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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. |
Re: Crimean referendum, there were multiple independent polls conducted by Western organizations that concluded that by and large, majority of Crimean population did in fact prefer to be part of Russia back in 2014-15.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum#Post-referendum_polls
The referendum was kinda forced without a doubt, but it's silly to deny that people who actually live(d) in Crimea were okay with the result. I mean, Crimea wanted to join Russia ever since the dissolution of the Union, it's well documented and to argue otherwise is some serious revisionism.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters.
Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that.
As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large.
More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years.
https://t.me/milinfolive/91781
Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now.
Update: seems it's this modification they would be upped to:
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United States41470 Posts
On October 12 2022 18:56 a_ch wrote:
There are plenty of videos of mass celebrations on that day in Sevastopol. If that's not a good indicator of a strong public opinion on the matter, I don't know what is.
A free and fair election with closed ballots and free media. Looking at a YouTube video is not the right way to judge public opinion. Based on YouTube videos Kanye won the 2020 US election.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen.
I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply.
If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendum
And about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum.
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United States41117 Posts
The Netherlands to send anti-aircraft defenses/missiles to Ukraine.
Ukraine will receive air defense missiles from the Netherlands, worth 15 million euros. Defense Minister Ollongren announced this today at the start of the NATO meeting in Brussels.
The Netherlands is also examining whether it can contribute to winter equipment for Ukrainian soldiers. The minister did not provide further details about the material support.
Other countries also announced today that they will send more equipment to Ukraine. For example, the German Defense Minister has promised more armored howitzers. She also announced that Germany has handed over the first of four anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine.
Source
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf
Answering your question:
Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%.
Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53%
Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56%
Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region.
Regarding the polls in question - keep in mind that there was a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2010-2014. So of course population of Crimea felt themselves better from 2009 to 2013. Then the Euromaidan happened and part of the ruling coalition became people who said stuff like this even back in 1993:
+ Show Spoiler +
"Крым будет украинским или безлюдным - Krym budet ukrainskim ili bezlyudnim - Crimea would be either Ukrainian or deserted". So you may understand their sentiment.
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Sad to see this forum ruined by these fucking fascists trolls.
User was warned for this post
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On October 12 2022 21:04 Velr wrote:
I personally don't see an issue with transparent voting boxes (if your vote is sealed in another way)... I wonder more as to why there are 4 and why the boxes are numbered?
Different countries do this stuff different but having them basically at gunpoint is a big nono for obvious reasons.
Yeah, i misunderstood and assumed that what was transparent is the voting booth, not the box you throw ballots in.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 12 2022 23:43 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Interesting. So based on that, and Putin's popularity at home, what do you think are the chances that a region in a different country would vote to join (not for independence) at the 96% clip? And do you think and invading army would have any influence?
As I said before - particularly in Crimea at that situation I believe that great majority would be for it (though maybe not 96%, but I would safely bet on 80+%). The question is not about popularity of Putin here, the question Crimeans had is either to be Russians (not as a citizens of Russia I mean, but as ethnic Russians with the language, culture etc. that they had before) or not.
Not the case with current Kherson and Zaporozhie of course, but I believe we have discussed this already few pages back.
As for the influence of the Russian military - they made such a referendum possible at all, yes (Ukraine itself would never allow it, just on premise of being anti-constitutional). But they were not forcing people to stay in Crimea or vote in a certain way, at least that what I know from the people who live there.
Case of 36th Coastal Defence Brigade of AFU speaks a lot - of 1200 servicemen and officers 700 joined the Russian Army (forming 126th Coastal Defence Brigade), 300 quit service and only 200 left to continue serving the Ukraine. They formed the base for the 36th Marine Brigade, that eventurally ended up in Mariupol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/126th_Coastal_Defence_Brigade
So nobody was forcing them to anything, every soldier and officer did what they did on their own volition.
