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Korynne: I completely understand what you're saying about possibly being burnt out etc. However, I think you're a very clever player. You played your first game as a very active townie, you played your second game as a very active mafia, and being very convincing at that. I'm inclined to think that if you got mafia again in this game, you might play it exactly the way you are. Fake being tired of Mafia as an excuse to post less. Unfortunately for all of us, there's little you can do at this point to remove suspicion from yourself. Anyways, I'm genuinely hoping you're mafia, and that you're burnt out routine is an act, because you seem like a good player to have around.
Radfield, my inactivity is neither indicating of me being mafia or town. You know I can play a good mafia game with activity. =P
Unfortunately I am not mafia (but hey, I would say that in either case so I guess that's something stupid to say), but I will be around, more in smaller games and definitely in the process of creating a very custom game which I intend to host. So I will be around, but probably not anymore in games larger than 10 or 15. =P I'm just burnt out at the moment, not a general I won't play mafia again type situation. xD Just maybe sitting out one or two to relax for a bit and focus on creating my own game.
Oh hey, I probably sound like Bill Murray in his first mafia (godfather) game. =D
In any case, like I said, I will try to be more active. On lunch break right now, will post analysis on the top 3 or 4 suspects of the day when I get home.
(Actually I have no idea how good my analysis is because as townie in the first game I had no idea whether it was right, though I did have a suspicion that Incognito was dragging town around xD, second game I was mafia so all my analysis does not apply anyway, and I realized it's quite easy for townies to do stupid shit that makes them look like mafia. =\)
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
First thing that jumps out at me is if you believe the mafia didn't intentionally pick the same number (on 6 or 8 no less), JeeJee and Darth are not mafia together.
That's a good point. JeeJee and Darth are likely not mafia together. JeeJee is less likely overall given the fact that he possibly shares numbers with Sidesprang. It is possible he lied about them. Worth checking the time stamps on all the number claims to see if he was totally in the clear when he posted his numbers. If he was, it gives that defence less credibility.
Either Scamp or Darth are good targets. I don't mind lynching either one.
Whoever the medic is out there, be sure to roleclaim if you are going to be killed by the town, whether it by lynching, CV or suggested SK hit. As far as I'm concerned, the medic is very very likely pro-town. Unfortunately this quickly lowers the possible people the medic could be, and makes his/her death-by-mafia much more likely. Lets just hope there's a meth-man out there as well to keep the mafia honest.
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
By the way guys, I'm actually the inventor!
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On May 07 2010 01:59 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +First thing that jumps out at me is if you believe the mafia didn't intentionally pick the same number (on 6 or 8 no less), JeeJee and Darth are not mafia together. That's a good point. JeeJee and Darth are likely not mafia together. JeeJee is less likely overall given the fact that he possibly shares numbers with Sidesprang. It is possible he lied about them. Worth checking the time stamps on all the number claims to see if he was totally in the clear when he posted his numbers. If he was, it gives that defence less credibility. Either Scamp or Darth are good targets. I don't mind lynching either one. Whoever the medic is out there, be sure to roleclaim if you are going to be killed by the town, whether it by lynching, CV or suggested SK hit. As far as I'm concerned, the medic is very very likely pro-town. Unfortunately this quickly lowers the possible people the medic could be, and makes his/her death-by-mafia much more likely. Lets just hope there's a meth-man out there as well to keep the mafia honest.
I already checked the time stamps. The people who could have plausibly lied are JeeJee and Falcynn. Scamp technically could have, but he would need serious guts to have done so.
That's why I think we are basically stuck with a coin flip between the two unless someone has a strong case to go for one over the other.
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Actually, I'm kind of confused why people suspect me right now. There's a whole lot of analysis and then I'm thrown in there as a good lynch target.
Has my play been anti-town at any point? I don't think I've seen much evidence of that. Just a list of people I find (or used to find) suspect.
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On May 07 2010 02:51 Scamp wrote:
Actually, I'm kind of confused why people suspect me right now. There's a whole lot of analysis and then I'm thrown in there as a good lynch target.
Has my play been anti-town at any point? I don't think I've seen much evidence of that. Just a list of people I find (or used to find) suspect.
I think it's more that you haven't done much which seemed pro-town and your suspect lists seem like they are pretty off base.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I still say Darth. He is higher on the list, meaning he likely has a strong power then Scamp. Of course this is bad if he's town, but at this point I think we need to play to win. Not play to not lose.
As I see it, if Darth flips red we lynch Scamp. If Darth flips green we lynch JeeJee.
This is all fairly weak reasoning though, so if someone has a better reason to lynch someone else I look forward to it.
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still writing >.> my post'll be up... maybe in an hour
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Citizen style this game also just seems so obviously scummy, (right down to the pointless arguing with you, when you are very obviously in my eyes non-mafia) that I'm inclined to think him a townie. If pressed I would take him off the non-mafia list, but I don't think him all that likely to be scummy.
Pretty convoluted statement, even if I like the conclusion. Anyway, two comments:
1. I did not argue pointlessly - I tried to clarify why Qatol wanted an invention over another. In the end he agreed a machine that could only kill reds and the SK would be the better option. That sort of consensus was worthwhile fighting for, if we had any half-reasonable person as inventor.
2. Calling out people I think are making statements which are contradictory with their stated role is what I always do. It bothers me when a pro town person does not accept a simple argument to help the town. Every single game pointing out these inconsistencies leads to reds - even if it takes a while to get to the truth, and even when the player making the mistake is good (for balancing purposes SOME good player(s) are always red). If you think this is not how I play, read any of my past games, from Micro-Mafia 1 to Mafia XVI.
I am OK with Darth as a lynch target, but like Korynne more. I can't get over how all over the place her original plans were. Long and seemingly trying to help, yet nonsensical at the same time. Effort went in to write them, but not really to think them through very well. Example under the spoiler. I will vote with whoever gets a majority of those two.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 02 2010 04:40 Korynne wrote:
I don't know. But if any of the first two are mafia we're pretty screwed with this plan. If I was mafia I'd rather let BM or L die, and then have double kill power for the rest of the nights. BM can only hide for 1 night if he isn't the inventor. L can hide for 2 since vigi can't kill first night. Then next night we go oh shi--- mafia killed two people at night. And we can't even prove anything for sure, like if L takes Jack of all Trades, he can hide for 3 nights, or if town votes for the vigi hit to be on a townie during the night there's no reason not to just go ahead and do it.
And then if we get paranoid of his role, he might've picked meth man instead and we all go omg we gotta check him and boom, all our investigators are dead (so let's please at least coordinate the rolechecking guys).
So I'd say BM's role is pretty safe, in terms of he's outed the second day if he's not inventor.
L's is the one I'm worried about, if he is mafia then he can pick meth man or jack of all trades and then when he finally gets outed like 3rd or 4th day then they have already easily secured the double lynch.
Foolishness' role is pretty safe for town too, in terms of well if he tries to roleblock he gets killed.
Why did you choose to place the compulsive vigilante role as second, Qatol?
Also what are your thoughts on having somebody closer to the back of the draft claim copy cat? This way we know if mafia decides to steal it, and if they do we offer them up some "useless" role. I would suggest someone taking the Floridian at the end, just so we can lynch that person if copy cat is taken. Floridian being useless
This way if copy cat is not mafia, then mafia will have to kill someone less significant the first night. If copy cat was mafia, it would still be pretty hard for them to do anything since town is watching them. So if compulsive vigilante dies first night, then we just treat copy cat as him instead. So really I see no drawbacks to this idea.
Now to pick a copy cat, and to pick the Floridian. I suggest the following format:
We want them to be closer to the back of the line, since we're wasting ability to get good KP/investigative roles if we put them in the front. So I suggest picking from 16 onwards.
So I select:
18. Zona to be the Floridian.
17. Scamp to be the copy cat.
Since both these roles are heavily controlled by town (and the Floridian is pretty much "useless") it wouldn't make sense for me to give these roles to my partners if I was scum, since Floridian pretty much kills one of 4 mafia roles, and the copy cat is controlled by town like the first couple roles.
Any issues with this?
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The only problem with Korynne being mafia is that Foolishness would have to be mafia too. Remember that compvig was never actually confirmed, though if Radfield is telling the truth then there is one in the game (or we have a very sly mafia Joat).
Now that BM is confirmed inventor, for Korynne to lie about not getting compvig that means that Foolishness did not pick it. If Foolishness did not pick compvig then he would have no reason to lie to us at this point except if he's mafia.
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+ Show Spoiler [Qatol's post] +On May 07 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 01:01 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 06 2010 22:35 citi.zen wrote:On May 06 2010 19:09 Radfield wrote:
I have been shot at and saved by the medic. Good work medic.
Likely scenario:Foolishness kills Jspazz, Mafia shoot at me, SK kills Bill Murray.
If you think about it, BM was a bigger threat to the SK then anyone else in the game. Considering that the only way the SK can get found is either the tracker or BM's inventions.
Interesting claim that you got hit and were protected. There is only one medic in the game (at most). They could be red I suppose, but if they aren't, this would be a very hard claim to fake since someone would know you are lying. So this moves the needle a bit more towards your innocence in my mind. And it certainly means you are NOT the SK - which is nice to know. As far as BM - yes, I think he was a threat to the SK, in particular if he made some invention along the lines of what we suggested. It would provide a 3rd person with a way to find the SK and also kill them (assuming Ace allowed it to work like that). Speaking of finding people - would a townie ever take the godfather role? That and the role-blocker are much stronger in mafia hands. On May 06 2010 15:50 Bill Murray wrote:
good game guys. i was going to not invent anything as if i was a mafia i'd obviously invent something and give it to the mafia. by way of not inventing anything, i was proving to you all i was innocent.
i hope you all win. Wow, the likelihood of us lynching you for this move was decently high... oh well Yup, Bill changed his style, but isn't a better player unfortunately. In particular, when he is town he continues to be a big time liability. If he made no invention, I was going to vote for him 100%, which would be a wasted day. Given he was going to not make anything, it's actually a good thing the reds chose to kill him instead of someone else. Well... it doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't the SK. All it means that the medic actually DID protect him, or else he's taking a risk in assuming that there are no medics left in the game so that he won't get called out. However, to me, he's 99% pro-town. Hobbes and JeeJee seem to know something that no one else knows - either both of them are town, or both of them are mafia? Well... that's not necessarily true, but both of them think the other is of the same alignment at least. 1 could be mafia tricking the other into believe he is innocent using the role that they picked. As for my "fading out", I've been reading pretty relatively regularly... well not "regularly" but frequently I think. I post when I have something to contribute, or have an idea. Plus, stuff happens. We all have lives =p. On May 06 2010 19:25 Radfield wrote:
OK, lets look at some potential suspects. Foolishness certainly gets a pass for now, no reason to worry about him as long as he keeps shooting properly. But, I think it likely the mafia would have had someone put down 1 as there number, so....
Korynne: A lot of theorycrafting early on, but posting less and less as time goes on, barely contributing at all as far as our lynch suspect or compvig hit. She has continually mentioned that killing her off for info is a good idea. She voted 6th on the Sidesprang lynch with very little analysis. We would gain a bit of info from her death(if she's red then foolishness and citizen are almost certainly green) but not much
Korynne, I'm pointing the FoS at you. I don't have a great case, but I'd like to hear you on the record with who you find scummy and why, and who you think we should lynch/compvig today.
Also, I think it very unlikely that Qatol is mafia. Serial Killer maybe, but that goes for anyone at his point, no matter how pro-town they've been. Qatol basically got sidesprang killed by revealing that he went for copycat and missed. I can't think of any good reason for sidesprang's or qatol's actions if they were mafia buddies. I'm not sure the mafia would've put someone down as 1. I mean, we basically had two or three people claiming they were going 1, 1 early right? I know L said that. It seems silly for them to waste their time doesn't it? The only reason I see them doing it, is they are assuming that only one person would pick 1,1, so they want to deny that person getting first pick. Okay without Hobbes/JeeJee as mafia and without anyone who picked 1 as mafia, and I'll take out yourself and radfield you are basically saying the mafia are 3 of these 4: Opz, scamp, zona/citizen, and myself. Is that an accurate assessment of the situation to you?
+ Show Spoiler [Radfield's post] +On May 07 2010 01:23 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 00:12 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
JeeJee, I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about. It would be nice if I could PM you to be sure, but I think we're on the same page here. In that case, I'm pretty sure you're also town-aligned Well, as far as I'm concerned this takes both Hobbes and JeeJee off the short list. They might both be mafia together, but in that case one will lead us to the other. Qatol, I was re-reading those posts I put up this morning, and I was a little bit confused as to why I put Citizen on that non-mafia list as well. The reason is this though, pretty much everyone on my suspicious list has called out citizen as potential mafia. Citizen style this game also just seems so obviously scummy, (right down to the pointless arguing with you, when you are very obviously in my eyes non-mafia) that I'm inclined to think him a townie. If pressed I would take him off the non-mafia list, but I don't think him all that likely to be scummy. As far as Falcynn, my sole reasoning is that he immediately agreed with my origional post about sidesprang, and the way he worded everything strikes me as town. No one else had agreed with me about Sidesprang yet, and yet he was still the first one aboard. I think a mafia would have been slightly less ok with it. The post I'm referring to: Show nested quote +On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: Show nested quote On May 04 2010 21:08 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler +2b Falcynn wishy washily claimed VANILLA without actually doing it Alright, I guess I should clearly state, I'm a vanilla townie. I decided not to make mention of it since . Was preparing for/doing this on Friday/Saturday http://www.filmracing.com/Cities/sanfrancisco.htm and missed the role claims because of it. I'll make a blog of it Thursday night/Friday since we're not allowed to upload our video until after the screening (yeah, this is really more to just get attention for my future blog post then to actually explain myself ) Anyways, as for lynching sidesprang, you're logic seems pretty sound, I guess at this point with all the information that's been gathered, it'd be nice to make sure whether or not everyone at the top of the list has been telling the truth about their roles. If we can get a day vig hit then that might help, although I'm not sure if we'd be able to figure out another lynch target and pile the votes on them in time. It'd suck to essentially waste a day vig hit by not getting the lynch to add to it =/ On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: oh right ##vote sidesprang ## Korynne: I completely understand what you're saying about possibly being burnt out etc. However, I think you're a very clever player. You played your first game as a very active townie, you played your second game as a very active mafia, and being very convincing at that. I'm inclined to think that if you got mafia again in this game, you might play it exactly the way you are. Fake being tired of Mafia as an excuse to post less. Unfortunately for all of us, there's little you can do at this point to remove suspicion from yourself. Anyways, I'm genuinely hoping you're mafia, and that you're burnt out routine is an act, because you seem like a good player to have around. Show nested quote +Who do you think is the strongest candidate for mafia on that list? Cases have been made against JeeJee and Scamp so far. Out of the other players, both Darth and Korynne started out strong, but have really faded due to recent inactivity (which is actually a pretty strong scum tell usually). I don't believe Hobbes was super active at any point in the game? What do you think about OpZ? Korynne is a good target, because I think despite her alignment, she told the truth about being Vanilla. So worst case scenario we kill a vanilla townie who isn't that upset about being killed anyways, but gives us a lead to Foolishness maybe. Best case we get a vanilla mafia. JeeJee and Hobbes should get a pass for today, but if a bunch of other targets turn up innocent, we might have to hit them both. At some point the information they are sharing needs to be made public. If we don't hit a mafia with our lynch or comphit hit today, and the SK hits another townie, we'll need as much info as we can get. If we had to lynch one of them, I'd go with JeeJee I stand by what I said earlier about Scamp, but if we decide to lynch him and he is the medic, then he needs to roleclaim. If no one contradicts him, then we call off the lynch. Keep in mind, the medic is basically a confirmed townie, and pretty much a confirmed non-SK. I can't see why the SK would take medic as a role, though perhaps to deny it from the town, perhaps because it gives him/her a convenient cover. ~opz~: I think Opz threw me off his trail by his vehement defense when I called him out. He just seemed outraged that I was wasting time by putting him on any suspect lists. What made me suspect him was how he tried to sidetrack my Sidesprang argument, but looking at it now makes me think it was just a knee-jerk reaction of seeing his name on a suspect list. I also buy his story of trying for CompVig and failing. Likely Vanilla either way. Personally his posting makes me think he's town. I put him as a second string lynch target for now. DarthTheinAn seems suspect. He made a case against ~opz~ early on. Votes for Jspazz over JeeJee for the CV hit. Try's to give Scamp a pass for being TOO mafia. None of these things necessarily make him a mafia. But his posting in general smacks of mafia to me, I recommend everyone look through his posting. Points out lots of obvious stuff, steers the convo away from certain people, lots of theorycrafting early on, not much talk about voting later on. Darth seems mafia, and seems like he might lead us to other mafia. I vote we lynch DarthTheinAn, If he flops red, then I propose we Compvig Scamp, and ask the SK to hit JeeJee ##Vote DarthTheinAn##I haven't really talked about Zona, but I really don't have much to say about him. He seems fairly legit and is likely working hard on the zbot.... I didn't proofread as I've run out of time and steam. If there's anything I said that doesn't make sense please point it out.
