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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On November 04 2022 01:27 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2022 18:43 Slydie wrote:On November 03 2022 09:12 Falling wrote:On November 02 2022 20:22 Mikau313 wrote:On November 02 2022 18:55 Elroi wrote:On October 30 2022 04:39 Sermokala wrote:On October 29 2022 23:37 BlackJack wrote:On October 29 2022 21:43 Slydie wrote:On October 29 2022 02:42 BlackJack wrote:On October 29 2022 02:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]
Plenty of us have provided data showing that closing schools helped reduce the spread and helped communities/hospitals manage their cases, including me, throughout this thread. That's why businesses were also closed, and why social distancing was stressed. Remember that one of our main criticisms of your #12730 post is that you conveniently ignored that important benefit of closing schools, which was shocking to a lot of us because we already covered that, several times, and it had appeared (at least, to me) that that benefit was also worthy of recognition to you, in the past... yet your recent set of posts seems to no longer take that into consideration.
If you're pointing out that that specific post of mine didn't repeat the data that has already been established, then you're correct. If you don't think that closing schools reduced the spread of infection, then we can definitely post more data about the importance of social distancing and closing down areas where large groups congregate, but I think this is something you already know, so I don't know why you're deflecting with this line of reasoning. Seems like you're trying to score a weird semantics point against me, right as I'm trying to help you smooth things over in the thread. You and I have disagreed on plenty of points in this thread, but that doesn't mean I enjoy watching conversations between you and other people constantly devolve into mudslinging. Oof. Yes keeping schools closed helps reduced the spread. That's an obvious truth, you don't need to provide data on that. Just like keeping schools closed harmed the education and upbringing of children is an obvious truth. They are competing interests/problems with keeping schools open vs closed. The problem is that you seem to think that just showing that closing schools helps reduce the spread (obvious truth) is proof-pudding that your stance that schools should have been closed is the correct one but me showing that children's educations being harmed from closed schools (obvious truth) is not proof-pudding that schools should have opened sooner or remained open. Essentially you are saying that schools being closed is the correct and necessary evil and I have to provide the cost-benefit analysis to refute this by showing that children's education was harmed more than the benefit in spread reduction. But if I say the opposite - that schools should have opened sooner and worsening the spread is the necessary evil because the harm to students is too great otherwise and you have to provide the cost-benefit analysis to refute that, then I'm the heretic. At the end of the day we're both guessing and neither of us are providing a cost-benefit analysis. According to Magic Powers source even the people in charge to make these decisions weren't really doing a cost-benefit analysis to make their decisions. The difference is I'm not the one lecturing you to remain neutral while not remaining neutral myself. Simplified for you: + Show Spoiler +
A) Schools being closed reduces the spread
B) Schools being closed harms children's education
DPB: A > B
BJ: No, B > A because X
DPB: X does not prove B > A so next time remain neutral unless you have proper data
BJ: But you didn't provide anything to support A > B other than saying that A is true.
Sorry, that "closing schools" is reducing the spread is NOT an obvious truth. For the flu, the spread has been equal or even worse when closing schools, as the youngsters will meet anyway, and in more fluctuating groups, less regulated. You need to close schools AND make sure they don't have any social life elsewhere either, which is an absolutely awful thing to force upon youngsters, and it is much worse for the ones who struggle already. Then, you need to remember that the goal is really to reduce deaths and hospitalisations, not only a raw number number of cases. Proving that closing schools achieved this goal is not easy, but if you have some studies, bring them on! This was an experiment, not based on science. Remember that there are powerful incentives to justify these decisions, so we might have to wait a bit to get solid unbiased proof. But, I know Norway and Denmark opened their schools late spring 2020, and still had some of the best covid numbers in the world. Yeah but we did destroy their social lives too. There weren’t many play dates happening during the pandemic. That’s why my post introducing the topic was two-fold. Not just that student test scores are way down but also pediatric depression, anxiety, and suicidality is way up. But yes I agree with you that it was an experiment not based on science. Magic Powers source says as much well - the decision to close schools was often not done on a rigorous cost-benefit analysis but more on a gut feel of the people making these decisions. Also just want to remind everyone that in Spring and Summer of 2020 I was posting in real time in this thread about how hospitals across the country were becoming ghost towns. All elective surgeries were being cancelled. People were avoiding the Emergency Room like it was the plague. Hospitals were closing down entire wings and laying off workers because there were no patients. There was definitely plenty of room to ease some restrictions and keeping schools open should have been the obvious choice. Are you trying to play captain hindsight by using data from after the fact to make yourself seem like the smart one for making perfect decisions? You do realize that if decisions changed from when they were made it would have meant that different outcomes would have happened? Hospitals were at their breaking point for supplies and giving them breathing room so people can recover from the hell march and resupply to prepare for the next wave wasn't something that occurred to you being a possibility at all these past two years? BlackJack's description of the cost benefit analysis of school closure is at least exactly the one communicated to us in Sweden by our authorities during the epidemic, i.e.: we don't believe children are spreading the disease to an extent that would justify closing schools; it is not particularly dangerous for the children themselves to get the disease; it could have potentially very harming consequences to stop young children from going to school. All of this has turned out to be true as far as I can tell. I remember thinking at the time that the calls for closing schools was a dangerous mixture of virtue signalling and hysteria, and it seems to have been an accurate impression. This seems to have been true for Sweden. What was true for Sweden wasn't necessarily true for Norway, or Belgium, or the US, or China. That was certainly the messaging we were getting in Canada early on (at least after that first lockdown.) I recall joking with some colleagues that somehow schools were magical places where Covid was not spread... despite kids getting sick all the time from colds and flus. And I suppose, early on that might have been so. It wasn't really until we got to the lesser versions like Omicron that it really started sweeping through our schools. The earliest variants also affected kids much less than later ones. Any measures to "protect" kids against the first strains were unnecessary, and at worst, counterproductive. Delta and Omnicron were different in that regard. I remember how some ultra rare autoimmune syndrome was used to justify closing schools. That is pure fear, not rational thinking. How many times does someone have to tell you that it wasn't just about the kids and that there are adults that go into schools as well to do school related activity? Do we need to explain to you the concept that children interact with nonchildren a lot?
Imo, sacrificing children for adults in that way is morally bankrupt. It is a group which is unable to speak up for itself. Imagine sacrificing adults age 40-60 in any way for any benefit for children? Never going to happen.
Also, children were not main transmitters of the first strain, they were only feared to be, so your entire logic collapses.
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You are sacrificing a slight educational delay for actual human lives.
"Sacrificing children for adults" is an incredibly disingenuous way to describe that decision.
And the logic doesn't collapse, because we are discussing whether a decision was the right decision to make based on the information available at the time. That we know differently (if we even know differently now) doesn't mean it wasn't the right decision to make based on the currently available information.
