|
![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLmafia_new.png)
Team Melee Mini Mafia II
*All questions are to be directed toward me.
+ Show Spoiler [Important Posts] +
Intro:
Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking.
This mafia game works slightly different than the normal one (read: Mafia), so I'll explain it a bit more. During the night mafia will collectively decide on and send in their hits to me, who they want dead (it's a good idea to discuss them during day so you know ahead of time). Any player with a special role that can act during the night must PM me their actions each and every night.
If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win the game. The goal for the townspeople is to lynch all the members of the mafia by whatever analysis, teamwork, or guile they have. The goal of the mafia, of course, is to kill the townspeople with murderous precision.
The game is typically very active and there are usually numerous walls of text to wade through. If you are not a person who likes reading then I highly suggest you don't play the game because it is essential to being informed within the game. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules: (subject to change)
Posting Etiquette:
In the past, many players have complained or quit because of the excessive badmouthing and pointless flaming. If you are posting aggressively and know you couldn't get away with it anywhere else on this site, it probably definitely isn't okay here. Besides, contrary to what you may think, yelling at someone is a great way to convince people to disagree with your arguments. Please do not post inappropriately, or it will earn you a warning based on mod discretion. If you choose to ignore the warning, you will be modkilled and banned from future games. Examples of inappropriate posts include excessive cursing and vulgarity, among other things. I have the final say on whether or not a post is inappropriate or not. Be warned, I will be extremely intolerant of flaming this game. You get one warning to cool down, and if it continues actions will be taken. This is supposed to be an objective game, folks. Let's keep it that way.
Cheating:
Cheating includes (but is not limited to) the following and will get you banned from future games:
1. Posting after death. One polite goodbye post is acceptable but please do not post anything which could POSSIBLY affect the game.
2. Betraying your role and ruining the game for everyone by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town.
3. Logging on to someone else's account / checking their PMs / looking over someone's shoulder to get their role.
4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles.
5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. This is not a photoshop competition.
6. Posting any PM you receive from a host.
7. Editing posts. Editing posts is not allowed for any reason. The mods can see your edits, and if you are caught, you will look suspicious. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be owned.
8. There are to be NO private messages this game for most roles. Roles that may PM will be told to them.
9. Private messaging, including IMs / IRC, is allowed between team members, and between Mafia.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is to be done in this thread.
2. Please vote in the following format, to make it easier for everyone to read: [Vote]Qatol. While the bolding in itself is not necessarily needed, it makes it easier on everybody's eyes. Please bold. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update votes whenever I get the chance.
3. You cannot autochange your vote to the losing or winning bandwagon.
4. You may not vote for yourself, anyone dead, or outside the game.
5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first is lynched over the other person.
6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
7. If you miss a vote or fail to post during one day cycle, you will be modkilled.
Modkills:
Inactivity has been a problem in every mafia game so far. Inactivity is most easily defined as failure to vote. If you do miss a vote, you will be modkilled. Special consideration will be exercised if a player in danger of being modkilled by this manner has been an active contributor in the thread. If something comes up and you know you will miss the vote, PM me in advance about it to let me know and you will be spared. Remember again: abstaining votes are NOT allowed. And once again, flaming is not tolerated. Keep it civil, or else you will receive a quick lightning bolt to the back of the head. Furthermore, you must post at least once in this thread per game cycle (from the start of the night to the end of the next day) to avoid being modkilled. Simply voting doesn't work. This is to prevent lurkers.
Anyone who is modkilled may not play in one of my games until they have proven themselves to be active players in another game. Please remain active.However, do not just simply spam one-liners or worthless posts. Strategic modkills are NOT allowed, either. A strategic modkill is defined as anything that will better the position of your team. You cannot threaten with the words "well if you kill X and he's not mafia I'll get myself modkilled" or anything in that vein. Essentially, you may not use your non-majority-decided death as a bargaining chip. If you do happen to be modkilled, you will be put on Qatol's ban list, and cannot play in an "official" game till you have served your sentence.
Signups:
You can sign up either in pairs or individually, but there needs to be at least 18 people for the game to start. If more people want to play, they may request to be added to a pre-existing team. Once we reach 18 players, there will be 24 hours before sign-ups close.
If you sign up as a pair, both of you need to sign up and acknowledge your partner in the thread by posting: Sign up [Your Name] and [Partner Name]
If you sign up individually, you will be placed into a team. Players after 18 will be put into an already existing team of two.
I don't mind you playing other games at the same time. It's not my fault if you're not active though.
Clues:
There are no clues.
Time Cycle:
This game will follow a strict 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle. In case I am not around at the deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. The time deadline is 02:00 GMT (+00:00).
Credits:
The list gets too long. Feel free to contribute to it in the future!
Relevant to this game:
1. You may PM your teammates, mafia can all PM each other.
2. Each team is given a role
3. Each person has one vote, the weight of your vote is 1/n where n is the number of people on your team. (Ex. If there are 3 people on your team, your vote counts as 1/3 of a vote.)
4. Each team has one night action (Mafia only has 1KP, and Medics/Detectives only have 1 protect/check per night)
5. Only team members that do not vote and post will be modkilled. If that happens, you lose a fraction of your voting power permanently. All night powers remain the same.
6. Only members who have not posted and voted will be sent to the ban list. Roles are revealed only upon the death of all members of a team.
|
Team List:
1. LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
2. bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea
3. rastaban and Foolishness
4. Ace and Bill Murray
5. Pandain and BrownBear
6. BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
7. meeple and YellowInk
8. Infundibulum and Incognito
Setup:
1 Cop, 1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies
1 Cop, 2 Mafia, 5 Townies
1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 5 Townies
2 Mafia, 6 Townies
|
+ Show Spoiler [Previous Vote Count] ++ Show Spoiler [Day 1] +Team 1: LSB and Pyrrhuloxia[12]bumatlarge Divinek Infundibulum YellowInk SouthRawrea Team 2: bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea[0]Team 3: rastaban and Foolishness[3]BloodyC0bbler Team 4: Ace and Bill Murray[0]Team 5: Pandain and BrownBear[0]Team 6: BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD[0]Team 7: meeple and YellowInk[3]Incognito Team 8: Infundibulum and Incognito[0]No-Lynch[27]BrownBear Foolishness RebirthOfLeGenD Pandain rastaban Pyrrhuloxia meeple Bill Murray LSB + Show Spoiler [Non-Voters] +
Ace (unvoted but did not vote again, not a modkill)
Team 1: LSB and Pyrrhuloxia[9]Team 2: bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea[0]Team 3: rastaban and Foolishness[0]Team 5: Pandain and BrownBear[0]Team 6: BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD[6]Pyrrhuloxia (switching to Team 7 past deadline) LSB Team 7: meeple and YellowInk[19]Incognito Divinek Foolishness RebirthOfLeGenD rastaban bumatlarge BloodyC0bbler Team 8: Infundibulum and Incognito[0]+ Show Spoiler [Non-Voters] +
BrownBear
Infundibulum
SouthRawrea
Vote Count: (16 is a majority)Team 1: LSB and Pyrrhuloxia[0]Team 2: bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea[3]LSB Team 3: rastaban and Foolishness[0]Team 6: BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD[21]Foolishness rastaban Infundibulum Incognito Divinek bumatlarge SouthRawrea Pyrrhuloxia Team 8: Infundibulum and Incognito[3]RebirthOfLeGenD + Show Spoiler [Non-Voters] +
Vote Count: (13 is a majority)
Team 1: LSB and Pyrrhuloxia[2]
SouthRawrea
Team 2: bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea[12]
Pyrrhuloxia
rastaban
LSB
Foolishness
Team 3: rastaban and Foolishness[7]
Incognito
Divinek
bumatlarge
Team 8: Infundibulum and Incognito[0]
+ Show Spoiler [Non-Voters] +
|
|
|
Wow I was just thinking of this situation yesterday
/in
EDIT: See below
|
I thought it was totally fun when we played it the first time (it's nice for everyone to have a buddy to talk to, I think xP), if you have time read the game. Totally silly ending. xP
|
i hated it because my team mates were terrible and got me killed 
totally
/in though
|
/in on two conditions:
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31.
|
|
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
|
/in with Pyrrhuloxia
Sign up LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
|
On August 10 2010 08:04 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote:
/in on two conditions:
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31. What about me?
/in on one condition:
1) flamewheel is on my team
|
On August 10 2010 08:04 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote:
/in on two conditions:
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31. What about me?
No you're terrible at this game 
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On August 10 2010 09:50 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2010 08:04 flamewheel wrote:On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote:
/in on two conditions:
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31. What about me? No you're terrible at this game
This is true!
|
On August 10 2010 09:52 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2010 09:50 Incognito wrote:On August 10 2010 08:04 flamewheel wrote:On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote:
/in on two conditions:
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31. What about me? No you're terrible at this game This is true!
I am too! We can be terrible togetherrrr <3
|
On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote:
/in on two conditions:
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31.
August 31 is a bit late for me. If it starts sooner, I might consider playing.
|
On August 10 2010 10:40 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote:
/in on two conditions:
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31. August 31 is a bit late for me. If it starts sooner, I might consider playing.
Nuuuuuu I'm gone from August 15-31 why Qatol whyyyyyyyy...
|
you could be a 3rd member on a team with him, and be V/LA. We could also make the day/night cycles like 2 weeks / 1 week 
|
also i think me and mr bumatlarge are gonna be team mates for this if he so graciously agrees
|
|
|
Confirming divine and I, forgive me Bill!
|
Updated player list, some of you need to sort yourselves out. xP
|
In on a team with whoever will take me
|
On August 12 2010 00:09 Korynne wrote:
Updated player list, some of you need to sort yourselves out. xP
Psh. Sorting myself out is overrated. I'll decide when you get more signups.
|
Qatol is just scared of superior players. (BRING DA TUNDA AND DA RIGHTNEENG)
|
On August 12 2010 00:38 BrownBear wrote:In on a team with whoever will take me
Yup, me and brownbear decided to be on team. I didn't ask him but I know he'll say yes.
Its not about skill...its about love.
That's what I learned from Harry potter
|
Hahaha alright. Pandain and I are a team.
|
wait wait, qatol and or ver might be playing?
Hook me up with flamewheel, qatol or ver and you got yourself a cobbler.
|
On August 12 2010 06:59 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2010 00:38 BrownBear wrote:In on a team with whoever will take me Yup, me and brownbear decided to be on team. I didn't ask him but I know he'll say yes. Its not about skill...its about love. That's what I learned from Harry potter
Oh i read that book, love can bring people back to life because it is ultimate magic
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On August 12 2010 08:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
wait wait, qatol and or ver might be playing?
Hook me up with flamewheel, qatol or ver and you got yourself a cobbler.
Qatol said he's too busy playing and Ver has expressed a very definitive way of saying he's not playing to me, hahaha.
|
On August 12 2010 08:34 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2010 08:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
wait wait, qatol and or ver might be playing?
Hook me up with flamewheel, qatol or ver and you got yourself a cobbler. Qatol said he's too busy playing and Ver has expressed a very definitive way of saying he's not playing to me, hahaha.
So bc/flamewheel go?
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On August 12 2010 08:35 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2010 08:34 flamewheel wrote:On August 12 2010 08:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
wait wait, qatol and or ver might be playing?
Hook me up with flamewheel, qatol or ver and you got yourself a cobbler. Qatol said he's too busy playing and Ver has expressed a very definitive way of saying he's not playing to me, hahaha. So bc/flamewheel go?
We'll see depending on school!
Incognito is a meanie.
3 person team maybe?
+ Show Spoiler +I just realized that would put me in a group with the two hosts from XVI. Weird.
Weird.
|
We are awesome sauce like that.
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
The circle might be complete.
|
@Signing up Ace and Bill Murray the A to the B connection.
|
Word. We're about to roflstomp this game eZ.
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
That's hilariously ironic.
I sense some nasty meta incoming.
|
|
|
Can I assume flamewheel and BC?
|
On August 12 2010 13:27 Korynne wrote:
Can I assume flamewheel and BC?
not yet, he might gimp out.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
/in
who wants to be my partner? I'm up for playing with anyone, but I recommend they bring their bulletproof vest....
|
no kidding, you always get nightkilled night 1
i hope i'm a medic so you can make me look good
|
I don't have a bulletproof vest. =(
|
I will role with you Radfield if you don't have anyone else lined up.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Are you gonna role with me or roll with me? Both will do
Sign up rastaban and Radfield
|
As long as its not our heads I guess roll will do as well :O)
|
On August 13 2010 01:54 Radfield wrote:Are you gonna role with me or roll with me? Both will do Sign up rastaban and Radfield
Whatever happened to that roleplay idea, and one of them was Radfield or something...
|
DTA do you wanna be my lover?
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 13 2010 03:36 DarthThienAn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 13 2010 01:54 Radfield wrote:Are you gonna role with me or roll with me? Both will do Sign up rastaban and Radfield Whatever happened to that roleplay idea, and one of them was Radfield or something...
I think it never got off the ground, not enough people joined. I believe the ability was that you couldn't be killed until Day 5 or until half the people in the game are dead. Something like that. I'm sure Korynne could elaborate more.
|
So like, working on stuff, but like been busy with school and work and things. Sorry, will get around to it. =(
|
i think any game with radfield in it should have a medic of some sort, for metagame reasons of course
|
On August 13 2010 04:46 SouthRawrea wrote:
DTA do you wanna be my lover?
No but seriously anyone wanna pair up?
|
Should probably PM him if you haven't already.
|
What happens when bum, the most obvious townie in the world, and divine, the scummiest townie in the world, JOIN FORCES?
FIND OUT NEXT TIME ON
DRAGON
BALL
ZEEEEE
|
yeah man this is going to be awesommmmmmmmme
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
I don't get it. I read your name as Divvi-neck. As a nickname, removing just the k confuses me.
But maybe that's just because it's 2:30 in the morning.
Uh, also not playing, most likely. Busy time incoming.
|
Ohh pooey~
Need more sign ups guys. D=
|
On August 18 2010 01:57 SouthRawrea wrote:No but seriously anyone wanna pair up?
If you're still single, I'm available ^^.
|
On August 18 2010 15:37 flamewheel wrote:
I don't get it. I read your name as Divvi-neck. As a nickname, removing just the k confuses me.
But maybe that's just because it's 2:30 in the morning.
Uh, also not playing, most likely. Busy time incoming.
that realistically makes sense but it's supposed to be read as divine k, but without me telling you that i dont expect you to know it lolol
div works too if you want it to make sense in your head regardless
but whatever floats your boat
|
On August 19 2010 13:41 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2010 15:37 flamewheel wrote:
I don't get it. I read your name as Divvi-neck. As a nickname, removing just the k confuses me.
But maybe that's just because it's 2:30 in the morning.
Uh, also not playing, most likely. Busy time incoming. that realistically makes sense but it's supposed to be read as divine k, but without me telling you that i dont expect you to know it lolol div works too if you want it to make sense in your head regardless but whatever floats your boat
I read it like flamewheel read it. You shall forever be "Div-vin-neck"
|
|
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Arg, I'm going to have to drop out of this one. I just can't handle being in two games at once and it looks like this and PYP2 may start around the same time.
/out
|
On August 19 2010 12:47 DarthThienAn wrote:
If you're still single, I'm available ^^.
I'm in an open relationship, does that count? :D
|
On August 19 2010 16:01 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
can i sign up solo?
Uh, you can't sign up solo as in playing alone, but you can sign up solo as in I'll find you a partner.
|
/in I'll just sign up and have ye find me a partner plz :D
|
But Darth said he'd sign up with you... so I signed you up with Darth. xD
|
Oh okay nvm then. I thought he wasn't sure yet.
|
On August 19 2010 23:23 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oh okay nvm then. I thought he wasn't sure yet.
Nah, I'm good to go. ^^
|
On August 19 2010 21:53 Korynne wrote:Uh, you can't sign up solo as in playing alone, but you can sign up solo as in I'll find you a partner.
that's what i meant, sorry
|
So we need 2-3 more teams
|
It isn't looking like this game will start in time for me. /out
|
On August 20 2010 05:49 Qatol wrote:
It isn't looking like this game will start in time for me. /out
Don't do it!!! if Infun and I can both find teamates will we only need 1 more...
|
On August 20 2010 06:10 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2010 05:49 Qatol wrote:
It isn't looking like this game will start in time for me. /out Don't do it!!! if Infun and I can both find teamates will we only need 1 more...
Yes, but this game is already starting too late for me. An ideal game for my schedule would have started a week ago. It seems to me that it just isn't meant to happen. Maybe I'll play in December when I have my next break.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
|
Sign me back up, but with with Foolishness please. I didn't want the bulletproof vest Radfield made our team to go to waste.
|
foolishness/radfield on night 1 hit
depends on which of them is mafia
I am going to be running a game for around 15 people when this one ends
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
What happened to not hosting anymore for a long time? :o
|
|
|
|
|
I've got a fever, and there is only one subscription
|
On August 21 2010 08:30 Bill Murray wrote:
I've got a fever, and there is only one subscription
Cowbell.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
|
On August 21 2010 10:14 Radfield wrote:
Subscription...?
to teen vogue, duh
|
On August 21 2010 09:26 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 08:30 Bill Murray wrote:
I've got a fever, and there is only one subscription Cowbell.
I gotta have more.
|
I gotta have more signups. D=
|
On August 21 2010 09:26 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 08:30 Bill Murray wrote:
I've got a fever, and there is only one subscription Cowbell.
Wait what the fadoodle its PERscription.
|
Any newcomers willing to join?
Team Mini Mafia would be the perfect game for you! You'll have a partner giving you experienced tips and advice! (unless your partner is Infun. Don't listen to him)
Join! It's easy! Just post "/in"
If you don't want to join, just post "/in" also.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Whoever wants to be with infundibulum should type /INfundibulum!
|
On August 22 2010 01:06 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 09:26 Pandain wrote:On August 21 2010 08:30 Bill Murray wrote:
I've got a fever, and there is only one subscription Cowbell. Wait what the fadoodle its PERscription.
everytime you say fadoodle small puppies get their eyes stabbed out
|
On August 22 2010 08:42 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2010 01:06 Pandain wrote:On August 21 2010 09:26 Pandain wrote:On August 21 2010 08:30 Bill Murray wrote:
I've got a fever, and there is only one subscription Cowbell. Wait what the fadoodle its PERscription. everytime you say fadoodle small puppies get their eyes stabbed out
Why would you say that...
+ Show Spoiler +
|
On August 22 2010 07:36 Foolishness wrote:
Whoever wants to be with infundibulum should type /INfundibulum!
tee hee
|
/in!
if theres still space
|
|
|
I think I'm going to /out...
Sorry SR but like... SC2 =x lol.
|
I've been really busy lately, but am thinking of joining in this. Someone should convince me why it'd be a good idea for me to be on their team and maybe I'll sign up with them. (:
Oh, and SC2 is still awesome. My 'number' is 988, feel free to friend me for gaming.
|
|
|
|
|
Actually, I'm not sure about whether I will have time to contribute to this by the time this setup rolls along. I will have to /out. Sorry D:
|
I'm going to have to /out as well, due to being modkilled in PYP2, so I can use this towards my ban.
|
Man you people suck, I blame Darth for starting the trend. xP
|
On August 30 2010 01:07 BrownBear wrote:
I'm going to have to /out as well, due to being modkilled in PYP2, so I can use this towards my ban.
You weren't modkilled, I actually thought you posted within 24 hours
|
But I missed the vote. So... what?
|
On August 30 2010 09:41 BrownBear wrote:
But I missed the vote. So... what?
The vote is a majority vote. So the voting ends when a majority has been reached. It is almost never the case that all players will vote in this situation. And as for using this game to count against your ban, you could only do that if this game starts after PYP2 ends as per the usual policy.
|
hah, well I guess I have no ban. Sweet. Also, thanks for the clarification, Qatol.
/in again.
|
Haha, okay. xD
Still missing lots of people.
|
Anyone want to play now that:
1) it's after the 30th
2) PYP is over
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On September 07 2010 08:53 Korynne wrote:
...you're already in. xD
Yeah I know... I just wanted to add a feeling of "momentum" to this game. Like "Omg, everyone's joining I have to get in fast!"
Edit: You see! It worked!
|
|
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
|
|
|
can you please put a medic on the game for radfields sake
|
Or make Radfield mafia? 
|
|
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Or Bulletproof Mafia Self-Medic Serial Killer
|
On September 08 2010 05:34 Radfield wrote:
Or Bulletproof Mafia Self-Medic Serial Killer
Lol you'll get roleblocked and still die first night.
|
Or you could pair Radfield up with a player who is so terrible and causes so much chaos that mafia wouldn't want to kill Radfield's team since they would be eliminating a troublemaker
|
On September 08 2010 07:36 Incognito wrote:Or you could pair Radfield up with a player who is so terrible and causes so much chaos that mafia wouldn't want to kill Radfield's team since they would be eliminating a troublemaker
ctrl+f chezinu
..nothing
|
bill murray is too in this game
|
im with ace, not radfield, plus i've turned into a better player recently than I have been in the past couple months.
|
Assuming this "I am with X on a team" is a joke count me in
but seriously, I am with BC.
<3
|
Fine ill take RoL
|
Just one more required. (A team if YellowInk doesn't play, or just a person if YellowInk plays)
|
I am really looking forawrd to this game PEOPLE SHOULD JOIN
|
Sure what the heck... I'm in
|
oh god, a wild meeple has appeared
|
Jeez that was quick BC... Yeah its been a while since I played a game I guess
I could team up with YellowInk if he's still around?
|
haha, i just happened to be looking here, nothing against you.
|
you could do worse, meeple. YellowInk is a really good player.
|
On September 15 2010 07:22 Bill Murray wrote:
you could do worse, meeple. YellowInk is a really good player.
I don't doubt the quality of his play, but rather whether he has the time for one of these
|
|
|
Sending out confirmation PMs today to make sure everyone still wants and has time to play, will start by the weekend if confirmations are all received. You may still opt out at this point, but if you confirm your participation then any inactivity is treated as such (by modkills and bans according to standard procedures).
|
... Just as Caller's game finishes.
Wow, every game seems to flow nicely.
I get killed in XXX, Penalty Mafia starts.
Penalty Mafia ends, PyP immediately starts.
Last day of PyP, Callers game starts.
Callers game has 1 night/day max, this game starts!
=D!
|
pumped for this. i thought i got a role pm!
|
On September 15 2010 11:39 LSB wrote:
... Just as Caller's game finishes.
Wow, every game seems to flow nicely.
I get killed in XXX, Penalty Mafia starts.
Penalty Mafia ends, PyP immediately starts.
Last day of PyP, Callers game starts.
Callers game has 1 night/day max, this game starts!
=D!
And if enough people sign up, this game ends, mine will start!
|
Just checking in. Interesting concept with the teams, I am excited for how it will pan out.
|
This is a very good lineup of people.
|
Radfield and Subversion can't play. D=
Looking for replacements. T___T
|
/in
I'll be on team 8 if that's ok with infundi.
|
/in (as Radfield replacement)
since you guys look like you need some help kicking this game off xD
Would I be fine with you SouthRawrea?
|
|
|
/out
I made up my mind. Sorry
Edit: Combo of being in two mafiascum games + university = probably overloaded already.
|
|
|
Awww... too bad... we'll get someone else though I guess...
|
On August 26 2010 08:58 YellowInk wrote:
I've been really busy lately, but am thinking of joining in this. Someone should convince me why it'd be a good idea for me to be on their team and maybe I'll sign up with them. (:
Oh, and SC2 is still awesome. My 'number' is 988, feel free to friend me for gaming.
On September 15 2010 06:19 meeple wrote:
Jeez that was quick BC... Yeah its been a while since I played a game I guess
I could team up with YellowInk if he's still around?
C'mon meeple, can't you be any more convincing than this?
Korynne did PM me and I'll say now that I can play, but fair warning that I'll probably post little more than once per (real life) day. You likely won't see me hanging around sniping people like you've seen previously. That being said, once I get into a game sometimes I just can't help myself no matter what other obligations I have...
I'm flexible to whatever time settings the rest of you would like - if I were a host I'd want to pick out whatever time setting made my own life easiest.
|
On September 16 2010 19:44 YellowInk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 08:58 YellowInk wrote:
I've been really busy lately, but am thinking of joining in this. Someone should convince me why it'd be a good idea for me to be on their team and maybe I'll sign up with them. (:
Oh, and SC2 is still awesome. My 'number' is 988, feel free to friend me for gaming. Show nested quote +On September 15 2010 06:19 meeple wrote:
Jeez that was quick BC... Yeah its been a while since I played a game I guess
I could team up with YellowInk if he's still around? C'mon meeple, can't you be any more convincing than this? Korynne did PM me and I'll say now that I can play, but fair warning that I'll probably post little more than once per (real life) day. You likely won't see me hanging around sniping people like you've seen previously. That being said, once I get into a game sometimes I just can't help myself no matter what other obligations I have... I'm flexible to whatever time settings the rest of you would like - if I were a host I'd want to pick out whatever time setting made my own life easiest.
hehe... sweet deal man... dunno that much about your play since I was gone basically the whole time you started playing but I'm down.
|
he's sort of like radfield, except he doesn't die every night
|
and he's definitely not like Bill Murray, who gets himself lynched Day 1 a lot
|
On September 17 2010 04:32 Bill Murray wrote:
he's sort of like radfield, except he doesn't die every night tbh I wouldn't be surprised if I won the Radfield Jr. Bearie by this game.
|
|
|
I havent ever been lynched day 1 as scum afaik
|
On September 17 2010 06:05 Ace wrote:
and he's definitely not like Bill Murray, who gets himself lynched Day 1 a lot
I almost got him lynched day 1 when he was scum, but chezinu went off the deep end on me
|
I need one more person to start. =\
I know BM posted in the TL Mafia thread but could you guys perhaps help with getting one more person for the game? Would be much appreciated. <3
xD
|
Do we need another, or can you throw South on another team?
|
I guess I could...I have no idea what happens to balance.
I'll do that then tomorrow if there's no one.
|
take south, two off one team, and split them into 7 teams with 2 scum imo
7 players c9
9 players f11
so if you're doing that with 8 teams you may as well have 7 teams with 3 people on 3 teams.
just my personal opinion, you are the mod, so i am not telling you what to do by any means, just offering suggestions on how to get a very balanced setup.
Another way to work this with less if you do f11 is to consider making the mafia's kill power poisoning based where it works a night after.
|
tbh I like f11 more than c9, but in the end I'm just here to play whatever. Team mafia is cool.
|
i tried to post in sports and games again, but to no avail i guess
|
The game will start at 01:00 GMT (+00:00) in approximately 5 and a half hours, role PMs will go out shortly.
Role PMs have been sent out, please let me know if there are any issues.
|
south better not get us killed
|
Alright, it's go time.
Let's hear some wild and crazy plans now.
|
Actually, question: Where's the role list in the OP? Or is it super secret?
|
On August 10 2010 01:40 Korynne wrote:
Team List:
1. LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
2. bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea
3. rastaban and Foolishness
4. Ace and Bill Murray
5. Pandain and BrownBear
6. BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
7. meeple and YellowInk
8. Infundibulum and Incognito
Setup:
1 Cop, 1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 3 Townies
1 Cop, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies
1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies
2 Mafia, 5 Townies
I think that's the role list.
Well... I used to think that's the role list, but there are 8 teams and 7 roles
|
I don't get why a role list needs to be in the OP. o_o
|
Hmm wha? LSB? No idea what you're talking about. xP
|
|
|
|
|
On September 19 2010 05:22 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2010 01:40 Korynne wrote:
Team List:
1. LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
2. bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea
3. rastaban and Foolishness
4. Ace and Bill Murray
5. Pandain and BrownBear
6. BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
7. meeple and YellowInk
8. Infundibulum and Incognito
Setup:
1 Cop, 1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 3 Townies
1 Cop, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies
1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies
2 Mafia, 5 Townies I think that's the role list. Well... I used to think that's the role list, but there are 8 teams and 7 roles
Interesting. Did Korynne screw up or are there hidden roles(like caller's game) with possible 3rd parties.
|
Korynne changed it to 8 now.
|
What? I didn't change anything... *shifty eyes*
|
Day 1
The last thing you remember is accepting an invitation from a mysterious lady to enter a competition, you think you shook her hand... but you're not really sure.
You wake up to the screaming of someone nearby. You try to get up and fall over. To your horror, you've been surgically attached to that screaming voice.
You survey your surroundings, you're in a windowless room, as plain as can be, white walls, concrete floor. There's a door at the other end of the room. The two of you make your way over and go in the other room, where 7 other pairs like you are sitting, except for one group that has 3 people.
There's a timer in a corner, it reads 47 hours and 10 minutes.
In the middle of the room in the floor is a large round metallic object. It looks like the apparatus installed in your mother's kitchen sink... what was the name again? A garbage disposal perhaps? Below the disposal is a large tub, resting on a scale. At the other end of the room is a huge metallic vault door. You look a bit confused, someone points at the ceiling.
Which one of you will it be?
|
Garberator?
Man, we should have a SAW mafia sometime...
|
Looks around for Billy the puppet
I always knew that Mysterious Ladies are the sickest. Why can't you be like a Kenyan Prince and just want my money?
|
On September 19 2010 10:51 Korynne wrote:
You wake up to the screaming of someone nearby. You try to get up and fall over. To your horror, you've been surgically attached to that screaming voice.
I spent a good 5 minutes chuckling about this.
*accidently drops his ring down the garberator* :O
|
So... any plans on rooting out red?
I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. Personally I'm leaning to weaker, seeing as now its three people who have to play the part of a single role. More chances for discrepancies and tells...
|
Funny logic you have there sir. A 3 person team is stronger than a 2 person team - more voices, harder to convince 3 people to vote a certain way than 2 people.
|
You're assuming they're green, and I'm thinking about what if they're red?
If they're green, then you're right its harder to convince them to vote a certain way, more resistant to mafia corruption. But isn't it weaker if they're red?
|
I think kor put south town their team so we cab actually tell if they are scum or not
They know it to:
On August 18 2010 14:32 bumatlarge wrote:
What happens when bum, the most obvious townie in the world, and divine, the scummiest townie in the world, JOIN FORCES?
FIND OUT NEXT TIME ON
DRAGON
BALL
ZEEEEE
|
3 person team is stronger assuming all 3 people maintain activity and don't get modkilled. Last game, I was on a 3-person team, and both Jspazz and storm got modkilled, so I had no voting power whatsoever.
|
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray.
|
On September 19 2010 13:29 BrownBear wrote:
3 person team is stronger assuming all 3 people maintain activity and don't get modkilled. Last game, I was on a 3-person team, and both Jspazz and storm got modkilled, so I had no voting power whatsoever.
a 3 person team would be just as strong as a 2 person team when it comes to votes assuming they all co-ordinate the same. In FACT a 2 person team is much stronger should they decide to split the votes
cuz all our votes count for 1/3, while half teams count for 1/2.
So i dont know what you're talking about.
|
But i guess it's better in the sense that we have all 3 of us able to communicate and coordinate and use our differences together and such, powers unite!
me and bum being a team is crazy enough as it is, let alone mr south who nearly manages to convince a whole town to lynch him based on a sentence lol.
i have no idea why he's on our team tbh, im assuming it has something to do with the power of greyskull.
|
On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray.
You look around the room, there is nothing in the room other than the timer, and the ominous metal object in the middle of the floor.
|
Light Torch (in case of Grue)
Examine Metal Object.
Look under Metal Object
Examine Timer
|
On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray.
on what justification?
|
On September 19 2010 16:16 rastaban wrote:
Light Torch (in case of Grue)
Examine Metal Object.
Look under Metal Object
Examine Timer
Due to your newly attached partner stumble over to the metal object. Due to your new lack of mobility you trip and fall into the garbage disposal.
(Just kidding, please don't do that.)
|
Ah just noticed that the game has started. I know its the weekend and people might be busy (I sure am), but I can't help but notice that something is already off in this game. A couple people are acting out of the ordinary. I'll keep a close eye on these players. However, I won't/can't afford to give them much time to straighten out their act though, so shape it up quickly so I can have time to organize my thoughts/put forward a lynch candidate.
We're not lynching based on inactivity this game folks. Its Team Melee Mafia, so inactivity lynch makes little sense. 8 "players" should make this game short and quick. There's no time to waste. I won't talk about activity right now given the game just started, but I will assume people are going to be active. Glancing at the player roster we have a game where every team should have someone who can be expected to carry some weight.
I didn't read the last TMMM game entirely, but I noticed the last game had a fairly large discussion on two player vs. three player teams in the context of inactivity and the pros/cons of having a two/three player team. This discussion is pointless, wastes our precious time, and derails the town from its focus of finding and eliminating the mafia. Mafia like such a discussion because they can be active while keeping the town distracted from finding the mafia. Learning to recognize and avoid pointless arguments will get us a long way.
With that said, time for some useful discussion. Unlike the TL Mafia game's I've played, this game doesn't have a Godfather. Therefore, DTs are that much more viable, especially in terms of checking QUIET scummy teams. Medics should be protecting VOCAL pro-town teams. This way, mafia is incentivized to take pot shots at the middle of the pool, as shooting the scummy players is obviously bad and helps narrow down the pool, and shooting active players risks running into medic protection. Mafia is also incentivized to be active because a) they can draw medic protection, b) they must avoid being targetted by DT checks. Mafia can't hide at the bottom because there is no GF or miller card to save them. There are also way to few players to be able to effectively hide from DT checks. The beauty is that even if DTs/medics don't exist, mafia must still play as if they do exist. So this strategy does not rely on the existence of blue roles.
My general theory is that we need a) to let the DT check whoever he thinks is most scummy, and b) vote/make a list of the 2 top active/helpful players for the medic to protect. The reason why the DT should decide on his own who to check is merely so that mafia doesn't manipulate the target. The reason why we vote for the teams to be put on the medic list is because it is that much harder to vote for someone useless while claiming they're useful. Its a lot easier to manipulate the DT check by voting since its easier to point out flaws than real genuine activity. Of course even townies will make mistakes. So we just bypass the DT check voting.
Spam. I've had to stop reading all of the last 5 or so games after getting a day or so into it because the thread just kept expanding at a phenomenal rate. Let's try to keep the thread clean and organized. I want to make sure important information is not shoved into a corner and ignored. In order to help the town organize, I suggest that at the end of every post, everyone should write a short sentence stating the point of the post. Its easy to wander aimlessly while writing a post. Writing what the main point at the end of every post should help you stay focused, help us focus on what you're trying to convey, and restrict the mafia's ability to derail the thread.
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
***
Main points:
1) Focus on behavior analysis!
2) Stay out of useless conversations. Be pro-town and kill them rather than fan them into flame.
3) Force mafia to play proactively by threat of efficient use of blue roles.
4) Vote on medic list to protect active townies.
5) Make it a point to work toward a specific goal when posting.
|
On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
Ah just noticed that the game has started. I know its the weekend and people might be busy (I sure am), but I can't help but notice that something is already off in this game. A couple people are acting out of the ordinary. I'll keep a close eye on these players. However, I won't/can't afford to give them much time to straighten out their act though, so shape it up quickly so I can have time to organize my thoughts/put forward a lynch candidate.
We're not lynching based on inactivity this game folks. Its Team Melee Mafia, so inactivity lynch makes little sense. 8 "players" should make this game short and quick. There's no time to waste. I won't talk about activity right now given the game just started, but I will assume people are going to be active. Glancing at the player roster we have a game where every team should have someone who can be expected to carry some weight.
I didn't read the last TMMM game entirely, but I noticed the last game had a fairly large discussion on two player vs. three player teams in the context of inactivity and the pros/cons of having a two/three player team. This discussion is pointless, wastes our precious time, and derails the town from its focus of finding and eliminating the mafia. Mafia like such a discussion because they can be active while keeping the town distracted from finding the mafia. Learning to recognize and avoid pointless arguments will get us a long way.
With that said, time for some useful discussion. Unlike the TL Mafia game's I've played, this game doesn't have a Godfather. Therefore, DTs are that much more viable, especially in terms of checking QUIET scummy teams. Medics should be protecting VOCAL pro-town teams. This way, mafia is incentivized to take pot shots at the middle of the pool, as shooting the scummy players is obviously bad and helps narrow down the pool, and shooting active players risks running into medic protection. Mafia is also incentivized to be active because a) they can draw medic protection, b) they must avoid being targetted by DT checks. Mafia can't hide at the bottom because there is no GF or miller card to save them. There are also way to few players to be able to effectively hide from DT checks. The beauty is that even if DTs/medics don't exist, mafia must still play as if they do exist. So this strategy does not rely on the existence of blue roles.
My general theory is that we need a) to let the DT check whoever he thinks is most scummy, and b) vote/make a list of the 2 top active/helpful players for the medic to protect. The reason why the DT should decide on his own who to check is merely so that mafia doesn't manipulate the target. The reason why we vote for the teams to be put on the medic list is because it is that much harder to vote for someone useless while claiming they're useful. Its a lot easier to manipulate the DT check by voting since its easier to point out flaws than real genuine activity. Of course even townies will make mistakes. So we just bypass the DT check voting.
Spam. I've had to stop reading all of the last 5 or so games after getting a day or so into it because the thread just kept expanding at a phenomenal rate. Let's try to keep the thread clean and organized. I want to make sure important information is not shoved into a corner and ignored. In order to help the town organize, I suggest that at the end of every post, everyone should write a short sentence stating the point of the post. Its easy to wander aimlessly while writing a post. Writing what the main point at the end of every post should help you stay focused, help us focus on what you're trying to convey, and restrict the mafia's ability to derail the thread.
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
***
Main points:
1) Focus on behavior analysis!
2) Stay out of useless conversations. Be pro-town and kill them rather than fan them into flame.
3) Force mafia to play proactively by threat of efficient use of blue roles.
4) Vote on medic list to protect active townies.
5) Make it a point to work toward a specific goal when posting.
what is this shit?
|
On September 19 2010 19:38 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
Ah just noticed that the game has started. I know its the weekend and people might be busy (I sure am), but I can't help but notice that something is already off in this game. A couple people are acting out of the ordinary. I'll keep a close eye on these players. However, I won't/can't afford to give them much time to straighten out their act though, so shape it up quickly so I can have time to organize my thoughts/put forward a lynch candidate.
We're not lynching based on inactivity this game folks. Its Team Melee Mafia, so inactivity lynch makes little sense. 8 "players" should make this game short and quick. There's no time to waste. I won't talk about activity right now given the game just started, but I will assume people are going to be active. Glancing at the player roster we have a game where every team should have someone who can be expected to carry some weight.
I didn't read the last TMMM game entirely, but I noticed the last game had a fairly large discussion on two player vs. three player teams in the context of inactivity and the pros/cons of having a two/three player team. This discussion is pointless, wastes our precious time, and derails the town from its focus of finding and eliminating the mafia. Mafia like such a discussion because they can be active while keeping the town distracted from finding the mafia. Learning to recognize and avoid pointless arguments will get us a long way.
With that said, time for some useful discussion. Unlike the TL Mafia game's I've played, this game doesn't have a Godfather. Therefore, DTs are that much more viable, especially in terms of checking QUIET scummy teams. Medics should be protecting VOCAL pro-town teams. This way, mafia is incentivized to take pot shots at the middle of the pool, as shooting the scummy players is obviously bad and helps narrow down the pool, and shooting active players risks running into medic protection. Mafia is also incentivized to be active because a) they can draw medic protection, b) they must avoid being targetted by DT checks. Mafia can't hide at the bottom because there is no GF or miller card to save them. There are also way to few players to be able to effectively hide from DT checks. The beauty is that even if DTs/medics don't exist, mafia must still play as if they do exist. So this strategy does not rely on the existence of blue roles.
My general theory is that we need a) to let the DT check whoever he thinks is most scummy, and b) vote/make a list of the 2 top active/helpful players for the medic to protect. The reason why the DT should decide on his own who to check is merely so that mafia doesn't manipulate the target. The reason why we vote for the teams to be put on the medic list is because it is that much harder to vote for someone useless while claiming they're useful. Its a lot easier to manipulate the DT check by voting since its easier to point out flaws than real genuine activity. Of course even townies will make mistakes. So we just bypass the DT check voting.
Spam. I've had to stop reading all of the last 5 or so games after getting a day or so into it because the thread just kept expanding at a phenomenal rate. Let's try to keep the thread clean and organized. I want to make sure important information is not shoved into a corner and ignored. In order to help the town organize, I suggest that at the end of every post, everyone should write a short sentence stating the point of the post. Its easy to wander aimlessly while writing a post. Writing what the main point at the end of every post should help you stay focused, help us focus on what you're trying to convey, and restrict the mafia's ability to derail the thread.
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
***
Main points:
1) Focus on behavior analysis!
2) Stay out of useless conversations. Be pro-town and kill them rather than fan them into flame.
3) Force mafia to play proactively by threat of efficient use of blue roles.
4) Vote on medic list to protect active townies.
5) Make it a point to work toward a specific goal when posting. what is this shit? I agree.
|
The main problem with Incognito's plan is that the existence of a DT and a Medic is not guaranteed.
I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan?
Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone?
|
Minigames are intended to be short, quick, and brutal. We really have to rely on analysis in order to drop at least 1 mafia member early (preferably today), because like LSB said, we miss 2 in a row and we're done.
That said, if we drop a scum, that gives us a ton more breathing room (1v6 instead of 2v6 gives us an extra day or two). Of course, the danger here is, what do we have to analyze?
Besides Incog's post, that is. Which does make some assumptions that aren't necessarily true.
|
Medic should protect whomever they want. That doesn't mean they should be dumb, (and they should use logic(such as incognitos) but saying "oh whoever is active and helpful should be protected" just makes it easier for the mafia to hit a non protected person.
Especially if we make a list of who they shall protect.
DTS should not only check scummy people, but try to check people with strong teams. For example, #6 and #8, with possible checks as #3 and #7 teams. In this setup it can be very good and very bad for town. If teams such as BC and Rebirth(hes good right?) are town, then confirming that will be very useful, as we have a confirmed veteran to help guide us. If they are mafia, then they can easily sidetrack us. Again, that leads to another question. If DTS do check them, they should only reveal as such if they ARE mafia. If not, then losing a DT(and possible only blue role) will do nothing.
In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves.
After I receive a PM from Korynne answering my questions I'll be more concrete in what I think we should do.
Main points:
1. Medic should use their own logic, not a confirmed person to protect. This will help with a successful protection.
2. DTS should check vets in addition to if you have a burning suspicion of someone.
3.After receiving a reply from Korynne I'll be more sure of who to lynch.
|
Just FYI, we lynch a team, rather than just one person.
|
On September 20 2010 01:59 LSB wrote:
Just FYI, we lynch a team, rather than just one person.
:O
|
On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray.
Why?
On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote:
In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves.
So I take it we're not going to follow this.
|
LSB, does pyrr know hes in this game lol? He hasn't posted at all.
|
On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice.
However, I do agree with Ace.
Ace's question needs to be answered and Bill Murray needs to show that he'll help the town. Then we'll see how things go.
|
A voice crackled up from under the metal apparatus in the middle of the floor.
Please tell me you guys are just scared, dazed, or confused rather than retarded. Do you really think you could throw just one person down here? That the other guys attached to him will just magically be detached and go on his merry life in here? You have one body, but you still have two brains, use them wisely to make your decisions.
|
On September 20 2010 02:32 Pandain wrote:
LSB, does pyrr know hes in this game lol? He hasn't posted at all.
XD Yeah I talked to him a bit, but the game just started.
I'll yell at him to post next time I catch him.
On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice. However, I do agree with Ace. Ace's question needs to be answered and Bill Murray needs to show that he'll help the town. Then we'll see how things go.
kk. Just remember, we don't have enough room for policy lynches.
|
On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice.
In a larger, nonteam game I'd agree with you. This game, two problems: A) policy lynches are bad because we have so little margin for error, and B) It's not fair to Ace, who is capable of being very very helpful to town if he's town. That should balance out the BM-spam a little bit.
Besides, I want to see the team dynamic ^^
|
Ok as this is a super super super small style of game. Team game so technically very few players in terms of lynches we have to be extremely careful. To start with we need to generate discussion and yes I have seen some of this going on already woo we need to sit down and seriously think things through.
Lynching based off inactivity remember kills a team not just one specific member but the team itself. IF an entire team is inactive maybe we can opt for them. Opting on inactivity lynches based solely off one player in a team however seems like a bad idea, especially for the trio we have.
As for a general start past this
RVS [vote] rastaban/foolishness
Both are normally fairly active players and outside of one spam post, both are afkish. Plus no one decent to vote for.
|
On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote:
Medic should protect whomever they want. That doesn't mean they should be dumb, (and they should use logic(such as incognitos) but saying "oh whoever is active and helpful should be protected" just makes it easier for the mafia to hit a non protected person.
Especially if we make a list of who they shall protect.
DTS should not only check scummy people, but try to check people with strong teams. For example, #6 and #8, with possible checks as #3 and #7 teams. In this setup it can be very good and very bad for town. If teams such as BC and Rebirth(hes good right?) are town, then confirming that will be very useful, as we have a confirmed veteran to help guide us. If they are mafia, then they can easily sidetrack us. Again, that leads to another question. If DTS do check them, they should only reveal as such if they ARE mafia. If not, then losing a DT(and possible only blue role) will do nothing.
In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves.
After I receive a PM from Korynne answering my questions I'll be more concrete in what I think we should do.
Main points:
1. Medic should use their own logic, not a confirmed person to protect. This will help with a successful protection.
2. DTS should check vets in addition to if you have a burning suspicion of someone.
3.After receiving a reply from Korynne I'll be more sure of who to lynch.
what do you mean lynching one of us will confirm us lol? if you kill one person of a team im pretty sure alignment doesnt flip, if that's even what you're getting at because you don't make it clear, that'd be pretty ridiculous. I've got my eye on you as always pandain!
I can't find it in the rules, but that's how it's been in the past...
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I'm pretty sure that we should be bypassing any and all plans to create some sort of list for the medics, for many reasons.
1) Straight up, (I'm sure Ace would appreciate this one) our goal is to find mafia and kill them, not debate or vote upon who's the most valuable team to the town. As stated before, this is a small game and we don't exactly have a boatload of days to find scum. Thus we should be using our time strictly to analyze and figure out mafia, not anything else.
2) There's a 50% chance there's no medic (assuming the setup was randomly chosen of course). That's not a high enough percentage for me to care about what a medic might be doing at night.
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
4) Korynne said medic can save themselves. There's hardly any reason the medic shouldn't be saving themselves night 1.
***
Now I haven't gotten a response back yet, but if Korynne allows it we should vote to no lynch. Either way, we have 2 shots at lynching a mafia otherwise we lose (I'm assuming that there's no medic saves). If we no lynch, this gives a DT two potential nights to check someone and find a mafia. If we lynch now (and don't hit a mafia), tomorrow there will be 6 teams alive. If we mislynch again the mafia just have to kill someone at night and it's game over. In that scenario DT had only one night's of information to help the town.
Yes I realize that there's only a 50% chance there's a DT. But either way we have 2 lynches to get a mafia, and if we no lynch that gives us more time to talk and analyze people. More time is better for the town, the mafia want things to go by as fast as possible.
-----------
Main Points:
1) Forget about making a medic list, don't vote for who the medic should protect. Focus on analyzing and finding mafia.
2) Vote for No Lynch if Korynne allows it.
|
On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
2) Vote for No Lynch if Korynne allows it.
The voice under the metal apparatus sounded again.
Uh... what part of a timer is not clear enough to you. What do you think is going to happen to all of you if no one is sacrificed when the timer is up?
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
|
Lets see, two accusations going right now
Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight
Rastaban/Foolishness: Based on the Premise that they are more inactive than usual. Foolishness pops out and disproves that.
Neither one I like
|
The RVS is just to get conversation started, and to get rasta/foolishness talking, if I understand BC correctly. I highly doubt that will end up turning into a lynch, because that would be just plain silly.
|
On September 20 2010 07:13 BrownBear wrote:
The RVS is just to get conversation started, and to get rasta/foolishness talking, if I understand BC correctly. I highly doubt that will end up turning into a lynch, because that would be just plain silly.
If it does I will be a very sad panda. Its RVS, not based on analysis
|
I think Foolishness pointed out all the reason's why Incognito's plan is bad: especially true are that no one ever seems to follow them and that medics should protect themselves until they get a really good read on someone else.
|
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated.
|
On September 20 2010 01:03 LSB wrote:
The main problem with Incognito's plan is that the existence of a DT and a Medic is not guaranteed.
I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan?
Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone?
You probably didn't read the whole way through my post. Anyway, basically mafia must always act as if there are DTs/Medics unless they want to screw themselves over. In this case, the threat holds weight even if the execution is impossible to carry out because the mafia can't know whether or not the threat is real. Town, on the other hand, shouldn't really care about if its possible or not. That's something the mafia has to worry about. I don't have any other games where this has been tried. But why is that relevant? In reference to your last question, I'll quote Foolishness here:
On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it.
As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere.
How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it...
On September 20 2010 01:54 BrownBear wrote:
Minigames are intended to be short, quick, and brutal. We really have to rely on analysis in order to drop at least 1 mafia member early (preferably today), because like LSB said, we miss 2 in a row and we're done.
That said, if we drop a scum, that gives us a ton more breathing room (1v6 instead of 2v6 gives us an extra day or two). Of course, the danger here is, what do we have to analyze?
Besides Incog's post, that is. Which does make some assumptions that aren't necessarily true.
You can't sit and wait for meaningful posts to come along so you can analyze. You have to actively work to make meaningful posts come out. Also, remember that what someone doesn't sometimes says more than what they do say. In other words, this post is says nothing. Now, what does that tell you?
On September 20 2010 03:57 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote:On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice. In a larger, nonteam game I'd agree with you. This game, two problems: A) policy lynches are bad because we have so little margin for error, and B) It's not fair to Ace, who is capable of being very very helpful to town if he's town. That should balance out the BM-spam a little bit. Besides, I want to see the team dynamic ^^
A deep hard analysis (cursory glance) of Ace's current posts shows that he doesn't really care about the game. Let's not play this game waiting for something to happen. Ace's capability says nothing about whether or not we should lynch him. If you're useless, you're useless, regardless of your usual skill level. What we care about is current play, not potential play. If your play is sucks, prepare to be lynched. That is all.
At least a couple people seem to have caught my logical inconsistency. I'm sitting here wondering why they haven't directly said anything meaningful about it.
Lastly,
On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice. However, I do agree with Ace. Ace's question needs to be answered and Bill Murray needs to show that he'll help the town. Then we'll see how things go.
This post needs an explanation. Agreeing with a question isn't really agreeing with anything, and Ace's question is trolling. The question does not seek a real response and doesn't lead anywhere. Unless, of course, you're trying to say that Ace is being helpful.
***
Main points:
1. People are misinterpreting my posts/selectively reading.
2. Content generation schemes. People need to be trying to give away their alignment. I've seen some good things since yesterday, but of course we still have some shadiness. Don't sit there and wait for content to spontaneously materialize.
3. Correction of some logically bizarre statements.
|
On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated.
What is the point of this post?
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it...
I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent.
Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game.
And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact.
I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future.
|
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick.
|
On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 01:03 LSB wrote:
The main problem with Incognito's plan is that the existence of a DT and a Medic is not guaranteed.
I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan?
Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? You probably didn't read the whole way through my post. Anyway, basically mafia must always act as if there are DTs/Medics unless they want to screw themselves over. In this case, the threat holds weight even if the execution is impossible to carry out because the mafia can't know whether or not the threat is real. Town, on the other hand, shouldn't really care about if its possible or not. That's something the mafia has to worry about. I don't have any other games where this has been tried. But why is that relevant? In reference to your last question, I'll quote Foolishness here:
Yes I did read your post. I understand that the mafia will have to act, that why I like your idea.
The main problem is that in order to implement the plan, we will have to use the blue roles in a way that they won't be actively hunting/blocking the mafia. The DT will be checking the bottom of the list of activity/people not contributing right? Mafia knows that and will contribute
The Medic will be protecting the top of the list of activity right? The mafia won't hit there.
I'm just concerned about what cost we have to pay for activity.
You now mention that the Medics/DT may or may not follow the plan, and it's all psychological. Mafia knows this too, and then the plan crumbles since the mafia will assume that the Medics/DT will not follow it. Rock paper sizzors
|
On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future.
Why would medics want to protect themselves? Actually, I'm starting to think of a reason why. If a medic protects themselves, they will gurantee protect a town and have a 1/6 chance of getting hit. If they dont, they have a 2/7 chance of protecting mafia, and a 1/6 chance of their protection working. As you see, the former offers the better odds. The only problem would be that we wouldn't be able to confirm a person who got hit, but that was unlikely anyway. Is it likely enough though?
As always, thoughts?
And again Incognito, I don't think we should have a guranteed "list" as to who the medic should protect. This makes it easier for mafia to succesfully shoot someone. However, protecting themselves will give them no information either, so that's another reason why we should do that.
Main Points:
Medic should protect themselves.
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves.
|
On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote:
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves.
An impatient voice boomed up from below.
Stop worrying so much about everything, there's a clear task ahead of you, and it better be done by the time the timer runs out. All things will be made clear as time goes on.
|
I'd like to echo Foolishness's point and say that my take on this game is that it's almost 100% scumhunting. There's a 50% shot at there being a cop and Korynne is unwilling to release any information not included in the OP. (Usually though, medics can't protect themselves) This limits any plans that we may have especially because we don't know the setup and we may not be able to investigate.
Alternatively, Korynne may be setting up a game where we can look for clues with his/her posts to perhaps find the mafia or who's innocent.
Also: EBWOP for my earlier post. I didn't realize that we couldn't NL. I overlooked Korynne's post.
Anyhow, posting is good because we actually have nothing to work with other than posts at this point in time and possibly for the entire game.
|
Great south is on our team, god damn behavior game all I read are words, dont bother with inactive checking in a team game but monitor post counts and lynch a somebody everytime.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 20 2010 10:51 bumatlarge wrote:
Great south is on our team, god damn behavior game all I read are words, dont bother with inactive checking in a team game but monitor post counts and lynch a somebody everytime.
I could really use a translation of this one...
|
On September 20 2010 09:01 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated. What is the point of this post?
Encourage Bill Murray to post / state where I am / encourage Ace and Bill Murray to act as a team rather than two people with one vote if they are town
|
On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick.
This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit.
|
Just caught up on all that has happened, but it doesn't look like I missed too much. I think it is a good idea if we have the medic protect the more active people but I think a medic list is a bad idea.
|
On September 20 2010 14:15 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit.
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving.
|
lol wow I just caught up and that SR post is retarded.
Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.
Although if that is the case, I sincerely doubt medics can protect themselves. It will be really OP if a medic could just hoard protections on themselves all game since the mafia couldn't possibly kill them. On the other hand if they can only protect half a person they are a useless role. So medics either suck, are OP or aren't in the game. I'd lean towards not being in this set up especially since Korynne remained vague on the answer. I assume the logic is the same as when one of the mafia games had 6 variations of detectives but only 4 were authentic. The point in that was to add more to think about and take into consideration, but in reality it wasn't practical at all because it would break the game.
On that note, I will just go with my team mate and vote for Rasta/Foolishness for picking at incognitos post and ignoring the validity of medic protection list (even though I think medics probably aren't in this game, or at LEAST can't protect themselves)
To summarize because I like Incognito's idea about that.
1. For the moment I am leading towards foolishness/Rasta just because we have nothing better to go on.
2. Really doubt there is a medic role since it seems like it would be really OP, or really shitty depending on how Korynne decided to balance it, and her unwillingness to clarify in thread makes me think its not important.
3. Vote for Foolishness/Rasta just to make it clear.
Its day one though, so I reserve my right to completely change my mind for little to no reason :D
|
On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future.
Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now.
Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1
We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset.
In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent.
Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch.
Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams.
Main Points:
1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy.
2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town.
3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now.
4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch
|
Also Korynne, as a good host you really should answer reasonable questions and be consistent in your answers. As much as its cute to answer in story mode, its just a headache if you don't tell people the rules. Not to mention unfair. Especially if you are clarifying rules in PM land.
On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote:
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves.
