EPTTL Mafia XXVI - Page 54
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
So LD RC'd Townie?...interesting. | ||
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
That being said, I'm waiting for the next post to harvest more clues  | ||
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
TheGilaboy # posts: 40 What he says: Opens up the game with some clue digging. Is wary of voting me in for being eager nad Darth because of LD's fast vote. Wants to hear more policy talk and considered voting for someone at random. Eventually becomes convinced I am pro town because of my massive posting. Defends deconduo's post timing because he is in Ireland. Calls out Misder for his random vote on BrownBear. Calls out Deucegladlier for lurking late in day 1. Night 1 he defends that he hasn't posted much substance (my callout on him) because he is noob and claims will try to be more vocal while noting that he is more trusting of DTA and I. Corrects pyr0ma5ta's burnatlarge to bumatlarge. Asks questions about how mafia stacking kills works. Agrees with ideas of people to remain wary and vigilant, but not overly aggressive. Questions why LD is painting a target on his back. On day 2 he goes clue digging noting that he doesn't think much blood would stay on a psi/warp blade. Recommends a clue check on himself as he doesn't know any other way to defend himself. Agrees with me that CompX/Deucegladlier/Tyranos_NiveK are inactive. Agrees with targetting inactives. Analyzes MooCow, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX + Show Spoiler + basically saying he wants to hear more from all of them. My thoughts: I read slightly pro town in his posting style, but only just barely leaning. To be honest, his posting style has continued to lack substance - unfortunately the analysis of the players he chose (by RNG he claimed) two were very inactive, the third so so. It's hard to get much insight from this. His defense is that he is new to the game. My advice to TheGilaboy: Post more substance. Be less afraid of being wrong and instead be more interactive and aggressive. Provoke reactions. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
At the start it seemed like he tried to even out the votes on all the candidates, including bear and zeks, by being overly suspicious of everybody. This would be great for mafia since their organized voting would then sway it in favour of whoever they wanted picked. He then proceeded to talk about medics and who they should protect. Also asks the question to the town who they think medics should protect and so on, would obviously be great information for mafia. He posted some player analysis, but all of them ended with "seems pretty neutral, could be either" or something similar. Most outstanding was DCLXVI which he thought to be mafia. He bandwagoned early with deuce as lynching target, but switched late to MooCow. Also his response to the vigi modkill seems a bit over the top. This is the most suspicious posting I've looked at yet, high chance of being mafia in my eyes. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
On June 09 2010 04:41 MTF wrote: crate - Still posting well. I don't like the numerous "I'm still here, don't worry" kind of posts, but the others he makes are quality enough for me to dispel most doubt. Would it be better if I said nothing at all? Those posts are worthless game-wise, but making them forces me to post afterward or get called on it, and with how tired I've been at night if I didn't make posts like that believe me I wouldn't be posting. MTF wrote: Anybody saying that they have "a lot of reading to do" or "have to catch up", and then fail to post anything later. This is nothing more than filler people, and innocent or not, you shouldn't be doing it. See? When I say I'm going to catch up, I deliver. It may not end up at the quality I'd ideally want because of time constraints or me taking longer to make connections than more seasoned players, but I do what I say I will. --- zeks wrote: I haven't personally gone through many Mafia games myself so I wouldn't know, but I would assume there would be a mix of active and inactive - and I still maintain that getting rid of the active ones is more important. If you know a mafia, you kill that person. Period. Town's goal is first and foremost to reduce mafia KP. Facts: Inactive mafia aren't gonna get any more obviously suspicious (unless by clues). Active mafia are either going to start making actually productive posts or they're going to be making not-town-productive posts and then it's on the town to realize this. They have the same chance of clue links. This isn't to say I have a problem with you looking at and targeting MooCow. I didn't personally find him terribly suspicious, but I can see the argument for it and the onus was on him to step it up and he didn't. Looking at active posters is important ... but go list the actives for me, and then tell me how many of the mafia you think are in that list? It's not gonna be all six. (As an aside: The last time you played mafia, every single member was inactive or posting nothing of substance for basically the entire game. The only one who even looked active was SuguiraMidori, and that was almost all bogus clue analysis and activity lists. I do think that Pyrry's game was an unusual case however; hence this being an aside). --- About LunarDestiny: Darth wrote: Things that stick out to me: -Cries for medic protection. Possible mafia move to take medic protection away from other people – he emphasizes this more than he needs to which is why it sticks out (even doing a follow-up wondering why he wasn’t hit. An “innocent” act imo) He could be an inexplicably paranoid town-aligned player as opposed to just being a mafia if you want to explain this. I don't think