EPTTL Mafia XXVI - Page 53
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YellowInk
United States578 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
When examining my case, you have to ask yourself why he did this? The best prove of my innocence is probably the mayor election. I won't take much credit for Darth being elected as mayor (although I was his second vote), he was trusted by the town to begin with. For YellowInk, can I take some credit for him being the runner up? My choice of supporting him is correct, because he turned out to be one of the most helpful poster. Now, for the explanation of asking for medic protection. I thought I was attracting a lot of attention. If the mafia wants to find a target, I might be a likely target so I asked for medic protection. From day 2 onward, I never asked another medic protection because I realize that the death as a townie, rather than a blue role, benefits the town. I argued against lynching TheGilaBoys, because the reasons for lynching him is very flawed. My choice for lynching Deuce is because he was a better target in comparison. Lastly, my switch to MooCow. I will say that choice is 50/50 since we don't have solid evidence that either is mafia. Weighting inactivity against possible suspicion, I finalized the lynch because I don't think anyone else is willing to be that final person. I never thought I will hide anything for town and tried to play as explicit as possible. If you guys thinks that is some kind of mind game, I won't argue with that. Again, I strongly against having a dt check on me since it might not prove anything (miller/godfather). Better solutions are to trust me or lynch me and get it done with. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On June 08 2010 22:50 LunarDestiny wrote: It is to the mafia's benefit that a medic waste his night protect on a mafia to decrease the chance that mafia's target be killed. uh.... you mean, to increase the chance. If I am really a townie as I claimed, it is to the town's benefit that I take the mafia hit for our blue role (damn Icysoul and your wasted day kill ability). True to an extent, but a) most townies don't play sacrificial lamb and b) I'd rather have an active townie than an Icysoul. Everyone can make chart Darth missed a critical reason for this. In the last mafia game I played (Bang Bang Mafia) where I was the godfather, I also made some kind of charts for town and the mafia as well. In the mafia thread, I stated that if I make the chart about who can be who, the mafia's version of the chart would be better than town's chart. you made a chart last game? Oh, for the mafia. Well, yea, that IS something I missed. Your charts help the mafia more than the town! Less content posts and high post counts are always the characteristic of my post If you check the past mafia game I played (3 kingdoms and bang bang), you will see that my posts are very similar to posts to this game. I think I gotten better after each game I played so my content in this game might be even better than my previous two games. You were town in 3K, and mafia in bang bang. hmm... eh. This defense is iffy to me. My playing style is somewhat different Even though this game has clues pointing to mafia, I don't emphasis too heavily on them because the clues are vague and can be very misleading. I only relate to them if I want to make a counter claim. I prefer to use behavior analysis and other kind of analysis (like voting timing, activity in game, reaction to post) that are somewhat unique. Same here. Which is why I like your style. But you haven't even (iirc) offered up all that much behavioral analysis. After the result of night 1 that I might have wasted a medic protection, I decided that I want the town to win even if it costs my life. I have regularly pointed out my actions in this game are very suspicious because I had too much influence on the game. If you wanted to save a blue role, why'd you cry for medic protection  . OK, let's say you had a change of heart after night 1. But, in my opinion, night 1 was good for us. Only 2 people died, and they were regular townies. Pretty good for night 1.I started both bandwagon for Darth and YellowInk (who both I still believe are pro town because of pming to inactives (who the confrimed barth is dead as a townie) and posting history respectively). I prevented a possible bang wagon of lynching TheGilaBoys because the lack of concrete reasons for the lynch. Looking back, I never really state very good reason for lynching Deuce except for his inactivity and almost zero contribution to town. But I kind of rallied the bandwagon for lynching him because I think he is a better target than TheGilaBoys. I changed my vote to MooCow not because I have my reason doing so but my feeling that Deuce is mafia is not strong and others have strong belief that MooCow is mafia. Fair enough. Now what to do for me: 1)I can be more passive and not start any band wagon in the future. And deal with my case in a later time. 2)A detective could probably clear me of doubt being mafia. I don't recommend this before the Miller is still not to be found. As the number of people alive in game decreases, my chance of being a miller increases. Again, a dt check still doesn't clear me 100% because there is still the suspicion of me being the godfather. Either way, I think detectives should use their checks on others. 