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On November 04 2022 10:37 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 04:14 BlackJack wrote:On November 04 2022 01:25 Sermokala wrote:On November 03 2022 18:35 BlackJack wrote:On November 03 2022 08:30 Sermokala wrote:On November 03 2022 04:42 BlackJack wrote:On November 03 2022 04:18 Magic Powers wrote:On November 03 2022 03:34 InDaHouse wrote:
People in this fucking thread actually believed you could eradicate a virus from the face of earth with lockdowns and vaccines. Please name those people, because I can't remember a single one. Just use the search function and search for "herd immunity." But I'm sure now we're going to pretend that by herd immunity we meant where everyone catches the disease and then continues to catch it year after year and hundreds continue to die every day even after almost everyone has either been vaccinated or had COVID already. A totally normal application of that term. /sarcasm Bj is now evolving by trying to mix his usual gotcha based argument style with the new captain hindsight style. Clearly bj has never heard about things like chickenpox or measles. You know diseases that spread wildly and require herd immunity to keep at bay. Does anyone think he's going to pull out his few months old idea that making children get vaccines is a monstrous and new concept? You talking about chickenpox and measles and DPB talking about smallpox and polio just helps prove my point that many in this thread thought we could virtually eliminate COVID the way we have other diseases and disproves Magic Power's implication that nobody in this thread believed that. So thanks for that. and just fyi I was also theorizing about herd immunity in early 2020 so I was just as wrong as everyone else and my post didn't imply otherwise. That's just another thing you invented in your head. See the problem is your foaming-at-the-mouth hatred has caused you to be unable to even interpret what I've written correctly. Likewise, your poorly written posts are near impossible for me to decipher. So the obvious solution is to stop shitting up this thread by responding to each other. You're the one constantly shitting up the thread with arguments that contradict yourself. You have a very poor grasp on basic concepts and instead of learning anything new you decide to constantly dig deeper on your ignorance and feelings. No one thinks chickenpox or measles or the flu are eradicated. If we thought that you wouldn't need to get the measles vaccine. You wouldn't need to get the chickenpox vaccine. But you got them anyway and if you'll have kids they'll get them it too. But sorry us for thinking that you can use your brain about why things happen around you. I'm not going to stop disputing someone who puts so much effort into trying to get people killed because they're ignorant and like being ignorant. The obvious solution is for you to take a breath and think about why things happen around you. Yeah I still have no idea what your point is about chickenpox and measles in the context of achieving herd immunity vs COVID. Do you still believe we can achieve herd immunity against COVID and virtually eliminate it from our schools the way we have chicken pox and measles, or...? What? Yes. Thats what people were saying back in 2020 and what they're saying now. There is a large list of things that you get a vaccine for and are mandated to get a vaccine for. I do belive that I can go out on a bar and insist that you received a list of vaccines as a child too. Are you aware why you got them or why vaccine mandates are good?
Ok, well you're wrong. COVID can't be virtually eliminated from schools with vaccine mandates even if "people are saying that" (ok Trump). The reason we know this is an irrational thing to believe is because we already have many real world examples of universities with vaccine mandates and we still see for example Cornell reports more than 900 COVID cases this week despite a 99% vaccination rate among students.
So what we have here is you once again using some very faulty logic to justify covid vaccine mandate for children to attend school. Which is whatever. I don't expect much different. But what I do hope for is that some of the other people in this thread that have the intelligence to know this logic is faulty and who I also know don't support mandating the covid vaccine for children to attend school to speak up.
But as is usual we get *crickets.* Maybe just once someone would like to prove me wrong that this place isn't an echo chamber.
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well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users?
anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me.
its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there.
off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived 
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Last 50 pages is mostly just people debating whether previous actions taken 1-3 years ago were justified.It's all in the rear view mirror now, probably only 1% still masking here.
Still a few ridiculous rules, like needing to wear a mask in the dentist reception but obviously taking the mask off when you step inside the dentist's office and the dentist is working inside your mouth.Queensland just removed all mask requirements so I imagine these holdovers will be gone in other states by year end.
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I don't know how it makes sense to argue that the current mask mandates are ridiculous when the combined effect of all policies has led to a current all-time global low in daily infections (and the longest low stretch in particular in the US). Mask mandates played a very significant part in that and continue to do so.
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On November 04 2022 21:30 Magic Powers wrote:
I don't know how it makes sense to argue that the current mask mandates are ridiculous when the combined effect of all policies has led to a current all-time global low in daily infections (and the longest low stretch in particular in the US). Mask mandates played a very significant part in that and continue to do so.
I could be mistaken, but I think NettleS's issue was specifically within the dentist's office, where the mask would need to be removed during the appointment anyway. I'm not sure if NettleS is generally saying that wearing masks at a store or business is a silly idea if you can keep the mask on throughout your entire errand.
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On November 04 2022 20:20 evilfatsh1t wrote:well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users? anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me. its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there. off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived
On November 04 2022 21:10 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Last 50 pages is mostly just people debating whether previous actions taken 1-3 years ago were justified.It's all in the rear view mirror now, probably only 1% still masking here.
Still a few ridiculous rules, like needing to wear a mask in the dentist reception but obviously taking the mask off when you step inside the dentist's office and the dentist is working inside your mouth.Queensland just removed all mask requirements so I imagine these holdovers will be gone in other states by year end.
Issue with that is that it encourages them more. If more people were arguing back then and/or keep arguing now, we may not be in the situation we are now. Even after being proven wrong on pretty much everything possible they are still doubling down. We are already living in ridiculous times where people not only approve but are also happy about:
Censorship
Repercussions for different views
FDA being basically advertising department for Pfizer
This kind of attitude:
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23028843.covid-scotland-vaccines-ruled-cause-neonatal-deaths-spike/
"Public Health Scotland (PHS) said its consultants had given “careful consideration” to the “potential benefits and harms” of carrying out such as analysis as part of its probe into the tragic deaths of 39 infants, but concluded against doing so because “it was not possible to identify a scenario that would have resulted in a change to public health policy or practice” given that vaccination policy was already “appropriately informed by good-quality population-level evidence and safety data”.
[...}
In a statement, PHS added that there was also a risk that “identifying the vaccination status of the mothers, even at aggregate level, would result in harm to those individuals and others close to them, through actual or perceived judgement of the effects of their personal vaccination decision”.
Furthermore “the outcomes of such analysis, whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence at this critical time”. "
If people ignore it, it will just going to go further downhill.
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Northern Ireland23313 Posts
On November 04 2022 20:20 evilfatsh1t wrote:well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users? anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me. its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there. off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived
Welcome to the club sir
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On November 04 2022 22:35 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 20:20 evilfatsh1t wrote:well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users? anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me. its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there. off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 21:10 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Last 50 pages is mostly just people debating whether previous actions taken 1-3 years ago were justified.It's all in the rear view mirror now, probably only 1% still masking here.
Still a few ridiculous rules, like needing to wear a mask in the dentist reception but obviously taking the mask off when you step inside the dentist's office and the dentist is working inside your mouth.Queensland just removed all mask requirements so I imagine these holdovers will be gone in other states by year end. Issue with that is that it encourages them more. If more people were arguing back then and/or keep arguing now, we may not be in the situation we are now. Even after being proven wrong on pretty much everything possible they are still doubling down. We are already living in ridiculous times where people not only approve but are also happy about: Censorship Repercussions for different views FDA being basically advertising department for Pfizer This kind of attitude: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23028843.covid-scotland-vaccines-ruled-cause-neonatal-deaths-spike/"Public Health Scotland (PHS) said its consultants had given “careful consideration” to the “potential benefits and harms” of carrying out such as analysis as part of its probe into the tragic deaths of 39 infants, but concluded against doing so because “it was not possible to identify a scenario that would have resulted in a change to public health policy or practice” given that vaccination policy was already “appropriately informed by good-quality population-level evidence and safety data”. [...} In a statement, PHS added that there was also a risk that “identifying the vaccination status of the mothers, even at aggregate level, would result in harm to those individuals and others close to them, through actual or perceived judgement of the effects of their personal vaccination decision”. Furthermore “ the outcomes of such analysis, whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence at this critical time”. " If people ignore it, it will just going to go further downhill.