Also the no-lynch thing: A no-lynch should be allowed. Depriving the town of that option is pro-mafia and is nonsensical especially in a small game. In 30 player games, a single lynch doesn't hurt all too much, but being forced to lynch in an 8 person game is brutal. Especially since you have to lynch when there are an odd number of players left.
|
I was pretty much out of it all day. What did I miss?
|
On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future. Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now. Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch. Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams. Main Points: 1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy. 2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town. 3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now. 4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch
LSB's plan was based on coordinating blues - we might not have a single blue this game. We can't really confirm anything because for the few roles we have... we don't even know how they work. LSB had a plan in one game - a plan that was started by Bill Murray and then edited by Pandain and then picked up by LSB. So LSB is suspicious because he hasn't posted a plan yet? I suppose the Medic plan would be an okay idea if it got us talking, but another problem I have is that I don't know who I would vote for other than LSB and I. If the medic can prot themselves, that would be their best option. The deterrence factor could be a good reason for it so we might as well do it.
My post wasn't meaningless - you asked me why I made it and I told you. Not only has BM been quieter than usual, so has Ace, who is certainly more known for plans than LSB. He usually doesn't show up and ask for an explanation unless he is subbing in and he usually tries to browbeat the town into doing something when town (same with BM who doesn't mind making crazy plans and FoSing anyone who criticizes them).
Also, I don't know BC to usually use this "RVS" tactic - it is usually a Bill Murray move. Any bandwagoning in a game this small is dangerous so if their vote sits tight under bad circumstances I will be onto them.
|
On September 20 2010 16:04 Incognito wrote:Also Korynne, as a good host you really should answer reasonable questions and be consistent in your answers. As much as its cute to answer in story mode, its just a headache if you don't tell people the rules. Not to mention unfair. Especially if you are clarifying rules in PM land. Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote:
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves. Also the no-lynch thing: A no-lynch should be allowed. Depriving the town of that option is pro-mafia and is nonsensical especially in a small game. In 30 player games, a single lynch doesn't hurt all too much, but being forced to lynch in an 8 person game is brutal. Especially since you have to lynch when there are an odd number of players left.
Yes, please clarify this stuff publicly.
I have no idea what you mean about things becoming gradually clear. Are you going to give us the rules post on Day 2? Or is there some weird Caller/Shyamalan secret twist in the rules? I don't think either of those are true but the fact I am even thinking about them at least lets you know what effect your cryptic talk is having.
|
I was going to explain how medics work at the night post, since like, it's not really necessary immediately? Apparently it is. So medics can self-protect.
Hmm... I see how no no-lynch can be an issue... So one no lynch then.
Clarifying the team vs. individual thing:
Every person votes for a Team in the thread. A member of a two person team has 3 vote tokens, a member of a three person team has 2 vote tokens. Each team has 6 vote tokens.
The team with the highest number of vote tokens placed on it is lynched.
Mafia Team A and Mafia Team B have one Team KP per night.
Doctor Team has one Team Protection per night.
Cop Team has one Team Check per night (though obviously since each team has the same alignment this doesn't really matter).
If mafia target Team X, and Doctor Team is not protecting Team X, then Team X dies.
If mafia targets Team Y, and Doctor Team is protecting Team Y, then no one dies at night.
Extending day for 24 hours so people can sort through things. My apologies.
Let me know if there are any other issues I should address. (This is a bit hobo because it was supposed to be f11 then there were not enough players.)
|
On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving.
@pyrr
excuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy?
@everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip.
I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture.
I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content.
@mod votecount please
##vote: team 2
|
|
|
Making a medic list at this point is useless other than just to play mindgames with the mafia, since they don't know if the medic will actually follow it or not... I agree though that they should be protecting the most active people... since even if that person ends up being mafia, the papertrail will be huge.
@BM
Why the vote? Can you explain...other than just fluff posting...
I doubt that the quote is actually a slipup, but if it was that's clever.
@Incog
Can you really characterize a person's play by a single game... I know myself I played very differently my first game than my second, usually you're really excited the first game eager to contribute but that calms down after a while. I'm sure it's hard for you to remember your first game :p
I do agree that neither have been really pro-town but that's a common characteristic
On September 20 2010 16:04 Incognito wrote:Also Korynne, as a good host you really should answer reasonable questions and be consistent in your answers. As much as its cute to answer in story mode, its just a headache if you don't tell people the rules. Not to mention unfair. Especially if you are clarifying rules in PM land. Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote:
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves. Also the no-lynch thing: A no-lynch should be allowed. Depriving the town of that option is pro-mafia and is nonsensical especially in a small game. In 30 player games, a single lynch doesn't hurt all too much, but being forced to lynch in an 8 person game is brutal. Especially since you have to lynch when there are an odd number of players left. Last edit: 2010-09-20 16:07:20
Why the edit?? And after all that high talk about what a good game host should do... tsk
On September 20 2010 16:08 Ace wrote:
I was pretty much out of it all day. What did I miss?
Cmon I know you can do better than that...
Vote: Team 6
BC's only real post is this:
On September 20 2010 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ok as this is a super super super small style of game. Team game so technically very few players in terms of lynches we have to be extremely careful. To start with we need to generate discussion and yes I have seen some of this going on already woo we need to sit down and seriously think things through.
Lynching based off inactivity remember kills a team not just one specific member but the team itself. IF an entire team is inactive maybe we can opt for them. Opting on inactivity lynches based solely off one player in a team however seems like a bad idea, especially for the trio we have.
As for a general start past this
RVS [vote] rastaban/foolishness
Both are normally fairly active players and outside of one spam post, both are afkish. Plus no one decent to vote for.
For a verteran player, this says absolutely nothing... I mean he says lynching off inactivity is bad, and makes a RVS vote, saying repeatedly that its a nothing vote and he doesn't want to be held accountable for it...
As for RoL, we find the same lack of commitment except he adds in some fluff about whether or not there is medics in this game...
On September 20 2010 15:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
lol wow I just caught up and that SR post is retarded.
Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.
Although if that is the case, I sincerely doubt medics can protect themselves. It will be really OP if a medic could just hoard protections on themselves all game since the mafia couldn't possibly kill them. On the other hand if they can only protect half a person they are a useless role. So medics either suck, are OP or aren't in the game. I'd lean towards not being in this set up especially since Korynne remained vague on the answer. I assume the logic is the same as when one of the mafia games had 6 variations of detectives but only 4 were authentic. The point in that was to add more to think about and take into consideration, but in reality it wasn't practical at all because it would break the game.
On that note, I will just go with my team mate and vote for Rasta/Foolishness for picking at incognitos post and ignoring the validity of medic protection list (even though I think medics probably aren't in this game, or at LEAST can't protect themselves)
To summarize because I like Incognito's idea about that.
1. For the moment I am leading towards foolishness/Rasta just because we have nothing better to go on.
2. Really doubt there is a medic role since it seems like it would be really OP, or really shitty depending on how Korynne decided to balance it, and her unwillingness to clarify in thread makes me think its not important.
3. Vote for Foolishness/Rasta just to make it clear.
Its day one though, so I reserve my right to completely change my mind for little to no reason :D
|
There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here.
On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 14:15 BrownBear wrote:On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit. That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving.
This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?).
On September 20 2010 14:51 rastaban wrote:
Just caught up on all that has happened, but it doesn't look like I missed too much. I think it is a good idea if we have the medic protect the more active people but I think a medic list is a bad idea.
Care to explain why? Foolishness has come out and posted some content, but if this is all you have to show for yourself...
On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 03:57 BrownBear wrote:
In a larger, nonteam game I'd agree with you. This game, two problems: A) policy lynches are bad because we have so little margin for error, and B) It's not fair to Ace, who is capable of being very very helpful to town if he's town. That should balance out the BM-spam a little bit.
Besides, I want to see the team dynamic ^^ A deep hard analysis (cursory glance) of Ace's current posts shows that he doesn't really care about the game. Let's not play this game waiting for something to happen. Ace's capability says nothing about whether or not we should lynch him. If you're useless, you're useless, regardless of your usual skill level. What we care about is current play, not potential play. If your play is sucks, prepare to be lynched. That is all. At least a couple people seem to have caught my logical inconsistency. I'm sitting here wondering why they haven't directly said anything meaningful about it.
So you were fishing, interesting. I don't really see anything meaningful to say about it, though. You assume something that isn't true, yes, but it's way too early to start jumping on small things like that and screaming "mafia". Especially if you're town, it just pits people against each other while mafia stands back and laughs.
|
To be honest, i don't think any bandwagoning should happen yet. Of course, we probably shouldn't use our no-lynch, as that's giving mafia a free day to whack one of us. When you look at what's been posted so far, there isn't enough evidence to go on, so let's wait for some more posting before we vote. New posts = more to analyze = better chance of catching scum day one. If we do happen to use our no-lynch, i don't think it changes the two-mislynch-lose thing we have going. Even so, we shouldn't waste it yet.
|
I find the ROL vote on our team weird since BC already clarified it was regarding inactivity and no for anything suspicious. ROL then says he agrees with that and votes. I don't know much about ROL so maybe this is how he played previously.
Now that we have a no lynch,it needs to be today if we use it. Normally I don't favor a no lynch but it might be ok in this situation. The reason I say that is that we still get 2 lyches,
if we lynch wrong
2-5
Night Kill
2-4 (LYLO)
Lynch Wrong
2-3
Night Kill
2-2 Mafia WIn
No lynch
2-6
Night Kill
2-5
Miss Lynch
2-4
Night kill
2-3 (LYLO)
Miss lynch
2-2 (Mafia Win)
The value I see in a no lynch is that we end up with these two chances and a kill to base our lynches off of.
2/7
and 2/5
With a kill tonight we still have lylo after 2 lynches but our first lynch isn't made off of a kill and
we have these chances:
2/8
and 2/6
Of course this could be changed if we have power roles but I am putting forth the worst case scenario as an example. While do lose the benefit of discussion on a lynch target today we still get 2 lynches to discuss and we get today's lynch/no lynch discussion. We also get extra time since we have an additional day to discuss and we get 2 mafia hits before Lylo instead of 1 to help us pick right.
|
@BB, I disagree with you saying a no lynch is bad, I think it actually makes sense. Maybe I am wrong but I think it should be discussed.
I played SC2 all yesterday so thats why I didn't get much done in this thread. sorry
Regarding the slip up, I don't think we should bandwagon on it but I think we shouldn't dismiss it either. In PYP DTA slipped up day one by mentioning exactly how many members there were and it was forgotten. While the makes assumptions the mafia knows it to be true, so even though that game DTA was defended since everyone assumed there were 4 mafia they would have been less likely to say it being as they at least a little bit know that things could be slightly different.
That said I don't even know that this is a slip up since for it to be one then both players would have to be scum. It seems he is replying tho the BB's insinuated accusation that since the post is bad he is scum. Pyrr says well he doesn't post any better when he is town.
So I guess the TLDR would be that we shouldn't weight it too heavy but keep it in mind and if one is red the other is more likely to be red as well.
|
On September 21 2010 02:39 rastaban wrote:
@BB, I disagree with you saying a no lynch is bad, I think it actually makes sense. Maybe I am wrong but I think it should be discussed.
I played SC2 all yesterday so thats why I didn't get much done in this thread. sorry
Regarding the slip up, I don't think we should bandwagon on it but I think we shouldn't dismiss it either. In PYP DTA slipped up day one by mentioning exactly how many members there were and it was forgotten. While the makes assumptions the mafia knows it to be true, so even though that game DTA was defended since everyone assumed there were 4 mafia they would have been less likely to say it being as they at least a little bit know that things could be slightly different.
That said I don't even know that this is a slip up since for it to be one then both players would have to be scum. It seems he is replying tho the BB's insinuated accusation that since the post is bad he is scum. Pyrr says well he doesn't post any better when he is town.
So I guess the TLDR would be that we shouldn't weight it too heavy but keep it in mind and if one is red the other is more likely to be red as well.
I'm not saying that he is clearly scum because of this slip, although I could see how it could be insinuated. I'm merely saying exactly what you said - it bears watching.
Also, the way you pitch the no-lynch actually makes sense. I was disagreeing with the concept of giving mafia a free kill on us, but you do raise a good point. I'd like to hear others' opinions on this as well.
|
On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:
First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset.
Okay, obviously you haven’t played with me much. Mafia XXX was my rookie game, and it had some exceptional circumstances.
First of all, it had lots of varied blue roles. That way planning was possible.
On the other hand, Kor is following E9+1 townie. This setup is made so it isn’t able to be broken. It is slightly town favored. Simply put, there is no plan that is optimal because we do not know the existence of blue roles.
Secondly, PYP I supported the plan because it was solid. I did not support your plan because it’s mafia favored
Also, what happened to my Penalty mafia, and my RAM mafia games? To call me a planner in those games is laughable.
In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism.
First, could you answer this question?
I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan?
I want to read other games where this plan works. I don’t know how you got this to be stir the pot.
What part of
Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone?
Do you not get? Where is the erroneous logic?
I admit, the DT I thought of later, that is why I turned against your plan. Because it really is mafia favored.
In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here.
Since when have I proposed fixes for broken plans? There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on. Your acting like a baby, crying that your toy is broken, throwing a tantrum because other people can’t fix it
Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent.
To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies
|
On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?).
That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.
|
On September 21 2010 01:23 meeple wrote:Vote: Team 6BC's only real post is this: Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ok as this is a super super super small style of game. Team game so technically very few players in terms of lynches we have to be extremely careful. To start with we need to generate discussion and yes I have seen some of this going on already woo we need to sit down and seriously think things through.
Lynching based off inactivity remember kills a team not just one specific member but the team itself. IF an entire team is inactive maybe we can opt for them. Opting on inactivity lynches based solely off one player in a team however seems like a bad idea, especially for the trio we have.
As for a general start past this
RVS [vote] rastaban/foolishness
Both are normally fairly active players and outside of one spam post, both are afkish. Plus no one decent to vote for.
For a verteran player, this says absolutely nothing... I mean he says lynching off inactivity is bad, and makes a RVS vote, saying repeatedly that its a nothing vote and he doesn't want to be held accountable for it...
Keep in mind meeple that this the first game of this format (not just team melee style but essentially an eight player game). Couple with the amount of inactivity till the time of my post you quoted the amount of useful work I can do is next to nil with lack of posts to analyze.
As for saying nothing? it says alot, I disagree with inactive lynches in a game format in which it harshly punishes the town for a mislynch, and then did RVS which can possibly force people to speak up and talk. I assume the purpose of your quoting me was for the same purpose. When enough posts are given that I can properly analyze people the easier I can to help. Also, keep in mind, aside from some general accusations you also didn't say much and just quoted people which also isn't helpful.
|
Okay, I believe it is essential to use the No Lynch.
The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist).
And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change
I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits.
|
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr
|
On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr
When you read the thread, it should become obvious what is content and what isn't. What you post isn't content. What Incognito posts is. It's like night and day.
Also,
[Vote]No Lynch
rasta and LSB have very good points, so I'll stick with this plan for now. I know it's a reversal of my earlier position, but I believe their logic is sound.
|
On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr
Don't get defensive, you've done nothing scum like. No one has any real suscipsion other than "he hasn't made much content" when alot of other people haven't eitiher.
But you can make content filled posts. For example, Medic should protect himself as it offers a higher chance of working succesfully. Another thing which can be discussed is whether we should lynch or not. I was highly in favor of non lynching, and now that we're actually able to I was thinking we should do that. However, then Pyrr made that slip up, and while I assume he could be innocent and make that statement, I still think he's a highly recommended choice for the DT to check.
But if we don't lynch, and theres no dt, what does it really do for us? It makes us so we're able to end the game. This means ultimately we'll be the ones deciding, and we'll have the most information when the last hit comes. But again, if theres no dt, then its all for null and might actually help mafia.
Thoughts?
|
On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.
If you're certain why aren't you trying hard to convince the rest of us they are scum?
|
On September 21 2010 02:39 rastaban wrote:
That said I don't even know that this is a slip up since for it to be one then both players would have to be scum. It seems he is replying tho the BB's insinuated accusation that since the post is bad he is scum. Pyrr says well he doesn't post any better when he is town.
This. I've been on I think at least two scum teams (in previous games, because I apparently have to clarify that) with SR. I think I've only been in one game where he was town. Both games he made a lot of long, seemingly complicated posts at first glance that just showed the gears of his mind working like that.
|
On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.
Then tell us more, instead of trying to breadcrumb it to us.
|
Dammit Ace, you're faster than me
|
On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.
What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me.
|
On September 21 2010 04:54 BrownBear wrote:Dammit Ace, you're faster than me
word ^_^
|
and both of you are faster than me ._.
|
On September 21 2010 04:49 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr When you read the thread, it should become obvious what is content and what isn't. What you post isn't content. What Incognito posts is. It's like night and day. Also, [Vote]No Lynchrasta and LSB have very good points, so I'll stick with this plan for now. I know it's a reversal of my earlier position, but I believe their logic is sound.
We only get a single "No Lynch" if I understand correctly... you really think we should waste it on the first day?
|
oh damn, only one shot at a No Lynch?
unless this day produces anything significant AND you don't want to waste the No Lynch you really are better off lynching an inactive. Even though I somewhat agree with whoever said that in this format killing off inactive players isn't really great, we don't really have much of a choice with 1 No Lynch.
I'd be willing to hear more about how LSB is certain that Team 2 is scum.
|
damn ace i made a huge post that you just summarized in like 4 lines lol
|
On September 21 2010 04:54 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me.
yeah pandain had me confused into thinking players got lynched instead of teams lol. It's probably his scum jedi mind tricks at work.
Bum wasn't drunk that's just his accent coming through in his posts.
And SR has always been really good at posting really poorly.
I would be all in favour of no lynching day 1, i mean why not use it on the day where we have the least information to go on? We'll still gain something as there will be a nk, or a medic protect to stop it or maybe even a DT check or something.
But instead of throwing around wild allegations (which alot of people seem to be doing) i would much rather not kill an innocent today, which is what 95% to happen on day1? and go with a no lynch
so
##vote no lynch
|
we need no lynch later on in case we get to mylo at 3v1
voting no lynch right now is very dumb
|
On September 21 2010 05:33 Bill Murray wrote:
damn ace i made a huge post that you just summarized in like 4 lines lol
Well post something else because this town is boring. I'm about to move.
|
LSB's admission is only icing on the cake
@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy?
On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr
This makes me confident in my earlier read
he is appealing to pyrr's authority.
Scummy, scummy, scummy.
@meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia.
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot.
##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek
|
On September 21 2010 05:56 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 05:33 Bill Murray wrote:
damn ace i made a huge post that you just summarized in like 4 lines lol Well post something else because this town is boring. I'm about to move.
I'm on top of it, broski
Hopefully this clarifies some things. You won't have to move when we kill these scum off. We will restore our lakes to their pristine conditions, and will take control of their mafia-owned warehouse.
I was thinkin about makin it into a P.F. Chang's or Bennigan's or somethin'.
|
I've never eaten at P.F. Chang's but I've heard it's good. Wouldn't mind some new delicacies in town over this scummy food they serve now.
|
*Pandain enters the stadium, gargles his throat and stands up to the Podium"
My friends, we need not kill someone today. I know that recent events have shown a horrific mafia insurrection to have taken place in our peaceful town, but if will pray listen to me I will show you that violence should not be taken first.
An estimated 2 out of the 8 factions have aligned themselves with these mafia fellows, and while we have routed out the source, their infection lives on. If we decide to eat a faction, then there is a 75% chance that we will be wrong if we guess randomly. If we devour a town faction, then our DTS will become useless. For you see, in the rare chance that our Panda Inspectors find one of the traitorous factions, a mafia can simply fake claim that they themselves are the dts. Then we will be at a "word-against word" dillema, with a 50% chance of losing the game right there. In fact, the Evil Panda Poachers could claim first they had found mafia, and we would literally be at a crossroads.
However, if we lay down our arms and let the day pass, we allow our Panda Inspectors to investigate freely, medics to go unharmed, and in the future have one less potential suspect(even though there is a terrible cost for that.) Then in the situation a "word against word" situation arises, we can eat one of them, drink his memory and find out whether he was good or not.
My fellow Pandas, don't you see? Pandas are supposed to be peaceful! And I, Pandain the Panda, urge you to not eat someone today.
|
Is this a softclaim of a blue role? if not it is completely worthless.
We need to save our no lynch for potential MyLo situations like 4v2 (VERY POSSIBLE) or 3v1
|
Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing
And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time:
Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25%
Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0%
This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects.
So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going.
Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument.
|
On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument.
The only reason we should lynch someone is if someone brings a convincing accusation of someone, and we feel he has a high chance of being mafia, rather than just lynching like we normally do on day 1. It seems to me day 1 lynches are usually wrong, and while you are superb and this game Ace, if that happens we will go to the situation where we will only have our guts to tell us something. In addition, we'd have to either
1)Lynch someone again, with 60% chance of hitting town, with no information to help us.
2) DT finds something, mafia counter claims, we're stuck at word against word.
3)Mafia just decide to fake claim anyway, will lead to word against word.
However if we don't lynch today then we won't have to worry about that situation, we'll have more of a chance of killing mafia, and we'll be able to make the deciding choice to end the game, not mafia(meaning we'll have the most information at the end.) A problem I do see with not lynching is that in the case of no DT(think there's 50% chance of that) it will be absolutely worthless in its benefits to the Panda Inspector. Therefore, not lynching is not the definitive thing to do yet, just what I would favor unless I see a convincing argument.
I'll reread the accusations and make up my mind.
|
So there has been some good discussion occurring. As is typical, there are plenty of flaws in arguments. The key here is to figure out where people are trying to be productive (granted, a difficult task on day 1) and where people are trying to look like they're being productive or otherwise staying out of the line of fire.
I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions.
I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively.
|
On September 21 2010 06:41 YellowInk wrote:
So there has been some good discussion occurring. As is typical, there are plenty of flaws in arguments. The key here is to figure out where people are trying to be productive (granted, a difficult task on day 1) and where people are trying to look like they're being productive or otherwise staying out of the line of fire.
I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions.
I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively.
And how about you, YellowInk? You haven't contributed much either, yet I hear you are quite adept at this game.
|
he is a good player, but even good players will have trouble pulling traction in a game like this. This is a very high-level game.
|
I'd like to remind someone of this:
There are to be NO private messages this game for most roles. Roles that may PM will be told to them.
|
On September 21 2010 07:06 Bill Murray wrote:
he is a good player, but even good players will have trouble pulling traction in a game like this. This is a very high-level game.
Truth. This game is pretty over my head so far, and I consider myself at least an average player. Ah well, time to try to step it up a bit.
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot.
Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure.
On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument.
I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!)
I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation.
On September 21 2010 06:08 Ace wrote:
I've never eaten at P.F. Chang's but I've heard it's good. Wouldn't mind some new delicacies in town over this scummy food they serve now.
It's overrated, honestly
----
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
|
On September 21 2010 07:21 Bill Murray wrote:I'd like to remind someone of this: Show nested quote +There are to be NO private messages this game for most roles. Roles that may PM will be told to them.
Its ok, Ace is your partner, he is suppose to PM you.
+ Show Spoiler +j/k I assume it was some one else PMing you
I think it is a good point that we can use the no lynch tomorrow to get the extra time if today's fails. Now I think this is slightly worse since today's lynch would be less informed.
What this means is that we should proceed with a lynch today, and then shortly before the deadline review all players and see if the leading group is scummy enough. It is still a shot in the dark we no lynch, if the evidence is good we lynch and then no-lynch tomorrow if we were wrong.
|
@ BB, I don't like the idea of the DT claiming unless he has a red. that is how a DT can prove himself.
Also there is only a 25% chance of us having both but a 50% chance of having a DT which makes the no lynch even better
|
I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff.
Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet.
Thoughts?
|
On September 21 2010 08:20 bumatlarge wrote:
I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff.
Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet.
Thoughts?
Medic should NOT claim. What the medic should do is protect himself, but remain hidden. If the medic claims, then mafia will have to strike in the dark, and have a chance that they will hit someone whos protected. In addition, a claimed medic will really have no use, as there are no pms(so we can't rally around them for example.) Furthormore, mafia might as well claim medic if all they have to do is protect themselves since it might gain them some brownie points(+ add the fact that town wouldn't want to lynch a medic), so it would be win win for mafia(unless a medic counter claimed.)
In addition, protecting himself AND revealing himself will mean that mafia will simply know not to hit that person, and anyone else they hit will be a confirmed hit. So it's simply not good for town.
By protecting himself, however, medic will protect a confirmed townie, medic in addition, while negating the risk of protecting a red which might happen if they didn't protect themselves.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I'm still going to advocate we No Lynch now instead of later. We need more time to discuss things before we lynch as even now I feel like we might as well just use a RNG (I mean we don't have much information at the moment). A team being dead gives us more information (or an angel save is just better), and there's a slight possibility we have a DT, who could give us a good check.
BM says we need to keep our No lynch incase we get into a 3v1 situation. I can understand that, but that scenario isn't for certain. And actually, barring any medic saves, if we no lynch today that situation is not possible to happen. 5v2 after night's over. Mislynch goes to 4v2. 3v2 after night's over. Lynch a mafia (otherwise game over) brings it to 3v1, then to 2v1 the next day. Other way is if we lynch right tomorrow we're at 5v1. 4v1 after night's over. Mislynch goes to 3v1, then 2v1 once night's over.
So there's no need to save it in case we get into a 3v1 scenario. Just use the no lynch now, and we're going to avoid a 3v1 unless there's a medic save along the way.
If someone has said that we should lynch today and no lynch tomorrow, the outcome will still be the same in the long run. Only difference is that we no lynch today giving us more time to talk and night actions to help us with our lynch. It doesn't make sense to lynch today and not lynch tomorrow.
Vote: No Lynch
|
On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing
Sorry to be thick here, but can you specify which conditions need to be met?
And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time:
Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25%
Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0%
This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects.
So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going.
Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument.
I really want to elaborate on no lynching since we only have one. I really don't like hinging off of blue roles so simply saying "It gives our DTs an extra check" isn't an entirely valid reason. I think if we could 100% say there is a DT then having a no lynch would be justified simply on that merit alone, but we can't. This is also assuming you have a competent DT.
Now for the long term benefits of no lynching now. The way mafia works is the first day always sucks and has the least information, as the game progresses we obviously get more and more information. The reason I mention this is because I saw a couple of people saying "we should save it for 4v2 or 3v1 scenarios" and while that is true we can look at the grand scheme of things as well. If it ever gets to that point we are either going to be 2 or 3 days any person who considers themselves decent at mafia should be comfortable enough to figure out exactly who is mafia, and if you couldn't you were probably fucked anyway.
So knowing that we will have plenty of more information tomorrow now seems like the best time to use our single no lynch because IF we have blues it gives them more time to be useful, and even if we don't it allows us more time to gather information, instead of waiting until a 4:2 or 3:1 scenario.
so Vote: No Lynch
and now I should go back and try to analyze posts even though I don't think we have much to work with yet, it doesn't mean there is nothing. So I think a no lynch today is the most beneficial choice for us right now.
|
On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure.
Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases.
BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2.
On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument.
I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!)
I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation.
[/quote]
This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
|
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy.
I don't get what you mean about SR appealing to my authority. All I did was say that SR always posts these stream of consciousness posts that say very little with many words. When I was on scum team(s) with SR these worried me. When both SR and I were town aligned last game, they made me suspicious of him. I have come to the conclusion that he makes posts like these all the time. Now, when red he has made some suspicious votes so I can recommend we watch his voting carefully. If anything strikes me as scummy about SR so far, it is that he got really defensive, thinking I was attacking him when I was, in fact, pointing out that he was posting in his usual way.
I honestly don't know why LSB is suspicious of team 2. He said "we" were somehow almost certain that team 2 was mafia so maybe he has another partner I don't know about, given that I posted earlier in the thread to say SR was being SR.
To answer SR: I just thought that the fact there was no easy confirmation plan on Day 1 was rather self-explanatory but thank you for posting.
|
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek
You're just being ridiculous here. What sort of authority are you talking about and how on earth am I appealing to it? I'm just pointing out that the majority of the posts here don't really have content anyways.
About your reasoning for saving our NL, here is what happens if we NL now.
Day 1 NL
6v2
Night kill
Day 2 lynching scum (I'm going to say that we lynch scum here because there is a slightly higher chance of lynching scum on day 2 than there is on day 1)
5v1
nightkill
Day 3
4v1 (possible win)
mislynch+night kill
Day 4
2v1 (lylo)
No real difference.
Your explanation doesn't really help. The two scenarios both have the game going for 4 days and I do believe that we will fuck up the day 1 lynch if we end up going through with it. It has the largest margin of error of any of the days until we manage to lynch our first scum. There was a reason I made my earlier post. There really is no benefit to either. It all depends on how the town feels about the scumminess of the teams.
Finally, On September 20 2010 15:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
lol wow I just caught up and that SR post is retarded.
Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.
Although if that is the case, I sincerely doubt medics can protect themselves. It will be really OP if a medic could just hoard protections on themselves all game since the mafia couldn't possibly kill them. On the other hand if they can only protect half a person they are a useless role. So medics either suck, are OP or aren't in the game. I'd lean towards not being in this set up especially since Korynne remained vague on the answer. I assume the logic is the same as when one of the mafia games had 6 variations of detectives but only 4 were authentic. The point in that was to add more to think about and take into consideration, but in reality it wasn't practical at all because it would break the game.
On that note, I will just go with my team mate and vote for Rasta/Foolishness for picking at incognitos post and ignoring the validity of medic protection list (even though I think medics probably aren't in this game, or at LEAST can't protect themselves)
To summarize because I like Incognito's idea about that.
1. For the moment I am leading towards foolishness/Rasta just because we have nothing better to go on.
2. Really doubt there is a medic role since it seems like it would be really OP, or really shitty depending on how Korynne decided to balance it, and her unwillingness to clarify in thread makes me think its not important.
3. Vote for Foolishness/Rasta just to make it clear.
Its day one though, so I reserve my right to completely change my mind for little to no reason :D
Alright so: That is an incredibly scummy statement if I've ever seen one. (see bolded) This is a really poor justification for voting someone. That early in the game, of course there is nothing to go on. As your teammate had said, we must focus on behavior analysis. However, you seem to agree with his inital vote and then completely ignore the parts of his posts concerning the tactics we should use for the afore-mentioned behaviour analysis. Also, concerning the parts of your post about the medic list, the WIFOM exists regardless of whether or not the medic list is there. In fact, it's general rule of thumb to trust the medic to do his job properly by protecting the person in the most danger of getting NKed. The part about the medic being or not being OP is not even worth reading. Before you criticize my post, look to your own.
|
On September 21 2010 09:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. To answer SR: I just thought that the fact there was no easy confirmation plan on Day 1 was rather self-explanatory but thank you for posting.
Well as I predicted, some people don't seem to think so.
|
Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now.
Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful.
Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action".
This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him.
Anyways, I'll still post my thoughts
Divinek
+ Show Spoiler +Firstly I'm looking at Divinek's actions actions in Callers game. (He is anti-town, dunno the full story yet) Did a few accusations, nothing major. Was more of a bandwagoner The main thing is, he doesn't defend himself much. He just tries to laugh things off. He also ignored my accusations in Penalty mafia (He was mafia). Likewise in Penalty mafia he was a bandwagoner. So look for: Laugh accusations off, bandwagons The main thing is, it seems that he is jumping to defend himself at the littlest things now, small accusations that are extremely far fetched. On September 19 2010 11:40 meeple wrote:
I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. ^random speculation On September 19 2010 14:38 Divinek wrote:
i have no idea why he's on our team tbh, im assuming it has something to do with the power of greyskull. Divinek immediately jumps on this, and does his laugh it off defense. Also another defense On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote:
In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves. I immediately shot that idea down On September 20 2010 01:59 LSB wrote:
Just FYI, we lynch a team, rather than just one person. And I felt that conversation should have ended right there. To my surprise, Divinek suddenly posts On September 20 2010 05:49 Divinek wrote:
what do you mean lynching one of us will confirm us lol? if you kill one person of a team im pretty sure alignment doesnt flip, if that's even what you're getting at because you don't make it clear, that'd be pretty ridiculous. I've got my eye on you as always pandain!
I can't find it in the rules, but that's how it's been in the past...
Divinek should know that the whole team gets killed. He was lynched day two in the first TMM game. Obviously this idea has been destroyed already, since I pointed out that it wouldn’t work as per the rules, but why does Divinek suddenly try to offer a random explanation? I can only think that he is paranoid. Now, you might say that town defend themselves and this doesn’t mean anything. But these are the only posts that Divinek makes. He hasn’t contributed anything at all.That also mean that Divinek hasn’t been attempting to bandwagon people yet, but that’s because there has been no real attacking post yet.
Divinek 2
+ Show Spoiler +Later on Divinek makes this post On September 21 2010 05:38 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:54 Infundibulum wrote:On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me. yeah pandain had me confused into thinking players got lynched instead of teams lol. It's probably his scum jedi mind tricks at work. Bum wasn't drunk that's just his accent coming through in his posts. And SR has always been really good at posting really poorly. I would be all in favour of no lynching day 1, i mean why not use it on the day where we have the least information to go on? We'll still gain something as there will be a nk, or a medic protect to stop it or maybe even a DT check or something. But instead of throwing around wild allegations (which alot of people seem to be doing) i would much rather not kill an innocent today, which is what 95% to happen on day1? and go with a no lynch so ##vote no lynch This seems consistent, he’s defending himself. Also, since Team 2 is the team that’s getting the most votes right now, he can’t bandwagon that, he’ll go for the next best option, no lynch
SouthRawrea
+ Show Spoiler +Okay, as town, he is pretty hard to understand. I played with him in PyP, and I just ignored his posts because they took to long to read through, and then I find that he’s making lots of assumptions At the same time though, he always put his two cents in. On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. Translation: It doesn’t matter what we do. This is very unhelpful. He makes a long post just to say nothing at all. On September 20 2010 10:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
I'd like to echo Foolishness's point and say that my take on this game is that it's almost 100% scumhunting. There's a 50% shot at there being a cop and Korynne is unwilling to release any information not included in the OP. (Usually though, medics can't protect themselves) This limits any plans that we may have especially because we don't know the setup and we may not be able to investigate.
Alternatively, Korynne may be setting up a game where we can look for clues with his/her posts to perhaps find the mafia or who's innocent.
Also: EBWOP for my earlier post. I didn't realize that we couldn't NL. I overlooked Korynne's post.
Anyhow, posting is good because we actually have nothing to work with other than posts at this point in time and possibly for the entire game. Again, he doesn’t say anything besides we should play as normal This isn’t putting his two cents in. This is simply just posting random stuff so it looks like he’s active On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr Okay, now he explains his posts, he’s saying that it’s impossible to make a plan. At the same time though, Incogs plan already declared that the existence of a cop is moot, all we need is the intimidation factor. Although I don’t agree with Incog’s plan, SouthRawrea’s post completely ignores this. At the same time, to try to prove that we can’t make a plan? That seems incredibly anti-town. A good plan wins the town games. To try persuade us that we can’t make a plan seems pretty scummy.
Bumatlarge (Now seems pro town)
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 04:52 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. If you're certain why aren't you trying hard to convince the rest of us they are scum? I wanted to see what Bum would write. He really hasn’t posted anything. And there’s no way to tell if he’s busy, or if he is lurking. Bum then posts a pretty pro town post On September 21 2010 08:20 bumatlarge wrote:
I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff.
Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet.
Thoughts? I like the idea, basically we get a tree stump, that can vote, and someone is confirmed. That could clear up a lot of confusion. I don’t see a better role for the medic. As to answer Pandian, I’d like to see a confirmed townie more than a random chance of the medic protecting themselves. Math wise, the mafia has a 33% chance of hitting the medic during the two nights. And I don't count on stuff with less than half a chance of success
|
At the same time though... having the medic protect himself does seem like a great way to be able to safely snipe off the active players.
|
I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him.
I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad.
|
I haven't said that plans are bad, just that I'm pretty sure that you really can't come up with a plan in this setup.
|
On September 21 2010 10:27 SouthRawrea wrote:
I haven't said that plans are bad, just that I'm pretty sure that you really can't come up with a plan in this setup.
What do you think about Bum's Medic idea?
|
On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote:Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now. Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful. Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him. Anyways, I'll still post my thoughts Divinek + Show Spoiler +Firstly I'm looking at Divinek's actions actions in Callers game. (He is anti-town, dunno the full story yet) Did a few accusations, nothing major. Was more of a bandwagoner The main thing is, he doesn't defend himself much. He just tries to laugh things off. He also ignored my accusations in Penalty mafia (He was mafia). Likewise in Penalty mafia he was a bandwagoner. So look for: Laugh accusations off, bandwagons So, typical Divinek? Or even typical townie? The main thing is, it seems that he is jumping to defend himself at the littlest things now, small accusations that are extremely far fetched. back it up On September 19 2010 11:40 meeple wrote:
I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. ^random speculation On September 19 2010 14:38 Divinek wrote:
i have no idea why he's on our team tbh, im assuming it has something to do with the power of greyskull. Divinek immediately jumps on this, and does his laugh it off defense. I'm not sure I would call it "jumping on the occasion." It seems like a perfectly normal post to me. the topic is related to him, why should he not respond? Seriously, its not even a defense. First of all, for it to be one it would have to be both
1. Incriminating to him as mafia
2.Him be mafia.
So accusing him of mafia based on evidence relying on him being mafia is NOT logical in the least bit. I don't know the exact word for that. In addition, I highly doubt how it could be incriminating to him. Also another defense On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote:
In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves. I immediately shot that idea down On September 20 2010 01:59 LSB wrote:
Just FYI, we lynch a team, rather than just one person. And I felt that conversation should have ended right there. To my surprise, Divinek suddenly posts On September 20 2010 05:49 Divinek wrote:
what do you mean lynching one of us will confirm us lol? if you kill one person of a team im pretty sure alignment doesnt flip, if that's even what you're getting at because you don't make it clear, that'd be pretty ridiculous. I've got my eye on you as always pandain!
I can't find it in the rules, but that's how it's been in the past...
Divinek should know that the whole team gets killed. He was lynched day two in the first TMM game. Obviously this idea has been destroyed already, since I pointed out that it wouldn’t work as per the rules, but why does Divinek suddenly try to offer a random explanation? I can only think that he is paranoid. This is the only good point your post brings up:Why does Divinek not remember the rules? But sheep follow, not think, and you can easily attribute this to my incorrect assertiveness that we lynch people. (not calling you sheep Divinek, rather the human race.) Now, you might say that town defend themselves and this doesn’t mean anything. But these are the only posts that Divinek makes. He hasn’t contributed anything at all. How long has the game been going on? [/red[
That also mean that Divinek hasn’t been attempting to bandwagon people yet, but that’s because there has been no real attacking post yet.[red] Citing an entirely speculative reason for that, not logical. "Oh, he's not acting like mafia, but that's because he hasn't gotten the chance!" is not a valid accusation. Divinek 2 + Show Spoiler +Later on Divinek makes this post On September 21 2010 05:38 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:54 Infundibulum wrote:On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me. yeah pandain had me confused into thinking players got lynched instead of teams lol. It's probably his scum jedi mind tricks at work. Bum wasn't drunk that's just his accent coming through in his posts. And SR has always been really good at posting really poorly. I would be all in favour of no lynching day 1, i mean why not use it on the day where we have the least information to go on? We'll still gain something as there will be a nk, or a medic protect to stop it or maybe even a DT check or something. But instead of throwing around wild allegations (which alot of people seem to be doing) i would much rather not kill an innocent today, which is what 95% to happen on day1? and go with a no lynch so ##vote no lynch This seems consistent, he’s defending himself. Also, since Team 2 is the team that’s getting the most votes right now, he can’t bandwagon that, he’ll go for the next best option, no lynch Again, your citing random reasons for his actions when you have no knowledge of such things. SouthRawrea + Show Spoiler +Okay, as town, he is pretty hard to understand. I played with him in PyP, and I just ignored his posts because they took to long to read through, and then I find that he’s making lots of assumptions At the same time though, he always put his two cents in. On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. Translation: It doesn’t matter what we do. This is very unhelpful. He makes a long post just to say nothing at all. On September 20 2010 10:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
I'd like to echo Foolishness's point and say that my take on this game is that it's almost 100% scumhunting. There's a 50% shot at there being a cop and Korynne is unwilling to release any information not included in the OP. (Usually though, medics can't protect themselves) This limits any plans that we may have especially because we don't know the setup and we may not be able to investigate.
Alternatively, Korynne may be setting up a game where we can look for clues with his/her posts to perhaps find the mafia or who's innocent.
Also: EBWOP for my earlier post. I didn't realize that we couldn't NL. I overlooked Korynne's post.
Anyhow, posting is good because we actually have nothing to work with other than posts at this point in time and possibly for the entire game. Again, he doesn’t say anything besides we should play as normal This isn’t putting his two cents in. This is simply just posting random stuff so it looks like he’s active On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr Okay, now he explains his posts, he’s saying that it’s impossible to make a plan. At the same time though, Incogs plan already declared that the existence of a cop is moot, all we need is the intimidation factor. Although I don’t agree with Incog’s plan, SouthRawrea’s post completely ignores this. At the same time, to try to prove that we can’t make a plan? That seems incredibly anti-town. A good plan wins the town games. To try persuade us that we can’t make a plan seems pretty scummy. Okay, so South is a bad townie and got showed up by Incog. And how is that incrimative to him? He was simply reacting to your statement, and basically said "Well you do better!" That's not neccesarily saying " PLANS ARE BAD DURR DURR I LIKE BEER" Bumatlarge (Now seems pro town) + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 04:52 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. If you're certain why aren't you trying hard to convince the rest of us they are scum? I wanted to see what Bum would write. He really hasn’t posted anything. And there’s no way to tell if he’s busy, or if he is lurking. Bum then posts a pretty pro town post On September 21 2010 08:20 bumatlarge wrote:
I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff.
Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet.
Thoughts? I like the idea, basically we get a tree stump, that can vote, and someone is confirmed. That could clear up a lot of confusion. I don’t see a better role for the medic. As to answer Pandian, I’d like to see a confirmed townie more than a random chance of the medic protecting themselves. Math wise, the mafia has a 33% chance of hitting the medic during the two nights. And I don't count on stuff with less than half a chance of success No. This plan is bad. Again, confirmed townies are useless in setups with no pms. In addition, protecting themselves will make themselves an invisible tree stump, that the mafia will have to have the chance of hitting. You later say "well then active players will be shot." Whos to say the medic isn't active? And if we did make a list, then mafia would side step that.
This is your proof, the evidence?
You have no evidence or real accusations on these guys. I outlined my response in red.
|
|
|
On September 21 2010 10:36 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 10:27 SouthRawrea wrote:
I haven't said that plans are bad, just that I'm pretty sure that you really can't come up with a plan in this setup. What do you think about Bum's Medic idea?
Bum's medic idea? Other than the fact that mafia might risk claiming medic, I just don't think it's necessary to have a confirmed unless we are about to lynch him or we're further into the game. It's good for day 2 IMO. All it does on day 1 though is lessen the chances that medic will successfully be able to protect someone because they're supposedly going to RNG.
|
We can talk about med claiming day 2, but for today, it's pointless. Unless we're about to lynch him, that is.
|
Son of a bitch i had a post typed up and pandain literally said almost everything i did.
Though i'm interested that LSB jumps over me so hard so easily . It's like he's never seen me play before. I forgot the rules cause it wasn't clarified when i read over them, and he made it sound like individuals would be killed so i assumed he pm'd her or something. I realised after i had posted that, that i was obviously incorrect referring back to previous games.
I dont see how forgetting rules makes someone mafia lol. Why are stupid things like that even trying to be used as evidence for a case against me.
Also apparently you always have to play 100% the same every game or you're mafia. It's more of if you're playing drastically different from how you play and in an anti town way. Ill admit im not the most PRO town player ever, but that's because i'm lazy.
I gave my input on how we should play this day, and until someone presents me with a good enough reason to play differently, or keeps attacking me with substanceless accusations i dont really need to add much more.
Day 1 plans are meh in this set up, you can't hypothesis what the blues will do all you want, if we have any. But in the end they'll do what they want. It seems like that kind of discussion derails the town away from hunting mafia, the truly only productive thing we can do on day1. Though it is of course hard since we have little to go on. However, that is why people have to throw out accusations like LSB did, so we can get a read on their character and motivations.
Did LSB make that post to try and get a mafia lynched, or to get a townie lynched? I obviously know the answer. lol
|
This is kinda funny I get to see divine in all his real towny glory, now I cant push for him
The medic plan can be used whenever so there is really no rush. I think it should be used if a player gets protected in the night, then medic can claim and be safe the rest of the game, giving us 2 confirmed. We can hold onto it til later. Hopefully we have a medic.
And do we really have to defend against every FoS against us... look at our team and then to the FoS now back to our team. Can you guys just like hold off on the finger pointing based on history for now? I I cant really keep track of this team even when Im on it
|
On September 21 2010 13:00 bumatlarge wrote:This is kinda funny I get to see divine in all his real towny glory, now I cant push for him The medic plan can be used whenever so there is really no rush. I think it should be used if a player gets protected in the night, then medic can claim and be safe the rest of the game, giving us 2 confirmed. We can hold onto it til later. Hopefully we have a medic. And do we really have to defend against every FoS against us... look at our team and then to the FoS now back to our team. Can you guys just like hold off on the finger pointing based on history for now? I I cant really keep track of this team even when Im on it
You forgot to say "this team is now diamonds!"
|
Alright. I'm pretty convinced. The short version: No lynch is bad. This team's posting has been either unproductive or supporting anti-town ideals.
##Vote: Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Current thoughts on blues: If I were a medic, I'd probably cover either myself, team 4, or team 8. Not sure who I'd poke at if I were a DT yet.
|
Pandain confirmed townies are not useless if they can keep themselves alive the rest of the game, it's basically treestump without the being a stump part. But I dont think thee should come out right away, preferably if they manage to block a hit on someone or themselves. That way mafia cannot fakeclaim, and mafia might figure the person they hit is a medic due to likelyhood of med prot'in themselves, then we might as well know.
Ok yeah, definitely medic should claim after a hit, but not before, because then it would hurt the purpose of what I just said. Going to go with LSB/Pyr, because its REAL easy for scum to just say someone is 'pro-town' even if its my ingenious ingenuity formulating the formulations. It is a funky thing to divide a team up into scum/not-scum... almost seems like an easy way to get a neutral accusation wihtout intending it to go anywhere. Though its hypocritical to just focus on LSB... but who cares I made it up so get over it.
In the future, you should lump team's posts together and analyize them together, AND THEN speculate on who says what. That way you won't develop any bias or sneaky 'well hes scummy but hes townie all the way' wifom.
Kinda like incognito's little format thing, and he didnt rally do the focus on a player thing.
*****
Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently
[Vote]Team 1
|
Oh btw if I dont die I promise to make up stories. And they will contain or not contain clues.
|
On September 21 2010 13:39 YellowInk wrote:
Alright. I'm pretty convinced. The short version: No lynch is bad. This team's posting has been either unproductive or supporting anti-town ideals.
##Vote: Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Current thoughts on blues: If I were a medic, I'd probably cover either myself, team 4, or team 8. Not sure who I'd poke at if I were a DT yet.
Are you retarded? Explain this now. How is NL Day 1 bad? Do I need to make a fucking graph?
![[image loading]](http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/6758/day1ya.jpg)
The earlier we use our NL the less of a chance we make a bad lynch. Statistically we become more likely to hit a mafia by the fact there is ONE less townie and information wise we have a lot more to look at.
And lastly, if there is a DT that gives him one more night of information.
How is any of that bad? When you refer to that 4v2 or 3v1 shit, it IS useful, but it means you wasted a lynch earlier that COULD have been put off for lack of information, plus giving you ANOTHER day of info to actually look at when deciding which person to lynch.
|
|
|
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language.
bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here:
Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently
...What?
Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now.
vote: no lynch
|
I know BM, but do you really have anyone you 100% believe to be mafia at the moment? Information adds up and if we think someone might be mafia today, we will most likely be sure they are tomorrow.
Its why I was arguing information. I honestly just don't see much to go off right now. The Pyrr/LSB shit is a little suspicious but I wouldn't mind seeing what happens during the night to make a decision on how to proceed next.
|
You're acting as if that's not what I decided on my own which I indicated through voting for no lynch. I wish that SR and Divinek, to some extent, hadn't come in and changed my perception.
|
On September 20 2010 16:44 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future. Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now. Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch. Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams. Main Points: 1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy. 2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town. 3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now. 4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch LSB's plan was based on coordinating blues - we might not have a single blue this game. We can't really confirm anything because for the few roles we have... we don't even know how they work. LSB had a plan in one game - a plan that was started by Bill Murray and then edited by Pandain and then picked up by LSB. So LSB is suspicious because he hasn't posted a plan yet? I suppose the Medic plan would be an okay idea if it got us talking, but another problem I have is that I don't know who I would vote for other than LSB and I. If the medic can prot themselves, that would be their best option. The deterrence factor could be a good reason for it so we might as well do it. My post wasn't meaningless - you asked me why I made it and I told you. Not only has BM been quieter than usual, so has Ace, who is certainly more known for plans than LSB. He usually doesn't show up and ask for an explanation unless he is subbing in and he usually tries to browbeat the town into doing something when town (same with BM who doesn't mind making crazy plans and FoSing anyone who criticizes them). Also, I don't know BC to usually use this "RVS" tactic - it is usually a Bill Murray move. Any bandwagoning in a game this small is dangerous so if their vote sits tight under bad circumstances I will be onto them.
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town.
This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit.
The erroneous logic is in the "oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush.
Since when have I proposed fixes for broken plans? There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on.
If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies
Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster.
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
At this point, LSB is certainly scum in my book. I'll be voting for him and I suggest everyone else does too. We need this lynch for the information. At this many people are voting no-lynch, which is just terrible for information gathering purposes.
By the way, Team 7 is also mafia. We will lynch them tomorrow after we lynch Team 1 today.
Main Points:
1) LSB's defense is ineffective because superficially addresses his "normal" behavior.
2) LSB's current "abnormal" behavior is just icing on the cake. The real point is the mindset behind this behavior switch.
3) Lynch Team 1 today
|
Why did I ever suggest that Korynne allow a no-lynch...I'm so sad now.
|
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though.
|
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait.
|
On September 21 2010 17:35 Bill Murray wrote:
You're acting as if that's not what I decided on my own which I indicated through voting for no lynch. I wish that SR and Divinek, to some extent, hadn't come in and changed my perception.
I was just saying how I acknowledged what you were saying and I had thought of it.
|
On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though.
We get tons of information besides his flip. I'm saying we need this lynch to force people to act. At this point, the mounds of no-lynch running around isn't forcing the mafia to do anything it doesn't want to do. And you know that.
|
Ok, it's good to clarify, a lot of my problems in the past from mafia have been when I've simply been misunderstood. Let us not slip into idle one lined banter which scum can easily hide amongst.
|
On September 21 2010 17:38 Incognito wrote:
Why did I ever suggest that Korynne allow a no-lynch...I'm so sad now.
You're stupid. xP
Side note, it makes sense for 1 no-lynch I think, balanced out the parity for town's worst case scenario.
|
On September 21 2010 17:48 Korynne wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:38 Incognito wrote:
Why did I ever suggest that Korynne allow a no-lynch...I'm so sad now. You're stupid. xP Side note, it makes sense for 1 no-lynch I think, balanced out the parity for town's worst case scenario.
It makes more sense for infinite no lynches I think. No real logical reason why town shouldn't be able to control its own KP weapon?
|
Incog, I agree with a LOT of what you said, but we only get alignment right now, I don't really see a reason to push off our NL, your evidence looks good and one more day of it surely wouldn't hurt. Its not like this would affect KP atm anyway. Although looking more closely at pyrrhuloxia as well should give us a good idea. The good thing about this set up is having to analyze two people to determine someones alignment gives a more definitive answer, since its harder to just chalk two people acting dumb up to coincidence.
|
On September 21 2010 17:45 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. We get tons of information besides his flip. I'm saying we need this lynch to force people to act. At this point, the mounds of no-lynch running around isn't forcing the mafia to do anything it doesn't want to do. And you know that.
Just wondering what information you think we get? I mean if we go to lynch them right now we can see who opposes the lynch and try to crucify them for it if pyrr/LSB flip red however that can lead us down a bad path, especially if the lynch isn't fully supported. I personally have no problem with the lynch, but I don't really see the incentive to rush it, if anything waiting on the lynch would give us more information then executing it now in my opinion. The other thing I am kind of wary about is how late this is coming, I am not sure if we could give a whole bunch of evidence and convince the entire town to lynch them, the issue is I think some people might not see the information in time which leaves a bad taste, especially if they flip green. I think you are innocent judging by the posting I have seen and I don't wanna see people rallying behind some stupid idea like INCOGNITO PUSHED A LYNCH ON A GREEN, AS OPPOSED TO NO LYNCH and get head the next day for it. It offsets the town a lot.
On September 21 2010 17:46 Bill Murray wrote:
Ok, it's good to clarify, a lot of my problems in the past from mafia have been when I've simply been misunderstood. Let us not slip into idle one lined banter which scum can easily hide amongst.
I agree, I didn't feel like leaving any hostility there because chaos helps the mafia. Remember that game where there was literally like 20 pages of Ace and L just yelling at each other? If I remember right, neither of them ended up being mafia.
|
EBWOP: Can someone tell me how long is left in the day, or can Korynne post when the day ends? I am curious. There can't be more then like 12 hours left.
To avoid an unnecessary triple post, the day should end in around 16 hours, which is 11pm EST.
|
On September 21 2010 17:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Incog, I agree with a LOT of what you said, but we only get alignment right now, I don't really see a reason to push off our NL, your evidence looks good and one more day of it surely wouldn't hurt. Its not like this would affect KP atm anyway. Although looking more closely at pyrrhuloxia as well should give us a good idea. The good thing about this set up is having to analyze two people to determine someones alignment gives a more definitive answer, since its harder to just chalk two people acting dumb up to coincidence.
What other information do you think will come about if we had an extra 72 hours? Team 1 is already under pressure. Any "helpful" analysis on their part must be taken with a grain of salt. Without the pressure of being offed today, mafia have extra time to come up with a strategy. If we give them 72 extra hours to respond, they just pretend to be inactive and stretch out their defense over 72 hours, giving them more room to proofread for blatant mistakes. On the other hand, if we give them only 18 hours to respond, they will have to respond in a shorter amount of time. This builds up the pressure. Its hard for me to see how we gain anything by waiting. The only reason why I could think of waiting is that you aren't convinced by my post and need time to think. Which is valid. But I also think my case is very strong at this point. Pressuring Team 1 to respond right away will give them a sense of urgency which is likely to yield more slipups than giving them more time.
|
Oh BTW if we have a DT I suggest that they rolecheck Team 7.
|
Incog and RoL, please don't edit. I know it's just outside of game stuff, but if you really need to, get someone outside the game to post those, or seriously just quote yourself and double post.
The day ends in 16 hours, I'm apparently crazy.
|
Are we allowed to edit our posts or not? This is getting out of hand.
|
EBWOP: Guys, quit taking advantage of the mod.
|
On September 21 2010 18:25 Bill Murray wrote:
Are we allowed to edit our posts or not? This is getting out of hand.
You there. Quit worrying about trivial rules and focus on the issue at hand. Which is, killing them mafia.
|
actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient.
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them.
I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1
|
Well, I believed I had pegged two scum teams, but I am not so sure now and do not want to mislynch. Also, do not "you there" me, please, that is rude unless you are being funny. Just because you say "killing them mafia" the fact you will slip into a post that is in all practicality a one liner after your huge pro-town appearing post is sort of like an oxy-moron.
I'm not saying you're scum, or that I find you scummy. I'm not even saying that slipping into a more casual style of posting after getting that pro-townness "off your chest" is indicative of something scum would do as you can tell by my terminology when describing my take on what you are doing.
I guess I'm actually listening to what you're telling me to do, though I did not plan to. I am being analytical of you. I have yet to read your huge post, and have a post right in front of it "bookmarked" in my mind. I've got nothing better to do right now, though, so after I make a glass of chocolate milk I believe I will read from it to where the editing fiasco was.
|
chocolate milk is disgusting. Then again it is better than strawberry milk.
|
On September 21 2010 17:45 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. We get tons of information besides his flip. I'm saying we need this lynch to force people to act. At this point, the mounds of no-lynch running around isn't forcing the mafia to do anything it doesn't want to do. And you know that.
The mafia, and let's assume you're mafia here for this argument's sake, would want to make a case on a team it believes it can manipulate townies into mislynching like you're doing. I'm not quite sure if your heart is pure or if you're tipping the scale in your favor as scum. It is definitely ballsy to shift away from no-lynch, though. There are simply too many people who seem to be supporting it or at least somewhat supporting it for it to be a scum-driven-tactic which is why I voted for it. If a lot of people are doing something, it is likely town due to town being prevalent.
