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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 21 2010 18:25 Bill Murray wrote: Are we allowed to edit our posts or not? This is getting out of hand. You there. Quit worrying about trivial rules and focus on the issue at hand. Which is, killing them mafia. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them. I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1 | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
I'm not saying you're scum, or that I find you scummy. I'm not even saying that slipping into a more casual style of posting after getting that pro-townness "off your chest" is indicative of something scum would do as you can tell by my terminology when describing my take on what you are doing. I guess I'm actually listening to what you're telling me to do, though I did not plan to. I am being analytical of you. I have yet to read your huge post, and have a post right in front of it "bookmarked" in my mind. I've got nothing better to do right now, though, so after I make a glass of chocolate milk I believe I will read from it to where the editing fiasco was. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
On September 21 2010 17:45 Incognito wrote: We get tons of information besides his flip. I'm saying we need this lynch to force people to act. At this point, the mounds of no-lynch running around isn't forcing the mafia to do anything it doesn't want to do. And you know that. The mafia, and let's assume you're mafia here for this argument's sake, would want to make a case on a team it believes it can manipulate townies into mislynching like you're doing. I'm not quite sure if your heart is pure or if you're tipping the scale in your favor as scum. It is definitely ballsy to shift away from no-lynch, though. There are simply too many people who seem to be supporting it or at least somewhat supporting it for it to be a scum-driven-tactic which is why I voted for it. If a lot of people are doing something, it is likely town due to town being prevalent. You pushing against it in your huge post is either very good town play or very good scum play. The problem is that you haven't really convinced me enough to consider putting me vote up there. I am still more suspicious of team 2, and I feel like we might be able to get rid of both scum teams if team 1 are scum which is not what you believe. Well, you believe we might be able to, but we disagree on the secondary teams. For that reason, where I don't feel like arguing with you on day 2 about who is implicated, and for me not being solid on your case for now, I am keeping my vote on no lynch. On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote: At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open. Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. I actually like this post, though. Almost enough to sway me to vote for someone... I should go do some scumhunting of my own after this responsive post. On September 21 2010 17:50 Incognito wrote: It makes more sense for infinite no lynches I think. No real logical reason why town shouldn't be able to control its own KP weapon? Agree. I don't like no lynch, though, as I am unsure of how to use it. @incognito Why are you worried about it at all, though, if you're pushing to lynch a supposedly scummy slot? On September 21 2010 17:58 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Just wondering what information you think we get? I mean if we go to lynch them right now we can see who opposes the lynch and try to crucify them for it if pyrr/LSB flip red however that can lead us down a bad path, especially if the lynch isn't fully supported. I personally have no problem with the lynch, but I don't really see the incentive to rush it, if anything waiting on the lynch would give us more information then executing it now in my opinion. The other thing I am kind of wary about is how late this is coming, I am not sure if we could give a whole bunch of evidence and convince the entire town to lynch them, the issue is I think some people might not see the information in time which leaves a bad taste, especially if they flip green. I think you are innocent judging by the posting I have seen and I don't wanna see people rallying behind some stupid idea like INCOGNITO PUSHED A LYNCH ON A GREEN, AS OPPOSED TO NO LYNCH and get head the next day for it. It offsets the town a lot. I agree, I didn't feel like leaving any hostility there because chaos helps the mafia. Remember that game where there was literally like 20 pages of Ace and L just yelling at each other? If I remember right, neither of them ended up being mafia. Ace and L yelling at each other was the highlight of my early mafia career in a few games so you'll have to be a little more specific than that. Them both being town, though, makes it somewhat more specific. I am not quite sure which game you're referencing, and it is not due to me having a bad memory, but moreso me having a selective memory in a good way. I remember the important shit, honestly, not townie vs townie arguments. I like your speculating on the flip, honestly. You have been playing very well so far from my perspective, RoL, keep the activity up, bro. The one problem I have with this wagon analysis you are proposing, in terms of information, which is definitely a valid point, so I am by no means talking against this, but merely playing the devil's advocate here somewhat, is that the mafia members could easily just bus their own team and have a free ticket to LyLo with a confused town in such a small setup. What a run-on sentence  .Also, RoL, if LSB is mafia, who would you put as the other team? If you do not think of him as mafia, who is your best overall read on this game as being scum? | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
On September 21 2010 18:57 Ace wrote: chocolate milk is disgusting. Then again it is better than strawberry milk. I decided against it, and went with Mountain Dew. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
You can't ever be sure of anything in mafia. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On September 21 2010 18:32 Incognito wrote: You there. Quit worrying about trivial rules and focus on the issue at hand. Which is, killing them mafia. yay someone who can analyze enforced my suspicious about lsb being a fucker going after me. well since their team functions at a unit ill take a shot at pyrr and see what conlusions i reach On September 20 2010 08:47 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I think Foolishness pointed out all the reason's why Incognito's plan is bad: especially true are that no one ever seems to follow them and that medics should protect themselves until they get a really good read on someone else. relaying someone else's opinion so as to not have to take a stance on their own. On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated. probably want to kill some one huh, quite early for the old fanning the flames eh. He then goes on to point a finger at BC cause of his 'rvs' reasoning. Just point the finger that's all. On September 21 2010 10:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him. I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad. and then just more posts like this one. Have to wait and see blah blah, not taking a stance on anything. Seems to line up very well with your read on LSB ##unvote ##vote team 1 | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote: Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work. At this point, LSB is certainly scum in my book. I'll be voting for him and I suggest everyone else does too. We need this lynch for the information. At this many people are voting no-lynch, which is just terrible for information gathering purposes. By the way, Team 7 is also mafia. We will lynch them tomorrow after we lynch Team 1 today. Main Points: 1) LSB's defense is ineffective because superficially addresses his "normal" behavior. 