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On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate.
I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
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i feel the need to bang my head against a wall
i expected a lot more
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On September 22 2010 05:51 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information. Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote... About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads.
The thing is, if we ever get to a spot where we need to use the no lynch to avoid a bad situation, we are helped out of that bad situation even if we use it day 1... in a sense.
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the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT
That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course.
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RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?
I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information.
On the contrary No Lynch gives us plenty of information. Okay I'll agree that lynching someone would give us a bit more information, but that's the only benefit to lynching. Let me relay a few more points on why we should No Lynch:
1) Delaying the game as long as possible only hurts the mafia. The longer the town has to talk the higher chance mafia will get caught and/or reveal themselves. Mafia want the game to be over asap, they don't want to dilly dally around discussion.
2) No Lynching now gives you more time to build arguments against who you think is mafia for tomorrow's lynch. Everyone knows that day 1 lynch is kinda a crap shoot. Picking out mafia over 48 hours of talking is an incredibly challenge. Add another 48-72 hours though, and the process becomes easier. You seem to be sure that team 1 is mafia. I'm not convinced though (and neither are other people at this point). We No Lynch now you get more time to build your argument, more time to make them slip up, more time to analyze. It will be much easier to make your case tomorrow than convince us to kill team 1 now. (If it makes you feel any better, I'd totally jump on board to lynching team 7). Overall, yes this point kinda refers back to number 1, more time is better for us.
3) No lynching now avoids any kinda 3v1 scenario, barring any medic saves. I've done the calculations in a previous post, so have others.
4) Seeing who votes and/or doesn't vote for No Lynch might help us in the long run to figuring out who's mafia. Right now there's kinda a bandwagon on team 1. Assuming they are not mafia, the mafia teams are going to jump on board rather than no lynching. The vote list for No Lynching if/when it gets passed is just as important and carries just as much information as a vote list to kill someone. Not to mention anyone who has analyzed vote lists knows that you need at least 2 days (but probably 3) to make any conclusions or suspicions.
Not to mention that people who have tried to argue point 3, even though I've proved myself correct, says something about their alignment. People who have continually tried to push for a lynch even though we all know they are smart enough to see my logic says something about their alignment.
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Vote updated.
Day ends in approximately 3 hours and 30 minutes.
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@Korynne May I please request that you leave in parentheses or strikeout or whatever all people who have previously voted for someone after the vote is removed in the voting record? It makes it easier to keep track at a glance.
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Wow okay so after that brain meltdown I just had, I figure I'm just going to find the best group to put my vote on as small as my 1/3 vote is haha. I'm not really going to try and think the whole thing about the days and NLes over anymore because I think everyone's got it.
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At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1.
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On September 22 2010 06:36 YellowInk wrote:
@Korynne May I please request that you leave in parentheses or strikeout or whatever all people who have previously voted for someone after the vote is removed in the voting record? It makes it easier to keep track at a glance.
For next time, it's a bit late for this (at least you could've asked in the beginning when I first started doing vote counts xD).
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On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
Are you trying to defend him?
On September 22 2010 06:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?
I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me.
Yeah, we know they're acting weird. You don't need to bring it up yet again. Especially since you're acting weirder than they are. You clearly are reading the thread. On the other hand, it seems to me like BC is in I don't care mode. The last two sentences just don't make sense. Nobody's switched to Team 7, and I didn't present anything against Team 7 yet. So I don't know what you're talking about.
All this 4 v 2 and 3 v 1 talk is useless. The point of no lynch with regard to numbers is: A lynch when there are an even number of live players allows the mafia to make the last (game winning) hit. A lynch when player count is odd lets town have the last say. It doesn't matter how we get to even/odd number of players whether it be medic prot or no lynch. And what counts is not WHEN the no lynch/medic prot happens, its how many of those happen.
1) Delaying the game as long as possible only hurts the mafia. The longer the town has to talk the higher chance mafia will get caught and/or reveal themselves. Mafia want the game to be over asap, they don't want to dilly dally around discussion.
Mmm yeah sure. Blah blah blah having longer time to talk does nothing if you're not talking. So instead of talking no lynch, why don't you do something productive and analyze?
(If it makes you feel any better, I'd totally jump on board to lynching team 7).
Cool. I think they're scum too. [Vote]Team 7
4) Seeing who votes and/or doesn't vote for No Lynch might help us in the long run to figuring out who's mafia. Right now there's kinda a bandwagon on team 1. Assuming they are not mafia, the mafia teams are going to jump on board rather than no lynching. The vote list for No Lynching if/when it gets passed is just as important and carries just as much information as a vote list to kill someone. Not to mention anyone who has analyzed vote lists knows that you need at least 2 days (but probably 3) to make any conclusions or suspicions.
Right now one team is on the Team 1 lynch. Ya think the mafia would try to do a better job of bandwagonning than that if indeed they wanted to off Team 1, huh?
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On September 22 2010 06:00 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course.
ok, I see what you're saying. the problem is that this the only way no lynching today is right is if we have the "best case" scenario of no medic (or no medic saves). i hate playing under the assumption that everything is going to go swimmingly - i'd rather plan our plays to accommodate for the worst case scenario. no lynching day 1 doesn't do this. The extra time is lost later if there is a medic save.
So I think the choice comes down to: assume best case, get 'extra time' now VS. assume worst case, get 'extra time' later. I think there's pros and cons to each play... on one hand having more time now is good because there are more players. on the other, using the no lynch when it can protect town from a precarious situation can save the game
@ BM sorry, i must have missed that post of yours. gotta give credit where credit is due.
at this point it looks like no lynch is pretty far in the lead anyway :s
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(Quick post to make sure I don't get modkilled.)
Vote: No Lynch
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I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit.
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On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote:
I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit.
*feels selfish*
It was my idea!
Also, medic shouldn't claim. Why would we want to know who is medic? If he's going to be lynched, he can say so. Point 2 stands for both cases as well.
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On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town.
As for the things I'm supporting
1) No lynch.
2) Bum's medic plan
This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit.
The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan!
Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection.
The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush.
I'll repeat myself:
We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets.
I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of.
Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem.
If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure.
I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used.
Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster.
What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie.
You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions?
What positions are you accusing me of not taking on?
Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one.
Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm>
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 07:28 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:00 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course. ok, I see what you're saying. the problem is that this the only way no lynching today is right is if we have the "best case" scenario of no medic (or no medic saves). i hate playing under the assumption that everything is going to go swimmingly - i'd rather plan our plays to accommodate for the worst case scenario. no lynching day 1 doesn't do this. The extra time is lost later if there is a medic save. So I think the choice comes down to: assume best case, get 'extra time' now VS. assume worst case, get 'extra time' later. I think there's pros and cons to each play... on one hand having more time now is good because there are more players. on the other, using the no lynch when it can protect town from a precarious situation can save the game @ BM sorry, i must have missed that post of yours. gotta give credit where credit is due. at this point it looks like no lynch is pretty far in the lead anyway :s
No no no no no
I'm assuming worst case scenario in everything. No medic and/or no medic saves is worst case for town. If there is indeed a medic save along the way, that puts mafia at a huge disadvantage because medic can claim. Forcing mafia to counterclaim at the least. We'll deal with that if it happens. We no lynch now we will never have a precarious situation later. It's better to be in a precarious situation with a medic.
Of course if you are actually mafia, then yes, best case scenario for you is no medic and/or no medic saves. Is that what you meant?
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EPT