1. The word "censorship" is meaningless without context (social media? at work? against the law? and what's being said that's being censored?).
2. In response to "Repercussions for different views", again, it depends on context. What are the views? If two people had different perspectives that were both evidence-based, that might be a very different situation than, say, Kanye receiving repercussions/censorship for the "different view" that hating on Jews is okay.
3. As far as that article goes, there's no reason to raise any suspicion by speculating about a non-existent correlation between covid vaccines and miscarriages; we know that pregnant women getting vaccinated is a good and safe thing:
1. "Pregnant Women Who Receive COVID-19 Vaccination Pass Protection from the Virus to Their Newborns" https://nyulangone.org/news/pregnant-women-who-receive-covid-19-vaccination-pass-protection-virus-their-newborns
2. "COVID vaccine reduces risk of severe illness in pregnant women, protects newborns" https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/womens-health/covid-19-vaccine-during-pregnancy-protects-newborns
3. "If you’re pregnant, planning a pregnancy or breastfeeding, COVID-19 vaccination is recommended." https://raisingchildren.net.au/guides/coronavirus-covid-19-guide/covid-19-vaccinations-pregnancy-breastfeeding
4. "With the COVID-19 pandemic entering its third year, efforts to mitigate the risk for infection remain vitally important, especially for vulnerable populations. A recent study from Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) showed vaccination during pregnancy resulted in more lasting antibody levels in infants, when compared to babies born to unvaccinated, COVID-infected mothers." https://www.massgeneral.org/news/press-release/study-shows-persistent-antibodies-in-infants-after-covid-19-vaccination-in-pregnancy
5. "Babies Better Protected From COVID if Mother Vaccinated During Pregnancy" https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/968674
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On November 04 2022 11:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 10:37 Sermokala wrote:On November 04 2022 04:14 BlackJack wrote:On November 04 2022 01:25 Sermokala wrote:On November 03 2022 18:35 BlackJack wrote:On November 03 2022 08:30 Sermokala wrote:On November 03 2022 04:42 BlackJack wrote:On November 03 2022 04:18 Magic Powers wrote:On November 03 2022 03:34 InDaHouse wrote:
People in this fucking thread actually believed you could eradicate a virus from the face of earth with lockdowns and vaccines. Please name those people, because I can't remember a single one. Just use the search function and search for "herd immunity." But I'm sure now we're going to pretend that by herd immunity we meant where everyone catches the disease and then continues to catch it year after year and hundreds continue to die every day even after almost everyone has either been vaccinated or had COVID already. A totally normal application of that term. /sarcasm Bj is now evolving by trying to mix his usual gotcha based argument style with the new captain hindsight style. Clearly bj has never heard about things like chickenpox or measles. You know diseases that spread wildly and require herd immunity to keep at bay. Does anyone think he's going to pull out his few months old idea that making children get vaccines is a monstrous and new concept? You talking about chickenpox and measles and DPB talking about smallpox and polio just helps prove my point that many in this thread thought we could virtually eliminate COVID the way we have other diseases and disproves Magic Power's implication that nobody in this thread believed that. So thanks for that. and just fyi I was also theorizing about herd immunity in early 2020 so I was just as wrong as everyone else and my post didn't imply otherwise. That's just another thing you invented in your head. See the problem is your foaming-at-the-mouth hatred has caused you to be unable to even interpret what I've written correctly. Likewise, your poorly written posts are near impossible for me to decipher. So the obvious solution is to stop shitting up this thread by responding to each other. You're the one constantly shitting up the thread with arguments that contradict yourself. You have a very poor grasp on basic concepts and instead of learning anything new you decide to constantly dig deeper on your ignorance and feelings. No one thinks chickenpox or measles or the flu are eradicated. If we thought that you wouldn't need to get the measles vaccine. You wouldn't need to get the chickenpox vaccine. But you got them anyway and if you'll have kids they'll get them it too. But sorry us for thinking that you can use your brain about why things happen around you. I'm not going to stop disputing someone who puts so much effort into trying to get people killed because they're ignorant and like being ignorant. The obvious solution is for you to take a breath and think about why things happen around you. Yeah I still have no idea what your point is about chickenpox and measles in the context of achieving herd immunity vs COVID. Do you still believe we can achieve herd immunity against COVID and virtually eliminate it from our schools the way we have chicken pox and measles, or...? What? Yes. Thats what people were saying back in 2020 and what they're saying now. There is a large list of things that you get a vaccine for and are mandated to get a vaccine for. I do belive that I can go out on a bar and insist that you received a list of vaccines as a child too. Are you aware why you got them or why vaccine mandates are good? Wait do you actually believe COVID can be TOTALLY eliminated with vaccines and it's uselful to do so (by basically forcing people to take the vaccines)?
Again no one but the anti-vax crowd thinks that people are saying that covid will be totally eliminated. And replace covid with a host of other diseases that we've done the same with pretty much without issue and yeah.
On November 04 2022 18:43 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 10:37 Sermokala wrote:On November 04 2022 04:14 BlackJack wrote:On November 04 2022 01:25 Sermokala wrote:On November 03 2022 18:35 BlackJack wrote:On November 03 2022 08:30 Sermokala wrote:On November 03 2022 04:42 BlackJack wrote:On November 03 2022 04:18 Magic Powers wrote:On November 03 2022 03:34 InDaHouse wrote:
People in this fucking thread actually believed you could eradicate a virus from the face of earth with lockdowns and vaccines. Please name those people, because I can't remember a single one. Just use the search function and search for "herd immunity." But I'm sure now we're going to pretend that by herd immunity we meant where everyone catches the disease and then continues to catch it year after year and hundreds continue to die every day even after almost everyone has either been vaccinated or had COVID already. A totally normal application of that term. /sarcasm Bj is now evolving by trying to mix his usual gotcha based argument style with the new captain hindsight style. Clearly bj has never heard about things like chickenpox or measles. You know diseases that spread wildly and require herd immunity to keep at bay. Does anyone think he's going to pull out his few months old idea that making children get vaccines is a monstrous and new concept? You talking about chickenpox and measles and DPB talking about smallpox and polio just helps prove my point that many in this thread thought we could virtually eliminate COVID the way we have other diseases and disproves Magic Power's implication that nobody in this thread believed that. So thanks for that. and just fyi I was also theorizing about herd immunity in early 2020 so I was just as wrong as everyone else and my post didn't imply otherwise. That's just another thing you invented in your head. See the problem is your foaming-at-the-mouth hatred has caused you to be unable to even interpret what I've written correctly. Likewise, your poorly written posts are near impossible for me to decipher. So the obvious solution is to stop shitting up this thread by responding to each other. You're the one constantly shitting up the thread with arguments that contradict yourself. You have a very poor grasp on basic concepts and instead of learning anything new you decide to constantly dig deeper on your ignorance and feelings. No one thinks chickenpox or measles or the flu are eradicated. If we thought that you wouldn't need to get the measles vaccine. You wouldn't need to get the chickenpox vaccine. But you got them anyway and if you'll have kids they'll get them it too. But sorry us for thinking that you can use your brain about why things happen around you. I'm not going to stop disputing someone who puts so much effort into trying to get people killed because they're ignorant and like being ignorant. The obvious solution is for you to take a breath and think about why things happen around you. Yeah I still have no idea what your point is about chickenpox and measles in the context of achieving herd immunity vs COVID. Do you still believe we can achieve herd immunity against COVID and virtually eliminate it from our schools the way we have chicken pox and measles, or...? What? Yes. Thats what people were saying back in 2020 and what they're saying now. There is a large list of things that you get a vaccine for and are mandated to get a vaccine for. I do belive that I can go out on a bar and insist that you received a list of vaccines as a child too. Are you aware why you got them or why vaccine mandates are good? Ok, well you're wrong. COVID can't be virtually eliminated from schools with vaccine mandates even if "people are saying that" (ok Trump). The reason we know this is an irrational thing to believe is because we already have many real world examples of universities with vaccine mandates and we still see for example Cornell reports more than 900 COVID cases this week despite a 99% vaccination rate among students.So what we have here is you once again using some very faulty logic to justify covid vaccine mandate for children to attend school. Which is whatever. I don't expect much different. But what I do hope for is that some of the other people in this thread that have the intelligence to know this logic is faulty and who I also know don't support mandating the covid vaccine for children to attend school to speak up. But as is usual we get *crickets.* Maybe just once someone would like to prove me wrong that this place isn't an echo chamber.