You pushing against it in your huge post is either very good town play or very good scum play. The problem is that you haven't really convinced me enough to consider putting me vote up there. I am still more suspicious of team 2, and I feel like we might be able to get rid of both scum teams if team 1 are scum which is not what you believe. Well, you believe we might be able to, but we disagree on the secondary teams. For that reason, where I don't feel like arguing with you on day 2 about who is implicated, and for me not being solid on your case for now, I am keeping my vote on no lynch.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait.
I actually like this post, though. Almost enough to sway me to vote for someone... I should go do some scumhunting of my own after this responsive post.
On September 21 2010 17:50 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:48 Korynne wrote:On September 21 2010 17:38 Incognito wrote:
Why did I ever suggest that Korynne allow a no-lynch...I'm so sad now. You're stupid. xP Side note, it makes sense for 1 no-lynch I think, balanced out the parity for town's worst case scenario. It makes more sense for infinite no lynches I think. No real logical reason why town shouldn't be able to control its own KP weapon?
Agree. I don't like no lynch, though, as I am unsure of how to use it.
@incognito Why are you worried about it at all, though, if you're pushing to lynch a supposedly scummy slot?
On September 21 2010 17:58 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:45 Incognito wrote:On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. We get tons of information besides his flip. I'm saying we need this lynch to force people to act. At this point, the mounds of no-lynch running around isn't forcing the mafia to do anything it doesn't want to do. And you know that. Just wondering what information you think we get? I mean if we go to lynch them right now we can see who opposes the lynch and try to crucify them for it if pyrr/LSB flip red however that can lead us down a bad path, especially if the lynch isn't fully supported. I personally have no problem with the lynch, but I don't really see the incentive to rush it, if anything waiting on the lynch would give us more information then executing it now in my opinion. The other thing I am kind of wary about is how late this is coming, I am not sure if we could give a whole bunch of evidence and convince the entire town to lynch them, the issue is I think some people might not see the information in time which leaves a bad taste, especially if they flip green. I think you are innocent judging by the posting I have seen and I don't wanna see people rallying behind some stupid idea like INCOGNITO PUSHED A LYNCH ON A GREEN, AS OPPOSED TO NO LYNCH and get head the next day for it. It offsets the town a lot. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:46 Bill Murray wrote:
Ok, it's good to clarify, a lot of my problems in the past from mafia have been when I've simply been misunderstood. Let us not slip into idle one lined banter which scum can easily hide amongst. I agree, I didn't feel like leaving any hostility there because chaos helps the mafia. Remember that game where there was literally like 20 pages of Ace and L just yelling at each other? If I remember right, neither of them ended up being mafia.
Ace and L yelling at each other was the highlight of my early mafia career in a few games so you'll have to be a little more specific than that. Them both being town, though, makes it somewhat more specific. I am not quite sure which game you're referencing, and it is not due to me having a bad memory, but moreso me having a selective memory in a good way. I remember the important shit, honestly, not townie vs townie arguments.
I like your speculating on the flip, honestly. You have been playing very well so far from my perspective, RoL, keep the activity up, bro. The one problem I have with this wagon analysis you are proposing, in terms of information, which is definitely a valid point, so I am by no means talking against this, but merely playing the devil's advocate here somewhat, is that the mafia members could easily just bus their own team and have a free ticket to LyLo with a confused town in such a small setup. What a run-on sentence .
Also, RoL, if LSB is mafia, who would you put as the other team?
If you do not think of him as mafia, who is your best overall read on this game as being scum?
|
On September 21 2010 18:57 Ace wrote:
chocolate milk is disgusting. Then again it is better than strawberry milk.
I decided against it, and went with Mountain Dew.
|
Also, RoL, I know you were moreso talking about doing analysis on who was against the lynch vs who voted for the lynch, but that implies that you would give +town points to the people who were on the wagon of scum, when I've seen plenty of people bus their own team.
You can't ever be sure of anything in mafia.
|
On September 21 2010 18:32 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 18:25 Bill Murray wrote:
Are we allowed to edit our posts or not? This is getting out of hand. You there. Quit worrying about trivial rules and focus on the issue at hand. Which is, killing them mafia.
yay someone who can analyze enforced my suspicious about lsb being a fucker going after me.
well since their team functions at a unit ill take a shot at pyrr and see what conlusions i reach
On September 20 2010 08:47 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I think Foolishness pointed out all the reason's why Incognito's plan is bad: especially true are that no one ever seems to follow them and that medics should protect themselves until they get a really good read on someone else.
relaying someone else's opinion so as to not have to take a stance on their own.
On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated.
probably want to kill some one huh, quite early for the old fanning the flames eh.
He then goes on to point a finger at BC cause of his 'rvs' reasoning. Just point the finger that's all.
On September 21 2010 10:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him.
I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad.
and then just more posts like this one. Have to wait and see blah blah, not taking a stance on anything. Seems to line up very well with your read on LSB
##unvote
##vote team 1
|
On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster.
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
At this point, LSB is certainly scum in my book. I'll be voting for him and I suggest everyone else does too. We need this lynch for the information. At this many people are voting no-lynch, which is just terrible for information gathering purposes.
By the way, Team 7 is also mafia. We will lynch them tomorrow after we lynch Team 1 today.
Main Points:
1) LSB's defense is ineffective because superficially addresses his "normal" behavior.
2) LSB's current "abnormal" behavior is just icing on the cake. The real point is the mindset behind this behavior switch.
3) Lynch Team 1 today
I just want to support my partner here. We've talked about it and i personally think it doesn't matter if we no lynch today or not, as long as we do use it, but i'd like to see some red blood day 1.
One thing that strikes me about LSB's accusation toward team 2 is that it feels like he is picking out an 'easy target' (no offense to team 2). However, myself and BM and possibly(?) other people have stated they don't think team 2 is mafia and i stand by my conviction here. Either LSB is misguided, or he was hoping to lead the town to vote on a group of players that tend to appear scummy even when they're town - just look at recent games to see what I mean.
Personally I think the absence of Foolishness, especially after his initial long postings, is something to note. I don't know if it's suspicious or coincidental. Rastaban has also been uncharacteristically quiet, in my opinion.
## vote team 1
|
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2.
|
I'd rather not jump on a bandwagon at this point and have at least one of the two members of Team 1 post as they haven't had a chance yet. There's only been a 2 hour window since the pressure has been put onto them and I'd like to hear what they have to say first.
On September 21 2010 10:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him.
I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad.
In this type of setup, all townies are important because we as town cannot afford to make many mislynches. There were a couple accusations flying around so I felt the need to squash them. Simple.
Also, my opinion on the plan is a couple posts below your post. I think BrownBear is of the same accord so I'm pretty sure I didn't make any logical errors in my reply.
|
Vote: NoLynch
Rereading the thread and catching up on what happened since I went to bed. Just wanted to be sure I don't forget to vote and get mod killed.
|
So I am presented here with a problem.
I still find it more likely that Team 6 is mafia than Team 1, though I agree with what most people have had to say about Team 1. After my last post, it was my intention to go into greater detail about why I believe what I do about Team 6 after a few hours and got some reactions.
However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur. Therefore:
##Unvote Team 6
##Vote Team 1, LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
With respect to RebirthOfLeGenD's amazing rebuttal, here is why no lynch is bad.
+ Show Spoiler +As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang. We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2. The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion. This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.
Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.
The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia. Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.
Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.
Day 1 no lynch is very bad.
|
On September 21 2010 16:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 13:39 YellowInk wrote:
Alright. I'm pretty convinced. The short version: No lynch is bad. This team's posting has been either unproductive or supporting anti-town ideals.
##Vote: Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Current thoughts on blues: If I were a medic, I'd probably cover either myself, team 4, or team 8. Not sure who I'd poke at if I were a DT yet. Are you retarded? Explain this now. How is NL Day 1 bad? Do I need to make a fucking graph? The earlier we use our NL the less of a chance we make a bad lynch. Statistically we become more likely to hit a mafia by the fact there is ONE less townie and information wise we have a lot more to look at. And lastly, if there is a DT that gives him one more night of information. How is any of that bad? When you refer to that 4v2 or 3v1 shit, it IS useful, but it means you wasted a lynch earlier that COULD have been put off for lack of information, plus giving you ANOTHER day of info to actually look at when deciding which person to lynch.
I didn't realize baller was playing
|
A discussion generating question for those who have played with these people, do LSB and Pyrrhuloxia typically suck at defending themselves? The last 14 hours have had votes piling on them and not a peep - you'd think at least one of them would have something to say about it.
|
Eesh. Looks like Penalty Mafia all over again. The last few games I started out placing blame all over the place and I was way off. This game I try to be more careful and be more accurate about how suspicious something is and I am "just pointing the finger" and "not taking a stance on anything." Whatever dudes.
As for my partner, he was wrong to get locked in to team 2 when he thought bumatlarge was acting pro-town. I don't know why that mistake is so suspicious but the world will never make sense to me. Going forward you should all try to avoid this mistake and go after teams that are acting in concerted ways (3,4,5,6,8).
vote no lynch
|
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1
|
On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1
Maybe that's their plan...
|
to put one of their own up for lynch, with only 2 scum? Then without any of the people lynching them looking like super-townie how does this help them?
|
The question arises, do we have a definitive canidate? That is, is there a sufficient enough amount of evidence for a team that will favor them being mafia? Truth is, we can either lynch or no lynch, for the reasons why we should not lynch derive almost entirely from the fear we will mislynch. But sticking to the mindset of such a playstyle(no lynch anytime) will be detrimental to both scumhunting and the town.
Contrary to what a fellow Panda has said, no lynching in my humble opinion would normally be a good option in the typical Day 1 scenario. Day 1 lynches are notoriously off, almost always resulting in town. With a setup such as this, mislynching will cause the next mislynch to result in lylo, and as I've said before can lead to the "word against word" situation which means 50% of certain death. You say "it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents" but we should only scumhunt if we know we are not going to lynch an innocent. Our hunting must be tempered by reason. If, as we might now, we have a viable canidate, we should disregard no lynch and lynch LSB and Pyrr. If not, then no lynching would be the most viable option in my opinion.
On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1
Why? Because of the sudden burst of 5 votes in 3 hours? Aye, it is startling, but keep in mind that one was from the accuser's team, two from your team, and the only two unique ones were YellowInk and Divinek. Break it down such, and it's not so startling.
Carrying on, I was going to vote for LSB and Pyrr. But as I look it over it just seems to me that they don't have much going against them. LSB is accused of being a planner albeit not planning, but reality is he's (sort of) new, its the first day, and he has contributed, whatever the quality. It just seems to me that evidence can be pushed aside as characterization of bad townie, and while I do have grievances with LSB's logic, that does not make him mafia. I'll still have to think about it, but for now I stick with no lynch.
|
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Someone tell me why voting to kill someone today is better than No Lynching.
As far as I've seen nobody's addressed this issue at all. We're all smart players here, I outlined majority of the scenarios in my previous posts.
I know that someone is going to respond to this post with "Well I know for 100% that LSB is mafia". Honestly, you don't, it's day 1. So far, the only convincing thing I see against LSB is that a lot of people seem to think he's mafia. Now I know everyone in this game is at the least a decent, regular mafia player, so I have to take that into consideration. But all I see is a bandwagon. I'm fairly certain any argument someone has said about LSB, I could take that argument and apply to YellowInk or Infundibulum or Ace.
Great job guys, you found a player in this game who's not actively making plans. So have I, actually, cause nobody's really made any sort of plan (unless you count no lynching a plan), and everyone's just focusing on Team 1 and Team 2.
If you really think LSB is mafia, you would vote no lynch, and spend the next ~36 hours convincing the town with solid analysis and not "I'm 100% positive LSB/Pyrry are mafia".
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait.
So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far.
I'm very excited to see you be the fourth.
|
If you guys think it's wise to use our no lynch today then I'm fine with backing off. Unless i'm mistaken, the math works out the same either way as long as we use it, right? @ Foolishness, YellowInk posted an argument of substantial length detailing why he thinks we should save No Lynch for later (it's in a spoiler in his post in case you missed it).
To team 1's credit, Pyrr is not playing the way he usually does when he is mafia - it's mostly LSB that send off alarms for me. Still I think it's weird that LSB goes "we're certain team 2 is mafia" and then Pyrr denies it.
|
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping?
|
that should say "strongest argument against no lynching Day 1" *** sorry
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping?
No, I refuted that argument already. Unless there's a medic save along the way, there's no way we'll end up in a 3v1 or 4v2 scenario if we no lynch today.
|
On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:
]As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang.
You make a logical jump here without proper explanation. Just because we're scumhunting, it doesn't mean we should lynch.
We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2.
Well if all we are doing is scumhunting, we can't expect to make any significant informational gains on any day. Your statement only applies to cop reports.
The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion.
Not on day 1 though so I don't quite see what you're saying here.
This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.
I'm not addressing this as this only regards the viability of blues' actions, not the time at which they take place
Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.
The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia.
Using our NL now leads to the same 2:1 scenario, skips the mylo but has the same amount of total in-game days.
Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.
As you implicitly mentioned in paragraph 1, the only time a blue role is useful is in the end game which I agree with except for the fact that we do not know if there is a DT at all. Mafia could easily claim DT in the 2:1 situation. If the real DT is still alive by then, it becomes a 50/50 vote. (With there being a 50/50 chance of there being a DT, this is a 25% chance of winning.)
Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.
We still end up having the same number of days total with the same number of lynch chances in the case of a medic save.
Day 1 no lynch is very bad.
I did notice that there was something crucial that I missed now that I look over this. In a situation where we NL day 1 and there are no medic saves, we end up having 1 less lynch chance over the entire game.
|
On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping?
I think the general thoughts are that:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow
Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.
I think normally most people would go with the lynching day 1, if not only to get the info... but with such a small game every mislynch is a huge blow.
|
Oops I meant to bold the very last part and finish my train of though. All other scenarios are quite even but in the situation where we get no medic saves and choose to NL on day 1, we miss out on 1 potential lynch even though we survive for an equal amount of days. We have a maximum of 3 lynches in any scenario except no save + no lynch in which we have only 2. (This is of course assuming that our medic isn't a godly one.
|
This should help a little.
Sorry for double post, just made the chart.
|
My head asplode. Forget what I said, it's all nonsense.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow
Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.
Give me a scenario where we use No Lynch today and we end up screwed later. Remember no medic saves.
|
On September 22 2010 05:08 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oops I meant to bold the very last part and finish my train of though. All other scenarios are quite even but in the situation where we get no medic saves and choose to NL on day 1, we miss out on 1 potential lynch even though we survive for an equal amount of days. We have a maximum of 3 lynches in any scenario except no save + no lynch in which we have only 2. (This is of course assuming that our medic isn't a godly one.
Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait...
Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves...
Today:_______________6 v 2
Tommorow____________5 v 2
Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1
Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win
Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases
What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves.
|
On September 22 2010 05:30 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow
Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.
Give me a scenario where we use No Lynch today and we end up screwed later. Remember no medic saves.
Well... technically can't we use a No lynch in a 3 v 1 scenario to prolong the game into a 2 v 1 with a higher chance of catching the last guy...
|
This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate.
Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1.
On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch
If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted.
Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason.
On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth.
Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say.
***
I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information.
|
On September 22 2010 04:33 Foolishness wrote:
Someone tell me why voting to kill someone today is better than No Lynching.
As far as I've seen nobody's addressed this issue at all. We're all smart players here, I outlined majority of the scenarios in my previous posts.
I know that someone is going to respond to this post with "Well I know for 100% that LSB is mafia". Honestly, you don't, it's day 1. So far, the only convincing thing I see against LSB is that a lot of people seem to think he's mafia. Now I know everyone in this game is at the least a decent, regular mafia player, so I have to take that into consideration. But all I see is a bandwagon. I'm fairly certain any argument someone has said about LSB, I could take that argument and apply to YellowInk or Infundibulum or Ace.
Great job guys, you found a player in this game who's not actively making plans. So have I, actually, cause nobody's really made any sort of plan (unless you count no lynching a plan), and everyone's just focusing on Team 1 and Team 2.
If you really think LSB is mafia, you would vote no lynch, and spend the next ~36 hours convincing the town with solid analysis and not "I'm 100% positive LSB/Pyrry are mafia".
Um. Actually, I don't know he's 100% mafia, but you might. You could be his scumbuddy. I don't really think of LSB as a planner, anyways, having played with him in Penalty Mafia. I was one of the few who was voting more on Pyrrhuloxia than LSB.
On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping?
I said this like 4 fucking pages ago
do you not read the thread?
yellowink basically stole that from me, and added "durr it would help if we had a blue too!!"
On September 22 2010 05:03 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping? No, I refuted that argument already. Unless there's a medic save along the way, there's no way we'll end up in a 3v1 or 4v2 scenario if we no lynch today.
Yes, he refuted ME, not yellowink.
Infundibulum, you are acting in line with your red-meta from my perspective.
On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping? I think the general thoughts are that: Pros: - Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow Cons: - We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later - We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment. I think normally most people would go with the lynching day 1, if not only to get the info... but with such a small game every mislynch is a huge blow.
This post is a very good summary of the game so far for me. We need to move on from this shit, though. I am not used to no lynching, so it should be fun
unvote for now and put my
vote on no lynch
On September 22 2010 05:34 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:30 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow
Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.
Give me a scenario where we use No Lynch today and we end up screwed later. Remember no medic saves. Well... technically can't we use a No lynch in a 3 v 1 scenario to prolong the game into a 2 v 1 with a higher chance of catching the last guy...
YET ANOTHER PERSON WHO NEEDS TO LEARN HOW TO READ THE THREAD
WOW GUYS
|
On September 22 2010 04:50 Infundibulum wrote:
If you guys think it's wise to use our no lynch today then I'm fine with backing off. Unless i'm mistaken, the math works out the same either way as long as we use it, right? @ Foolishness, YellowInk posted an argument of substantial length detailing why he thinks we should save No Lynch for later (it's in a spoiler in his post in case you missed it).
To team 1's credit, Pyrr is not playing the way he usually does when he is mafia - it's mostly LSB that send off alarms for me. Still I think it's weird that LSB goes "we're certain team 2 is mafia" and then Pyrr denies it.
Well I agreed with him that Divinek was acting suspiciously but I didn't realize he was on team 2 when we discussed it. And I said he was acting similarly to SR; so that is how LSB got to his inaccurate statement, as far I can tell.
|
I take back my infundibulum red-meta statement for now
that last post i highly agree with
|
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information.
Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote...
About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads.
|
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate.
I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
|
i feel the need to bang my head against a wall
i expected a lot more
|
On September 22 2010 05:51 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information. Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote... About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads.
The thing is, if we ever get to a spot where we need to use the no lynch to avoid a bad situation, we are helped out of that bad situation even if we use it day 1... in a sense.
|
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT
|
|
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT
That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course.
|
RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?
I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information.
On the contrary No Lynch gives us plenty of information. Okay I'll agree that lynching someone would give us a bit more information, but that's the only benefit to lynching. Let me relay a few more points on why we should No Lynch:
1) Delaying the game as long as possible only hurts the mafia. The longer the town has to talk the higher chance mafia will get caught and/or reveal themselves. Mafia want the game to be over asap, they don't want to dilly dally around discussion.
2) No Lynching now gives you more time to build arguments against who you think is mafia for tomorrow's lynch. Everyone knows that day 1 lynch is kinda a crap shoot. Picking out mafia over 48 hours of talking is an incredibly challenge. Add another 48-72 hours though, and the process becomes easier. You seem to be sure that team 1 is mafia. I'm not convinced though (and neither are other people at this point). We No Lynch now you get more time to build your argument, more time to make them slip up, more time to analyze. It will be much easier to make your case tomorrow than convince us to kill team 1 now. (If it makes you feel any better, I'd totally jump on board to lynching team 7). Overall, yes this point kinda refers back to number 1, more time is better for us.
3) No lynching now avoids any kinda 3v1 scenario, barring any medic saves. I've done the calculations in a previous post, so have others.
4) Seeing who votes and/or doesn't vote for No Lynch might help us in the long run to figuring out who's mafia. Right now there's kinda a bandwagon on team 1. Assuming they are not mafia, the mafia teams are going to jump on board rather than no lynching. The vote list for No Lynching if/when it gets passed is just as important and carries just as much information as a vote list to kill someone. Not to mention anyone who has analyzed vote lists knows that you need at least 2 days (but probably 3) to make any conclusions or suspicions.
Not to mention that people who have tried to argue point 3, even though I've proved myself correct, says something about their alignment. People who have continually tried to push for a lynch even though we all know they are smart enough to see my logic says something about their alignment.
|
Vote updated.
Day ends in approximately 3 hours and 30 minutes.
|
@Korynne May I please request that you leave in parentheses or strikeout or whatever all people who have previously voted for someone after the vote is removed in the voting record? It makes it easier to keep track at a glance.
|
Wow okay so after that brain meltdown I just had, I figure I'm just going to find the best group to put my vote on as small as my 1/3 vote is haha. I'm not really going to try and think the whole thing about the days and NLes over anymore because I think everyone's got it.
|
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1.
|
On September 22 2010 06:36 YellowInk wrote:
@Korynne May I please request that you leave in parentheses or strikeout or whatever all people who have previously voted for someone after the vote is removed in the voting record? It makes it easier to keep track at a glance.
For next time, it's a bit late for this (at least you could've asked in the beginning when I first started doing vote counts xD).
|
On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
Are you trying to defend him?
On September 22 2010 06:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?
I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me.
Yeah, we know they're acting weird. You don't need to bring it up yet again. Especially since you're acting weirder than they are. You clearly are reading the thread. On the other hand, it seems to me like BC is in I don't care mode. The last two sentences just don't make sense. Nobody's switched to Team 7, and I didn't present anything against Team 7 yet. So I don't know what you're talking about.
All this 4 v 2 and 3 v 1 talk is useless. The point of no lynch with regard to numbers is: A lynch when there are an even number of live players allows the mafia to make the last (game winning) hit. A lynch when player count is odd lets town have the last say. It doesn't matter how we get to even/odd number of players whether it be medic prot or no lynch. And what counts is not WHEN the no lynch/medic prot happens, its how many of those happen.
1) Delaying the game as long as possible only hurts the mafia. The longer the town has to talk the higher chance mafia will get caught and/or reveal themselves. Mafia want the game to be over asap, they don't want to dilly dally around discussion.
Mmm yeah sure. Blah blah blah having longer time to talk does nothing if you're not talking. So instead of talking no lynch, why don't you do something productive and analyze?
(If it makes you feel any better, I'd totally jump on board to lynching team 7).
Cool. I think they're scum too. [Vote]Team 7
4) Seeing who votes and/or doesn't vote for No Lynch might help us in the long run to figuring out who's mafia. Right now there's kinda a bandwagon on team 1. Assuming they are not mafia, the mafia teams are going to jump on board rather than no lynching. The vote list for No Lynching if/when it gets passed is just as important and carries just as much information as a vote list to kill someone. Not to mention anyone who has analyzed vote lists knows that you need at least 2 days (but probably 3) to make any conclusions or suspicions.
Right now one team is on the Team 1 lynch. Ya think the mafia would try to do a better job of bandwagonning than that if indeed they wanted to off Team 1, huh?
|
On September 22 2010 06:00 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course.
ok, I see what you're saying. the problem is that this the only way no lynching today is right is if we have the "best case" scenario of no medic (or no medic saves). i hate playing under the assumption that everything is going to go swimmingly - i'd rather plan our plays to accommodate for the worst case scenario. no lynching day 1 doesn't do this. The extra time is lost later if there is a medic save.
So I think the choice comes down to: assume best case, get 'extra time' now VS. assume worst case, get 'extra time' later. I think there's pros and cons to each play... on one hand having more time now is good because there are more players. on the other, using the no lynch when it can protect town from a precarious situation can save the game
@ BM sorry, i must have missed that post of yours. gotta give credit where credit is due.
at this point it looks like no lynch is pretty far in the lead anyway :s
|
(Quick post to make sure I don't get modkilled.)
Vote: No Lynch
|
I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit.
|
On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote:
I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit.
*feels selfish*
It was my idea!
Also, medic shouldn't claim. Why would we want to know who is medic? If he's going to be lynched, he can say so. Point 2 stands for both cases as well.
|
On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town.
As for the things I'm supporting
1) No lynch.
2) Bum's medic plan
This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit.
The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan!
Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection.
The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush.
I'll repeat myself:
We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets.
I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of.
Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem.
If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure.
I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used.
Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster.
What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie.
You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions?
What positions are you accusing me of not taking on?
Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one.
Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm>
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 22 2010 07:28 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:00 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course. ok, I see what you're saying. the problem is that this the only way no lynching today is right is if we have the "best case" scenario of no medic (or no medic saves). i hate playing under the assumption that everything is going to go swimmingly - i'd rather plan our plays to accommodate for the worst case scenario. no lynching day 1 doesn't do this. The extra time is lost later if there is a medic save. So I think the choice comes down to: assume best case, get 'extra time' now VS. assume worst case, get 'extra time' later. I think there's pros and cons to each play... on one hand having more time now is good because there are more players. on the other, using the no lynch when it can protect town from a precarious situation can save the game @ BM sorry, i must have missed that post of yours. gotta give credit where credit is due. at this point it looks like no lynch is pretty far in the lead anyway :s
No no no no no
I'm assuming worst case scenario in everything. No medic and/or no medic saves is worst case for town. If there is indeed a medic save along the way, that puts mafia at a huge disadvantage because medic can claim. Forcing mafia to counterclaim at the least. We'll deal with that if it happens. We no lynch now we will never have a precarious situation later. It's better to be in a precarious situation with a medic.
Of course if you are actually mafia, then yes, best case scenario for you is no medic and/or no medic saves. Is that what you meant?
|
On September 22 2010 08:07 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote:
I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit. *feels selfish* It was my idea! Also, medic shouldn't claim. Why would we want to know who is medic? If he's going to be lynched, he can say so. Point 2 stands for both cases as well.
Pandians idea then!
Lets say we decides day2 we're trying to lynch InFun*
InFun then claims that he is medic. What should we do?
We now know that he is either medic or mafia, but should we follow through with the lynch, or not?
Okay, let's break down the statistics
(I'm assuming worst case scenario, all townie lynches)
Claim Medic day 2:
1 nights of hidden protection
We know someone that is town.
Won't get lynched day 2. Forces the mafia to act if they want to claim medic.
Claim Medic while being lynched:
1-2 nights of hidden protection
We don't have anyone confirmed
The moment a mafia gets accused, they will claim medic.
The thing is, all a hidden medic is going to get is one more night of secrecy (during the worst case scenario).
If we tell the medic to claim at the start of day 2. Mafia would be taking a big risk if they claimed. There is a 50% chance that the other medic will counterclaim, and then we find a mafia. Basically we get a confirmed townie
A confirmed townie + less confusion during lynch time in case we hit a mafia > 1 more hidden night.
+ Show Spoiler +*He killed me in Mafia XXX so I'm going to use him in all my examples whenever someone dies/is scum
|
On September 22 2010 08:25 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 07:28 Infundibulum wrote:On September 22 2010 06:00 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course. ok, I see what you're saying. the problem is that this the only way no lynching today is right is if we have the "best case" scenario of no medic (or no medic saves). i hate playing under the assumption that everything is going to go swimmingly - i'd rather plan our plays to accommodate for the worst case scenario. no lynching day 1 doesn't do this. The extra time is lost later if there is a medic save. So I think the choice comes down to: assume best case, get 'extra time' now VS. assume worst case, get 'extra time' later. I think there's pros and cons to each play... on one hand having more time now is good because there are more players. on the other, using the no lynch when it can protect town from a precarious situation can save the game @ BM sorry, i must have missed that post of yours. gotta give credit where credit is due. at this point it looks like no lynch is pretty far in the lead anyway :s No no no no no I'm assuming worst case scenario in everything. No medic and/or no medic saves is worst case for town. If there is indeed a medic save along the way, that puts mafia at a huge disadvantage because medic can claim. Forcing mafia to counterclaim at the least. We'll deal with that if it happens. We no lynch now we will never have a precarious situation later. It's better to be in a precarious situation with a medic. Of course if you are actually mafia, then yes, best case scenario for you is no medic and/or no medic saves. Is that what you meant?
Maybe I misunderstand you?
i thought you were saying:
1. we no lynch now
2. there are no medic saves
3. town then avoids any situation where we would have needed a no lynch but don't have one anymore
Therefore the 'best case' scenario for no lynching day 1 is that there are no medic saves right? Because a medic save screws up the math, and makes 3v1 possible again? I thought that's what you were saying. I mean obviously every and any hit saved by a medic is a good thing, but in terms of lynch/no lynch math it throws a wrench in the works which is why i thought it was dangerous to make a plan to no lynch that's only good if we assume that one particular set of outcomes are going to happen.
this is a really strange Day 1 for me - every other game I've played on TL people have been adamantly against no lynching
|
On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote:
Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait...
Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves...
Today:_______________6 v 2
Tommorow____________5 v 2
Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1
Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win
Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases
What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves.
Agreed! That's why no lynch!
(I swear I said this somewhere earlier)
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted.
Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason.
Anyways, I can see what you said that this is a possible scum maneuvers. But just remember, a lot of the scum maneuvers and town maneuvers are the same. (Ie both try not to get killed).
However, they do have solid reasons for disagreeing. It's based on No lynching. I can understand them, if Pyrr votes for something, and I disagree with him, I'm not just going to go, "Whatever, I'll just follow Pyrr", I'm going to vote differently
|
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
|
Whew.. sorry was out longer than I thought I'd be. I'm trying to meet the deadline atm. I'm assuming it's 10 minutes from now and I'm too bothered to check so. I'm going to vote team 1 for the sole reason that the transition between his pressure on our team to a medic plan that's only viable on day 2 has been bothering me. Also him saying that he was "pretty certain that team 2 is mafia" is unnerving to say the least considering that there was absolutely jack squat to back that up.
##Vote Team 1
|
On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Ya I understand that the mafia would avoid him.
But what if we are lynching someone, and then he suddenly claims that he's a medic?
That's a big problem
Anyways, when you think about it, the medic doesn't have that much nights with his ability (in the worst case senario).
Of course, I could just be a pessimist with all my worst case senario thinking.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
I killed you because your plan was a mafia plan
+ Show Spoiler +On September 08 2010 07:40 LSB wrote:Reason 4) Pro mafia plans Show nested quote +On September 06 2010 02:50 Pandain wrote:
So here's what I say we do:
We make no accusations, whatsover. We let the NSVD work his way through checking everybody and then go with what he says. However, I'm thinking the NSVD should only claim like maybe after finding 2 scum(maybe even after checking everyone? n.n).
Than we lynch. The only problem I can see is that if there is a mafia role involving killing someone. I already PMed Caller and mafia themselves do not have the ability to kill someone. But roles are hidden so they might very well have a role that can kill people at night.
Either way, waiting at least until this day ends will both help stop an unnecessary death and let us wait until we see if the mafia have any really dangerous roles. This is an extremely mafia idea, Pandain wants us just to sit around waiting. This is always really bad relying soley on one person who may or may not be alive/in-existance. Pandain then changes his plan to "lets kill all inactives". Good idea, but most of the time, (ie 99% of the time) inactive are greens that don't feel the motivation to post because their role isn't 'cool'. It's good for the mafia as all the mafia has to do is stay active, and boom, a whole bunch of day kills go off ##Accusation: Pandian
|
On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
i dont know. it's kind of established at this point that a medic should protect himself. so if the mafia make a hit and it gets blocked, they can assume whoever they targeted was the medic. since the mafia obviously knows who they target, i think it makes sense for the medic to claim then.
i'm not sure what happens if a medic protects someone else and blocks a hit though.
just precursory thoughts are that if the medic makes a save, he should probably claim - i get the feeling mafia fakeclaims are potentially very powerful in this game
|
claim medic on Day 2? are you serious?
|
On September 22 2010 09:18 Ace wrote:
claim medic on Day 2? are you serious?
Well, we are doing a no lynch Day 1, so there is no reason to claim Day 1
|
ace who are you addressing?
|
On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1.
No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading.
No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then.
In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches.
Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time:
Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
|
On September 22 2010 09:24 Infundibulum wrote:
ace who are you addressing?
I was fast reading, that was to LSB. Pretty much anyone advocating a medic claim should be looked at suspiciously. Unless the medic protects someone and the person is hit he/she should be quiet. Of course, if the person is hit then BOTH of them should claim. If there is a medic with 2 scum in the game it would be pretty sickening if on Night 1 they did this. If there is a DT they just ignore those 2 players for now and check other people out. Only way for this to fail is if both players are Scum and we can always lynch the non-medic claimer for confirmation on both if things get bad.
Also why would the medic self-protect? That's just ridiculous. Protect whoever you think is most valuable to the survival of the town.
|
On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save NOT gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
|
On September 22 2010 09:37 Ace wrote:I was fast reading, that was to LSB. Pretty much anyone advocating a medic claim should be looked at suspiciously. Unless the medic protects someone and the person is hit he/she should be quiet. Of course, if the person is hit then BOTH of them should claim. If there is a medic with 2 scum in the game it would be pretty sickening if on Night 1 they did this. If there is a DT they just ignore those 2 players for now and check other people out. Only way for this to fail is if both players are Scum and we can always lynch the non-medic claimer for confirmation on both if things get bad. Also why would the medic self-protect? That's just ridiculous. Protect whoever you think is most valuable to the survival of the town.
I've explained this before. You see, normally medics should do just that, as that is the best indicator of a townie(who you want to protect.) That is the goal of the medic, to stave off hits off townies and weaken the mafias power.
Now, let's say he protects the "valuable" contributors. There's a 2/8 chance that that person is red. Therefore, the medic would be useless. However, by protecting himself he knows he's protecting a townie, and mafia is unaware of who is medic, so they have to shoot into the dark, knowing one of them is a medic.
Basically, by allowing medic to protect himself we get a guaranteed townie to protect.
|
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables.
|
On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables.
Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.)
Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds.
And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help.
|
Night 1
Everyone quieted down as the timer counted down its last seconds. The timer sounded, just like an alarm clock, giving you a pang of homesickness. You remember the warmth of your bed as you shiver on the cold floor.
The voice came on again from under the metal apparatus.
Well well, looks like you children aren't ready to get your hands dirty yet. Very well, if that's what you want. Tomorrow I won't be so forgiving if this happens again. Return to your rooms and close the doors behind you. I will see you bright and early tomorrow morning.
You get up slowly, but you don't fall this time as you are a bit more used to being attached to your partner. You see the group of three fall over on the other side of the room and cursing silently to themselves. Somehow you don't have it in you to laugh.
You and your partner walk silently back to your room. There's a blanket barely large enough for one in the corner and a stained pillow with some of its stuffing poking out. Since you are wearing a long sleeve shirt and your partner has a t-shirt on, you decide on the pillow and leave the blanket for your partner.
You feel a wave of exhaustion wash over you as you lie down. You swear you heard a sound whispering next to your ear.
Sleep well darling, tonight may just be your last.
|
*Pandain Whispering in Aces Ear*
Kill....
Kill....
Kill....
|
|
|
On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help.
Classic Monty Hall problem:
If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%.
If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie)
So what do you want to do?
|
On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do?
At first I was scratching my head but realized that the scum will always hit a townie(or blue.) So that's 100%. So the chances of mafia killing a townie is 5/8, (instead of normal 5/6 since medic has an addition 2 he could protect which are mafia). By having him protect himself, mafia only have a 1/6 chance of hitting town instead of 3/8
|
On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do?
Uh, what does your number mean? I got this
Chance of Medic Save
Medic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number)
Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5%
|
On September 22 2010 10:13 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this Chance of Medic SaveMedic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5%
plus add the fact that the 2 mafia aren't going to be hit, which raises the 12.5% to (I think) 3/8.
|
Okay.
If medic self protects, Mafia has a 1/6 chance of hitting the medic
If Medic randomly selects, the Medic has a 1/8 chance of selecting the mafia target.
If Medic randomly selects, but knows who the mafia is because he is super good at analysis. The Medic has a 1/6 chance of selecting the mafia target.
Of course. If you weight the numbers, if Medic protects someone else, and saves them, that's two people confirmed. So a weighted percent of 25%, better I guess, but it seems like a double or nothing
|
On September 22 2010 10:16 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:13 LSB wrote:On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this Chance of Medic SaveMedic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5% plus add the fact that the 2 mafia aren't going to be hit, which raises the 12.5% to (I think) 3/8.
The medic doesn't know who the mafia isn't going to hit. The 1/8th accounts for if the Medic accidentally protects the mafia
|
EBWOP, wait no hold on.
Math is hard! =D
Chances that medic will protect town(if he doesn't select himself) 5/8.
5/8 times 1/6(the chance mafia will hit a specific person). =1/8
chances if he protects himself
100% times 1/6
=1/6
LSB's right =D
|
Uh...
Chances that medic will protect town(if he doesn't select himself) 5/8.
5/8 times 1/6(the chance mafia will hit a specific person). =1/8
5/8*1/6 =/= 1/8
5/8*1/6 = 5/48
Chance that the medic will protect town if he does random himself
6/8*1/6=1/8
Close enough!
+ Show Spoiler +
|
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
|
On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote:
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
Umm...
That doesn't really make sense.
Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group
The mafia places a kill one of the hats.
The Medic has to guess where the kill is.
The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill.
Now, if the medic isn't picking himself.
There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic
There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person.
So 5/42
|
On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote:
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
Alright so 10.71% is the chance that a medic will protect a townie who gets hit if medic does NOT self protect.
What I do is equivelent, as you first figure out the chance medic will protect someone who gets hit, and then add in the fact that 2/8 won't get hit. So basically just the chance of protecting a player, who gets hit, and happens to be town.
The chance he will succede if he does protect a town is greater since he will certainly protect a town. So...
100%(chance medic will protect a townie) *1/6(chance mafia will select them) =1/6.
1/6=0.166666667=~16 2/3%.
So there's an increase of about 6 percent. But now....
On September 22 2010 10:17 LSB wrote:
Of course. If you weight the numbers, if Medic protects someone else, and saves them, that's two people confirmed
Hmmm.... that's a good point, one whose benefit is not merely a percentage. Which arises the question, is the chance medic will protect someone else who gets hit(thus confirming two people) enough to outweigh the percentage increase in a medic save?
If medic self protects, theres a 6% higher chance he will succeede in taking the hit, but that will negate the chance that we will confirm two people(at least one with the medic still remaining hidden.). That is, unlesss mafia do a super sneaky move and don't hit to try to "confirm" a team(Are they allowed to not use their kp in this setup?).
So, should we do it and take the risk? Thoughts?
I can expand on this later once Korynne tells whether mafia can withhold their KP for a night.
|
On September 22 2010 10:37 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote:
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit. Umm... That doesn't really make sense. Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group The mafia places a kill one of the hats. The Medic has to guess where the kill is. The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill. Now, if the medic isn't picking himself. There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person. So 5/42
I just told you I'm not calculating the medic strictly picking a target. I'm also adding in the 3/4 for the Mafia hitting the target to change it to the medic actually stopping a hit. Two different things here.
|
Um, no
What I do is equivelent, as you first figure out the chance medic will protect someone who gets hit, and then add in the fact that 2/8 won't get hit.
The medic will have a 5/42 chance of the medic protecting someone who will get hit.
What do you mean by add in that 2/8 won't be hit? That's pointless. It's not like the mafia is going to hit themselves
|
Okay, lets just stop arguing combinatorics.
Medic Protecting self:
Pro: higher chance of success
Medic Protecting other
Pro: could confirm two people.
Medic, pick what you want. Take a larger or smaller risk?
|
All this math assumes both the medic and the mafia pick randomly, which you know they won't do.
If the medic is smart he'll read the thread and make his own judgement based off of that.
|
On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check).
What if we don't have a cop? Well the medic can let us know (or keep that to himself if he thinks it would help mafia to know). Medic claiming, as you said, "is just a useless tidbit," it won't help mafia that much because the medic can just bluff and decide to say he will prot himself while protting someone else or say he will prot someone else and prot himself, etc.
|
On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check). What if we don't have a cop? Well the medic can let us know (or keep that to himself if he thinks it would help mafia to know). Medic claiming, as you said, "is just a useless tidbit," it won't help mafia that much because the medic can just bluff and decide to say he will prot himself while protting someone else or say he will prot someone else and prot himself, etc.
Now of course mafia could fake claim medic or cop but the DT will never be at risk of claiming to a fake medic and can 100% check any tomfoolery. Maybe we don't have a DT, but any fake claim will give us a short list with at least half the reds on it. This is a small game so sorting out a fake claim could be troublesome but at least it will mean a lot of juicy discussion and if we are good we should be able to sort through it and use our judgment to find the faker and lynch them.
|
On September 22 2010 10:53 LSB wrote:
Okay, lets just stop arguing combinatorics.
Medic Protecting self:
Pro: higher chance of success
Medic Protecting other
Pro: could confirm two people.
Medic, pick what you want. Take a larger or smaller risk?
Hmm... could also depend on how big of a profile the medic is. IE, if the medic is Team 2 maybe they are unlikely to get hit day 1 due to suspicion on them and less "prestige" so they will be safer protting someone perhaps more likely to get hit. Of course, the mafia may go after people unlikely to be protted just to get their hits through - I've certainly seen both strategies employed but here at TL, hitting the most prestigious (I won't say best) seems to occur more often at about a 3:1 ratio.
|
I don't see anything in the rules barring mafia from hitting themselves. Highly unlikely but it does make protting someone else very very slightly less attractive since we don't know for sure they are innocent.
|
Power went out, and we just got it back on so sorry for the late response guys. As for the medics action I don't think the numbers are so important as who is the medic. Every team has players who are have experience, and I think it is important to remember that they have will have a higher than average chance of picking off blues. if you are medic it is more important to try and out guess the mafia than to just play by the numbers. The mafia should win a straight up numbers game, it is the analysis that gives the town the edge.
|
On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check).
this doesn't work, no PMs between teams.
|
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan!
Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection.
Sorry, but "my plan" isn't easily exploitable as mafia. Yeah, the people not on the DT/Medic list will be considered "safe" from mafia POV, but I'd rather lose someone useless than someone useful. You're also missing the point. You're crying because you want me to address my "plan". Let me quote you again,
There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on.
Remember saying that? Thought so. Why is it that all of a sudden you want to refocus on my plan? Not going to fall for that one, buddy.
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem.
Lololol this is hillarious. I'm distracting others by accusing you of being mafia? Lololol. Let's get this straight. Mafia is about finding and killing scum. I'm doing nothing wrong by trying to get you lynched. You, on the other hand, want to switch my focus from lynching scum to addressing "my" flawed "plan". You seem to be missing the point that the "plan" was just to get conversations going. Originally you wanted to "junk" the plan and move on, but now you want to go back to talking about the plan because you're now on the hot seat?
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used.
You supported that after I voted for you and accused you. So your "support" of the no lynch isn't all too pro town when examined in context.
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie.
I am not twisting your words. I never admitted that I'm twisting your words. The fact is, you don't find mafia by reading everything at face value. Mafia want to run around wearing a mask that says "I'm a townie!" on it. You're never going to get anywhere by saying, "if it looks like a townie, it is a townie!" That's a recipe for disaster.
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions?
What positions are you accusing me of not taking on?
Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one.
Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm>
You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it.
Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better.
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory.
No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point.
If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you.
|
On September 22 2010 13:23 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check). this doesn't work, no PMs between teams.
oh yeah sorry
|
this is all assuming we even have a fucking medic
also, kill speculation is idiotic
the medic should obviously self protect so the chance of him protecting town is 100%. He could be like "oh, they'll kill ace and bill murray", or "oh, foolishness ALWAYS dies night 1", but how the fuck do they know we're not mafia, and how the fuck do we even know we have a medic?
I know it's night time, but we need to worry about who we are lynching tomorrow
this setup, though open, is unknown for now. We will learn more about it when a detective can check scum, a medic can make a save, or when we have a solid lynch. Lets work on the latter through some scumhunting.
You all know I will be scumhunting as soon as I am certain I'm not dying tonight.
|
pandain, i know you're online, please post something
|
On September 22 2010 20:17 Bill Murray wrote:
pandain, i know you're online, please post something
Why? Do you require feedback on something?
I'm at school but thanks to the leniency of teachers I'm able to be on the computer alot. But don't expect me to be super active during 8-3 EST or so.
|
pffff, I'm in class and still posting. Ofc, college is different like that
|
I was just seeing if your would post at all
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia.
|
On September 22 2010 21:24 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 20:17 Bill Murray wrote:
pandain, i know you're online, please post something Why? Do you require feedback on something? I'm at school but thanks to the leniency of teachers I'm able to be on the computer alot. But don't expect me to be super active during 8-3 EST or so.
Did Korynne ever confirm whether or not mafia have to make a kill each night? I just PM'd her the same question, then noticed you mentioned it in the thread.
I'm also asking whether or not people are notified if they are saved by a medic. If they aren't notified by the host then it becomes a lot harder (impossible?) to confirm someone via protection.
I kinda want to move past this topic but feel it would be good to tie up those 2 loose ends.
|
Response to Incogs post
Plans + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 14:47 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan!
Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Sorry, but "my plan" isn't easily exploitable as mafia. Yeah, the people not on the DT/Medic list will be considered "safe" from mafia POV, but I'd rather lose someone useless than someone useful. You're also missing the point. You're crying because you want me to address my "plan". Let me quote you again, Remember saying that? Thought so. Why is it that all of a sudden you want to refocus on my plan? Not going to fall for that one, buddy. You are falsly saying that I don't understand your plan, but in reality, you don't understand my problem with your plan. My problem with your plan is that the mafia can hide easily in it. What’s your response? 1) Start accusing me for not helping your plan 2) Start accusing me for not seeing why your plan is so “Pro town” 3) Make up a fake argument, say it's mine, and then claim that 'my' argument sucks 4) When I address 2+3, you start accusing me for talking about plans This is just getting silly and out of hand
My Mentality:
+ Show Spoiler + Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions?
What positions are you accusing me of not taking on?
Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one.
Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it. So I should have tried to get BM lynched? Sorry, I don't push dumb things. Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better. Frankly you are saying that I should bandwagon and accuse random people. I only accuse someone when I am absolutely sure. I was formulating an accusation, but people wanted it too early. As you can see, I ended up junking my accusations due to Bum's posts Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point. If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you. Yeah, and once I start doing straight up analysis, your going to accuse me of taking your bait and being scum. Your going to call this your 'trap'. Good thing I put in this paragraph. Sure I’ll post analysis once I figure out something. But it’s not going to be because I’m trying to appease you. It’s because I’m going to try to take down the mafia.
|
On September 23 2010 09:11 Foolishness wrote:
Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia.
Ingerence, ingannations, invictive, and imprevious are not words. However, invective and impervious are words.
Insouciance is a noun used as an adjective. You want insouciant.
The last sentence seems to be missing a possessive.
|
On September 23 2010 10:19 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 09:11 Foolishness wrote:
Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia. Ingerence, ingannations, invictive, and imprevious are not words. However, invective and impervious are words. Insouciance is a noun used as an adjective. You want insouciant. The last sentence seems to be missing a possessive.
Aside from these trifling irregularities that Qatol was rude enough to point out (hmph!), I found this post quite hilarious and also learned a lot! Nicely done, Foolishness.
|
On September 23 2010 09:51 LSB wrote:Response to Incogs post My Mentality: + Show Spoiler + Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions?
What positions are you accusing me of not taking on?
Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not feel like I should. Because I think there're towngoing to make a plan unless I think of one.
Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't
Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it. So I should have tried to get BM lynched? Sorry, I don't push dumb things. He means that you're not really saying anything meaningful in your post. To be pro-town, you have to give reasons for why you say that it's not a real accusation. Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better. Frankly you are saying that I should bandwagon and accuse random people. I only accuse someone when I am absolutely sure. I was formulating an accusation, but people wanted it too early. As you can see, I ended up junking my accusations due to Bum's posts To play mafia, you have to apply pressure on to people in order to get reactions especially when the game relies heavily on scumhunting. This game is a prime example in which pressuring is good for info. Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point. If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you. Yeah, and once I start doing straight up analysis, your going to accuse me of taking your bait and being scum. Your going to call this your 'trap'. Good thing I put in this paragraph. Regardless of whether you do it now or not, you weren't doing it before. This is just an excuse to be lazy and not do analysis from this point forward. The real question is, why weren't you doing analysis before this? (BTW analysis isn't the only way to contribute. You can have well-formulated rebuttals, plans etc) Sure I’ll post analysis once I figure out something. But it’s not going to be because I’m trying to appease you. It’s because I’m going to try to take down the mafia. You can never actually figure something out in mafia based on someone's behaviour. You can have a theory at best.
This was a poor attempt at a defense or just defense of poor play.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Needless to say, editing that post proved to be very tedious so I kinda just skipped the whole process...
|
EBWOP: Open up the spoiler and read red text to see my comments haha.. the post looks kinda misleading.
|
Day 2 Everyone settled down to sleep.
After a while, a few people were prodded awake.
Wake up darlings, they may have been too nice to kill someone in the day, but I know you won't disappoint me.
They gathered in the hallway, whispered with each other a bit, and pointed towards a door.
Ah... excellent choice darlings. Please, enjoy the rest of your night.
You awake to find yourself coughing uncontrollably. The room seems to be filling with smoke, you can't be sure, it's pitch black.
You and your partner stumble around and get to the door, but it will not budge.
"I think this is it for us... Bill." Ace coughed.
"It was nice working with you, partner." Bill Murray coughed back.
You wake up to the sound of a distant alarm, there's a strange smell in the air. You prod your partner awake, and you stumble over to the room.
Miss me darlings? Or perhaps, missing someone else?
Everyone looked around, and realized there was only seven pairs of them. Someone pointed out a nylon string on the floor, and they all followed it out in the hallway. It led to an open door, the smell here was stronger.
Everyone walked in, in the middle of the floor, was the corpse of Bill Murray and Ace, huddled together. They almost looked serene.
Now now, we don't have all day. Please come back in here so I don't have to smoke up this whole wing.
+ Show Spoiler +Bill Murray and Ace the Townies are dead.
|
|
|
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town.
|
lmao oh come on you have GOT to be kidding me lol
On September 23 2010 10:49 Bill Murray wrote:
x_x
expected
This was clearly your fault ^_^
|
On September 23 2010 10:19 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 09:11 Foolishness wrote:
Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia. Ingerence, ingannations, invictive, and imprevious are not words. However, invective and impervious are words. Insouciance is a noun used as an adjective. You want insouciant. The last sentence seems to be missing a possessive.
"Ingérence" is French for "interference."
"Ingannations" are deceptions.
"Invicitive" means "undefeatable" which isn't a word according to irrelevant people who fancy themselves hegemons. It is, without a doubt, the title of a fantastically awful movie.
|
On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town.
Doesn't seem like an odd choice for me because Ace is one of the best players and Bill Murray was pretty cogent so far this game.
|
On September 23 2010 11:29 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 10:19 Qatol wrote:On September 23 2010 09:11 Foolishness wrote:
Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia. Ingerence, ingannations, invictive, and imprevious are not words. However, invective and impervious are words. Insouciance is a noun used as an adjective. You want insouciant. The last sentence seems to be missing a possessive. "Ingérence" is French for "interference." "Ingannations" are deceptions. "Invicitive" means "undefeatable" which isn't a word according to irrelevant people who fancy themselves hegemons. It is, without a doubt, the title of a fantastically awful movie.
I understand the French, but dictionary.com does not like your other words!
|
On September 22 2010 07:24 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. Are you trying to defend him? Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?
I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me. Yeah, we know they're acting weird. You don't need to bring it up yet again. Especially since you're acting weirder than they are. You clearly are reading the thread. On the other hand, it seems to me like BC is in I don't care mode. The last two sentences just don't make sense. Nobody's switched to Team 7, and I didn't present anything against Team 7 yet. So I don't know what you're talking about.
I was trying to explain what I thought he was trying to say, which didn't seem as suspicious to me as it did to you, so yeah I suppose it is a defense.
I misread the vote count. It showed that meeple and yellowink were voting for bc/rol, when I was reading it the other way around (bc/rol voting for meeple/yellowink).
|
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6
|
On September 23 2010 09:35 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 21:24 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 20:17 Bill Murray wrote:
pandain, i know you're online, please post something Why? Do you require feedback on something? I'm at school but thanks to the leniency of teachers I'm able to be on the computer alot. But don't expect me to be super active during 8-3 EST or so. Did Korynne ever confirm whether or not mafia have to make a kill each night? I just PM'd her the same question, then noticed you mentioned it in the thread. I'm also asking whether or not people are notified if they are saved by a medic. If they aren't notified by the host then it becomes a lot harder (impossible?) to confirm someone via protection. I kinda want to move past this topic but feel it would be good to tie up those 2 loose ends.
1. mafia must make a hit each night
2. there is NOT pm notification if a medic makes a save.
|
Well, mildly predictable. I was half-expecting team incog, to be honest, but this is also a solid hit by mafia.
(im assuming they were vanilla town)
So where to today?
|
On September 23 2010 09:11 Foolishness wrote:
Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia.
I'm still waiting on content from you. Real content that is. Unless your contribution is that you like to play word games and take shots at people from the shadows while not really caring about actively convincing everyone that I'm mafia. I'm not at all opposed to seeing what you have to say about me being mafia. So by all means, bring on the accusations. Once I present my case against Team 7 we can all decide which seems more plausible. Kapiche?
On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town.
Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you.
Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone.
Killing Ace/BM is convenient if Team 1 and Team 7 are mafia. Mafia killing Ace/BM is equal to killing a less vocal and aggressive version of me/Infundibulum. It eliminates the only Team who agreed with me that Team 1 and 7 are scum right now. Which means I lose a supporter and need to work even harder to try to accomplish my goals. I think everyone would agree that I would be more likely to receive a medic prot than Ace. I'm guessing mafia took this into consideration and decided it was easier and safer to effectively cripple my steamrolling machine by sniping the quieter supporter. Now I have to find yet another vote to help me get them lynched. Real convenient, huh?
Team 7 is mafia. Analysis coming up in a few.
|
A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk:
On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia.
[Vote]Team 7
Main Point:
1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him.
2) Team 1 is mafia
3) Team 7 is mafia
+ Show Spoiler +*Note* This is supplementary information should you not be convinced by my unspoilered argument. This section is spoilered merely so that it does not distract people from my main point which is unspoilered above. PyrrOn September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6 The only reason why LSB isn't passive is because he's popping up to defend himself. BrownBear has generated more real content than LSB. The most notable thing he said was: On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 20 2010 14:15 BrownBear wrote:On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit. That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). On a related note, you claim here that SR is always a cryptic useless babblemouth. This is not a true statement. Look at TL Mafia XXX. SR is pretty concrete and understandable here, even if he posts a lot of one liners. He actively gives input, questions, theorizes, and states his opinion. That game he was townie. So either you're intentionally inaccurately portraying someone, like BrownBear said, or its another honest mistake. In any case, BrownBear bringing this point up is generating content. And BC does have his I don't care moments. I've seen plenty of games where BC just messed around or didn't take the game seriously. Most of them are in the middle of TL mafia history after he gets vanilla townie a bunch of times in a row. For an example, check out Mafia XV. Or the beginning of TL Mafia XXX where he was smurfing as Vayesh Moru. As for RoL, you either have a bad memory, or you don't care about having a good one. Check out TL Mafia XV. RoL is plenty active in that game. The vast number of gross misrepresentations that I have pointed out here is astonishing. Memory is a weird thing, so I can't really say much about this except that its bad play. Your play this game doesn't match anything from your past two games which have samples of both mafia and town play. I would buy the idea that you are trying to change up your style. The thing is, this game, the style you have chosen to switch to is not just bad play, its pro-mafia play. Memory is a weird thing, so I won't say you're mafia because of your horrid misinterpretations of others' posts, but that fact cannot be ignored. Its hard to believe that all the incorrect statements that I've outlined here are just coincidence. Lets take a look at Pyrr's post history this game. Bashing my plan Stating you have no suspicions Making non-committal prod statements against Ace/BM Misrepresentative statement about SR Defense of LSB Refuting the statement "SR is appealing to Pyrr's authority" More wishy-washy statements about SR Says we should be investigating people who are not Team 1,2,7 who were the most suspicious people at that point. A post that is illogical for a townie to make. A NL post A poke on Team 6 Chatter on medics/DT Pyrr is posting like LSB. An overall characteristic of Pyrr's posts is that he either posts neutral statements, defends against an accusation, or joins in on non-essential (non-scum hunting) conversation. No pro-town direction at all. Pokes out Team 6 for some shoddy reasoning. Mysteriously avoids getting suspicious of Team 7 and actually defends Team 7 directly. In this post, he starts crying and saying that he's trying to switch from the blame game (which failed him miserably last game), to a more cautious playstyle. Then he claims that he is unfairly perceived as scummy because he "points the finger" too much or "doesn't take a stance on anything". The finger pointing is only bad when based on bad logic and when it is actively pursued in a way that floods the thread so much that other people's voices are not heard. Which is what Pyrr did in TL Mafia XXX. So yes, the suspicion for these behaviors is warranted. Pyrr tries to get pity points by using two extreme examples of playstyle in an attempt to make me look like a triggerhappy. This is not the case. Pyrr is thinking in absolutes. There is more than a "finger pointing" style and a "neutral/no-stance" style. Namely, thoughtful analysis followed by a confident support of the conclusions of your analysis. (Read Ver's TL Mafia XXX review/guide to see how Pyrr's "analysis" in that game really wasn't very good). Another pro-town activity would be discussions of suspicions, but NOT to the point of spamming the thread. Its not that pointing out a lot of suspicions is bad. You have to rely on the quality of the suspicions and the quality of the discussion that follows. Pyrr's "finger pointing" is more than finger pointing. Its aggressive finger pointing with shoddy evidence. In this post, Pyrr is asking for pity and is using appeal to emotion and faulty logic to shrug off accusations on the basis that I'm trigger happy. Main Points: 1. Pyrr's complaint that I'm being unreasonable by attacking his vicious finger pointing and his "neutral" stance + uselessness is absolutist and absurd. 2. Pyrr's posts spread doubt and do not draw informative conclusions. 3. Pyrr's posts are useless, don't show direction, and fit the motive of a mafia wanting to spread doubt while staying low profile and preventing town from going in the right direction. 4. While LSB's posts are scummy, Pyrr's posts are too. There is little doubt that Team 1 is mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +I was going to post some motive analysis on Team 7, but got side tracked with Pyrr and his unnatural defense of YellowInk. I now feel that a complete analysis of Team 7 is unnecessary at this point, but I will post that tomorrow IF AND ONLY IF people don't buy my above argument. I'm too tired to post it now.
|
totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
|
On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6
Nah it has nothing to do with being passive. He comes out with a strong accusation against my team and then fails to followup or explain himself properly.
