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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. |
Re: Poverty rates in Russia -- it's pretty much impossible to get any accurate numbers there because the shadow economy is incredibly prevalent. It's a poorer country than most European nations -- but not overwhelmingly so, especially if compared to less successful places like, say, Greece, Portugal, or the Balkans. Russia's PPP adjusted GDP per capita is around 30k USD on paper, for comparison Poland and Portugal are both between 35k and 40k depending on which methodology is used. Lower taxes and the above-mentioned shadow economy likely makes up for most if not all of that gap. Meanwhile Ukraine's PPP adjusted GDP per capita didn't even crack 15k USD before the war started.
Re: did Crimea want to join Russia -- it's a lot more complicated than 'bad Russia forced them at gunpoint.' Crimea is largely populated by Russians, they considered themselves to be on 'Russia's side' before and during the maidan, and they are strongly opposed to all the 'Ukrainization laws' that were happening. Good read with some important numbers on the subject:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/06/do-crimeans-actually-want-to-join-russia/
Regardless, there were multiple independent polls carried out by Western agencies, including US government, that have all concluded that Crimeans prefer to be in Russia following the 2014 occupation. You can certainly argue that their opinions aren't important and that occupation was illegal anyway, but the endless repetition of 'its all fake the ruzzkies staged it Crimeans love Ukraine!' is tedious and not grounded in reality at all.
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On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Regarding the polls in question - keep in mind that there was a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2010-2014. So of course population of Crimea felt themselves better from 2009 to 2013. Then the Euromaidan happened and part of the ruling coalition became people who said stuff like this even back in 1993: + Show Spoiler +"Крым будет украинским или безлюдным - Krym budet ukrainskim ili bezlyudnim - Crimea would be either Ukrainian or deserted". So you may understand their sentiment.
Funny that you bring up clearly rigged elections. lol
http://trv-science.ru/2009/10/statisticheskoe-issledovanie-rezultatov-rossijskix-vyborov-2007-2009-gg/
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.0741.pdf
https://www.intellinews.com/statistical-study-shows-half-the-votes-in-duma-election-were-probably-fake-221402/
There's more of that but I can't be arsed.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 13 2022 04:12 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Regarding the polls in question - keep in mind that there was a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2010-2014. So of course population of Crimea felt themselves better from 2009 to 2013. Then the Euromaidan happened and part of the ruling coalition became people who said stuff like this even back in 1993: + Show Spoiler +https://youtu.be/K6lO0uIU0Po "Крым будет украинским или безлюдным - Krym budet ukrainskim ili bezlyudnim - Crimea would be either Ukrainian or deserted". So you may understand their sentiment. Funny that you bring up clearly rigged elections. lol
JimmiC asked me for the examples of the results of elections in Russia in the past 10 years, and if they were about 90+% for the necessary candidate or not. I gave him results he asked for. What's your point?
On October 13 2022 01:48 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Regarding the polls in question - keep in mind that there was a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2010-2014. So of course population of Crimea felt themselves better from 2009 to 2013. Then the Euromaidan happened and part of the ruling coalition became people who said stuff like this even back in 1993: + Show Spoiler +https://youtu.be/K6lO0uIU0Po "Крым будет украинским или безлюдным - Krym budet ukrainskim ili bezlyudnim - Crimea would be either Ukrainian or deserted". So you may understand their sentiment. Sure and how many times Garry Kasparov was allowed to be a candidate. How many times Navalny... How many were murdered... You do not need to rig everything, but it sure helps getting high scores.