it's a good move, agreed. The Darth -> Yellow switch is more significant (he may have been following the crowd on this one. Is he a sheep-herded townie, or is he a mafia trying to follow the bandwagon?). He doesn’t like Yellow, or his play style, but he votes for him because of Yellow’s “poor logic” which says that a poster as active as Yellow is probably not mafia. The one from last night is an interesting situation because he said so himself – whoever makes the killing switch is going to look really suspicious despite being “baller”. The Darth -> Yellow switch didn't mean fuck-all because it was clear that you two were getting elected and I'm not convinced it matters too much whether (assuming for a second that one of you is a mafioso) the red gets Mayor or Pardoner. Similarly, every vote switch from Deuce to MooCow doesn't really mean anything (he wasn't gonna die anyway) ... until you (Darth) switch and then suddenly it's a real possibility. This one definitely means more because it mattered. I haven't had a chance to look back through his posts myself so I don't have an opinion on LunarDestiny yet. He's certainly not up there with MTF in terms of making his posts count, I know that much. I'll glance over his posts myself and say something before bed (see that MTF? I'll be back!). LunarDestiny wrote: Again, I strongly against having a dt check on me since it might not prove anything (miller/godfather). Better solutions are to trust me or lynch me and get it done with. If you know that a DT rolechecked someone and the DT was told "mafia" (let's ignore how you heard and why you trust the claim here) ... what do you do? Is there anyone who's been so obviously town-aligned that you'd bank on them being miller instead of mafia in this case? I agree that if you were mafia you'd probably have been a good choice for godfather though, so I'm not sure rolechecking would help here. If someone did check you and get red I'd be for lynching you immediately, but I have my doubts that that'd happen even if you are mafia. Darth wrote: Or, if you were actually a townie, you would say "DON'T WASTE A LYNCH ON ME, FIND MAFIA." Right, because that'd be real convincing. Ace says this game isn't about what you know, it's about what you can convince others to believe. I see nothing wrong with LunarDestiny explaining his actions and your one-line comeback adds nothing. How about considering whether his reasoning makes sense instead? LunarDestiny wrote: Now keeping me alive without doing anything is like adding a dead weight to town. Damn right if you don't do anything you're dead weight. But what makes you think you've lost the town's trust? I wasn't aware that Darth was the entire town. You are way too fucking swingy man, stop letting your emotions play this game for you. --- Darth wrote: We have to vote to use the double lynch the day before. So we'd have to agree on a double lynch on day 3, and we would use the double lynch day 4. A long process, but one I think would be good at this point. We should be able to get some good clues tonight / some more leads on people, etc. Re: double lynch If we don't use them soon there's not going to be much of a chance to use them in the future.... --- BrownBear wrote: The fact that my name is on this list is irrelevant to me, as I'm fairly confident I can defend myself well, and I have played very pro-town so far. Not sure you've convinced me of that yet (though you'd probably be higher than the average player on my likely-to-be-town list). :p <- SEE THIS SMILEY? It means I'm not entirely serious. BrownBear wrote: [B]ut to be fair, we [town] got murdered in Mafia XXII because we placed too much faith in rolechecks, and we happened to rolecheck all the millers, then lynch them for being mafia. I'm not saying your argument is without merit, because what you're saying absolutely true. We just have to remember it swings both ways. Do some math on that one. I'm not sure the better team wins every game in mafia because there's some "luck" involved (medic protections, DT checks, millers, etc.). If I'd been in that game I'd have gone off of Ace's rolechecks too because it was the correct decision. Again, if a DT check that you know comes from a legit DT turns up red, do you really advocate not acting on it? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
I'm trying to finish up some research for an upcoming meeting and then have a beach volleyball playoff game to play. Hope to come back and see mafia got medic blocked | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
On June 09 2010 07:02 Zyrre wrote: Analysis of onihuter. At the start it seemed like he tried to even out the votes on all the candidates, including bear and zeks, by being overly suspicious of everybody. This would be great for mafia since their organized voting would then sway it in favour of whoever they wanted picked. He then proceeded to talk about medics and who they should protect. Also asks the question to the town who they think medics should protect and so on, would obviously be great information for mafia. He posted some player analysis, but all of them ended with "seems pretty neutral, could be either" or something similar. Most outstanding was DCLXVI which he thought to be mafia. He bandwagoned early with deuce as lynching target, but switched late to MooCow. Also his response to the vigi modkill seems a bit over the top. This is the most suspicious posting I've looked at yet, high chance of being mafia in my eyes. As I recall, I was mainly suspicious of YellowInk (as were lots of other people), since he campaigned so hard and so fast. As for being kind of cautious about BB and zeks, I think that's natural since so many other people were feeling similarly (many even thought zeks was mafia). And about the medics