Alright. Let me explain myself, hopefully in full.
I personally don't buy that something like a third of the players in the game are Vanilla because they "forgot" to PM Ace with their picks or they picked something already picked. THREE people picked Comp Vig, Opz being the lowest one down - he claimed he didn't read the thread before picking which is just dumb to me, and is one of the things that made me suspicious.
Well, let's first rewind - the first thing that made me notice him was the fact that picked [4][14], which was coincidentally d3's number. But no one else seemed to care and we were steering away from the draft analysis, so I didn't bring it up again and distract the thread.
Back to his role. Foolishness and Korynne (I'm assuming Foolishness is the CV and Korynne also picked it) I sort of understand picking CV because Foolishness... might have wanted CV (? Don't really know why he went for it) and Korynne picked it as per what the town was discussing iirc. But Opz, I don't really understand at all. There's no reason why you would do that, the same as if there's no reason why anyone would have picked copycat, except for mafia.
What's more, as I said when I called him out, is that he claimed going for Comp Vig after Korynne had long been talking about it, which makes it really easy for him to lie, similar to the way some of the numbers people claimed could be lies. He also said this early on:
+ Show Spoiler [Opz's post] +On May 03 2010 14:42 ~OpZ~ wrote:
It also gives the perfect opportunity for meds to just protect a smaller list of people. Inventor could claim, give someone from the top a veteran kit/bulletproof kit/nightlight to keep away the evil mafia away. Medicas can protect the other ones. We don't know who claimed Role Cop/ Alignment cop/meds...
We don't need the role I tried to pick, so me claiming shouldn't matter. Compulsive vig isn't really an epic role unless you are insanely lucky, or the town is insanely coordinated and good. So we should be good.
Alignment should check near top/Role cop should check near top. perhaps RC number 2, and alignment #1/3
Inventor could likely safely claim and coordinate atleast two protections. Seriously, hand out a vetkit/nightlight, and have a med protect him....If mafia hit a vet/bulletproof/protected target, they lose their nightkill...
Inventor shouldn't hide, and meds should protect him if mafia are likely to hit the top of the list.
Why claim later then? He says he's not going to claim, and later claims CompVigDenied-Vanilla. And, like I said, there was no need for him to roleclaim - there was no possible way it could help the town. We already knew that the CompVig was above Korynne. Unless she was lying, but his word was as good as hers. So claiming only helps the mafia really (unless you are lying to trick the mafia), because town can't really confirm that whether or not you're vanilla, but you're giving the mafia less targets to hit first. So a lot of unprovable "I'm Vanilla townie" things = I read possible scum.
+ Show Spoiler [His reply to me] +On May 05 2010 08:23 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 06:54 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 05 2010 06:30 Radfield wrote:Korynne is a girl folks, or at the very least, has roleclaimed girl  lol. Korynne, that doesn't tell us anything, why'd you roleclaim? On May 05 2010 06:46 Radfield wrote:
In my eyes, it would be very strange for picks 1-5 to take copy cat. They can already take a good role, the only reason to take copy cat would be to deny Qatol a role.
7 and 8 are dead.
Qatol has cleared up his position in his recent novel, I'm inclined to believe him.
For now this leaves Sidesprang(9) and Opz(6). Opz at 6 is on that bubble of not making much sense to pick CC, but he might have. He also claims he went for CompVig, but of course his claim doesn't mean much for now.
Sidesprang, you happen to be at the perfect spot for taking CopyCat.
On another note. I hadn't realized we can vote on the CV hits at night. But of course this makes perfect sense and is what we should be doing.
Opz is also suspicious to me though. He claims he went for CompVig AFTER Korynne already stated that she went for it and failed - not only is that a useless roleclaim, but it's completely un-confirmable, which makes me think he might be lying. Well, you can confirm with a Role Check but that requires the Role Cop to claim, which obviously is not a good idea. His pointing out that going CC is retarded makes that just a little bit more suspicious, trying to cover his tracks and whatnot. He's also been (in general) against most of what the town has been saying, and without much justification, which is scummy to me. Definitely agree with the CV at night deal. I have a question though (read Qatol's post), who are we lynching? He/Rad I think suggested Day Vig'ing sidesprang and then lynching someone else? And what do we do in the case that no one picked Day Vig? Back to reading that essay -_- And when I die, I hope they read your name as the perpetrator who hath slain me. Just because I refuse to led around like a sheep? You go be sheep. I've also defended killing Qatol, which quite a few people jumped on that to say he should die, just based on role claims alone. Eh? Please appear less scummy to the green towny plz Darth. Thank you. Oh, and seriously, go look me up. I've been mafia once? I was silent the entire game. And every game I'm townie, I always say F the towns sheepness.
I didn't bother replying with this because, we were moving on to move important things first of all, and his response didn't say anything except "this is how I play, Darth be less scummy plz." He sorta dodged the things I pointed out against him, but, once again, I didn't point this out because by the time I rechecked the thread, it would have been a waste of all of our times to reply.
He's still suspicious to me, but you apparently have other concerns, so...
Next. My thoughts about Scamp were this: as someone pointed out (Radfield maybe?), Scamp was a bit sporadic in his finger pointing. My argument was that a normal mafia wouldn't do this, imo. Mafia want to throw attention onto other people/things, not attract attention by calling out several people without justification. That's why I said that Scamp might be more town to me. It was just a personal hunch though. If you guys feel strongly about Scamp, go with it.
Those alive:
2. Foolishness - [1] [1]
3. Korynne - [1] [5]
4. Falcynn [1] [7]
5. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1]
6. ~OpZ~ - [4] [14]
10. Qatol - [6] [1]
11. JeeJee - [6] [1]
12. DarthThienAn - [8] [1]
15. Radfield - [10] [1]
16. Scamp - [10] [11]
17. Zona - [12] [1]
18. citi.zen - [12] [3]
I think Rad is innocent. I think Qatol is most likely town as well. Zona/citi.zen I haven't really looked at. Scamp I kinda thought was innocent because of his finger pointing. I'm not sure about the [1]'s, but, looking at who we have left, one of the mafia might be among them. If I was mafia, I personally wouldn't have picked [1] except to deny L first pick, but they very well could've. So what I said earlier was just a possibility - the same way that Qatol's groups, though it's very likely that they work out, are not for certain.
I actually have to go now, so I'll post this now and finish up later >_>. Class ~
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btw those that are complaining about the lack of an all-button .. yeah i can see how it would be annoying. look into the autopager addon for firefox =) you can set it up for teamliquid as such:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 08 2009 13:57 onmach wrote:I had to tweak a few things to get it to work just right. For url pattern, enable regexp and use this: http://www.teamliquid.net/(forum|blogs)/view(message|blog)\.php.* For link xpath: (//a[text() = 'Next' and contains(@title, 'Next Page') and contains(@href, 'view')])[2] For content xpath: //td[@valign="top"]//table[@width=600] Sure makes following the fitness thread easier.
then you can just start at the first page, scroll down until the last page and you have your very own all button ^-^
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On May 07 2010 03:46 Scamp wrote:
The only problem with Korynne being mafia is that Foolishness would have to be mafia too. Remember that compvig was never actually confirmed, though if Radfield is telling the truth then there is one in the game (or we have a very sly mafia Joat).
Now that BM is confirmed inventor, for Korynne to lie about not getting compvig that means that Foolishness did not pick it. If Foolishness did not pick compvig then he would have no reason to lie to us at this point except if he's mafia.
What? Why can't we have a mafia Korynne and an innocent Foolishness? Foolishness could have just been innocent and gone against his assignment. He does do somewhat paranoid things from time to time. Like in the speed game, he told me he was in contact with a nonexistent vigilante because he was suspicious of me. Late game, when we needed that vigi to take a shot, it didn't happen and we lost.
On May 07 2010 04:24 DarthThienAn wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Qatol's post] +On May 07 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 01:01 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 06 2010 22:35 citi.zen wrote:On May 06 2010 19:09 Radfield wrote:
I have been shot at and saved by the medic. Good work medic.
Likely scenario:Foolishness kills Jspazz, Mafia shoot at me, SK kills Bill Murray.
If you think about it, BM was a bigger threat to the SK then anyone else in the game. Considering that the only way the SK can get found is either the tracker or BM's inventions.
Interesting claim that you got hit and were protected. There is only one medic in the game (at most). They could be red I suppose, but if they aren't, this would be a very hard claim to fake since someone would know you are lying. So this moves the needle a bit more towards your innocence in my mind. And it certainly means you are NOT the SK - which is nice to know. As far as BM - yes, I think he was a threat to the SK, in particular if he made some invention along the lines of what we suggested. It would provide a 3rd person with a way to find the SK and also kill them (assuming Ace allowed it to work like that). Speaking of finding people - would a townie ever take the godfather role? That and the role-blocker are much stronger in mafia hands. On May 06 2010 15:50 Bill Murray wrote:
good game guys. i was going to not invent anything as if i was a mafia i'd obviously invent something and give it to the mafia. by way of not inventing anything, i was proving to you all i was innocent.
i hope you all win. Wow, the likelihood of us lynching you for this move was decently high... oh well Yup, Bill changed his style, but isn't a better player unfortunately. In particular, when he is town he continues to be a big time liability. If he made no invention, I was going to vote for him 100%, which would be a wasted day. Given he was going to not make anything, it's actually a good thing the reds chose to kill him instead of someone else. Well... it doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't the SK. All it means that the medic actually DID protect him, or else he's taking a risk in assuming that there are no medics left in the game so that he won't get called out. However, to me, he's 99% pro-town. Hobbes and JeeJee seem to know something that no one else knows - either both of them are town, or both of them are mafia? Well... that's not necessarily true, but both of them think the other is of the same alignment at least. 1 could be mafia tricking the other into believe he is innocent using the role that they picked. As for my "fading out", I've been reading pretty relatively regularly... well not "regularly" but frequently I think. I post when I have something to contribute, or have an idea. Plus, stuff happens. We all have lives =p. On May 06 2010 19:25 Radfield wrote:
OK, lets look at some potential suspects. Foolishness certainly gets a pass for now, no reason to worry about him as long as he keeps shooting properly. But, I think it likely the mafia would have had someone put down 1 as there number, so....
Korynne: A lot of theorycrafting early on, but posting less and less as time goes on, barely contributing at all as far as our lynch suspect or compvig hit. She has continually mentioned that killing her off for info is a good idea. She voted 6th on the Sidesprang lynch with very little analysis. We would gain a bit of info from her death(if she's red then foolishness and citizen are almost certainly green) but not much
Korynne, I'm pointing the FoS at you. I don't have a great case, but I'd like to hear you on the record with who you find scummy and why, and who you think we should lynch/compvig today.