The logic I'm using is the same logic that has been used successfully in other examples. If something has worked in every repeated case its logical to believe that it will work in the next case.
Are you opposed to the measles vaccine and other vaccines that you were given as a child that were mandated and work successfully? Do you understand why you were given those vaccines and why they're mandated for children to get to go to public school?
On November 04 2022 18:02 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 01:27 Sermokala wrote:On November 03 2022 18:43 Slydie wrote:On November 03 2022 09:12 Falling wrote:On November 02 2022 20:22 Mikau313 wrote:On November 02 2022 18:55 Elroi wrote:On October 30 2022 04:39 Sermokala wrote:On October 29 2022 23:37 BlackJack wrote:On October 29 2022 21:43 Slydie wrote:On October 29 2022 02:42 BlackJack wrote:[quote] Oof. Yes keeping schools closed helps reduced the spread. That's an obvious truth, you don't need to provide data on that. Just like keeping schools closed harmed the education and upbringing of children is an obvious truth. They are competing interests/problems with keeping schools open vs closed. The problem is that you seem to think that just showing that closing schools helps reduce the spread (obvious truth) is proof-pudding that your stance that schools should have been closed is the correct one but me showing that children's educations being harmed from closed schools (obvious truth) is not proof-pudding that schools should have opened sooner or remained open. Essentially you are saying that schools being closed is the correct and necessary evil and I have to provide the cost-benefit analysis to refute this by showing that children's education was harmed more than the benefit in spread reduction. But if I say the opposite - that schools should have opened sooner and worsening the spread is the necessary evil because the harm to students is too great otherwise and you have to provide the cost-benefit analysis to refute that, then I'm the heretic. At the end of the day we're both guessing and neither of us are providing a cost-benefit analysis. According to Magic Powers source even the people in charge to make these decisions weren't really doing a cost-benefit analysis to make their decisions. The difference is I'm not the one lecturing you to remain neutral while not remaining neutral myself. Simplified for you: + Show Spoiler +
A) Schools being closed reduces the spread
B) Schools being closed harms children's education
DPB: A > B
BJ: No, B > A because X
DPB: X does not prove B > A so next time remain neutral unless you have proper data
BJ: But you didn't provide anything to support A > B other than saying that A is true.
Sorry, that "closing schools" is reducing the spread is NOT an obvious truth. For the flu, the spread has been equal or even worse when closing schools, as the youngsters will meet anyway, and in more fluctuating groups, less regulated. You need to close schools AND make sure they don't have any social life elsewhere either, which is an absolutely awful thing to force upon youngsters, and it is much worse for the ones who struggle already. Then, you need to remember that the goal is really to reduce deaths and hospitalisations, not only a raw number number of cases. Proving that closing schools achieved this goal is not easy, but if you have some studies, bring them on! This was an experiment, not based on science. Remember that there are powerful incentives to justify these decisions, so we might have to wait a bit to get solid unbiased proof. But, I know Norway and Denmark opened their schools late spring 2020, and still had some of the best covid numbers in the world. Yeah but we did destroy their social lives too. There weren’t many play dates happening during the pandemic. That’s why my post introducing the topic was two-fold. Not just that student test scores are way down but also pediatric depression, anxiety, and suicidality is way up. But yes I agree with you that it was an experiment not based on science. Magic Powers source says as much well - the decision to close schools was often not done on a rigorous cost-benefit analysis but more on a gut feel of the people making these decisions. Also just want to remind everyone that in Spring and Summer of 2020 I was posting in real time in this thread about how hospitals across the country were becoming ghost towns. All elective surgeries were being cancelled. People were avoiding the Emergency Room like it was the plague. Hospitals were closing down entire wings and laying off workers because there were no patients. There was definitely plenty of room to ease some restrictions and keeping schools open should have been the obvious choice. Are you trying to play captain hindsight by using data from after the fact to make yourself seem like the smart one for making perfect decisions? You do realize that if decisions changed from when they were made it would have meant that different outcomes would have happened? Hospitals were at their breaking point for supplies and giving them breathing room so people can recover from the hell march and resupply to prepare for the next wave wasn't something that occurred to you being a possibility at all these past two years? BlackJack's description of the cost benefit analysis of school closure is at least exactly the one communicated to us in Sweden by our authorities during the epidemic, i.e.: we don't believe children are spreading the disease to an extent that would justify closing schools; it is not particularly dangerous for the children themselves to get the disease; it could have potentially very harming consequences to stop young children from going to school. All of this has turned out to be true as far as I can tell. I remember thinking at the time that the calls for closing schools was a dangerous mixture of virtue signalling and hysteria, and it seems to have been an accurate impression. This seems to have been true for Sweden. What was true for Sweden wasn't necessarily true for Norway, or Belgium, or the US, or China. That was certainly the messaging we were getting in Canada early on (at least after that first lockdown.) I recall joking with some colleagues that somehow schools were magical places where Covid was not spread... despite kids getting sick all the time from colds and flus. And I suppose, early on that might have been so. It wasn't really until we got to the lesser versions like Omicron that it really started sweeping through our schools. The earliest variants also affected kids much less than later ones. Any measures to "protect" kids against the first strains were unnecessary, and at worst, counterproductive. Delta and Omnicron were different in that regard. I remember how some ultra rare autoimmune syndrome was used to justify closing schools. That is pure fear, not rational thinking. How many times does someone have to tell you that it wasn't just about the kids and that there are adults that go into schools as well to do school related activity? Do we need to explain to you the concept that children interact with nonchildren a lot? Imo, sacrificing children for adults in that way is morally bankrupt. It is a group which is unable to speak up for itself. Imagine sacrificing adults age 40-60 in any way for any benefit for children? Never going to happen. Also, children were not main transmitters of the first strain, they were only feared to be, so your entire logic collapses.
