Team Melee Mini Mafia II - Page 18

On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.

On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.

Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait.

On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:

YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping?

On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:
]As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang.
You make a logical jump here without proper explanation. Just because we're scumhunting, it doesn't mean we should lynch.
We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2.
Well if all we are doing is scumhunting, we can't expect to make any significant informational gains on any day. Your statement only applies to cop reports.
The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion.
Not on day 1 though so I don't quite see what you're saying here.
This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.
I'm not addressing this as this only regards the viability of blues' actions, not the time at which they take place

Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.

The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia.
Using our NL now leads to the same 2:1 scenario, skips the mylo but has the same amount of total in-game days.
Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.
As you implicitly mentioned in paragraph 1, the only time a blue role is useful is in the end game which I agree with except for the fact that we do not know if there is a DT at all. Mafia could easily claim DT in the 2:1 situation. If the real DT is still alive by then, it becomes a 50/50 vote. (With there being a 50/50 chance of there being a DT, this is a 25% chance of winning.)


Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.
We still end up having the same number of days total with the same number of lynch chances in the case of a medic save.

Day 1 no lynch is very bad.

On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:

YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping?

On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow

Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.

On September 22 2010 05:08 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oops I meant to bold the very last part and finish my train of though. All other scenarios are quite even but in the situation where we get no medic saves and choose to NL on day 1, we miss out on 1 potential lynch even though we survive for an equal amount of days. We have a maximum of 3 lynches in any scenario except no save + no lynch in which we have only 2. (This is of course assuming that our medic isn't a godly one.

On September 22 2010 05:30 Foolishness wrote:

Give me a scenario where we use No Lynch today and we end up screwed later. Remember no medic saves.

On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...

unvote Team 6

vote: No lynch

On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:



So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far.

I'm very excited to see you be the fourth.

On September 22 2010 04:33 Foolishness wrote:
Someone tell me why voting to kill someone today is better than No Lynching.

As far as I've seen nobody's addressed this issue at all. We're all smart players here, I outlined majority of the scenarios in my previous posts.

I know that someone is going to respond to this post with "Well I know for 100% that LSB is mafia". Honestly, you don't, it's day 1. So far, the only convincing thing I see against LSB is that a lot of people seem to think he's mafia. Now I know everyone in this game is at the least a decent, regular mafia player, so I have to take that into consideration. But all I see is a bandwagon. I'm fairly certain any argument someone has said about LSB, I could take that argument and apply to YellowInk or Infundibulum or Ace.

Great job guys, you found a player in this game who's not actively making plans. So have I, actually, cause nobody's really made any sort of plan (unless you count no lynching a plan), and everyone's just focusing on Team 1 and Team 2.

If you really think LSB is mafia, you would vote no lynch, and spend the next ~36 hours convincing the town with solid analysis and not "I'm 100% positive LSB/Pyrry are mafia".

On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:

YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping?

On September 22 2010 05:03 Foolishness wrote:

No, I refuted that argument already. Unless there's a medic save along the way, there's no way we'll end up in a 3v1 or 4v2 scenario if we no lynch today.

On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:


I think the general thoughts are that:

Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow

Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.

I think normally most people would go with the lynching day 1, if not only to get the info... but with such a small game every mislynch is a huge blow.

On September 22 2010 05:34 meeple wrote:


Well... technically can't we use a No lynch in a 3 v 1 scenario to prolong the game into a 2 v 1 with a higher chance of catching the last guy...

On September 22 2010 04:50 Infundibulum wrote:
If you guys think it's wise to use our no lynch today then I'm fine with backing off. Unless i'm mistaken, the math works out the same either way as long as we use it, right? @ Foolishness, YellowInk posted an argument of substantial length detailing why he thinks we should save No Lynch for later (it's in a spoiler in his post in case you missed it).

To team 1's credit, Pyrr is not playing the way he usually does when he is mafia - it's mostly LSB that send off alarms for me. Still I think it's weird that LSB goes "we're certain team 2 is mafia" and then Pyrr denies it.

On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate.

Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1.



If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted.

Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason.



Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say.

***

I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information.