Also, I think it very unlikely that Qatol is mafia. Serial Killer maybe, but that goes for anyone at his point, no matter how pro-town they've been. Qatol basically got sidesprang killed by revealing that he went for copycat and missed. I can't think of any good reason for sidesprang's or qatol's actions if they were mafia buddies. I'm not sure the mafia would've put someone down as 1. I mean, we basically had two or three people claiming they were going 1, 1 early right? I know L said that. It seems silly for them to waste their time doesn't it? The only reason I see them doing it, is they are assuming that only one person would pick 1,1, so they want to deny that person getting first pick. Okay without Hobbes/JeeJee as mafia and without anyone who picked 1 as mafia, and I'll take out yourself and radfield you are basically saying the mafia are 3 of these 4: Opz, scamp, zona/citizen, and myself. Is that an accurate assessment of the situation to you? On May 07 2010 01:23 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 00:12 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
JeeJee, I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about. It would be nice if I could PM you to be sure, but I think we're on the same page here. In that case, I'm pretty sure you're also town-aligned Well, as far as I'm concerned this takes both Hobbes and JeeJee off the short list. They might both be mafia together, but in that case one will lead us to the other. Qatol, I was re-reading those posts I put up this morning, and I was a little bit confused as to why I put Citizen on that non-mafia list as well. The reason is this though, pretty much everyone on my suspicious list has called out citizen as potential mafia. Citizen style this game also just seems so obviously scummy, (right down to the pointless arguing with you, when you are very obviously in my eyes non-mafia) that I'm inclined to think him a townie. If pressed I would take him off the non-mafia list, but I don't think him all that likely to be scummy. As far as Falcynn, my sole reasoning is that he immediately agreed with my origional post about sidesprang, and the way he worded everything strikes me as town. No one else had agreed with me about Sidesprang yet, and yet he was still the first one aboard. I think a mafia would have been slightly less ok with it. The post I'm referring to: Show nested quote +On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: Show nested quote On May 04 2010 21:08 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler +2b Falcynn wishy washily claimed VANILLA without actually doing it Alright, I guess I should clearly state, I'm a vanilla townie. I decided not to make mention of it since . Was preparing for/doing this on Friday/Saturday http://www.filmracing.com/Cities/sanfrancisco.htm and missed the role claims because of it. I'll make a blog of it Thursday night/Friday since we're not allowed to upload our video until after the screening (yeah, this is really more to just get attention for my future blog post then to actually explain myself ) Anyways, as for lynching sidesprang, you're logic seems pretty sound, I guess at this point with all the information that's been gathered, it'd be nice to make sure whether or not everyone at the top of the list has been telling the truth about their roles. If we can get a day vig hit then that might help, although I'm not sure if we'd be able to figure out another lynch target and pile the votes on them in time. It'd suck to essentially waste a day vig hit by not getting the lynch to add to it =/ On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: oh right ##vote sidesprang ## Korynne: I completely understand what you're saying about possibly being burnt out etc. However, I think you're a very clever player. You played your first game as a very active townie, you played your second game as a very active mafia, and being very convincing at that. I'm inclined to think that if you got mafia again in this game, you might play it exactly the way you are. Fake being tired of Mafia as an excuse to post less. Unfortunately for all of us, there's little you can do at this point to remove suspicion from yourself. Anyways, I'm genuinely hoping you're mafia, and that you're burnt out routine is an act, because you seem like a good player to have around. Show nested quote +Who do you think is the strongest candidate for mafia on that list? Cases have been made against JeeJee and Scamp so far. Out of the other players, both Darth and Korynne started out strong, but have really faded due to recent inactivity (which is actually a pretty strong scum tell usually). I don't believe Hobbes was super active at any point in the game? What do you think about OpZ? Korynne is a good target, because I think despite her alignment, she told the truth about being Vanilla. So worst case scenario we kill a vanilla townie who isn't that upset about being killed anyways, but gives us a lead to Foolishness maybe. Best case we get a vanilla mafia. JeeJee and Hobbes should get a pass for today, but if a bunch of other targets turn up innocent, we might have to hit them both. At some point the information they are sharing needs to be made public. If we don't hit a mafia with our lynch or comphit hit today, and the SK hits another townie, we'll need as much info as we can get. If we had to lynch one of them, I'd go with JeeJee I stand by what I said earlier about Scamp, but if we decide to lynch him and he is the medic, then he needs to roleclaim. If no one contradicts him, then we call off the lynch. Keep in mind, the medic is basically a confirmed townie, and pretty much a confirmed non-SK. I can't see why the SK would take medic as a role, though perhaps to deny it from the town, perhaps because it gives him/her a convenient cover. ~opz~: I think Opz threw me off his trail by his vehement defense when I called him out. He just seemed outraged that I was wasting time by putting him on any suspect lists. What made me suspect him was how he tried to sidetrack my Sidesprang argument, but looking at it now makes me think it was just a knee-jerk reaction of seeing his name on a suspect list. I also buy his story of trying for CompVig and failing. Likely Vanilla either way. Personally his posting makes me think he's town. I put him as a second string lynch target for now. DarthTheinAn seems suspect. He made a case against ~opz~ early on. Votes for Jspazz over JeeJee for the CV hit. Try's to give Scamp a pass for being TOO mafia. None of these things necessarily make him a mafia. But his posting in general smacks of mafia to me, I recommend everyone look through his posting. Points out lots of obvious stuff, steers the convo away from certain people, lots of theorycrafting early on, not much talk about voting later on. Darth seems mafia, and seems like he might lead us to other mafia. I vote we lynch DarthTheinAn, If he flops red, then I propose we Compvig Scamp, and ask the SK to hit JeeJee ##Vote DarthTheinAn##I haven't really talked about Zona, but I really don't have much to say about him. He seems fairly legit and is likely working hard on the zbot.... I didn't proofread as I've run out of time and steam. If there's anything I said that doesn't make sense please point it out. Alright. Let me explain myself, hopefully in full. I personally don't buy that something like a third of the players in the game are Vanilla because they "forgot" to PM Ace with their picks or they picked something already picked. THREE people picked Comp Vig, Opz being the lowest one down - he claimed he didn't read the thread before picking which is just dumb to me, and is one of the things that made me suspicious. Well, let's first rewind - the first thing that made me notice him was the fact that picked [4][14], which was coincidentally d3's number. But no one else seemed to care and we were steering away from the draft analysis, so I didn't bring it up again and distract the thread.
That's because nobody really had anything to gain by claiming that little quirk. opz had to have picked [4][?]. The second number really isn't that important.
Back to his role. Foolishness and Korynne (I'm assuming Foolishness is the CV and Korynne also picked it) I sort of understand picking CV because Foolishness... might have wanted CV (? Don't really know why he went for it) and Korynne picked it as per what the town was discussing iirc. But Opz, I don't really understand at all. There's no reason why you would do that, the same as if there's no reason why anyone would have picked copycat, except for mafia. What's more, as I said when I called him out, is that he claimed going for Comp Vig after Korynne had long been talking about it, which makes it really easy for him to lie, similar to the way some of the numbers people claimed could be lies. He also said this early on: + Show Spoiler [Opz's post] +On May 03 2010 14:42 ~OpZ~ wrote:
It also gives the perfect opportunity for meds to just protect a smaller list of people. Inventor could claim, give someone from the top a veteran kit/bulletproof kit/nightlight to keep away the evil mafia away. Medicas can protect the other ones. We don't know who claimed Role Cop/ Alignment cop/meds...
We don't need the role I tried to pick, so me claiming shouldn't matter. Compulsive vig isn't really an epic role unless you are insanely lucky, or the town is insanely coordinated and good. So we should be good.
Alignment should check near top/Role cop should check near top. perhaps RC number 2, and alignment #1/3
Inventor could likely safely claim and coordinate atleast two protections. Seriously, hand out a vetkit/nightlight, and have a med protect him....If mafia hit a vet/bulletproof/protected target, they lose their nightkill...
Inventor shouldn't hide, and meds should protect him if mafia are likely to hit the top of the list.
Why claim later then? He says he's not going to claim, and later claims CompVigDenied-Vanilla. And, like I said, there was no need for him to roleclaim - there was no possible way it could help the town. We already knew that the CompVig was above Korynne. Unless she was lying, but his word was as good as hers. So claiming only helps the mafia really (unless you are lying to trick the mafia), because town can't really confirm that whether or not you're vanilla, but you're giving the mafia less targets to hit first. So a lot of unprovable "I'm Vanilla townie" things = I read possible scum. + Show Spoiler [His reply to me] +On May 05 2010 08:23 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 06:54 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 05 2010 06:30 Radfield wrote:Korynne is a girl folks, or at the very least, has roleclaimed girl lol. Korynne, that doesn't tell us anything, why'd you roleclaim? On May 05 2010 06:46 Radfield wrote:
In my eyes, it would be very strange for picks 1-5 to take copy cat. They can already take a good role, the only reason to take copy cat would be to deny Qatol a role.
7 and 8 are dead.
Qatol has cleared up his position in his recent novel, I'm inclined to believe him.
For now this leaves Sidesprang(9) and Opz(6). Opz at 6 is on that bubble of not making much sense to pick CC, but he might have. He also claims he went for CompVig, but of course his claim doesn't mean much for now.
Sidesprang, you happen to be at the perfect spot for taking CopyCat.
On another note. I hadn't realized we can vote on the CV hits at night. But of course this makes perfect sense and is what we should be doing.
Opz is also suspicious to me though. He claims he went for CompVig AFTER Korynne already stated that she went for it and failed - not only is that a useless roleclaim, but it's completely un-confirmable, which makes me think he might be lying. Well, you can confirm with a Role Check but that requires the Role Cop to claim, which obviously is not a good idea. His pointing out that going CC is retarded makes that just a little bit more suspicious, trying to cover his tracks and whatnot. He's also been (in general) against most of what the town has been saying, and without much justification, which is scummy to me. Definitely agree with the CV at night deal. I have a question though (read Qatol's post), who are we lynching? He/Rad I think suggested Day Vig'ing sidesprang and then lynching someone else? And what do we do in the case that no one picked Day Vig? Back to reading that essay -_- And when I die, I hope they read your name as the perpetrator who hath slain me. Just because I refuse to led around like a sheep? You go be sheep. I've also defended killing Qatol, which quite a few people jumped on that to say he should die, just based on role claims alone. Eh? Please appear less scummy to the green towny plz Darth. Thank you. Oh, and seriously, go look me up. I've been mafia once? I was silent the entire game. And every game I'm townie, I always say F the towns sheepness. I didn't bother replying with this because, we were moving on to move important things first of all, and his response didn't say anything except "this is how I play, Darth be less scummy plz." He sorta dodged the things I pointed out against him, but, once again, I didn't point this out because by the time I rechecked the thread, it would have been a waste of all of our times to reply. He's still suspicious to me, but you apparently have other concerns, so...
No this is a decent argument other than the numbers thing. You really should have brought this up sooner.
Next. My thoughts about Scamp were this: as someone pointed out (Radfield maybe?), Scamp was a bit sporadic in his finger pointing. My argument was that a normal mafia wouldn't do this, imo. Mafia want to throw attention onto other people/things, not attract attention by calling out several people without justification. That's why I said that Scamp might be more town to me. It was just a personal hunch though. If you guys feel strongly about Scamp, go with it.
Those alive:
2. Foolishness - [1] [1]
3. Korynne - [1] [5]
4. Falcynn [1] [7]
5. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1]
6. ~OpZ~ - [4] [14]
10. Qatol - [6] [1]
11. JeeJee - [6] [1]
12. DarthThienAn - [8] [1]
15. Radfield - [10] [1]
16. Scamp - [10] [11]
17. Zona - [12] [1]
18. citi.zen - [12] [3]
I think Rad is innocent. I think Qatol is most likely town as well. Zona/citi.zen I haven't really looked at. Scamp I kinda thought was innocent because of his finger pointing. I'm not sure about the [1]'s, but, looking at who we have left, one of the mafia might be among them. If I was mafia, I personally wouldn't have picked [1] except to deny L first pick, but they very well could've. So what I said earlier was just a possibility - the same way that Qatol's groups, though it's very likely that they work out, are not for certain.
I actually have to go now, so I'll post this now and finish up later >_>. Class ~
Out of your statements, you said earlier you are inclined to believe that hobbes and jeejee are the same alignment. Now you just eliminated myself and radfield. I'm just wondering who that leaves.
Foolishness/Korynne/Falcynn, opz, scamp, and zona/citi.zen unless hobbes and jeejee are both mafia. And one of the situations which you say is unlikely to be true pretty much must be true.
I've been thinking about the medic thing a bit more. You are obviously a decently smart player (protecting Radfield over Bill Murray), so I think we should leave claiming up to you. However, you need to decide whether you want to claim right now. This is because if we put a mafia up on the chopping block, they can just claim medic to out you anyways. Serial Killer may try to do it to save their skin as well. If you do it, the mafia may just crossclaim in order to make us waste a lynch on you anyways (less likely than the other two, but possible, considering the state the game is in). The only way a player does not claim medic when they are on the chopping block is if they are an innocent non-medic. So I propose this idea: we believe a roleclaim of medic for the next 10 hours. This allows the medic to separate himself or herself from those we are actively talking about on the chopping block if necessary. If no roleclaim is forthcoming, we do not believe any future roleclaims of medic. Do not roleclaim unless you deem it absolutely necessary. We don't want to lose you tonight if we can help it. Anyone disagree with this idea?
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 07 2010 04:55 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 03:46 Scamp wrote:
The only problem with Korynne being mafia is that Foolishness would have to be mafia too. Remember that compvig was never actually confirmed, though if Radfield is telling the truth then there is one in the game (or we have a very sly mafia Joat).
Now that BM is confirmed inventor, for Korynne to lie about not getting compvig that means that Foolishness did not pick it. If Foolishness did not pick compvig then he would have no reason to lie to us at this point except if he's mafia. What? Why can't we have a mafia Korynne and an innocent Foolishness? Foolishness could have just been innocent and gone against his assignment. He does do somewhat paranoid things from time to time. Like in the speed game, he told me he was in contact with a nonexistent vigilante because he was suspicious of me. Late game, when we needed that vigi to take a shot, it didn't happen and we lost. Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 04:24 DarthThienAn wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Qatol's post] +On May 07 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 01:01 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 06 2010 22:35 citi.zen wrote:On May 06 2010 19:09 Radfield wrote:
I have been shot at and saved by the medic. Good work medic.
Likely scenario:Foolishness kills Jspazz, Mafia shoot at me, SK kills Bill Murray.
If you think about it, BM was a bigger threat to the SK then anyone else in the game. Considering that the only way the SK can get found is either the tracker or BM's inventions.
Interesting claim that you got hit and were protected. There is only one medic in the game (at most). They could be red I suppose, but if they aren't, this would be a very hard claim to fake since someone would know you are lying. So this moves the needle a bit more towards your innocence in my mind. And it certainly means you are NOT the SK - which is nice to know. As far as BM - yes, I think he was a threat to the SK, in particular if he made some invention along the lines of what we suggested. It would provide a 3rd person with a way to find the SK and also kill them (assuming Ace allowed it to work like that). Speaking of finding people - would a townie ever take the godfather role? That and the role-blocker are much stronger in mafia hands. On May 06 2010 15:50 Bill Murray wrote:
good game guys. i was going to not invent anything as if i was a mafia i'd obviously invent something and give it to the mafia. by way of not inventing anything, i was proving to you all i was innocent.
i hope you all win. Wow, the likelihood of us lynching you for this move was decently high... oh well Yup, Bill changed his style, but isn't a better player unfortunately. In particular, when he is town he continues to be a big time liability. If he made no invention, I was going to vote for him 100%, which would be a wasted day. Given he was going to not make anything, it's actually a good thing the reds chose to kill him instead of someone else. Well... it doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't the SK. All it means that the medic actually DID protect him, or else he's taking a risk in assuming that there are no medics left in the game so that he won't get called out. However, to me, he's 99% pro-town. Hobbes and JeeJee seem to know something that no one else knows - either both of them are town, or both of them are mafia? Well... that's not necessarily true, but both of them think the other is of the same alignment at least. 1 could be mafia tricking the other into believe he is innocent using the role that they picked. As for my "fading out", I've been reading pretty relatively regularly... well not "regularly" but frequently I think. I post when I have something to contribute, or have an idea. Plus, stuff happens. We all have lives =p. On May 06 2010 19:25 Radfield wrote:
OK, lets look at some potential suspects. Foolishness certainly gets a pass for now, no reason to worry about him as long as he keeps shooting properly. But, I think it likely the mafia would have had someone put down 1 as there number, so....
Korynne: A lot of theorycrafting early on, but posting less and less as time goes on, barely contributing at all as far as our lynch suspect or compvig hit. She has continually mentioned that killing her off for info is a good idea. She voted 6th on the Sidesprang lynch with very little analysis. We would gain a bit of info from her death(if she's red then foolishness and citizen are almost certainly green) but not much
Korynne, I'm pointing the FoS at you. I don't have a great case, but I'd like to hear you on the record with who you find scummy and why, and who you think we should lynch/compvig today.