I'm having quite a dilemna right now because I know very well that it's obviously considered anti-town behaviour to not post much at all and so I'm looking to the inactive teams. The problem I have is that I can't shake the feeling that the mafia may be an active team as well. I've got to go for now but I'm going to look over Team 6 when I get back from school.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 09:11 Foolishness wrote:
Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia. I'm still waiting on content from you. Real content that is. Unless your contribution is that you like to play word games and take shots at people from the shadows while not really caring about actively convincing everyone that I'm mafia. I'm not at all opposed to seeing what you have to say about me being mafia. So by all means, bring on the accusations. Once I present my case against Team 7 we can all decide which seems more plausible. Kapiche?
Nah, I already indirectly told you I wanted to kill team 7 as well. Even if I think you're mafia I'd much rather kill team 7 right now. I don't agree at the moment that team 1 is suspicious, but we can agree to disagree at this point at worry about each other later. I'll be posting analysis later, but I think meeple is way out of character than his normal town behavior.
|
On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote:A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. [Vote]Team 7Main Point: 1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him. 2) Team 1 is mafia3) Team 7 is mafia+ Show Spoiler +*Note* This is supplementary information should you not be convinced by my unspoilered argument. This section is spoilered merely so that it does not distract people from my main point which is unspoilered above. PyrrOn September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6 The only reason why LSB isn't passive is because he's popping up to defend himself. BrownBear has generated more real content than LSB. The most notable thing he said was: On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 20 2010 14:15 BrownBear wrote:On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit. That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). On a related note, you claim here that SR is always a cryptic useless babblemouth. This is not a true statement. Look at TL Mafia XXX. SR is pretty concrete and understandable here, even if he posts a lot of one liners. He actively gives input, questions, theorizes, and states his opinion. That game he was townie. So either you're intentionally inaccurately portraying someone, like BrownBear said, or its another honest mistake. In any case, BrownBear bringing this point up is generating content. And BC does have his I don't care moments. I've seen plenty of games where BC just messed around or didn't take the game seriously. Most of them are in the middle of TL mafia history after he gets vanilla townie a bunch of times in a row. For an example, check out Mafia XV. Or the beginning of TL Mafia XXX where he was smurfing as Vayesh Moru. As for RoL, you either have a bad memory, or you don't care about having a good one. Check out TL Mafia XV. RoL is plenty active in that game. The vast number of gross misrepresentations that I have pointed out here is astonishing. Memory is a weird thing, so I can't really say much about this except that its bad play. Your play this game doesn't match anything from your past two games which have samples of both mafia and town play. I would buy the idea that you are trying to change up your style. The thing is, this game, the style you have chosen to switch to is not just bad play, its pro-mafia play. Memory is a weird thing, so I won't say you're mafia because of your horrid misinterpretations of others' posts, but that fact cannot be ignored. Its hard to believe that all the incorrect statements that I've outlined here are just coincidence. Lets take a look at Pyrr's post history this game. Bashing my plan Stating you have no suspicions Making non-committal prod statements against Ace/BM Misrepresentative statement about SR Defense of LSB Refuting the statement "SR is appealing to Pyrr's authority" More wishy-washy statements about SR Says we should be investigating people who are not Team 1,2,7 who were the most suspicious people at that point. A post that is illogical for a townie to make. A NL post A poke on Team 6 Chatter on medics/DT Pyrr is posting like LSB. An overall characteristic of Pyrr's posts is that he either posts neutral statements, defends against an accusation, or joins in on non-essential (non-scum hunting) conversation. No pro-town direction at all. Pokes out Team 6 for some shoddy reasoning. Mysteriously avoids getting suspicious of Team 7 and actually defends Team 7 directly. In this post, he starts crying and saying that he's trying to switch from the blame game (which failed him miserably last game), to a more cautious playstyle. Then he claims that he is unfairly perceived as scummy because he "points the finger" too much or "doesn't take a stance on anything". The finger pointing is only bad when based on bad logic and when it is actively pursued in a way that floods the thread so much that other people's voices are not heard. Which is what Pyrr did in TL Mafia XXX. So yes, the suspicion for these behaviors is warranted. Pyrr tries to get pity points by using two extreme examples of playstyle in an attempt to make me look like a triggerhappy. This is not the case. Pyrr is thinking in absolutes. There is more than a "finger pointing" style and a "neutral/no-stance" style. Namely, thoughtful analysis followed by a confident support of the conclusions of your analysis. (Read Ver's TL Mafia XXX review/guide to see how Pyrr's "analysis" in that game really wasn't very good). Another pro-town activity would be discussions of suspicions, but NOT to the point of spamming the thread. Its not that pointing out a lot of suspicions is bad. You have to rely on the quality of the suspicions and the quality of the discussion that follows. Pyrr's "finger pointing" is more than finger pointing. Its aggressive finger pointing with shoddy evidence. In this post, Pyrr is asking for pity and is using appeal to emotion and faulty logic to shrug off accusations on the basis that I'm trigger happy. Main Points: 1. Pyrr's complaint that I'm being unreasonable by attacking his vicious finger pointing and his "neutral" stance + uselessness is absolutist and absurd. 2. Pyrr's posts spread doubt and do not draw informative conclusions. 3. Pyrr's posts are useless, don't show direction, and fit the motive of a mafia wanting to spread doubt while staying low profile and preventing town from going in the right direction. 4. While LSB's posts are scummy, Pyrr's posts are too. There is little doubt that Team 1 is mafia. I was going to post some motive analysis on Team 7, but got side tracked with Pyrr and his unnatural defense of YellowInk. I now feel that a complete analysis of Team 7 is unnecessary at this point, but I will post that tomorrow IF AND ONLY IF people don't buy my above argument. I'm too tired to post it now.
I love how I am supposedly defending Yellowink just because I gave a more likely explanation of what he was trying to say than what you were bringing up.
I did the exact thing for SouthRawrea and everyone thought we were mafia buddies for the next five pages. Now incognito is characterizing it as an attack on SouthRawrea along with half the town, while the other half is saying that I am defending some mafia buddy. All I was saying was that SouthRawrea has made similar posts while mafia and while not and that a tell was probably not to going to be found from its mere presence, as some had believed.
All I'm trying to do is give my perspective on what people are trying to say when people blow it out of proportion.
|
"The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable."
Yes it is more likely that the mafia are actively trying to kill each other on Day 1 and coming very close to it. More than two people's worth of players were going after LSB and I, does that mean I should consider them all mafia and be hostile to them instead of just giving my honest opinion?
Yellowink was voting for me but at least he earlier agreed with me about BC's odd inactivity. He might be mafia; I don't know. But when your whole fucking case is "Pyrr is mafia for sure, he is defending Yellowink, and therefore Yellowink is mafia" it is not very persuasive to me, given that I am not mafia, I wasn't defending Yellowink so much as giving my interpretation on what Yellowink was saying, and I've "defended" several other players the same way.
|
If yellowink is mafia because I defended him, then I suppose Team 2 is mafia because meeple accused Bill Murray of fluff posting for his vote on Team 2.
I do think that meeple's post after the kills was odd. Perhaps he missed the accusation from Ace because it was at Yellowink. I know my eyes were glazing over a lot of these anti-LSB posts. It is also bad of meeple to talk about going over Ace and BM's posts and then not do it. Anyway here is what I can glean to help us from their posts.
Ace on medic claiming plans
On September 22 2010 09:37 Ace wrote:I was fast reading, that was to LSB. Pretty much anyone advocating a medic claim should be looked at suspiciously. Unless the medic protects someone and the person is hit he/she should be quiet. Of course, if the person is hit then BOTH of them should claim. If there is a medic with 2 scum in the game it would be pretty sickening if on Night 1 they did this. If there is a DT they just ignore those 2 players for now and check other people out. Only way for this to fail is if both players are Scum and we can always lynch the non-medic claimer for confirmation on both if things get bad. Also why would the medic self-protect? That's just ridiculous. Protect whoever you think is most valuable to the survival of the town.
Medics and their protted people do not get any PMs, from what I understand, and Ace's reasoning probably doesn't take that into account. Would have been nice to have seen that in the rules post before the game.
Ace also was suspicious of LSB for advocating a medic claim, and idea that I think was first brought up by BrownBear(?). I don't know why it's so suspicious. The medic in this game is more powerful than usual in that he can protect himself, and therefore essentially become a stump who can vote, and still choose to prot someone else at some point. Of course the lack of pm notification is a complimentary nerf, but it also takes away one of the reasons the medic would prot someone else, namely to confirm an extra person. The medic could still be reasonably certain their protected person was innocent, given that mafia is unlikely to hold back a hit when we've already made life harder on them by no lynching, and there are, of course, no veterans or other weird stuff.
Ace's accusation of Yellowink
On September 22 2010 09:39 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save NOT gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
Notice Yellowink was suspicious for asking us to lynch despite the benefits of no lynch being explained by LSB (obviously Yellowink's mafia buddy) and Ace.
Also, from what I can tell Ace was for no lynch, although he had some qualifications. Bill Murray thought no lynching was a bad idea, although I think he ended up voting that way due to Ace realizing the votes on LSB and I were suspicious. Conclusion: there were plenty of reasons for legitimate townies to be on either side of the lynch/no lynch debate, although Ace's suspicion of Yellowink may be well grounded.
Here's a Bill Murray post about Foolishness
On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2.
I got really suspicious of Foolishness last game, just because he was quiet day 1. He was normal after that, and maybe he's always been quiet day 1. I expect him to make some posts of great import today, mafia or not.
There was some post by BM where he said infundibulum was matching his "red-meta" but he then took it back due to a post by incognito.
Also, BM and Ace made plenty of posts against LSB and I. Go ahead and dig those up if you want.
|
##Vote Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Review their posts to see their contributions. It won't take you long.
|
Alright, the analysis... yeah its delayed and I roasted for not posting it earlier...
BM:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2010 19:39 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. @pyrrexcuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy? @everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip. I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture. I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content. @mod votecount please ##vote: team 2
Expresses doubt about South's greenness due to fluff posting... says that he enjoys Incog and Foolishness's analysis, but adds a caveat about Incog's ability to spotlight as red.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek
States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:06 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language. bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here: Show nested quote +Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently ...What? Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now. vote: no lynch
Expresses doubts about his previous convictions and changes his vote to no lynch
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2.
Votes Team 1 to with Ace, and still expresses concerns about teams 2 and now 7
Ace:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 18:40 Ace wrote:
actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient.
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them.
I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1
States suspicions about LSB and votes for him
+ Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1
Gets anxious about the easy votes and unvotes Team 1
+ Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
Accuses Yellowink (Team 7)
Now lets see... Amongst the people that are included in the "easy votes" on Team 1 are:
bumatlarge
Divinek
Infundibulum
YellowInk
SouthRawrea
Incognito
Also the people that accused BM/Ace
YellowInk - albeit halfheartedly + Show Spoiler +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray.
LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory.
Conclusions:
I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
|
|
|
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
@meeple: I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam....
States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1. I'm going to assume that you mean that he said that I was an obvious scum rather than someone who revealed scum easily. If I'm making any wrong assumptions excuse me but, shouldn't you read the post before you quote it? Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
Just a couple things here before I actually go look team 7 because of this:
On September 24 2010 03:15 YellowInk wrote:
##Vote Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Review their posts to see their contributions. It won't take you long.
What on earth? That is the worst attempt I've seen at redirecting suspicion.
I also have an idea about a different mafia team but I'm going to see if I can make good connections first.
|
On September 24 2010 04:59 SouthRawrea wrote:
What on earth? That is the worst attempt I've seen at redirecting suspicion. Just because some people seem to have some odd ideas, I'll respond to this. I'm not redirecting suspicion. The accusations made against me are laughable.
I want people to look at T6 and give it some thought. I believe the difference to be sufficiently stark that the evidence speaks for itself.
Currently, I see a few different likely combinations of potential mafia teams. Most of the sensible combinations I've figured include T6. Hence, my vote.
|
lol this is hilarious. I am about to go out to eat, depending on how my night goes I will be back soon to make a few analysis.
|
Misconseptions
On September 23 2010 21:01 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6 Nah it has nothing to do with being passive. He comes out with a strong accusation against my team and then fails to followup or explain himself properly. I'm having quite a dilemna right now because I know very well that it's obviously considered anti-town behaviour to not post much at all and so I'm looking to the inactive teams. The problem I have is that I can't shake the feeling that the mafia may be an active team as well. I've got to go for now but I'm going to look over Team 6 when I get back from school.
Just saying, that was not a strong accusation at all. I then retract myself mid post. If it was an accusation, I would have ended my post with a vote.
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Also the people that accused BM/Ace LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
Don’t misquote me please
Ace/BM is scum:You said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
Miscellaneous
On September 23 2010 14:02 BrownBear wrote:
Well, mildly predictable. I was half-expecting team incog, to be honest, but this is also a solid hit by mafia.
(im assuming they were vanilla town)
So where to today?
Yeah, ACE/BM was vanilla town (their names were in green)
2nd post coming soon
|
I am against the Meeple lynch
On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone.
I don’t believe you gave him that much time.
Meeple did do analysis of Ace, after your post. He possibly could be busy and needed to do something else.
So I dug through the posts where Ace mentioned Yellowink and Meeple
And I found a post
+ Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
I don’t see an accusation of scummyness from Ace, all I see is say ridiculing YellowInk for being a “bad player”
Ace said he was unsure on whether or not Incog was right. Ace didn’t agree with Incog yet.
Killing Ace/BM is convenient if Team 1 and Team 7 are mafia. Mafia killing Ace/BM is equal to killing a less vocal and aggressive version of me/Infundibulum. It eliminates the only Team who agreed with me that Team 1 and 7 are scum right now. Which means I lose a supporter and need to work even harder to try to accomplish my goals. I think everyone would agree that I would be more likely to receive a medic prot than Ace. I'm guessing mafia took this into consideration and decided it was easier and safer to effectively cripple my steamrolling machine by sniping the quieter supporter. Now I have to find yet another vote to help me get them lynched. Real convenient, huh?
Team 7 is mafia. Analysis coming up in a few.
Again, you assume that Ace agreed with you. What Ace said is that either
1) Incog is good at finding mafia.
Or 2) Incog is mafia and good at killing townies, by painting them as scum from a 'slipup'
On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote:A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. [Vote]Team 7Main Point: 1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him. 2) Team 1 is mafia3) Team 7 is mafia
Um that’s not a defense. That’s a possible explanation. Pyrr explained it quite well
+ Show Spoiler +On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote:
totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
Bandwagoning?
|
On September 24 2010 07:35 LSB wrote:MisconseptionsShow nested quote +On September 23 2010 21:01 SouthRawrea wrote:On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6 Nah it has nothing to do with being passive. He comes out with a strong accusation against my team and then fails to followup or explain himself properly. I'm having quite a dilemna right now because I know very well that it's obviously considered anti-town behaviour to not post much at all and so I'm looking to the inactive teams. The problem I have is that I can't shake the feeling that the mafia may be an active team as well. I've got to go for now but I'm going to look over Team 6 when I get back from school. Just saying, that was not a strong accusation at all. I then retract myself mid post. If it was an accusation, I would have ended my post with a vote. Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Also the people that accused BM/Ace LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them. Don’t misquote me please Show nested quote + Ace/BM is scum:You said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
MiscellaneousShow nested quote +On September 23 2010 14:02 BrownBear wrote:
Well, mildly predictable. I was half-expecting team incog, to be honest, but this is also a solid hit by mafia.
(im assuming they were vanilla town)
So where to today? Yeah, ACE/BM was vanilla town (their names were in green) 2nd post coming soon
Oops sorry about that... did a search of various team 4 scum terms and that popped up... retracted
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
This post is about how Team 7 is mafia, and in particular, meeple. I will be analyzing his posts this game because I believe he hasn't done anything worthy of being on the town side. In summary, he's been asking a lot of questions, he's failed to provide any of his own thoughts (for the most part), he has been restating already said thoughts in an effort to make it look like he's contributing, and he has been a victim of the typical "hesitant mafia syndrome". Let's take a look:
On September 21 2010 05:08 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:49 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr When you read the thread, it should become obvious what is content and what isn't. What you post isn't content. What Incognito posts is. It's like night and day. Also, [Vote]No Lynchrasta and LSB have very good points, so I'll stick with this plan for now. I know it's a reversal of my earlier position, but I believe their logic is sound. We only get a single "No Lynch" if I understand correctly... you really think we should waste it on the first day?
Good question, but he failed to provide any of his own thoughts about this matter, while most other people had no problem voicing their own opinion.
On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch
Hesitant mafia is abound here. Still he brings up a good point about the bandwagon, but doesn't say anything else.
On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping? I think the general thoughts are that: Pros: - Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow Cons: - We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later - We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment. I think normally most people would go with the lynching day 1, if not only to get the info... but with such a small game every mislynch is a huge blow.
A seemingly fine post, but he's one of the last people to comment on at this time. By the time he's made this post, I've already detailed out why we should no lynch while countering every other argument. All he's done is restated arguments made by everyone else. Also notice his last sentence, he says "most people would go with the lynching day 1" yet he himself has already voted to No Lynch. Indeed this is quite suspicious.
On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:08 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oops I meant to bold the very last part and finish my train of though. All other scenarios are quite even but in the situation where we get no medic saves and choose to NL on day 1, we miss out on 1 potential lynch even though we survive for an equal amount of days. We have a maximum of 3 lynches in any scenario except no save + no lynch in which we have only 2. (This is of course assuming that our medic isn't a godly one. Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait... Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves... Today:_______________6 v 2 Tommorow____________5 v 2 Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1 Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves.
Now I suspect that he doesn't actually read the thread, since I already did this math in an earlier post.
On September 22 2010 05:34 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:30 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow
Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.
Give me a scenario where we use No Lynch today and we end up screwed later. Remember no medic saves. Well... technically can't we use a No lynch in a 3 v 1 scenario to prolong the game into a 2 v 1 with a higher chance of catching the last guy...
Which is great except I explained why that's a meaningless argument many many times.
I'm also very skeptical of his constant use of ellipses (...), as that further shows how hesitant he is. His use of these show that he's trying not to draw attention to himself by making himself seem less threatening. It seems like he's trying not to take sides on the issue at hand, and instead just bringing up what other people think. Just like a bad politician, he doesn't want to take a firm stance on an issue so he can't be held accountable later on. This is what mafia try to do, they don't want to take sides so as not to create possible enemies in the future.
On September 22 2010 05:51 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information. Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote... About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads.
This is just more of the same meeple as before. Notice how Incognito indirectly called him out and meeple gets defensive in a typical mafia style. Meeple explains his actions but doesn't want to make it appear like he's against Incognito and doesn't want to make an enemy. As before we see him being hesitant, especially in his last sentence. Remember in his earlier post he said most people would probably want to lynch day 1 in order to get the information out of it, yet here he says he doesn't want to lynch since we don't have much evidence or solid leads. Sure, everyone changes their mind about things as the game progresses, but this is just wishy-washy behavior.
On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town.
Of course he has yet to say anything about them. Incognito pointed out this fact, and meeple delivered.
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Alright, the analysis... yeah its delayed and I roasted for not posting it earlier... BM:+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2010 19:39 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. @pyrrexcuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy? @everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip. I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture. I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content. @mod votecount please ##vote: team 2 Expresses doubt about South's greenness due to fluff posting... says that he enjoys Incog and Foolishness's analysis, but adds a caveat about Incog's ability to spotlight as red. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:06 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language. bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here: Show nested quote +Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently ...What? Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now. vote: no lynch Expresses doubts about his previous convictions and changes his vote to no lynch + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2. Votes Team 1 to with Ace, and still expresses concerns about teams 2 and now 7 Ace:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. On September 21 2010 18:40 Ace wrote:
actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient.
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them.
I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1 States suspicions about LSB and votes for him + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1 Gets anxious about the easy votes and unvotes Team 1 + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? Accuses Yellowink (Team 7)
Now lets see... Amongst the people that are included in the "easy votes" on Team 1 are: bumatlarge Divinek Infundibulum YellowInk SouthRawrea Incognito Also the people that accused BM/Ace YellowInk - albeit halfheartedly + Show Spoiler +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
Yeah okay, LSB, I know he delivered, but what analysis did he really do? He compiled their posts (at least the important ones) and gives a one line summary of a few of them. That's not analysis, that's contributing without contributing.
I give him credit in that he wants to look at the bandwagon against team 1, as that's pertinent information to the game. However he mentioned this point in an earlier post of his (see above), and didn't do anything then. All he did this time was look at who voted for him, and which players voted and/or were suspicious of BM/Ace (which doesn't mean anything).
I also realized that his list of those against team one was comprised of the entire team 2. I don't find this strange at all, given that early day before No Lynch had been thoroughly discussed, team 1 and team 2 had all the heat on them. It would only make sense that team 2 would vote for them as they don't want to get killed themselves.
On September 24 2010 04:05 meeple wrote:
Also
Vote: Team 6
Okay look: this post came immediately after meeple's previous 'analysis' post. Meeple made no mention (as I can see) about team 6 or anyone on it. He says that we should be focusing on team 2, because BM had issues with team 2. That's a good point indeed, yet instead he tosses his vote on team 6 without any analysis or reason. YellowInk immediately follows in this manner.
A note to meeple and YellowInk: I think that team 6 is pretty suspicious as they've hardly done/said anything all game. I could easily be convinced that they are mafia. But none of you have done any analysis on them (in fact, nobody has), and instead you blindly throw your votes on them.
Vote: team 7
If you ask me, everyone on team 2 seems like a bored townie. I haven't thoroughly analyzed them though.
********
Summary:
1) Vote for team 7, meeple and YellowInk, because:
2) meeple has yet to contribute any of his own thoughts, he's only been restating already said arguments
3) meeple has been taking a very hesitant stand so far, as if he's trying to draw attention away from himself and not create enemies. This is mafia behavior.
4) These arguments coupled with Incognito's post about team 7 (YellowInk in particular) show that this team is outside the bounds of "bored townies". They are hiding something.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I'd also like to say that Incognito's analysis of the link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty damning. My suggestion and current feeling is that we lynch team 7 today, and if they turn up red our first target for next lynch should be team 1. If they turn up green (team 7 I mean) we'll have to start from square one again.
|
On September 24 2010 08:31 Foolishness wrote:
I'd also like to say that Incognito's analysis of the link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty damning. My suggestion and current feeling is that we lynch team 7 today, and if they turn up red our first target for next lynch should be team 1. If they turn up green (team 7 I mean) we'll have to start from square one again.
This is extremely dangerous, simply because if we fail we essentially enter into LYLO.
|
With that said, though, Team 7 is emerging as probably the best lynch candidate for me. However, I want to wait until they post more before making my decision.
|
Intresting... I agree its strange how Team 7 is accusing team 6. It's probably their trying to draw the heat off of themselves.
Anyways I haven't played with Meeple before, so I can't say much, but I went through this game
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=128918
Meeple was townie, and he wasn't a big contributor and didn't make much (if any) stands
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 24 2010 08:35 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 08:31 Foolishness wrote:
I'd also like to say that Incognito's analysis of the link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty damning. My suggestion and current feeling is that we lynch team 7 today, and if they turn up red our first target for next lynch should be team 1. If they turn up green (team 7 I mean) we'll have to start from square one again. This is extremely dangerous, simply because if we fail we essentially enter into LYLO.
Yes I know, but they have ample time to defend themselves and/or to tell us why team 6 is mafia (or anyone else for that matter).
|
Why do people seem to think that dead people have all the answers? Just because they thought a certain person was mafia before they had passed away, it doesn't mean that they wouldn't have changed their mind or that they had a good reason.
|
On September 24 2010 08:35 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 08:31 Foolishness wrote:
I'd also like to say that Incognito's analysis of the link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty damning. My suggestion and current feeling is that we lynch team 7 today, and if they turn up red our first target for next lynch should be team 1. If they turn up green (team 7 I mean) we'll have to start from square one again. This is extremely dangerous, simply because if we fail we essentially enter into LYLO.
No matter who it is, if we misslynch it goes to LYLO, why do you feel that this plan is more dangerous than any other?
|
On September 24 2010 00:53 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I love how I am supposedly defending Yellowink just because I gave a more likely explanation of what he was trying to say than what you were bringing up.
I did the exact thing for SouthRawrea and everyone thought we were mafia buddies for the next five pages. Now incognito is characterizing it as an attack on SouthRawrea along with half the town, while the other half is saying that I am defending some mafia buddy. All I was saying was that SouthRawrea has made similar posts while mafia and while not and that a tell was probably not to going to be found from its mere presence, as some had believed.
All I'm trying to do is give my perspective on what people are trying to say when people blow it out of proportion.
On September 23 2010 11:50 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I was trying to explain what I thought he was trying to say, which didn't seem as suspicious to me as it did to you, so yeah I suppose it is a defense.
A case of the pandering politician. Using vague/wishy washy words to soften the impact of your words. You're so terrible at defending yourself that I'm not sure what to think at this point. Stop contradicting yourself. Plain and simple, you were defending YellowInk.
At this point its not my job to convince the victim that he is scummy. Its my job to clarify to the town why my victim is scummy. So in the interest of clarity, town should ignore statements like these:
But when your whole fucking case is "Pyrr is mafia for sure, he is defending Yellowink, and therefore Yellowink is mafia" it is not very persuasive to me, given that I am not mafia, I wasn't defending Yellowink so much as giving my interpretation on what Yellowink was saying, and I've "defended" several other players the same way.
If yellowink is mafia because I defended him, then I suppose Team 2 is mafia because meeple accused Bill Murray of fluff posting for his vote on Team 2.
These statements are faulty logic and simply aren't true. Any sensible townie can read my case to see exactly why this connection is very suspicious. Don't be misled by Pyrr's misinterpretations of what my argument truly is.
|
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Alright, the analysis... yeah its delayed and I roasted for not posting it earlier... BM:+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2010 19:39 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. @pyrrexcuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy? @everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip. I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture. I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content. @mod votecount please ##vote: team 2 Expresses doubt about South's greenness due to fluff posting... says that he enjoys Incog and Foolishness's analysis, but adds a caveat about Incog's ability to spotlight as red. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:06 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language. bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here: Show nested quote +Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently ...What? Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now. vote: no lynch Expresses doubts about his previous convictions and changes his vote to no lynch + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2. Votes Team 1 to with Ace, and still expresses concerns about teams 2 and now 7 Ace:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. On September 21 2010 18:40 Ace wrote:
actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient.
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them.
I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1 States suspicions about LSB and votes for him + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1 Gets anxious about the easy votes and unvotes Team 1 + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? Accuses Yellowink (Team 7)
Now lets see... Amongst the people that are included in the "easy votes" on Team 1 are: bumatlarge Divinek Infundibulum YellowInk SouthRawrea Incognito Also the people that accused BM/Ace YellowInk - albeit halfheartedly + Show Spoiler +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
On September 24 2010 04:05 meeple wrote:
Also
Vote: Team 6
This is absolutely hillarious.
This is not analysis, it is mere compilation of posts followed by one liner summaries. Nothing really pro-town about this at all. Then, meeple decides to be suspicious of everyone on the Team 1 lynch and tells us that we should examine him. This looks familiar...First he says "
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town" without any followup. Then he says "I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1", again without followup. Meeple just wants to run us around in circles telling us what we should analyze. But doesn't do any analysis himself. Seems like a reoccurring theme here.
To make this even more strange, he doesn't even vote for someone who "bandwagoned" Team 1. He decides to vote for Team 6. Out of the blue. Yep. Definitely doesn't care about the town, and definitely doesn't put his vote where his mouth is. And definitely doesn't walk the talk.
|
On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote:I am against the Meeple lynch Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote:On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone. I don’t believe you gave him that much time. Meeple did do analysis of Ace, after your post. He possibly could be busy and needed to do something else.
When I posted about meeple's odd behavior, it was already 5 hours after meeple posted that we need to analyze Ace/BM's behavior. Look at my latest post. Meeple doesn't even give analysis when prompted. It probably didn't take more than 15 minutes to write that "analysis". And I didn't give him enough time when he had 5 hours to post it? That's just pathetic. Meeple doesn't give an "analysis" of Ace after, he gives a summary of his posts and posts a grand total of FOUR of Ace's posts.
On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote:So I dug through the posts where Ace mentioned Yellowink and Meeple And I found a post + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? I don’t see an accusation of scummyness from Ace, all I see is say ridiculing YellowInk for being a “bad player” Ace said he was unsure on whether or not Incog was right. Ace didn’t agree with Incog yet.
Relevant section of Ace's post here: The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies.
Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact.
Again its a defense. Looks like you like selectively reading your partner's quotes too.
On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote:
totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
Bandwagoning?
[/QUOTE]
As a veiled attack on Team 2 this is atrocious. Gonna accuse anyone who votes for your scumbuddy as bandwagoning? The evidence is pretty clear at this point.
|
On September 24 2010 16:42 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 00:53 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I love how I am supposedly defending Yellowink just because I gave a more likely explanation of what he was trying to say than what you were bringing up.
I did the exact thing for SouthRawrea and everyone thought we were mafia buddies for the next five pages. Now incognito is characterizing it as an attack on SouthRawrea along with half the town, while the other half is saying that I am defending some mafia buddy. All I was saying was that SouthRawrea has made similar posts while mafia and while not and that a tell was probably not to going to be found from its mere presence, as some had believed.
All I'm trying to do is give my perspective on what people are trying to say when people blow it out of proportion. Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 11:50 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I was trying to explain what I thought he was trying to say, which didn't seem as suspicious to me as it did to you, so yeah I suppose it is a defense. A case of the pandering politician. Using vague/wishy washy words to soften the impact of your words. You're so terrible at defending yourself that I'm not sure what to think at this point. Stop contradicting yourself. Plain and simple, you were defending YellowInk. At this point its not my job to convince the victim that he is scummy. Its my job to clarify to the town why my victim is scummy. So in the interest of clarity, town should ignore statements like these: Show nested quote +But when your whole fucking case is "Pyrr is mafia for sure, he is defending Yellowink, and therefore Yellowink is mafia" it is not very persuasive to me, given that I am not mafia, I wasn't defending Yellowink so much as giving my interpretation on what Yellowink was saying, and I've "defended" several other players the same way. Show nested quote +If yellowink is mafia because I defended him, then I suppose Team 2 is mafia because meeple accused Bill Murray of fluff posting for his vote on Team 2. These statements are faulty logic and simply aren't true. Any sensible townie can read my case to see exactly why this connection is very suspicious. Don't be misled by Pyrr's misinterpretations of what my argument truly is.
There's not much I can do when you are irrationally locked into me. I'm really not liking how you are twisting peoples' words around. I make it clear that I don't think Yellowink's post was suspicious, but it doesn't exonerate him of anything either, and say that it could be considered a defense relative to your accusation. Rather than allow for any consideration of nuance, you continually quote things away from their context and lock into the most suspicious possible interpretation.
In your second set of quotes, it is obvious that "your whole fucking case is [etc]" is hyperbole but it is damn close to the truth nonetheless. It also directly contradicts your idea that I am operating under the strategy of using "vague/wishy washy words to soften the impact of your words." I'm not really paying attention to the way I phrase things because the substance is more important but you are constantly disregarding this.
This is the same thing Foolishness is doing with meeple when he jumps on him with this quote
Also notice his last sentence, he says "most people would go with the lynching day 1" yet he himself has already voted to No Lynch. Indeed this is quite suspicious.
In context, meeple was saying that IN A DIFFERENT GAME, WITH MORE PLAYERS AND A DIFFERENT RULESET, most people would go with the lynching day 1. But in this game, in which meeple helped us understand that no lynching is a good idea, meeple voted no lynch and, indeed, most of us ended up voting no lynch.
Why do Foolishness and incognito keep stripping statements of their context in order to push lynches? I am much more suspicious of incognito and infundibulum, though. When Bill Murray totally misread my post about SR and jumped on it as some sort of monumental slip up on my part (the whole post is about SR in previous games, in which we have been on mafia teams together, which means we are both mafia this game...?), rastaban cooly explained the obvious.
Infundibulum, though, is more suspicious. He was against the no lynch, and very slow to change his opinion even when it was logically explained. Then he also was for medic claiming even though he also said mafia claims are very powerful.
"just precursory thoughts are that if the medic makes a save, he should probably claim - i get the feeling mafia fakeclaims are potentially very powerful in this game"
This is the best of both worlds for mafia - medic claims to give them more info, and then people are led to be scared of any claim that occurs. If you think mafia wouldn't be able to fake claim very well, then you should be more likely to support medic claiming, and vice-versa.
|
On September 24 2010 08:26 Foolishness wrote:This post is about how Team 7 is mafia, and in particular, meeple. I will be analyzing his posts this game because I believe he hasn't done anything worthy of being on the town side. In summary, he's been asking a lot of questions, he's failed to provide any of his own thoughts (for the most part), he has been restating already said thoughts in an effort to make it look like he's contributing, and he has been a victim of the typical "hesitant mafia syndrome". Let's take a look: Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 05:08 meeple wrote:On September 21 2010 04:49 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr When you read the thread, it should become obvious what is content and what isn't. What you post isn't content. What Incognito posts is. It's like night and day. Also, [Vote]No Lynchrasta and LSB have very good points, so I'll stick with this plan for now. I know it's a reversal of my earlier position, but I believe their logic is sound. We only get a single "No Lynch" if I understand correctly... you really think we should waste it on the first day? Good question, but he failed to provide any of his own thoughts about this matter, while most other people had no problem voicing their own opinion.
I expressed my thoughts later on... in fact you quoted some of the other things I had to say about using the no-lynch... this was just to start off discussion on the matter
Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch Hesitant mafia is abound here. Still he brings up a good point about the bandwagon, but doesn't say anything else.
There wasn't anything to say about the bandwagon... in itself it isn't incriminating, just to keep in the back of everyone's minds who is eager beaver jumping on the boat.
Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping? I think the general thoughts are that: Pros: - Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow Cons: - We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later - We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment. I think normally most people would go with the lynching day 1, if not only to get the info... but with such a small game every mislynch is a huge blow. A seemingly fine post, but he's one of the last people to comment on at this time. By the time he's made this post, I've already detailed out why we should no lynch while countering every other argument. All he's done is restated arguments made by everyone else. Also notice his last sentence, he says "most people would go with the lynching day 1" yet he himself has already voted to No Lynch. Indeed this is quite suspicious. Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote:On September 22 2010 05:08 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oops I meant to bold the very last part and finish my train of though. All other scenarios are quite even but in the situation where we get no medic saves and choose to NL on day 1, we miss out on 1 potential lynch even though we survive for an equal amount of days. We have a maximum of 3 lynches in any scenario except no save + no lynch in which we have only 2. (This is of course assuming that our medic isn't a godly one. Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait... Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves... Today:_______________6 v 2 Tommorow____________5 v 2 Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1 Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves. Now I suspect that he doesn't actually read the thread, since I already did this math in an earlier post.
The math wasn't new, its a restatement in response to SouthRawrea's comment that we only get 2 lynches if we use our no lynch... did you read the quote?
Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:34 meeple wrote:On September 22 2010 05:30 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow
Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.
Give me a scenario where we use No Lynch today and we end up screwed later. Remember no medic saves. Well... technically can't we use a No lynch in a 3 v 1 scenario to prolong the game into a 2 v 1 with a higher chance of catching the last guy... Which is great except I explained why that's a meaningless argument many many times. I'm also very skeptical of his constant use of ellipses (...), as that further shows how hesitant he is. His use of these show that he's trying not to draw attention to himself by making himself seem less threatening. It seems like he's trying not to take sides on the issue at hand, and instead just bringing up what other people think. Just like a bad politician, he doesn't want to take a firm stance on an issue so he can't be held accountable later on. This is what mafia try to do, they don't want to take sides so as not to create possible enemies in the future.
I always use elipses, mafia or not... just take a look through my posts... it's just a reaction to a pause in my head. I've taken solid stands on alot of things, I was against team 1 lynch and still am convinced that Team 6 isn't doing anything pro-town. The only issue I wasn't totally for/against was the no-lynch.
Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:51 meeple wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information. Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote... About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads. This is just more of the same meeple as before. Notice how Incognito indirectly called him out and meeple gets defensive in a typical mafia style. Meeple explains his actions but doesn't want to make it appear like he's against Incognito and doesn't want to make an enemy. As before we see him being hesitant, especially in his last sentence. Remember in his earlier post he said most people would probably want to lynch day 1 in order to get the information out of it, yet here he says he doesn't want to lynch since we don't have much evidence or solid leads. Sure, everyone changes their mind about things as the game progresses, but this is just wishy-washy behavior.
Yup, don't know what you're on about here... wasn't defensive... I admitted to not coordinating with YI, which was true and has been rectified... Incog didn't really call me out... he had some specific concerns that I responded to and why the hell would my response be to be "against" Incog. Should I stop responding to this accusation and start attacking you?
I'm not against Incog... I'm not convinced he's green, but he's also been very active in this game... calling people out on inconsistencies and getting them to respond is a good thing for the town, no reason for me to dislike that.Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Of course he has yet to say anything about them. Incognito pointed out this fact, and meeple delivered.
Pretty sure I said something about them...
Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Alright, the analysis... yeah its delayed and I roasted for not posting it earlier... BM:+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2010 19:39 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. @pyrrexcuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy? @everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip. I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture. I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content. @mod votecount please ##vote: team 2 Expresses doubt about South's greenness due to fluff posting... says that he enjoys Incog and Foolishness's analysis, but adds a caveat about Incog's ability to spotlight as red. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:06 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language. bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here: Show nested quote +Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently ...What? Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now. vote: no lynch Expresses doubts about his previous convictions and changes his vote to no lynch + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2. Votes Team 1 to with Ace, and still expresses concerns about teams 2 and now 7 Ace:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. On September 21 2010 18:40 Ace wrote:
actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient.
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them.
I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1 States suspicions about LSB and votes for him + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1 Gets anxious about the easy votes and unvotes Team 1 + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? Accuses Yellowink (Team 7)
Now lets see... Amongst the people that are included in the "easy votes" on Team 1 are: bumatlarge Divinek Infundibulum YellowInk SouthRawrea Incognito Also the people that accused BM/Ace YellowInk - albeit halfheartedly + Show Spoiler +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them. Yeah okay, LSB, I know he delivered, but what analysis did he really do? He compiled their posts (at least the important ones) and gives a one line summary of a few of them. That's not analysis, that's contributing without contributing. I give him credit in that he wants to look at the bandwagon against team 1, as that's pertinent information to the game. However he mentioned this point in an earlier post of his (see above), and didn't do anything then. All he did this time was look at who voted for him, and which players voted and/or were suspicious of BM/Ace (which doesn't mean anything). I also realized that his list of those against team one was comprised of the entire team 2. I don't find this strange at all, given that early day before No Lynch had been thoroughly discussed, team 1 and team 2 had all the heat on them. It would only make sense that team 2 would vote for them as they don't want to get killed themselves.
Summarizing posts and accusations is useful, it gives an idea for people who aren't willing to go through all their posts and find it out. Again, being on a bandwagon isn't totally incriminating, there's no reason for me to call red because they voted for someone I only suspect of being green.
Okay look: this post came immediately after meeple's previous 'analysis' post. Meeple made no mention (as I can see) about team 6 or anyone on it. He says that we should be focusing on team 2, because BM had issues with team 2. That's a good point indeed, yet instead he tosses his vote on team 6 without any analysis or reason. YellowInk immediately follows in this manner.
I followed YellowInk... part of the whole cohesive team strategy... I've posted my thoughts about Team 6 before and they haven't done anything to change them. I said that we should consider Team 2 because of the bandwagon and BM's suspicions of them, which we know to be genuine. However, I didn't totally agree with his reasoning and being green doesn't mean he's right.
A note to meeple and YellowInk: I think that team 6 is pretty suspicious as they've hardly done/said anything all game. I could easily be convinced that they are mafia. But none of you have done any analysis on them (in fact, nobody has), and instead you blindly throw your votes on them.
Vote: team 7
If you ask me, everyone on team 2 seems like a bored townie. I haven't thoroughly analyzed them though.
********
Summary:
1) Vote for team 7, meeple and YellowInk, because:
2) meeple has yet to contribute any of his own thoughts, he's only been restating already said arguments
3) meeple has been taking a very hesitant stand so far, as if he's trying to draw attention away from himself and not create enemies. This is mafia behavior.
4) These arguments coupled with Incognito's post about team 7 (YellowInk in particular) show that this team is outside the bounds of "bored townies". They are hiding something.
That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6.
|
On September 24 2010 09:39 SouthRawrea wrote:
Why do people seem to think that dead people have all the answers? Just because they thought a certain person was mafia before they had passed away, it doesn't mean that they wouldn't have changed their mind or that they had a good reason.
It's not about having the right answers, its that their suspicions are known to be genuine, so they should hold a bit more substance...
|
Alright sorry for the massive delay in this, I have been meaning to write this up for a while but kept getting distracted and lazy. I have a few teams I suspect, two are major and the other is very minor.
Team 7: Mepple, YellowInk
YellowInk
I swear to god you are the most negative least constructive poster in this game. I generally assume stupid content-less posts are mafia, you are without a doubt the least content, least thought post. If you make an accusation, provide reasoning. If you make an argument, provide backing, not just a stance. I don't give a fuck what you think, I care how you came to that conclusion.
Lets go over some gems now.
On September 21 2010 06:41 YellowInk wrote:
So there has been some good discussion occurring. As is typical, there are plenty of flaws in arguments. The key here is to figure out where people are trying to be productive (granted, a difficult task on day 1) and where people are trying to look like they're being productive or otherwise staying out of the line of fire.
I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions.
I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively.
I love the people who ask for more people to contribute even when they are saying basically nothing. Its like a feign at activity. This is like his 5th post the three prior were two 1 liners and a lets kill bill post.
On September 21 2010 13:39 YellowInk wrote:
Alright. I'm pretty convinced. The short version: No lynch is bad. This team's posting has been either unproductive or supporting anti-town ideals.
##Vote: Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Current thoughts on blues: If I were a medic, I'd probably cover either myself, team 4, or team 8. Not sure who I'd poke at if I were a DT yet.
This is probably the first thing that really struck me as what the fuck? Because quite literally I posted a few up saying why I supported the day one no lynch and YI contributes by simply saying he has formulated an opinion, implying he was convinced that no lynch was bad even though there were no arguments for it. Then voting for a team out of no where claiming they are anti town over quite literally nothing.
Alright it was Day 1, I took note but let it slide, maybe he just wanted to get us to post. Day one inflammatory posts are a relatively common tactic.
On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:So I am presented here with a problem. I still find it more likely that Team 6 is mafia than Team 1, though I agree with what most people have had to say about Team 1. After my last post, it was my intention to go into greater detail about why I believe what I do about Team 6 after a few hours and got some reactions. However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur. Therefore: ##Unvote Team 6
##Vote Team 1, LSB and PyrrhuloxiaWith respect to RebirthOfLeGenD's amazing rebuttal, here is why no lynch is bad. + Show Spoiler +As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang. We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2. The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion. This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.
Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.
The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia. Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.
Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.
Day 1 no lynch is very bad.
1. Why wait on your justification for us? Whatever.
2. Pretend no lynch is good with faulty reasoning? Check.
3. Suck at math and ignore what foolishness pointed out like twice.
4. Doesn't counter any previous arguments.
Cool.
He posts around 4-5 non contributing posts that really don't say much. Not bothering to quote it.
At the beginning of the next day he starts up with his accusation of me and BC again
On September 24 2010 03:15 YellowInk wrote:
##Vote Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Review their posts to see their contributions. It won't take you long.
Yes, read my posts, there is around 8 of them at that point. I can't really speak for BC I usually only get him on aim for a few minutes a day, hes been busy lately. But seriously? You make a retarded accusation without ANY supporting post? Its just annoying and not even constructive.
On September 24 2010 05:22 YellowInk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 04:59 SouthRawrea wrote:
What on earth? That is the worst attempt I've seen at redirecting suspicion. Just because some people seem to have some odd ideas, I'll respond to this. I'm not redirecting suspicion. The accusations made against me are laughable. I want people to look at T6 and give it some thought. I believe the difference to be sufficiently stark that the evidence speaks for itself. Currently, I see a few different likely combinations of potential mafia teams. Most of the sensible combinations I've figured include T6. Hence, my vote.
Didn't even say anything and is just redirecting accusations at his team.
Summary No content, Not explaining or support accusations or statement, supporting anti town ideas.
Verdict=mafia
Meeple
Really really a lot of no content posts, a few rule game questions and another no lynch is bad and using faulty logic.
On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping? I think the general thoughts are that: Pros: - Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow Cons: - We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later - We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment. I think normally most people would go with the lynching day 1, if not only to get the info... but with such a small game every mislynch is a huge blow.
Beat to death already, posts about it around 2-3 times.
On September 19 2010 11:40 meeple wrote:
So... any plans on rooting out red?
I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. Personally I'm leaning to weaker, seeing as now its three people who have to play the part of a single role. More chances for discrepancies and tells...
Ask for plan, speculates on Korynnes 3man team, rather pointless. Does a back and forth with Ace on it.
On September 21 2010 01:23 meeple wrote:Making a medic list at this point is useless other than just to play mindgames with the mafia, since they don't know if the medic will actually follow it or not... I agree though that they should be protecting the most active people... since even if that person ends up being mafia, the papertrail will be huge. @BM Why the vote? Can you explain...other than just fluff posting... I doubt that the quote is actually a slipup, but if it was that's clever. @Incog Can you really characterize a person's play by a single game... I know myself I played very differently my first game than my second, usually you're really excited the first game eager to contribute but that calms down after a while. I'm sure it's hard for you to remember your first game :p I do agree that neither have been really pro-town but that's a common characteristic Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:04 Incognito wrote:Also Korynne, as a good host you really should answer reasonable questions and be consistent in your answers. As much as its cute to answer in story mode, its just a headache if you don't tell people the rules. Not to mention unfair. Especially if you are clarifying rules in PM land. On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote:
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves. Also the no-lynch thing: A no-lynch should be allowed. Depriving the town of that option is pro-mafia and is nonsensical especially in a small game. In 30 player games, a single lynch doesn't hurt all too much, but being forced to lynch in an 8 person game is brutal. Especially since you have to lynch when there are an odd number of players left. Last edit: 2010-09-20 16:07:20 Why the edit?? And after all that high talk about what a good game host should do... tsk Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:08 Ace wrote:
I was pretty much out of it all day. What did I miss? Cmon I know you can do better than that... Vote: Team 6BC's only real post is this: Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ok as this is a super super super small style of game. Team game so technically very few players in terms of lynches we have to be extremely careful. To start with we need to generate discussion and yes I have seen some of this going on already woo we need to sit down and seriously think things through.
Lynching based off inactivity remember kills a team not just one specific member but the team itself. IF an entire team is inactive maybe we can opt for them. Opting on inactivity lynches based solely off one player in a team however seems like a bad idea, especially for the trio we have.
As for a general start past this
RVS [vote] rastaban/foolishness
Both are normally fairly active players and outside of one spam post, both are afkish. Plus no one decent to vote for.
For a verteran player, this says absolutely nothing... I mean he says lynching off inactivity is bad, and makes a RVS vote, saying repeatedly that its a nothing vote and he doesn't want to be held accountable for it... As for RoL, we find the same lack of commitment except he adds in some fluff about whether or not there is medics in this game... Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
lol wow I just caught up and that SR post is retarded.
Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.
Although if that is the case, I sincerely doubt medics can protect themselves. It will be really OP if a medic could just hoard protections on themselves all game since the mafia couldn't possibly kill them. On the other hand if they can only protect half a person they are a useless role. So medics either suck, are OP or aren't in the game. I'd lean towards not being in this set up especially since Korynne remained vague on the answer. I assume the logic is the same as when one of the mafia games had 6 variations of detectives but only 4 were authentic. The point in that was to add more to think about and take into consideration, but in reality it wasn't practical at all because it would break the game.
On that note, I will just go with my team mate and vote for Rasta/Foolishness for picking at incognitos post and ignoring the validity of medic protection list (even though I think medics probably aren't in this game, or at LEAST can't protect themselves)
To summarize because I like Incognito's idea about that.
1. For the moment I am leading towards foolishness/Rasta just because we have nothing better to go on.
2. Really doubt there is a medic role since it seems like it would be really OP, or really shitty depending on how Korynne decided to balance it, and her unwillingness to clarify in thread makes me think its not important.
3. Vote for Foolishness/Rasta just to make it clear.
Its day one though, so I reserve my right to completely change my mind for little to no reason :D
I will assume him and YI were just trying to get us to post a little more. I know I really suffer trying to think of what the fuck to post Day 1 in such a generic set up.
On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town.
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells
"Well, that sucks" very mild version of it.
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Alright, the analysis... yeah its delayed and I roasted for not posting it earlier... BM:+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2010 19:39 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. @pyrrexcuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy? @everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip. I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture. I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content. @mod votecount please ##vote: team 2 Expresses doubt about South's greenness due to fluff posting... says that he enjoys Incog and Foolishness's analysis, but adds a caveat about Incog's ability to spotlight as red. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:06 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language. bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here: Show nested quote +Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently ...What? Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now. vote: no lynch Expresses doubts about his previous convictions and changes his vote to no lynch + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2. Votes Team 1 to with Ace, and still expresses concerns about teams 2 and now 7 Ace:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. On September 21 2010 18:40 Ace wrote:
actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient.
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them.
I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1 States suspicions about LSB and votes for him + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1 Gets anxious about the easy votes and unvotes Team 1 + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? Accuses Yellowink (Team 7)
Now lets see... Amongst the people that are included in the "easy votes" on Team 1 are: bumatlarge Divinek Infundibulum YellowInk SouthRawrea Incognito Also the people that accused BM/Ace YellowInk - albeit halfheartedly + Show Spoiler +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
On September 24 2010 04:05 meeple wrote:
Also
Vote: Team 6
Left fucking field. Your post and analysis has NOTHING to do with your accusation and I can't even say hes trying to get us to talk again, since the day had just ended where I posted a decent amount. Its just stupid.
Summary Fluff/BS posting giving away some minor mafia tells, random accusations, false logic.
Verdict=mafia
Team 1: LSB, Pyrrhuloxia
The team was under a lot of scrutiny day one and I feel like we strayed off a lot and want to reinforce my thoughts and our previous thoughts on them. LSB had a LOT of slipups Day 1 and pyrr wasn't much better, but they cleaned up later in the day, the night, and today but I still don't think it clears them entirely.
LSB
Early day minor content, criticize infundi's plan, nothing special. We will skip to mid day basically.
On September 20 2010 03:50 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 02:32 Pandain wrote:
LSB, does pyrr know hes in this game lol? He hasn't posted at all.
XD Yeah I talked to him a bit, but the game just started. I'll yell at him to post next time I catch him. Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote:On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice. However, I do agree with Ace. Ace's question needs to be answered and Bill Murray needs to show that he'll help the town. Then we'll see how things go. kk. Just remember, we don't have enough room for policy lynches.
On September 20 2010 06:32 LSB wrote:
Lets see, two accusations going right now
Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight
Rastaban/Foolishness: Based on the Premise that they are more inactive than usual. Foolishness pops out and disproves that.
Neither one I like
Flagrant neutrality and not really taking sides.
On September 21 2010 03:58 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:
First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. Okay, obviously you haven’t played with me much. Mafia XXX was my rookie game, and it had some exceptional circumstances. First of all, it had lots of varied blue roles. That way planning was possible. On the other hand, Kor is following E9+1 townie. This setup is made so it isn’t able to be broken. It is slightly town favored. Simply put, there is no plan that is optimal because we do not know the existence of blue roles. Secondly, PYP I supported the plan because it was solid. I did not support your plan because it’s mafia favoredAlso, what happened to my Penalty mafia, and my RAM mafia games? To call me a planner in those games is laughable. Show nested quote +
In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism.
First, could you answer this question? Show nested quote + I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan? I want to read other games where this plan works. I don’t know how you got this to be stir the pot. What part of Show nested quote +Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? Do you not get? Where is the erroneous logic? I admit, the DT I thought of later, that is why I turned against your plan. Because it really is mafia favored. Show nested quote + In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Since when have I proposed fixes for broken plans? There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on. Your acting like a baby, crying that your toy is broken, throwing a tantrum because other people can’t fix it Show nested quote + Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies
On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.
You are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia based off of too few posts on day one? That is absurd, almost as absurd as the level of confidence in the accusation. Combine that with an over the top defense for a mild accusation is a big what the fuck.
On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote:Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now. Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful. Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him. Anyways, I'll still post my thoughts Divinek + Show Spoiler +Firstly I'm looking at Divinek's actions actions in Callers game. (He is anti-town, dunno the full story yet) Did a few accusations, nothing major. Was more of a bandwagoner The main thing is, he doesn't defend himself much. He just tries to laugh things off. He also ignored my accusations in Penalty mafia (He was mafia). Likewise in Penalty mafia he was a bandwagoner. So look for: Laugh accusations off, bandwagons The main thing is, it seems that he is jumping to defend himself at the littlest things now, small accusations that are extremely far fetched. On September 19 2010 11:40 meeple wrote:
I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. ^random speculation On September 19 2010 14:38 Divinek wrote:
i have no idea why he's on our team tbh, im assuming it has something to do with the power of greyskull. Divinek immediately jumps on this, and does his laugh it off defense. Also another defense On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote:
In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves. I immediately shot that idea down On September 20 2010 01:59 LSB wrote:
Just FYI, we lynch a team, rather than just one person. And I felt that conversation should have ended right there. To my surprise, Divinek suddenly posts On September 20 2010 05:49 Divinek wrote:
what do you mean lynching one of us will confirm us lol? if you kill one person of a team im pretty sure alignment doesnt flip, if that's even what you're getting at because you don't make it clear, that'd be pretty ridiculous. I've got my eye on you as always pandain!
I can't find it in the rules, but that's how it's been in the past...