Navalny was running for the mayor of Moscow in 2013, where he finished second with 27,4%. He was denied the participation in presidential election 2018 due to the criminal case opened about him for financial fraud. Of course many consider this case politically motivated, but according to the Russian volunteer in LPR, Andrey Morozov aka Murz (whom I posted here in summer after info from his blog about the destruction of Russian 35th Combined Arms Army was posted by ISW) it could have some actual grounds. Link on his blog about that below
https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2154357.html
Murz personally knew Navalny since they were both in the Moscow political movements of the 00-s, but Murz was underground national-communist, while Navalny was mainstream liberal. I'll just quote a main point from Murz's post:
+ Show Spoiler +"To get a situation in which the masters of the discourse were forced to push Navalny out of the shadows under the spotlights, so to speak, in the role of a new "young promising leader" - it was a dream, it was a "shot in a million", for the simple reason that Navalny was not hereditary liberal. And the “self-made man”, rising “from scratch”, was very uncomfortable to be in the company of the likes of Maria Gaidar and Ksenia Sobchak, not being able to have the same high life as them.
And Navalny was doomed to violate the first commandment of the political movement in the Russian Federation - if you want to engage in some kind of politics, except for United Russia, do not do business, and even more so do not participate in muddy schemes with "layer companies" that sell your political connections. Alexey painfully wanted to have money on a par with the “golden youth” around him, and having drowned, well, or drowned, their political careers, he began not only to make his own, but also to ensure the ease of being.
“Yves Rocher”, “Kirovles” and Belykh ... then everyone knows everything. “Kirovles” is dragging behind the uncompromising exposer of corruption in the minds of those very “inhabitants” whom he was supposed to charm. And if a hereditary liberal, albeit dumber, would fit into this niche, there would simply be no reason to jail him “not for politics”.
I know less about Kasparov (his main activities were when I was still too young), probably would need to read up on him more. I do agree on main point though, in Russia power struggle happens behind close doors much more than it happens on voting points.
@Magic Powers - how did we come from comparing poverty rates in Russia and Ukraine to the assumption that there is no poor people in Russia?
@Dan HH - my point about intervention was that if Ukraine had the complete possession of the Crimea and Russia would have not intervened, nobody there would allow such referendum to even start. The quote given was underlining the other point, about why so many people in Crimea supported Russia even according to the Western polls.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
Double post, will try to fill with something useful
Putin announced construction of 2nd gas pipe to China, "Strength of Siberia-2"
https://tass.ru/ekonomika/16029369
First one was built in 5 years, from 2014 to 2019.
Torskoe and Terny are indeed not under Russian control, there seem to be action around these settlements. Wagner is slowly grinding forward on the southern and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
Russian OSINT channels reports that the most efficient way to take down UA electrical grid would be attacks on the 750kw transformer stations, which would greatly reduce the overall grid output. I wonder if our MoD understands this, because if they really wanted to put down UA electricity for good without causing any harm to the powerplants themselves (I mean nuclear ones) - this would be the most important target.
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Navalny was running for the mayor of Moscow in 2013, where he finished second with 27,4%. He was denied the participation in presidential election 2018 due to the criminal case opened about him for financial fraud. Of course many consider this case politically motivated, but according to the Russian volunteer in LPR, Andrey Morozov aka Murz (...) it could have some actual grounds.
Why are you even bringing this up? Putin's government constantly breaks the rules to stay in power. If you're hosting a game and you keep rigging the results in your favor, it's ridiculous to expect the others to play by the rules you're blatantly breaking every day.
Why don't you bring up Nemtsov's unpaid traffic tickets or Politkovskaya's typo in some online dicussion too, that would totally show they were criminals rightfully denied the right to exist.
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The discussion of whether Crimeans wanted to join Russia or not is missing a few important points.
1) The vote was illegal under Ukrainian law.