Also to understand the complexity of relations between Russia, Ukraine and their peoples:
Here is the guy from the video I've posted above, Dmitro Korchinsky, who was leading the most radical part of UNA-UNSO (Ukraine National Assembly-Ukraine National Self-Defence) nationalist organisation, threatening Crimeans in 1993 and fighting in Transistria, Abkhazia and Chechnya against Russians (Chechnya) and rebels (in Transistria and Abkhazia) - sitting together with Aleksandr Dugin, whom we actively discussed before as Putin's main ideologist, and, suddenly - Aleksei Arestovich, who is currently an advisor to Zelensky and one of the most popular Ukrainian personas. And they sit together to work to prevent "orange revolutions" (appellative that appeared after 2004 Maidan in Ukraine) and US expansion intro Eurasia.
http://evrazia.org/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2242
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On October 13 2022 00:47 JimmiC wrote:
A democracy is not just voting for things. Fairness is paramount.
Well, US is a bad example of that to be honest. There are massive campaigns and campaign budgets pay a huge role in the results from what I've seen. In Poland we have special limits on how (and from where) a party can get its campaign funding (based off of minimal wage), how it can spend it etc. There's also the idea of pre-election silence, where no campaign ads may be played in the media and all campaign posters, billboards etc. have to be removed prior to the voting process. Also, all of the funding and campaign expenses are public information.
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On October 13 2022 00:47 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2022 00:05 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 23:43 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Interesting. So based on that, and Putin's popularity at home, what do you think are the chances that a region in a different country would vote to join (not for independence) at the 96% clip? And do you think and invading army would have any influence? As I said before - particularly in Crimea at that situation I believe that great majority would be for it (though maybe not 96%, but I would safely bet on 80+%). The question is not about popularity of Putin here, the question Crimeans had is either to be Russians (not as a citizens of Russia I mean, but as ethnic Russians with the language, culture etc. that they had before) or not. Not the case with current Kherson and Zaporozhie of course, but I believe we have discussed this already few pages back. As for the influence of the Russian military - they made such a referendum possible at all, yes (Ukraine itself would never allow it, just on premise of being anti-constitutional). But they were not forcing people to stay in Crimea or vote in a certain way, at least that what I know from the people who live there. Case of 36th Coastal Defence Brigade of AFU speaks a lot - of 1200 servicemen and officers 700 joined the Russian Army (forming 126th Coastal Defence Brigade), 300 quit service and only 200 left to continue serving the Ukraine. They formed the base for the 36th Marine Brigade, that eventurally ended up in Mariupol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/126th_Coastal_Defence_BrigadeSo nobody was forcing them to anything, every soldier and officer did what they did on their own volition. Also to understand the complexity of relations between Russia, Ukraine and their peoples: Here is the guy from the video I've posted above, Dmitro Korchinsky, who was leading the most radical part of UNA-UNSO (Ukraine National Assembly-Ukraine National Self-Defence) nationalist organisation, threatening Crimeans in 1993 and fighting in Transistria, Abkhazia and Chechnya against Russians (Chechnya) and rebels (in Transistria and Abkhazia) - sitting together with Aleksandr Dugin, whom we actively discussed before as Putin's main ideologist, and, suddenly - Aleksei Arestovich, who is currently an advisor to Zelensky and one of the most popular Ukrainian personas. And they sit together to work to prevent "orange revolutions" (appellative that appeared after 2004 Maidan in Ukraine) and US expansion intro Eurasia. http://evrazia.org/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2242 I'm not going to claim to understand it even close to the level you do. and I will take the time to go through your sources because you consistently post interesting things from a different perspective. But what I want you to think about it why lie if it would be a legitimate 80%? That is still a massive victory and would be far more believable. People who cheat in sports always say they still would have won, or everyone else is cheating or that is the only time they cheated. We know those all to be false. If you know they are cheating that 15% or whatever, you need to critically think that they are doing it a lot more than that, in a lot of different places. There is no risk for Putin and the ruling class (or however you want to classify those in power in Russia and satellites) because there is no consequences and no one is actually checking. All those less then 96% numbers you gave, what is the fudge factor there? You think there no cheating in those ones many of them likely would have different results, not all but even you would likely agree some. This is why when it comes to cheating there can not be, this much is OK. When cheating is found you throw out the whole results, you do it again and you remove the cheaters. No person living in a functional democracy should be OK with cheating in elections. Nixon was removed even though most feel he would have won without the cheating. This is why so many outside observers are so concerned by Trumps continual false claims. Because when enough people do not trust the process, the process does not matter and the democracy does not exist. A democracy is not just voting for things. Fairness is paramount.