Do you realize how much of a self own this is? You both try to play captain hindsight and demolish any argument you have for opening schools up earlier. You literally collapse your entire logic and embaress yourself at the same time.
Yes they feared that children would be the main transmitters of the virus for the first strain. Beacuse the science of basic disease transmission told them that. Admiting that they were proven right about following strains on their current strategy you support them continuing on with it anyway?
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On November 04 2022 23:08 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 22:35 Razyda wrote:On November 04 2022 20:20 evilfatsh1t wrote:well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users? anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me. its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there. off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived On November 04 2022 21:10 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Last 50 pages is mostly just people debating whether previous actions taken 1-3 years ago were justified.It's all in the rear view mirror now, probably only 1% still masking here.
Still a few ridiculous rules, like needing to wear a mask in the dentist reception but obviously taking the mask off when you step inside the dentist's office and the dentist is working inside your mouth.Queensland just removed all mask requirements so I imagine these holdovers will be gone in other states by year end. Issue with that is that it encourages them more. If more people were arguing back then and/or keep arguing now, we may not be in the situation we are now. Even after being proven wrong on pretty much everything possible they are still doubling down. We are already living in ridiculous times where people not only approve but are also happy about: Censorship Repercussions for different views FDA being basically advertising department for Pfizer This kind of attitude: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23028843.covid-scotland-vaccines-ruled-cause-neonatal-deaths-spike/"Public Health Scotland (PHS) said its consultants had given “careful consideration” to the “potential benefits and harms” of carrying out such as analysis as part of its probe into the tragic deaths of 39 infants, but concluded against doing so because “it was not possible to identify a scenario that would have resulted in a change to public health policy or practice” given that vaccination policy was already “appropriately informed by good-quality population-level evidence and safety data”. [...} In a statement, PHS added that there was also a risk that “identifying the vaccination status of the mothers, even at aggregate level, would result in harm to those individuals and others close to them, through actual or perceived judgement of the effects of their personal vaccination decision”. Furthermore “ the outcomes of such analysis, whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence at this critical time”. " If people ignore it, it will just going to go further downhill. 1. The word "censorship" is meaningless without context (social media? at work? against the law? and what's being said that's being censored?). 2. In response to "Repercussions for different views", again, it depends on context. What are the views? If two people had different perspectives that were both evidence-based, that might be a very different situation than, say, Kanye receiving repercussions/censorship for the "different view" that hating on Jews is okay. 3. As far as that article goes, there's no reason to raise any suspicion by speculating about a non-existent correlation between covid vaccines and miscarriages; we know that pregnant women getting vaccinated is a good and safe thing: 1. "Pregnant Women Who Receive COVID-19 Vaccination Pass Protection from the Virus to Their Newborns" https://nyulangone.org/news/pregnant-women-who-receive-covid-19-vaccination-pass-protection-virus-their-newborns 2. "COVID vaccine reduces risk of severe illness in pregnant women, protects newborns" https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/womens-health/covid-19-vaccine-during-pregnancy-protects-newborns 3. "If you’re pregnant, planning a pregnancy or breastfeeding, COVID-19 vaccination is recommended." https://raisingchildren.net.au/guides/coronavirus-covid-19-guide/covid-19-vaccinations-pregnancy-breastfeeding 4. "With the COVID-19 pandemic entering its third year, efforts to mitigate the risk for infection remain vitally important, especially for vulnerable populations. A recent study from Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) showed vaccination during pregnancy resulted in more lasting antibody levels in infants, when compared to babies born to unvaccinated, COVID-infected mothers." https://www.massgeneral.org/news/press-release/study-shows-persistent-antibodies-in-infants-after-covid-19-vaccination-in-pregnancy 5. "Babies Better Protected From COVID if Mother Vaccinated During Pregnancy" https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/968674
1 - it actually isnt - censorship is censorship - I previously linked BMJ article how they were censored on Facebook and it wasnt separate accident. It is not like censorship is becoming something good, if it happens to censor people/opinions you disagree with/dont like.
2 - no it doesnt, we not talking about criminal activity, we talking about scientists having different opinions.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11024-022-09479-4
Link to actually quite interesting article regarding first 2 points.
3 - I dont think you understood what is my issue with PHS regarding this article. I am not saying that vaccine is the cause. I am saying that this possibility should be investigated and not discarded beforehand. What should never ever have impact on this decision is this bit:
"the outcomes of such analysis, whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence at this critical time"
So there is "no plausible link", or as you say "non-existent correlation" and yet somehow outcomes of such analysis had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence. That doesnt seem to make sense?
Considering that over 5 billion people had vaccine ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations ) I would say that even slightest health abnormality should be analyzed with this angle in mind.
Also links you provided seem to further prove my point? All those confirm that vaccine taken by pregnant women actually affects the child?
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On November 05 2022 03:28 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 23:08 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2022 22:35 Razyda wrote:On November 04 2022 20:20 evilfatsh1t wrote:well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users? anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me. its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there. off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived On November 04 2022 21:10 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Last 50 pages is mostly just people debating whether previous actions taken 1-3 years ago were justified.It's all in the rear view mirror now, probably only 1% still masking here.
Still a few ridiculous rules, like needing to wear a mask in the dentist reception but obviously taking the mask off when you step inside the dentist's office and the dentist is working inside your mouth.Queensland just removed all mask requirements so I imagine these holdovers will be gone in other states by year end. Issue with that is that it encourages them more. If more people were arguing back then and/or keep arguing now, we may not be in the situation we are now. Even after being proven wrong on pretty much everything possible they are still doubling down. We are already living in ridiculous times where people not only approve but are also happy about: Censorship Repercussions for different views FDA being basically advertising department for Pfizer This kind of attitude: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23028843.covid-scotland-vaccines-ruled-cause-neonatal-deaths-spike/"Public Health Scotland (PHS) said its consultants had given “careful consideration” to the “potential benefits and harms” of carrying out such as analysis as part of its probe into the tragic deaths of 39 infants, but concluded against doing so because “it was not possible to identify a scenario that would have resulted in a change to public health policy or practice” given that vaccination policy was already “appropriately informed by good-quality population-level evidence and safety data”. [...} In a statement, PHS added that there was also a risk that “identifying the vaccination status of the mothers, even at aggregate level, would result in harm to those individuals and others close to them, through actual or perceived judgement of the effects of their personal vaccination decision”. Furthermore “ the outcomes of such analysis, whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence at this critical time”. " If people ignore it, it will just going to go further downhill. 1. The word "censorship" is meaningless without context (social media? at work? against the law? and what's being said that's being censored?). 2. In response to "Repercussions for different views", again, it depends on context. What are the views? If two people had different perspectives that were both evidence-based, that might be a very different situation than, say, Kanye receiving repercussions/censorship for the "different view" that hating on Jews is okay. 3. As far as that article goes, there's no reason to raise any suspicion by speculating about a non-existent correlation between covid vaccines and miscarriages; we know that pregnant women getting vaccinated is a good and safe thing: 1. "Pregnant Women Who Receive COVID-19 Vaccination Pass Protection from the Virus to Their Newborns" https://nyulangone.org/news/pregnant-women-who-receive-covid-19-vaccination-pass-protection-virus-their-newborns 2. "COVID vaccine reduces risk of severe illness in pregnant women, protects newborns" https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/womens-health/covid-19-vaccine-during-pregnancy-protects-newborns 3. "If you’re pregnant, planning a pregnancy or breastfeeding, COVID-19 vaccination is recommended." https://raisingchildren.net.au/guides/coronavirus-covid-19-guide/covid-19-vaccinations-pregnancy-breastfeeding 4. "With the COVID-19 pandemic entering its third year, efforts to mitigate the risk for infection remain vitally important, especially for vulnerable populations. A recent study from Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) showed vaccination during pregnancy resulted in more lasting antibody levels in infants, when compared to babies born to unvaccinated, COVID-infected mothers." https://www.massgeneral.org/news/press-release/study-shows-persistent-antibodies-in-infants-after-covid-19-vaccination-in-pregnancy 5. "Babies Better Protected From COVID if Mother Vaccinated During Pregnancy" https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/968674 1 - it actually isnt - censorship is censorship - I previously linked BMJ article how they were censored on Facebook and it wasnt separate accident. It is not like censorship is becoming something good, if it happens to censor people/opinions you disagree with/dont like. 2 - no it doesnt, we not talking about criminal activity, we talking about scientists having different opinions. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11024-022-09479-4Link to actually quite interesting article regarding first 2 points.