Divinek should know that the whole team gets killed. He was lynched day two in the first TMM game. Obviously this idea has been destroyed already, since I pointed out that it wouldn’t work as per the rules, but why does Divinek suddenly try to offer a random explanation? I can only think that he is paranoid. Now, you might say that town defend themselves and this doesn’t mean anything. But these are the only posts that Divinek makes. He hasn’t contributed anything at all.That also mean that Divinek hasn’t been attempting to bandwagon people yet, but that’s because there has been no real attacking post yet. Divinek 2 + Show Spoiler +Later on Divinek makes this post On September 21 2010 05:38 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:54 Infundibulum wrote:On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me. yeah pandain had me confused into thinking players got lynched instead of teams lol. It's probably his scum jedi mind tricks at work. Bum wasn't drunk that's just his accent coming through in his posts. And SR has always been really good at posting really poorly. I would be all in favour of no lynching day 1, i mean why not use it on the day where we have the least information to go on? We'll still gain something as there will be a nk, or a medic protect to stop it or maybe even a DT check or something. But instead of throwing around wild allegations (which alot of people seem to be doing) i would much rather not kill an innocent today, which is what 95% to happen on day1? and go with a no lynch so ##vote no lynch This seems consistent, he’s defending himself. Also, since Team 2 is the team that’s getting the most votes right now, he can’t bandwagon that, he’ll go for the next best option, no lynch SouthRawrea + Show Spoiler +Okay, as town, he is pretty hard to understand. I played with him in PyP, and I just ignored his posts because they took to long to read through, and then I find that he’s making lots of assumptions At the same time though, he always put his two cents in. On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. Translation: It doesn’t matter what we do. This is very unhelpful. He makes a long post just to say nothing at all. On September 20 2010 10:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
I'd like to echo Foolishness's point and say that my take on this game is that it's almost 100% scumhunting. There's a 50% shot at there being a cop and Korynne is unwilling to release any information not included in the OP. (Usually though, medics can't protect themselves) This limits any plans that we may have especially because we don't know the setup and we may not be able to investigate.
Alternatively, Korynne may be setting up a game where we can look for clues with his/her posts to perhaps find the mafia or who's innocent.
Also: EBWOP for my earlier post. I didn't realize that we couldn't NL. I overlooked Korynne's post.
Anyhow, posting is good because we actually have nothing to work with other than posts at this point in time and possibly for the entire game. Again, he doesn’t say anything besides we should play as normal This isn’t putting his two cents in. This is simply just posting random stuff so it looks like he’s active On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr Okay, now he explains his posts, he’s saying that it’s impossible to make a plan. At the same time though, Incogs plan already declared that the existence of a cop is moot, all we need is the intimidation factor. Although I don’t agree with Incog’s plan, SouthRawrea’s post completely ignores this. At the same time, to try to prove that we can’t make a plan? That seems incredibly anti-town. A good plan wins the town games. To try persuade us that we can’t make a plan seems pretty scummy. Bumatlarge (Now seems pro town) + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 04:52 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. If you're certain why aren't you trying hard to convince the rest of us they are scum? I wanted to see what Bum would write. He really hasn’t posted anything. And there’s no way to tell if he’s busy, or if he is lurking. Bum then posts a pretty pro town post On September 21 2010 08:20 bumatlarge wrote:
I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff.
Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet.
Thoughts? I like the idea, basically we get a tree stump, that can vote, and someone is confirmed. That could clear up a lot of confusion. I don’t see a better role for the medic. As to answer Pandian, I’d like to see a confirmed townie more than a random chance of the medic protecting themselves. Math wise, the mafia has a 33% chance of hitting the medic during the two nights. And I don't count on stuff with less than half a chance of success
When the assault comes in from other poster his confidence drops like 10x in his accusation and claims he was trying to draw bum to posting T_T
On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote:
I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit.
Antitown, more antitown.
|
I am never writing posts on TL forum again, I just scared the shit out of myself thinking I deleted all of that then realized it just totally fucked up the format. I will fix it because its not even readable atm and finish it up in a separate post.
|
On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:
However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur.
On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
And I'm the one word twisting? You have an issue with selective reading. And sorry, you are not just "giving [your] interpretation on what Yellowink was saying", you're giving a reason for something other than he stated.
In your second set of quotes, it is obvious that "your whole fucking case is [etc]" is hyperbole but it is damn close to the truth nonetheless.
More selective reading. You obviously haven't read my accusation if you think that I am saying "Pyrr is mafia for sure, he is defending Yellowink, and therefore Yellowink is mafia". Here's what I'm actually saying: "Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is suspicious of Pyrr and accused him. Therefore both are mafia."
"If yellowink is mafia because I defended him...". No. YellowInk is mafia because of my above statement. I'll take this opportunity to quote you here:
I'm really not liking how you are twisting peoples' words around.
Seems fitting, huh?
It also directly contradicts your idea that I am operating under the strategy of using "vague/wishy washy words to soften the impact of your words." I'm not really paying attention to the way I phrase things because the substance is more important but you are constantly disregarding this.
Nah, it doesn't contradict. You need to look at this in context. Mafia is wishy-washy when they're trying to hide from the town and stay under the radar. Its obvious that they won't be wishy-washy when accused. Just imagining the defense "well, I could be mafia, but then again I couldn't be" is pretty laughable. Your posts are trash regardless of your alignment. You are known to twist posts even when town. Your pro-clarity and anti-word twisting stance I find very ironic.
|
alright to finish that thought, antitown shit follow by terrible idea for medic claiming for no reason.
LSB seems to get himself standing on two feet again after that shit cools down and he discusses medic statistics of saves and self protection.
Then he starts again being against the meeple lynch which is just weird.
On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote:I am against the Meeple lynch Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote:On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone. I don’t believe you gave him that much time. Meeple did do analysis of Ace, after your post. He possibly could be busy and needed to do something else. So I dug through the posts where Ace mentioned Yellowink and Meeple And I found a post + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? I don’t see an accusation of scummyness from Ace, all I see is say ridiculing YellowInk for being a “bad player” Ace said he was unsure on whether or not Incog was right. Ace didn’t agree with Incog yet. Show nested quote +
Killing Ace/BM is convenient if Team 1 and Team 7 are mafia. Mafia killing Ace/BM is equal to killing a less vocal and aggressive version of me/Infundibulum. It eliminates the only Team who agreed with me that Team 1 and 7 are scum right now. Which means I lose a supporter and need to work even harder to try to accomplish my goals. I think everyone would agree that I would be more likely to receive a medic prot than Ace. I'm guessing mafia took this into consideration and decided it was easier and safer to effectively cripple my steamrolling machine by sniping the quieter supporter. Now I have to find yet another vote to help me get them lynched. Real convenient, huh?
Team 7 is mafia. Analysis coming up in a few.
Again, you assume that Ace agreed with you. What Ace said is that either 1) Incog is good at finding mafia. Or 2) Incog is mafia and good at killing townies, by painting them as scum from a 'slipup' Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote:A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. [Vote]Team 7Main Point: 1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him. 2) Team 1 is mafia3) Team 7 is mafia Um that’s not a defense. That’s a possible explanation. Pyrr explained it quite well + Show Spoiler +On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote:
totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
Bandwagoning?
YI/Meeple has been playing mafia and there is really no incentive for these guys to be protected. It just seems painfully obvious mafia helping painfully obvious mafia. But I digress!
Summary
LSB acting shady not really contributing gets EXTREMELY defensive about an accusation then counter accuses someone, doesn't get behind the lynch of a very likely mafia candidate. Partner also acts suspicious (will get into in a minute)
Verdict=mafia
Pyrrhuloxia
He only ever starts contributing when LSB is accused in that hardcore post by infundi, before that its complete fluff and zero content
On September 20 2010 16:44 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future. Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now. Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch. Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams. Main Points: 1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy. 2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town. 3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now. 4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch LSB's plan was based on coordinating blues - we might not have a single blue this game. We can't really confirm anything because for the few roles we have... we don't even know how they work. LSB had a plan in one game - a plan that was started by Bill Murray and then edited by Pandain and then picked up by LSB. So LSB is suspicious because he hasn't posted a plan yet? I suppose the Medic plan would be an okay idea if it got us talking, but another problem I have is that I don't know who I would vote for other than LSB and I. If the medic can prot themselves, that would be their best option. The deterrence factor could be a good reason for it so we might as well do it. My post wasn't meaningless - you asked me why I made it and I told you. Not only has BM been quieter than usual, so has Ace, who is certainly more known for plans than LSB. He usually doesn't show up and ask for an explanation unless he is subbing in and he usually tries to browbeat the town into doing something when town (same with BM who doesn't mind making crazy plans and FoSing anyone who criticizes them). Also, I don't know BC to usually use this "RVS" tactic - it is usually a Bill Murray move. Any bandwagoning in a game this small is dangerous so if their vote sits tight under bad circumstances I will be onto them.
This is the first. An attempt at redirection towards team 6 when defending LSB, not horrendous but it adds up with LSB's shit.
On September 22 2010 01:56 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Eesh. Looks like Penalty Mafia all over again. The last few games I started out placing blame all over the place and I was way off. This game I try to be more careful and be more accurate about how suspicious something is and I am "just pointing the finger" and "not taking a stance on anything." Whatever dudes.
As for my partner, he was wrong to get locked in to team 2 when he thought bumatlarge was acting pro-town. I don't know why that mistake is so suspicious but the world will never make sense to me. Going forward you should all try to avoid this mistake and go after teams that are acting in concerted ways (3,4,5,6,8).
vote no lynch
A little more redirection and admitting some wrongdoing, I have played with pyrr and I know hes good and I feel like he was forced to defend LSB here and draw himself out.
On September 22 2010 05:47 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:50 Infundibulum wrote:
If you guys think it's wise to use our no lynch today then I'm fine with backing off. Unless i'm mistaken, the math works out the same either way as long as we use it, right? @ Foolishness, YellowInk posted an argument of substantial length detailing why he thinks we should save No Lynch for later (it's in a spoiler in his post in case you missed it).
To team 1's credit, Pyrr is not playing the way he usually does when he is mafia - it's mostly LSB that send off alarms for me. Still I think it's weird that LSB goes "we're certain team 2 is mafia" and then Pyrr denies it. Well I agreed with him that Divinek was acting suspiciously but I didn't realize he was on team 2 when we discussed it. And I said he was acting similarly to SR; so that is how LSB got to his inaccurate statement, as far I can tell.
Same as above. Feels like a bailout.
On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
I dunno how I missed this post above (referring to YI) but it was a terrible tell too, more anti town shit.
On September 22 2010 06:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?
I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me.
This shit didn't sit well at all with me. Like I said, I have played with pyrr and been in pyrr's games. He knows I am extremely active, barring like 1 where I had gotten kicked out of my house and with no internet modkilled. Just a load of BS. BC plays pretty erratically though, so he was on. It depends on his mood and whats going on in life.
Later on pyrr defends YI a little bit. Not as openly as LSB did though.
Summary Pyrr tries to just get by day one with fluff but gets dragged out because of the stuff with LSB they both act really suspicious and play it off later on. Defends YI.
Verdict=Mafia
I really think these two are mafia. I will say that the lack of resistance for LSB/Pyrr was really surprising but if you look meeple/YI weren't both aboard it which makes sense. On top of that this lynch they are defending each other. For this reason I would choose team 7 SLIGHTLY over team 1. Both behaviors were really scum however the voting feels a lot more right with this lynch.
Now I mentioned having a very minor next suspect which is Team 3 which is foolishness/Rastaban. The only thing is how inactive and Rastaban is and it seemed like he was lurking the thread for a little while there and tried avoiding really posting.
Its just a minor suspicion because its really small staff from Rastaban, add that in with the fact me and foolishness have basically posted the same shit all game and I am not convinced. Although foolishness is really good as mafia so its why it gets my attention a little more than it would for other people.
Now with that haven taken way too fucking long I am off to sleep.
|
Sorry about the edits, it was only formatting issues for readability. I didn't change content or anything.
|
That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6.
Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1.
I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts:
On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote:
I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people.
There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues.
flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez...
On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote:
Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time.
I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan...
His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on.
I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects...
On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote:
I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive.
On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote:
Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too...
I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving
On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote:
I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects.
On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote:
Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt...
Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away.
I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig...
Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us...
Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity...
Lastly,
On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler +The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red...
meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6.
|
Pandain/BrownBear have been completely inactive today. What is up?
Also RoL please vote!
|
shit rofl
[b]Vote: Team 7, Meeple/YellowInk.
Good thing I checked back.
|
To avoid further editing T_T
Vote: Team 7, Meeple/YellowInk
|
On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote:
I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people.
There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues.
flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote:
Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time.
I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan...
His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on.
I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote:
I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote:
Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too...
I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving Show nested quote +On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote:
I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. Show nested quote +On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote:
Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt...
Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away.
I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig...
Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, Show nested quote +On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler +The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6.
That was an awesome game... but taken out of context you can't say that I need to act the same every game. Behavioral analysis can only go so far... I was a power role then, and as such I acted differently from when I'm a townie, as in this game.
I haven't taken stands because as far as I'm concerned there's no stands to take... I haven't been really confident yet... although one is starting to develop. You seem to have developed quite the following... when you cast a vote you have a couple buddies that nod along and sheep with you.
Are you confident enough in your analysis to say that you should be next when we flip green?
|
Yellowink
Initially in this game, Yellowink was concentrating quite heavily upon having Bill Murray prove himself to the town as he was of the accord that we should consider doing a policy lynch. This in general was a horrible idea for this game as we simply did NOT have the townies to be wasting our available lynches. I'm not quite sure if he was aware of the type of game it was at this point in time but regardless of any possible ulterior motives, this is a good chunk of his whopping total of 11 posts.
On September 21 2010 06:41 YellowInk wrote:
So there has been some good discussion occurring. As is typical, there are plenty of flaws in arguments. The key here is to figure out where people are trying to be productive (granted, a difficult task on day 1) and where people are trying to look like they're being productive or otherwise staying out of the line of fire.
I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions.
I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively.
What I find wrong with this post is that he avoids pointing out these so-called flaws and then assumes a position of authority where he is "SATISIFED" with Incognito and wants more posts from some other players. That's just the way it reads at least. The only problem I find as is common in scum behaviour is that they don't quite practice what they preach.
On September 21 2010 13:39 YellowInk wrote:
Alright. I'm pretty convinced. The short version: No lynch is bad. This team's posting has been either unproductive or supporting anti-town ideals.
##Vote: Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Current thoughts on blues: If I were a medic, I'd probably cover either myself, team 4, or team 8. Not sure who I'd poke at if I were a DT yet.
Immediately in this game, he attempts a lynch at Team 6, perhaps hoping for a bandwagon. It's quite annoying however how he gives us a super short version of his reason labelled "The short version" and avoids giving a long version and begins using flowery, unexplained terms such as town ideals to make himself look pro-town.
On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:So I am presented here with a problem. I still find it more likely that Team 6 is mafia than Team 1, though I agree with what most people have had to say about Team 1. After my last post, it was my intention to go into greater detail about why I believe what I do about Team 6 after a few hours and got some reactions. However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur. Therefore: ##Unvote Team 6
##Vote Team 1, LSB and PyrrhuloxiaWith respect to RebirthOfLeGenD's amazing rebuttal, here is why no lynch is bad. + Show Spoiler +As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang. We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2. The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion. This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.
Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.
The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia. Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.
Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.
Day 1 no lynch is very bad.
Okay there are two ways of looking at this post: 1) He is making a bandwagon. 2) He is being consistant with his Day 1 lynch argument. The only thing that really makes option one a more likely candidate is the way he says he agrees with people about team 1 but avoids actually saying anything other than the fact that he finds them suspicious.
Finally, he comes back in day 2 and starts voting team 6 again with no explanations and tells us to look to them. Yes, I've been reading there posts but there are other suspicious people as well.
After going through this, I'm unsure of team 7's actual alignment because all YellowInk has been posting about is that Team 6 is mafia and stuff about the fact we should lynch on day 1. The thing that concerns me though is that he never really explains why team 6 is mafia. He just displays a constant routine of voting for them early in the day and giving a 1 line explanation to explain why.
So obvious mafia or unhelpful townie? Either way, I'm going to humour him and look into Team 6 deeply (I got sidetracked a whole bunch today and yesterday) and see just what he's accusing them of.
|
|
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 24 2010 18:53 Incognito wrote:
Pandain/BrownBear have been completely inactive today. What is up?
Also RoL please vote!
So has your partner, my partner, and BC (I guess not 'completely inactive' but you get the point).
|
On September 24 2010 18:53 Incognito wrote:
Pandain/BrownBear have been completely inactive today. What is up?
Also RoL please vote!
Sorry, my job randomly has me working from 8 PM to 8 AM. Will post later today.
|
@Korynne Bill Murray and Ace are not permitted to vote (they are dead) and should not be on the non voter list.
|
|
|
On September 24 2010 21:13 SouthRawrea wrote:YellowinkInitially in this game, Yellowink was concentrating quite heavily upon having Bill Murray prove himself to the town as he was of the accord that we should consider doing a policy lynch. This in general was a horrible idea for this game as we simply did NOT have the townies to be wasting our available lynches. I'm not quite sure if he was aware of the type of game it was at this point in time but regardless of any possible ulterior motives, this is a good chunk of his whopping total of 11 posts. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:41 YellowInk wrote:
So there has been some good discussion occurring. As is typical, there are plenty of flaws in arguments. The key here is to figure out where people are trying to be productive (granted, a difficult task on day 1) and where people are trying to look like they're being productive or otherwise staying out of the line of fire.
I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions.
I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively. What I find wrong with this post is that he avoids pointing out these so-called flaws and then assumes a position of authority where he is "SATISIFED" with Incognito and wants more posts from some other players. That's just the way it reads at least. The only problem I find as is common in scum behaviour is that they don't quite practice what they preach. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 13:39 YellowInk wrote:
Alright. I'm pretty convinced. The short version: No lynch is bad. This team's posting has been either unproductive or supporting anti-town ideals.
##Vote: Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
Current thoughts on blues: If I were a medic, I'd probably cover either myself, team 4, or team 8. Not sure who I'd poke at if I were a DT yet. Immediately in this game, he attempts a lynch at Team 6, perhaps hoping for a bandwagon. It's quite annoying however how he gives us a super short version of his reason labelled "The short version" and avoids giving a long version and begins using flowery, unexplained terms such as town ideals to make himself look pro-town. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:So I am presented here with a problem. I still find it more likely that Team 6 is mafia than Team 1, though I agree with what most people have had to say about Team 1. After my last post, it was my intention to go into greater detail about why I believe what I do about Team 6 after a few hours and got some reactions. However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur. Therefore: ##Unvote Team 6
##Vote Team 1, LSB and PyrrhuloxiaWith respect to RebirthOfLeGenD's amazing rebuttal, here is why no lynch is bad. + Show Spoiler +As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang. We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2. The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion. This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.
Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.
The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia. Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.
Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.
Day 1 no lynch is very bad. Okay there are two ways of looking at this post: 1) He is making a bandwagon. 2) He is being consistant with his Day 1 lynch argument. The only thing that really makes option one a more likely candidate is the way he says he agrees with people about team 1 but avoids actually saying anything other than the fact that he finds them suspicious. Finally, he comes back in day 2 and starts voting team 6 again with no explanations and tells us to look to them. Yes, I've been reading there posts but there are other suspicious people as well. After going through this, I'm unsure of team 7's actual alignment because all YellowInk has been posting about is that Team 6 is mafia and stuff about the fact we should lynch on day 1. The thing that concerns me though is that he never really explains why team 6 is mafia. He just displays a constant routine of voting for them early in the day and giving a 1 line explanation to explain why. So obvious mafia or unhelpful townie? Either way, I'm going to humour him and look into Team 6 deeply (I got sidetracked a whole bunch today and yesterday) and see just what he's accusing them of.
I like this analysis. I feel like its where I was aiming with mine but I did it a lot more sloppy because I did it at 5am T_T
|
It would seem we are striking nerve somewhere with split votes, or else scum is refraining from voting. Serious FoS on anyone who doesnt make a lynch-relevant vote. I support the reasons on team 7, but I think team 1 has a more solid scum verdict. But to avoid splitting votes further and trusting my compadres on team 7,
##vote team 7
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 24 2010 19:22 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote:That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote:
I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people.
There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues.
flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote:
Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time.
I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan...
His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on.
I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote:
I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote:
Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too...
I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote:
I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote:
Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt...
Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away.
I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig...
Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler +The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6. That was an awesome game... but taken out of context you can't say that I need to act the same every game. Behavioral analysis can only go so far... I was a power role then, and as such I acted differently from when I'm a townie, as in this game. I haven't taken stands because as far as I'm concerned there's no stands to take... I haven't been really confident yet... although one is starting to develop. You seem to have developed quite the following... when you cast a vote you have a couple buddies that nod along and sheep with you. Are you confident enough in your analysis to say that you should be next when we flip green?
I'm definitely pushing team 8 if you flip green.
|
The problem with the vote on my team is that the logic is fundamentally flawed. Very similar arguments point much more heavily at T1. It would make much more sense to hang T1 then give T7 a much harder look should they flip red.
Should we hang, we will come up vanilla town. There will be little information gained since the arguments are backwards.
It really makes me wonder what is going on in Incog's head. He struck me with a town vibe mid to late day 1, but then presented the backwards argument to hang T7 before T1 on day 2. This just doesn't make sense to me. It makes sense to me if T1 and T8 are mafia. Then Pyrr can freely back me up on hanging T6 and defend me since either hang is good for them. Also in this case it means T6 just sucks. Maybe BC didn't really have time to play, idk.
I would also advise people to go back through every post that has attempted to accuse me (personally). Note how deeply my words and intent has been twisted in particular cases. This, in the end, is what puts me on the T1/8 track more than the T6/?? track.
Also note that this final switch back to T1 is putting my neck on the line since driving for a T6 kill would have been more likely to save me. I just hope that if we do hang that in future days the town will look and analyze for themselves rather than continue playing this super passive game. Better yet, hang T1 and we'll go from there.
##unvote
##Vote: Team 1, LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
|
An Analysis of Meeple: A Panda Inspector's Story
Summary:
Meeple is townie. He has contributed, but it seems to me he's being accused for not contributing ENOUGH. But, he's contributed more than others. For example, Team 2, BC, and even about the same as Foolishness, who accused him. All in all, I cannot vote for him as he does simply not show scum to my eyes. I will be making future posts analyzing his play as mafia and town, and try to see any correlations, but as of now I urge everyone not to vote for him.
My fellow Panda BrownBear will be analyzing YI, but while I was initially suscipsious of him pure inactivity is not a good enough reason as of now, especially after reviewing meeple. Keep in mind YI has said he wouldn't be able to post that much this game, and while that cannot and should not be a ultimate defense, it is something to keep in mind.
His Posts this game:
On September 19 2010 11:40 meeple wrote:
So... any plans on rooting out red?
I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. Personally I'm leaning to weaker, seeing as now its three people who have to play the part of a single role. More chances for discrepancies and tells...
Speculation on the roles setup in this game. Now, from rereading the first Team Melee Mafia, this isn't neccesarily bad at all. In fact, for at least a good 2 pages it was just people speculating on the match up of teams and thoughts on the make up of each team. Now, this post has some content, and while not as much as some other posts this game(*cough* RoL's essay *cough*) it is full of content. Sure, we may have decided it may be irrelevant but its not neccesarily bad(keep in mind it was at the begining of the game.)
On September 19 2010 12:38 meeple wrote:
You're assuming they're green, and I'm thinking about what if they're red?
If they're green, then you're right its harder to convince them to vote a certain way, more resistant to mafia corruption. But isn't it weaker if they're red?
A response to Ace's post regarding the same subject, it's just more content. Again, this does not strike me as mafia as of now. He concedes some points, doesn't stick to one point, and again note he isn't accusing that team of being red, he's saying if they were, would they be weaker or stronger? And once we know more additional info about the setup, that may help us.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 01:23 meeple wrote:Making a medic list at this point is useless other than just to play mindgames with the mafia, since they don't know if the medic will actually follow it or not... I agree though that they should be protecting the most active people... since even if that person ends up being mafia, the papertrail will be huge. @BM Why the vote? Can you explain...other than just fluff posting... I doubt that the quote is actually a slipup, but if it was that's clever. @Incog Can you really characterize a person's play by a single game... I know myself I played very differently my first game than my second, usually you're really excited the first game eager to contribute but that calms down after a while. I'm sure it's hard for you to remember your first game :p I do agree that neither have been really pro-town but that's a common characteristic Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:04 Incognito wrote:Also Korynne, as a good host you really should answer reasonable questions and be consistent in your answers. As much as its cute to answer in story mode, its just a headache if you don't tell people the rules. Not to mention unfair. Especially if you are clarifying rules in PM land. On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote:
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves. Also the no-lynch thing: A no-lynch should be allowed. Depriving the town of that option is pro-mafia and is nonsensical especially in a small game. In 30 player games, a single lynch doesn't hurt all too much, but being forced to lynch in an 8 person game is brutal. Especially since you have to lynch when there are an odd number of players left. Last edit: 2010-09-20 16:07:20 Why the edit?? And after all that high talk about what a good game host should do... tsk Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:08 Ace wrote:
I was pretty much out of it all day. What did I miss? Cmon I know you can do better than that... Vote: Team 6BC's only real post is this: Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ok as this is a super super super small style of game. Team game so technically very few players in terms of lynches we have to be extremely careful. To start with we need to generate discussion and yes I have seen some of this going on already woo we need to sit down and seriously think things through.
Lynching based off inactivity remember kills a team not just one specific member but the team itself. IF an entire team is inactive maybe we can opt for them. Opting on inactivity lynches based solely off one player in a team however seems like a bad idea, especially for the trio we have.
As for a general start past this
RVS [vote] rastaban/foolishness
Both are normally fairly active players and outside of one spam post, both are afkish. Plus no one decent to vote for.
For a verteran player, this says absolutely nothing... I mean he says lynching off inactivity is bad, and makes a RVS vote, saying repeatedly that its a nothing vote and he doesn't want to be held accountable for it... As for RoL, we find the same lack of commitment except he adds in some fluff about whether or not there is medics in this game... Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
lol wow I just caught up and that SR post is retarded.
Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.
Although if that is the case, I sincerely doubt medics can protect themselves. It will be really OP if a medic could just hoard protections on themselves all game since the mafia couldn't possibly kill them. On the other hand if they can only protect half a person they are a useless role. So medics either suck, are OP or aren't in the game. I'd lean towards not being in this set up especially since Korynne remained vague on the answer. I assume the logic is the same as when one of the mafia games had 6 variations of detectives but only 4 were authentic. The point in that was to add more to think about and take into consideration, but in reality it wasn't practical at all because it would break the game.
On that note, I will just go with my team mate and vote for Rasta/Foolishness for picking at incognitos post and ignoring the validity of medic protection list (even though I think medics probably aren't in this game, or at LEAST can't protect themselves)
To summarize because I like Incognito's idea about that.
1. For the moment I am leading towards foolishness/Rasta just because we have nothing better to go on.
2. Really doubt there is a medic role since it seems like it would be really OP, or really shitty depending on how Korynne decided to balance it, and her unwillingness to clarify in thread makes me think its not important.
3. Vote for Foolishness/Rasta just to make it clear.
Its day one though, so I reserve my right to completely change my mind for little to no reason :D
Spoilered for reading conviencance, in this post we see some valuable information. First off he talks about whether or not to make a medic list, and comes to the point I agree with: No. He then offers evidence, saying there are several things wrong with that idea, including fallibility of people following the plan and follws up by saying medic should protect active players. Now, this portion seems very pro town in my eyes. Note he makes a stand, backs up with reasons, and in my eyes make a pro town choice. In my humble expierence(and please input with your own knowledge on this), mafia will either tend to:
1. Stay in the shadows, and let town kill each other.
2.Try to ruin town by leading them astray(aka false lynches)
3.Make town do anti town things.
So far, Meeple has done none of these. Later one he defends LSB and Pyrr in regards to their different playstyle. While noting they haven't been pro town, he says(truthfully) that people can change, as of I with my first game of spam spam spam(still do =D).
Now, he's defended LSB and Pyrr in two regards, but he only negates the silly accusations(notably the "slip up", albeit he says it could be, but he doubts. The second one I noted above.) A person could say "AHA! You are helping the mafia!"(If LSB and Pyrr are mafia, as I believe), but delving deeper reveals the truth noted.
The one suscipious thing is voting for BC and RoL already, and does give a reason(namely inactivity.) While RoL has proved otherwise, BC is a valid concern. So this vote is questionable, but not neccesarily scum-indicative. Still, something to look out.
On September 21 2010 05:08 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:49 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr When you read the thread, it should become obvious what is content and what isn't. What you post isn't content. What Incognito posts is. It's like night and day. Also, [Vote]No Lynchrasta and LSB have very good points, so I'll stick with this plan for now. I know it's a reversal of my earlier position, but I believe their logic is sound. We only get a single "No Lynch" if I understand correctly... you really think we should waste it on the first day?
May sound accusatory to some, and truthfully he doesn't really give reasons why not. Albeit he could just be asking whether he thinks we should use it today. So, suscipsious, but really as of now not that much.
On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch
Possibly contradictory to the above post. Again though, it's not a blatant contradiction like one LSB makes(see later for more!) If anything, it may just be he changed his mind. People can change their minds.
On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 04:52 Infundibulum wrote:
Actually an addendum:
YellowInk has a point that it would be stupid to use our no lynch today, when we don't need to, when we could potentially end up in a missed lynch = loss situation later in the game. I think this is the strongest argument against lynching Day 1. Is there something amiss with this logic that i'm not grasping? I think the general thoughts are that: Pros: - Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow Cons: - We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later - We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment. I think normally most people would go with the lynching day 1, if not only to get the info... but with such a small game every mislynch is a huge blow.
Sums up the thoughts of everyone. Again, some people may say that this is scum like as he is not adding anything groundbreaking, but realize who he's responding to and in what context. He's telling Infun basically what everyone is thinking. This isn't just a new post, its one clarifying. Therefore, that reasoning(he's not adding anything=scum indicative) must be taken with consideration.
This post always clarifies his earlier part contradiction, as it points out that most people would go with lynching, but we should realize the penalties of mislynching. So it negates the above, too.
On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:08 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oops I meant to bold the very last part and finish my train of though. All other scenarios are quite even but in the situation where we get no medic saves and choose to NL on day 1, we miss out on 1 potential lynch even though we survive for an equal amount of days. We have a maximum of 3 lynches in any scenario except no save + no lynch in which we have only 2. (This is of course assuming that our medic isn't a godly one. Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait... Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves... Today:_______________6 v 2 Tommorow____________5 v 2 Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1 Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves.
Apparently someone posted the gist of this before(Foolishness???). But again, not neccesarily bad.
On September 22 2010 05:34 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:30 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:06 meeple wrote:
Pros:
- Prevents a somewhat uneducated decision, hoping for some better information tommorow
Cons:
- We only have one, we waste it now and we're screwed later
- We go into Day 2 with just a little less information than we would if we lynched and found out someone's alignment.
Give me a scenario where we use No Lynch today and we end up screwed later. Remember no medic saves. Well... technically can't we use a No lynch in a 3 v 1 scenario to prolong the game into a 2 v 1 with a higher chance of catching the last guy...
Brings up a good point. I'd like to also point out that he's been contributing to this whole general discussion(important one too.) he's not derailing discussion, he's thinking about both sides yet not being wishy washy(he has a clear view.) Definitely not the typical scum.
On September 22 2010 05:51 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information. Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote... About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads.
Doesn't really say much, the most important thing being clarifying the statement "wasting our no lynch." It's a valid concern, and I'd like to point out he's not doing any of the things I really feel indicate a mafia, which again are:
1. Stay in the shadows, and let town kill each other.
2.Try to ruin town by leading them astray(aka false lynches)
3.Make town do anti town things.
On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town.
Albeit the post makes me sad(as he really doesn't do anything to help), he does say we should analyze. But again, he should be doing it himself too! So, not the best townie, but not "OMG SCUM" either.
But then he comes along and does it! Yay!!!!
+ Show Spoiler +On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Alright, the analysis... yeah its delayed and I roasted for not posting it earlier... BM:+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2010 19:39 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. @pyrrexcuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy? @everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip. I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture. I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content. @mod votecount please ##vote: team 2 Expresses doubt about South's greenness due to fluff posting... says that he enjoys Incog and Foolishness's analysis, but adds a caveat about Incog's ability to spotlight as red. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:LSB's admission is only icing on the cake@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1. + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:06 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote:On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical.
Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed.
Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid.
I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language. bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here: Show nested quote +Main Points:
1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love
2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit
3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently ...What? Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now. vote: no lynch Expresses doubts about his previous convictions and changes his vote to no lynch + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Foolishness trendily lurks until D2
too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk
I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though.
I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had.
It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways.
I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and
Vote: Team 1
Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2. Votes Team 1 to with Ace, and still expresses concerns about teams 2 and now 7 Ace:+ Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote:
Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information.
What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip?
LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. On September 21 2010 18:40 Ace wrote:
actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient.
LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them.
I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1 States suspicions about LSB and votes for him + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote:
this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all.
##unvote Team 1 Gets anxious about the easy votes and unvotes Team 1 + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? Accuses Yellowink (Team 7)
Now lets see... Amongst the people that are included in the "easy votes" on Team 1 are: bumatlarge Divinek Infundibulum YellowInk SouthRawrea Incognito Also the people that accused BM/Ace YellowInk - albeit halfheartedly + Show Spoiler +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
Spoilered for your conviencance. Its an alright analysis, and my previewing of it doesn't show any concerns. I note that he includes the accusations of his teammate YellowInk by Ace, and puts YI down as "Who should be examined" on the basis of that. For a while I thought he might use BM's posts to suggest that SR, Divinek, and Bum are mafia, but he also notes that Ace and BM expressed doubts and changed their votes.
His lasts 3 posts are just his defense, so I can't really analyze that(unless he makes a huge slip up in those, which I've read and didn't see.) So, read those in addition to my conclusion.
Other People:
I am with those who think LSB and Pyrr are mafia, and I find him a much better, and safer choice to vote for. In addition, I'd like to point something out from LSB:
On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote:
Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now.
Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful.
Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action".
This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him.
NOTE THE BOLDED SECTION. Now, what he's saying here is that he would have voted for Bum except for the post Bum wrote after a post LSB made:
On September 21 2010 04:16 LSB wrote:
Okay, I believe it is essential to use the No Lynch.
The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist).
And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change
I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits.
So, he was going to vote for Team 2 even after this, if not for a post? Wtf is this? You're fadoodling my mind here.
|
On September 25 2010 04:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I like this analysis. I feel like its where I was aiming with mine but I did it a lot more sloppy because I did it at 5am T_T
Yeah I woke up at 7:30 and did this before I headed off to school. I half-expected there to be mistakes because I kinda rushed it. I'm actually going to go through a whole re-read instead of just team 6's posts. I've got time to spare before I have to go somewhere and I'm not willing to trust the vibes I'm getting from people just yet.
On September 25 2010 04:41 YellowInk wrote:
The problem with the vote on my team is that the logic is fundamentally flawed. Very similar arguments point much more heavily at T1. It would make much more sense to hang T1 then give T7 a much harder look should they flip red.
I could continue my point about how you should elaborate about such things especially since you find this so important but I'll let that slide for now just because it's getting much too repetitive for my liking so I'm going to ignore this claim.
Should we hang, we will come up vanilla town. There will be little information gained since the arguments are backwards.
It really makes me wonder what is going on in Incog's head. He struck me with a town vibe mid to late day 1, but then presented the backwards argument to hang T7 before T1 on day 2. This just doesn't make sense to me. It makes sense to me if T1 and T8 are mafia. Then Pyrr can freely back me up on hanging T6 and defend me since either hang is good for them. Also in this case it means T6 just sucks. Maybe BC didn't really have time to play, idk.
The second bit isn't quite important but Incog did say that you were mafia mid day 1. Now I'm not saying Incognito is to be trusted and he could very well be manipulating all of the town in which case he's doing extremely well but he's been posting very proactively and being pro-town. I have no idea where you got the idea that he struck you with a town vibe mid-late day 1.
I would also advise people to go back through every post that has attempted to accuse me (personally). Note how deeply my words and intent has been twisted in particular cases. This, in the end, is what puts me on the T1/8 track more than the T6/?? track.
Okay so what's the point of not posting any explicit information? Your posts are basically your opinions with no analysis of any sort to back them up. I'm not saying that your opinions are wrong but at least make an effort to show that they have some substance behind them.
Also note that this final switch back to T1 is putting my neck on the line since driving for a T6 kill would have been more likely to save me. I just hope that if we do hang that in future days the town will look and analyze for themselves rather than continue playing this super passive game. Better yet, hang T1 and we'll go from there.
[red] At first this seems okay but then you realize that if the mafia team was T7, T6 that his vote on T1 would make alot more sense if you consider a scenario where he's mafia.
##unvote
##Vote: Team 1, LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
Just as a response to this because I feel that it is partially aimed towards me, I put my comments in red. Now, enough getting distracted! I've gotta review the entire game up until this point.
|
EBWOP:
LSB's contradiction isn't so criminalizing anymore as I now note he said "we don't have to use no lynch today. " so still suscipsious, but keep that in mind.
Also,
##Vote Team One
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 25 2010 05:10 Pandain wrote:
EBWOP:
LSB's contradiction isn't so criminalizing anymore as I now note he said "we don't have to use no lynch today. " so still suscipsious, but keep that in mind.
Also,
##Vote Team One
Okay, but what do you have to say about the link between teams 1 and 7? From my point of view (and probably Incognito's as well) voting for team 1 is the same as voting for team 7.
|
There's a difference between arguing, and flat out lying
On September 25 2010 05:06 Pandain wrote:Other People: I am with those who think LSB and Pyrr are mafia, and I find him a much better, and safer choice to vote for. In addition, I'd like to point something out from LSB: Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote:
Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now.
Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful.
Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action".
This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him.
NOTE THE BOLDED SECTION. Now, what he's saying here is that he would have voted for Bum except for the post Bum wrote after a post LSB made:
Bum posted the 2nd post before I released my Analysis o.o
Thats why in my Analysis, I explicitly state that I am unsure if their team is mafia anymore.
Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action".
That's why I did not vote for them
HOW MANY TIMES Do I have to say that I won't vote for people that I am not completely sure that they are mafia?
Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:16 LSB wrote:
Okay, I believe it is essential to use the No Lynch.
The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist).
And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change
I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits.
So, he was going to vote for Team 2 even after this, if not for a post? Wtf is this? You're fadoodling my mind here.
I said that it is in our advantage to use a no-lynch as either way (worst case scenario), we have only two lynches
You are wrong on both counts
|
On September 25 2010 05:42 LSB wrote:There's a difference between arguing, and flat out lying Show nested quote +On September 25 2010 05:06 Pandain wrote:Other People: I am with those who think LSB and Pyrr are mafia, and I find him a much better, and safer choice to vote for. In addition, I'd like to point something out from LSB: On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote:
Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now.
Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful.
Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action".
This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him.
NOTE THE BOLDED SECTION. Now, what he's saying here is that he would have voted for Bum except for the post Bum wrote after a post LSB made: Bum posted the 2nd post before I released my Analysis o.o Thats why in my Analysis, I explicitly state that I am unsure if their team is mafia anymore. Show nested quote +Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". That's why I did not vote for themHOW MANY TIMES Do I have to say that I won't vote for people that I am not completely sure that they are mafia? Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:16 LSB wrote:
Okay, I believe it is essential to use the No Lynch.
The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist).
And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change
I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits.
So, he was going to vote for Team 2 even after this, if not for a post? Wtf is this? You're fadoodling my mind here. I said that it is in our advantage to use a no-lynch as either way (worst case scenario), we have only two lynches You are wrong on both counts
Calm down lol. First of all I don't know what your talking about for the "first point". My only purpose in that was pointing out how you were going to vote for Bum after you said "We must use no lynch!" But I've already pointed out you saved yourself with saying "we don't need to use no lynch today".
|
There is a difference between "We should use the no lynch sometime." And a "We should not lynch someone today" o.o
|
On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote:Relevant section of Ace's post here: Show nested quote +The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact.
You ignored the second half of the sentence.
or he's just good at picking off easy townies.
I am seriously having doubts on whether or not you are town. What you are doing is taking small posts, and blowing them out of proportion.
I would understand if this is RL mafia, Freudian slips apply, but in online mafia, people are able to write up their posts and edit them before they post them.
Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote:
totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
Bandwagoning? As a veiled attack on Team 2 this is atrocious. Gonna accuse anyone who votes for your scumbuddy as bandwagoning? The evidence is pretty clear at this point.
Uhh… Again, you like to ignore my previous posts in order to further your own point.
I have stated that I will keep an eye out if Divinek starts to bandwagon. Guess what? He did.
On September 24 2010 18:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Summary
LSB acting shady not really contributing gets EXTREMELY defensive about an accusation then counter accuses someone, doesn't get behind the lynch of a very likely mafia candidate. Partner also acts suspicious (will get into in a minute)
Verdict=mafia
I’ll just quote this paragraph. Your entire ‘accusation’ was just a rehash of things I’ve addressed with Incog. Things like my supposed neutrality are brought up, and I have already addressed it.
I would understand if you refuted my defense. But you didn’t do anything. You just pointed out someone else’s idea and slapped a vote on me.
I can see why Pyrr wants to lynch you. And I’ll go with his judgment
##Vote: Team 6 BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD
On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote:
I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people.
There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues.
flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote:
Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time.
I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan...
His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on.
I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote:
I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote:
Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too...
I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving Show nested quote +On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote:
I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. Show nested quote +On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote:
Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt...
Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away.
I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig...
Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, Show nested quote +On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler +The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6.
kk I'll read through meeples posts with you.
1. No stand
2. No stand
3. No stand
4. No stand
5. No stand
6. Says that he thinks Ludwig and Radfield are mafia. There isn't that much anlysis
7. I agree! Very usefull contribution!
After reading through all of that I don't see how you are still able to accuse meeple of being mafia. Meeple doesn't really commit to much. Understandable, not everyone wants to play this game 24/7.
You point to his contribution (#7), and I agree. Thats great thinking by meeple. But you can't suddenly generalize everything off of it.
|
On September 25 2010 05:55 LSB wrote:
There is a difference between "We should use the no lynch sometime." And a "We should not lynch someone today" o.o
Which is what I pointed out
On September 25 2010 05:22 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2010 05:10 Pandain wrote:
EBWOP:
LSB's contradiction isn't so criminalizing anymore as I now note he said "we don't have to use no lynch today. " so still suscipsious, but keep that in mind.
Also,
##Vote Team One Okay, but what do you have to say about the link between teams 1 and 7? From my point of view (and probably Incognito's as well) voting for team 1 is the same as voting for team 7.
Alright, I sorted it out into 3 catagories
Negative(suggests no relation)
Indifferent(doesn't say)
Supportive(Suggests relationship)
LSB's Posts regarding Team 7
Negative:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? On September 20 2010 03:50 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote:On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote:On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote:
I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice. However, I do agree with Ace. Ace's question needs to be answered and Bill Murray needs to show that he'll help the town. Then we'll see how things go. kk. Just remember, we don't have enough room for policy lynches. On September 20 2010 06:32 LSB wrote:
Lets see, two accusations going right now
Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight
Rastaban/Foolishness: Based on the Premise that they are more inactive than usual. Foolishness pops out and disproves that.
Neither one I like
Indifferent:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:43 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote:
Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait...
Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves...
Today:_______________6 v 2
Tommorow____________5 v 2
Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1
Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win
Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases
What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves. Agreed! That's why no lynch! (I swear I said this somewhere earlier) Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted.
Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason.
Anyways, I can see what you said that this is a possible scum maneuvers. But just remember, a lot of the scum maneuvers and town maneuvers are the same. (Ie both try not to get killed). However, they do have solid reasons for disagreeing. It's based on No lynching. I can understand them, if Pyrr votes for something, and I disagree with him, I'm not just going to go, "Whatever, I'll just follow Pyrr", I'm going to vote differently
Supportive:
This one's a biggie.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 24 2010 07:35 LSB wrote:MisconseptionsShow nested quote +On September 23 2010 21:01 SouthRawrea wrote:On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6 Nah it has nothing to do with being passive. He comes out with a strong accusation against my team and then fails to followup or explain himself properly. I'm having quite a dilemna right now because I know very well that it's obviously considered anti-town behaviour to not post much at all and so I'm looking to the inactive teams. The problem I have is that I can't shake the feeling that the mafia may be an active team as well. I've got to go for now but I'm going to look over Team 6 when I get back from school. Just saying, that was not a strong accusation at all. I then retract myself mid post. If it was an accusation, I would have ended my post with a vote. Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Also the people that accused BM/Ace LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them. Don’t misquote me please Show nested quote + Ace/BM is scum:You said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
MiscellaneousShow nested quote +On September 23 2010 14:02 BrownBear wrote:
Well, mildly predictable. I was half-expecting team incog, to be honest, but this is also a solid hit by mafia.
(im assuming they were vanilla town)
So where to today? Yeah, ACE/BM was vanilla town (their names were in green) 2nd post coming soon On September 24 2010 08:49 LSB wrote:Intresting... I agree its strange how Team 7 is accusing team 6. It's probably their trying to draw the heat off of themselves. Anyways I haven't played with Meeple before, so I can't say much, but I went through this game http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=128918Meeple was townie, and he wasn't a big contributor and didn't make much (if any) stands
LSB's status towards Team 7: While he does make that big long post which defends team 7, that comes after a series of posts which do not seem like mafia working together. Why did LSB make this post? It could be for a number of reason:
1. Bring Team 7 down with him
2. Just trying to negate Incognitos as "credible"
3.Feels genuinely about the topic
4.Just posting about it(can be town or mafia.)
Also note in that post he is negative towards meeple, saying "DONT MISQUOTE ME BIATCH" except in a nicer tone. That brings up the question, why would meeple bring that up at all if there related?
All in all, not enough to elicit a Team 7=team 1. It may show correlation, but a neccesity? Not at all.
Pyrr's Posts regarding team 7:
Negative:
On September 22 2010 05:55 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:51 meeple wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...
unvote Team 6
vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.
On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.
Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information. Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote... About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads. The thing is, if we ever get to a spot where we need to use the no lynch to avoid a bad situation, we are helped out of that bad situation even if we use it day 1... in a sense.
On September 23 2010 11:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Doesn't seem like an odd choice for me because Ace is one of the best players and Bill Murray was pretty cogent so far this game.
Indifferent
On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
Supportive
None really
I'm not going to count the ones where he defended himself because those would be artificially made even if he was mafia.
Analysis: From LSB's two posts defending team 7 are the only things which really show a correlation. But that can be taken as an individual casis, and even in that post there were things which suggested a non-correlation.
So, possible but definitely not certain.
|
On September 25 2010 06:24 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2010 05:55 LSB wrote:
There is a difference between "We should use the no lynch sometime." And a "We should not lynch someone today" o.o Which is what I pointed out
Me saying we should use the no lynch sometime is a statement of fact. I said that I notice a tool I can use.
How is that a position on the lynch for the day?
|
And yes, I believe that Team 7 is town
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Is there anything in particular that makes you all want to kill team 6 over anyone else? I'm alright not killing team 7 at the moment, but you all seem to be voting for team 6 as a "well we need a team that's not team 7, okay let's go with 6" instead of thinking they're actually mafia.
|
To start with, I apologize for my insane inactivity this game. Have spent a fair amount of my mornings/afternoons job hunting, then out with friends I haven't seen for months at night. Few peoples birthdays, as well as a family in the hospital leads to me being insanely busy (much more so than I was anticipating). I have managed to garner time and look over the debates on today's lynch and some of the arguments are fairly convincing so I shall trust you guys this once as I won't have the time to go more carefully into things till tomorrow at the earliest. As such to avoid being modkilled.
Vote team 7
|
On September 25 2010 06:58 Foolishness wrote:
Is there anything in particular that makes you all want to kill team 6 over anyone else? I'm alright not killing team 7 at the moment, but you all seem to be voting for team 6 as a "well we need a team that's not team 7, okay let's go with 6" instead of thinking they're actually mafia.
=I'm going to vote with Pyrr, this way we can make our votes count more.
Of course, I have my own opinion too, and it supports pyrr's right now
On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6
I can't really tell about the BC thing, I'll take Pyrr's word on it. But I've heard that he is a a really good player and it is really strange why he wouldn't be doing much.
On the other hand, RoL Has been making really mafia ish posts. He seems somewhat active, but when we look at his long posts, they are mainly restatements of what other people has said.
RoL is band-wagoning a lot of stuff. Well he didn't bandwagon me day 1, but that would be obvious as something was wrong with that bandwagon. Me flipping green would be seriously detrimental to the people who started my lynch. But now as we enter day two, RoL takes an easy path and Picks on Team 7, and us Team 1. Something that everyone else has done.
In addition, he just does things that other people has done before. He makes 'analysis' but all he did was go through and reword Incog's attacks
|
On September 24 2010 19:22 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote:That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote:
I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people.
There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues.
flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote:
Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time.
I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan...
His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on.
I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote:
I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote:
Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too...
I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote:
I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote:
Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt...
Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away.
I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig...
Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler +The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6. That was an awesome game... but taken out of context you can't say that I need to act the same every game. Behavioral analysis can only go so far... I was a power role then, and as such I acted differently from when I'm a townie, as in this game. I haven't taken stands because as far as I'm concerned there's no stands to take... I haven't been really confident yet... although one is starting to develop. You seem to have developed quite the following... when you cast a vote you have a couple buddies that nod along and sheep with you. Are you confident enough in your analysis to say that you should be next when we flip green?
Apparently you underestimate or misunderstand behavior analysis.
There are plenty of stands to take. The only problem is, you just say "we need to do this" while not doing it. The other stands you probably don't want to take. Notice your partner ditching you here and going off to vote Team 1 again. That's the second switchup from Team 6 to Team 1 in two days.
Oh, poor you. Haven't been confident yet. But you're starting to develop it? Well show me, because I don't see it.
Whether town or mafia, good mafia players are able to influence people to their point of view. No matter how good an analyst you are, you aren't going to get anywhere if you can't convince anyone.
That last question is irrelevant. If you lynched Ace for pegging both of your teams, you'd kill an innocent. Being wrong doesn't say anything about alignment. You should be lynching scummy people, not people who get innocents killed. Of course, getting an innocent killed is definitely grounds for investigation. By all means, I'll encourage people to analyze my votes if you flip green. I just don't think they'll find anything that scummy about me though.
Judging by your vote for Team 6 and your lack of hostility against me, I'm going to guess you don't think I'm that scummy. If you're green, you might as well do an analysis on me before you die.
|
I have stated that I will keep an eye out if Divinek starts to bandwagon. Guess what? He did.
Of course, you're not at all concerned about your bandwagoning...
I can't really tell about the BC thing, I'll take Pyrr's word on it. But I've heard that he is a a really good player and it is really strange why he wouldn't be doing much.
Divinek's reasons for voting Team 7 are wayyyyy better than your reasons for voting Team 6. Just because you use more words than him doesn't mean your words have more substance and thought behind them.
Apparently Pandain didn't read my post here.
Voting Team 1 is almost the same (not exactly, but close enough) as voting Team 7. But the way its going now I'm sticking to Team 7. We'll know in a bit whether to lynch Team 1 or look elsewhere.
|
On September 25 2010 06:08 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote:Relevant section of Ace's post here: The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact. You ignored the second half of the sentence.
You ignored the connecting part of the sentence.
The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies.
The first part of the sentence is a fact. The second part after "which shows" states Ace's concern. Ace pegged your teams. He's just worried because he doesn't think highly of me, so he's alarmed that I came to the same conclusions as him. Since he doesn't really think I'm a good player, he's wondering whether we're both wrong and I'm just misleading him/everyone and picking off easy townies.
I thought people were taught how to read in school. Apparently not. I guess I'll forgive you for selectively reading if you're mafia. If not, we'll probably need a how to read guide for TL mafia. Really, its that embarrassing.
|
An Analysis of Team 1: A Panda Inspectors Journey into the Scum World
LSB
On September 20 2010 01:03 LSB wrote:
The main problem with Incognito's plan is that the existence of a DT and a Medic is not guaranteed.
I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan?
Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone?
Here we see the first meaningful post by LSB. Brings up several valid points. Its later refuted by Incognito but I might have well thought the same.
+1 for LSB
On September 20 2010 09:33 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 01:03 LSB wrote:
The main problem with Incognito's plan is that the existence of a DT and a Medic is not guaranteed.
I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan?
Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? You probably didn't read the whole way through my post. Anyway, basically mafia must always act as if there are DTs/Medics unless they want to screw themselves over. In this case, the threat holds weight even if the execution is impossible to carry out because the mafia can't know whether or not the threat is real. Town, on the other hand, shouldn't really care about if its possible or not. That's something the mafia has to worry about. I don't have any other games where this has been tried. But why is that relevant? In reference to your last question, I'll quote Foolishness here: Yes I did read your post. I understand that the mafia will have to act, that why I like your idea. The main problem is that in order to implement the plan, we will have to use the blue roles in a way that they won't be actively hunting/blocking the mafia. The DT will be checking the bottom of the list of activity/people not contributing right? Mafia knows that and will contribute The Medic will be protecting the top of the list of activity right? The mafia won't hit there. I'm just concerned about what cost we have to pay for activity. You now mention that the Medics/DT may or may not follow the plan, and it's all psychological. Mafia knows this too, and then the plan crumbles since the mafia will assume that the Medics/DT will not follow it. Rock paper sizzors
This quote makes me slightly suspicious. If in the previous post he says the main problem was that the existence of a dt and medic are not guranteed, then why does he say now that he knows that isn't a problem? Contradictions are not good! And then again, he says he liked the plan, but now he's bringing up several concerns. Again, this is possible of a townie and should be down, but why didn't he say it in the first post? Doesn't mean he's guilty(could have thought of it later) but definitely suspicious.
In this post he also uses several erroneous logic, such as the last sentence.
alright, so medics may or may not follow the plan(but probably will.) But LSB turns this around and says Mafia will then assume they will not follow it, and will ignore that.
That logic is illogical!
On September 21 2010 03:58 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:
First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. Okay, obviously you haven’t played with me much. Mafia XXX was my rookie game, and it had some exceptional circumstances. First of all, it had lots of varied blue roles. That way planning was possible. On the other hand, Kor is following E9+1 townie. This setup is made so it isn’t able to be broken. It is slightly town favored. Simply put, there is no plan that is optimal because we do not know the existence of blue roles. Secondly, PYP I supported the plan because it was solid. I did not support your plan because it’s mafia favoredAlso, what happened to my Penalty mafia, and my RAM mafia games? To call me a planner in those games is laughable. Show nested quote +
In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism.
First, could you answer this question? Show nested quote + I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan? I want to read other games where this plan works. I don’t know how you got this to be stir the pot. What part of Show nested quote +Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? Do you not get? Where is the erroneous logic? I admit, the DT I thought of later, that is why I turned against your plan. Because it really is mafia favored. Show nested quote + In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Since when have I proposed fixes for broken plans? There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on. Your acting like a baby, crying that your toy is broken, throwing a tantrum because other people can’t fix it Show nested quote + Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies
Here we start to see some definite scum vibes. Aside from verbally assaulting Incognito, this tone is very aggressive, and makes a very important false assumption without ever backing it up.
But let's analyze it further. What does this post do?
1. Tries to cast doubt on Incognito and toss him aside as (bluntly) a "crackpot."
a."Your acting like a baby crying that your toy is broken, throwing a tantrum because other people can't fix it."
b."I don’t know how you got this to be stir the pot."
2.Tries to cast this plan aside as "mafia favored" without ever trying to back that false assumption up.
And what does he offer? How does he try to help the town? We've seen in other games the numerous times he's gone above and beyond to help the town(LSB plan in XXX, recently in RAM).
But what is his thing now?
"There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on."
And he never offered a new one.
On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.
Very important. Suggests they have been thinking about this, and are pretty certain. But note later how poor the argument is.
On September 21 2010 04:16 LSB wrote:
Okay, I believe it is essential to use the No Lynch.
The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist).
And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change
I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits.
repeats stuff people have already brought up, says the obvious. Doesn't contribute.
Notice a trend: LSB isn't helping the town, he's just bringing down plans, casting doubt, and defending himself.
On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote:Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now. Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful. Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him. Anyways, I'll still post my thoughts Divinek + Show Spoiler +Firstly I'm looking at Divinek's actions actions in Callers game. (He is anti-town, dunno the full story yet) Did a few accusations, nothing major. Was more of a bandwagoner The main thing is, he doesn't defend himself much. He just tries to laugh things off. He also ignored my accusations in Penalty mafia (He was mafia). Likewise in Penalty mafia he was a bandwagoner. So look for: Laugh accusations off, bandwagons The main thing is, it seems that he is jumping to defend himself at the littlest things now, small accusations that are extremely far fetched. On September 19 2010 11:40 meeple wrote:
I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. ^random speculation On September 19 2010 14:38 Divinek wrote:
i have no idea why he's on our team tbh, im assuming it has something to do with the power of greyskull. Divinek immediately jumps on this, and does his laugh it off defense. Also another defense On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote:
In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves. I immediately shot that idea down On September 20 2010 01:59 LSB wrote:
Just FYI, we lynch a team, rather than just one person. And I felt that conversation should have ended right there. To my surprise, Divinek suddenly posts On September 20 2010 05:49 Divinek wrote:
what do you mean lynching one of us will confirm us lol? if you kill one person of a team im pretty sure alignment doesnt flip, if that's even what you're getting at because you don't make it clear, that'd be pretty ridiculous. I've got my eye on you as always pandain!
