get modkilled. On November 02 2010 08:41 Hyperbola wrote:
#vote Node It happens to be that node is the guy who has role to predict who mafia will kill next night.... lynching Node clearly an action to prevent nurse to save people.... for now, i will have my vote on Hyperbola while u guys bandwagon-ing on Aeres who i am 60% sure to be a result of mafia framing.... he's making a placeholder vote and it's clear he's not intending to start a bandwagon come on dude you are 60% sure to be a mafia framing? lol where did you get that statistic? everyone has a special role... also im taking note seriously... but yeah, i made that number up i just feel really unsafe when follow major bandwagon :<.... if thats a place holder vote and he is changing his, ima change mine :D
so follow the minor bandwagon instead? both youngminii/aeres have nearly identical sized bandwagons
why single out aeres?
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On November 02 2010 10:40 youngminii wrote:
Okay maybe I made a giant assumption about the Cruiseship Captain role's authenticity. I always thought it was just assumed to be made up along with the whole bodyguard role.
I just want to point this out, from the Day 2 post.
On November 01 2010 08:10 LSB wrote:
At least some people stayed quiet. One person left the town to do some illegal activity legally, another person put on his favorite lingerie and admired himself all night.
It's been said before by Artanis that there are no clues directed to players, but there could be clues directed to certain roles in the game. This is the closest connection I can find.
Now if this is indeed the Cruise Ship Captain, what does "illegal activity legally" means? This would be for another discussion.
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The fact that its to "do illegal activity legally" seems like it might imply it's a mafia role as well?
there are no laws on the open ocean ;o
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On November 02 2010 10:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 10:45 NB wrote:On November 02 2010 10:13 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 02 2010 10:09 NB wrote:On November 02 2010 08:42 Hyperbola wrote:
I honestly do not know who to vote for right now. Nothing seems solid. I'm gonna vote for someone random so I don't get modkilled. On November 02 2010 08:41 Hyperbola wrote:
#vote Node It happens to be that node is the guy who has role to predict who mafia will kill next night.... lynching Node clearly an action to prevent nurse to save people.... for now, i will have my vote on Hyperbola while u guys bandwagon-ing on Aeres who i am 60% sure to be a result of mafia framing.... he's making a placeholder vote and it's clear he's not intending to start a bandwagon come on dude you are 60% sure to be a mafia framing? lol where did you get that statistic? everyone has a special role... also im taking note seriously... but yeah, i made that number up i just feel really unsafe when follow major bandwagon :<.... if thats a place holder vote and he is changing his, ima change mine :D so follow the minor bandwagon instead? both youngminii/aeres have nearly identical sized bandwagons why single out aeres?
.... what? let me check that... i saw lots of people changing from young to aeres....
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ok you are right!.. its 6vs5... close
remind me of you voting for InfiniteStory to check if anyone protecting him or not 
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On November 02 2010 10:55 NB wrote:ok you are right!.. its 6vs5... close remind me of you voting for InfiniteStory to check if anyone protecting him or not
I did that to see if anyone would jump to his defense in a scummy way and then switched to myself as a blank vote.
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:40 youngminii wrote:
Okay maybe I made a giant assumption about the Cruiseship Captain role's authenticity. I always thought it was just assumed to be made up along with the whole bodyguard role.
....well
I thought about it, and this totally explains a lot of your actions, including why you were incredibly convinced his plan was to avoid suspicion while framing DC, and why you are so completely certain that Aeres should be lynched. UGH this makes a good amount of my analysis worthless. -_-
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:55 NB wrote:ok you are right!.. its 6vs5... close remind me of you voting for InfiniteStory to check if anyone protecting him or not
tbh it is 7 vs 5 following kitaman's vote
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On November 02 2010 10:31 Nemesis wrote:
Well I'm back and I've been reading a lot.
Yum Yum
Time to give my input on things.
1. LAL is a BAAAAAAAAAADDDDDDDDDDDDDDD policy. What is important is not that they lied or what they lied about, but their reasons for lying aka their motive. Although I do find Aeres martyring himself as fishy.
2. If you are going to go with LAL policy, why aren't you gunning for DrH too, YM and Ace?
3. DoctorH, I have FoS on, but I don't really want to lynch him at this point as he is mayor, and can really help in the lategame if he is indeed town. Besides, he is always in the spotlight, more chance for him to slipup like he's been slowly doing all day.
4. For the youngminii bandwagon, I also have FoS on youngminii but I wouldn't really lynch him yet, and I find it weird how they are ignoring that Ace was also tried to get people to bandwagon for Aeres, but his name is not being mentioned when he's essentially doing the same thing that they are lynching youngminii for.