3)Lynching is the third choice. My influence on the game is debatably the highest in the game. I still feel good about my influence on the election. But my influence and decision on day 2 lynch turned out to be bad. Maybe if we lynched TheGilaBoys or Deuce, a mafia will be killed. To clear confusion in town, the best possible decision is the lynching of myself but it will waste a lynch. The alternative is to do a double lynch of me and another person so that the is will be quicker to lower the kill power of the mafia and to avoid mafia having more influence to the lynch voting. 1) irrelevant 2) why are you so concerned that you might be miller? Worried that DT check might return SCUM? But you're right, no DT check is 100%. 3) Your "influence" ... tbh, I'm not sure about this. People like MTF, I'm sure about their "influence" or contribution to the town. But even with your many many posts, I'm not sure if you've contributed all that much. Playing the "resigned player" card again? =p. "Oh I'm going to die night 1." "Oh lynch me, but it'll be a waste" On June 09 2010 03:15 LunarDestiny wrote: Shit, why was my respond to darth that bad? Time to reiterate. When examining my case, you have to ask yourself why he did this? The best prove of my innocence is probably the mayor election. I won't take much credit for Darth being elected as mayor (although I was his second vote), he was trusted by the town to begin with. For YellowInk, can I take some credit for him being the runner up? My choice of supporting him is correct, because he turned out to be one of the most helpful poster. Yellow contributes quite a bit, but that doesn't necessarily make him not mafia. You two could easily be mafia together. This is unlikely though since you tore him up so much in the beginning. What's more like likely is that he is town and you are mafia jumping onto his ship because voting for him will put you under less suspicion than the bandwagoners who voted for me. Now, for the explanation of asking for medic protection. I thought I was attracting a lot of attention. If the mafia wants to find a target, I might be a likely target so I asked for medic protection. From day 2 onward, I never asked another medic protection because I realize that the death as a townie, rather than a blue role, benefits the town. It's true, you never asked for protection again. But maybe that's after you guys failed to even kill 3 people, or even 1 blue, night 1 =p. I argued against lynching TheGilaBoys, because the reasons for lynching him is very flawed. My choice for lynching Deuce is because he was a better target in comparison. A reasonable explanation, but anyone who was around could have done the same. It wasn't hard to defend TGB - all you needed say was "lynching inactive > lynching clues" Lastly, my switch to MooCow. I will say that choice is 50/50 since we don't have solid evidence that either is mafia. Weighting inactivity against possible suspicion, I finalized the lynch because I don't think anyone else is willing to be that final person. Weren't you the one who said "I would never lynch MooCow or TGB over Deuce"? But yeah, I'm not going to focus too much on that last lynch since it was a difficult situation. I never thought I will hide anything for town and tried to play as explicit as possible. If you guys thinks that is some kind of mind game, I won't argue with that. Again, I strongly against having a dt check on me since it might not prove anything (miller/godfather). Better solutions are to trust me or lynch me and get it done with. zz. Or, if you were actually a townie, you would say "DON'T WASTE A LYNCH ON ME, FIND MAFIA." >_> On June 09 2010 03:18 LunarDestiny wrote: Also forgot to say, I am being sure I was the first to roleclaim (with pm) to both darth and yellowink as townie since I made no hesitation after being asked to do so. Roleclaims are taken with a grain of salt (is that the expression?). Roleclaiming townie to us, no matter when it happened, doesn't clear you of anything. In fact, roleclaiming so early might incriminate you even further. | ||