Farcical referendums are self-selective, because you feel that by participating you legitimize them. So you get results comically close to 100% not necessarily by fudging the count as by making anyone but yes voters have no incentive to participate. And of course there's also population displacement and a whole slew of other issues.
The only statistically useful polls on Crimea would have had to come after the central government change but before any foreign occupation. Russia did not allow that time window to exist. Ardias is arguing that Ukraine swapping a pro-Russian government for a pro-EU government constituted such a humanitarian emergency that Russia had to act then and there, because of a.. erm.. quote from 1992 from a politician in the vein of and even less relevancy than Zhirinovsky.
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On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Regarding the polls in question - keep in mind that there was a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2010-2014. So of course population of Crimea felt themselves better from 2009 to 2013. Then the Euromaidan happened and part of the ruling coalition became people who said stuff like this even back in 1993: + Show Spoiler +https://youtu.be/K6lO0uIU0Po "Крым будет украинским или безлюдным - Krym budet ukrainskim ili bezlyudnim - Crimea would be either Ukrainian or deserted". So you may understand their sentiment.
Sure and how many times Garry Kasparov was allowed to be a candidate. How many times Navalny... How many were murdered... You do not need to rig everything, but it sure helps getting high scores.
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Not to derail the current discussion about the obviously rigged 2014 election, but I can't let the disinformation about Russia's poverty rate stand. I know for a fact that far too many Russian people live in bad material conditions, and I can fully support this claim. The reality is likely much worse than what is being admitted publicly.
"This brief outline of the data on poverty in Russia shows that every eighth (official poverty line) to every third (sociological estimate) Russian is considered to be poor, and according to deprivation surveys, many more people are far from a standard of living that they would perceive as desirable."
"The OECD poverty rate for Russia is at the lower end of this spectrum, which defines the bare minimum for continued existence – in fact, in 2016, it was even slightly below the official Russian poverty threshold."
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1468018121996075
Interesting discrepancy.
Of course this manipulation of numbers occurs in the USA, too. However, a very different reality is revealed there. The official poverty rate was 11.8% in 2018, when in reality it was probably 17.8% in 2017. The self-reported numbers have ranged from 13% to a rare 24% (a sudden spike during the pandemic in 2020) between 2014 and and 2021.
For Russia, the pandemic has likely made things even worse because they already started from a worse position.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/sheddataviz/worseoff.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/09/16/official-us-poverty-rate-is-based-hopelessly-out-of-date-metric/
In contrast to that, in Russia the surveyed poverty rate goes as high as 29.6% - and that number was reported in 2019 by Rosstat, which by that time was government-controlled.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1468018121996075#:~:text=However, when self-assessments,,Russia appears much more serious.&text=high as 29.6%).
To no one's surprise, the linked webpage showing these numbers is unavailable. Which other links are also no longer available? The ones where these quotes come from:
"How poor is Russia? According to Rosstat, 18.1 million Russians or 12.3% of the population were living in poverty in 2019. That at least is the national average, but the poverty level varies widely across the 85 federal subjects – between 5.6% and 34.7%."
"In 2021, the country’s monthly subsistence minimum is set at 11,653 roubles (approximately US$157 as of 1 January 2021)."
"Taking this subjective subsistence minimum as the baseline, almost 40% of all people in Russia lived in poverty in 2018"
And the information from the available sites is hardly any less damning.
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Ukrainian Ministry of Defense says Torske and Terny are under Ukrainian control. This would be a very significant reduction in Russia's recently claimed advances.
Edit: Russian bombings of civilian infrastructure far far removed from the front seem to continue.
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EPT