Also, I think it very unlikely that Qatol is mafia. Serial Killer maybe, but that goes for anyone at his point, no matter how pro-town they've been. Qatol basically got sidesprang killed by revealing that he went for copycat and missed. I can't think of any good reason for sidesprang's or qatol's actions if they were mafia buddies. I'm not sure the mafia would've put someone down as 1. I mean, we basically had two or three people claiming they were going 1, 1 early right? I know L said that. It seems silly for them to waste their time doesn't it? The only reason I see them doing it, is they are assuming that only one person would pick 1,1, so they want to deny that person getting first pick. Okay without Hobbes/JeeJee as mafia and without anyone who picked 1 as mafia, and I'll take out yourself and radfield you are basically saying the mafia are 3 of these 4: Opz, scamp, zona/citizen, and myself. Is that an accurate assessment of the situation to you? On May 07 2010 01:23 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 00:12 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
JeeJee, I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about. It would be nice if I could PM you to be sure, but I think we're on the same page here. In that case, I'm pretty sure you're also town-aligned Well, as far as I'm concerned this takes both Hobbes and JeeJee off the short list. They might both be mafia together, but in that case one will lead us to the other. Qatol, I was re-reading those posts I put up this morning, and I was a little bit confused as to why I put Citizen on that non-mafia list as well. The reason is this though, pretty much everyone on my suspicious list has called out citizen as potential mafia. Citizen style this game also just seems so obviously scummy, (right down to the pointless arguing with you, when you are very obviously in my eyes non-mafia) that I'm inclined to think him a townie. If pressed I would take him off the non-mafia list, but I don't think him all that likely to be scummy. As far as Falcynn, my sole reasoning is that he immediately agreed with my origional post about sidesprang, and the way he worded everything strikes me as town. No one else had agreed with me about Sidesprang yet, and yet he was still the first one aboard. I think a mafia would have been slightly less ok with it. The post I'm referring to: Show nested quote +On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: Show nested quote On May 04 2010 21:08 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler +2b Falcynn wishy washily claimed VANILLA without actually doing it Alright, I guess I should clearly state, I'm a vanilla townie. I decided not to make mention of it since . Was preparing for/doing this on Friday/Saturday http://www.filmracing.com/Cities/sanfrancisco.htm and missed the role claims because of it. I'll make a blog of it Thursday night/Friday since we're not allowed to upload our video until after the screening (yeah, this is really more to just get attention for my future blog post then to actually explain myself ) Anyways, as for lynching sidesprang, you're logic seems pretty sound, I guess at this point with all the information that's been gathered, it'd be nice to make sure whether or not everyone at the top of the list has been telling the truth about their roles. If we can get a day vig hit then that might help, although I'm not sure if we'd be able to figure out another lynch target and pile the votes on them in time. It'd suck to essentially waste a day vig hit by not getting the lynch to add to it =/ On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: oh right ##vote sidesprang ## Korynne: I completely understand what you're saying about possibly being burnt out etc. However, I think you're a very clever player. You played your first game as a very active townie, you played your second game as a very active mafia, and being very convincing at that. I'm inclined to think that if you got mafia again in this game, you might play it exactly the way you are. Fake being tired of Mafia as an excuse to post less. Unfortunately for all of us, there's little you can do at this point to remove suspicion from yourself. Anyways, I'm genuinely hoping you're mafia, and that you're burnt out routine is an act, because you seem like a good player to have around. Show nested quote +Who do you think is the strongest candidate for mafia on that list? Cases have been made against JeeJee and Scamp so far. Out of the other players, both Darth and Korynne started out strong, but have really faded due to recent inactivity (which is actually a pretty strong scum tell usually). I don't believe Hobbes was super active at any point in the game? What do you think about OpZ? Korynne is a good target, because I think despite her alignment, she told the truth about being Vanilla. So worst case scenario we kill a vanilla townie who isn't that upset about being killed anyways, but gives us a lead to Foolishness maybe. Best case we get a vanilla mafia. JeeJee and Hobbes should get a pass for today, but if a bunch of other targets turn up innocent, we might have to hit them both. At some point the information they are sharing needs to be made public. If we don't hit a mafia with our lynch or comphit hit today, and the SK hits another townie, we'll need as much info as we can get. If we had to lynch one of them, I'd go with JeeJee I stand by what I said earlier about Scamp, but if we decide to lynch him and he is the medic, then he needs to roleclaim. If no one contradicts him, then we call off the lynch. Keep in mind, the medic is basically a confirmed townie, and pretty much a confirmed non-SK. I can't see why the SK would take medic as a role, though perhaps to deny it from the town, perhaps because it gives him/her a convenient cover. ~opz~: I think Opz threw me off his trail by his vehement defense when I called him out. He just seemed outraged that I was wasting time by putting him on any suspect lists. What made me suspect him was how he tried to sidetrack my Sidesprang argument, but looking at it now makes me think it was just a knee-jerk reaction of seeing his name on a suspect list. I also buy his story of trying for CompVig and failing. Likely Vanilla either way. Personally his posting makes me think he's town. I put him as a second string lynch target for now. DarthTheinAn seems suspect. He made a case against ~opz~ early on. Votes for Jspazz over JeeJee for the CV hit. Try's to give Scamp a pass for being TOO mafia. None of these things necessarily make him a mafia. But his posting in general smacks of mafia to me, I recommend everyone look through his posting. Points out lots of obvious stuff, steers the convo away from certain people, lots of theorycrafting early on, not much talk about voting later on. Darth seems mafia, and seems like he might lead us to other mafia. I vote we lynch DarthTheinAn, If he flops red, then I propose we Compvig Scamp, and ask the SK to hit JeeJee ##Vote DarthTheinAn##I haven't really talked about Zona, but I really don't have much to say about him. He seems fairly legit and is likely working hard on the zbot.... I didn't proofread as I've run out of time and steam. If there's anything I said that doesn't make sense please point it out. Alright. Let me explain myself, hopefully in full. I personally don't buy that something like a third of the players in the game are Vanilla because they "forgot" to PM Ace with their picks or they picked something already picked. THREE people picked Comp Vig, Opz being the lowest one down - he claimed he didn't read the thread before picking which is just dumb to me, and is one of the things that made me suspicious. Well, let's first rewind - the first thing that made me notice him was the fact that picked [4][14], which was coincidentally d3's number. But no one else seemed to care and we were steering away from the draft analysis, so I didn't bring it up again and distract the thread. That's because nobody really had anything to gain by claiming that little quirk. opz had to have picked [4][?]. The second number really isn't that important. Show nested quote +Back to his role. Foolishness and Korynne (I'm assuming Foolishness is the CV and Korynne also picked it) I sort of understand picking CV because Foolishness... might have wanted CV (? Don't really know why he went for it) and Korynne picked it as per what the town was discussing iirc. But Opz, I don't really understand at all. There's no reason why you would do that, the same as if there's no reason why anyone would have picked copycat, except for mafia. What's more, as I said when I called him out, is that he claimed going for Comp Vig after Korynne had long been talking about it, which makes it really easy for him to lie, similar to the way some of the numbers people claimed could be lies. He also said this early on: + Show Spoiler [Opz's post] +On May 03 2010 14:42 ~OpZ~ wrote:
It also gives the perfect opportunity for meds to just protect a smaller list of people. Inventor could claim, give someone from the top a veteran kit/bulletproof kit/nightlight to keep away the evil mafia away. Medicas can protect the other ones. We don't know who claimed Role Cop/ Alignment cop/meds...
We don't need the role I tried to pick, so me claiming shouldn't matter. Compulsive vig isn't really an epic role unless you are insanely lucky, or the town is insanely coordinated and good. So we should be good.
Alignment should check near top/Role cop should check near top. perhaps RC number 2, and alignment #1/3
Inventor could likely safely claim and coordinate atleast two protections. Seriously, hand out a vetkit/nightlight, and have a med protect him....If mafia hit a vet/bulletproof/protected target, they lose their nightkill...
Inventor shouldn't hide, and meds should protect him if mafia are likely to hit the top of the list.
Why claim later then? He says he's not going to claim, and later claims CompVigDenied-Vanilla. And, like I said, there was no need for him to roleclaim - there was no possible way it could help the town. We already knew that the CompVig was above Korynne. Unless she was lying, but his word was as good as hers. So claiming only helps the mafia really (unless you are lying to trick the mafia), because town can't really confirm that whether or not you're vanilla, but you're giving the mafia less targets to hit first. So a lot of unprovable "I'm Vanilla townie" things = I read possible scum. + Show Spoiler [His reply to me] +On May 05 2010 08:23 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 06:54 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 05 2010 06:30 Radfield wrote:Korynne is a girl folks, or at the very least, has roleclaimed girl lol. Korynne, that doesn't tell us anything, why'd you roleclaim? On May 05 2010 06:46 Radfield wrote:
In my eyes, it would be very strange for picks 1-5 to take copy cat. They can already take a good role, the only reason to take copy cat would be to deny Qatol a role.
7 and 8 are dead.
Qatol has cleared up his position in his recent novel, I'm inclined to believe him.
For now this leaves Sidesprang(9) and Opz(6). Opz at 6 is on that bubble of not making much sense to pick CC, but he might have. He also claims he went for CompVig, but of course his claim doesn't mean much for now.
Sidesprang, you happen to be at the perfect spot for taking CopyCat.
On another note. I hadn't realized we can vote on the CV hits at night. But of course this makes perfect sense and is what we should be doing.
Opz is also suspicious to me though. He claims he went for CompVig AFTER Korynne already stated that she went for it and failed - not only is that a useless roleclaim, but it's completely un-confirmable, which makes me think he might be lying. Well, you can confirm with a Role Check but that requires the Role Cop to claim, which obviously is not a good idea. His pointing out that going CC is retarded makes that just a little bit more suspicious, trying to cover his tracks and whatnot. He's also been (in general) against most of what the town has been saying, and without much justification, which is scummy to me. Definitely agree with the CV at night deal. I have a question though (read Qatol's post), who are we lynching? He/Rad I think suggested Day Vig'ing sidesprang and then lynching someone else? And what do we do in the case that no one picked Day Vig? Back to reading that essay -_- And when I die, I hope they read your name as the perpetrator who hath slain me. Just because I refuse to led around like a sheep? You go be sheep. I've also defended killing Qatol, which quite a few people jumped on that to say he should die, just based on role claims alone. Eh? Please appear less scummy to the green towny plz Darth. Thank you. Oh, and seriously, go look me up. I've been mafia once? I was silent the entire game. And every game I'm townie, I always say F the towns sheepness. I didn't bother replying with this because, we were moving on to move important things first of all, and his response didn't say anything except "this is how I play, Darth be less scummy plz." He sorta dodged the things I pointed out against him, but, once again, I didn't point this out because by the time I rechecked the thread, it would have been a waste of all of our times to reply. He's still suspicious to me, but you apparently have other concerns, so... No this is a decent argument other than the numbers thing. You really should have brought this up sooner. Show nested quote +
Next. My thoughts about Scamp were this: as someone pointed out (Radfield maybe?), Scamp was a bit sporadic in his finger pointing. My argument was that a normal mafia wouldn't do this, imo. Mafia want to throw attention onto other people/things, not attract attention by calling out several people without justification. That's why I said that Scamp might be more town to me. It was just a personal hunch though. If you guys feel strongly about Scamp, go with it.
Those alive:
2. Foolishness - [1] [1]
3. Korynne - [1] [5]
4. Falcynn [1] [7]
5. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1]
6. ~OpZ~ - [4] [14]
10. Qatol - [6] [1]
11. JeeJee - [6] [1]
12. DarthThienAn - [8] [1]
15. Radfield - [10] [1]
16. Scamp - [10] [11]
17. Zona - [12] [1]
18. citi.zen - [12] [3]
I think Rad is innocent. I think Qatol is most likely town as well. Zona/citi.zen I haven't really looked at. Scamp I kinda thought was innocent because of his finger pointing. I'm not sure about the [1]'s, but, looking at who we have left, one of the mafia might be among them. If I was mafia, I personally wouldn't have picked [1] except to deny L first pick, but they very well could've. So what I said earlier was just a possibility - the same way that Qatol's groups, though it's very likely that they work out, are not for certain.
I actually have to go now, so I'll post this now and finish up later >_>. Class ~
Out of your statements, you said earlier you are inclined to believe that hobbes and jeejee are the same alignment. Now you just eliminated myself and radfield. I'm just wondering who that leaves. Foolishness/Korynne/Falcynn, opz, scamp, and zona/citi.zen unless hobbes and jeejee are both mafia. And one of the situations which you say is unlikely to be true pretty much must be true. I've been thinking about the medic thing a bit more. You are obviously a decently smart player (protecting Radfield over Bill Murray), so I think we should leave claiming up to you. However, you need to decide whether you want to claim right now. This is because if we put a mafia up on the chopping block, they can just claim medic to out you anyways. Serial Killer may try to do it to save their skin as well. If you do it, the mafia may just crossclaim in order to make us waste a lynch on you anyways (less likely than the other two, but possible, considering the state the game is in). The only way a player does not claim medic when they are on the chopping block is if they are an innocent non-medic. So I propose this idea: we believe a roleclaim of medic for the next 10 hours. This allows the medic to separate himself or herself from those we are actively talking about on the chopping block if necessary. If no roleclaim is forthcoming, we do not believe any future roleclaims of medic. Do not roleclaim unless you deem it absolutely necessary. We don't want to lose you tonight if we can help it. Anyone disagree with this idea?
I'm confused. Won't day be well over in 10 hours? If the medic is to claim they should do it before day ends so we have ample time to move votes around. After missing a lynch on the first day I don't think we can afford to do the same thing.
I'm also against the idea of the medic claiming in general because they will just die next night. The other medic is already dead (copycat is dead too, although he was mafia), BM is gone so he can't invent anything for protection. Doesn't seem like there's any way for the medic to survive the night if the mafia figure out who it is.
Just because Radfield took a hit doesn't mean there's a medic. He could be SK. In fact, I think it's more likely he's SK than there was a medic protection. If he really did take a hit, it makes more sense for him to just say "I took a hit last night" as opposed to "I took a hit, thanks medic". First, he's revealed to the mafia that there is a medic (assuming he's innocent), and second, given the diverse roles available, if he just says "I took a hit" then that still leaves ambiguity in what his role could be. It's possible he was saved by a medic, he could be a veteran, he could be bulletproof, BM could have invented something (although Ace didn't say anything). Also, what's to say there's a medic protecting him and not a Jack?