Unfortunately, that article merely lists situations where someone got censored or received repercussions, without actually going into detail about what was said. The article says that Person X's tweet received a warning, for example, without actually saying what the tweet was. That article doesn't mention what was said, nor does it bother to analyze if certain videos or messages were "censored" because it was merely a different of legitimate scientific opinion, or for some other reason (like breaking ToS). If your position is "the context doesn't matter, it's all censorship/consequences so it's all necessarily bad", then we're going to have to fundamentally disagree on whether or not experiencing repercussions can ever be justified.
3 - I dont think you understood what is my issue with PHS regarding this article. I am not saying that vaccine is the cause. I am saying that this possibility should be investigated and not discarded beforehand. What should never ever have impact on this decision is this bit: "the outcomes of such analysis, whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence at this critical time" So there is "no plausible link", or as you say "non-existent correlation" and yet somehow outcomes of such analysis had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence. That doesnt seem to make sense? Considering that over 5 billion people had vaccine ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations ) I would say that even slightest health abnormality should be analyzed with this angle in mind. Also links you provided seem to further prove my point? All those confirm that vaccine taken by pregnant women actually affects the child?
Positively is not the same as negatively. They're opposites. And yes, of course that pointless analysis would harm vaccine confidence; why would pregnant people get vaccinated if they heard that scientists were suddenly wondering if the vaccine is causing miscarriages, despite all of the above resources showing positive effects? That would be the take-away from many people who don't understand correlation vs. causation and who don't realize that doing a study for the millionth time doesn't mean that the public needs to be worried. This has already been researched, in depth, all around the world, and the last thing that was needed during the height of the pandemic was more vaccine hesitancy about its safety.
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On November 05 2022 03:55 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2022 04:26 BlackJack wrote:On November 03 2022 04:12 Gorsameth wrote:On November 03 2022 03:51 BlackJack wrote:On November 02 2022 20:22 Mikau313 wrote:On November 02 2022 18:55 Elroi wrote:On October 30 2022 04:39 Sermokala wrote:On October 29 2022 23:37 BlackJack wrote:On October 29 2022 21:43 Slydie wrote:On October 29 2022 02:42 BlackJack wrote:[quote] Oof. Yes keeping schools closed helps reduced the spread. That's an obvious truth, you don't need to provide data on that. Just like keeping schools closed harmed the education and upbringing of children is an obvious truth. They are competing interests/problems with keeping schools open vs closed. The problem is that you seem to think that just showing that closing schools helps reduce the spread (obvious truth) is proof-pudding that your stance that schools should have been closed is the correct one but me showing that children's educations being harmed from closed schools (obvious truth) is not proof-pudding that schools should have opened sooner or remained open. Essentially you are saying that schools being closed is the correct and necessary evil and I have to provide the cost-benefit analysis to refute this by showing that children's education was harmed more than the benefit in spread reduction. But if I say the opposite - that schools should have opened sooner and worsening the spread is the necessary evil because the harm to students is too great otherwise and you have to provide the cost-benefit analysis to refute that, then I'm the heretic. At the end of the day we're both guessing and neither of us are providing a cost-benefit analysis. According to Magic Powers source even the people in charge to make these decisions weren't really doing a cost-benefit analysis to make their decisions. The difference is I'm not the one lecturing you to remain neutral while not remaining neutral myself. Simplified for you: + Show Spoiler +
A) Schools being closed reduces the spread
B) Schools being closed harms children's education
DPB: A > B
BJ: No, B > A because X
DPB: X does not prove B > A so next time remain neutral unless you have proper data
BJ: But you didn't provide anything to support A > B other than saying that A is true.
Sorry, that "closing schools" is reducing the spread is NOT an obvious truth. For the flu, the spread has been equal or even worse when closing schools, as the youngsters will meet anyway, and in more fluctuating groups, less regulated. You need to close schools AND make sure they don't have any social life elsewhere either, which is an absolutely awful thing to force upon youngsters, and it is much worse for the ones who struggle already. Then, you need to remember that the goal is really to reduce deaths and hospitalisations, not only a raw number number of cases. Proving that closing schools achieved this goal is not easy, but if you have some studies, bring them on! This was an experiment, not based on science. Remember that there are powerful incentives to justify these decisions, so we might have to wait a bit to get solid unbiased proof. But, I know Norway and Denmark opened their schools late spring 2020, and still had some of the best covid numbers in the world. Yeah but we did destroy their social lives too. There weren’t many play dates happening during the pandemic. That’s why my post introducing the topic was two-fold. Not just that student test scores are way down but also pediatric depression, anxiety, and suicidality is way up. But yes I agree with you that it was an experiment not based on science. Magic Powers source says as much well - the decision to close schools was often not done on a rigorous cost-benefit analysis but more on a gut feel of the people making these decisions. Also just want to remind everyone that in Spring and Summer of 2020 I was posting in real time in this thread about how hospitals across the country were becoming ghost towns. All elective surgeries were being cancelled. People were avoiding the Emergency Room like it was the plague. Hospitals were closing down entire wings and laying off workers because there were no patients. There was definitely plenty of room to ease some restrictions and keeping schools open should have been the obvious choice. Are you trying to play captain hindsight by using data from after the fact to make yourself seem like the smart one for making perfect decisions? You do realize that if decisions changed from when they were made it would have meant that different outcomes would have happened? Hospitals were at their breaking point for supplies and giving them breathing room so people can recover from the hell march and resupply to prepare for the next wave wasn't something that occurred to you being a possibility at all these past two years? BlackJack's description of the cost benefit analysis of school closure is at least exactly the one communicated to us in Sweden by our authorities during the epidemic, i.e.: we don't believe children are spreading the disease to an extent that would justify closing schools; it is not particularly dangerous for the children themselves to get the disease; it could have potentially very harming consequences to stop young children from going to school. All of this has turned out to be true as far as I can tell. I remember thinking at the time that the calls for closing schools was a dangerous mixture of virtue signalling and hysteria, and it seems to have been an accurate impression. This seems to have been true for Sweden. What was true for Sweden wasn't necessarily true for Norway, or Belgium, or the US, or China. Sweden was heavily criticized in this thread at the time for their decisions. At least now we can acknowledge that they made the right decisions for their children even if we can't conclude that it could cross over to other countries. But Sweden wasn't the only one heavily criticized for not having enough restrictions. Florida was criticized even more for their fast reopening and their push to get kids back in schools. Two of are largest states were basically on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of their COVID policy and they happen to be the state I'm from and the state I live in now. It's interesting to compare the two: 4th grade test scores for 2022 Reading Florida - T-2nd in country California - T-31st in country Mathematics Florida - 4th