I can't find it in the rules, but that's how it's been in the past...
Divinek should know that the whole team gets killed. He was lynched day two in the first TMM game. Obviously this idea has been destroyed already, since I pointed out that it wouldn’t work as per the rules, but why does Divinek suddenly try to offer a random explanation? I can only think that he is paranoid. Now, you might say that town defend themselves and this doesn’t mean anything. But these are the only posts that Divinek makes. He hasn’t contributed anything at all.That also mean that Divinek hasn’t been attempting to bandwagon people yet, but that’s because there has been no real attacking post yet. Divinek 2 + Show Spoiler +Later on Divinek makes this post On September 21 2010 05:38 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:54 Infundibulum wrote:On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me. yeah pandain had me confused into thinking players got lynched instead of teams lol. It's probably his scum jedi mind tricks at work. Bum wasn't drunk that's just his accent coming through in his posts. And SR has always been really good at posting really poorly. I would be all in favour of no lynching day 1, i mean why not use it on the day where we have the least information to go on? We'll still gain something as there will be a nk, or a medic protect to stop it or maybe even a DT check or something. But instead of throwing around wild allegations (which alot of people seem to be doing) i would much rather not kill an innocent today, which is what 95% to happen on day1? and go with a no lynch so ##vote no lynch This seems consistent, he’s defending himself. Also, since Team 2 is the team that’s getting the most votes right now, he can’t bandwagon that, he’ll go for the next best option, no lynch SouthRawrea + Show Spoiler +Okay, as town, he is pretty hard to understand. I played with him in PyP, and I just ignored his posts because they took to long to read through, and then I find that he’s making lots of assumptions At the same time though, he always put his two cents in. On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. Translation: It doesn’t matter what we do. This is very unhelpful. He makes a long post just to say nothing at all. On September 20 2010 10:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
I'd like to echo Foolishness's point and say that my take on this game is that it's almost 100% scumhunting. There's a 50% shot at there being a cop and Korynne is unwilling to release any information not included in the OP. (Usually though, medics can't protect themselves) This limits any plans that we may have especially because we don't know the setup and we may not be able to investigate.
Alternatively, Korynne may be setting up a game where we can look for clues with his/her posts to perhaps find the mafia or who's innocent.
Also: EBWOP for my earlier post. I didn't realize that we couldn't NL. I overlooked Korynne's post.
Anyhow, posting is good because we actually have nothing to work with other than posts at this point in time and possibly for the entire game. Again, he doesn’t say anything besides we should play as normal This isn’t putting his two cents in. This is simply just posting random stuff so it looks like he’s active On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr Okay, now he explains his posts, he’s saying that it’s impossible to make a plan. At the same time though, Incogs plan already declared that the existence of a cop is moot, all we need is the intimidation factor. Although I don’t agree with Incog’s plan, SouthRawrea’s post completely ignores this. At the same time, to try to prove that we can’t make a plan? That seems incredibly anti-town. A good plan wins the town games. To try persuade us that we can’t make a plan seems pretty scummy. Bumatlarge (Now seems pro town) + Show Spoiler +On September 21 2010 04:52 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. If you're certain why aren't you trying hard to convince the rest of us they are scum? I wanted to see what Bum would write. He really hasn’t posted anything. And there’s no way to tell if he’s busy, or if he is lurking. Bum then posts a pretty pro town post On September 21 2010 08:20 bumatlarge wrote:
I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff.
Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet.
Thoughts? I like the idea, basically we get a tree stump, that can vote, and someone is confirmed. That could clear up a lot of confusion. I don’t see a better role for the medic. As to answer Pandian, I’d like to see a confirmed townie more than a random chance of the medic protecting themselves. Math wise, the mafia has a 33% chance of hitting the medic during the two nights. And I don't count on stuff with less than half a chance of success
Here's his accusation. What started as "we're pretty certain team 2 is mafia" amounted to "well maybe they are mafia, i don't know" and was just useless. Add to that how poor the logic is, and see my response on how false this argument was.
On September 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote:
At the same time though... having the medic protect himself does seem like a great way to be able to safely snipe off the active players.
Wow... in addition to the fact that it could be the active players that are medic, he's again not contributing, but only destroying! Where's the heroic LSB that always helps the town and contributes, with cool graphs and stuff. It's noticably absent.
On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote:
I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit.
this post IS scum. Just look at it, its an entire apology to there horrendus accusation of team 2. First of all, "I got weird vibes" does not equal to what you said earlier "we are pretty certain team 2 is mafia." How can you know day 1 if someone is intentionally lurking? This whole post does not makes sense!
In addition, he wants medic to claim day 2, which is incrediably stupid, since it follows the whole "stump idea", which is just stupid, since a confirmed townie does nothing at all, since we aren't even sure they are confirmed(could be mafia.)
So here's his first contribution: An anti town plan
Next post.
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote:
Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the
"oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote +
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory.
Unfortunately, Incognito didn't exactly point out the best reasons why LSB is scum, which gave LSB some wiggle room. But even in this post we can find evidence of scum.
Alright, you support No lynch(I wonder why?! Maybe because you're the ones getting lynched???) and Bum's medic plan(which isn't that much. and is actually a bad plan, as I've pointed out.)
So really, you have no real "decisions" on someone. Even team 6, who you're voting, you've hardly given any reasons why besides "general inactivity" and RoL definitely isn't inactive.
Again, he's still going along with "Incognito's plan is scummy" without saying why.
It just doesn't make sense!
On September 22 2010 08:57 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia. Ya I understand that the mafia would avoid him. But what if we are lynching someone, and then he suddenly claims that he's a medic? That's a big problem Anyways, when you think about it, the medic doesn't have that much nights with his ability (in the worst case senario). Of course, I could just be a pessimist with all my worst case senario thinking. Show nested quote +
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
I killed you because your plan was a mafia plan + Show Spoiler +On September 08 2010 07:40 LSB wrote:Reason 4) Pro mafia plans Show nested quote +On September 06 2010 02:50 Pandain wrote:
So here's what I say we do:
We make no accusations, whatsover. We let the NSVD work his way through checking everybody and then go with what he says. However, I'm thinking the NSVD should only claim like maybe after finding 2 scum(maybe even after checking everyone? n.n).
Than we lynch. The only problem I can see is that if there is a mafia role involving killing someone. I already PMed Caller and mafia themselves do not have the ability to kill someone. But roles are hidden so they might very well have a role that can kill people at night.
Either way, waiting at least until this day ends will both help stop an unnecessary death and let us wait until we see if the mafia have any really dangerous roles. This is an extremely mafia idea, Pandain wants us just to sit around waiting. This is always really bad relying soley on one person who may or may not be alive/in-existance. Pandain then changes his plan to "lets kill all inactives". Good idea, but most of the time, (ie 99% of the time) inactive are greens that don't feel the motivation to post because their role isn't 'cool'. It's good for the mafia as all the mafia has to do is stay active, and boom, a whole bunch of day kills go off ##Accusation: Pandian
Mafia can always claim a blue role to avoid being lynched, that's not something new. Claiming medic on day 2 won't solve that either. And my plan wasn't neccesarily anti town in that game(I shouldn't have been lynched gosh dang it!) but that's a different story, and irrelevant.
On September 23 2010 09:51 LSB wrote:Response to Incogs post Plans + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 14:47 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan!
Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Sorry, but "my plan" isn't easily exploitable as mafia. Yeah, the people not on the DT/Medic list will be considered "safe" from mafia POV, but I'd rather lose someone useless than someone useful. You're also missing the point. You're crying because you want me to address my "plan". Let me quote you again, Remember saying that? Thought so. Why is it that all of a sudden you want to refocus on my plan? Not going to fall for that one, buddy. You are falsly saying that I don't understand your plan, but in reality, you don't understand my problem with your plan. My problem with your plan is that the mafia can hide easily in it. What’s your response? 1) Start accusing me for not helping your plan 2) Start accusing me for not seeing why your plan is so “Pro town” 3) Make up a fake argument, say it's mine, and then claim that 'my' argument sucks 4) When I address 2+3, you start accusing me for talking about plans This is just getting silly and out of hand My Mentality: + Show Spoiler + Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions?
What positions are you accusing me of not taking on?
Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one.
Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it. So I should have tried to get BM lynched? Sorry, I don't push dumb things. Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better. Frankly you are saying that I should bandwagon and accuse random people. I only accuse someone when I am absolutely sure. I was formulating an accusation, but people wanted it too early. As you can see, I ended up junking my accusations due to Bum's posts Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point. If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you. Yeah, and once I start doing straight up analysis, your going to accuse me of taking your bait and being scum. Your going to call this your 'trap'. Good thing I put in this paragraph. Sure I’ll post analysis once I figure out something. But it’s not going to be because I’m trying to appease you. It’s because I’m going to try to take down the mafia.
Wait, was this your opposition to Incognitos plan? Mafia can hide in it, therefore it is favored towards mafia? Incognitos plan is common sense, medics will always protect the active pro town, and detectives will always check scummy people. If your opposed to common sense and what blues usually do, I don't know what to tell you. In addition, you keep saying "I'll post something helpful if I think of it" YET YOU HAVEN'T ALL GAME
Note all he's done in the past like 10 posts is defend himself. He hasn't done anything else other than bring down plans, without contributing, and leading astray the town. This is not the pro town LSB we know, or the pro town Townie that should be him.
On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote:I am against the Meeple lynch Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote:On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote:
odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone. I don’t believe you gave him that much time. Meeple did do analysis of Ace, after your post. He possibly could be busy and needed to do something else. So I dug through the posts where Ace mentioned Yellowink and Meeple And I found a post + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? I don’t see an accusation of scummyness from Ace, all I see is say ridiculing YellowInk for being a “bad player” Ace said he was unsure on whether or not Incog was right. Ace didn’t agree with Incog yet. Show nested quote +
Killing Ace/BM is convenient if Team 1 and Team 7 are mafia. Mafia killing Ace/BM is equal to killing a less vocal and aggressive version of me/Infundibulum. It eliminates the only Team who agreed with me that Team 1 and 7 are scum right now. Which means I lose a supporter and need to work even harder to try to accomplish my goals. I think everyone would agree that I would be more likely to receive a medic prot than Ace. I'm guessing mafia took this into consideration and decided it was easier and safer to effectively cripple my steamrolling machine by sniping the quieter supporter. Now I have to find yet another vote to help me get them lynched. Real convenient, huh?
Team 7 is mafia. Analysis coming up in a few.
Again, you assume that Ace agreed with you. What Ace said is that either 1) Incog is good at finding mafia. Or 2) Incog is mafia and good at killing townies, by painting them as scum from a 'slipup' Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote:A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. [Vote]Team 7Main Point: 1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him. 2) Team 1 is mafia3) Team 7 is mafia Um that’s not a defense. That’s a possible explanation. Pyrr explained it quite well + Show Spoiler +On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote:
totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
Bandwagoning?
Here is the first "contributive" post in which he really makes a stand. Except even then it just amounts to "maybe he didn't get enough time. " Horrible argument, and all the while it seems like his main point is getting people to distrust Incognito.
On September 24 2010 08:49 LSB wrote:Intresting... I agree its strange how Team 7 is accusing team 6. It's probably their trying to draw the heat off of themselves. Anyways I haven't played with Meeple before, so I can't say much, but I went through this game http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=128918Meeple was townie, and he wasn't a big contributor and didn't make much (if any) stands
Way to contradict with your previous post, and the post itself!
On September 25 2010 06:08 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote:Relevant section of Ace's post here: The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact. You ignored the second half of the sentence. I am seriously having doubts on whether or not you are town. What you are doing is taking small posts, and blowing them out of proportion. I would understand if this is RL mafia, Freudian slips apply, but in online mafia, people are able to write up their posts and edit them before they post them. Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote:
totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
Bandwagoning? As a veiled attack on Team 2 this is atrocious. Gonna accuse anyone who votes for your scumbuddy as bandwagoning? The evidence is pretty clear at this point. Uhh… Again, you like to ignore my previous posts in order to further your own point. I have stated that I will keep an eye out if Divinek starts to bandwagon. Guess what? He did. Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 18:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Summary
LSB acting shady not really contributing gets EXTREMELY defensive about an accusation then counter accuses someone, doesn't get behind the lynch of a very likely mafia candidate. Partner also acts suspicious (will get into in a minute)
Verdict=mafia I’ll just quote this paragraph. Your entire ‘accusation’ was just a rehash of things I’ve addressed with Incog. Things like my supposed neutrality are brought up, and I have already addressed it. I would understand if you refuted my defense. But you didn’t do anything. You just pointed out someone else’s idea and slapped a vote on me. I can see why Pyrr wants to lynch you. And I’ll go with his judgment ##Vote: Team 6 BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenDShow nested quote +On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote:That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote:
I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people.
There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues.
flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote:
Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time.
I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan...
His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on.
I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote:
I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote:
Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too...
I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote:
I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote:
Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt...
Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away.
I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig...
Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler +The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6. kk I'll read through meeples posts with you. 1. No stand 2. No stand 3. No stand 4. No stand 5. No stand 6. Says that he thinks Ludwig and Radfield are mafia. There isn't that much anlysis 7. I agree! Very usefull contribution! After reading through all of that I don't see how you are still able to accuse meeple of being mafia. Meeple doesn't really commit to much. Understandable, not everyone wants to play this game 24/7. You point to his contribution (#7), and I agree. Thats great thinking by meeple. But you can't suddenly generalize everything off of it.
Just more trying to cast doubt on Incognito "I have serious doubts on whether your townie." Just defends himself, doesn't contribute.
On September 25 2010 07:24 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2010 06:58 Foolishness wrote:
Is there anything in particular that makes you all want to kill team 6 over anyone else? I'm alright not killing team 7 at the moment, but you all seem to be voting for team 6 as a "well we need a team that's not team 7, okay let's go with 6" instead of thinking they're actually mafia. =I'm going to vote with Pyrr, this way we can make our votes count more. Of course, I have my own opinion too, and it supports pyrr's right now Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6 I can't really tell about the BC thing, I'll take Pyrr's word on it. But I've heard that he is a a really good player and it is really strange why he wouldn't be doing much. On the other hand, RoL Has been making really mafia ish posts. He seems somewhat active, but when we look at his long posts, they are mainly restatements of what other people has said. RoL is band-wagoning a lot of stuff. Well he didn't bandwagon me day 1, but that would be obvious as something was wrong with that bandwagon. Me flipping green would be seriously detrimental to the people who started my lynch. But now as we enter day two, RoL takes an easy path and Picks on Team 7, and us Team 1. Something that everyone else has done. In addition, he just does things that other people has done before. He makes 'analysis' but all he did was go through and reword Incog's attacks
Hey, remember that previous post? In which you said you and Pyrr would have different opinoins and you would do your own stuff? How about that eh? "I'll take Pyrr's word on it." No analysis, just bandwagoning and going along with others. Now he's accusing RoL for making "really mafia ish posts." He brings up new things LSB, and IS active. And you aren't contributing at all.
So, General Patterns of LSB:
1.Defends himself
2.Doesn't contribute
3. Defends himself mainly by accusing other people and saying their mafia
4.Contradicting himself.
LSB is mafia.
Pyrr coming up next.
Seriously guys, Team 1 is a WAY better lynch option than Team 7, I urge you all to change your votes.
|
Again, Everyone voting for team 7 or the illogical votes for team 6 please change to Team 1. They're a much better, safer, and more logical choice for the lynch, and we don't have much time yet.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
The link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty clear. I don't think it makes much of a difference between the two. We should be considering either team 6 or 7 instead, and not team 1.
|
On September 25 2010 08:10 Foolishness wrote:
The link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty clear. I don't think it makes much of a difference between the two. We should be considering either team 6 or 7 instead, and not team 1.
I've negated that connection. The fact that team 7 in my opinion is town, and the lack of a clear connection to team 1, we must choose Team 1. Also, I think RoL is saving team 6, and I'm willing to see Team 6 live another day if BC starts stepping it up.
|
Part 2: An Analysis of Pyrr(Or, How I Learned to stop worrying and Love the bomb)
On September 20 2010 08:47 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I think Foolishness pointed out all the reason's why Incognito's plan is bad: especially true are that no one ever seems to follow them and that medics should protect themselves until they get a really good read on someone else.
Doesn't contribute, a clear "I repeat what someone says." Also tries to negate a plan by saying no one will follow it, which is one of the worst arguments someone can make as that can be applied to anything.
On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated.
In the words of someone else, what is the purpose of this post?
On September 20 2010 11:57 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 09:01 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated. What is the point of this post? Encourage Bill Murray to post / state where I am / encourage Ace and Bill Murray to act as a team rather than two people with one vote if they are town
I see the connection *end sarcasm*.
On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 14:15 BrownBear wrote:On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.
TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit. That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving.
Besides the possible slip up(which can now be interperted of him knowing is town), the real content is null. It's helpful...I guess.
On September 20 2010 16:44 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.
First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future. Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now. Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch. Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams. Main Points: 1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy. 2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town. 3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now. 4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch LSB's plan was based on coordinating blues - we might not have a single blue this game. We can't really confirm anything because for the few roles we have... we don't even know how they work. LSB had a plan in one game - a plan that was started by Bill Murray and then edited by Pandain and then picked up by LSB. So LSB is suspicious because he hasn't posted a plan yet? I suppose the Medic plan would be an okay idea if it got us talking, but another problem I have is that I don't know who I would vote for other than LSB and I. If the medic can prot themselves, that would be their best option. The deterrence factor could be a good reason for it so we might as well do it. My post wasn't meaningless - you asked me why I made it and I told you. Not only has BM been quieter than usual, so has Ace, who is certainly more known for plans than LSB. He usually doesn't show up and ask for an explanation unless he is subbing in and he usually tries to browbeat the town into doing something when town (same with BM who doesn't mind making crazy plans and FoSing anyone who criticizes them). Also, I don't know BC to usually use this "RVS" tactic - it is usually a Bill Murray move. Any bandwagoning in a game this small is dangerous so if their vote sits tight under bad circumstances I will be onto them.
Mmm... says he's suscipious of BM and Ace because they haven't posted that much in like the first 12 hours...(and they later turn out to be town). I won't comment on the last paragraph(not enough knowledge) but it seems alright.
(He defends himself after some accusations.....)
On September 21 2010 10:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him.
I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad.
Supports the (bad) plan that Bumatlarge proposed. And how did he not realize Divinek is on team 2? Alright, I misread the number of ninjas so I guess I can't blame him :p
On September 22 2010 01:56 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Eesh. Looks like Penalty Mafia all over again. The last few games I started out placing blame all over the place and I was way off. This game I try to be more careful and be more accurate about how suspicious something is and I am "just pointing the finger" and "not taking a stance on anything." Whatever dudes.
As for my partner, he was wrong to get locked in to team 2 when he thought bumatlarge was acting pro-town. I don't know why that mistake is so suspicious but the world will never make sense to me. Going forward you should all try to avoid this mistake and go after teams that are acting in concerted ways (3,4,5,6,8).
vote no lynch
Apologizes for his partner, tries to wave it aside. Doesn't contribute.
On September 22 2010 06:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?
I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me.
Alright, valid point. I don't see why being too active is bad(as long as you aren't spamming), but its alright. He tries to cast doubt on BC for the RVS, but BC's already said that that was just to get some discussion, and in no way serious.
On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check). What if we don't have a cop? Well the medic can let us know (or keep that to himself if he thinks it would help mafia to know). Medic claiming, as you said, "is just a useless tidbit," it won't help mafia that much because the medic can just bluff and decide to say he will prot himself while protting someone else or say he will prot someone else and prot himself, etc.
Plan which fails because of no pms. How does he not know theres no pms? Makes me think he's mafia, but of course thats speculation.
So, Conclusion
While not as scummy and as obvious as LSB, that can be attributed to a number of points.
1. Pyrr is more expierenced(can edit posts better)
2. Doesn't post as much.
But there are some observations one should note, mainly the lack of real concrete thoughts, just one paragraph or so thoughts, which, while not bad, should be taken into consideration.
If this team were two Pyrr's, I wouldn't vote for them. But LSB is just a red dot on the scum radar, and I urge all of you to vote for them.
Also, for everyone saying, "Well we can vote for either team 1 or 7 since there related." :
Though I doubt the connection, if they were, then we should vote for the most likely one to be mafia, which is obviously Team 1.
Please everyone, vote for them.
|
Those were awesome posts and I wholeheartedly agree with you pandain, the only thing I don't agree with is you disavowing the link between the two teams. You really do shrug off the weird voting and behavior that kicks off day two by a lot. But like I said earlier I think they are both around equal in guilt I was just wondering if you can try to explain or further iterate why you think they aren't linked?
|
On September 25 2010 08:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Those were awesome posts and I wholeheartedly agree with you pandain, the only thing I don't agree with is you disavowing the link between the two teams. You really do shrug off the weird voting and behavior that kicks off day two by a lot. But like I said earlier I think they are both around equal in guilt I was just wondering if you can try to explain or further iterate why you think they aren't linked?
It just doesn't make sense to me. The main argument that says they are connected is from the big post LSB made, and yet even in that post he got mad at Meeple because he misquoted him. Why would meeple even misquote him in the first place?
I agree it seems out of place, him just suddenly defending meeple(sort of). But I don't see why people think theres definitely a connection, at most there might be one.
|
On September 25 2010 07:53 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 19:22 meeple wrote:On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote:That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red...
When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote:
I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people.
There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues.
flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote:
Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time.
I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan...
His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on.
I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote:
I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote:
Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too...
I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote:
I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote:
Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt...
Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away.
I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig...
Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler +The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6. That was an awesome game... but taken out of context you can't say that I need to act the same every game. Behavioral analysis can only go so far... I was a power role then, and as such I acted differently from when I'm a townie, as in this game. I haven't taken stands because as far as I'm concerned there's no stands to take... I haven't been really confident yet... although one is starting to develop. You seem to have developed quite the following... when you cast a vote you have a couple buddies that nod along and sheep with you. Are you confident enough in your analysis to say that you should be next when we flip green? Apparently you underestimate or misunderstand behavior analysis. There are plenty of stands to take. The only problem is, you just say "we need to do this" while not doing it. The other stands you probably don't want to take. Notice your partner ditching you here and going off to vote Team 1 again. That's the second switchup from Team 6 to Team 1 in two days. Oh, poor you. Haven't been confident yet. But you're starting to develop it? Well show me, because I don't see it. Whether town or mafia, good mafia players are able to influence people to their point of view. No matter how good an analyst you are, you aren't going to get anywhere if you can't convince anyone. That last question is irrelevant. If you lynched Ace for pegging both of your teams, you'd kill an innocent. Being wrong doesn't say anything about alignment. You should be lynching scummy people, not people who get innocents killed. Of course, getting an innocent killed is definitely grounds for investigation. By all means, I'll encourage people to analyze my votes if you flip green. I just don't think they'll find anything that scummy about me though. Judging by your vote for Team 6 and your lack of hostility against me, I'm going to guess you don't think I'm that scummy. If you're green, you might as well do an analysis on me before you die.
Jesus, you don't give me a lot of time to catch up now do you... calling split votes while I'm taking a nap. Team 6 isn't getting the votes, and yes it's possibly because we haven't done the analysis and pushed it... but at this point they're not in the picture so I'm gonna drop it for now and focus on getting my ass out of the fire.
unvote:
vote: Team 1
The only other team with votes on it other than us...
Well... its not just being wrong... you're actively leading the town down the wrong path... picking out minute details and blowing them into a huge thing when really they're meaningless. You're more of a hazard to the town and too smart of a player for that to be a coincedence. The arguments for my redness are ridiculous... mostly stemming from my lack of stands (A very common theme in my games if you've played with me before... I'm a cautious player and I think either you or Ace have gone after me for that exact reason before when I was town. My use of elipses... which is laughable if you've ever read my posts before...
If we go down... we will flip green and I hope people push for your lynch. It's not a coincidence that you're misinterpreting all my/our actions and twisting them into mafia schemes... You've played several games with me before and by now should know my playstyle well enough not to make these mistakes.
I'll do an analysis of you if I survive...
|
|
|
Okay, I've got a gut feeling that the reason why LSB laid that initial accusation on team 2 was because of Pyrrhuloxia's posts.
On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:
That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.
The "we" in this post indicates that to me.
On September 21 2010 09:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I honestly don't know why LSB is suspicious of team 2. He said "we" were somehow almost certain that team 2 was mafia so maybe he has another partner I don't know about, given that I posted earlier in the thread to say SR was being SR.
They're obviously not communicating however through PMs because Pyrrhuloxia said this afterwards and so LSB must've misunderstood Pyrr and this is when LSB begins backing off. It seems to me that LSB was just trying to take Pyrr's lead and screwed up. In my personal opinion, this nullifies any arguments that LSB's pressure on team 2 was scummy behaviour. His defenses are also quite unusual for a mafia where he states his mentality at the time as a defense.
Just as an additional example you can see that LSB is taking Pyrr's lead in this game:
On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote:
Um that’s not a defense. That’s a possible explanation. Pyrr explained it quite well
He agrees with his teammate and then refers to his explanation.
Finally although I dislike how they had defended themselves, they use separate methods of defending themselves which is also quite unusual for a mafia. LSB begins by stating misconceptions and Pyrrhuloxia attacks Incognito's reasoning. I find it odd for mafia to be so uncoordinated and I'd like to see our votes placed elsewhere. They have every reason in the world to work together as they're on the same team but you don't see that happening. I've noticed within my own team, there isn't as many PMs going around (maybe it's just to me D: ) and I find it very townie-like for them to post the way they do in relation to each other. In a normal mafia game, mafia wouldn't explicitly work together as they'd put suspicion on their partners but in this game as they're on the same team, that sort of barrier isn't there.
I'm going to see if the same sort of concept applies to team 7 and then choose who to vote from there.
|
I haven't had much time to do lengthy analysis and am about to head out the door. Hopefully when I come back tonight I can go more in depth.
My current thoughts are that Pyrr isn't playing in his normal red style (did i say this before? i think i did) and that i'm a fair bit more suspicious of team 7's postings. At this point since Pyrr/LSB ar trying to shovel suspicion back onto myself and my team, they are either townies that feel like we're "out to get them" or mafia trying to evade and throw back attacks as distraction. Skimming the thread i've seen a lot of scrutiny on meeple but not so much on his partner. Guys remember that we should look at all players on a team and not just one - we really can't afford to miss a lynch. Most glaring to me is that yellowink seems to be consistently ignoring questions about himself, as well as making posts that seem to be intentionally vague (for example: saying he's convinced about team 6 being mafia, but not saying why). Unlike teams 1 and 7, team 6 has hardly any analysis on them, so at this point i think it's weird that they're getting votes.
|
On September 25 2010 07:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
To start with, I apologize for my insane inactivity this game. Have spent a fair amount of my mornings/afternoons job hunting, then out with friends I haven't seen for months at night. Few peoples birthdays, as well as a family in the hospital leads to me being insanely busy (much more so than I was anticipating). I have managed to garner time and look over the debates on today's lynch and some of the arguments are fairly convincing so I shall trust you guys this once as I won't have the time to go more carefully into things till tomorrow at the earliest. As such to avoid being modkilled.
Vote team 7
Well I suppose I can't disprove this, though if he is mafia it could still be both true and a convenient excuse. At least he has showed up with something.
Obviously no one agrees with me on Team 6 atm except my beloved teammate so I have to
vote Team 7.
|
Night 2
The timer beeped again, and some people nervously pushed meeple and YellowInk towards the center of the room.
Everyone put their hands on their ears as the garburator churned meeple and YellowInk to pieces.
Silence again.
Everyone peeked cautiously over the edge of the hole.
Sorry guys...
The ones closer to the hole yelped as they were splashed by a chunky fluid.
Ohh, poor darlings, no matter, moving on now.
The door on the other side of the room opened up to another hallway.
Run along now, your doors are labeled by numbers.
+ Show Spoiler +meeple and YellowInk the townies have been garburated. ![[image loading]](http://www.charlesandhudson.com/archives/garbage-disposal.jpg)
|
|
|
@Pandain
He says:
Doesn't contribute, a clear "I repeat what someone says." Also tries to negate a plan by saying no one will follow it, which is one of the worst arguments someone can make as that can be applied to anything.
Foolishness had a swell summary of the reasons why no lynch was good. Rather than copy and paste that, I referred people to it in case they were skimming and caught my posts and not Foolishness's. His logic had persuaded me and I didn't have anything to add - maybe I would have came up with it if he hadn't first, I dunno. Why does it matter?
You say that it was a bad argument to say no one will follow it. Well, who ended up placing votes on who the medics should protect? No one. It makes more sense to just suggest. It's true that a list might produce some sort of deterrence but no one even ended up casting votes for a medic list, and even if we had the medic is under no obligation to agree with it. I don't think the person who proposed the list even casted any sort of formal vote for this medic straw poll.
---
As for the post about Bill Murray I don't really have anything to add if you don't like my explanation. He spent the game trying to get me killed and going against the no lynch plan and he was anti-town on both counts. In any case he didn't strike me as mafia when he started posting so I didn't vote for him.
---
On the post about SouthRawrea, there is really no justification for even suggesting its a slip up. I was talking about previous games and this is obvious. And it's not mind blowingly important but it was helpful to the minor discussion at hand. Period. Everything you are adding to it is WIFOM - this is why first people were using it to say we were both mafia and now are using it to say only I am mafia.
---
Yeah, bumatlarge's plan was bad - I didn't know that PMs weren't allowed. Luckilly I didn't send any before figuring that out. I have all the teams figured out now and I didn't when LSB and I first talked on IM about our thoughts.
---
"Apologizes for his partner, tries to wave it aside. Doesn't contribute."
Infundibulum just a few posts ago mentioned that people are focusing on meeple rather than both meeple and Yellowink so people are still not following this advice (supposedly). Personally, I've seen posts about yellowink and meeple but the point is that its an important idea. Nevertheless your conclusion admits that I am "not as scummy" as LSB but chalks this up to my experience and fewer posts (I think I've been posting quite a bit). You even admit "If this team were two Pyrr's" you wouldn't vote for us, which proves you are voting only because of LSB, which proves that I was making a necessary contribution by asking people to consider people in pairs when choosing lynch targets.
|
*Stares at all of you with a cold, deathly stare.*
Alright, whats done is done. At least they weren't blue. Now, some stuff I want happening
1. Foolishness, more analysis. I know what your capable of.
2. BC, really man? Step it up, you're like pro.
3.Team 2, start talking. SR has been doing well, haven't heard much from the other two.
|
Is it just me or is it hard to keep track of days? I'm not sure if it's just for this game but I seem to be oblivious of when the next day is coming.
|
On September 25 2010 11:07 SouthRawrea wrote:
Is it just me or is it hard to keep track of days? I'm not sure if it's just for this game but I seem to be oblivious of when the next day is coming.
Well I didn't know Day was about to end, I kinda figured Korynne would say "x hours left" or something when it got close.
|
Yeah I was about to try and squeeze another big post in or something and see if I could change the votes a bit but it ended quite abruptly.
|
On September 25 2010 11:07 SouthRawrea wrote:
Is it just me or is it hard to keep track of days? I'm not sure if it's just for this game but I seem to be oblivious of when the next day is coming.
you aren't alone - i had no idea it was ending this soon
|
Dang I'm good at being pro-mafia. I'm too disheartened to defend myself, so go ahead and lynch me. I will still be voting for Team 1, although nobody is in the clear at this point. This is our last chance to lynch a mafia, and nobody's really done a good job at looking pro-town at this point.
|
|
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 25 2010 17:53 Incognito wrote:
Dang I'm good at being pro-mafia. I'm too disheartened to defend myself, so go ahead and lynch me. I will still be voting for Team 1, although nobody is in the clear at this point. This is our last chance to lynch a mafia, and nobody's really done a good job at looking pro-town at this point.
Did you really just say that?
|
|
|
|
|
On September 25 2010 23:58 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2010 17:53 Incognito wrote:
Dang I'm good at being pro-mafia. I'm too disheartened to defend myself, so go ahead and lynch me. I will still be voting for Team 1, although nobody is in the clear at this point. This is our last chance to lynch a mafia, and nobody's really done a good job at looking pro-town at this point. Did you really just say that?
That looks like the type of post I made every time I got an innocent lynched in Mafia XII.
|
On September 26 2010 03:39 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2010 23:58 Foolishness wrote:On September 25 2010 17:53 Incognito wrote:
Dang I'm good at being pro-mafia. I'm too disheartened to defend myself, so go ahead and lynch me. I will still be voting for Team 1, although nobody is in the clear at this point. This is our last chance to lynch a mafia, and nobody's really done a good job at looking pro-town at this point. Did you really just say that? That looks like the type of post I made every time I got an innocent lynched in Mafia XII.
This was the best mafia game ever rofl
|
Night 2
The distinct scent of honey came from the hallways. Everyone stayed in their rooms, except Pandain and BrownBear, both drawn to the scent. They went outside their rooms, curious to investigate the scent.
Their door closed behind them.
Before they knew what was happening, a swarm of bees attacked them from all sides.
Everyone came out in the morning to find two swollen bodies in the hallway.
They followed the hallway down to another room, a double noose hung from the ceiling.
Good luck boys~
+ Show Spoiler +Pandain and BrownBear beed to death.
|
|
|
|
|
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T
|
Think I'm trying to psych you out, don't you...
|
My left eyebrow is raised incognito... are you some blue role? I really dont understand why you would start yappin like that as a green townie. I was gonna stick with my gut on team 1 but if you really want to throw yourself out there...
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T
You're guessing wrong again with your vote there by the way.
Consider a few things from my perspective (that I'm green).
You wanted to kill team 1. Team 1 voted to kill team 6 yesterday, and team 1 originally voted to kill team 2 the first day (before moving to No Lynch). After reviewing the votes and suspicions it doesn't seem to make much sense for any of the mafia to have voted for their teammate. Assuming that nobody is linked to team 1 (except for rastaban and I).
Your teammate revealed that you were either red or blue. Apparently you're claiming blue now. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for now and believe your claim, although I'm sure other people are going to have something to say about it.
Thus that leaves teams 2 and 6 as mafia.
Vote: team 6
|
i did? i need to stop posting on no sleep
|
On September 26 2010 10:51 Incognito wrote:
Oops
[Vote]Team 3
You just said you were going to vote for team 1, mind clarifying why you switched over without stating a reason.
I talked with Foolishness and while I am not sure I believe your claim I think team 6 is the safer lynch.
[Vote]Team 6
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 26 2010 11:59 Infundibulum wrote:
i did? i need to start posting on no sleep
fix'd
|
Really though, where did i say that? I feel dumb now
|
Okay, Incog is mafia.
1) Incog has good reason to kill Ace
Look at this post
On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:
Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies.
Ace is initially saying that he suspects the same people as Incognito.
However, at the same time, Ace notes that this is a really easy way to pick off townies. Incog has been taking little posts, and blowing them out of proportion.
In fact, when I confront Incognito about this, he just brushes it off, and ignores it.
On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote:Relevant section of Ace's post here: Show nested quote +The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact.
Notice that Incognito doesn’t even address this fact. When I later pressure him he still tries to shift the focus.
Incog has good reason to off Ace. Ace was the only one suspicious of his activities at that time.
2) Incog’s attack on me was engineered to persuade people who did not play with me in recent games
First of all, look at Incog’s attack of me. He pulls out my rookie game, and then says that I am the planner in the group. Of course, if you’ve played with me, you’d know that I am an extremely cautious player.
Indeed. Look at the final vote count for day 1 against me
bumatlarge Team 2
Divinek Team 2
Infundibulum: Team 8
YellowInk
SouthRawrea Team 2
The only person who wasn’t on team 2 (the team I was suspicious of), and team 8.
(Incog’s team) was YellowInk, and YellowInk has never played with me before. I actually find it quite strange that Team 2 seems to follow Team 8 around a lot
3) Incog Attacks Team 7 because they are the easier target.
Here is Incog’s initial attack of Team 7
On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote:A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia.
First of all, Pyrr did not defend YellowInk. He merely tried to find an explanation for YellowInk’s actions.
Secondly, this is completely an completely illigit accusation. Incog through a whole bunch of dirt on Me and Pyrr day one, and I find it really strange that he suffered a bout of ADHD, and decided to attack team 7 instead.
His basic premise was that I was supposedly mafia (which was wrong in the first place), and in turn, Team 7 must be mafia.
I believe the reason that he switched targets was that he thought that he couldn’t kill me, so hit picked someone that Foolishness would agreed on for a kill.
Let’s look at the voting stats
Incognito Team 8
Divinek Team 2
Foolishness Team 3
RebirthOfLeGenD Team 6
rastaban Team 3
bumatlarge Team 2
BloodyC0bbler Team 6
In reality, the only team who truly agreed with Incog was team 3, that’s because Incog chose the right person to attack.
Team 8 / Team 2 have been voting together.
Team 6 voted so that they could live
4) Killing Pandian/BB
On September 26 2010 10:51 Incognito wrote:
Oops
[Vote]Team 3
Wut? It looks like he’s trying to act like that he’s given up. The defeated townie act.
On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T
Medic claim. So Incog is either red or Medic.
I don’t know why Incog would do this.
Here’s a possible explanation. Maybe Incog thought Pandian and BB was medic. I’ll go through their posts and see if anything there might indicate that they looked like a blue role.
After finding out that Pandian/BB was that not the medic, he probably assumed that there was no medic.
In a normal 7 person game, there is a 50% chance of a medic. Decent odds, and Incog would probably outargue a counterclaim
This is an 8 person game, so it’s even harder for the mafia. Maybe Incog assumed that Korr wouldn’t put a medic because the odds were even lower.
But why would Incog pull such a desperate maneuver? Well, it’s Lylo. All Incog has to do is make sure that he doesn’t get killed and his scum buddy doesn’t get killed, and they win.
##Vote:Team 8
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On September 26 2010 12:45 Infundibulum wrote:
Really though, where did i say that? I feel dumb now
Doesn't really matter. Just look through all of BC's posts and tell me how he could possibly not be mafia.
|
On September 26 2010 11:02 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T You're guessing wrong again with your vote there by the way. Consider a few things from my perspective (that I'm green). You wanted to kill team 1. Team 1 voted to kill team 6 yesterday, and team 1 originally voted to kill team 2 the first day (before moving to No Lynch). After reviewing the votes and suspicions it doesn't seem to make much sense for any of the mafia to have voted for their teammate. Assuming that nobody is linked to team 1 (except for rastaban and I). Your teammate revealed that you were either red or blue. Apparently you're claiming blue now. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for now and believe your claim, although I'm sure other people are going to have something to say about it. Thus that leaves teams 2 and 6 as mafia. Vote: team 6
Although Team 6 is on my list of mafia. Holes are leaking through
BloodlyCobbler has a good excuse for being inactive
On September 25 2010 07:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
To start with, I apologize for my insane inactivity this game. Have spent a fair amount of my mornings/afternoons job hunting, then out with friends I haven't seen for months at night. Few peoples birthdays, as well as a family in the hospital leads to me being insanely busy (much more so than I was anticipating). I have managed to garner time and look over the debates on today's lynch and some of the arguments are fairly convincing so I shall trust you guys this once as I won't have the time to go more carefully into things till tomorrow at the earliest. As such to avoid being modkilled.
Vote team 7
I am am leaning twordes mafia for RebirthOfLeGenD, but I am absolutely sure that Incog is mafia. And I'd like to lynch the person that I feel is the most scummy first.
|
|
|
On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T
lol seriously? This is ballsy.
Alright guys shits on the line now anyway. I am the medic and I have been self protecting every night.
Lets analyze Incognito's posts this entire game and take into account what he must be thinking going into the final day. First off, today is lylo and I am seeing incog looking at this as an end game situation and trying to end it on a balls deep move. Yesterday he was the first person to divert the lynch train from team 1 to team 7 which seemed really random considering how intense he was about them the previous day. Then when the day ended in an unfavorable lynch he ended emo mode. A mode I have seen before.
On September 25 2010 17:53 Incognito wrote:
Dang I'm good at being pro-mafia. I'm too disheartened to defend myself, so go ahead and lynch me. I will still be voting for Team 1, although nobody is in the clear at this point. This is our last chance to lynch a mafia, and nobody's really done a good job at looking pro-town at this point.
Pyrr actually mentions it later in this thread. In mafia XII (I believe?) me and pyrrhuloxia were mafia and everyday pyrr would mislead the town to a bad lynch and apologize profusely and say he understands if we want to lynch him THEN just kept leading the down astray. It was a beautiful play by him and won us the game. I feel like hes trying to add to our empathy for him by claiming medic because he didn't believe we actually had one. Now hes trying to force us to mislynch in a lylo situation.
Team 8 is mafia from incognitos suspect mislynches all the way up to his fake claim of being medic when we are in a lylo situation. If you guys honestly feel its necessary I can do a full analysis on team 8. But honestly think this is more than enough information to go on. Infundi has been playing the lurker mafia and Incognito has been leading us astray the entire game culminating in this final coup de grace.
Vote: Team 8
|
On September 26 2010 12:53 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2010 12:45 Infundibulum wrote:
Really though, where did i say that? I feel dumb now Doesn't really matter. Just look through all of BC's posts and tell me how he could possibly not be mafia.
BC is very inactive. When BC has been mafia in past game he does this inactive thing too, but eventually he will make 1 or 2 really long analysis posts that try to throw the town off while making them say "only a townie would write such long posts!". I haven't seen him do that this game, but that's probably because he hasn't needed to - we've been pretty far off the fucking track this game so a silent mafia makes more sense in my mind. Why would BC need to distract the town when we're all going after team 7, who were townies? I agree that BC has not been playing in a pro town manner but i don't know if it's enough to make me say that he's 100% mafia for sure.
What do you think about Rebirthoflegend, his partner? I think he's been contributing a fair bit more than BC,On the first day where he discussed the merits of No Lynching, and supported incognito's "medic list" against your criticism. Later, he puts out analysis on LSB, Pyrr, meeple and Yellowink. So i think generally he's been trying to help, isn't afraid to take a stand, and not afraid of being visible.
However one thing I noticed is that early on BC and RoL vote for lynching Foolishness and Rastaban first. I can't help but wonder if you are harboring some grudge because of this? On the topic of your team, your partner is playing just as badly as BC, by the way, which has been really unsettling all game to me. I've also been borderline on you, but the fact that you're willing to trust our medic claim speaks volumes to me.
---
I notice that Incog seems to be taking a lot of heat for pushing team 7. But so did many other players, including Foolishness and SouthRawrea and Pandain and RebirthofLegend - it was NOT a solitary team 8 effort AT ALL, but I expect to see some people (mafia) misconstruing it that way, as LSB is doing in the posts previous to this.
As I predicted, Team 1 is coming out of the woodwork to push the lynch target onto us. Not surprising, when you think about the spotlight my team ended up in. LSB is pulling an "Incognito pushed a lynch on a green, therefore he is mafia!" move and I sincerely hope none of you are willing to fall for that. I'm probably going to have to defend Incog in his stead since i think he gave up on this game. But he might be back, I am not sure.
As a summary I agree with you that BC is playing like a turd, which is unfortunate. However RoL has been very open and pro town in my view, so I don't want to lynch team 6 because of this. I would rather lynch team 1.
|
Ah crud, accidentally hit 'post' before I was done. I was just going to add that I thought it was amusing just how under the radar team 2 has been for the longest time and that if they are red I will shit brix.
|
And shit, Rebirthoflegend decides to go ahead and make me revoke my judgements of his character.
should have refreshed before post!
|
I understand that a lot of teams were advocating yesterdays lynch, I was even among them. The thing I am pointing out is why incognito started that? It is a really strange shift and on top of that you guys fake claim medic and are trying to get us to lynch foolishness it just really strange to me.
At the end of the day this is basically going to come down to one of two things. Lynch team 6 because you don't believe me, or lynch team 8 because you don't believe them. We can worry about who is after that if we are here tomorrow. So for now pick your sides. This should really let us figure out who the remaining mafia is considering how strong this power play is from team 8.
|
O god.... I knew bees would be the ones that would kill me one day!
Gl hf everyone! n.n
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
How about we just let bygones be bygones and all vote for team 2 eh?
|
On September 26 2010 12:52 LSB wrote:Okay, Incog is mafia. 1) Incog has good reason to kill AceLook at this post Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:
Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Ace is initially saying that he suspects the same people as Incognito. However, at the same time, Ace notes that this is a really easy way to pick off townies. Incog has been taking little posts, and blowing them out of proportion. In fact, when I confront Incognito about this, he just brushes it off, and ignores it. Show nested quote +On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote:Relevant section of Ace's post here: The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact. Notice that Incognito doesn’t even address this fact. When I later pressure him he still tries to shift the focus. Incog has good reason to off Ace. Ace was the only one suspicious of his activities at that time.
Every mafia team has a good reason to kill Ace: because he's Ace. I don't even think Ace was suspicious of Incog at that point. He said that incog had pinned your team also, which means that Ace was suspicious you, not Incog.
2) Incog’s attack on me was engineered to persuade people who did not play with me in recent gamesFirst of all, look at Incog’s attack of me. He pulls out my rookie game, and then says that I am the planner in the group. Of course, if you’ve played with me, you’d know that I am an extremely cautious player. Indeed. Look at the final vote count for day 1 against me Show nested quote + bumatlarge Team 2
Divinek Team 2
Infundibulum: Team 8
YellowInk
SouthRawrea Team 2 The only person who wasn’t on team 2 (the team I was suspicious of), and team 8. (Incog’s team) was YellowInk, and YellowInk has never played with me before. I actually find it quite strange that Team 2 seems to follow Team 8 around a lot
All Incog knows about you is what i told him: you were townie in flamewheels game and came up with a plan, so as a mafia I hit you because of it. That's where he got the "lsb is a planner" thing from. My memory is fuzzy so maybe it wasn't solely your plan - i don't know.
3) Incog Attacks Team 7 because they are the easier target.Here is Incog’s initial attack of Team 7 Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote:A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. First of all, Pyrr did not defend YellowInk. He merely tried to find an explanation for YellowInk’s actions. Secondly, this is completely an completely illigit accusation. Incog through a whole bunch of dirt on Me and Pyrr day one, and I find it really strange that he suffered a bout of ADHD, and decided to attack team 7 instead. His basic premise was that I was supposedly mafia (which was wrong in the first place), and in turn, Team 7 must be mafia. I believe the reason that he switched targets was that he thought that he couldn’t kill me, so hit picked someone that Foolishness would agreed on for a kill. Let’s look at the voting stats Show nested quote +
Incognito Team 8
Divinek Team 2
Foolishness Team 3
RebirthOfLeGenD Team 6
rastaban Team 3
bumatlarge Team 2
BloodyC0bbler Team 6
In reality, the only team who truly agreed with Incog was team 3, that’s because Incog chose the right person to attack. Team 8 / Team 2 have been voting together. Team 6 voted so that they could live
At that point Pyrr, not you, had alleviated some of the suspicion on your team. I had talked with Incog about it and it was kind of my fault that we switched to working on analyzing team 7, mostly because I felt Pyrr wasn't playing in his normal red meta.
Again, you are painting the team 7 lynch as though it was solely a team 8 effort. It wasn't. several other players from various teams contributed analysis and supported the lynch.
By the way, this is where you've basically played your hand and said that you think teams 2 and 8 are mafia, though somewhat subtly.
4) Killing Pandian/BBWut? It looks like he’s trying to act like that he’s given up. The defeated townie act. Show nested quote +On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T Medic claim. So Incog is either red or Medic. I don’t know why Incog would do this. Here’s a possible explanation. Maybe Incog thought Pandian and BB was medic. I’ll go through their posts and see if anything there might indicate that they looked like a blue role. After finding out that Pandian/BB was that not the medic, he probably assumed that there was no medic. In a normal 7 person game, there is a 50% chance of a medic. Decent odds, and Incog would probably outargue a counterclaim This is an 8 person game, so it’s even harder for the mafia. Maybe Incog assumed that Korr wouldn’t put a medic because the odds were even lower. But why would Incog pull such a desperate maneuver? Well, it’s Lylo. All Incog has to do is make sure that he doesn’t get killed and his scum buddy doesn’t get killed, and they win.##Vote:Team 8
Here's the nail in the coffin, brother. So far none of what you have provided really amounts to analysis. It is speculation at best. Here you are speculating that "incognito thought pandain and bb was medic."
This is absolutely retarded. From the mafia perspective, they don't know if there's a medic or a dt or ANY blue roles in this game. Why, then, would the mafia blue snipe? No, they would kill players like Ace/BM.
Night 2 I would guess that Pandain and BB were killed because they didn't vote Day 2. Therefore eliminating them reveals no information from votelists, which is a strong move. Go back and read their posts, and it's obvious they are green - for example, Pandain is pretty great at telegraphing when he has a role (not necessarily a bad thing), and this game he was telegraphing "I'm town!"
This conjecture of yours is nothing but an improbable, stretched fantasy that hinges on our team not only being mafia but also being really stupid.
In fact, there would be no reason for mafia to fake claim medic at this point where it's LyLo. Here why:
1. the optimal mafia strategy at this point in the game is to pin suspicion on a vocal person who's been wrong in the past day or 2. This is because the town is sick of missing their lynches. They want to see red blood, god damnit, and who better than the guy that's been steadfastly going down the wrong trail? All the mafia need to do is goad the town into doing this, which is what you and RoL are trying to do. Note that I predicted this move earlier in the thread - it's very obvious.
2. Mafia claiming medic first is really risky because they don't know whether there's a medic or not. In a LyLo situation, it's the town that's at risk and not the mafia. There's no reason for the mafia to suddenly stop playing it safe and go balls out unless they want to "win with style." neither Incog nor I is that kind of player (granted that's a bit of wifom, but if you've played any games with either of us you should know that).
|
On September 26 2010 14:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I understand that a lot of teams were advocating yesterdays lynch, I was even among them. The thing I am pointing out is why incognito started that? It is a really strange shift and on top of that you guys fake claim medic and are trying to get us to lynch foolishness it just really strange to me.
At the end of the day this is basically going to come down to one of two things. Lynch team 6 because you don't believe me, or lynch team 8 because you don't believe them. We can worry about who is after that if we are here tomorrow. So for now pick your sides. This should really let us figure out who the remaining mafia is considering how strong this power play is from team 8.
1. I don't think we really started. IIRC there was murmurs among the town of team 7 playing funky during day 1. it didn't just come out of nowhere day 2. i have a shit memory and coud be wrong about this though.
2. We're not trying to get you to lynch Foolishness... did you write the wrong name or something? in fact at this point I think
3. Honestly though i'm surprised you counter claimed medic. There was no need for you to play that card so quickly. Generally the mafia can wait and say that the lack of a counterclaim indicates that the claimer is lying. For example, you could have said "Incog is mafia and trying to squirm away from inevitable lynch by claiming medic!", all without claiming yourself. But by counterclaiming you pretty much play out your whole hand.
----
Fun Fact™ for those who can't decide who's telling the truth: why do you think it was me who asked Korynne if the medic/protected person gets a PM notification? Don't you think that RoL, masquerading as the eager medic, would have wanted to know this important information?
|
whoa not sure what happened in number 2. i don't even remember what i was going to say with that second half-sentence
|
in fact disregard point 2 entirely.. i didn't see that Incog voted for team 3 lol
|
We cant split the vote three ways here, we have to be really decisive, so I suggest everyone setting their priorities on two teams. Giving different options for people you are torn between, only takes a little stealth nudge from a mafia to win them the game.
I didn't know who to vote for... so I went through votes and accusations and tried to pick apart what combinations are unlikely.
Teams 1 and 2 = unlikely
the entire team 2 squad voted them on the first day, and we haven't been friends ever since. Would be pretty ballsy of us with 2 other individuals on that boat.
Teams 1 and 3 = VERY LIKELY
The link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty clear. I don't think it makes much of a difference between the two. We should be considering either team 6 or 7 instead, and not team 1.
If you really think LSB is mafia, you would vote no lynch, and spend the next ~36 hours convincing the town with solid analysis and not "I'm 100% positive LSB/Pyrry are mafia".
They have never gunned for each other, and tend not to make too much contact otherwise.
They both opted for a no lynch, and even though the thought behind it was sound, you would gun for it as mafia if people starting stacking votes on your buddies.
Teams 1 and 6 = Unlikely
Pyr initiates a vote that almost gains momentum, and general FoS from LSB. Team 6 doesnt seem to like them either.
Teams 1 and 8 = kinda-unlikely
Pyr LSB initiates and then votes for them. Not sure if it could be mafia mind games. Now infundi puts his lylo vote on them.
team 2 and 3 = likely
I dont think anyone on my team has mentioned them, and foolishness gave a few direct criticisms, which is decent mafia blending that cant really be called scummy. And even as foolishness accused us now as team 6 cohorts, its not like it would matter who he accuses at LYLO as long as we dont get lynched now.
teams 2 and 6 = likely
we both voted together and I dont think we really confronted them or them to us.
teams 2 and 8 = likely
same thing, man we should get on the ball with all these accusations and voting people more
teams 3 and 6 = unlikely
foolish pushing a fellow mafia team as lylo? No real reason to.
teams 3 and 8 = mensamensa
dont see much but do see some,
teams 6 and 8 = TeeHee
that would be funny, but i dont see it out of the realm of possibility.
What piques me the most is Team 1's connections. It may seem like putting teams as 'likely' partners would label them as strong reds, but i think it does the opposite. It gives them an open townie mind frame, no strings attached mentality. In fact the if youve got that one 'likely' connection and no others, that might be pretty damning. Which is what team 1 and 3 has in my book. I think a team1 lynch would not only break us out of lylo, it would give us a solid lead. And foolish, while straining from taking out the chain-saw, does have some sort of weedwhacker for team 1. That, the no-lynch spec ops mission and cut ties from every other team makes me want to trust my gut on this. I've had it in for team 1 this whole game, and I see no reason to stop now. That and I can eliminate all team 2 connections, because I swear on a bear, promises on porpoises, agreement on C-ment, truth of my tooth, and the virginity of my future first born daughter that I am townie.
##vote team 1
|
On September 26 2010 15:18 Infundibulum wrote:
In fact, there would be no reason for mafia to fake claim medic at this point where it's LyLo. Here why:
1. the optimal mafia strategy at this point in the game is to pin suspicion on a vocal person who's been wrong in the past day or 2. This is because the town is sick of missing their lynches. They want to see red blood, god damnit, and who better than the guy that's been steadfastly going down the wrong trail? All the mafia need to do is goad the town into doing this, which is what you and RoL are trying to do. Note that I predicted this move earlier in the thread - it's very obvious.
I agree about that the mafia would try to push active/suspicious townie but a good townie just keeps analyzing and pushing and going with it. He pulled the same exact shit pyrrhuloxia did in XII and apologizes and "understands" if we want to lynch him. It is such a scum tell. Why do you feel the need to apologize and then you talk about us lynching you as if its not going to result in the end of the game if he IS NOT mafia. Its just such a ploy for town empathy.
2. Mafia claiming medic first is really risky because they don't know whether there's a medic or not. In a LyLo situation, it's the town that's at risk and not the mafia. There's no reason for the mafia to suddenly stop playing it safe and go balls out unless they want to "win with style." neither Incog nor I is that kind of player (granted that's a bit of wifom, but if you've played any games with either of us you should know that).
Its not that risky at all. In such a situation what is the point in claiming? Its to try and hold the idea that you are town so we don't kill you. Seriously, give me one reason why claiming adds to the town at that point? It just strikes me completely suspicious its not like you are a providing info on who we must lynch like a DT could. Claiming medic serves no purpose except to try to keep yourself alive which any decent arguing can do when you are truly innocent at least in this situation where the town NEEDS to hit that lynch. Now if there is a counterclaim the shit can hit the fan, but as mafia you might be able to just add enough chaos for a bad decision to be made and capitalize on it.
|
So my intuition after our mislynch yesterday was that one of Incog/Infundi and Foolishness/Rastaban was mafia. I suppose maybe both, but BC has also been suspicious.
I suppose BC's explanation is probably true. It doesn't really clear him in anyway but it isn't a good enough reason to vote for him in lylo, especially when RoL has been very active when he's always hidden when mafia to my knowledge (though he's usually rather inactive when green as well).