After writing that last paragraph, this is actually quite fishy. Nobody else claimed to take a hit. Maybe he's the SK and chose NOT to hit someone to get credibility.
|
On May 07 2010 05:13 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 04:55 Qatol wrote:On May 07 2010 03:46 Scamp wrote:
The only problem with Korynne being mafia is that Foolishness would have to be mafia too. Remember that compvig was never actually confirmed, though if Radfield is telling the truth then there is one in the game (or we have a very sly mafia Joat).
Now that BM is confirmed inventor, for Korynne to lie about not getting compvig that means that Foolishness did not pick it. If Foolishness did not pick compvig then he would have no reason to lie to us at this point except if he's mafia. What? Why can't we have a mafia Korynne and an innocent Foolishness? Foolishness could have just been innocent and gone against his assignment. He does do somewhat paranoid things from time to time. Like in the speed game, he told me he was in contact with a nonexistent vigilante because he was suspicious of me. Late game, when we needed that vigi to take a shot, it didn't happen and we lost. On May 07 2010 04:24 DarthThienAn wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Qatol's post] +On May 07 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 01:01 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 06 2010 22:35 citi.zen wrote:On May 06 2010 19:09 Radfield wrote:
I have been shot at and saved by the medic. Good work medic.
Likely scenario:Foolishness kills Jspazz, Mafia shoot at me, SK kills Bill Murray.
If you think about it, BM was a bigger threat to the SK then anyone else in the game. Considering that the only way the SK can get found is either the tracker or BM's inventions.
Interesting claim that you got hit and were protected. There is only one medic in the game (at most). They could be red I suppose, but if they aren't, this would be a very hard claim to fake since someone would know you are lying. So this moves the needle a bit more towards your innocence in my mind. And it certainly means you are NOT the SK - which is nice to know. As far as BM - yes, I think he was a threat to the SK, in particular if he made some invention along the lines of what we suggested. It would provide a 3rd person with a way to find the SK and also kill them (assuming Ace allowed it to work like that). Speaking of finding people - would a townie ever take the godfather role? That and the role-blocker are much stronger in mafia hands. On May 06 2010 15:50 Bill Murray wrote:
good game guys. i was going to not invent anything as if i was a mafia i'd obviously invent something and give it to the mafia. by way of not inventing anything, i was proving to you all i was innocent.
i hope you all win. Wow, the likelihood of us lynching you for this move was decently high... oh well Yup, Bill changed his style, but isn't a better player unfortunately. In particular, when he is town he continues to be a big time liability. If he made no invention, I was going to vote for him 100%, which would be a wasted day. Given he was going to not make anything, it's actually a good thing the reds chose to kill him instead of someone else. Well... it doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't the SK. All it means that the medic actually DID protect him, or else he's taking a risk in assuming that there are no medics left in the game so that he won't get called out. However, to me, he's 99% pro-town. Hobbes and JeeJee seem to know something that no one else knows - either both of them are town, or both of them are mafia? Well... that's not necessarily true, but both of them think the other is of the same alignment at least. 1 could be mafia tricking the other into believe he is innocent using the role that they picked. As for my "fading out", I've been reading pretty relatively regularly... well not "regularly" but frequently I think. I post when I have something to contribute, or have an idea. Plus, stuff happens. We all have lives =p. On May 06 2010 19:25 Radfield wrote:
OK, lets look at some potential suspects. Foolishness certainly gets a pass for now, no reason to worry about him as long as he keeps shooting properly. But, I think it likely the mafia would have had someone put down 1 as there number, so....
Korynne: A lot of theorycrafting early on, but posting less and less as time goes on, barely contributing at all as far as our lynch suspect or compvig hit. She has continually mentioned that killing her off for info is a good idea. She voted 6th on the Sidesprang lynch with very little analysis. We would gain a bit of info from her death(if she's red then foolishness and citizen are almost certainly green) but not much
Korynne, I'm pointing the FoS at you. I don't have a great case, but I'd like to hear you on the record with who you find scummy and why, and who you think we should lynch/compvig today.
Also, I think it very unlikely that Qatol is mafia. Serial Killer maybe, but that goes for anyone at his point, no matter how pro-town they've been. Qatol basically got sidesprang killed by revealing that he went for copycat and missed. I can't think of any good reason for sidesprang's or qatol's actions if they were mafia buddies. I'm not sure the mafia would've put someone down as 1. I mean, we basically had two or three people claiming they were going 1, 1 early right? I know L said that. It seems silly for them to waste their time doesn't it? The only reason I see them doing it, is they are assuming that only one person would pick 1,1, so they want to deny that person getting first pick. Okay without Hobbes/JeeJee as mafia and without anyone who picked 1 as mafia, and I'll take out yourself and radfield you are basically saying the mafia are 3 of these 4: Opz, scamp, zona/citizen, and myself. Is that an accurate assessment of the situation to you? On May 07 2010 01:23 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 00:12 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
JeeJee, I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about. It would be nice if I could PM you to be sure, but I think we're on the same page here. In that case, I'm pretty sure you're also town-aligned Well, as far as I'm concerned this takes both Hobbes and JeeJee off the short list. They might both be mafia together, but in that case one will lead us to the other. Qatol, I was re-reading those posts I put up this morning, and I was a little bit confused as to why I put Citizen on that non-mafia list as well. The reason is this though, pretty much everyone on my suspicious list has called out citizen as potential mafia. Citizen style this game also just seems so obviously scummy, (right down to the pointless arguing with you, when you are very obviously in my eyes non-mafia) that I'm inclined to think him a townie. If pressed I would take him off the non-mafia list, but I don't think him all that likely to be scummy. As far as Falcynn, my sole reasoning is that he immediately agreed with my origional post about sidesprang, and the way he worded everything strikes me as town. No one else had agreed with me about Sidesprang yet, and yet he was still the first one aboard. I think a mafia would have been slightly less ok with it. The post I'm referring to: Show nested quote +On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: Show nested quote On May 04 2010 21:08 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler +2b Falcynn wishy washily claimed VANILLA without actually doing it Alright, I guess I should clearly state, I'm a vanilla townie. I decided not to make mention of it since . Was preparing for/doing this on Friday/Saturday http://www.filmracing.com/Cities/sanfrancisco.htm and missed the role claims because of it. I'll make a blog of it Thursday night/Friday since we're not allowed to upload our video until after the screening (yeah, this is really more to just get attention for my future blog post then to actually explain myself ) Anyways, as for lynching sidesprang, you're logic seems pretty sound, I guess at this point with all the information that's been gathered, it'd be nice to make sure whether or not everyone at the top of the list has been telling the truth about their roles. If we can get a day vig hit then that might help, although I'm not sure if we'd be able to figure out another lynch target and pile the votes on them in time. It'd suck to essentially waste a day vig hit by not getting the lynch to add to it =/ On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: oh right ##vote sidesprang ## Korynne: I completely understand what you're saying about possibly being burnt out etc. However, I think you're a very clever player. You played your first game as a very active townie, you played your second game as a very active mafia, and being very convincing at that. I'm inclined to think that if you got mafia again in this game, you might play it exactly the way you are. Fake being tired of Mafia as an excuse to post less. Unfortunately for all of us, there's little you can do at this point to remove suspicion from yourself. Anyways, I'm genuinely hoping you're mafia, and that you're burnt out routine is an act, because you seem like a good player to have around. Show nested quote +Who do you think is the strongest candidate for mafia on that list? Cases have been made against JeeJee and Scamp so far. Out of the other players, both Darth and Korynne started out strong, but have really faded due to recent inactivity (which is actually a pretty strong scum tell usually). I don't believe Hobbes was super active at any point in the game? What do you think about OpZ? Korynne is a good target, because I think despite her alignment, she told the truth about being Vanilla. So worst case scenario we kill a vanilla townie who isn't that upset about being killed anyways, but gives us a lead to Foolishness maybe. Best case we get a vanilla mafia. JeeJee and Hobbes should get a pass for today, but if a bunch of other targets turn up innocent, we might have to hit them both. At some point the information they are sharing needs to be made public. If we don't hit a mafia with our lynch or comphit hit today, and the SK hits another townie, we'll need as much info as we can get. If we had to lynch one of them, I'd go with JeeJee I stand by what I said earlier about Scamp, but if we decide to lynch him and he is the medic, then he needs to roleclaim. If no one contradicts him, then we call off the lynch. Keep in mind, the medic is basically a confirmed townie, and pretty much a confirmed non-SK. I can't see why the SK would take medic as a role, though perhaps to deny it from the town, perhaps because it gives him/her a convenient cover. ~opz~: I think Opz threw me off his trail by his vehement defense when I called him out. He just seemed outraged that I was wasting time by putting him on any suspect lists. What made me suspect him was how he tried to sidetrack my Sidesprang argument, but looking at it now makes me think it was just a knee-jerk reaction of seeing his name on a suspect list. I also buy his story of trying for CompVig and failing. Likely Vanilla either way. Personally his posting makes me think he's town. I put him as a second string lynch target for now. DarthTheinAn seems suspect. He made a case against ~opz~ early on. Votes for Jspazz over JeeJee for the CV hit. Try's to give Scamp a pass for being TOO mafia. None of these things necessarily make him a mafia. But his posting in general smacks of mafia to me, I recommend everyone look through his posting. Points out lots of obvious stuff, steers the convo away from certain people, lots of theorycrafting early on, not much talk about voting later on. Darth seems mafia, and seems like he might lead us to other mafia. I vote we lynch DarthTheinAn, If he flops red, then I propose we Compvig Scamp, and ask the SK to hit JeeJee ##Vote DarthTheinAn##I haven't really talked about Zona, but I really don't have much to say about him. He seems fairly legit and is likely working hard on the zbot.... I didn't proofread as I've run out of time and steam. If there's anything I said that doesn't make sense please point it out. Alright. Let me explain myself, hopefully in full. I personally don't buy that something like a third of the players in the game are Vanilla because they "forgot" to PM Ace with their picks or they picked something already picked. THREE people picked Comp Vig, Opz being the lowest one down - he claimed he didn't read the thread before picking which is just dumb to me, and is one of the things that made me suspicious. Well, let's first rewind - the first thing that made me notice him was the fact that picked [4][14], which was coincidentally d3's number. But no one else seemed to care and we were steering away from the draft analysis, so I didn't bring it up again and distract the thread. That's because nobody really had anything to gain by claiming that little quirk. opz had to have picked [4][?]. The second number really isn't that important. Back to his role. Foolishness and Korynne (I'm assuming Foolishness is the CV and Korynne also picked it) I sort of understand picking CV because Foolishness... might have wanted CV (? Don't really know why he went for it) and Korynne picked it as per what the town was discussing iirc. But Opz, I don't really understand at all. There's no reason why you would do that, the same as if there's no reason why anyone would have picked copycat, except for mafia. What's more, as I said when I called him out, is that he claimed going for Comp Vig after Korynne had long been talking about it, which makes it really easy for him to lie, similar to the way some of the numbers people claimed could be lies. He also said this early on: + Show Spoiler [Opz's post] +On May 03 2010 14:42 ~OpZ~ wrote:
It also gives the perfect opportunity for meds to just protect a smaller list of people. Inventor could claim, give someone from the top a veteran kit/bulletproof kit/nightlight to keep away the evil mafia away. Medicas can protect the other ones. We don't know who claimed Role Cop/ Alignment cop/meds...
We don't need the role I tried to pick, so me claiming shouldn't matter. Compulsive vig isn't really an epic role unless you are insanely lucky, or the town is insanely coordinated and good. So we should be good.
Alignment should check near top/Role cop should check near top. perhaps RC number 2, and alignment #1/3
Inventor could likely safely claim and coordinate atleast two protections. Seriously, hand out a vetkit/nightlight, and have a med protect him....If mafia hit a vet/bulletproof/protected target, they lose their nightkill...
Inventor shouldn't hide, and meds should protect him if mafia are likely to hit the top of the list.
Why claim later then? He says he's not going to claim, and later claims CompVigDenied-Vanilla. And, like I said, there was no need for him to roleclaim - there was no possible way it could help the town. We already knew that the CompVig was above Korynne. Unless she was lying, but his word was as good as hers. So claiming only helps the mafia really (unless you are lying to trick the mafia), because town can't really confirm that whether or not you're vanilla, but you're giving the mafia less targets to hit first. So a lot of unprovable "I'm Vanilla townie" things = I read possible scum. + Show Spoiler [His reply to me] +On May 05 2010 08:23 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 06:54 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 05 2010 06:30 Radfield wrote:Korynne is a girl folks, or at the very least, has roleclaimed girl lol. Korynne, that doesn't tell us anything, why'd you roleclaim? On May 05 2010 06:46 Radfield wrote:
In my eyes, it would be very strange for picks 1-5 to take copy cat. They can already take a good role, the only reason to take copy cat would be to deny Qatol a role.
7 and 8 are dead.
Qatol has cleared up his position in his recent novel, I'm inclined to believe him.
For now this leaves Sidesprang(9) and Opz(6). Opz at 6 is on that bubble of not making much sense to pick CC, but he might have. He also claims he went for CompVig, but of course his claim doesn't mean much for now.
Sidesprang, you happen to be at the perfect spot for taking CopyCat.
On another note. I hadn't realized we can vote on the CV hits at night. But of course this makes perfect sense and is what we should be doing.
Opz is also suspicious to me though. He claims he went for CompVig AFTER Korynne already stated that she went for it and failed - not only is that a useless roleclaim, but it's completely un-confirmable, which makes me think he might be lying. Well, you can confirm with a Role Check but that requires the Role Cop to claim, which obviously is not a good idea. His pointing out that going CC is retarded makes that just a little bit more suspicious, trying to cover his tracks and whatnot. He's also been (in general) against most of what the town has been saying, and without much justification, which is scummy to me. Definitely agree with the CV at night deal. I have a question though (read Qatol's post), who are we lynching? He/Rad I think suggested Day Vig'ing sidesprang and then lynching someone else? And what do we do in the case that no one picked Day Vig? Back to reading that essay -_- And when I die, I hope they read your name as the perpetrator who hath slain me. Just because I refuse to led around like a sheep? You go be sheep. I've also defended killing Qatol, which quite a few people jumped on that to say he should die, just based on role claims alone. Eh? Please appear less scummy to the green towny plz Darth. Thank you. Oh, and seriously, go look me up. I've been mafia once? I was silent the entire game. And every game I'm townie, I always say F the towns sheepness. I didn't bother replying with this because, we were moving on to move important things first of all, and his response didn't say anything except "this is how I play, Darth be less scummy plz." He sorta dodged the things I pointed out against him, but, once again, I didn't point this out because by the time I rechecked the thread, it would have been a waste of all of our times to reply. He's still suspicious to me, but you apparently have other concerns, so... No this is a decent argument other than the numbers thing. You really should have brought this up sooner.
Next. My thoughts about Scamp were this: as someone pointed out (Radfield maybe?), Scamp was a bit sporadic in his finger pointing. My argument was that a normal mafia wouldn't do this, imo. Mafia want to throw attention onto other people/things, not attract attention by calling out several people without justification. That's why I said that Scamp might be more town to me. It was just a personal hunch though. If you guys feel strongly about Scamp, go with it.