2) LSB's current "abnormal" behavior is just icing on the cake. The real point is the mindset behind this behavior switch. 3) Lynch Team 1 today I just want to support my partner here. We've talked about it and i personally think it doesn't matter if we no lynch today or not, as long as we do use it, but i'd like to see some red blood day 1. One thing that strikes me about LSB's accusation toward team 2 is that it feels like he is picking out an 'easy target' (no offense to team 2). However, myself and BM and possibly(?) other people have stated they don't think team 2 is mafia and i stand by my conviction here. Either LSB is misguided, or he was hoping to lead the town to vote on a group of players that tend to appear scummy even when they're town - just look at recent games to see what I mean. Personally I think the absence of Foolishness, especially after his initial long postings, is something to note. I don't know if it's suspicious or coincidental. Rastaban has also been uncharacteristically quiet, in my opinion. ## vote team 1 | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though. I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had. It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways. I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and Vote: Team 1 Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2. | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
On September 21 2010 10:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him. I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad. In this type of setup, all townies are important because we as town cannot afford to make many mislynches. There were a couple accusations flying around so I felt the need to squash them. Simple. Also, my opinion on the plan is a couple posts below your post. I think BrownBear is of the same accord so I'm pretty sure I didn't make any logical errors in my reply. | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Rereading the thread and catching up on what happened since I went to bed. Just wanted to be sure I don't forget to vote and get mod killed. | ||
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
I still find it more likely that Team 6 is mafia than Team 1, though I agree with what most people have had to say about Team 1. After my last post, it was my intention to go into greater detail about why I believe what I do about Team 6 after a few hours and got some reactions. However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur. Therefore: ##Unvote Team 6 ##Vote Team 1, LSB and Pyrrhuloxia With respect to RebirthOfLeGenD's amazing rebuttal, here is why no lynch is bad. + Show Spoiler + As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang. We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2. The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion. This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic. Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch. The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia. Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well. Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch. Day 1 no lynch is very bad. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On September 21 2010 16:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Are you retarded? Explain this now. How is NL Day 1 bad? Do I need to make a fucking graph? ![[image loading]](http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/6758/day1ya.jpg) The earlier we use our NL the less of a chance we make a bad lynch. Statistically we become more likely to hit a mafia by the fact there is ONE less townie and information wise we have a lot more to look at. And lastly, if there is a DT that gives him one more night of information. How is any of that bad? When you refer to that 4v2 or 3v1 shit, it IS useful, but it means you wasted a lynch earlier that COULD have been put off for lack of information, plus giving you ANOTHER day of info to actually look at when deciding which person to lynch. I didn't realize baller was playing  | ||
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
As for my partner, he was wrong to get locked in to team 2 when he thought bumatlarge was acting pro-town. I don't know why that mistake is so suspicious but the world will never make sense to me. Going forward you should all try to avoid this mistake and go after teams that are acting in concerted ways (3,4,5,6,8). vote no lynch | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
##unvote Team 1 | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote: this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all. ##unvote Team 1 Maybe that's their plan... | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Contrary to what a fellow Panda has said, no lynching in my humble opinion would normally be a good option in the typical Day 1 scenario. Day 1 lynches are notoriously off, almost always resulting in town. With a setup such as this, mislynching will cause the next mislynch to result in lylo, and as I've said before can lead to the "word against word" situation which means 50% of certain death. You say "it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents" but we should only scumhunt if we know we are not going to lynch an innocent. Our hunting must be tempered by reason. If, as we might now, we have a viable canidate, we should disregard no lynch and lynch LSB and Pyrr. If not, then no lynching would be the most viable option in my opinion. On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote: this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all. ##unvote Team 1 Why? Because of the sudden burst of 5 votes in 3 hours? Aye, it is startling, but keep in mind that one was from the accuser's team, two from your team, and the only two unique ones were YellowInk and Divinek. Break it down such, and it's not so startling. Carrying on, I was going to vote for LSB and Pyrr. But as I look it over it just seems to me that they don't have much going against them. LSB is accused of being a planner albeit not planning, but reality is he's (sort of) new, its the first day, and he has contributed, whatever the quality. It just seems to me that evidence can be pushed aside as characterization of bad townie, and while I do have grievances with LSB's logic, that does not make him mafia. I'll still have to think about it, but for now I stick with no lynch. | ||
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