Then infundi/incog and RoL/BC both show up and claim medic. Lol.
My initial reaction favors Team 6. It would fit with RoL's behavior since I haven't seen him blue and he would probably have to be more active to make up for BC's absence and avoid lynch for suspicious inactivity like I was pushing. I've seen a lot of games with lurker mafia RoL and bored townie RoL but I don't think I've seen blue RoL and I suppose this could be it.
Meanwhile, the following incognito posts give me almost-too-obvious mafia vibes:
On September 25 2010 17:53 Incognito wrote:
Dang I'm good at being pro-mafia. I'm too disheartened to defend myself, so go ahead and lynch me. I will still be voting for Team 1, although nobody is in the clear at this point. This is our last chance to lynch a mafia, and nobody's really done a good job at looking pro-town at this point.
On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T
These "lol sorry I fucked up guys" and "woe is me" posts aren't really necessary - Team 7 was lynched by a huge part of the town, I even changed my vote to them at the last minute in case people kept switching to us. So why is he worried we would pin it on him? Again with the protection choices he mentions, I don't get why he wouldn't prot himself both times. Either way, though, if he gets it wrong its not like he wasn't thinking; it's just unlucky. It doesn't seem like the authentic mindset to me.
To some extent this is all wifom and the posts from RoL/BC and Infundi/Incog after claiming are somewhat useless, so I think voting records are something to consider carefully and give more weight.
I guess it's down to LSB and I and whoever the other innocent team is to pick between 8 and 6 (I believe the other innocent team is Team 3 and will get to that at the end; I'm not sure though so please don't write us off if you are innocent, Team 2).
voting:
Day 1:
infundibulum votes Team 1 (green)
incognito votes Team 7 (green)
BC votes Team 3 (???)
RoL votes no lynch (pro-town)
Day 2:
infundibulum does not vote
incognito, RoL, BC all vote Team 7 (green)
Incognito was first voter for Team 7, there was no need for any mafia votes, really, because the voting was between Team 1 (green) and Team 7 (green). LSB and I were the only ones voting for BC/RoL (???). RoL also pushes for us to be lynched.
Day 3:
incog Team 3 (???)
RoL Team 8 (???)
(Notice incog and bc have both voted Team 3... since we know one of those teams is mafia, it probably means Team 3 is innocent - certainly a few points for them anyway)
At the same time, voting doesn't tell us too much. If I'm right that Team 3 is innocent then both medic claiming teams have voted for exclusively innocent teams (maybe both are mafia? lol see spoiler for my musings on that). Still I am more comfortable voting Team 8 because they led the Team 7 lynch with ehh arguments and maybe Team 3 is mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +
WEIRD NOTE: Is there any benefit to both mafia teams claiming medic? Now this might sound LOL, but I just had a weird thought where 6 and 8 could be mafia and both claim medic. If there is no 3rd medic than town would perhaps split their votes among them and maybe the two mafia teams could switch their votes at the last minute... Or if there was a third medic the vote could maybe split three ways. Lol no thats stupid but it is weird that this goes down and votes start getting put on LSB and I? So there is some sort of mind fuck going on.
If team 6 is mafia, who would their teammate be?
2? I don't know of a connection here, which could be great evidence of a connection.
3? Foolishness is pushing their lynch now. Unlikely.
If team 8 is mafia who would their teammate be?
2? This early post seems like an odd defense:
On September 21 2010 04:54 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote:There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me.
Infundibulum says bad things about each player (drunk, stupid, and then with SR I guess it was a good thing since BB pointed out that it was a confusing statement that said nothing while Infun calls it a talk about merits), but then concludes they aren't suspicious, thus subtly pushing them away without putting them in danger.
On September 26 2010 11:00 bumatlarge wrote:
My left eyebrow is raised incognito... are you some blue role? I really dont understand why you would start yappin like that as a green townie. I was gonna stick with my gut on team 1 but if you really want to throw yourself out there...
This post is really weird. Incog claims medic. Pretty clearly. But then bumatlarge reacts as if he is just hinting. It could be that they were planning a claim where bum would prod incog to claim first or something. Also weird that he suggests incog claiming would make him change his vote from me and he votes for me anyway (his vote for me makes no sense I'll get to that in a next post).
3? I kind of felt something between 2 and 3 but really can't name anything concrete. Of course maybe the confusion of bumatlarge should be taken as evidence that nothing was planned between them and I should be getting weirded out by Foolishness putting his hands in the air and jokingly asking for a Team 2 lynch.
So it looks like I am thinking 2 is mafia both ways. So I suppose I could just vote Team 2, but now Team 2 is following the same logic and voting for me, which makes no sense to me, so I think we should keep it to the 2 we know 1 of is mafia.
Y'all are mofos for making me stay up to figure this shit out.
vote Team 8
|
On September 26 2010 16:29 bumatlarge wrote:We cant split the vote three ways here, we have to be really decisive, so I suggest everyone setting their priorities on two teams. Giving different options for people you are torn between, only takes a little stealth nudge from a mafia to win them the game. I didn't know who to vote for... so I went through votes and accusations and tried to pick apart what combinations are unlikely. Teams 1 and 2 = unlikely the entire team 2 squad voted them on the first day, and we haven't been friends ever since. Would be pretty ballsy of us with 2 other individuals on that boat. Teams 1 and 3 = VERY LIKELY Show nested quote +The link between teams 1 and 7 is pretty clear. I don't think it makes much of a difference between the two. We should be considering either team 6 or 7 instead, and not team 1. Show nested quote +If you really think LSB is mafia, you would vote no lynch, and spend the next ~36 hours convincing the town with solid analysis and not "I'm 100% positive LSB/Pyrry are mafia". They have never gunned for each other, and tend not to make too much contact otherwise. They both opted for a no lynch, and even though the thought behind it was sound, you would gun for it as mafia if people starting stacking votes on your buddies. Teams 1 and 6 = Unlikely Pyr initiates a vote that almost gains momentum, and general FoS from LSB. Team 6 doesnt seem to like them either. Teams 1 and 8 = kinda-unlikely Pyr LSB initiates and then votes for them. Not sure if it could be mafia mind games. Now infundi puts his lylo vote on them. team 2 and 3 = likely I dont think anyone on my team has mentioned them, and foolishness gave a few direct criticisms, which is decent mafia blending that cant really be called scummy. And even as foolishness accused us now as team 6 cohorts, its not like it would matter who he accuses at LYLO as long as we dont get lynched now. teams 2 and 6 = likely we both voted together and I dont think we really confronted them or them to us. teams 2 and 8 = likely same thing, man we should get on the ball with all these accusations and voting people more teams 3 and 6 = unlikely foolish pushing a fellow mafia team as lylo? No real reason to. teams 3 and 8 = mensamensa dont see much but do see some, teams 6 and 8 = TeeHee that would be funny, but i dont see it out of the realm of possibility. What piques me the most is Team 1's connections. It may seem like putting teams as 'likely' partners would label them as strong reds, but i think it does the opposite. It gives them an open townie mind frame, no strings attached mentality. In fact the if youve got that one 'likely' connection and no others, that might be pretty damning. Which is what team 1 and 3 has in my book. I think a team1 lynch would not only break us out of lylo, it would give us a solid lead. And foolish, while straining from taking out the chain-saw, does have some sort of weedwhacker for team 1. That, the no-lynch spec ops mission and cut ties from every other team makes me want to trust my gut on this. I've had it in for team 1 this whole game, and I see no reason to stop now. That and I can eliminate all team 2 connections, because I swear on a bear, promises on porpoises, agreement on C-ment, truth of my tooth, and the virginity of my future first born daughter that I am townie. ##vote team 1
What we know 100%:
Either Team 6 or Team 8 is mafia.
What you conclude:
Team 1 is mafia. Team 1 is tied up with Team 3 so they are probably mafia scum buddies.
What you vote:
Team 1.
Please try again.
|
On September 26 2010 11:02 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T You're guessing wrong again with your vote there by the way. Consider a few things from my perspective (that I'm green). You wanted to kill team 1. Team 1 voted to kill team 6 yesterday, and team 1 originally voted to kill team 2 the first day (before moving to No Lynch). After reviewing the votes and suspicions it doesn't seem to make much sense for any of the mafia to have voted for their teammate. Assuming that nobody is linked to team 1 (except for rastaban and I). Your teammate revealed that you were either red or blue. Apparently you're claiming blue now. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for now and believe your claim, although I'm sure other people are going to have something to say about it. Thus that leaves teams 2 and 6 as mafia. Vote: team 6
It's weird, looking at the votes I feel stronger that you are more innocent than team 2 than I feel team 6 is more innocent than team 8.
|
Lololololol really? Mafia giving themselves away so quickly at this point in time is so unnecessary that its puzzling.
I was gonna vote Team 1 instead of Team 6, since I'd rather lynch on some substance than pure inactivity, but there's a medic counterclaim. I know that's a lie obviously. And if you compare my posting to RoL's posting, it's clear who's scum here. I have pretty much been the driving force behind this game. Without me town has little to no information. There's no incentive for me to be this aggressive in a game where mafia can sit back and let the town rot. I've posted the most this game. My analysis showed the most dedication to the game out of everyone. As mafia it would have been so easy for me to agree with everyone and say we need more information and complain about the lack of information while providing none myself. Instead, I took a stand and attempted to lead the town when nobody was willing to take that job. Yes, its true that I was wrong on the last lynch. But every townie is going to be wrong at some point. Mislynching (once) doesn't make me automafia. And one person's vote doesn't make a lynch.
RoL and BC, on the other hand, have been inactive the whole game. There is nothing pro-town that has redeeming value for Team 6. RoL's "analysis" just mimics whatever was already said. BC has been almost completely inactive the entire game. RoL claims he self protected twice in a row (rofl?) which makes almost no sense. RoL's medic claim doesn't fit. Its extremely scummy.
Originally, I was going to post to switch my vote to Team 1, since I'd prefer to lynch someone concretely scummy as opposed to just an inactive, but that counterclaim does it for me. To me, its a 100% red. No reason to save a fake claiming lurker medic.
***
There is no "sudden" switch to Team 7. I pointed out Team 7 midway through day 1, and I also switched votes to Team 7 before the deadline on day 1. I've been suspicious of Team 7 almost from the beginning of this game. Why did I switch to Team 7? On day 1, Foolishness said he wasn't sold on Team 1, but would gladly lynch Team 7. Since I was confident that they both were mafia, I gladly switched to Team 7 if it meant something would get done. Given my link between Team 1 and Team 7, I figured Team 1 == Team 7 in terms of which one to lynch. Nothing suspicious about a lynch I supported from half a day prior.
I did not apologize profusely. A post expressing discouragement is not a scum tell. If you said it is a psychological tool, I could agree, but this definitely says nothing either way. If you're the only person who is actively trying to help the town win and you've invested so much time into the game then you find out you're wrong, its a big blow. As for the medic claim, it was a sort of end game comments before the game ends sort of thing. Really, I'm sad I got it down to two prots both nights and missed on both. My recent string of posts doesn't really say anything about my alignment. I really didn't expect someone to come out and counterclaim me. I expected it to be the end and that I'd just follow the hand motions until the end of the day where we lost.
Like I said before, analyze me all you want. You won't find anything scummy about me. Both of our track records speak for themselves. Your medic claim is coming straight out of the blue.
Think about the medic prots from my point of view. Day 1. I'm obviously not protecting teams 1/7. Nobody wants to kill Team 2 or 6 because they're inactive. Foolishness is acting a bit weird and not contributing too much. Pandain/BB don't really make an impression. Its down to Ace/me. If I die, the thread is pretty much dead, so I figure theres much more to lose if I die. Team 6's claim of self-prot isn't really all that pro-town. All this self-protting to protect the only 100% townie is BS. There's no reason why mafia want to kill team 6. They've done nothing and come under suspicion from Team 1/7. No incentive for the mafia to kill them. Self-prot doesn't make sense here.
Day 2. Two dead townies. From my point of view, this means nobody is in the clear. I still suspected Team 1, and started to get some weird vibes from Team 3. Look back at my posts to see that I was a bit surprised at Foolishness's relatively weak analysis of meeple. Given that Day 1 Foolishness would agree to lynch team 7 but not Team 1, I was beginning to worry that it was a ploy to divert attention off Team 1. Team 6 is still suspicious and isn't going to draw any mafia hits. Mafia really doesn't have to kill me, as given the nature of towns, its easy to get the head of a mislynch lynched. So its between Team 2 and 5. At this point, the clear choice for hit should be team 5. I would've protted them if I had read their posts thoroughly, but was disconcerted by their lack of posting by the time I had pointed it out previous to the end of the lynch. By this time, I was already quitting on the game, so in haste I picked team 2.
I'd like Team 6 to explain their choices for medic prots. I really don't think anyone would have cared if an inactive scummy medic team who was under suspicion died. I also don't think any mafia would have cared to hit them. Maybe you're just selfish, but this reeks of scummy play. Nothing pro-town about that at all.
From my point of view, I have pretty solid medic prot choices. A little off, but a lot better than what Team 6 claims to have done.
***
Something is interesting here. Foolishness accuses me as mafia halfway through the game, makes another posts where he accuses me of being mafia using a bunch of words starting with "i", and says he's going to push for my lynch if meeple flips green. But he hasn't done it yet. If he were mafia, it would be relatively easy to push my lynch right now. But it isn't happening.
***
Looking back, there's no reason for Foolishness to divert attention from Team 1 to Team 7. We know that one of RoL/me is mafia. If Foolishness is mafia, Team 1/7 are innocent. Foolishness as mafia has no reason to want Team 7 lynched instead of team 1, given that I had posted a lot of analysis on Team 1 and none on Team 7 (just a call out). No reason for him to go out of his way to support the lynch of a player with no analysis yet when Team 1 was a fine option. The only reason that is plausible is that Foolishness is town and genuinely thought Team 7 to be more scummy than Team 1 based on his own analysis. Foolishness is Town. Its down to Team 1/2/6.
|
1) So you are now accusing me of mafia?
Ace would be a horrible lynch by me. He was the one who noticed that there was something fishy in the bandwagon. And if I was mafia, I'd kill Incog to give myself some breathing room.
Ace's death only benifits Incog
2) Great, so a "I forgot how LSB played" defense
3) So are you saying that you lynched team seven even though you thought that I was town?
That is increadibly dumb.
Your basic argument boils down to "Team 1 is mafia so Team 7 is mafia", and you guys doubt yourself. Why did you still press for the lynch?
That would be dumb. Your obviously making up stuff now, trying any excuse that would work
And I'm not going to flat out switch my attack to team two. Team two has been following around Incog for some strange reason.
The Difference Between Me and You is that I don't go for the easy targets. I go for the targets that are scum
4) You say that my attack on you is speculation, but all you respond is more speculation. You start speculating on what would the mafia do.
(Also responds to this)
+ Show Spoiler +I was gonna vote Team 1 instead of Team 6, since I'd rather lynch on some substance than pure inactivity, but there's a medic counterclaim. I know that's a lie obviously. And if you compare my posting to RoL's posting, it's clear who's scum here. I have pretty much been the driving force behind this game. Without me town has little to no information. There's no incentive for me to be this aggressive in a game where mafia can sit back and let the town rot. I've posted the most this game. My analysis showed the most dedication to the game out of everyone. As mafia it would have been so easy for me to agree with everyone and say we need more information and complain about the lack of information while providing none myself. Instead, I took a stand and attempted to lead the town when nobody was willing to take that job. Yes, its true that I was wrong on the last lynch. But every townie is going to be wrong at some point. Mislynching (once) doesn't make me automafia. And one person's vote doesn't make a lynch.
Sure, if this was a larger game, it would seem suspicious if we go after someone who misses a lynch. But this is Micro Mafia. All mafia has to go is get two mislynches and they win.
From the get go, we see that Incog has targeted two townies, me and team 7. If we let Incog complete his task, they win.
Activity doesn't mean anything. All it means is that someone likes playing mafia a bit more than the others. On the other hand, pushing for two lynchs, and I know both of us are town, is extremely suspicious.
There is no "sudden" switch to Team 7. I pointed out Team 7 midway through day 1, and I also switched votes to Team 7 before the deadline on day 1. I've been suspicious of Team 7 almost from the beginning of this game. Why did I switch to Team 7? On day 1, Foolishness said he wasn't sold on Team 1, but would gladly lynch Team 7. Since I was confident that they both were mafia, I gladly switched to Team 7 if it meant something would get done. Given my link between Team 1 and Team 7, I figured Team 1 == Team 7 in terms of which one to lynch. Nothing suspicious about a lynch I supported from half a day prior.
Exactly, now you admit to my accusation. You switch to team 7 because it’s the easier, fatter target, rather than the one you believe in.
|
Medic situation. It boils down to team 6 vrs team 8 right now. Don’t try to shift the focus. If there are two medic claims, one is blue, the other is red.
Either that or there is a dumb townie.
This is by far the Most important development in the game
On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T
Vrs
On September 26 2010 14:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote:
Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times.
Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T lol seriously? This is ballsy. Alright guys shits on the line now anyway. I am the medic and I have been self protecting every night.
So we really have to figure out which person is probably the medic.
On September 26 2010 15:28 Infundibulum wrote:
3. Honestly though i'm surprised you counter claimed medic. There was no need for you to play that card so quickly. Generally the mafia can wait and say that the lack of a counterclaim indicates that the claimer is lying. For example, you could have said "Incog is mafia and trying to squirm away from inevitable lynch by claiming medic!", all without claiming yourself. But by counterclaiming you pretty much play out your whole hand.
This is a weird defense. Infun is saying that the medic should be like “Oh look there is no counterclaim, obviously infun is medic!”
That’s just dumb. The “Pointing out there is no counterclaim” is an incredibly stupid argument for a medic to rely on when straight out counterclaim is so much more stronger.
This convinces me that Infun is mafia
Fun Fact™ for those who can't decide who's telling the truth: why do you think it was me who asked Korynne if the medic/protected person gets a PM notification? Don't you think that RoL, masquerading as the eager medic, would have wanted to know this important information?
Now that Infun pointed this out, I don’t think trying to read if Team 8 is medic is a good idea. Team 8 has probably been planning this claim for a while, planting information for a future defence.
+ Show Spoiler +Anyone else wana claim medic?
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Okay so let's see. One of team 6 and 8 is mafia. Team 8 wanted to kill team 1 the other day. Team 1 voted to kill team 6 yesterday (also made some analysis). I still don't think it's probable that the mafia would be voting for each other or posting analysis against each other at that stage of the game (why go through the effort when the town was misguided anyways?) This makes it unlikely that team 1 is mafia since they have a very weak connection to team 6 and team 8. Thus it seems that team 2 is probably the other mafia team, with either 6 or 8.
Of course this is all from my perspective (assuming I'm green). A big part of me feels like we should just kill team 2 now and let team 6 and team 8 duke it out over who's medic (the more time they have to argue the more obvious the real medic will become).
|
Could you post some analysis or something on team 2?
I agree with the duke it out part. But I'm sticking to my vote
|
|
|
On September 26 2010 22:27 LSB wrote:
This is a weird defense. Infun is saying that the medic should be like “Oh look there is no counterclaim, obviously infun is medic!”
That’s just dumb. The “Pointing out there is no counterclaim” is an incredibly stupid argument for a medic to rely on when straight out counterclaim is so much more stronger.
This convinces me that Infun is mafia
Please stop twisting my posts. My defense is that a mafia fakeclaim of medic at this point in the game makes little to no sense; neither Incog nor I are the types of players to do ballsy moves like that, I don't think anyone who's played with either of us will disagree about that. The town is who's in trouble right now, and there's no need for the mafia to come out and force a "1 team or the other is mafia because of this claim," situation, but that's what RoL did.
I'm pointing out that its dumb for RoL to counterclaim because he's the mafia, and by counterclaiming the mafia play the basic trump card - if he wanted he could have easily argued against our claim without counterclaiming first.
If RoL was actually a medic, a counterclaim would have been the right thing to do. But he's not the medic, because his claim makes no sense. As my partner pointed out, his claimed protections Night 1 and 2 are not logical and I'd expect better choices of protection from those 2 players.
Show nested quote +Fun Fact™ for those who can't decide who's telling the truth: why do you think it was me who asked Korynne if the medic/protected person gets a PM notification? Don't you think that RoL, masquerading as the eager medic, would have wanted to know this important information? Now that Infun pointed this out, I don’t think trying to read if Team 8 is medic is a good idea. Team 8 has probably been planning this claim for a while, planting information for a future defence. + Show Spoiler +Anyone else wana claim medic?
This is implausible from a strategic standpoint. Think for a minute - why would the mafia plan a medic claim from Day 1 when they don't know which roles are in the game? If you are mafia, why go through the trouble just to fake claim medic day 3 (and 'breadcrumb' it day 1 and 2?), running the risk of a real medic coming out and forcing your team into a 1v1 situation? Especially with 2 town deaths already, the risk > reward so much that this can't even be WIFOM. A mafia claiming medic in the way my team did today would have to be playing intentionally poorly.
The reason I asked about PM notifications is that there was a lot of talk about medic confirmations and who the medic should protect. Being the medic, knowing whether or not there are PM notifications is pretty important in terms of planning what to do if we make a save, for example.
====
Look, the only thing stopping me from knowing that you're red right now is the fact that you are so obviously defending RoL's counter claim. If RoL dies today you must know you're surely next based on your long and incorrect accusations of my team. Which means you must either be sure you can get my team lynched, or that you are town and genuinely believe that Team 6 is telling the truth. In case of the latter, shame on you :p
I wouldn't expect the second mafia team to be so visibly supportive of Team 6 because if Team 6 is lynched today that visible team [your team!] in all likelihood gets axed next day, since my team would be clear, and that's gg for them. I'd expect the mafia team to play like Teams 2 or 3 has been playing during this Day, especially if you, LSB the townie, are doing the dirty work for them. If you're still holding some animosity because we wanted to lynch you Day 1, please get over it and read the recent day or 2 from a neutral perspective.
The key points are:
1. If Incog and I are red, this play is really bad from a strategic standpoint
2. RoL's counterclaim was poorly devised; his claims of protecting himself night 1 and 2 simply don't hold up under scrutiny. See Incog's post.
3. Team 1's vocal defense of Team 6 means they are either mafia trying to flat out win today without a backup plan, or that Team 1 is townie caught on the wrong side and the mafia is letting Team 1 do the arguing. This is because if team 6 dies, they will flip red, most heavily implicating Team 1. So if team 6 is lynched today, I implore the town not to immediately jump at the throats of Team 1 because the playstyle of Teams 2 and 3 this Day fits more closely to a mafia profile IMO.
|
|
|
All of a sudden you switch to the view that I am inactive? I clearly haven't been inactive. As for your medic "protects" they seem retarded to me, at least your second choice. Your supposed night one choice is between you and Ace/BM and you choice yourself. I could actually believe that protection since I think it was 50/50 based on usefulness of the individual and obviously you would choose yourself on the basis of self interest. However I can't see how the fuck you can run with same train of thought and decide to pick team 2 to protect over team 5.
When we look at there activeness and who posts what team 5 posts way more. If you look at the end pandain posts analysis on the two most suspect teams. Teams 1 and teams 7 which were really well done. Team 2 did nothing of substance yesterday, yet you claim you hastily protected them? That makes no sense.
As far as protecting myself goes, it was argued all over day one the usefulness of the medic and I even was speculating that it wasn't in the game to divert attention from the role. But the general consensus was an immortal medic who is self protecting is a good idea. Plus you can't always count on the mafia to hit in the way you expect, they could be blue hunting and I was acting a little blue. Moderately active posting + Blue role speculation + secondary analysis to stay out of limelight. If they were decent players I feel I would of been a good target, especially if they are trying to avoid obvious protections like you and ace/bm day one and teams 2 and 5 on day two. As another side note, I have done this before and self protected, because it makes sense.
and yeah foolishness I would really like you to elaborate on that. I don't see why you wouldn't vote for either team 8 or team 6 right now.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I have voted for team 6 already.
As I said, currently I believe the IN's that they are the medic (subject to change of course). I already said twice how it doesn't make much sense for team 1 to be mafia because it doesn't seem plausible for them to be related to anyone other team in the game (except for Rastaban and I, but that would mean one of you medic claimers is green, which is not right). That means that teams 2 and 6 must be mafia.
There's not really much else I can say because it seems obvious from my perspective. I realize that that means very little from your points of view. Honestly I don't know why I expect anyone to change to team 2, I'm keeping my vote on team 6 probably, it just makes a lot of sense from my perspective. I'm not going to push it because I don't want to distract from the medic debate going on, since we'd probably all agree that's the most important topic in the town right now.
BC being inactive through this is not helping your case though. Infundibulum is the one convincing me team 8 is medic, not Incognito.
|
I've compiled some posts regarding the role of medic and the two teams that have claimed it.
RoL
He more than either of the other two players makes an effort (if he is medic) to act like he knows less about the medic. If he really was a medic, one would assume that he would know that you send in a PM to protect a certain team. There was also absolutely no need to ask the question if he was medic either as most people would assume that you simply protect a team as a whole. He goes on to make that logical conclusion however and answer his own question in the next sentence which means that this was most likely a deliberate post. He was intentionally asking the question to make himself seem like less of a medic. That'd be good medic behaviour. However if he was mafia, this information would slightly benefit him as he would know how effective his NKs would be. The question still needs not be asked though. I believe that there is a higher probability that this was an attempt to sway our opinion of him as a medic rather than find information as a mafia.
On September 20 2010 15:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.
This next post is consistant with the fact that he didn't claim on day 2 even while under some minor pressure. He doesn't say anything concerning medics that may indicate his role after this.
On September 24 2010 18:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
alright to finish that thought, antitown shit follow by terrible idea for medic claiming for no reason.
Consistant with his behaviour but the sample available for medic behaviour is small anyhow.
Infun
Infundibulum is very unclear in this post about what his stance is but he goes on through the post and basically the only thing he says is that medic should claim if he saves anyone including himself. (Sorry I've been deleting what I've been saying here over and over because it's hard to say much about this post) I'm going to leave any conclusions for this post openended because his behaviour isn't quite definitive of anything just yet.
On September 22 2010 09:05 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" i dont know. it's kind of established at this point that a medic should protect himself. so if the mafia make a hit and it gets blocked, they can assume whoever they targeted was the medic. since the mafia obviously knows who they target, i think it makes sense for the medic to claim then. i'm not sure what happens if a medic protects someone else and blocks a hit though. just precursory thoughts are that if the medic makes a save, he should probably claim - i get the feeling mafia fakeclaims are potentially very powerful in this game
Infundi goes on to say that claiming medic by mafia first is risky as they don't know if there really is a medic or not. However there is only a 50% chance of there being a medic which results in a 25% chance of being lynched especially with the town holding the Incog/Infun team in high regard for their contributions. This allows them to out any medics or half-clear themselves and have a higher potential for getting the other team lynched. His reasoning here is moot and could be really interpreted either way. Granted, the argument looks town-like but he goes on to repeat it vigorously in his next post. LSB's argument against him wasn't very strong but the fact that Infundi keeps pushing this as his defense clearly shows that he's thought alot about how their behaviour would relate to the possibility that they've fake claimed medic. Upon seeing this, one can immediately see that it's not as town-like to do this and is much closer to a 50/50. As well, Incognito has been aggressive this game is contradictory to Infundibulum's claim that the two of them avoid doing risky things. Heavy aggression= risky if you're town or mafia. Town may go to lynch you if you're wrong and mafia just endangers themself.
On September 26 2010 15:18 Infundibulum wrote:
2. Mafia claiming medic first is really risky because they don't know whether there's a medic or not. In a LyLo situation, it's the town that's at risk and not the mafia. There's no reason for the mafia to suddenly stop playing it safe and go balls out unless they want to "win with style." neither Incog nor I is that kind of player (granted that's a bit of wifom, but if you've played any games with either of us you should know that).
Nothing really bothers me other than the last post where he is wrong about Incognito's behaviour this game but tries to use his behaviour as a defence and the fact that he says mafia claiming medic is risky but avoids providing the numbers which actually show otherwise.
Incognito
This post is quite peculiar to me as Incognito states that medics should protect the Vocal town teams. When you think of vocal team in this game who do you think of? Incognito of course. Clearly he was typing down what he was thinking at the moment and was not doing any sort of long term planning whether he was mafia or not. If he was truly medic, the only reason to post this would be for WIFOM purposes which is perfectly fine.
On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
With that said, time for some useful discussion. Unlike the TL Mafia game's I've played, this game doesn't have a Godfather. Therefore, DTs are that much more viable, especially in terms of checking QUIET scummy teams. Medics should be protecting VOCAL pro-town teams. This way, mafia is incentivized to take pot shots at the middle of the pool, as shooting the scummy players is obviously bad and helps narrow down the pool, and shooting active players risks running into medic protection. Mafia is also incentivized to be active because a) they can draw medic protection, b) they must avoid being targetted by DT checks. Mafia can't hide at the bottom because there is no GF or miller card to save them. There are also way to few players to be able to effectively hide from DT checks. The beauty is that even if DTs/medics don't exist, mafia must still play as if they do exist. So this strategy does not rely on the existence of blue roles.
Incognito has been very aggressive in this game which can be considered pro-town but is also pro-mafia in short games such as these.
All in all, I found RoL to be slightly medic-esque, Incognito to be aggressive which isn't necessarily pro-town in this setup and Infundibulum to be slightly non-medic-esque when you see his posts in relation to his partner.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and vote team 8. This was a horrible analysis by the way. I wasn't able to come to many conclusions but the few that I have come to have lead me to this vote. I believe Infundibulum slipped up. All these posts have to do with their behaviour as a potential medic rather than town vs mafia btw.
##Vote Team 8
|
On September 27 2010 02:23 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2010 22:27 LSB wrote:
This is a weird defense. Infun is saying that the medic should be like “Oh look there is no counterclaim, obviously infun is medic!”
That’s just dumb. The “Pointing out there is no counterclaim” is an incredibly stupid argument for a medic to rely on when straight out counterclaim is so much more stronger.
This convinces me that Infun is mafia
Please stop twisting my posts. My defense is that a mafia fakeclaim of medic at this point in the game makes little to no sense; neither Incog nor I are the types of players to do ballsy moves like that, I don't think anyone who's played with either of us will disagree about that. The town is who's in trouble right now, and there's no need for the mafia to come out and force a "1 team or the other is mafia because of this claim," situation, but that's what RoL did. I'm pointing out that its dumb for RoL to counterclaim because he's the mafia, and by counterclaiming the mafia play the basic trump card - if he wanted he could have easily argued against our claim without counterclaiming first. If RoL was actually a medic, a counterclaim would have been the right thing to do. But he's not the medic, because his claim makes no sense. As my partner pointed out, his claimed protections Night 1 and 2 are not logical and I'd expect better choices of protection from those 2 players. Show nested quote +Fun Fact™ for those who can't decide who's telling the truth: why do you think it was me who asked Korynne if the medic/protected person gets a PM notification? Don't you think that RoL, masquerading as the eager medic, would have wanted to know this important information? Now that Infun pointed this out, I don’t think trying to read if Team 8 is medic is a good idea. Team 8 has probably been planning this claim for a while, planting information for a future defence. + Show Spoiler +Anyone else wana claim medic? This is implausible from a strategic standpoint. Think for a minute - why would the mafia plan a medic claim from Day 1 when they don't know which roles are in the game? If you are mafia, why go through the trouble just to fake claim medic day 3 (and 'breadcrumb' it day 1 and 2?), running the risk of a real medic coming out and forcing your team into a 1v1 situation? Especially with 2 town deaths already, the risk > reward so much that this can't even be WIFOM. A mafia claiming medic in the way my team did today would have to be playing intentionally poorly. The reason I asked about PM notifications is that there was a lot of talk about medic confirmations and who the medic should protect. Being the medic, knowing whether or not there are PM notifications is pretty important in terms of planning what to do if we make a save, for example.
This is stupid to argue, I asked plenty of questions regarding medic as well. PM notification of saves doesn't really help us this game as there is no PMing unless you are mafia. If a hit misses the medic knows they saved someone. What does it matter if the individual knows they were saved? Its not like they get to know who saved them. I don't see how asking that question makes you any more of a medic then me.
Look, the only thing stopping me from knowing that you're red right now is the fact that you are so obviously defending RoL's counter claim. If RoL dies today you must know you're surely next based on your long and incorrect accusations of my team. Which means you must either be sure you can get my team lynched, or that you are town and genuinely believe that Team 6 is telling the truth. In case of the latter, shame on you :p
I wouldn't expect the second mafia team to be so visibly supportive of Team 6 because if Team 6 is lynched today that visible team [your team!] in all likelihood gets axed next day, since my team would be clear, and that's gg for them. I'd expect the mafia team to play like Teams 2 or 3 has been playing during this Day, especially if you, LSB the townie, are doing the dirty work for them. If you're still holding some animosity because we wanted to lynch you Day 1, please get over it and read the recent day or 2 from a neutral perspective.
Once again this doesn't support how I would play this from mafia. This is an insanely ballsy move that is completely unnecessary from me if I was mafia considering no one suspected me at all.
The key points are:
1. If Incog and I are red, this play is really bad from a strategic standpoint
2. RoL's counterclaim was poorly devised; his claims of protecting himself night 1 and 2 simply don't hold up under scrutiny. See Incog's post.
3. Team 1's vocal defense of Team 6 means they are either mafia trying to flat out win today without a backup plan, or that Team 1 is townie caught on the wrong side and the mafia is letting Team 1 do the arguing. This is because if team 6 dies, they will flip red, most heavily implicating Team 1. So if team 6 is lynched today, I implore the town not to immediately jump at the throats of Team 1 because the playstyle of Teams 2 and 3 this Day fits more closely to a mafia profile IMO.
1. You were going to die anyway, there are plenty of behavioral tells from the previous day like incogs apologetic to your medic claim. It reeks of desperate mafia play.
2. Wrong. Read my reasoning. Anytime a medic can self protect in a game, he should self protect. Plus the reason I can call you out is because the town is going to believe me and get rid of you and if for some reason they choose to lynch the OTHER mafia my ability to protect the other two remaining town makes it really hard for you to make a good hit, since you can't hit me otherwise it proves you are mafia.
3. So flipfloppy. I don't even know what to say to that. Plus your team mate contradicts you by believing Foolishness is 100% town. You can't even get your story strait.
|
|
|
On September 27 2010 06:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2010 02:23 Infundibulum wrote:On September 26 2010 22:27 LSB wrote:
This is a weird defense. Infun is saying that the medic should be like “Oh look there is no counterclaim, obviously infun is medic!”
That’s just dumb. The “Pointing out there is no counterclaim” is an incredibly stupid argument for a medic to rely on when straight out counterclaim is so much more stronger.
This convinces me that Infun is mafia
Please stop twisting my posts. My defense is that a mafia fakeclaim of medic at this point in the game makes little to no sense; neither Incog nor I are the types of players to do ballsy moves like that, I don't think anyone who's played with either of us will disagree about that. The town is who's in trouble right now, and there's no need for the mafia to come out and force a "1 team or the other is mafia because of this claim," situation, but that's what RoL did. I'm pointing out that its dumb for RoL to counterclaim because he's the mafia, and by counterclaiming the mafia play the basic trump card - if he wanted he could have easily argued against our claim without counterclaiming first. If RoL was actually a medic, a counterclaim would have been the right thing to do. But he's not the medic, because his claim makes no sense. As my partner pointed out, his claimed protections Night 1 and 2 are not logical and I'd expect better choices of protection from those 2 players. Fun Fact™ for those who can't decide who's telling the truth: why do you think it was me who asked Korynne if the medic/protected person gets a PM notification? Don't you think that RoL, masquerading as the eager medic, would have wanted to know this important information? Now that Infun pointed this out, I don’t think trying to read if Team 8 is medic is a good idea. Team 8 has probably been planning this claim for a while, planting information for a future defence. + Show Spoiler +Anyone else wana claim medic? This is implausible from a strategic standpoint. Think for a minute - why would the mafia plan a medic claim from Day 1 when they don't know which roles are in the game? If you are mafia, why go through the trouble just to fake claim medic day 3 (and 'breadcrumb' it day 1 and 2?), running the risk of a real medic coming out and forcing your team into a 1v1 situation? Especially with 2 town deaths already, the risk > reward so much that this can't even be WIFOM. A mafia claiming medic in the way my team did today would have to be playing intentionally poorly. The reason I asked about PM notifications is that there was a lot of talk about medic confirmations and who the medic should protect. Being the medic, knowing whether or not there are PM notifications is pretty important in terms of planning what to do if we make a save, for example. This is stupid to argue, I asked plenty of questions regarding medic as well. PM notification of saves doesn't really help us this game as there is no PMing unless you are mafia. If a hit misses the medic knows they saved someone. What does it matter if the individual knows they were saved? Its not like they get to know who saved them. I don't see how asking that question makes you any more of a medic then me.
Um, the reason PM notification matters is that the person who was protected can speak up in the thread to say, "I took a hit last night." Without PM notification they can't do this. It has nothing to do with one team PMing another team. Claiming a hit matters, even if you don't saved you. Why are you trying to tell people that knowing who the mafia targeted doesn't matter?
Show nested quote +
Look, the only thing stopping me from knowing that you're red right now is the fact that you are so obviously defending RoL's counter claim. If RoL dies today you must know you're surely next based on your long and incorrect accusations of my team. Which means you must either be sure you can get my team lynched, or that you are town and genuinely believe that Team 6 is telling the truth. In case of the latter, shame on you :p
I wouldn't expect the second mafia team to be so visibly supportive of Team 6 because if Team 6 is lynched today that visible team [your team!] in all likelihood gets axed next day, since my team would be clear, and that's gg for them. I'd expect the mafia team to play like Teams 2 or 3 has been playing during this Day, especially if you, LSB the townie, are doing the dirty work for them. If you're still holding some animosity because we wanted to lynch you Day 1, please get over it and read the recent day or 2 from a neutral perspective.
Once again this doesn't support how I would play this from mafia. This is an insanely ballsy move that is completely unnecessary from me if I was mafia considering no one suspected me at all.
Nobody suspected you besides teams 3 and 7, you mean.
Besides, in this quote I'm talking about LSB/Pyrr. Not you/BC.
Show nested quote +
The key points are:
1. If Incog and I are red, this play is really bad from a strategic standpoint
2. RoL's counterclaim was poorly devised; his claims of protecting himself night 1 and 2 simply don't hold up under scrutiny. See Incog's post.
3. Team 1's vocal defense of Team 6 means they are either mafia trying to flat out win today without a backup plan, or that Team 1 is townie caught on the wrong side and the mafia is letting Team 1 do the arguing. This is because if team 6 dies, they will flip red, most heavily implicating Team 1. So if team 6 is lynched today, I implore the town not to immediately jump at the throats of Team 1 because the playstyle of Teams 2 and 3 this Day fits more closely to a mafia profile IMO.
1. You were going to die anyway, there are plenty of behavioral tells from the previous day like incogs apologetic to your medic claim. It reeks of desperate mafia play. 2. Wrong. Read my reasoning. Anytime a medic can self protect in a game, he should self protect. Plus the reason I can call you out is because the town is going to believe me and get rid of you and if for some reason they choose to lynch the OTHER mafia my ability to protect the other two remaining town makes it really hard for you to make a good hit, since you can't hit me otherwise it proves you are mafia. 3. So flipfloppy. I don't even know what to say to that. Plus your team mate contradicts you by believing Foolishness is 100% town. You can't even get your story strait.
[/quote]
1. Why was I going to die anyway?
2. Nope, and this reasoning was proven wrong by Ace before he died. Let's pretend you're really the medic for a second. Why would the mafia hit your team, who has a really strong inactive player, and been slightly on the radar as potential reds? Why would you protect yourself Night 1 when the mafia had no reason to hit you? At least in our case, the two most likely targets were either our team, due to Incog's large presence in the town, or Ace's team, because he's Ace. We guessed wrong, but never once did we consider that the mafia would hit team 6. I'm not sure what you're trying to sayin the second sentence. Of course I can't hit you - I'm the medic!
3. My teammate and I are independent people that don't always agree on everything. Speaking of teammates, it's probably about time for BC to show up and try to save your ass.
|
Oops I guess I forgot
[Vote]Team 6
|
I'm not entirely sold on Team 2 being mafia. I've made many enemies this game, such as Team 1 and Team 7. And now Team 6. As it stands right now, Team 1/6 are voting for me in (almost) full force.
The Team 2 thing makes sense given they're also inactive in a game where mafia doesn't need to be active. However, I'm not sure Team 1's vote accusing is the be all end all because no lynch was the dominant option on day 1.
Really, if Team 2 is mafia, the game is already over. Its split between Team 6/8 2 teams and 2 teams. Team 2 is the deciding vote, so if they're mafia, why haven't they wagonned me yet?
|
On September 27 2010 04:01 Foolishness wrote: Infundibulum is the one convincing me team 8 is medic, not Incognito.
What convinces you that I'm medic? I'm starting to worry that my words aren't going to get through to the other town team (team 1?) and that we're going to lose. I think I've laid out my arguments fairly well, but don't really know what more i can say...
|
yay no need for me to have to make a long post
however im confused, it's obviously between team 6/8 at this point and one is certainly mafia but
if incognito team was medic why the fuck wouldnt he protect himself? with how active and pro town incognito was trying to be you'd think surely they would want to keep themselves alive/think they're likely to be a target.
Or did they think that there was some levelling going on where obviously he'd be the most natural target so mafia might think he was the most natural target for med prot so not hit him?
nahhh that doesn't really pan out well.
obviously my team isnt mafia lol or we could just stack on whichever one of you two we knew was town and get it over with. This is hurting my brain cause team IN has been active enough to get a read off of then you have the other team where the other member is totally AWOL and RoL is well he's him.
anyways
##vote team 8
i like bum voting for team 1 lol
|
Oh look here comes the mafia hammer train.
|
On September 27 2010 09:46 Incognito wrote:
I'm not entirely sold on Team 2 being mafia. I've made many enemies this game, such as Team 1 and Team 7. And now Team 6. As it stands right now, Team 1/6 are voting for me in (almost) full force.
The Team 2 thing makes sense given they're also inactive in a game where mafia doesn't need to be active. However, I'm not sure Team 1's vote accusing is the be all end all because no lynch was the dominant option on day 1.
Really, if Team 2 is mafia, the game is already over. Its split between Team 6/8 2 teams and 2 teams. Team 2 is the deciding vote, so if they're mafia, why haven't they wagonned me yet?
Not my fault my teammates are lazy >.> and really I'm just voting you temporarily for now. I've mentioned that I managed to only find a bit of information about you two "medic" teams and I'm basically going to go over your actions again before the day is over and think about changing my vote.
|
you're not even trying, are you?
|
|
|
On September 27 2010 10:22 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2010 09:46 Incognito wrote:
I'm not entirely sold on Team 2 being mafia. I've made many enemies this game, such as Team 1 and Team 7. And now Team 6. As it stands right now, Team 1/6 are voting for me in (almost) full force.
The Team 2 thing makes sense given they're also inactive in a game where mafia doesn't need to be active. However, I'm not sure Team 1's vote accusing is the be all end all because no lynch was the dominant option on day 1.
Really, if Team 2 is mafia, the game is already over. Its split between Team 6/8 2 teams and 2 teams. Team 2 is the deciding vote, so if they're mafia, why haven't they wagonned me yet? Not my fault my teammates are lazy >.> and really I'm just voting you temporarily for now. I've mentioned that I managed to only find a bit of information about you two "medic" teams and I'm basically going to go over your actions again before the day is over and think about changing my vote.
Your buddy just wagoned me so T_T
I'm not really expecting you to change your vote, so if you're mafia, you don't have to bother trying. You have nothing to lose by disappearing and not doing what you say.
|
I really haven't been communicating with my teammates honestly haha. They're kinda just moseying along :/. I think they're just happy enough not to have any votes on them. I would've probably been PMing you and probably a couple other teams had it been not considered cheating.
|
|
|
Think about it this way. 3 teams are on my tail. The only reason for me to be talking right now is that Foolishness is my scumbuddy and I desperately need to convince town not to lynch me. If I'm mafia and Foolishness is town, I don't need to say anything, I just let Foolishness misvote, then have me/my scumbuddy bandwagon on RoL at the last minute.
Look at the votes and look at the positions people have taken.
If I'm mafia, then my behavior doesn't make much sense unless Foolishness is mafia. If Foolishness was mafia, there is no reason for me to medic claim. RoL was scummy enough as it is. I wouldn't have needed to risk claiming when the three other teams are plenty scummy enough to lynch. Besides, It also doesn't make sense for Foolishness to defy my T1 analysis in favor of T7 if we're both mafia. Plainly speaking, its highly unlikely for me to be mafia at this point. Lynch team 6.
|
True true... I'ma hold out for now though.
|
On September 27 2010 10:24 Infundibulum wrote:
you're not even trying, are you?
i was contemplating just posting my vote to piss people like you off
|
actually you know what after reading through everyone's reasons for voting for who they did i've convinced myself that the likely combination for me is team1/team6
so
##unvote
##vote team6
|
On September 27 2010 11:23 Divinek wrote:
actually you know what after reading through everyone's reasons for voting for who they did i've convinced myself that the likely combination for me is team1/team6
so
##unvote
##vote team6
Seriously? I am getting tired of this shit from your team and foolishness. Can we see your own reasoning? I can't make my points anymore solid than I have.
The way voting went is retarded from a mafia stand point anyway. Ideally mafia adds votes on during the last 20 minutes before voting closes. Not first 20 minutes so it looks so retardedly obvious.
Can you please at least do some analysis before you go ahead and throw the game away?
|
Hmm I dunno what Team 2 is doing but I don't like it. They are making no sense and splitting their votes out wildly. Maybe we can just go for them (foolishness / whichever medic team is for real)? We still have almost 24 hours left.
##unvote
##vote Team 2
|
sweet team 1 really is mafia
look at that lol, takes vote off team 8 after clearly saying the only options right now are team 6/8 and when realizing team 6 is about to die tries this shit
please
|
I swear to god this town is some form of retarded. Pyrrhuloxia have you just completely avoided reading the thread? Either vote for me or vote for incognito.
|
I CANT LET MY TEAM DOWN
##unvote
##vote team 6
Nice to see all this wriggling, thought I had something between teams 1 and 3, but I really fail at reading comprehension. Both teams 6 and 8 claimed medic for certain?
|
On September 27 2010 13:37 bumatlarge wrote:
I CANT LET MY TEAM DOWN
##unvote
##vote team 6
Nice to see all this wriggling, thought I had something between teams 1 and 3, but I really fail at reading comprehension. Both teams 6 and 8 claimed medic for certain?
Yes. Analyze posts and figure out who you think is mafia. I swear to god if I see one more post that comes without an actual explanation or a reason I am just going afk for rest of the game.
|
On September 27 2010 13:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I swear to god this town is some form of retarded. Pyrrhuloxia have you just completely avoided reading the thread? Either vote for me or vote for incognito.
no actually he has read it. Before when bum voted for TEAM 1. pyrr pointed out that it's between 6/8
and now he does exactly the same thing rofl
|
On September 27 2010 14:17 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2010 13:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I swear to god this town is some form of retarded. Pyrrhuloxia have you just completely avoided reading the thread? Either vote for me or vote for incognito. no actually he has read it. Before when bum voted for TEAM 1. pyrr pointed out that it's between 6/8 and now he does exactly the same thing rofl
At this point I am more sure about you so that's where my vote is. Did I change my mind? Yes. Sue me.
|
On September 27 2010 14:24 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2010 14:17 Divinek wrote:On September 27 2010 13:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I swear to god this town is some form of retarded. Pyrrhuloxia have you just completely avoided reading the thread? Either vote for me or vote for incognito. no actually he has read it. Before when bum voted for TEAM 1. pyrr pointed out that it's between 6/8 and now he does exactly the same thing rofl At this point I am more sure about you so that's where my vote is. Did I change my mind? Yes. Sue me.
you're more sure about my team than someone that has fake claimed medic? that's pretty impressive. I'd like to see such compelling evidence that puts us above a guaranteed mafia.
|
|
|
On September 27 2010 15:04 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2010 14:24 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 27 2010 14:17 Divinek wrote:On September 27 2010 13:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I swear to god this town is some form of retarded. Pyrrhuloxia have you just completely avoided reading the thread? Either vote for me or vote for incognito. no actually he has read it. Before when bum voted for TEAM 1. pyrr pointed out that it's between 6/8 and now he does exactly the same thing rofl At this point I am more sure about you so that's where my vote is. Did I change my mind? Yes. Sue me. you're more sure about my team than someone that has fake claimed medic? that's pretty impressive. I'd like to see such compelling evidence that puts us above a guaranteed mafia.
I have more of a townie read on Team 3 than a medic read on either medic claimer. I'll look it back over and make a final decision later I guess but Foolishness seemed to have a similar feeling.
|
(Hopefully the day doesn't end by the time I come back so I still have time to reread and perhaps revote)
|
GG guys, I am off to school and won't be back until voting is over.
|
At this point in time the only other scenario I'm worried about other than Incog/Infun= mafia and RoL/BC= mafia is Foolishness and Rastaban + RoL BC = mafia in which case the three members not voting Incog/Infun could jump ship at the last moment. I have the ability to stop that however by switching my vote (Or Pyrr if he wishes). There's about a 25% chance from my viewpoint that this will occur as I obviously do not consider my team to be mafia. I've been thinking over the overall jist of the game so far and I don't think it would've been a wise play on Team 8's part to bus Team 1 during the early stages of the game if they were mafia partners even when considering WIFOM tactics. I was also convinced by Incognito's most recent post (That is before the recent vote switches) that Team 8-3 wasn't quite likely at this point in time either. Finally team 1/6 just seem to be the greatest of buttbuddies in these two consecutive posts. Pyrr has been saying that he believes team 8 to be more mafia like during this day and begins trying to push an attack on to us because my two teammates switched their two votes onto RoL/BC giving them a majority in votes. RoL basically criticizes them for the same thing. I don't know if anyone else senses it but I can sense desperation from Teams 1 and 6 at this point.
At this point my vote doesn't matter if it is true that Team 1/6 are mafia but I'm going to change my vote just for later game purposes.
|
Derp I'm dumb
##Vote Team 6
|
|
|
Hey Pyrr care to explain after voting Team 8?
|
After seeing this post
On September 27 2010 10:17 Divinek wrote:
yay no need for me to have to make a long post
however im confused, it's obviously between team 6/8 at this point and one is certainly mafia but
if incognito team was medic why the fuck wouldnt he protect himself? with how active and pro town incognito was trying to be you'd think surely they would want to keep themselves alive/think they're likely to be a target.
Or did they think that there was some levelling going on where obviously he'd be the most natural target so mafia might think he was the most natural target for med prot so not hit him?
nahhh that doesn't really pan out well.
obviously my team isnt mafia lol or we could just stack on whichever one of you two we knew was town and get it over with. This is hurting my brain cause team IN has been active enough to get a read off of then you have the other team where the other member is totally AWOL and RoL is well he's him.
anyways
##vote team 8
i like bum voting for team 1 lol
Immediately I think something was wrong about my lynch. I wasn't expecting a real bandwagon from happening. Although I still think team 8 is mafia. It's kind of strange when team 6 suddenly shows up. I ended up choosing the lesser of two evils
But then Team 2 also shows up. And it isn't just team 2, it's Divinek. Divinek I've been looking for him jumping on bandwagons and he does this.
Of course, he changes it
On September 27 2010 11:23 Divinek wrote:
actually you know what after reading through everyone's reasons for voting for who they did i've convinced myself that the likely combination for me is team1/team6
so
##unvote
##vote team6
I can't really tell if Incog is with you or not. It all could be WIFOM, but Divinek doesn't really expain himself with any analysis, just just says that everyone's reasons for voting.
When we look at the reasons for voting
Team 1: Team 8 is probably mafia
Team 3: Team 6 defends themselves well.
It kindof is off topic
On September 27 2010 13:16 Divinek wrote:
sweet team 1 really is mafia
look at that lol, takes vote off team 8 after clearly saying the only options right now are team 6/8 and when realizing team 6 is about to die tries this shit
please
Is Divinek trying to set up tomorrows lynch? That probably means that Team 6 is mafia, since Divinek is expecting them to flip red. Even if we hit mafia, tomorrow will still be LYLO.
Remember: Mafia can easily win by sacrificing someone today and killing the person who supported the person they sacrificed tomorrow
Also, ROL finally came back to duke it out with incog. BC hasn't showed up for some reason, even for a vote.
On September 27 2010 02:47 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
All of a sudden you switch to the view that I am inactive? I clearly haven't been inactive. As for your medic "protects" they seem retarded to me, at least your second choice. Your supposed night one choice is between you and Ace/BM and you choice yourself. I could actually believe that protection since I think it was 50/50 based on usefulness of the individual and obviously you would choose yourself on the basis of self interest. However I can't see how the fuck you can run with same train of thought and decide to pick team 2 to protect over team 5.
When we look at there activeness and who posts what team 5 posts way more. If you look at the end pandain posts analysis on the two most suspect teams. Teams 1 and teams 7 which were really well done. Team 2 did nothing of substance yesterday, yet you claim you hastily protected them? That makes no sense.
As far as protecting myself goes, it was argued all over day one the usefulness of the medic and I even was speculating that it wasn't in the game to divert attention from the role. But the general consensus was an immortal medic who is self protecting is a good idea. Plus you can't always count on the mafia to hit in the way you expect, they could be blue hunting and I was acting a little blue. Moderately active posting + Blue role speculation + secondary analysis to stay out of limelight. If they were decent players I feel I would of been a good target, especially if they are trying to avoid obvious protections like you and ace/bm day one and teams 2 and 5 on day two. As another side note, I have done this before and self protected, because it makes sense.
and yeah foolishness I would really like you to elaborate on that. I don't see why you wouldn't vote for either team 8 or team 6 right now.
RoL clearly is on the defensive. He feels the need more to defend himself than attack team 8. In fact he hasn't had much attacks on team 8 at all. He seems to only have relyed on my post.
I'm just going to go for the safe choice then. Besides the two medic claimers, there are three teams, Team 1, Team 2, Team 3. I don't think Team 3 is mafia, so that leaves team two
Vote: Team 2
|
EBWOP
Hey Pyrr care to explain after voting team 8 and explaining why you think Team 6 is more innocent than Team 8?
It's not like my vote should sway you from unvoting Team 2 after changing your vote to us recently, (Hint hint I'm part of team 2) so why would you change your vote? It's not like you were planning on having us vote ourselves...
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Vote for team 6 dude. If the town has their votes spread out the mafia will just change last minute and auto win. It's too late to lynch someone else, either vote team 6 or give mafia auto win.
|
it's nice to see lsb's reads on me are just as bad as ever
|
On September 28 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:
Vote for team 6 dude. If the town has their votes spread out the mafia will just change last minute and auto win. It's too late to lynch someone else, either vote team 6 or give mafia auto win.
Don't worry, I'm watching. As always.
|
Lol @ accusing Team 2 of spreading out votes... Look what just happened!
|
On September 28 2010 09:31 Divinek wrote:
it's nice to see lsb's reads on me are just as bad as ever
Penalty mafia: I fingered you as mafia
RAM: I fingered you as anti town.
|
hmm, looks like I am about to die? awesome
vote team 2
Random vote to avoid being added to a banlist weeeeee
|
Day 3
Almost unanimously everyone pushed RebirthOfLeGenD and BloodyC0bbler up to the stand. Their heads were put into the noose.
*snap*
+ Show Spoiler +RebirthOfLeGenD and BloodyC0bbler the mafia have been lynched.
|
Well now I'm 100% medic and we have 4 teams left. Ima stick with my original thesis and get Team 1 lynch tomorrow like I wanted to on day 1.
[Vote]Team 1
|
wait shouldn't it be night now
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Team 6 and 8 both mafia lol
|
Dude it's night don't vote. Crazy person.
|
Doesn't matter I'm still going after Team 1 tomorrow. Get ready to die scum.
|
|
|
On September 28 2010 10:25 Foolishness wrote:
Team 6 and 8 both mafia lol
That would be genius. Abit unlikely
|
On September 28 2010 10:35 LSB wrote:That would be genius. Abit unlikely
They both had to bank on a no medic game if thats the case, or risk losing the game. I dont see anyway in hell they would risk losing the game over this. I think they could have had a safe win having one of them claim and put the heat on any other team. My entire team would have gone for team 1 and im sure team 1 would have gone for us. Glad team 8 claimed ALL ACCORDING TO MY PLAN. Now we basically have a confirmed treestump, and lylo is again next time between two people? My guess is a hit on team 3 and then its between team 1 and 2 I suppose. Strongly leaning towards 1 obv.