in country California - T-37th in country 2022 Q2 GDP growth Florida: +1.6% California: -0.5% Unemployment Florida: 2.5 Ranked 9th California: 3.9 Ranked 37th Although this doesn't necessarily prove that California was able to open back up the way Florida did Florida also has the 13th highest death rate per capita in the US compared to California's 39th. 383 deaths per 100k vs 245. That's 56% more deaths. www.statista.comFunny how that is a statistic your not interested in including. Which is really weird. If you want to talk about difference in response to a pandemic, surely the actual difference in the results of that pandemic matter. As if the inverse is not true for you? I'm sure I've acknowledged Florida having more deaths far more than you've acknowledged any of the data I just cited. I think you should consider talking to any educator about the value of standardized testing in both seeing where kids are at or where they will be. On top of that, when those score are used to "grade teachers" or disperse funding the reliability gets even dramatically worse as the goal becomes scoring high on the tests instead of teachign the children the actual skills. @ DPB am I wrong here or does basically every educator think standardized tests are at best a waste of time and more likely a huge pull down on the education of children? Even Desantis thinks they are a bad idea and measure. I do not think his solution is great, but it goes to the point that no one involved at education looks at standardized test scores and goes "this place is actually doing better than that place". https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/09/18/florida-desantis-standardized-testing-overhaul/
I think I found the site comparing the state-by-state standardized test scores (for 4th grade math) over the past 3 years, and it looks like pretty much every state suffered during covid. Florida and California both decreased a total of 5 points, for example: https://www.chalkbeat.org/2022/10/24/23417139/naep-test-scores-pandemic-school-reopening
(I'm referring to the graph with orange and blue arrows.) The article goes on to say:
"Peggy Carr, head of the U.S. Department of Education center that administers the exams, said, “There is nothing in this data that tells us there is a measurable difference between states and districts based solely on how long schools were closed.” The center did not provide any specific analysis on this issue, though.
A Chalkbeat analysis of the data found mixed evidence. In fourth grade math, states where schools were fully open for longer tended to see smaller declines in scores. In eighth grade math and fourth grade reading there was also a relationship, but it was very modest. In eighth grade reading, there was no correlation at all."
It doesn't look like the data is providing a very strong argument that states closing school for longer necessarily led to a more significant reduction in standardized test scores, when compared to other states reopening quickly. That doesn't necessarily mean that there were no negative impacts to remote learning, of course, and perhaps there are other negative outcomes that are more clearly contrasted between states that closed schools for longer vs. states that reopened more quickly.
Given that public schools have already experienced several weeks of standardized testing during just the first two months of this school year (as usual), I'm not a huge fan of how much instructional time is lost to mandatory standardized assessments. In theory, those tests could be useful, but in practice, there are currently far too many fundamental problems with them, but I don't want to go off on a tangent regarding that topic. Even without looking at standardized test scores, it's definitely clear that students suffered academically during the pandemic.
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On November 04 2022 20:20 evilfatsh1t wrote:well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users? anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me. its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there. off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived
Yeah that’s true for you. I don’t often see you wasting your time posting in this thread like the rest of us. But there are a lot of people that follow this discussion and jump in if I make the slightest slip up like failing to use a qualifier from one post to the next. I have to be careful what I write in every post because people will gladly interpret my posts in the least charitable way possible.
Meanwhile Serm gets to regularly post the most asinine arguments and never provides any links or data to support his arguments. He’s arguing that it’s logical to conclude covid can be eliminated from schools with the COVID vaccine because measles was eliminated from schools with the MMR vaccine. Just completely ignoring the obvious fact that people that get the MMR vaccine are very unlikely to get measles but people that get the COVID vaccine are basically still destined to get COVID.
Just the most mind-numbingly stupid arguments and then has the nerve to insist that “science” is on his side and if you disagree you’re hateful and ignorant and yadda yadda.
But all the defenders of science in this thread are silent because they don’t actually care about people spreading misinformation. They care about tribalism and they are not going to criticize a member of their own tribe.
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Northern Ireland23313 Posts
On November 05 2022 04:48 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2022 20:20 evilfatsh1t wrote:well in the context of politics tl is already becoming more of an echo chamber. isnt controversial political views like the #1 reason for bans for long time users? anyway for what its worth, in the context of this thread, there are several points that i agree with on blackjack. unfortunately for him, i dont have his kind of patience and cannot be fucked engaging in a neverending debate on an issue thats largely behind us already anyway. i dont even care to explain what the points i agreed with were, because that would require me to engage further in discussion. just wanted to point out that there are probably some people here who are like me. its less about being afraid to speak up, and more to do with not wanting to have to deal with people i consider to have a fundamental lack of reading comprehension ability and a lack of understanding of the fact that decisions in the real world involving mass amounts of people require more consideration than "what does this particular statistic suggest we do". reading this thread is honestly tiresome enough, i can only imagine how much worse it would be to have to take an active part. i swear the majority of probably like the last 50 pages of this thread is sermokala vs blackjack with other users chiming in here and there. off topic edit: wow this was a lame 8000th post. ive wanted the archon icon for a long time and then i got it randomly when tl got merged. my archon life has been so short lived Yeah that’s true for you. I don’t often see you wasting your time posting in this thread like the rest of us. But there are a lot of people that follow this discussion and jump in if I make the slightest slip up like failing to use a qualifier from one post to the next. I have to be careful what I write in every post because people will gladly interpret my posts in the least charitable way possible. Meanwhile Serm gets to regularly post the most asinine arguments and never provides any links or data to support his arguments. He’s arguing that it’s logical to conclude covid can be eliminated from schools with the COVID vaccine because measles was eliminated from schools with the MMR vaccine. Just completely ignoring the obvious fact that people that get the MMR vaccine are very unlikely to get measles but people that get the COVID vaccine are basically still destined to get COVID. Just the most mind-numbingly stupid arguments and then has the nerve to insist that “science” is on his side and if you disagree you’re hateful and ignorant and yadda yadda. But all the defenders of science in this thread are silent because they don’t actually care about people spreading misinformation. They care about tribalism and they are not going to criticize a member of their own tribe.
What misinformation, what tribe?
People here seem more hell-bent on snapshotting something and insisting they are right than anything else.
I don’t personally have the factual recall to remember all the pertinent stats and cross reference them with live policies across a 3 year period. Nor the lack of laziness to look it all up
From what I gather some precautions were reasonable, when it became clear vaccines were considerably less effective versus omicron, that required some re-evaluation.