5. It seems that youngminii and doctorH are defending each other, another thing I find suspicious
6. I don't agree with fishing for inactives is a bad thing. With all these back and forth going on between you guys, the inactives are left out of the spotlight: a perfect place for mafia to hide. Also, inactives makes any kind of post analysis useless on them. For now, I'll vote Veldril.
1.)I already explained that Dr.H was never caught lying. Aeres was. Read my posts before making stuff up. Thanks.
2.) I didn't get a bandwagon going on Aeres. I started a lynch on Aeres. If I was starting a bandwagon I wouldn't be using logical arguments, or you know the fact that Aeres lied as proof that he is scum.
3.) How the hell would looking for inactives benefit us when we have a guy that lied, an unconfirmed Mayor, and several people all discussing relevant game information? Come on, at least pretend to know what you're talking about.
How about you give us a complete train of thought. You are being wishy washy on your conclusions here. You find YM and Dr.H defending each other, which they really are not doing, as suspicious. You also have a FoS on Dr.H, and even claim that he has slipped up - but you won't go as far to accuse him as Scum.
Seems to me you're trying to save Aeres from being lynched - even though you say he is indeed Fishy.
So what's the verdict, chum?
On November 02 2010 10:38 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 08:56 Ace wrote:
As an example, remember the greatest lie ever told in a Mafia game on TL.net is Caller's bullshit Insane Busdriver claim, 2 days after he led the town to believe he was another role. The town bought it hook, line and sinker because "oh Caller was just trying to help" and walla - 2 dead townes, Caller escapes THREE lynches and the town loses.
For the record, I never believed that bastard. I was the one who caught him too, and they killed me, the one guy who was pushing for his death  I can already smell a lot of shit in this game that doesn't add up.
Well you were one of the few hopes the town had for winning that game.
Are you smelling what the Rock is cookin' ?
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On November 02 2010 10:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 10:55 NB wrote:ok you are right!.. its 6vs5... close remind me of you voting for InfiniteStory to check if anyone protecting him or not I did that to see if anyone would jump to his defense in a scummy way and then switched to myself as a blank vote.
and i found you protecting a guy :D...
EXPLAIN YOUR RELATIONSHIP!
+ Show Spoiler +
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hmm, i wana have you guys opinion on this: so Node said DCLXVI will die tonight!
we also lost our 1 and only bodyguard!
who should the medic protect night2? mayor or DCLXVI assuming we only have 1 medic?....
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 11:18 NB wrote:
hmm, i wana have you guys opinion on this: so Node said DCLXVI will die tonight!
we also lost our 1 and only bodyguard!
who should the medic protect night2? mayor or DCLXVI assuming we only have 1 medic?....
why assume this?
also, why are DrH and DC your only candidates for protect?
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Cubed is allegedly a medic. He's doing the RebirthofLegend thing and self-protting though.
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why does NB fish for my role then tell a medic to protect me?
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Once again L is asking for the death of one player to "confirm" another. No I'm not. I'm saying in the event that we kill either, these are the likely orientations of the other player because a rank 0 new kid isn't going to throw some crazy mindgames at us like whoa.
In fact, I specifically said if I was going to lynch for information, I'd kill DrH, but that the entire Pandain/Young/DrH/Infinity arguesquare will probably clear itself up and give us a good candidate from it anyways.
So like, I did the opposite of what you're trying to say I did. Cool beans bro.
In other news, this feud is taking up a huge chunk of the thread. That's cool. Super cool even. Super cool if we're picking between two targets that are both town. The debate here is placid, with maybe 2 actors at most on a side weighing in. With 8 total vote power, mafia should be snoooooozing through this if one of the two candidates are mafia, because they can easily deploy enough votes to swing themselves to safety. In all likelihood, mafia isn't even heavily invested in this conversation, since there are at most 6 players making substantial contributions to the (now endlessly repeating) argument. Since both sides seem to have halos of associated players, it would be easy enough to swing a certain direction, then cook up why an unfortunate townie was the most ardent pusher for the lynch and get them killed.
So, L, who do you suggest we pick? I dunno lol. We probably have a 1/6 chance hitting aeres or DrH. The game as a whole provides us with closer to 1/4 odds. Given that, we're probably better off completely ignoring this situation and producing alternatives before the day runs out and I get modkilled for eating curry for 30 minutes longer than anticipated. That said, that's a blind analysis. You can make the % chance even better by seeing what your position on players like Node or others is.