and who they should protect, I wasn't asking for like specific names, just general principles that should be followed, largely to learn more about the game and previous trends. The fact that I thought a lot of players were "neutral" shouldn't be surprising at this point--it was pretty early in the game, and it's hard to have a strong feeling that someone's mafia (that's properly supported of course). Um...I was like 6th last to vote for deuce right before I switched. I can hardly call that "bandwagoning early." I also voted for deuce pretty late b/c I was out for almost the entire fire half of Day 2, as I mentioned in the thread. As for switching late to MooCow (3rd last), I had to mull over whether to change my vote. You can even see that, after zeks response to one of my posts, I was completely on the fence about the issue. I only changed my vote after AFJ gave me another reason to vote for MooCow, which, btw, was what I promised (switch if one more reason to vote for MooCow). My reasoning for voting for MooCow instead of deuce was thus: MooCow was ESSENTIALLY as useless as deuce, since he just echoed what others said while maintaining the facade of actually contributing and giving analysis. The late initiative to vote for him would also provide more information than deuce's death ("oh, he's townie. ok then."). The biggest point from AFJ that convinced me was his pointing out that MooCow overplayed the "newbie card." I think that's enough to justify my change, but, if you don't, feel free to question me further. | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
Most people who know me IRL can attest to the fact that I'm rather "over the top" reaction-wise about these kinds of things (i.e. something ridiculous occurring). Why's it over the top anyway? o.o;; Sorry if it seems like I'm overreacting to Zyrre's post, but, you guys, please actually check if his facts are straight before buying his analysis. | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
How could you say I was "evening out the votes?" I was pretty much in favor of voting for DTA the entire time...And since DTA was winning by a pretty big margin for most of Day 1, I don't think that qualifies as an attempt to even out the votes lol | ||
flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Before MooCow gets first vote: TheGilaboy: LaXerCannon (12:48) pyr0ma5ta (07:35) CompX (09:43) Deucegladlier: Deucegladlier (04:52) YellowInk (07:11) crate (09:39) LunarDestiny (10:35) Misder (12:07) littlechava (12:21) Zyrre (18:08) DarthThienAn (18:47) + Show Spoiler [MooCow was voted once before bandwagon] + After MooCow was voted once before getting the 2nd vote: TheGilaboy: LaXerCannon (12:48) pyr0ma5ta (07:35) CompX (09:43) bumatlarge (05:49) new vote Deucegladlier: Deucegladlier (04:52) YellowInk (07:11) crate (09:39) LunarDestiny (10:35) Misder (12:07) littlechava (12:21) Zyrre (18:08) DarthThienAn (18:47) BrownBear (01:46) new vote Thegilaboy (02:52) new vote onihunter (03:04) new vote deconduo (04:06) new vote Hugoboss21 (04:23) new vote DCLXVI (04:34) new vote MTF (04:39) new vote MooCow: AcrossFiveJulys (00:16) new vote + Show Spoiler [The rest of the votes] + The rest of the votes: TheGilaboy: LaXerCannon (12:48) pyr0ma5ta (07:35) CompX (09:43) bumatlarge (05:49) Deucegladlier: Deucegladlier (04:52) YellowInk (07:11) crate (09:39) LunarDestiny (10:35AM) unvote (10:56PM) Misder (12:07) unvote (06:28) littlechava (12:21) Zyrre (18:08) DarthThienAn (18:47) unvote (10:42) BrownBear (01:46) unvote (08:09) Thegilaboy (02:52) onihunter (03:04) unvote (10:33) deconduo (04:06) Hugoboss21 (04:23) DCLXVI (04:34) unvote (06:01) MTF (04:39) MooCow: AcrossFiveJulys (00:16) DCLXVI (06:01) revote Misder (06:28) revote BrownBear (08:09) revote zeks (09:15) sputnik.theory (09:34) onihunter (10:33) revote DarthThienAn (10:42) revote LunarDestiny (10:56) revote IF situation 1 (TheGilaBoy town and Deuce town) Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia has no incentive over who to lynch (although they would prefer lynching the more active TheGilaBoy. During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet has two choices of either deuce or MooCow. MooCow is a better target since he is the more active poster. Mafia who voted would not recast their votes to avoid attention. IF situation 2 (TheGilaBoy town and Deuce mafia) Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia would choose to lynch TheGilaBoy. During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet would choose to vote MooCow. Mafia who voted also would choose to recast their votes to MooCow. IF situation 3 (TheGilaBoy mafia and Deuce town) Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia would choose to lynch Deuce. During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet would have no incentive choosing to lynch Deuce or MooCow (although they would prefer lynch the more active MooCow). Mafia who voted would have no incentive to choosing to lynch Deuce or MooCow (although they would prefer lynch the more active MooCow). IF situation 4 (TheGilaBoy mafia and Deuce mafia) Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia would have no incentive choosing to lynch TheGilaBoy or MooCow (although they would prefer to lynch the less active Deuce). During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet would choose to vote MooCow. Mafia who voted would choose to recast their votes to MooCow. As of now, this information is pretty useless. This is an useful reference when we know the alignment of either TheGilaBoy, Deuce, or both. Corrections are welcome. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