Those alive:
2. Foolishness - [1] [1]
3. Korynne - [1] [5]
4. Falcynn [1] [7]
5. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1]
6. ~OpZ~ - [4] [14]
10. Qatol - [6] [1]
11. JeeJee - [6] [1]
12. DarthThienAn - [8] [1]
15. Radfield - [10] [1]
16. Scamp - [10] [11]
17. Zona - [12] [1]
18. citi.zen - [12] [3]
I think Rad is innocent. I think Qatol is most likely town as well. Zona/citi.zen I haven't really looked at. Scamp I kinda thought was innocent because of his finger pointing. I'm not sure about the [1]'s, but, looking at who we have left, one of the mafia might be among them. If I was mafia, I personally wouldn't have picked [1] except to deny L first pick, but they very well could've. So what I said earlier was just a possibility - the same way that Qatol's groups, though it's very likely that they work out, are not for certain.
I actually have to go now, so I'll post this now and finish up later >_>. Class ~
Out of your statements, you said earlier you are inclined to believe that hobbes and jeejee are the same alignment. Now you just eliminated myself and radfield. I'm just wondering who that leaves. Foolishness/Korynne/Falcynn, opz, scamp, and zona/citi.zen unless hobbes and jeejee are both mafia. And one of the situations which you say is unlikely to be true pretty much must be true. I've been thinking about the medic thing a bit more. You are obviously a decently smart player (protecting Radfield over Bill Murray), so I think we should leave claiming up to you. However, you need to decide whether you want to claim right now. This is because if we put a mafia up on the chopping block, they can just claim medic to out you anyways. Serial Killer may try to do it to save their skin as well. If you do it, the mafia may just crossclaim in order to make us waste a lynch on you anyways (less likely than the other two, but possible, considering the state the game is in). The only way a player does not claim medic when they are on the chopping block is if they are an innocent non-medic. So I propose this idea: we believe a roleclaim of medic for the next 10 hours. This allows the medic to separate himself or herself from those we are actively talking about on the chopping block if necessary. If no roleclaim is forthcoming, we do not believe any future roleclaims of medic. Do not roleclaim unless you deem it absolutely necessary. We don't want to lose you tonight if we can help it. Anyone disagree with this idea? I'm confused. Won't day be well over in 10 hours? If the medic is to claim they should do it before day ends so we have ample time to move votes around. After missing a lynch on the first day I don't think we can afford to do the same thing. I'm also against the idea of the medic claiming in general because they will just die next night. The other medic is already dead (copycat is dead too, although he was mafia), BM is gone so he can't invent anything for protection. Doesn't seem like there's any way for the medic to survive the night if the mafia figure out who it is. Just because Radfield took a hit doesn't mean there's a medic. He could be SK. In fact, I think it's more likely he's SK than there was a medic protection. If he really did take a hit, it makes more sense for him to just say "I took a hit last night" as opposed to "I took a hit, thanks medic". First, he's revealed to the mafia that there is a medic (assuming he's innocent), and second, given the diverse roles available, if he just says "I took a hit" then that still leaves ambiguity in what his role could be. It's possible he was saved by a medic, he could be a veteran, he could be bulletproof, BM could have invented something (although Ace didn't say anything). Also, what's to say there's a medic protecting him and not a Jack? After writing that last paragraph, this is actually quite fishy. Nobody else claimed to take a hit. Maybe he's the SK and chose NOT to hit someone to get credibility.
Agreed - the medic claim plan does not make any sense to me.
On the Radfield issue - he would be taking a HUGE risk if he were the SK. There would likely be a medic out there knowing he lied. I don't see it.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 07 2010 05:23 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 05:13 Foolishness wrote:On May 07 2010 04:55 Qatol wrote:On May 07 2010 03:46 Scamp wrote:
The only problem with Korynne being mafia is that Foolishness would have to be mafia too. Remember that compvig was never actually confirmed, though if Radfield is telling the truth then there is one in the game (or we have a very sly mafia Joat).
Now that BM is confirmed inventor, for Korynne to lie about not getting compvig that means that Foolishness did not pick it. If Foolishness did not pick compvig then he would have no reason to lie to us at this point except if he's mafia. What? Why can't we have a mafia Korynne and an innocent Foolishness? Foolishness could have just been innocent and gone against his assignment. He does do somewhat paranoid things from time to time. Like in the speed game, he told me he was in contact with a nonexistent vigilante because he was suspicious of me. Late game, when we needed that vigi to take a shot, it didn't happen and we lost. On May 07 2010 04:24 DarthThienAn wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Qatol's post] +On May 07 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 01:01 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 06 2010 22:35 citi.zen wrote:On May 06 2010 19:09 Radfield wrote:
I have been shot at and saved by the medic. Good work medic.
Likely scenario:Foolishness kills Jspazz, Mafia shoot at me, SK kills Bill Murray.
If you think about it, BM was a bigger threat to the SK then anyone else in the game. Considering that the only way the SK can get found is either the tracker or BM's inventions.
Interesting claim that you got hit and were protected. There is only one medic in the game (at most). They could be red I suppose, but if they aren't, this would be a very hard claim to fake since someone would know you are lying. So this moves the needle a bit more towards your innocence in my mind. And it certainly means you are NOT the SK - which is nice to know. As far as BM - yes, I think he was a threat to the SK, in particular if he made some invention along the lines of what we suggested. It would provide a 3rd person with a way to find the SK and also kill them (assuming Ace allowed it to work like that). Speaking of finding people - would a townie ever take the godfather role? That and the role-blocker are much stronger in mafia hands. On May 06 2010 15:50 Bill Murray wrote:
good game guys. i was going to not invent anything as if i was a mafia i'd obviously invent something and give it to the mafia. by way of not inventing anything, i was proving to you all i was innocent.
i hope you all win. Wow, the likelihood of us lynching you for this move was decently high... oh well Yup, Bill changed his style, but isn't a better player unfortunately. In particular, when he is town he continues to be a big time liability. If he made no invention, I was going to vote for him 100%, which would be a wasted day. Given he was going to not make anything, it's actually a good thing the reds chose to kill him instead of someone else. Well... it doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't the SK. All it means that the medic actually DID protect him, or else he's taking a risk in assuming that there are no medics left in the game so that he won't get called out. However, to me, he's 99% pro-town. Hobbes and JeeJee seem to know something that no one else knows - either both of them are town, or both of them are mafia? Well... that's not necessarily true, but both of them think the other is of the same alignment at least. 1 could be mafia tricking the other into believe he is innocent using the role that they picked. As for my "fading out", I've been reading pretty relatively regularly... well not "regularly" but frequently I think. I post when I have something to contribute, or have an idea. Plus, stuff happens. We all have lives =p. On May 06 2010 19:25 Radfield wrote:
OK, lets look at some potential suspects. Foolishness certainly gets a pass for now, no reason to worry about him as long as he keeps shooting properly. But, I think it likely the mafia would have had someone put down 1 as there number, so....
Korynne: A lot of theorycrafting early on, but posting less and less as time goes on, barely contributing at all as far as our lynch suspect or compvig hit. She has continually mentioned that killing her off for info is a good idea. She voted 6th on the Sidesprang lynch with very little analysis. We would gain a bit of info from her death(if she's red then foolishness and citizen are almost certainly green) but not much
Korynne, I'm pointing the FoS at you. I don't have a great case, but I'd like to hear you on the record with who you find scummy and why, and who you think we should lynch/compvig today.
Also, I think it very unlikely that Qatol is mafia. Serial Killer maybe, but that goes for anyone at his point, no matter how pro-town they've been. Qatol basically got sidesprang killed by revealing that he went for copycat and missed. I can't think of any good reason for sidesprang's or qatol's actions if they were mafia buddies. I'm not sure the mafia would've put someone down as 1. I mean, we basically had two or three people claiming they were going 1, 1 early right? I know L said that. It seems silly for them to waste their time doesn't it? The only reason I see them doing it, is they are assuming that only one person would pick 1,1, so they want to deny that person getting first pick. Okay without Hobbes/JeeJee as mafia and without anyone who picked 1 as mafia, and I'll take out yourself and radfield you are basically saying the mafia are 3 of these 4: Opz, scamp, zona/citizen, and myself. Is that an accurate assessment of the situation to you? On May 07 2010 01:23 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 00:12 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
JeeJee, I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about. It would be nice if I could PM you to be sure, but I think we're on the same page here. In that case, I'm pretty sure you're also town-aligned Well, as far as I'm concerned this takes both Hobbes and JeeJee off the short list. They might both be mafia together, but in that case one will lead us to the other. Qatol, I was re-reading those posts I put up this morning, and I was a little bit confused as to why I put Citizen on that non-mafia list as well. The reason is this though, pretty much everyone on my suspicious list has called out citizen as potential mafia. Citizen style this game also just seems so obviously scummy, (right down to the pointless arguing with you, when you are very obviously in my eyes non-mafia) that I'm inclined to think him a townie. If pressed I would take him off the non-mafia list, but I don't think him all that likely to be scummy. As far as Falcynn, my sole reasoning is that he immediately agreed with my origional post about sidesprang, and the way he worded everything strikes me as town. No one else had agreed with me about Sidesprang yet, and yet he was still the first one aboard. I think a mafia would have been slightly less ok with it. The post I'm referring to: Show nested quote +On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: Show nested quote On May 04 2010 21:08 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler +2b Falcynn wishy washily claimed VANILLA without actually doing it Alright, I guess I should clearly state, I'm a vanilla townie. I decided not to make mention of it since . Was preparing for/doing this on Friday/Saturday http://www.filmracing.com/Cities/sanfrancisco.htm and missed the role claims because of it. I'll make a blog of it Thursday night/Friday since we're not allowed to upload our video until after the screening (yeah, this is really more to just get attention for my future blog post then to actually explain myself ) Anyways, as for lynching sidesprang, you're logic seems pretty sound, I guess at this point with all the information that's been gathered, it'd be nice to make sure whether or not everyone at the top of the list has been telling the truth about their roles. If we can get a day vig hit then that might help, although I'm not sure if we'd be able to figure out another lynch target and pile the votes on them in time. It'd suck to essentially waste a day vig hit by not getting the lynch to add to it =/ On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: oh right ##vote sidesprang ## Korynne: I completely understand what you're saying about possibly being burnt out etc. However, I think you're a very clever player. You played your first game as a very active townie, you played your second game as a very active mafia, and being very convincing at that. I'm inclined to think that if you got mafia again in this game, you might play it exactly the way you are. Fake being tired of Mafia as an excuse to post less. Unfortunately for all of us, there's little you can do at this point to remove suspicion from yourself. Anyways, I'm genuinely hoping you're mafia, and that you're burnt out routine is an act, because you seem like a good player to have around. Show nested quote +Who do you think is the strongest candidate for mafia on that list? Cases have been made against JeeJee and Scamp so far. Out of the other players, both Darth and Korynne started out strong, but have really faded due to recent inactivity (which is actually a pretty strong scum tell usually). I don't believe Hobbes was super active at any point in the game? What do you think about OpZ? Korynne is a good target, because I think despite her alignment, she told the truth about being Vanilla. So worst case scenario we kill a vanilla townie who isn't that upset about being killed anyways, but gives us a lead to Foolishness maybe. Best case we get a vanilla mafia. JeeJee and Hobbes should get a pass for today, but if a bunch of other targets turn up innocent, we might have to hit them both. At some point the information they are sharing needs to be made public. If we don't hit a mafia with our lynch or comphit hit today, and the SK hits another townie, we'll need as much info as we can get. If we had to lynch one of them, I'd go with JeeJee I stand by what I said earlier about Scamp, but if we decide to lynch him and he is the medic, then he needs to roleclaim. If no one contradicts him, then we call off the lynch. Keep in mind, the medic is basically a confirmed townie, and pretty much a confirmed non-SK. I can't see why the SK would take medic as a role, though perhaps to deny it from the town, perhaps because it gives him/her a convenient cover. ~opz~: I think Opz threw me off his trail by his vehement defense when I called him out. He just seemed outraged that I was wasting time by putting him on any suspect lists. What made me suspect him was how he tried to sidetrack my Sidesprang argument, but looking at it now makes me think it was just a knee-jerk reaction of seeing his name on a suspect list. I also buy his story of trying for CompVig and failing. Likely Vanilla either way. Personally his posting makes me think he's town. I put him as a second string lynch target for now. DarthTheinAn seems suspect. He made a case against ~opz~ early on. Votes for Jspazz over JeeJee for the CV hit. Try's to give Scamp a pass for being TOO mafia. None of these things necessarily make him a mafia. But his posting in general smacks of mafia to me, I recommend everyone look through his posting. Points out lots of obvious stuff, steers the convo away from certain people, lots of theorycrafting early on, not much talk about voting later on. Darth seems mafia, and seems like he might lead us to other mafia. I vote we lynch DarthTheinAn, If he flops red, then I propose we Compvig Scamp, and ask the SK to hit JeeJee ##Vote DarthTheinAn##I haven't really talked about Zona, but I really don't have much to say about him. He seems fairly legit and is likely working hard on the zbot.... I didn't proofread as I've run out of time and steam. If there's anything I said that doesn't make sense please point it out. Alright. Let me explain myself, hopefully in full. I personally don't buy that something like a third of the players in the game are Vanilla because they "forgot" to PM Ace with their picks or they picked something already picked. THREE people picked Comp Vig, Opz being the lowest one down - he claimed he didn't read the thread before picking which is just dumb to me, and is one of the things that made me suspicious. Well, let's first rewind - the first thing that made me notice him was the fact that picked [4][14], which was coincidentally d3's number. But no one else seemed to care and we were steering away from the draft analysis, so I didn't bring it up again and distract the thread. That's because nobody really had anything to gain by claiming that little quirk. opz had to have picked [4][?]. The second number really isn't that important. Back to his role. Foolishness and Korynne (I'm assuming Foolishness is the CV and Korynne also picked it) I sort of understand picking CV because Foolishness... might have wanted CV (? Don't really know why he went for it) and Korynne picked it as per what the town was discussing iirc. But Opz, I don't really understand at all. There's no reason why you would do that, the same as if there's no reason why anyone would have picked copycat, except for mafia. What's more, as I said when I called him out, is that he claimed going for Comp Vig after Korynne had long been talking about it, which makes it really easy for him to lie, similar to the way some of the numbers people claimed could be lies. He also said this early on: + Show Spoiler [Opz's post] +On May 03 2010 14:42 ~OpZ~ wrote:
It also gives the perfect opportunity for meds to just protect a smaller list of people. Inventor could claim, give someone from the top a veteran kit/bulletproof kit/nightlight to keep away the evil mafia away. Medicas can protect the other ones. We don't know who claimed Role Cop/ Alignment cop/meds...