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 09 2010 02:21 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Look YI, I feel bad about the MooCow situation but I don't think it hurt us any more than lynching deuce would have. I'm not going to be doing things any differently just because of it. My post was more of whether we should ask vigi(s) to hit someone or whether we should ask them to hold off for tonight -- because we've done neither afaik. I would hope that if you are a vigi and are trigger happy tonight you've selected a very good target. Otherwise, as YI said, my opinion is that you hold off. Vigilante could hit Deuce. But that might be a bit of a waste - it gives us a tiny bit of information, whereas we could save the hit for later. I also lean toward no, save it. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Its possible that there was only one vigi, and his failure may have just put us in a deep hole. I'm hoping there's 2, but I agree with what AFJ and Yink said - unless you have 100% solid evidence you're going to shoot a mafia, save your nightkill for another time. Darth, in response to why I voted for MooCow: On June 08 2010 05:16 BrownBear wrote: Im pretty sure at this point that Deuce knows hes boned, so he's not even trying. It might be strategic to switch our vote off of him to someone else, and see what his/other peoples' reactions are... This is on page 45, when I was realizing that killing Deuce really only gave us a dead Deuce. It didn't really give us much else to go on. When I switched my vote to MooCow, I was hoping that MooCow would die. Here's what his death gives us: We now have a list of people who voted for MooCow that we can analyze. The fact that my name is on this list is irrelevant to me, as I'm fairly confident I can defend myself well, and I have played very pro-town so far. Like MTF said, however, this is a good STARTING point, not the super important all-6-mafia-are-on-this-list-kthxbye list. In addition, we now have the people who chose NOT to switch their vote off of Deuce. Some people, like crate or YellowInk, gave good reasoning backing up their decision to stay on Deuce. Others had excuses, such as they voted for Deuce then posted that they would be gone the rest of the day due to RL reasons, which is understandable. Many people, though, still have yet to post a solid reason, and others were very vocal in trying to throw Deuce under a bus. In essence, MooCow dying and flipping green probably benefited the town much more than Deuce dying, flipping whatever color, and giving us no information. From this point forth, here's what I want to see happen: If you voted for MooCow, give an explanation, similar to mine, as to why you did. Not just "because AFJ said so" or "because I was following the bandwagon", but a solid reason why you wanted him to die. The people who can't answer this question should be analyzed more carefully than the people who can. If you kept your vote on Deuce, explain why you did. If you have already, you're clear, but for those of you who haven't, I'd like to know why. Also, if you were one of the people trying hardcore to lynch him, explain why you did so. If you were part of the random-ass bandwagon on TheGilaBoy, can you explain why you voted for him too? Ideally, this should all happen today, before the night actions get resolved, so that we have a lot of stuff to analyze tomorrow. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
sputnik.theory: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 12 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 1 - After Role PM's: 1 - After Day 1: 3 - After Night 1: 3 - After Day 2: 4 Posting Summary: After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Nothing stands out. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Mentions he's played Mafia before, but, being new to TL Mafia, uses Darth's little intro thing as a way to seperate himself from the inactive list. Later uses logical arguments to agree with lynching inactives. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Is called out as being one of those people not talking much. Defends himself saying that there isn't much to discuss early on in the game. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Posts the two-Mafia theory for Day 2, implicating MooCow, Tyranos, and myself. Last post is about not being caught up with the thread/wishes he had more time. Vote Record: Mayoral: DarthTheinAn (16th out of 17) First Lynch: MooCow (6th out of 9) Possible Relations: With: Not With: YellowInk, MTF, Against: Verdict: I think he's just a(n overly) cautious townie at this point. pyr0ma5ta: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 18 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 2 - After Role PM's: 2 - After Day 1: 2 - After Night 1: 1 - After Day 2: 11 Posting Summary: + Show Spoiler + After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Playfully indicated that he'd vote for LunarDestiny. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Talks about needing to catch up. Copy-pastes bumatlarge's clue list, whilst saying that he isn't sure how much stock we should put into clues at that point in time. However, he goes on to use the clue list to eliminate zeks and YellowInk as reliable runners, ending up with his vote going to DarthTheinAn. Also mentions that he'd like to lynch YellowInk first. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Responds to being called out as inactive in an aggressive way. Lists out his general feelings about a few people. Thinks YellowInk is more likely Mafia than not, likes LunarDestiny, messes up bumatlarge's name, and finally points a clue LaXerCannon's way. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Calls me semi-inactive. :p Brings up the possibility that I didn't actually take the hit. Supports the evidence against TheGilaMonster and debunks the evidence against CompX. Disagrees with lynching Deucegladlier in favor of people whom we have more evidence against. Supports double lynch being used early on, advocates suspicion of all. Points out a legitimate flaw in LunarDestiny's logic, the two exchange arguments for a bit. BrownBear jumps into the fray on LunarDestiny's side. Asks town a few times why everyone seems to suddenly trust Darth/YellowInk. Vote Record: Mayoral: DarthTheinAn (13th out of 17) First Lynch: TheGilaBoy (2nd out of 4) Possible Relations: With: Zeks, DarthTheinAn Not With: LunarDestiny, BrownBear Against: YellowInk Verdict: A few actions, particularly the support of the early double-lynch despite being against lynching inactives, as well as the middle-road activity make me a little wary. I'm leaning towards him just being a very suspicious/eager-to-get-his-ideas-out townie, but definitely keep an eye on. deconduo: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 13 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 1 - After Role PM's: 1 - After Day 1: 4 - After Night 1: 1 - After Day 2: 6 Posting Summary: After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Nothing of note, other than that he had the very first reply after roles went out. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Remarks on the poem in his profile (+ Show Spoiler [stolen "rough English translatio…] + Silence road girl milk Can I go to the bathroom? And fox. I like cake. Cake (and Sharon Ní Bheoláin). I am wearing a jumper. There are clouds in the sky Give me cake. Cake. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Says he'll do his best to report on players, even though he doesn't really know what he's looking for. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Disagree's with lynching people based off of clues from the last Night cycle. Reiterates that he's against lynching off of today's clues, says we should go after some more inactives. Vote Record: Mayoral: DarthTheinAn (4th out of 17) First Lynch: Deucegladlier (8th out of 10) Possible Relations: With: Not With: YellowInk, Littlechava, AcrossFiveJulys Against: Verdict: Feels more or less as he's portraying himself; busy dude who is trying to generally keep up. Leaning towards townie. bumatlarge: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 20 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 2 - After Role PM's: 1 - After Day 1: 9 - After Night 1: 1 - After Day 2: 7 Posting Summary: After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Provides a neutral argument on lynching inactives, concludes by saying that first-day clues should not be enough to lynch anyone off of. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Wants a mayoral candidate without clues linking to them. Makes a suspect list based off of the first day's clues. Various theory-type posts about mayor. Eventually says that YellowInk posts too much/too aggressively to likely be Mafia. Later post is an odd, seemingly confused jumble at the beginning regarding YellowInk being exempt from rolechecks. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Just responds to YellowInk, saying that it doesn't take too much to contribute. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Says that it is likely that I am legit, but does mention the possibility that Mafia purposely stacked hits so that one of their own could come forward. Supports the vote against TheGilaBoy, citing clues over the dead-end route of Deucegladlier. Gets confused by the late vote-switching. Vote Record: Mayoral: YellowInk (6th out of 9) First Lynch: TheGilaBoy (4th out of 4) Possible Relations: With: Tyranos_Nivek Not With: Zeks, YellowInk, DarthTheinAn, LaXerCannon, Hugoboss21, Misder Against: Verdict: Iffy on him at this point. A few posts are good, some are the easy-content posts you expect from Mafia, and a few (guessing the posts from the phone) are just "muddy". A bit odd that he seems to sort of flip-flop on the clues being important, but it's not enough to be condemning or anything. | ||
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