Observation 1: holy fuck he has lots of posts in this thread.... Since I can't recall and I really don't feel like digging through a couple hundred posts: LunarDestiny, have you played in a mafia game with clues before? Have you read through past mafia games with clues? This isn't really relevant much I suppose though I'm curious. --- I'm not sure I agree with his general thoughts on how mafia goes from my experience reading games here in TL, but regardless I don't think that LD realized early on that this game is not a game like the ones he'd played in before.... I don't think this is really a deliberate attempt to mislead the town. I do agree that inexperienced mafia are probably likely scared to put themselves in the spotlight and I'm fine with his vote on YellowInk, though it already foreshadows his very ... tempestuous, almost ... play in this game. He's posted a mix of stuff that I feel is very legit and stuff that I think is way out there. The fact that he's so obviously swinging around, committing himself ... I dunno, it's too obvious for me in a game like this. He's talking a lot in absolutes (and his clipped posting style accentuates this ... I get the feeling he's not a native English speaker from it). A couple quick examples: + Show Spoiler + Like I said before, mafia being Mayor is pretty much a GG. So I beg you guys to vote for Yellow Ink or change your vote to Yellow Ink. At this point, I am very certain that both Darth and YellowInk are pro town (darth with his pm to inactive and yellowink for his posting behavior). If Deuce is town, I want to apologies to LaXer and Pryo and will consider they 99.7% pro town. Will probably take a more passive role from now on as my decision making is crap right now. ... there's a lot more in Day 1 and Day 2, but I didn't want to compile them all for want of space. His day 2 vote is completely innocuous beside the vote-change from Darth. Darth's vote is a swing of six votes from Deuce to MooCow; LunarDestiny and Darth are essentially the only people who voted for MooCow when there was a legit chance for him to die. What really gets me here is that there are legitimate points to make about LunarDestiny; he's very swingy, his game advice is suspect + Show Spoiler + Mafia has a number of 6. So if they run for election. Their votes will be 6+others voting for them (who have no clue that they are voting for the mafia) which is HUGE. Assumes that all mafia will vote for their own candidate; MTF has brought up a couple times that this is emphatically not true http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=127781¤tpage=14#273 The medic protection bit; he misses that YellowInk covered that already I also want to suggest an alternative that might be very controversial. To lynch the pardoner on day2. This way, we eliminate the possibility that the mafia running for mayor but fail and get the pardoner role. This is just an alternative that we can use depending how the voting goes. The timing on this is bad and it's generally bad play to go out and actively waste a lynch to possibly prevent ... wasting a lynch? There's more, some of which stem from the fact LD's past games have a very different playerbase and no clues. But I think you get the idea here I think he's trying way too hard to force himself into the spotlight and stay there though to be mafia, and he seems to have at least screwed his head on enough to not give up on the game like he suggested. He's had some flawed logic at times but he hasn't tried to press it on anyone.... A couple good posts, for reference: + Show Spoiler + Additional suggestion when reading clues: You know in movies, the most obvious clues that point to someone are often false. We can apply some of it here and expect that some clues were put in to mislead us. What I want to say is we can't believe that every clues are helpful and the only way to certify a clue is the use of clue check. This matches up with my experiences, though it's odd that LD himself jumps at clues more than this post suggests he should. He's at least looking at voting patterns, as seen by the voting times thing on Day 2 and now the Gilaboy/Deuce/MooCow vote post above. If you use this logic on mafia then you will have a hard time finding the mafia: The town accuses someone of being mafia. That person does not respond therefore not mafia. If the mafia is reading the thread, sees that no response = not mafia ...? Think about that for a second. Lying about the medic protection is very dumb if he is the mafia because role check would expose him. There is the possibility that he is the Godfather who is somewhat immune to the rolecheck but I don't think Godfather would want to take that risk especially so early in the game. If he is Godfather, I will give him the "balls of steel" award. Etc. There's more, but I already closed most of the posts and I don't want to look again  2 minutes till day .... | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
I never played a mafia game with clues before. No, I am not a native speaker. Well, night is ending and I don't know if I have to thank Darth for accusing me of being mafia which makes me a bad target for the mafia. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On June 09 2010 11:09 LunarDestiny wrote: To answer some of your questions: I never played a mafia game with clues before. No, I am not a native speaker. Well, night is ending and I don't know if I have to thank Darth for accusing me of being mafia which makes me a bad target for the mafia. Yeah, this was actually my secret method of keeping you alive for at least another day =] | ||
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
On June 09 2010 11:11 DarthThienAn wrote: Yeah, this was actually my secret method of keeping you alive for at least another day =] =) LD is such a good sport. | ||
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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