On educational impact, as per mental health impact I have a certain bias, namely that all COVID did was draw up and expand the areas in which existing deficiencies hit, they’re nothing new.
Mental health provision in my domain fucking sucked anyway, the only difference was more people needed it. Likewise children fall through educational cracks, but it was just more visible.
And once COVID has entirely subsided, how many of the cohort who cared about those issues, still will?
That said, least from what I have seen, in some locales schools did stay closed for too long, based on what would be effective practice, so I’m 100% agreed there.
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Notice how bj ignores the question again and insists on acting like it was never asked. The guy just hallucinates arguments and then treats them as reality. He knows he gets put into corners he can't get out of and has to rapidly try to reframe what people are saying to avoid getting exposed.
Instead if making any sort of argument or providing an example they think making statements is somehow credible. Then they just project what they're doing because they know inside that they're wrong that if they say the people they know are smarter than them are doing it others might forget how dumb they are.
Look at the nerve I have useng facts and logic to confront his feelings and ignorance based arguments.
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On November 05 2022 04:48 BlackJack wrote:
Yeah that’s true for you. I don’t often see you wasting your time posting in this thread like the rest of us. But there are a lot of people that follow this discussion and jump in if I make the slightest slip up like failing to use a qualifier from one post to the next. I have to be careful what I write in every post because people will gladly interpret my posts in the least charitable way possible.
Twice within days you misrepresented what I said, and several times what others said, some of it in the least charitable way possible.
Is this you trying to paint yourself like the misunderstood hero of some story?
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On November 05 2022 05:46 Sermokala wrote:
Notice how bj ignores the question again and insists on acting like it was never asked. The guy just hallucinates arguments and then treats them as reality. He knows he gets put into corners he can't get out of and has to rapidly try to reframe what people are saying to avoid getting exposed.
Instead if making any sort of argument or providing an example they think making statements is somehow credible. Then they just project what they're doing because they know inside that they're wrong that if they say the people they know are smarter than them are doing it others might forget how dumb they are.
Look at the nerve I have useng facts and logic to confront his feelings and ignorance based arguments.
NoTiCe HoW Bj iS IgNoRing the Question!!
The same question I have answered many many times...
On August 21 2022 18:32 BlackJack wrote:
At the end of the day we probably have a difference of opinion. I've even said before in this thread that I don't outright oppose all vaccine mandates theoretically. I oppose them for COVID based on the circumstances.
On August 24 2022 13:42 BlackJack wrote:I’ve answered that question many times. Vaccine mandates should be judged on a case by case basis. That’s not my opinion that’s just how it works. Why do you suppose schools mandate MMR vaccines and not flu vaccines? + Show Spoiler + Do you just think that the people making these decisions are just flu anti-vaxxers? Since you think the only thing that matters is if vaccines do more good than harm and otherwise there is no moral argument against vaccine mandates does that mean you also support vaccine mandates for flu as well? Or do you just not give a shit about the people that die of the flu?
Or maybe your answer is something like “personally I draw the line just before thinking we need to mandate the flu vaccine for everyone” and if that’s your answer you should read it over and over and over until you realize that that’s an acceptable answer
Edit: also in before the people that are incapable of understanding nuanced perspectives come in to post “OMG BJ is comparing COVID to the flu! What a typical anti-vaxxer!!”
Notice how even when answering your questions I'm having to explain to you that I've answer that question many times before?
People are even having to explain this to you:
On August 24 2022 10:10 evilfatsh1t wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2022 10:03 Sermokala wrote:On August 24 2022 05:28 BlackJack wrote:On August 24 2022 03:03 Sermokala wrote:On August 23 2022 14:12 BlackJack wrote:On August 23 2022 09:20 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 23 2022 07:22 BlackJack wrote:On August 23 2022 07:06 Magic Powers wrote:
"after" =/= "because of"
I'm done with your lies, and I'm reinstating my policy. Not posting anything here over the next week or two either. hahah "after" is an even more broad term than "because of" which makes your claim even more untrue. Pretty sure that literally everyone that was admitted "because of" vaccine-induced myocarditis contracted the myocarditis "after" vaccination. That was a very poor attempt at trying to use semantics to obfuscate that for a full year you've been the one spreading misinformation that vaccines have "zero risks" and that nobody has been hospitalized for myocarditis after vaccination and for a full year I've been the one correcting the record. I'm not taking any sides here, but a point of clarification: he wasn't switching from "because of" to simply "after". He said "as a result of", aka "because of", aka "causation", and I'm pretty sure he was saying that your source merely pointed out that myocarditis happened sometime after the vaccine (correlation?), but that there's insufficient evidence for that example to meet the burden of "because of" / "as a result of" / "causation". I think that was his issue with the source you responded with (only correlation, not causation). It’s still blatant misinformation. The CDC recognizes vaccine induced myocarditis is real. The WHO recognizes vaccine induced myocarditis is real. It’s just blatantly false to say that it’s not a real thing or that nobody has been hospitalized for it. It’s a shame that I’m literally the only one in this thread that will call out this untruth. Maybe if there was a couple other posters that had some loyalty to the truth I wouldn’t have to take all the heat. The truth is that its a result of covid. The truth is that there are many less cases of it with the vaccine than without it. The truth is that its already known and isn't an issue for rational free thinking individuals. But the real truth that you refuse to answer is why you think its the answer to why people shouldn't get vaccinated. Why should I keep talking to you? You’re still asking me why I think people shouldn’t get vaccinated? Liquid’Drone: bj’s position is this BJ: yeah that’s my position DPB: bjs position is this Bj: yeah that’s my position Sermokala: no that’s not his position. He thinks people shouldn’t get vaccinated Do you have any idea how obnoxious that is? To tell someone that is saying “this is what I believe” “no, that’s not what you believe. You actually believe this.” Which is whatever. I’ve been dealing with that for a long time in this thread so I’m used to ignoring it by now. I’m just telling you this in case this is something you do in real life because you will lose a lot of relationships if you can’t accept what someone is telling you at face value. Because you repeatedly refuse to answer the basic question I keep asking you. You keep refusing to address the most simple points about your position in a constant state of trying to achieve gotchas that get dismissed by everyone. You constantly lie and bring up things you show you know is a lie. You keep spreading anti vax misinformation and except people to never question or respond to you. When confronted you ignore what people are saying and insist that you're somehow being attacked because you're somehow the only one that knows the truth. You keep refusing to answer even the most basic questions that people ask you with the blind resistance of someone who is afraid to question anything that they're saying. So I will constantly ask you the same basic question you keep refusing to answer. Why do you think people shouldn't be mandated to get the vaccine, when we have a list of other mandates about basic operations in the country that are no different from it. hes already answered that question. other posters have even pointed out what his position is in relation to your question. you can disagree with him but to suggest that he hasnt responded at all to your points just shows youre not reading.
But here we are again with "Hey guys!! BJ is IgNoRing My QueSTions!! He CaN'T AnswEr wHy he oPPoseS CoVID mAnDates BuT nOt MeaSLES ManDAtes!!" Although you're technically correct right now: I am ignoring the same questions I've answered multiple times because I have no interest in answering them again only to have to do it again in 3 weeks.
In fairness, maybe you have the memory of a tadpole or maybe you have some kind of mental illness but I don't think it excuses this kind of antagonization.
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