We don't need the role I tried to pick, so me claiming shouldn't matter. Compulsive vig isn't really an epic role unless you are insanely lucky, or the town is insanely coordinated and good. So we should be good.
Alignment should check near top/Role cop should check near top. perhaps RC number 2, and alignment #1/3
Inventor could likely safely claim and coordinate atleast two protections. Seriously, hand out a vetkit/nightlight, and have a med protect him....If mafia hit a vet/bulletproof/protected target, they lose their nightkill...
Inventor shouldn't hide, and meds should protect him if mafia are likely to hit the top of the list.
Why claim later then? He says he's not going to claim, and later claims CompVigDenied-Vanilla. And, like I said, there was no need for him to roleclaim - there was no possible way it could help the town. We already knew that the CompVig was above Korynne. Unless she was lying, but his word was as good as hers. So claiming only helps the mafia really (unless you are lying to trick the mafia), because town can't really confirm that whether or not you're vanilla, but you're giving the mafia less targets to hit first. So a lot of unprovable "I'm Vanilla townie" things = I read possible scum. + Show Spoiler [His reply to me] +On May 05 2010 08:23 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 06:54 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 05 2010 06:30 Radfield wrote:Korynne is a girl folks, or at the very least, has roleclaimed girl lol. Korynne, that doesn't tell us anything, why'd you roleclaim? On May 05 2010 06:46 Radfield wrote:
In my eyes, it would be very strange for picks 1-5 to take copy cat. They can already take a good role, the only reason to take copy cat would be to deny Qatol a role.
7 and 8 are dead.
Qatol has cleared up his position in his recent novel, I'm inclined to believe him.
For now this leaves Sidesprang(9) and Opz(6). Opz at 6 is on that bubble of not making much sense to pick CC, but he might have. He also claims he went for CompVig, but of course his claim doesn't mean much for now.
Sidesprang, you happen to be at the perfect spot for taking CopyCat.
On another note. I hadn't realized we can vote on the CV hits at night. But of course this makes perfect sense and is what we should be doing.
Opz is also suspicious to me though. He claims he went for CompVig AFTER Korynne already stated that she went for it and failed - not only is that a useless roleclaim, but it's completely un-confirmable, which makes me think he might be lying. Well, you can confirm with a Role Check but that requires the Role Cop to claim, which obviously is not a good idea. His pointing out that going CC is retarded makes that just a little bit more suspicious, trying to cover his tracks and whatnot. He's also been (in general) against most of what the town has been saying, and without much justification, which is scummy to me. Definitely agree with the CV at night deal. I have a question though (read Qatol's post), who are we lynching? He/Rad I think suggested Day Vig'ing sidesprang and then lynching someone else? And what do we do in the case that no one picked Day Vig? Back to reading that essay -_- And when I die, I hope they read your name as the perpetrator who hath slain me. Just because I refuse to led around like a sheep? You go be sheep. I've also defended killing Qatol, which quite a few people jumped on that to say he should die, just based on role claims alone. Eh? Please appear less scummy to the green towny plz Darth. Thank you. Oh, and seriously, go look me up. I've been mafia once? I was silent the entire game. And every game I'm townie, I always say F the towns sheepness. I didn't bother replying with this because, we were moving on to move important things first of all, and his response didn't say anything except "this is how I play, Darth be less scummy plz." He sorta dodged the things I pointed out against him, but, once again, I didn't point this out because by the time I rechecked the thread, it would have been a waste of all of our times to reply. He's still suspicious to me, but you apparently have other concerns, so... No this is a decent argument other than the numbers thing. You really should have brought this up sooner.
Next. My thoughts about Scamp were this: as someone pointed out (Radfield maybe?), Scamp was a bit sporadic in his finger pointing. My argument was that a normal mafia wouldn't do this, imo. Mafia want to throw attention onto other people/things, not attract attention by calling out several people without justification. That's why I said that Scamp might be more town to me. It was just a personal hunch though. If you guys feel strongly about Scamp, go with it.
Those alive:
2. Foolishness - [1] [1]
3. Korynne - [1] [5]
4. Falcynn [1] [7]
5. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1]
6. ~OpZ~ - [4] [14]
10. Qatol - [6] [1]
11. JeeJee - [6] [1]
12. DarthThienAn - [8] [1]
15. Radfield - [10] [1]
16. Scamp - [10] [11]
17. Zona - [12] [1]
18. citi.zen - [12] [3]
I think Rad is innocent. I think Qatol is most likely town as well. Zona/citi.zen I haven't really looked at. Scamp I kinda thought was innocent because of his finger pointing. I'm not sure about the [1]'s, but, looking at who we have left, one of the mafia might be among them. If I was mafia, I personally wouldn't have picked [1] except to deny L first pick, but they very well could've. So what I said earlier was just a possibility - the same way that Qatol's groups, though it's very likely that they work out, are not for certain.
I actually have to go now, so I'll post this now and finish up later >_>. Class ~
Out of your statements, you said earlier you are inclined to believe that hobbes and jeejee are the same alignment. Now you just eliminated myself and radfield. I'm just wondering who that leaves. Foolishness/Korynne/Falcynn, opz, scamp, and zona/citi.zen unless hobbes and jeejee are both mafia. And one of the situations which you say is unlikely to be true pretty much must be true. I've been thinking about the medic thing a bit more. You are obviously a decently smart player (protecting Radfield over Bill Murray), so I think we should leave claiming up to you. However, you need to decide whether you want to claim right now. This is because if we put a mafia up on the chopping block, they can just claim medic to out you anyways. Serial Killer may try to do it to save their skin as well. If you do it, the mafia may just crossclaim in order to make us waste a lynch on you anyways (less likely than the other two, but possible, considering the state the game is in). The only way a player does not claim medic when they are on the chopping block is if they are an innocent non-medic. So I propose this idea: we believe a roleclaim of medic for the next 10 hours. This allows the medic to separate himself or herself from those we are actively talking about on the chopping block if necessary. If no roleclaim is forthcoming, we do not believe any future roleclaims of medic. Do not roleclaim unless you deem it absolutely necessary. We don't want to lose you tonight if we can help it. Anyone disagree with this idea? I'm confused. Won't day be well over in 10 hours? If the medic is to claim they should do it before day ends so we have ample time to move votes around. After missing a lynch on the first day I don't think we can afford to do the same thing. I'm also against the idea of the medic claiming in general because they will just die next night. The other medic is already dead (copycat is dead too, although he was mafia), BM is gone so he can't invent anything for protection. Doesn't seem like there's any way for the medic to survive the night if the mafia figure out who it is. Just because Radfield took a hit doesn't mean there's a medic. He could be SK. In fact, I think it's more likely he's SK than there was a medic protection. If he really did take a hit, it makes more sense for him to just say "I took a hit last night" as opposed to "I took a hit, thanks medic". First, he's revealed to the mafia that there is a medic (assuming he's innocent), and second, given the diverse roles available, if he just says "I took a hit" then that still leaves ambiguity in what his role could be. It's possible he was saved by a medic, he could be a veteran, he could be bulletproof, BM could have invented something (although Ace didn't say anything). Also, what's to say there's a medic protecting him and not a Jack? After writing that last paragraph, this is actually quite fishy. Nobody else claimed to take a hit. Maybe he's the SK and chose NOT to hit someone to get credibility. Agreed - the medic claim plan does not make any sense to me. On the Radfield issue - he would be taking a HUGE risk if he were the SK. There would likely be a medic out there knowing he lied. I don't see it.
Maybe not. There could be a Jack protection. Given the lack of roles that were obtained in this game, it's very possible there's no other medic. It still doesn't add up. There's no way he could know there was a medic
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There's no way he could know there was a medic
No, but he would have to think it possible and thus a risk - it does not seem worthwhile. Especially given how little doubt there was about him at the time - seems like overkill, draws a lot of attention, and requires missing out on killing someone. I highly doubt it would make sense.
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On May 07 2010 05:34 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 05:23 citi.zen wrote:On May 07 2010 05:13 Foolishness wrote:On May 07 2010 04:55 Qatol wrote:On May 07 2010 03:46 Scamp wrote:
The only problem with Korynne being mafia is that Foolishness would have to be mafia too. Remember that compvig was never actually confirmed, though if Radfield is telling the truth then there is one in the game (or we have a very sly mafia Joat).
Now that BM is confirmed inventor, for Korynne to lie about not getting compvig that means that Foolishness did not pick it. If Foolishness did not pick compvig then he would have no reason to lie to us at this point except if he's mafia. What? Why can't we have a mafia Korynne and an innocent Foolishness? Foolishness could have just been innocent and gone against his assignment. He does do somewhat paranoid things from time to time. Like in the speed game, he told me he was in contact with a nonexistent vigilante because he was suspicious of me. Late game, when we needed that vigi to take a shot, it didn't happen and we lost. On May 07 2010 04:24 DarthThienAn wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Qatol's post] +On May 07 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 01:01 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 06 2010 22:35 citi.zen wrote:On May 06 2010 19:09 Radfield wrote:
I have been shot at and saved by the medic. Good work medic.
Likely scenario:Foolishness kills Jspazz, Mafia shoot at me, SK kills Bill Murray.
If you think about it, BM was a bigger threat to the SK then anyone else in the game. Considering that the only way the SK can get found is either the tracker or BM's inventions.
Interesting claim that you got hit and were protected. There is only one medic in the game (at most). They could be red I suppose, but if they aren't, this would be a very hard claim to fake since someone would know you are lying. So this moves the needle a bit more towards your innocence in my mind. And it certainly means you are NOT the SK - which is nice to know. As far as BM - yes, I think he was a threat to the SK, in particular if he made some invention along the lines of what we suggested. It would provide a 3rd person with a way to find the SK and also kill them (assuming Ace allowed it to work like that). Speaking of finding people - would a townie ever take the godfather role? That and the role-blocker are much stronger in mafia hands. On May 06 2010 15:50 Bill Murray wrote:
good game guys. i was going to not invent anything as if i was a mafia i'd obviously invent something and give it to the mafia. by way of not inventing anything, i was proving to you all i was innocent.
i hope you all win. Wow, the likelihood of us lynching you for this move was decently high... oh well Yup, Bill changed his style, but isn't a better player unfortunately. In particular, when he is town he continues to be a big time liability. If he made no invention, I was going to vote for him 100%, which would be a wasted day. Given he was going to not make anything, it's actually a good thing the reds chose to kill him instead of someone else. Well... it doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't the SK. All it means that the medic actually DID protect him, or else he's taking a risk in assuming that there are no medics left in the game so that he won't get called out. However, to me, he's 99% pro-town. Hobbes and JeeJee seem to know something that no one else knows - either both of them are town, or both of them are mafia? Well... that's not necessarily true, but both of them think the other is of the same alignment at least. 1 could be mafia tricking the other into believe he is innocent using the role that they picked. As for my "fading out", I've been reading pretty relatively regularly... well not "regularly" but frequently I think. I post when I have something to contribute, or have an idea. Plus, stuff happens. We all have lives =p. On May 06 2010 19:25 Radfield wrote:
OK, lets look at some potential suspects. Foolishness certainly gets a pass for now, no reason to worry about him as long as he keeps shooting properly. But, I think it likely the mafia would have had someone put down 1 as there number, so....
Korynne: A lot of theorycrafting early on, but posting less and less as time goes on, barely contributing at all as far as our lynch suspect or compvig hit. She has continually mentioned that killing her off for info is a good idea. She voted 6th on the Sidesprang lynch with very little analysis. We would gain a bit of info from her death(if she's red then foolishness and citizen are almost certainly green) but not much
Korynne, I'm pointing the FoS at you. I don't have a great case, but I'd like to hear you on the record with who you find scummy and why, and who you think we should lynch/compvig today.
