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On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do?
At first I was scratching my head but realized that the scum will always hit a townie(or blue.) So that's 100%. So the chances of mafia killing a townie is 5/8, (instead of normal 5/6 since medic has an addition 2 he could protect which are mafia). By having him protect himself, mafia only have a 1/6 chance of hitting town instead of 3/8
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On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do?
Uh, what does your number mean? I got this
Chance of Medic Save
Medic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number)
Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5%
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On September 22 2010 10:13 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this Chance of Medic SaveMedic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5%
plus add the fact that the 2 mafia aren't going to be hit, which raises the 12.5% to (I think) 3/8.
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Okay.
If medic self protects, Mafia has a 1/6 chance of hitting the medic
If Medic randomly selects, the Medic has a 1/8 chance of selecting the mafia target.
If Medic randomly selects, but knows who the mafia is because he is super good at analysis. The Medic has a 1/6 chance of selecting the mafia target.
Of course. If you weight the numbers, if Medic protects someone else, and saves them, that's two people confirmed. So a weighted percent of 25%, better I guess, but it seems like a double or nothing
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On September 22 2010 10:16 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:13 LSB wrote:On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this Chance of Medic SaveMedic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5% plus add the fact that the 2 mafia aren't going to be hit, which raises the 12.5% to (I think) 3/8.
The medic doesn't know who the mafia isn't going to hit. The 1/8th accounts for if the Medic accidentally protects the mafia
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EBWOP, wait no hold on.
Math is hard! =D
Chances that medic will protect town(if he doesn't select himself) 5/8.
5/8 times 1/6(the chance mafia will hit a specific person). =1/8
chances if he protects himself
100% times 1/6
=1/6
LSB's right =D
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Uh...
Chances that medic will protect town(if he doesn't select himself) 5/8.
5/8 times 1/6(the chance mafia will hit a specific person). =1/8
5/8*1/6 =/= 1/8
5/8*1/6 = 5/48
Chance that the medic will protect town if he does random himself
6/8*1/6=1/8
Close enough!
+ Show Spoiler +
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@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
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On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote:
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
Umm...
That doesn't really make sense.
Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group
The mafia places a kill one of the hats.
The Medic has to guess where the kill is.
The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill.
Now, if the medic isn't picking himself.
There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic
There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person.
So 5/42
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On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote:
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
Alright so 10.71% is the chance that a medic will protect a townie who gets hit if medic does NOT self protect.
What I do is equivelent, as you first figure out the chance medic will protect someone who gets hit, and then add in the fact that 2/8 won't get hit. So basically just the chance of protecting a player, who gets hit, and happens to be town.
The chance he will succede if he does protect a town is greater since he will certainly protect a town. So...
100%(chance medic will protect a townie) *1/6(chance mafia will select them) =1/6.
1/6=0.166666667=~16 2/3%.
So there's an increase of about 6 percent. But now....
On September 22 2010 10:17 LSB wrote:
Of course. If you weight the numbers, if Medic protects someone else, and saves them, that's two people confirmed
Hmmm.... that's a good point, one whose benefit is not merely a percentage. Which arises the question, is the chance medic will protect someone else who gets hit(thus confirming two people) enough to outweigh the percentage increase in a medic save?
If medic self protects, theres a 6% higher chance he will succeede in taking the hit, but that will negate the chance that we will confirm two people(at least one with the medic still remaining hidden.). That is, unlesss mafia do a super sneaky move and don't hit to try to "confirm" a team(Are they allowed to not use their kp in this setup?).
So, should we do it and take the risk? Thoughts?
I can expand on this later once Korynne tells whether mafia can withhold their KP for a night.
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On September 22 2010 10:37 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote:
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit. Umm... That doesn't really make sense. Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group The mafia places a kill one of the hats. The Medic has to guess where the kill is. The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill. Now, if the medic isn't picking himself. There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person. So 5/42
I just told you I'm not calculating the medic strictly picking a target. I'm also adding in the 3/4 for the Mafia hitting the target to change it to the medic actually stopping a hit. Two different things here.
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Um, no
What I do is equivelent, as you first figure out the chance medic will protect someone who gets hit, and then add in the fact that 2/8 won't get hit.
The medic will have a 5/42 chance of the medic protecting someone who will get hit.
What do you mean by add in that 2/8 won't be hit? That's pointless. It's not like the mafia is going to hit themselves
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Okay, lets just stop arguing combinatorics.
Medic Protecting self:
Pro: higher chance of success
Medic Protecting other
Pro: could confirm two people.
Medic, pick what you want. Take a larger or smaller risk?
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All this math assumes both the medic and the mafia pick randomly, which you know they won't do.
If the medic is smart he'll read the thread and make his own judgement based off of that.
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On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check).
What if we don't have a cop? Well the medic can let us know (or keep that to himself if he thinks it would help mafia to know). Medic claiming, as you said, "is just a useless tidbit," it won't help mafia that much because the medic can just bluff and decide to say he will prot himself while protting someone else or say he will prot someone else and prot himself, etc.
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On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check). What if we don't have a cop? Well the medic can let us know (or keep that to himself if he thinks it would help mafia to know). Medic claiming, as you said, "is just a useless tidbit," it won't help mafia that much because the medic can just bluff and decide to say he will prot himself while protting someone else or say he will prot someone else and prot himself, etc.
Now of course mafia could fake claim medic or cop but the DT will never be at risk of claiming to a fake medic and can 100% check any tomfoolery. Maybe we don't have a DT, but any fake claim will give us a short list with at least half the reds on it. This is a small game so sorting out a fake claim could be troublesome but at least it will mean a lot of juicy discussion and if we are good we should be able to sort through it and use our judgment to find the faker and lynch them.
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On September 22 2010 10:53 LSB wrote:
Okay, lets just stop arguing combinatorics.
Medic Protecting self:
Pro: higher chance of success
Medic Protecting other
Pro: could confirm two people.
Medic, pick what you want. Take a larger or smaller risk?
Hmm... could also depend on how big of a profile the medic is. IE, if the medic is Team 2 maybe they are unlikely to get hit day 1 due to suspicion on them and less "prestige" so they will be safer protting someone perhaps more likely to get hit. Of course, the mafia may go after people unlikely to be protted just to get their hits through - I've certainly seen both strategies employed but here at TL, hitting the most prestigious (I won't say best) seems to occur more often at about a 3:1 ratio.
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I don't see anything in the rules barring mafia from hitting themselves. Highly unlikely but it does make protting someone else very very slightly less attractive since we don't know for sure they are innocent.
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Power went out, and we just got it back on so sorry for the late response guys. As for the medics action I don't think the numbers are so important as who is the medic. Every team has players who are have experience, and I think it is important to remember that they have will have a higher than average chance of picking off blues. if you are medic it is more important to try and out guess the mafia than to just play by the numbers. The mafia should win a straight up numbers game, it is the analysis that gives the town the edge.
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On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check).
this doesn't work, no PMs between teams.
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EPT