In total, this yield me a list looking like this:
2. Hyperbola
3. Bumatlarge
4. Veldril
7. deconduo
8. Coagulation
10. infundibulum
11. Amber[LighT]
12. Kenpachi
13. RebirthOfLegend
14. Nemesis
15. ghrur
16. KtheZ
18. CubEdIn
19. Meapak_Ziphh
21. DCLXVI
22. Divinek
23. Lexpar
28. jcarlsoniv
31. L
32. NB
33. Glasse
34 Misder
38. kitaman27
39. LunarDestiny
So basically I've removed the players that are too heavily engaged in the stupidity to be cruise control mafia + Node because I think he's legit. There's probably a mafia member up in that group, but they're all hopped up on crazy pills at the moment, so we're not going to get very far with our tea leaf divination technique just yet.
Out of the remaining group, mafia are hiding at the feigned activity level. They'll jump on players who make mistakes, or just lightly brush people with the threat of the shitlist, but otherwise just reformulate other people's posts for giggles. And shits. I haven't read all hundred pages. Closer to 40, so I can't accurately say what happened during day 1. It seems, however, that there was a standard mayoral election, so one of the candidates who's remaining on this list might be a good person to start analysis on. Additionally, anyone who played heavily day 1, but then dropped off is less likely to be mafia, because townies' give-a-shit meter is very low normally (this, however, might be wrong this game because we're all blue and that's awesome), consistently low activity players who haven't asked for replacement or made overt apologies are more likely to be mafia given that LSB is actively kicking people outta his game if they say they're busy, and mafia players are never inactive.
Cept that Caller kid. He's pretty brave, though.
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On November 02 2010 11:18 NB wrote:
hmm, i wana have you guys opinion on this: so Node said DCLXVI will die tonight!
we also lost our 1 and only bodyguard!
who should the medic protect night2? mayor or DCLXVI assuming we only have 1 medic?....
Uh, so, that's... a town mediated hit?
Mafia doesn't send in their hits during the day unless they have a dayvig, and if they had a Dayvig, they could just shoot just prior to the vote close to fuck over Node/Medic reactions. So Node's probably not detecting dayvigs.
Did I miss something day 1? I'm pretty sure I did.
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On November 02 2010 11:37 DCLXVI wrote:
why does NB fish for my role then tell a medic to protect me?
i did not fish you! i thought about this situation first and was asking if you are more worthy than our mayor to keep alive?
you didnt even let me know your role...
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[quote]2.) I didn't get a bandwagon going on Aeres. I started a lynch on Aeres. If I was starting a bandwagon I wouldn't be using logical arguments, or you know the fact that Aeres lied as proof that he is scum. [/quote
Of course an experienced player won't just use some random arguments to try and get people to bandwagon someone. They try and pick on someone weak who can't defend himself and push for a lynch on him. Also, I don't see how Aeres lied as "proof" he is scum. As been mentioned by other people in the thread, scum are not the only ones who lie, a townie lying can be of benefit to town if done correctly, which Aeres didn't do and as such an easy target for someone such as yourself by pulling LAL.
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 11:40 L wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 11:18 NB wrote:
hmm, i wana have you guys opinion on this: so Node said DCLXVI will die tonight!
we also lost our 1 and only bodyguard!
who should the medic protect night2? mayor or DCLXVI assuming we only have 1 medic?.... Uh, so, that's... a town mediated hit? Mafia doesn't send in their hits during the day unless they have a dayvig, and if they had a Dayvig, they could just shoot just prior to the vote close to fuck over Node/Medic reactions. So Node's probably not detecting dayvigs. Did I miss something day 1? I'm pretty sure I did.
At the very end of Night 1, Node claimed that he knew BrownBear was going to die. He then claimed that his role was "oracle," which allowed him to see at the beginning of each day one player who's slated to die that night. DCLXVI is, according to Node, slated to die tonight. Possible connections between Node's role and the +1 part of mafia's 2+1 KP have been brought up. One suggestion in particular says that there's a red with the role of killing one guy randomly each night, and Node gets to find out who that is at the start of the day. The possibility of Node being a red baiting medics has also been brought up.
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On November 02 2010 11:06 Ace wrote:
2.) I didn't get a bandwagon going on Aeres. I started a lynch on Aeres. If I was starting a bandwagon I wouldn't be using logical arguments, or you know the fact that Aeres lied as proof that he is scum.
Of course an experienced player won't just use some random arguments to try and get people to bandwagon someone. They try and pick on someone weak who can't defend himself and push for a lynch on him. Also, I don't see how Aeres lied as "proof" he is scum. As been mentioned by other people in the thread, scum are not the only ones who lie, a townie lying can be of benefit to town if done correctly, which Aeres didn't do and as such an easy target for someone such as yourself by pulling LAL.
Just fixing the quotes
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EPT