Also, I think it very unlikely that Qatol is mafia. Serial Killer maybe, but that goes for anyone at his point, no matter how pro-town they've been. Qatol basically got sidesprang killed by revealing that he went for copycat and missed. I can't think of any good reason for sidesprang's or qatol's actions if they were mafia buddies. I'm not sure the mafia would've put someone down as 1. I mean, we basically had two or three people claiming they were going 1, 1 early right? I know L said that. It seems silly for them to waste their time doesn't it? The only reason I see them doing it, is they are assuming that only one person would pick 1,1, so they want to deny that person getting first pick. Okay without Hobbes/JeeJee as mafia and without anyone who picked 1 as mafia, and I'll take out yourself and radfield you are basically saying the mafia are 3 of these 4: Opz, scamp, zona/citizen, and myself. Is that an accurate assessment of the situation to you? On May 07 2010 01:23 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 00:12 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
JeeJee, I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about. It would be nice if I could PM you to be sure, but I think we're on the same page here. In that case, I'm pretty sure you're also town-aligned Well, as far as I'm concerned this takes both Hobbes and JeeJee off the short list. They might both be mafia together, but in that case one will lead us to the other. Qatol, I was re-reading those posts I put up this morning, and I was a little bit confused as to why I put Citizen on that non-mafia list as well. The reason is this though, pretty much everyone on my suspicious list has called out citizen as potential mafia. Citizen style this game also just seems so obviously scummy, (right down to the pointless arguing with you, when you are very obviously in my eyes non-mafia) that I'm inclined to think him a townie. If pressed I would take him off the non-mafia list, but I don't think him all that likely to be scummy. As far as Falcynn, my sole reasoning is that he immediately agreed with my origional post about sidesprang, and the way he worded everything strikes me as town. No one else had agreed with me about Sidesprang yet, and yet he was still the first one aboard. I think a mafia would have been slightly less ok with it. The post I'm referring to: Show nested quote +On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: Show nested quote On May 04 2010 21:08 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler +2b Falcynn wishy washily claimed VANILLA without actually doing it Alright, I guess I should clearly state, I'm a vanilla townie. I decided not to make mention of it since . Was preparing for/doing this on Friday/Saturday http://www.filmracing.com/Cities/sanfrancisco.htm and missed the role claims because of it. I'll make a blog of it Thursday night/Friday since we're not allowed to upload our video until after the screening (yeah, this is really more to just get attention for my future blog post then to actually explain myself ) Anyways, as for lynching sidesprang, you're logic seems pretty sound, I guess at this point with all the information that's been gathered, it'd be nice to make sure whether or not everyone at the top of the list has been telling the truth about their roles. If we can get a day vig hit then that might help, although I'm not sure if we'd be able to figure out another lynch target and pile the votes on them in time. It'd suck to essentially waste a day vig hit by not getting the lynch to add to it =/ On May 04 2010 22:52 Falcynn wrote: oh right ##vote sidesprang ## Korynne: I completely understand what you're saying about possibly being burnt out etc. However, I think you're a very clever player. You played your first game as a very active townie, you played your second game as a very active mafia, and being very convincing at that. I'm inclined to think that if you got mafia again in this game, you might play it exactly the way you are. Fake being tired of Mafia as an excuse to post less. Unfortunately for all of us, there's little you can do at this point to remove suspicion from yourself. Anyways, I'm genuinely hoping you're mafia, and that you're burnt out routine is an act, because you seem like a good player to have around. Show nested quote +Who do you think is the strongest candidate for mafia on that list? Cases have been made against JeeJee and Scamp so far. Out of the other players, both Darth and Korynne started out strong, but have really faded due to recent inactivity (which is actually a pretty strong scum tell usually). I don't believe Hobbes was super active at any point in the game? What do you think about OpZ? Korynne is a good target, because I think despite her alignment, she told the truth about being Vanilla. So worst case scenario we kill a vanilla townie who isn't that upset about being killed anyways, but gives us a lead to Foolishness maybe. Best case we get a vanilla mafia. JeeJee and Hobbes should get a pass for today, but if a bunch of other targets turn up innocent, we might have to hit them both. At some point the information they are sharing needs to be made public. If we don't hit a mafia with our lynch or comphit hit today, and the SK hits another townie, we'll need as much info as we can get. If we had to lynch one of them, I'd go with JeeJee I stand by what I said earlier about Scamp, but if we decide to lynch him and he is the medic, then he needs to roleclaim. If no one contradicts him, then we call off the lynch. Keep in mind, the medic is basically a confirmed townie, and pretty much a confirmed non-SK. I can't see why the SK would take medic as a role, though perhaps to deny it from the town, perhaps because it gives him/her a convenient cover. ~opz~: I think Opz threw me off his trail by his vehement defense when I called him out. He just seemed outraged that I was wasting time by putting him on any suspect lists. What made me suspect him was how he tried to sidetrack my Sidesprang argument, but looking at it now makes me think it was just a knee-jerk reaction of seeing his name on a suspect list. I also buy his story of trying for CompVig and failing. Likely Vanilla either way. Personally his posting makes me think he's town. I put him as a second string lynch target for now. DarthTheinAn seems suspect. He made a case against ~opz~ early on. Votes for Jspazz over JeeJee for the CV hit. Try's to give Scamp a pass for being TOO mafia. None of these things necessarily make him a mafia. But his posting in general smacks of mafia to me, I recommend everyone look through his posting. Points out lots of obvious stuff, steers the convo away from certain people, lots of theorycrafting early on, not much talk about voting later on. Darth seems mafia, and seems like he might lead us to other mafia. I vote we lynch DarthTheinAn, If he flops red, then I propose we Compvig Scamp, and ask the SK to hit JeeJee ##Vote DarthTheinAn##I haven't really talked about Zona, but I really don't have much to say about him. He seems fairly legit and is likely working hard on the zbot.... I didn't proofread as I've run out of time and steam. If there's anything I said that doesn't make sense please point it out. Alright. Let me explain myself, hopefully in full. I personally don't buy that something like a third of the players in the game are Vanilla because they "forgot" to PM Ace with their picks or they picked something already picked. THREE people picked Comp Vig, Opz being the lowest one down - he claimed he didn't read the thread before picking which is just dumb to me, and is one of the things that made me suspicious. Well, let's first rewind - the first thing that made me notice him was the fact that picked [4][14], which was coincidentally d3's number. But no one else seemed to care and we were steering away from the draft analysis, so I didn't bring it up again and distract the thread. That's because nobody really had anything to gain by claiming that little quirk. opz had to have picked [4][?]. The second number really isn't that important. Back to his role. Foolishness and Korynne (I'm assuming Foolishness is the CV and Korynne also picked it) I sort of understand picking CV because Foolishness... might have wanted CV (? Don't really know why he went for it) and Korynne picked it as per what the town was discussing iirc. But Opz, I don't really understand at all. There's no reason why you would do that, the same as if there's no reason why anyone would have picked copycat, except for mafia. What's more, as I said when I called him out, is that he claimed going for Comp Vig after Korynne had long been talking about it, which makes it really easy for him to lie, similar to the way some of the numbers people claimed could be lies. He also said this early on: + Show Spoiler [Opz's post] +On May 03 2010 14:42 ~OpZ~ wrote:
It also gives the perfect opportunity for meds to just protect a smaller list of people. Inventor could claim, give someone from the top a veteran kit/bulletproof kit/nightlight to keep away the evil mafia away. Medicas can protect the other ones. We don't know who claimed Role Cop/ Alignment cop/meds...
We don't need the role I tried to pick, so me claiming shouldn't matter. Compulsive vig isn't really an epic role unless you are insanely lucky, or the town is insanely coordinated and good. So we should be good.
Alignment should check near top/Role cop should check near top. perhaps RC number 2, and alignment #1/3
Inventor could likely safely claim and coordinate atleast two protections. Seriously, hand out a vetkit/nightlight, and have a med protect him....If mafia hit a vet/bulletproof/protected target, they lose their nightkill...
Inventor shouldn't hide, and meds should protect him if mafia are likely to hit the top of the list.
Why claim later then? He says he's not going to claim, and later claims CompVigDenied-Vanilla. And, like I said, there was no need for him to roleclaim - there was no possible way it could help the town. We already knew that the CompVig was above Korynne. Unless she was lying, but his word was as good as hers. So claiming only helps the mafia really (unless you are lying to trick the mafia), because town can't really confirm that whether or not you're vanilla, but you're giving the mafia less targets to hit first. So a lot of unprovable "I'm Vanilla townie" things = I read possible scum. + Show Spoiler [His reply to me] +On May 05 2010 08:23 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 06:54 DarthThienAn wrote:On May 05 2010 06:30 Radfield wrote:Korynne is a girl folks, or at the very least, has roleclaimed girl lol. Korynne, that doesn't tell us anything, why'd you roleclaim? On May 05 2010 06:46 Radfield wrote:
In my eyes, it would be very strange for picks 1-5 to take copy cat. They can already take a good role, the only reason to take copy cat would be to deny Qatol a role.
7 and 8 are dead.
Qatol has cleared up his position in his recent novel, I'm inclined to believe him.
For now this leaves Sidesprang(9) and Opz(6). Opz at 6 is on that bubble of not making much sense to pick CC, but he might have. He also claims he went for CompVig, but of course his claim doesn't mean much for now.
Sidesprang, you happen to be at the perfect spot for taking CopyCat.
On another note. I hadn't realized we can vote on the CV hits at night. But of course this makes perfect sense and is what we should be doing.
Opz is also suspicious to me though. He claims he went for CompVig AFTER Korynne already stated that she went for it and failed - not only is that a useless roleclaim, but it's completely un-confirmable, which makes me think he might be lying. Well, you can confirm with a Role Check but that requires the Role Cop to claim, which obviously is not a good idea. His pointing out that going CC is retarded makes that just a little bit more suspicious, trying to cover his tracks and whatnot. He's also been (in general) against most of what the town has been saying, and without much justification, which is scummy to me. Definitely agree with the CV at night deal. I have a question though (read Qatol's post), who are we lynching? He/Rad I think suggested Day Vig'ing sidesprang and then lynching someone else? And what do we do in the case that no one picked Day Vig? Back to reading that essay -_- And when I die, I hope they read your name as the perpetrator who hath slain me. Just because I refuse to led around like a sheep? You go be sheep. I've also defended killing Qatol, which quite a few people jumped on that to say he should die, just based on role claims alone. Eh? Please appear less scummy to the green towny plz Darth. Thank you. Oh, and seriously, go look me up. I've been mafia once? I was silent the entire game. And every game I'm townie, I always say F the towns sheepness. I didn't bother replying with this because, we were moving on to move important things first of all, and his response didn't say anything except "this is how I play, Darth be less scummy plz." He sorta dodged the things I pointed out against him, but, once again, I didn't point this out because by the time I rechecked the thread, it would have been a waste of all of our times to reply. He's still suspicious to me, but you apparently have other concerns, so... No this is a decent argument other than the numbers thing. You really should have brought this up sooner.
Next. My thoughts about Scamp were this: as someone pointed out (Radfield maybe?), Scamp was a bit sporadic in his finger pointing. My argument was that a normal mafia wouldn't do this, imo. Mafia want to throw attention onto other people/things, not attract attention by calling out several people without justification. That's why I said that Scamp might be more town to me. It was just a personal hunch though. If you guys feel strongly about Scamp, go with it.
Those alive:
2. Foolishness - [1] [1]
3. Korynne - [1] [5]
4. Falcynn [1] [7]
5. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1]
6. ~OpZ~ - [4] [14]
10. Qatol - [6] [1]
11. JeeJee - [6] [1]
12. DarthThienAn - [8] [1]
15. Radfield - [10] [1]
16. Scamp - [10] [11]
17. Zona - [12] [1]
18. citi.zen - [12] [3]
I think Rad is innocent. I think Qatol is most likely town as well. Zona/citi.zen I haven't really looked at. Scamp I kinda thought was innocent because of his finger pointing. I'm not sure about the [1]'s, but, looking at who we have left, one of the mafia might be among them. If I was mafia, I personally wouldn't have picked [1] except to deny L first pick, but they very well could've. So what I said earlier was just a possibility - the same way that Qatol's groups, though it's very likely that they work out, are not for certain.
I actually have to go now, so I'll post this now and finish up later >_>. Class ~
Out of your statements, you said earlier you are inclined to believe that hobbes and jeejee are the same alignment. Now you just eliminated myself and radfield. I'm just wondering who that leaves. Foolishness/Korynne/Falcynn, opz, scamp, and zona/citi.zen unless hobbes and jeejee are both mafia. And one of the situations which you say is unlikely to be true pretty much must be true. I've been thinking about the medic thing a bit more. You are obviously a decently smart player (protecting Radfield over Bill Murray), so I think we should leave claiming up to you. However, you need to decide whether you want to claim right now. This is because if we put a mafia up on the chopping block, they can just claim medic to out you anyways. Serial Killer may try to do it to save their skin as well. If you do it, the mafia may just crossclaim in order to make us waste a lynch on you anyways (less likely than the other two, but possible, considering the state the game is in). The only way a player does not claim medic when they are on the chopping block is if they are an innocent non-medic. So I propose this idea: we believe a roleclaim of medic for the next 10 hours. This allows the medic to separate himself or herself from those we are actively talking about on the chopping block if necessary. If no roleclaim is forthcoming, we do not believe any future roleclaims of medic. Do not roleclaim unless you deem it absolutely necessary. We don't want to lose you tonight if we can help it. Anyone disagree with this idea? I'm confused. Won't day be well over in 10 hours? If the medic is to claim they should do it before day ends so we have ample time to move votes around. After missing a lynch on the first day I don't think we can afford to do the same thing. I'm also against the idea of the medic claiming in general because they will just die next night. The other medic is already dead (copycat is dead too, although he was mafia), BM is gone so he can't invent anything for protection. Doesn't seem like there's any way for the medic to survive the night if the mafia figure out who it is. Just because Radfield took a hit doesn't mean there's a medic. He could be SK. In fact, I think it's more likely he's SK than there was a medic protection. If he really did take a hit, it makes more sense for him to just say "I took a hit last night" as opposed to "I took a hit, thanks medic". First, he's revealed to the mafia that there is a medic (assuming he's innocent), and second, given the diverse roles available, if he just says "I took a hit" then that still leaves ambiguity in what his role could be. It's possible he was saved by a medic, he could be a veteran, he could be bulletproof, BM could have invented something (although Ace didn't say anything). Also, what's to say there's a medic protecting him and not a Jack? After writing that last paragraph, this is actually quite fishy. Nobody else claimed to take a hit. Maybe he's the SK and chose NOT to hit someone to get credibility. Agreed - the medic claim plan does not make any sense to me. On the Radfield issue - he would be taking a HUGE risk if he were the SK. There would likely be a medic out there knowing he lied. I don't see it. Maybe not. There could be a Jack protection. Given the lack of roles that were obtained in this game, it's very possible there's no other medic. It still doesn't add up. There's no way he could know there was a medic
Okay you are totally right. Sorry, I'm still used to 48 hour days. We just don't have time to deal with a medic claim. I don't think that as a SK he would claim to be protected by a medic unless he was holding the role himself. Otherwise, those sorts of things can wind up coming back to bite you pretty badly, especially considering the emphasis we put on people taking that role during the role selection.
Regardless, we need to pick someone and start voting. So who is the most suspicious to you and why?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Just because Radfield took a hit doesn't mean there's a medic. He could be SK. In fact, I think it's more likely he's SK than there was a medic protection. If he really did take a hit, it makes more sense for him to just say "I took a hit last night" as opposed to "I took a hit, thanks medic". First, he's revealed to the mafia that there is a medic (assuming he's innocent), and second, given the diverse roles available, if he just says "I took a hit" then that still leaves ambiguity in what his role could be. It's possible he was saved by a medic, he could be a veteran, he could be bulletproof, BM could have invented something (although Ace didn't say anything). Also, what's to say there's a medic protecting him and not a Jack?
You're might be right here Foolishness. It's possible I shouldn't have revealed that I was saved by a medic, and should have left the ambiguity of bulletproof or veteran. I had other things on my mind(korynne and the SK), and wanted to get the info about what happened out into the open. I also didn't consider the possibility of the Joat. Anyways, I DID get saved last night, so I guarantee there is either a medic or a joat in the game. However, the only real way to prove I'm not lying is to put my name on the chopping block, and see if someone pops up to confirm me. We have better targets for now though, especially considering I'm about as non-mafia as you can get right now. At worst I'm an elaborately lying SK, and with things the way they are, the SK is the least of our worries.
Also, please post who you think we should lynch. While your post has some good points, it's mainly a big sidetrack.
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On May 07 2010 02:21 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2010 01:59 Radfield wrote:First thing that jumps out at me is if you believe the mafia didn't intentionally pick the same number (on 6 or 8 no less), JeeJee and Darth are not mafia together. That's a good point. JeeJee and Darth are likely not mafia together. JeeJee is less likely overall given the fact that he possibly shares numbers with Sidesprang. It is possible he lied about them. Worth checking the time stamps on all the number claims to see if he was totally in the clear when he posted his numbers. If he was, it gives that defence less credibility. Either Scamp or Darth are good targets. I don't mind lynching either one. Whoever the medic is out there, be sure to roleclaim if you are going to be killed by the town, whether it by lynching, CV or suggested SK hit. As far as I'm concerned, the medic is very very likely pro-town. Unfortunately this quickly lowers the possible people the medic could be, and makes his/her death-by-mafia much more likely. Lets just hope there's a meth-man out there as well to keep the mafia honest. I already checked the time stamps. The people who could have plausibly lied are JeeJee and Falcynn. Scamp technically could have, but he would need serious guts to have done so. That's why I think we are basically stuck with a coin flip between the two unless someone has a strong case to go for one over the other. We can just day vig/CV one of us and lynch the other. Although I'm actually not really sold on JeeJee, I'll try to get back in time to do my own analysis on him. Considering Qatol has struck me as suspicious a few times, I'm not just ready to take his word for it, but if other people share the same sentiment that it's very likely either JeeJee or I are lying then I wouldn't be too opposed to essentially a double lynch.
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