Its up to you team 8! (i hope...?)
|
Oh also, mafia could chance a hit on team 8 and it will basically be the same deal, lylo with 1 red 3 town if they block the hit, and stop any medic shenanigans confirming another crew and keeping them alive. Still... it comes down to team 8. Are we allowed to push this into hyperdrive and make the move?
|
GG BACK TO SCHOOL WORK NOW
|
Nice deduction guys, It will be interesting to see who mafia takes a gamble on hitting tonight. GL medic on stopping them
|
On September 28 2010 10:55 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh also, mafia could chance a hit on team 8 and it will basically be the same deal, lylo with 1 red 3 town if they block the hit, and stop any medic shenanigans confirming another crew and keeping them alive. Still... it comes down to team 8. Are we allowed to push this into hyperdrive and make the move?
basically heres what happens
1. we don't block a hit
-> 2v1 tomorrow = lylo
2. we block a hit
-> miss lynch = 2v1 at night, mafia makes kill = win
so we lose no matter what if we miss a lynch, regardless of protection. In order to see Day 5 we will have to get 2 protections right in a row.
|
but the great thing is that if you block a hit that means you and the blocked person are both confirmed,
of the 3v1 for lynch 1 or 2 are 100% confirmed (depends on if you save yourself or someone else). I know confirmed people aren't everything but it makes the job much easier, the mafia certainly don't want that to happen.
Obviously you are way ahead of me on this but
these are the 2 most likely to be mafia (with team 2 most likely)
1. LSB and Pyrrhuloxia
2. bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea
Assuming you are the medic, and because our teams worked together for this lynch then we are the most likely townies:
3. rastaban and Foolishness
8. Infundibulum and Incognito
Mafia doesn't want to hit the other person in the first category since it makes them much more obvious. so the hit is most beneficial for them if they go for 3 or 8.
|
What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive.
|
On September 29 2010 04:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive.
I don't even know what you are meaning with this.
If they don't hit then it is like our medic had 100% success stopping them. What I was doing was giving advice on how the mafia is thinking about the hit, if they don't hit at all then obviously it doesn't matter who is protected.
Sure the mafia could pull there hit but do you really think they would do that? The huge problem with that is that if they pull their hit then and lynch wrong, there is a 1/3 chance that the town medic blocks the hit and it is game. and really only a 1/2 chance if we are certain who the mafia is. If do you really think the mafia will try and gamble on a strategy that nearly has a built in 50% chance of losing....
|
True.. I wasn't quite thinking about the medic save afterwards . Thanks for clarifying.
|
Incog and Infun should be figuring out where to protect.
I just don't get why Bum/SR is discussing where to hit for the night. Are they trying to influence the medic save?
|
Except I actually wasn't... I was speculating that the mafia probably weren't going to shoot which turned out to be wrong. Stop trying to manipulate information.
|
Don't mind me, I'm just being paranoid, since I was wrong about Incog.
But suggesting that the mafia won't shoot anyone? Thats quiet weird. I can't see any reason why this would be used. Team two would kill Team 3, Team 3 would kill 2.
Unless Incog is mafia, but as always, the possibility of that is 0%
|
On September 29 2010 04:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive.
The mafia have to kill every night, I asked Korynne earlier and posted it in the thread
|
Day 3
Come on now children, on to your new room.
Everyone walked into the new room, there were roller coaster seats around the room.
Strap yourselves in, boys~
So a new day begins.
|
|
|
|
|
On September 29 2010 10:02 SouthRawrea wrote:
Called it... CALLED IT
no you didn't. we self protected.
|
Mafia tried to kill me and failed. Team 2 has no incentive to kill me because I would've voted for Team 1. Therefore, Team 1 is mafia.
Adendum: The other option is that Foolishness is mafia. Which I'm analyzing at this point, but I find extremely unlikely.
|
Aw wait damn. :/ GG either way.
##Vote Team 1
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I think this confirms Incognito and Infundibulum as medic. If we assume they are mafia, then the situations as follows:
1) We have a medic, which doesn't make sense since they would have said something by now.
2) There is no medic. But this does not make sense either since Incognito and Infundibulum claimed to have protected themselves. If they were mafia, it'd be much more plausible for them to say they protected team 3 (or any other team maybe). This is because they'd instantly be seen as confirmed, and rastaban and I would instantly be on their side, and they'd virtually have no way of losing. Also consider that it'd be believable for the mafia to hit us (team 3), especially given that people were talking about it during the night.
Long way of saying what we pretty much already know, but it's more reason not to doubt their claim, and more reason for us to focus on teams 1 through 3. I still think team 2 is mafia at the moment, but I'll be looking.
|
By the way, It was mentioned in the thread that mafia have to shoot each night. Im going with team1, and if its a mislynch which i highly doubt, team 8 can make some epic save and vote on the appropriate monkey. Can we speed up this process? I dont think Ill be around in 2 days even if it doesnt matter after this vote.
vote team 1
I think this game was well played either way, but I still will pray. I didnt write any stuff but I may try to eek out some funny noisiness before ITS THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
|
On September 29 2010 05:49 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2010 04:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive. I don't even know what you are meaning with this. If they don't hit then it is like our medic had 100% success stopping them. What I was doing was giving advice on how the mafia is thinking about the hit, if they don't hit at all then obviously it doesn't matter who is protected. Sure the mafia could pull there hit but do you really think they would do that? The huge problem with that is that if they pull their hit then and lynch wrong, there is a 1/3 chance that the town medic blocks the hit and it is game. and really only a 1/2 chance if we are certain who the mafia is. If do you really think the mafia will try and gamble on a strategy that nearly has a built in 50% chance of losing....
mafia CAN'T pull their hit
remember it was already asked they HAVE to try and hit someone, so incog is 100% cleared i think?
##vote team 1
|
On September 29 2010 13:08 Foolishness wrote:
I think this confirms Incognito and Infundibulum as medic. If we assume they are mafia, then the situations as follows:
1) We have a medic, which doesn't make sense since they would have said something by now.
2) There is no medic. But this does not make sense either since Incognito and Infundibulum claimed to have protected themselves. If they were mafia, it'd be much more plausible for them to say they protected team 3 (or any other team maybe). This is because they'd instantly be seen as confirmed, and rastaban and I would instantly be on their side, and they'd virtually have no way of losing. Also consider that it'd be believable for the mafia to hit us (team 3), especially given that people were talking about it during the night.
Long way of saying what we pretty much already know, but it's more reason not to doubt their claim, and more reason for us to focus on teams 1 through 3. I still think team 2 is mafia at the moment, but I'll be looking.
2) is not possible. Mafia are not allowed to no hit. The fact that nobody died last night means that a medic exists. Since nobody else has claimed, we're the medic.
Night 1: Ace/BM dies. Ace's top suspect was LSB (Team 1).
Night 2: Pandain/BB dies. Pandain wrote two long posts on why LSB was mafia and why Pyrr was mafia. And another one on why meeple was town.
Night 3: I am targetted. I pushed Team 1 day 1. I also stated I was for sure going to vote Team 1 after Team 6 was lynched.
Common thread here? People who accuse Team 1 die. 3x is more than a coincidence to me.
With that said, I have reason to believe Team 1 may not be mafia.
Unvote: Team 1
Pyrr/LSB have had bad activity and haven't been pro-town at all. Granted, I attacked them very close to the beginning of the game, so the townie-defense-mode kneejerk reaction might well be the case. Their recent (in)activity might just be disgust of my attacks. The night kills totally don't look good for them. However, I'm looking at the day 2 lynch. I linked Team 7 and Team 1. Why would Team 1 be so outraged at the connection if they were mafia? They would have known Team 7 is innocent. Since I was going for Team 7 for lynch instead of Team 1, Team 1 shouldn't have any worries about the Team 7 lynch because Team 7's death would discredit my connection. Pyrr has the idea that I know Pyrr is mafia, therefore YellowInk is mafia. Let's assume he believes that that was my actual argument. As mafia, why would he care if an Innocent YellowInk is lynched? He doesn't. YellowInk flipping green is good for his case. Pyrr has no reason to discredit the link there, especially since we're going after YI before Pyrr. As Foolishness also said, Team 1 accusing Team 6 day one doesn't make too much sense unless they were feeling really desperate.
Team 2 doesn't make sense. I was targetted by the mafia. Given Foolishness' adamant attacks on Team 2, it doesn't make sense for Team 2 to kill me, since I would save them and kill team 1. Killing Foolishness seems the most sensible here, as the risk of Team 2 losing by Foolishness's vote is just too great to warrant using a WIFOM argument.
Looking at those two teams, we find that by process of elimination, Team 3 must be mafia. However, lets still examine them a little closer:
Team 3 makes sense. Team 7 blindly calls out Team 6 on day 2. Foolishness attacks this and says he'd go for it but nobody's presented any analysis on Team 6. Then on day 3, Foolishness votes Team 6 and tells us to just read their posts to see why. Something that YellowInk said the day before but Foolishness criticized. This comes after I claim medic. Now why does Foolishness decide to vote Team 6 instead of me? Even after he said he'd go after me if meeple flipped green. First of all, if he's mafia, he can't discount my statement of disgust/ragequit. He has to assume it is a trap. Foolishness probably knows that Pyrr did the same thing as mafia. It is easy for him to sit back while town viciously kills me for this "tell". Its hard for him to jump on board because that's just not his style. He isn't known for lynching off of these bogus "tells". Since he has to assume that I'm bluffing and that I'm not ragequitting, he can't safely jump on that wagon. Therefore, he has to do it by analysis. However, its hard for Foolishness to do a full post analysis of me in the context of me being mafia. If he is forced to quote all my posts, like he did for meeple, its painfully obvious that I'm town from my first few posts and the general fact that I'm the driving force of this game. So he might as well let others deduce that I'm fishy by themselves. Notice how the entire game Foolishness has been dropping posts indicating that he thinks I'm mafia. He never backs up a single one of those attacks with evidence. Interesting, given that I've dared him multiple times to analyze my posts and find me scummy. In any case, its hard for Foolishness to get away with good analysis noting why I'm mafia. Also hard for him to get away with a BS reason on why I'm mafia, as he doesn't know if my ragequit statement was planned or not. Safer for him to let other people find me scummy and lynch me, while he votes his own team mate. Notice how he never gives Pyrr a reason why he thinks RoL is more scummy than me. He also never gives inf an answer to where inf dropped "medic tells". Because quite frankly, he prefers if I'm lynched. He doesn't want to convince anyone that I'm innocent. Besides, a lot of people are going to find me suspicious. I lynched an innocent, and made funny statements. So now he's caught. He can't really lynch Team 1 or 8. Which leaves his scumbuddy and Team 2. Gunning for Team 2 doesn't make sense given his previous statements about team 6. Politically he was suspicious of Team 6 at the end of Day 2. Which makes it hard for him to vote team 2 off the bat. After RoL's fakeclaim though, notice Foolishness suggesting a switch to Team 2. Even after the fakeclaim he still can't really vote me because he'd have to have real analysis. Foolishness can't viably push Team 1 because he's opposed it all game. Perhaps he was banking on me pushing it to lead him to victory. He also can't push Team 2 given that they aren't really on anyone's radar at this point. He can't push me if he thinks I'm going to win in the analysis battle. So he has to push Team 6, who is on people's radar, and has been playing scummily. He just has to rely on either me pushing Team 1 ruthlessly, or people wanting to kill me for whatever reason. Then, if the vote is close enough, a last minute switch would win him the game.
Furthermore, Foolishness hasn't been giving much analysis this game, if at all. The main piece of analysis here is on meeple. Which I previously stated was superficially agreeable yet in reality it was sketchy analysis. He does none of the usual fishing, jabs, or other provocative moves whatsoever in the thread aimed at gaining information. His only other "analytical" piece is a process of elimination move where he picks Team 2/6 for mafia.
All the hits on proponents of a Team 1 lynch could be fabricated to convince me that something is up with Team 1. After all, I'm the most vocal player here so far, so convincing me of something while opposing me in thread gains him credibility when I eventually get Team 1 lynched and they flip green.
My main worry right now is that I think Foolishness plays a much more passive mafia than he has played this game. Team 1's play is absolutely attrocious apart from the day 2 defense followed by a green flip. That's the main reason for me keeping them alive at this point.
Note that the stuff on Team 3 isn't pure analysis. It has a lot of weird logic in it. The main reason I see for Team 3 to be mafia is that Team 1/2 doesn't really fit. Foolishness fits a lot more in my opinion.
Main points:
1) Foolishness hasn't really been doing analysis, or at least, with the exception of meeple (sketchy analysis), he hasn't been posting it.
2) Foolishness hasn't been actively gathering information.
3) Pointing to Foolishness's willingness to lynch Team 6 doesn't quite work because a) he had few other options after my post-Day 2 comments. As long as he got one townie to vote me, he would still be safe with a last minute switch, winning the game.
[Vote]Team 3
|
Addendum: It is likely that Team 1 was still fiercely opposing my attacks on day 2 because they were afraid that Team 7 might flip mafia, making them the next target.
|
shit you know the foolishness thing does make alot of sense, like ALOT of sense to me. I was majorly considering it but team 1 seemed so convincing. Probably just blind with rage for lsb attacking me
i guess i can pull my vote off since i won't get mod killed and think about it for a while longer
##unvote
|
Foolishness's possible motive for going after Team 7 instead of Team 1 as I proposed on day 1:
He knew Team 1 was innocent. He knew how adamantly I was pushing Team 1 on day 1. He knew that opposing it could give him town cred in the future. With my accusations of team 7, it doesn't look all too suspicious for Foolishness because I'm pretty much at the head of the lynch. Causing some chaos, veering me off my course, and later trapping me with my own convictions on Team 1 gives mafia the easy win, as that's already two mislynches right there.
|
On September 29 2010 16:55 Divinek wrote:shit you know the foolishness thing does make alot of sense, like ALOT of sense to me. I was majorly considering it but team 1 seemed so convincing. Probably just blind with rage for lsb attacking me i guess i can pull my vote off since i won't get mod killed and think about it for a while longer ##unvote
You're a sheep. Both your team and team 1 are utter garbage.
|
|
|
i like to think of it as lackadaisical open mindedness
|
|
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Yes, you're right, that is weird logic there.
I still say team 2 is mafia over team 1 since it doesn't make much sense for team 1 to have been voting for their mafia buddy the other day. You haven't even commented on this "process of elimination" that I have posted about multiple times have you? I already said that it probably doesn't mean much to the rest of you but when it's plain obvious to me at the moment it's hard to say anything more.
At least team 1 has put in effort to defending people. When we were lynching team 7 they backed them up properly. If they were mafia (team 1) why bother putting up their mafia buddy as the other lynch, especially since RoL and BC looked really bad due to inactivity and lack of contributing. They could have easily just pushed for team 2 since team 2 was taking heat from the first day. Team 1 has made those long posts, has tried to figure things out. Have you seen team 2 do any of that from any of their 3 players? Not so much. SouthRawrea makes a semi-long post from time to time but that's about it.
Not to mention, I just went through 2 past games with each of these three. When they weren't mafia they were much more aggressive in their posting and calling people out. I haven't seen any of them perform as they did the last game when they were town. Almost all of their votes have been "yeah I agree with you, let's vote this guy", and Divinek just pulled it again after you accused me.
If you ask me, the choice between hitting you and hitting rastaban and I isn't an easy decision to make. That's probably debatable though.
And yes dude, I realize completely that I probably haven't been performing up to my usual town standards (although I thought my meeple analysis was sound at the time). And yes dude, I realize that rastaban hasn't really done anything in the thread this game. But I'm sitting here trying to figure things out and making sure that I'm not wrong about team 2. Team 2 hasn't done anything but blindly vote for anyone who's not team 6 (except when it was clear team 6 was getting lynched).
|
i was just hoping rasta was gonna pull out another analysis pegging me as mafia again so we could have an easy free mafa lynch. o well
im playing different in this game just because i generally feel lazier and the players involved in this game are pretty boring lol so there's no point in flaring things up. Why go out of my way to make big long posts when people are making them for me, especially when most of what they say agrees with my line of thinking as i go through the thread?
yeah it's pretty sheepish and looks bad, but i really do need to establish a lazy townie image for in future games when im mob and then i can say look i played shittily as town too! lol
i keep decent tabs on people i just never care to post them, that's why pm games are so much more fun.
oh bummian where for art thou
damn what a contentless post, ya lets lynch them team 2 jokers
|
On September 30 2010 02:37 Divinek wrote:
i was just hoping rasta was gonna pull out another analysis pegging me as mafia again so we could have an easy free mafa lynch. o well
im playing different in this game just because i generally feel lazier and the players involved in this game are pretty boring lol so there's no point in flaring things up. Why go out of my way to make big long posts when people are making them for me, especially when most of what they say agrees with my line of thinking as i go through the thread?
yeah it's pretty sheepish and looks bad, but i really do need to establish a lazy townie image for in future games when im mob and then i can say look i played shittily as town too! lol
i keep decent tabs on people i just never care to post them, that's why pm games are so much more fun.
oh bummian where for art thou
damn what a contentless post, ya lets lynch them team 2 jokers
LOL, you discovered my favorite past time, framing Div. Hey to be fair you weren't innocent when I did it as town
I am really surprised that team i&i suspects my Foolishness and I. Foolishness has been working hardcore as town. The mafia obviously is between team 1 and 2 but it is hard to pinpoint which it is right now. Both have good arguments against them. I have to admit though, Foolishness' arguments towards team 2 seems pretty good. All the votes immediately on team 1 surprised me though as i thought most peopel agreed 2 should be next.
|
Well, I didn't really have much suspicion towards team 6 until they counter claimed medic vs team 8. Thought the connection between 1 and 3 was pretty solid, but I guess not. Is there anything against being a sheep for a 100% confirmed medic? Team 3 would have had to hit team 8, as either team 1 or 2 hitting each other would be kinda suspicious... but then team 1 could have hit team 8 because team 8 was already set on team 1 (I didnt see alot of peopel agreeing to kill team 2 rasta). Its all wifom no matter how you put it, when scum hit team 8 last night.
I dont know shit about analysis, I tried it but I jump to all sort of conclusions apparently, but team 3 would have been a well played mafia team and team 1 would have been painfully obvious or just bad townieness. Both of them started votes on team 6. 1's never caught fire, and it seems like mafia could have won with an easy sway of the votes for the lylo lynch. Hell team 6 could have kept quiet and our team would have been completely behind a team 1 lynch then.
If there is a glaringly obvious reason for mafia to have taken this course being 3&6, I'll be happy to follow whatever team 8 says. If you want further input on anything Ill be happy to try to talk about it.
|
(Okay guys, sorry I didn't post for a while, was busy doing other stuff)
Team 6 claiming medic was to good to be true. I was so sure that Incog was scum, that I pushed away my past doubts about team 6.
Incog is obviously townie now. Although he has been wrong before about me and YI, his post makes a lot of sense.
Foolishness on the other hand has these posts yesterday
On September 26 2010 15:00 Foolishness wrote:
How about we just let bygones be bygones and all vote for team 2 eh?
On September 27 2010 00:36 Foolishness wrote:
Okay so let's see. One of team 6 and 8 is mafia. Team 8 wanted to kill team 1 the other day. Team 1 voted to kill team 6 yesterday (also made some analysis). I still don't think it's probable that the mafia would be voting for each other or posting analysis against each other at that stage of the game (why go through the effort when the town was misguided anyways?) This makes it unlikely that team 1 is mafia since they have a very weak connection to team 6 and team 8. Thus it seems that team 2 is probably the other mafia team, with either 6 or 8.
Of course this is all from my perspective (assuming I'm green). A big part of me feels like we should just kill team 2 now and let team 6 and team 8 duke it out over who's medic (the more time they have to argue the more obvious the real medic will become).
Notice that right now there is a 50% chance that his scum buddy will die, he has the taste of victory in his mouth and tries to make it 100% chance. He does indeed vote to kill team 6, but he probably anticipated that I would switch my vote if something seemed fishy
Although I haven't suspected them at all (Thank you Incog for bringing that to light). I'm going to think about this for a bit before voting. I'm now just really wary of the Team1/Team2 fight that was going to happen today, and it seems kindof influenced
|
Seriously though. Why would Team 3 be supporting us if they were mafia? If they went after us, they easily could get a free kill and get the game almost ended.
Put my position as Neutral for now
|
The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone.
Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6.
Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor.
Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before.
Vote Team 2
|
On September 30 2010 12:43 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone.
Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6.
Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor.
Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before.
Vote Team 2
I knew I would be busy so I stopped signing up for games, I signed up for this one a long time ago and kind of thought it was dead in the water, all of a sudden a lot of people show up and it was too late. I really owe Foolishness an apology as I am the one who asked him to play in the first place as my team mate but I haven't had the time to collaborate with him.
That said he has done a good job on his own spearheading the last lynch on team 6 so I there is little reason to doubt him. Unless he changes his analysis I assume he still thinks Team 2 is the mafia so...
[VOTE] Team 2
|
On September 29 2010 23:23 Foolishness wrote:
Yes, you're right, that is weird logic there.
I still say team 2 is mafia over team 1 since it doesn't make much sense for team 1 to have been voting for their mafia buddy the other day. You haven't even commented on this "process of elimination" that I have posted about multiple times have you? I already said that it probably doesn't mean much to the rest of you but when it's plain obvious to me at the moment it's hard to say anything more.
At least team 1 has put in effort to defending people. When we were lynching team 7 they backed them up properly. If they were mafia (team 1) why bother putting up their mafia buddy as the other lynch, especially since RoL and BC looked really bad due to inactivity and lack of contributing. They could have easily just pushed for team 2 since team 2 was taking heat from the first day. Team 1 has made those long posts, has tried to figure things out. Have you seen team 2 do any of that from any of their 3 players? Not so much. SouthRawrea makes a semi-long post from time to time but that's about it.
Not to mention, I just went through 2 past games with each of these three. When they weren't mafia they were much more aggressive in their posting and calling people out. I haven't seen any of them perform as they did the last game when they were town. Almost all of their votes have been "yeah I agree with you, let's vote this guy", and Divinek just pulled it again after you accused me.
If you ask me, the choice between hitting you and hitting rastaban and I isn't an easy decision to make. That's probably debatable though.
And yes dude, I realize completely that I probably haven't been performing up to my usual town standards (although I thought my meeple analysis was sound at the time). And yes dude, I realize that rastaban hasn't really done anything in the thread this game. But I'm sitting here trying to figure things out and making sure that I'm not wrong about team 2. Team 2 hasn't done anything but blindly vote for anyone who's not team 6 (except when it was clear team 6 was getting lynched).
So Team 1 wouldn't have voted for their team mate on day 1, Team 2 wouldn't kill their lifeline (me) last night, so Team 3 is mafia? Doesn't make sense to me why you would agree that Team 1 is innocent from your point of view.
I'm not arguing that Team 1 is mafia at this point. I'm arguing that Team 2 is equally unlikely.
Although you don't seem to buy the idea that Team 2 doesn't want to hit me. Really, just think about it. From their point of view, I've been blasting Team 1 all game. You've been blasting them the last day. Killing me gives the very likely chance that you will follow through with your words and vote them the next day. Team 1 also is going to want to save themselves and vote Team 2, so Team 2 has much to fear from killing me, as that would mean they are likely to die. If you think about it, all 3 days someone who accused Team 1 died. Someone wants Team 1 dead. Team 2 doesn't have the arguing capabilities to make that happen. And you aren't doing that either. Which means someone is expecting me to kill them. This makes more sense from your point of view than Team 2's point of view since Team 2 has an interest in keeping themselves alive versus Team 1. You, on the other hand, don't if you are mafia.
Yeah, Team 2 is normally more vocal and active when town. Pyrr is also more active and accusative when town. You also are sharper and more focused when town. Honestly given the day 1/2 events, mafia had little incentive to post unless Team 1 is mafia defending themselves.
I can see how Team 2's posting has been utter garbage. I can also see how your posting is suspect. Its just that to me, the night kills don't make sense from Team 2's point of view. That's why I can't vote them.
On September 30 2010 06:17 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2010 02:37 Divinek wrote:
i was just hoping rasta was gonna pull out another analysis pegging me as mafia again so we could have an easy free mafa lynch. o well
im playing different in this game just because i generally feel lazier and the players involved in this game are pretty boring lol so there's no point in flaring things up. Why go out of my way to make big long posts when people are making them for me, especially when most of what they say agrees with my line of thinking as i go through the thread?
yeah it's pretty sheepish and looks bad, but i really do need to establish a lazy townie image for in future games when im mob and then i can say look i played shittily as town too! lol
i keep decent tabs on people i just never care to post them, that's why pm games are so much more fun.
oh bummian where for art thou
damn what a contentless post, ya lets lynch them team 2 jokers
LOL, you discovered my favorite past time, framing Div. Hey to be fair you weren't innocent when I did it as town I am really surprised that team i&i suspects my Foolishness and I. Foolishness has been working hardcore as town. The mafia obviously is between team 1 and 2 but it is hard to pinpoint which it is right now. Both have good arguments against them. I have to admit though, Foolishness' arguments towards team 2 seems pretty good. All the votes immediately on team 1 surprised me though as i thought most peopel agreed 2 should be next.
This whole paragraph is just sketchy. Contradictions and sketchy generalizations everywhere. You're over exaggerating Foolishness' hard work. His contributions are quite superficial compared to previous games. His major contribution was stating he would be willing to kill Team 7 but not Team 1. His analysis is shoddy, and there isn't much of it. His vote on Team 6 was just too easy to be considered pro-town points for him. Mafia isn't "obviously" between Team 1 and 2. If you would like to back that up with evidence, please do so. You claim its hard to tell which of the two is mafia right now. Can you tell me WHY its hard to pinpoint which is which right now? You say both have good arguments, but seem to favor Team 2 right now. Why do you favor a Team 2 lynch? Why do you say its hard to pinpoint but seem to imply a (nonexistent) consensus against Team 2? Foolishness' arguments against Team 2 ignore my concerns about the night kill pattern. And that's the big issue in my book.
The thing that's missing here is that this is sloppy play all around. A Team 3 as mafia isn't acting like a mafia that will go along with whichever mislynch occurs. Perhaps that's because they don't want to be scrutinized for easy lynching, especially since they've been "skeptical" of the arguments on Team 1 all along. Perhaps they expected me to die to make it an easy lynch on Team 2 today but don't want to look suspicious by jumping to Team 1. I don't know. It just seems that people just don't care.
|
On September 30 2010 12:32 LSB wrote:
Seriously though. Why would Team 3 be supporting us if they were mafia? If they went after us, they easily could get a free kill and get the game almost ended.
Put my position as Neutral for now
Suddenly switching to supporting you after they've been opposing your lynch the whole time looks really sketchy and should make you very suspicious if you are indeed town. This would likely cause you to bring this fact to Team 2's attention, which could get Team 3 killed. The fact that I'm alive makes switching to you even a more sketchy move since he can't assume that I'm a sheeple. The fact that Foolishness's recent post shows that he doesn't really care possibly means that he knows hes doomed at this point. The Foolishness I know vigorously defends himself against shoddy (behavior) analysis, or vigorously pushes the lynch on someone scummy. It is possible that he just is unsure which of Team 1/2 is mafia given the poor play on all sides, but I find it more likely that he is mafia.
|
On September 30 2010 12:43 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone.
Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6.
Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor.
Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before.
Vote Team 2
Its not complicated WIFOM. Its simple WIFOM. The thing is, I don't think Team 2 is smart enough or active enough to pull it off in the event that I was dead. Arguing against Foolishness isn't easy. Especially when the case the case against Team 1 is sketchy with the Day 2 defense of YI/meeple and the out of the blue vote against Team 6 (mafia). Team 2 would have to be suicidal to want me dead, since I was stating my intention to lynch Team 1 the previous day. This is WIFOM, but I think the WIFOM isn't pure. Its weighted. The choice is, Team 2 is suicidal mafia, or Team 2 is trying to psych us out by thinking they're suicidal mafia. I don't think Team 2 is that smart to pull that trick off. Its also a risky move if nobody points this out, as I've explained above. I'm not inclined to believe that Team 2 is that suicidal. Foolishness doesn't have any redeeming values so far so I'm content lynching him. Rastaban's recent post is also super sketchy and doesn't help his case.
As it is, I probably should've pressured Team 2 and said I was going to vote for them and see if they brought up this argument themselves, but alas it is too late for that.
|
On September 30 2010 14:17 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2010 12:43 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone.
Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6.
Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor.
Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before.
Vote Team 2 I knew I would be busy so I stopped signing up for games, I signed up for this one a long time ago and kind of thought it was dead in the water, all of a sudden a lot of people show up and it was too late. I really owe Foolishness an apology as I am the one who asked him to play in the first place as my team mate but I haven't had the time to collaborate with him. That said he has done a good job on his own spearheading the last lynch on team 6 so I there is little reason to doubt him. Unless he changes his analysis I assume he still thinks Team 2 is the mafia so... [VOTE] Team 2
I've already explained why this doesn't give him the pro-townie points that you claim he has.
|
On September 30 2010 17:08 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2010 12:43 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone.
Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6.
Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor.
Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before.
Vote Team 2 Its not complicated WIFOM. Its simple WIFOM. The thing is, I don't think Team 2 is smart enough or active enough to pull it off in the event that I was dead. Arguing against Foolishness isn't easy. Especially when the case the case against Team 1 is sketchy with the Day 2 defense of YI/meeple and the out of the blue vote against Team 6 (mafia). Team 2 would have to be suicidal to want me dead, since I was stating my intention to lynch Team 1 the previous day. This is WIFOM, but I think the WIFOM isn't pure. Its weighted. The choice is, Team 2 is suicidal mafia, or Team 2 is trying to psych us out by thinking they're suicidal mafia. I don't think Team 2 is that smart to pull that trick off. Its also a risky move if nobody points this out, as I've explained above. I'm not inclined to believe that Team 2 is that suicidal. Foolishness doesn't have any redeeming values so far so I'm content lynching him. Rastaban's recent post is also super sketchy and doesn't help his case. As it is, I probably should've pressured Team 2 and said I was going to vote for them and see if they brought up this argument themselves, but alas it is too late for that.
Mafia don't always lynch based on who is accusing them, since people's opinions changed. You have already proved that your lock-in on us was not that strong since you're going after Team 3 now. By killing the medic the mafia would have had the game in the bag. Any of the remaining teams could easily have guessed you'd prot someone else and put in a hit for you.
If they had killed you... hmm I get what you're saying now lol. If you had died, I was pretty convinced of Foolishness's innocence yesterday and so would probably have gone for Team 2. I didn't even see that till now but I suppose Foolishness would have been able to figure that out.
Still, Team 2 might have been unsure about who you would protect and could put a hit on you thinking you would prot Team 2 or maybe Team 3. And I still think behaviorally they are the sketchiest based on votes. Foolishness is less active than usual but I think everyone is this game.
|
Reasons each team would try to hit team 8
Team1: Stupid?? Or hoping that people might try to go one level beyond and think 'well since incognito said he was for sure going to vote for us we'll kill him and people won't think we'd do something so obvious to kill someone attacking us.'
But it draws alot suspicion to them since he was attacking them + given their 'scummy' like play that made them more stuck out to everyone else.
Team2: Suicidal, retarded, blah blah. We're obviously the most suspect team, and thankfully someone decent at this game understands the rational despite our shitty play that we are most probably not mafia. Seriously killing incognito gains us nothing and only hurts us, we'd have been far better off hitting any OTHER team, would get us alot closer to a win if mafia
team3: They probably have the most to gain. Incognito cleared them as town, so if they hit him it might seem to not make 'sense' given that he has cleared them. That AND they were the first people on the team 6 wagon and they would know that when their obviously suspect team mate flips red they would get pro town points on top of incognito putting folishness' name in bold and green.
Obviously one of the other teams pushing for us is mafia, and the other team is just having a bit harder time seeing the light through our shoddy play.
|
|
|
On September 30 2010 19:05 Divinek wrote:
Reasons each team would try to hit team 8
Team1: Stupid?? Or hoping that people might try to go one level beyond and think 'well since incognito said he was for sure going to vote for us we'll kill him and people won't think we'd do something so obvious to kill someone attacking us.'
But it draws alot suspicion to them since he was attacking them + given their 'scummy' like play that made them more stuck out to everyone else.
Team2: Suicidal, retarded, blah blah. We're obviously the most suspect team, and thankfully someone decent at this game understands the rational despite our shitty play that we are most probably not mafia. Seriously killing incognito gains us nothing and only hurts us, we'd have been far better off hitting any OTHER team, would get us alot closer to a win if mafia
team3: They probably have the most to gain. Incognito cleared them as town, so if they hit him it might seem to not make 'sense' given that he has cleared them. That AND they were the first people on the team 6 wagon and they would know that when their obviously suspect team mate flips red they would get pro town points on top of incognito putting folishness' name in bold and green.
Obviously one of the other teams pushing for us is mafia, and the other team is just having a bit harder time seeing the light through our shoddy play.
I disagree with this. Until incognito started tossing WIFOM all over the place us and team 8 were though townies. This is evidenced by your whole team including you having your vote on the other team while team 1 has there vote on you.
ALL we would have to do is kill one of you and boom the other is immediately though the mafia team.
Hitting Us or Incog is smart play though if you are team 1 or 2 since you leave the other suspect team alive. Obviously we are not confirmed but I am somewhat amazed incognito is going for us. I thought his analysis was tiers above ours but it shows hindsight is 50/50.
I see now why so many people talk about when balancing a game if you have 2 top people in a game even when they are both town they try to kill each other off (probably because it is harder to read)
I don't get where Foolishness is acting different though, Go look at the PM game we played together, he played almost the same as this game.
in the end the mafia does reside in team 1 or 2, I think 2 makes the most logical sense.
|
it's like you quoted my post but didnt address anything i said
i dont get why you're team can't be mafia. Just because your team is not lazy and actually posts shit does not make them incapable of being mob. Drawing correct conclusions does also not make you town, always drawing correct conclusions in fact make someones far more likely to be mafia. At this point in the game it doesnt matter how you get any other team lynched as long as you do.
team 1 benefits the most from targetting team 6, because killing team8 makes them look bad although im not saying it's impossible, and killing team 2 would be stupid
we benefit most from hitting team 6 as well, because incog believes us and team 1 is suspect so we'd want them around
team 3 benefits most from trying to hit incognito because they want to keep both team 1 and 2 alive because we both look bad, however keeping incognito alive gains them the least, thus team 6 is most likely to be mafia based off of this action
did i mention how stupid it would be for us to hit team 8 if we were mafia? im sure i did, how the fuck could it be smart lol he is the only one who believes us.
you disagree with me but dont really address my evidence trying to pin you guys, makes me sad.
i should probably back this up with a vote huh
##vote team 3
|
fuck i keep mixing up team 6 and team 3
i meant to say team 3 for both of the times i said 6 lol
|
Honestly, from their posts, I don't think either Team 2 or Team 3 would be the type to pull off some elaborate plan. I'm going to look at it straightforward
In reality, everyone has an incentive to kill team 8. They are the medic, and as long as the medic is a alive, the mafia is going to have a harder time getting what they want done. In addition, Incog has been a pretty vocal townie. That's two strikes against him.
Even though Incog did say he was pushing for my lynch, Incog in this game is known for switching his vote around. Day 2 from 1 to 7, Day 3 from 3 to 6.
That leaves team 2 as much as a candidate as team 3. Both team 2 and team 3 was willing to off Team 6 yesterday. But Team 2 did it only after trying to off Incog / divert the vote onto me.
Straightforward, team 2 fit the role of mafia yesterday. That's why I'm going to vote for them
##Vote Team 2
|
i honestly don't know.. incog is way more convinced than i am. i've been sick the past couple days and not really thinking about mafia. ill try to read up and see what i think though.
how much time is left?
|
It ends at 21:00 CDT
Seems like less than 3 hours left
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I'm relatively confused on why you guys (Incognito in particular) think that we (team 3) have a higher chance of being mafia than any of the other teams. You've summarized my posts and said they were "sketchy" at best. That's great and all except somebody says that about me every game regardless of my role, and that's the best you've said about me. Compared to your analysis of team 1 earlier in the game or any of the facts said about team 2 it seems that rastaban and I should be the most confirmed as innocent if we are sketchy at best. Not to mention I thought you said earlier we were pretty much confirmed due to something or another?
The day when we lynched meeple, team 1 argued not to kill them because they thought they were town. That doesn't say much about what their role might be. However, they chose team 6 as a better lynch than meeple and company. It doesn't make much sense for team 1 to be mafia and accuse their mafia buddy like that. Especially consider that everyone was in agreement that RoL and BC were incredibly shady (I highly considered switching my vote from meeple to team 6, but didn't). If they were mafia, why try to deflect votes off of meeple onto their mafia buddy? They could have easily tried to push it on team 2 or us (team 3) given that rastaban and I have been relatively inactive and team 2 already had a bunch of arguments against them on the first day.
I look at this and say team 1 is probably innocent. I didn't need to look at someone's exact wording and call it "sketchy". As I've said before, since I know I'm town, this leaves team 2 as mafia.
Since you don't know that, why is team 2 mafia? Simple reason being they didn't vote for BC and RoL until after teams 8 and team 3 did. Yes I realize that neither did team 1, but they showed more signs of "let's try to figure things out" than "well better join the bandwagon so we don't look suspicious". Further more, team 2 has hardly done any analysis or thought posting of their own. If you look back, they have all frequently only voted for someone after seeing someone else doing it and saying "wow that makes sense you must be right" and not saying anything more. You can call my analysis of meeple "sketchy" (I thought it was fine, but I was a tad bit rushed) but at least I tried to post something that nobody else had, which is much more than team 2. LSB has at the very least tried analyzing people, and has been posting his thoughts. Pyrry's been a bit off, but keep in mind Pyrry just played a game where he spent the entire game (almost literally) spamming away my posts and trying to get my lynched because I was mafia, and he turned out wrong. Anyone who had done that and went into their next mafia game would be scared to call out anyone or do analysis because of their huge commitment mistake (I think I recall Pyrry saying something like "I know 100% certainty that Foolishness is mafia".
If team 1 is mafia, at least they deserve the win more than team 2. Not that that means much.
I've also noticed that team 2 has hardly done any actual defending. I'm defending myself while trying to show that team 2 is mafia. Team 2 is more or less not defending themselves, and trying to push rastaban and I as mafia. Wouldn't you agree it's much harder to defend yourself as mafia? I'm sure Pyrry could comment on this with his wonderful definition of "chainsaw defending".
Vote Team 2
|
I havent been pushing you, but I guess we are kinda forced to at this point. I think it's silly for both of you to go against what team 8 says so ill just point out this last thing.
Team 8 thinks it's team 3. Normally it would be fairly easy for team 1 as mafia to wrap up the game easier by just outing team 3 and going for a kill that could win them the game. Since they are pushing us, I think it's fairly reasonable to say they arent scum trying to find an out, but just townies doing what they think is right.
So that leaves us and team 3. And I think team 3 is jealous that we really dont have much to defend, except lack of analysis and useful posting, typical townie symptoms. None of the hits from our perspective make sense, and our votes arent great mafia votes anyway. So I guess we are supposed to defend ourselves against townie discombobulation (which we share ;D) and mafia desperation. Wow this is easy now, nice try team 3.
##unvote
##vote Team 3
sorry team 1 lewl -_-
|
Oops didnt read that postage fool
Well we havent planned shit. Straight out we went with the flow because we were still alive. Its kinda funny with all your slinking scummy really smart planning mindset and posting that our garbage apathetic vanilla 'meh' mentality is tying it up. What happens if it's tied? both parties die? That would be fine with me, because Im fairly certain town wins then, unless team 1 is mafia.
If Korynne confirms this, then that would be awesome, because then you cant win team 3 hyukhyukhyuk
|
On August 10 2010 01:39 Korynne wrote:
Voting rules:
5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first is lynched over the other person.
It looks like if it does come to a tie, the team that camps the day post will win.
|
ugh so it's literally up to me, i have the deciding vote. this sucks
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On October 01 2010 10:28 Infundibulum wrote:
ugh so it's literally up to me, i have the deciding vote. this sucks
Look at team 2 and their lack of wanting to figure things out. Even if you think I'm all "sketchy" like your partner, I'm legitimately trying to figure things out, and I have been this whole game. Team 2 has done nothing but agree with other peoples' analysis without posting their own. Look at how they voted for team 6. Rastaban and I were one of the first few people to vote for them. Why would we vote for our mafia buddies so early? Especially considering I had posted things saying I was suspicious of you and Incognito earlier. It would've been easy for rastaban and I to go against you. My original plan on day 2 was to lynch meeple and if he turned up green to get you lynched. Wouldn't have been hard for us to jump on you guys and agree with RoL. At the very least we could put our votes on you.
2 members on team 2 voted for team 1 as soon as the day started (bum and divinek). This was probably cause they thought it'd be an easy lynch since Incognito wanted to kill them. Yet as soon as Incognito says that rastaban and I are mafia, they both jump ship and agree. That should raise red flags.
|
Day 4
An alarm went off.
bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea bleed to death from a spike through the balls.
Infundibulum also bleeds to death from a spike through the balls.
(Incog has 3 votes now)
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
awww LSB and Pyrry
|
Protect: nobody
i.e. resign
|
sorry;; i havent been feeling well and fell asleep. woke up and saw this..
i really dropped the ball this time around
|
On October 01 2010 12:45 Korynne wrote:
Infundibulum also bleeds to death from a spike through the balls.
On October 01 2010 14:41 Infundibulum wrote:sorry;; i havent been feeling well and fell asleep. woke up and saw this.. i really dropped the ball this time around
On a spike?
|
I blame south and divine
good luck town ^^
|
|
|
Fuck you Foolishness.
Incog you have to guess their hit or we lose dude.
|
I blame Divine and bumat >.>
|
Clarification, no day post camping. I.e. when town numbers = mafia numbers mafia wins.
|
|
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On October 01 2010 16:45 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Fuck you Foolishness. Incog you have to guess their hit or we lose dude.
Nobody ever says that when they're town haha
|
On October 02 2010 01:06 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2010 16:45 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Fuck you Foolishness. Incog you have to guess their hit or we lose dude. Nobody ever says that when they're town haha
First time for everything, I guess? Except it's correct, so what's the problem?
|
On October 02 2010 03:37 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2010 01:06 Foolishness wrote:On October 01 2010 16:45 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Fuck you Foolishness. Incog you have to guess their hit or we lose dude. Nobody ever says that when they're town haha First time for everything, I guess? Except it's correct, so what's the problem?
Well played pyrr, lets see if they can guess your hit tonight
|
Its kinda obvious what I'm doing tonight? I'd like it if day was posted maybe an hour early so I can see who was mafia before I have to leave for the evening.
|
Day 4? 5? Oh whatever
This is the day post... dududu~ Or was it supposed to be night post... Anyway, the thing ended and now day starts.
|
|
|
Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill?
|
So I was right on Day 1. That's pretty sad.
[Vote]Team 1
Team 1 is 100% mafia because nobody died tonight. Mafia aren't allowed to no-hit and I protted Foolishness, so Team 1 is mafia. GG yo. I'll just quote my epicfail here for posterity:
Pyrr/LSB have had bad activity and haven't been pro-town at all. Granted, I attacked them very close to the beginning of the game, so the townie-defense-mode kneejerk reaction might well be the case. Their recent (in)activity might just be disgust of my attacks. The night kills totally don't look good for them. However, I'm looking at the day 2 lynch. I linked Team 7 and Team 1. Why would Team 1 be so outraged at the connection if they were mafia? They would have known Team 7 is innocent. Since I was going for Team 7 for lynch instead of Team 1, Team 1 shouldn't have any worries about the Team 7 lynch because Team 7's death would discredit my connection. Pyrr has the idea that I know Pyrr is mafia, therefore YellowInk is mafia. Let's assume he believes that that was my actual argument. As mafia, why would he care if an Innocent YellowInk is lynched? He doesn't. YellowInk flipping green is good for his case. Pyrr has no reason to discredit the link there, especially since we're going after YI before Pyrr. As Foolishness also said, Team 1 accusing Team 6 day one doesn't make too much sense unless they were feeling really desperate.
That bold part is a lie. From all the day 2 events, I must have mixed up people's posts and thought that Team 1 wrote this post. Should've been reading more carefully. If Foolishness should've pointed that out yesterday I would've so voted Team 1. Anyway, GG.
|
On October 02 2010 10:15 LSB wrote:
Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill?
No you can't, mafia.
|
On October 02 2010 10:16 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2010 10:15 LSB wrote:
Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill? No you can't, mafia.
What does korr say... o.o
|
Hahahaha epic.
So either:
A: Foolishness holds off his hit to become confirmed innocent, somehow guessing incog protted him (doubtful).
B: Mafia guessed correctly that we had no medics and got confirmed by double claiming and bussing their other team (more likely).
Vote Team 8.
|
Process of elimination
We arn't mafia
Foolishness isn't mafia
That leaves team 8. Incog
Vote Team 8
Incog have been holding off so that he can rest on his medic claim, they obviously double claimed
|
OHHHHHHHH lol I get it. Incog couldn't put the hit in last night because if he did it would be his 3 votes vs. Either Team 3's more votes or Team 1's more votes! Hahahaha infundibulum you awol fool .
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On October 02 2010 10:56 LSB wrote:
Process of elimination
We arn't mafia
Foolishness isn't mafia
That leaves team 8. Incog
Vote Team 8
Incog have been holding off so that he can rest on his medic claim, they obviously double claimed
Wait, how do you know I'm not mafia?
|
I never thought you were mafia. I considered the possibility for a second, but it was junk.
The double medic claim idea, however absurb, is actually a possibility, and I'm more willing to accept that than you being mafia.
It actually makes a lot of sense
Incog claims medic, I attack incog. Incog feels that he's in danger, so he gets his scumbuddy to claim medic and die for him.
Now Incog is all 'confirmed and stuff', and easily wins the game
|
Foolishness, don't immediately just listen to Incog. We can't afford for you to get this wrong. Incog pulled some seriously flashy moves, getting rid of a teammate that was pretty much singled out as scum, and now he's 'confirmed'.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Korynne said mafia cannot no hit correct?
|
On October 03 2010 06:42 Foolishness wrote:
Korynne said mafia cannot no hit correct?
She hasn't responded yet.
And obviously they can no hit, or else people would be dead.
I'm pretty sure that Deconduo did it in Caller's RAM game
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On October 03 2010 07:01 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2010 06:42 Foolishness wrote:
Korynne said mafia cannot no hit correct? She hasn't responded yet. And obviously they can no hit, or else people would be dead. I'm pretty sure that Deconduo did it in Caller's RAM game
Well I mean, multiple people have been saying for the past few days that mafia cannot no hit. If indeed they can opt to no hit, Korynne should have verified this in the thread.
And anyways why can't I be mafia? Incognito could just as easily be green posing as medic to save himself.
|
Uh, just wonder, can you give me some examples? (Besides Incog, and Infun of course). I don't know why Korynne hasn't verified it yet.
I guess if Korynne verifies it nows, it kind of kills any chances Incog has of winning. So maybe that's why she's keeping quiet
But what if your mafia? That means that you must have withheld your hit for two days straight, or Incog blocked your hits.
You wouldn't have withheld the hits. You have no incentive to. On the other than, Incog needs to withhold the hits as 1) He wants to seem like the medic, and 2) now if he doesn't withhold the hit, he looses.
If Incog blocked your hits, that means that he wouldn't support you, because he "protected" you last night.
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On October 03 2010 07:31 LSB wrote:
Uh, just wonder, can you give me some examples? (Besides Incog, and Infun of course). I don't know why Korynne hasn't verified it yet.
I guess if Korynne verifies it nows, it kind of kills any chances Incog has of winning. So maybe that's why she's keeping quiet
But what if your mafia? That means that you must have withheld your hit for two days straight, or Incog blocked your hits.
You wouldn't have withheld the hits. You have no incentive to. On the other than, Incog needs to withhold the hits as 1) He wants to seem like the medic, and 2) now if he doesn't withhold the hit, he looses.
If Incog blocked your hits, that means that he wouldn't support you, because he "protected" you last night.
Okay but this last night there were 3 teams alive. Let's say that Incognito is lying about being medic and that he's actually mafia. What does he have to gain from withholding his hit? If he kills one of us, he wins, since mafia wins when their number equals the town number. The only reason for him to withhold his hit is if he believed one of us is the real medic. But at this point if one of us was actually medic, we would have said something by now. Therefore he has nothing to gain from withholding his hit the past night. So Incognito cannot be mafia unless you want to step up and claim medic. As there are no PMs this game, there'd be no way for him to know without rastaban and I knowing as well.
|
On October 03 2010 00:52 Foolishness wrote:
Vote team 1
hehe
Whew. Thought there might have been an undisclosed traitor in this game.
|
On October 03 2010 07:31 LSB wrote:
Uh, just wonder, can you give me some examples? (Besides Incog, and Infun of course). I don't know why Korynne hasn't verified it yet.
I guess if Korynne verifies it nows, it kind of kills any chances Incog has of winning. So maybe that's why she's keeping quiet
But what if your mafia? That means that you must have withheld your hit for two days straight, or Incog blocked your hits.
You wouldn't have withheld the hits. You have no incentive to. On the other than, Incog needs to withhold the hits as 1) He wants to seem like the medic, and 2) now if he doesn't withhold the hit, he looses.
If Incog blocked your hits, that means that he wouldn't support you, because he "protected" you last night.
If the mod is modding in a way to give someone an advantage that's just wrong. Quit the act. Its been stated multiple times mafia can't no hit and they can't hit themselves. Give it up already please.
|
On October 02 2010 10:15 LSB wrote:
Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill?
No.
|
|
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On October 03 2010 08:00 Incognito wrote:Whew. Thought there might have been an undisclosed traitor in this game.
Well, I looked at the name of the host, and the name was "Korynne", not "Caller" =D
|
On October 03 2010 08:04 Korynne wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2010 10:15 LSB wrote:
Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill? No.
Awww Korr
GG guys then
|
[Vote] Team 1 thanks for the save
|
lol this game was full of failure.
GG guys
|
Basically todays entire plan was "Alright lets hope rastaban goes afk"
|
I apologize for not putting alot of time into the game, was pretty busy but thought I could still commit enough.
|
gg
Sorry for messing up... though I was probably going to follow my partner and vote team 3 so it might have been a good thing
|
So... town won? gg guys...
|
|
|
There isn't a post showing game over though.
|
Post game discussion?
|
This game was fun! I feel happy I didn't ruin the game this time via spamming! Yay for me not being bad! =D
Got pretty close there at the end, was getting scared. Just a couple things I noted:
1. LSB got too agressive on day 1. I don't know if you mean to try to get team 2 lynched, or just trying to put pressure off yourself, but that analysis was really bad in my eyes and really set me off onto thinking you were mafia.
2.Math is hard
3.Nice medic saves by Incog and Infun, they saved two people? Don't know why they saved team 2 that second day but they did say they were rushed.
|
Okay this was silly. xD
LSB+Pyrr should hit Incog the last night. If Incog self-protected, it's still 50-50 shot the next day. If Incog protects someone else they win.
So that's 1/3 50%, and 2/3 100% -> 5/6
Whereas this way they either win if Incog self-protects or protects them, and lose if Incog protects Team 3.
That's 2/3 100%, 1/3 0% -> 4/6
Silly people. >_>
|
yeah id have thought that was quite obvious
|
Isn't this the very definition of WIFOM. I mean if that is the case then Infun was silly for protecting us since they should have hit him. The whole point was that both sides were trying to guess what would happen. I think it is also unfair to say there was a 50% chance infun would have given them the win if he had self protected since he did protect us meaning he viewed us as more innocent than the other team.
As for LSB messing up, maybe he did but they lost due to 2 hits being blocked and not do to town voting them out when we could have so I don't know that I would call there actions a mistake. Maybe they were but the incorrect lynches were more of a mistake than anything LSB's team did.
|
|
|
LOL, that is great. I think Mafia would have won this if they had followed through on Chez's plan
On February 18 2010 12:18 Chezinu wrote:
I would hit the remaining townie. If he is protected I would roleclaim medic to the remaining townie and convince him that I'm the true medic. I obvious caught the last guy. Then I would spam GG mafia throughout the thread to sound convincing. I would be like taunt taunt taunt!!! It would be fun...
|
On October 04 2010 23:17 rastaban wrote:
Isn't this the very definition of WIFOM. I mean if that is the case then Infun was silly for protecting us since they should have hit him. The whole point was that both sides were trying to guess what would happen. I think it is also unfair to say there was a 50% chance infun would have given them the win if he had self protected since he did protect us meaning he viewed us as more innocent than the other team.
As for LSB messing up, maybe he did but they lost due to 2 hits being blocked and not do to town voting them out when we could have so I don't know that I would call there actions a mistake. Maybe they were but the incorrect lynches were more of a mistake than anything LSB's team did.
Dude, if Incog self-protected it would be 50/50, that's better that fucking yourself over. Period. This isn't WIFOM about hitting yourself or the other team, this is like, you should both target the medic.
|
Oh completely forgot about that, lol.
On October 05 2010 12:17 Korynne wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2010 23:17 rastaban wrote:
Isn't this the very definition of WIFOM. I mean if that is the case then Infun was silly for protecting us since they should have hit him. The whole point was that both sides were trying to guess what would happen. I think it is also unfair to say there was a 50% chance infun would have given them the win if he had self protected since he did protect us meaning he viewed us as more innocent than the other team.
As for LSB messing up, maybe he did but they lost due to 2 hits being blocked and not do to town voting them out when we could have so I don't know that I would call there actions a mistake. Maybe they were but the incorrect lynches were more of a mistake than anything LSB's team did. Dude, if Incog self-protected it would be 50/50, that's better that fucking yourself over. Period. This isn't WIFOM about hitting yourself or the other team, this is like, you should both target the medic.
That's all under the assumption that mafia's goal is to not immediately lose. If mafia is certain my best move is to protect myself but they're unsure of whether or not they'd get lynched the next day, they could have sufficient reason to just hit the other target for the instant win. Your probabilistic methods assume I'm going to flip a coin the next day to pick a lynch target.
All the endgame drama aside, I'm really disappointed by everyone's play including myself. The middle game was just a bunch of waffling and bad logic by me. Although nobody was really doing anything (except maybe Pandain/BB). Not sure if the inactivity was because of my aggressiveness or just general apathy. In any case, I'm not going to be playing again anytime soon. The team melee format is nice though so I'd like to see that continue, maybe on a larger scale next time Seems like TL mafia is running low on steam though...
|
I wasn't sure that it would be worth my playing because of how this turned out. I felt I had a good understanding of what was going on, I just didn't have the time to be convincing. It really sucked.
|
On October 05 2010 18:27 Incognito wrote:Oh completely forgot about that, lol. Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 12:17 Korynne wrote:On October 04 2010 23:17 rastaban wrote:
Isn't this the very definition of WIFOM. I mean if that is the case then Infun was silly for protecting us since they should have hit him. The whole point was that both sides were trying to guess what would happen. I think it is also unfair to say there was a 50% chance infun would have given them the win if he had self protected since he did protect us meaning he viewed us as more innocent than the other team.
As for LSB messing up, maybe he did but they lost due to 2 hits being blocked and not do to town voting them out when we could have so I don't know that I would call there actions a mistake. Maybe they were but the incorrect lynches were more of a mistake than anything LSB's team did. Dude, if Incog self-protected it would be 50/50, that's better that fucking yourself over. Period. This isn't WIFOM about hitting yourself or the other team, this is like, you should both target the medic. That's all under the assumption that mafia's goal is to not immediately lose. If mafia is certain my best move is to protect myself but they're unsure of whether or not they'd get lynched the next day, they could have sufficient reason to just hit the other target for the instant win. Your probabilistic methods assume I'm going to flip a coin the next day to pick a lynch target. All the endgame drama aside, I'm really disappointed by everyone's play including myself. The middle game was just a bunch of waffling and bad logic by me. Although nobody was really doing anything (except maybe Pandain/BB). Not sure if the inactivity was because of my aggressiveness or just general apathy. In any case, I'm not going to be playing again anytime soon. The team melee format is nice though so I'd like to see that continue, maybe on a larger scale next time Seems like TL mafia is running low on steam though...
BM asked me at the beginning what my plan was, and I said I was just going to chill Day 1 then on Day 2 start playing for real. When we died Night 1 I was like wtffffffffff we barely did anything :/
|
you should know you're a popular night 1 kill!
|
Eh... I thought it was a fun game... although some logic that was being thrown around was pretty silly. I think it's all the more dangerous when the game is so small... gg town anyways
|
On a curious note, I still can claim that I've never been lynched in a TL mafia game ever. Although I got really close this time
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj246/Vismaster1994/Mafia.jpg)