agreed. I've already explained myself, had a similar reason - more info yo. The person whose reason I'm DYING to hear is of course.... Deucegladlier, lolol. People I don't recall reasons for (but this is just my memory): littlechava Zyrre TGB (he may have just been voting for not himself) deconduo Hugoboss21 MTF (? maybe he did) DCLXVI sputnik.theory onihunter (I remember he said he switched, as promised, but I don't remember what he promised) Oh, and everyone the TGB list too. Yeah. This is just my memory though. Don't be offended if you're on the list and had a good reason lol. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
and dont even bother lunar i bet i could write the same thing darth did about everyone in this thread. dont get me wrong darth thats a very impressive analysis, but its founded on posts and assumptions. mafia can say anything and analyze jst as well. The only concrete information we can get is through roles and lies. if we can catch a lie and get DTs builing up a foundation of checks that he can issue through a mouth, then ill start making assumptions on a persons motives when the actual heat of being accused is brought on someones shoulders. it should be after this night that dts have built up something, or else stumbled on 2 mafia which would make for a huge turnaround. again posting from a phone so i apologize, i just dont want this kinda mindset enveloping the town when i get back. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
Trust: YellowInk - Posting hasn't really changed that much since the mayoral election, and has been trying varying methods to acquire information for town-side. DarthTheinAn - Same as YellowInk. crate - Still posting well. I don't like the numerous "I'm still here, don't worry" kind of posts, but the others he makes are quality enough for me to dispel most doubt. AcrossFiveJulys - Pretty much the only reason he's here for me right now is because of the way he approached me claiming to be hit. It was concern beyond just the fact that I'd claimed to be hit, and there was nothing real to be gained as Mafia to engage me in that way, at that point in time. Don't Trust: bumatlarge - Too many posts are unconvincing in their content, and possible clue connections. littlechava - Same as bumatlarge. Anybody saying that they have "a lot of reading to do" or "have to catch up", and then fail to post anything later. This is nothing more than filler people, and innocent or not, you shouldn't be doing it. Read, then post. Not post, then read. On June 09 2010 04:32 DarthThienAn wrote: MTF (? maybe he did) I wasn't really for lynching either of them, but preferred getting the minimally active person out to the relatively innocent looking MooCow or to TheGilaBoy, whom people wanted to hang based on clues (which simply aren't enough yet). | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Also, HAPPY BURFDAYYY  | ||
flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
Happy birthday bumatlarge! | ||
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On June 09 2010 04:38 bumatlarge wrote: I dont think saying "dont rolecheck me because mof millers and gf" really helps you arguement as everyone can make that excuse, and by that logic rolechecks are useless becaue you cant be sure, which is bullshit because our entire strategy this game has revolved around "feelings" and "pretty sure" guesses. and look at all the mafia weve killed so far with our brilliant logic. Well, I mean, I don't think LD is worth wasting a rolecheck on. I don't know if I said anything else about that. Stepping away from LD for a sec, in general, as a DT, I would trust my rolechecks. Assuming 2 Millers in the game, you have like a 10% chance (maybe 15ish now) of hitting either of them. And rolechecks should always be supplemented with posting behavior. I mean, DTs shouldn't be rolechecking randomly, they should be rolechecking based on the posts in the thread. So yeah. To the DTs: go with your gut on your rolechecks. and dont even bother lunar i bet i could write the same thing darth did about everyone in this thread. dont get me wrong darth thats a very impressive analysis, but its founded on posts and assumptions. mafia can say anything and analyze jst as well. The only concrete information we can get is through roles and lies. if we can catch a lie and get DTs builing up a foundation of checks that he can issue through a mouth, then ill start making assumptions on a persons motives when the actual heat of being accused is brought on someones shoulders. it should be after this night that dts have built up something, or else stumbled on 2 mafia which would make for a huge turnaround. again posting from a phone so i apologize, i just dont want this kinda mindset enveloping the town when i get back. That took me awhile to understand lol. I read: "dont even bother, lunar, i bet i could write..." instead of: "dont even bother lunar, i bet i could write..." Anyway. Of course it's founded on posts and assumptions... what else would it be founded on? I read posts, and I interpret them. Then I look at the big picture. That's what analysis is.. And, well, if we waited around for our blues to do all the work, we would lose pretty easily. >_> which is why we do analysis. And tbh, from where I'm standing, LD don't look so good right now. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
im sorry about the confusion of whether clues are important, i feel thats what dts should use to start with and build, and to use for estimated lynches. im reluctant to embelish their importance because no one expects me to condemn myself when things pop up about victims looking into mafia related subjects when that scenario seems pretty common regardless of layton. if something like the printer clue led to yellowink, then id put the noose around my own neck. (by the way please tell me a dt has clue checked that to be sure) id rather follow clues though then unbased opinions of one another. though mtf you're more experienced then me and if clues really are that strong then lets follow that path. anything is better then what im seeing. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
im sorry about the confusion of whether clues are important, i feel thats what dts should use to start with and build, and to use for estimated lynches. im reluctant to embelish their importance because no one expects me to condemn myself when things pop up about victims looking into mafia related subjects when that scenario seems pretty common regardless of layton. if something like the printer clue led to yellowink, then id put the noose around my own neck. (by the way please tell me a dt has clue checked that to be sure) id rather follow clues though then unbased opinions of one another. though mtf you're more experienced then me and if clues really are that strong then lets follow that path. anything is better then what im seeing. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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Thegilaboy
United States2018 Posts
On June 09 2010 04:24 BrownBear wrote: If you kept your vote on Deuce, explain why you did. If you have already, you're clear, but for those of you who haven't, I'd like to know why. Also, if you were one of the people trying hardcore to lynch him, explain why you did so. I'll go ahead and explain why I kept my vote on Deuce. My reasoning for getting rid of deuce was three-fold: 1. If he was a townie, he was not helping us at all. He was making no effort to make analyses of either clues or posts. Instead when he did post, it was pretty much trash, and put a big question mark on him as a part of the town. 2. If he was mafia, he was doing an extreme job of trying to stay in the shadows, and pretty much was asking to get lynched at that point. 3. Being an inactive is terrible for the game in general. He was doing the very bare minimum to keep from being modkilled, and those contributions meant nothing for the game as a whole. Mafia or town it was bad form to take up a slot in the game and "contribute the way" that he did. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
1)called for medic protection on day 1. 2)changed my vote on both day. Can you explain why this is mafia like? I was on the winning side both times and yet I switch. If I want to not attract attention, I could stayed with my votes. 3)don't give good analysis. When I do analysis, it is probably to validate my decisions. If this is mafia-like to you, then I can't argue with that. That is just how I have been playing even for the last 2 games. Now keeping me alive without doing anything is like adding a dead weight to town. If I am town, I can't do anything productive since I had lost the town's trust. If I am mafia, I might pose a lot of problems in the future. | ||
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DCLXVI
United States729 Posts
On June 09 2010 04:32 DarthThienAn wrote: @BrownBear's post: agreed. I've already explained myself, had a similar reason - more info yo. The person whose reason I'm DYING to hear is of course.... Deucegladlier, lolol. People I don't recall reasons for (but this is just my memory): littlechava Zyrre TGB (he may have just been voting for not himself) deconduo Hugoboss21 MTF (? maybe he did) DCLXVI sputnik.theory onihunter (I remember he said he switched, as promised, but I don't remember what he promised) Oh, and everyone the TGB list too. Yeah. This is just my memory though. Don't be offended if you're on the list and had a good reason lol. Hey, I was the first one to switch my vote. I'm just the cool kid and everyone copied me Seriously though, I felt that if Deuce was willing to vote himself out of the game then he might get modkilled later on and was 95% not mafia. Instead of wasting a lynch on him I would rather attack my list of somewhat active neutral opinion people who are much more likely to be mafia. Moocow was the only option because I did not suspect TGB at the time. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
No idea if I would have changed or not, but I don't think I would have. Deuce just wasn't and still isn't good for the town. | ||
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