2) There was no option offered to remain under Kyiv rule. The second option on the ballot was to restore the 1992 constitution, under which Crimea would be a Republic with significant autonomy. There was absolutely no legal basis for that, among other reasons because the constitution during that time was constantly being rewritten, and Putin chose an arbitrary point in time to return to - but not so arbitrary from his point of view, because, for one, it was undesirable for anyone wanting to remain under Kyiv rule, and it was not clearly stated what that option would entail. But most importantly, when put into the context of Russian occupation during this sham referendum, you may understand why many Crimeans didn't exactly have a strong desire to anger Putin. You can even see this right now in Ukraine with people in recently liberated areas abstaining from criticizing Russia and instead talking of "tragedies" and "unfortunate events", not because they likey likey Russia, but because they're afraid that the Russian troops might return any moment and punish them. They've seen what the Russian troops do to people. It was the same fear for Crimeans in 2014.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/03/18/five-years-after-crimeas-illegal-annexation-the-issue-is-no-closer-to-resolution/
And these are just two of a list of points that made the referendum illegitimate. Other points are: no independent observers present; armed guards present at polling stations; turnout under question; result under question; UN terming the referendum invalid.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 13 2022 05:04 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +Navalny was running for the mayor of Moscow in 2013, where he finished second with 27,4%. He was denied the participation in presidential election 2018 due to the criminal case opened about him for financial fraud. Of course many consider this case politically motivated, but according to the Russian volunteer in LPR, Andrey Morozov aka Murz (...) it could have some actual grounds. Why are you even bringing this up? Putin's government constantly breaks the rules to stay in power. If you're hosting a game and you keep rigging the results in your favor, it's ridiculous to expect the others to play by the rules you're blatantly breaking every day. Why don't you bring up Nemtsov's unpaid traffic tickets or Politkovskaya's typo in some online dicussion too, that would totally show they were criminals rightfully denied the right to exist.
Because 0x64 was asking "how many times Navalny was denied participation in elections". I answered how many plus added some info from the person who knew Navalny personally about the case in question. Did you actually read my post till the end?
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@Ardias
He asked how many legitimate elections in Russia had such high support for Putin. You gave him examples of blatantly rigged elections.
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Russian Federation240 Posts
On October 13 2022 04:12 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Regarding the polls in question - keep in mind that there was a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2010-2014. So of course population of Crimea felt themselves better from 2009 to 2013. Then the Euromaidan happened and part of the ruling coalition became people who said stuff like this even back in 1993: + Show Spoiler +https://youtu.be/K6lO0uIU0Po "Крым будет украинским или безлюдным - Krym budet ukrainskim ili bezlyudnim - Crimea would be either Ukrainian or deserted". So you may understand their sentiment. Funny that you bring up clearly rigged elections. lol http://trv-science.ru/2009/10/statisticheskoe-issledovanie-rezultatov-rossijskix-vyborov-2007-2009-gg/https://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.0741.pdfhttps://www.intellinews.com/statistical-study-shows-half-the-votes-in-duma-election-were-probably-fake-221402/There's more of that but I can't be arsed.
-actually the guy you brought here, Sergei Shpil'kin, had been caught on academic dishonesty. Here is a discussion of Shpilkin's analysis of Belorussian elections in 2020 by one of Russian top academic statistician, if you're interested: https://vk.com/avshklyaev?w=wall821751_5056/all
Briefly, Shklyaev concludes that the paper is full of blunders, so the professional qualities of the author are questioned.
I wouldn't say that Russian elections are particularly honest, rather the opposite imho; but the public PR-ing around this topic clearly also have their own agenda and cannot be trusted per se
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On October 13 2022 04:45 Ardias wrote:
@Magic Powers - how did we come from comparing poverty rates in Russia and Ukraine to the assumption that there is no poor people in Russia?
Did you not pay attention? The Russian people are much poorer than people in other countries. It's more than just a huge wealth gap, it's about people having to make a choice between food - not just healthy food, but any food - on the table or the dentist's bill. It's about people having to live with rats biting their feet at night. Such living standards are exceedingly rare in countries like the US, but in Russia you can find it in many places.
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On October 13 2022 05:16 a_ch wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2022 04:12 maybenexttime wrote:On October 12 2022 23:38 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 23:08 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 22:37 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 22:10 JimmiC wrote:On October 12 2022 21:46 Ardias wrote:On October 12 2022 21:17 Silvanel wrote:
Well, I dont think there is anything wrong per se with transparent ballot boxes. You can just fold Your voting card in two so noone sees how You voted. I have seen people claim that in non-transparent boxes, someone (from commision) can place filled ballots on bottom and influance election that way.
Regarding the numbered ballot boxes, I can imagine two situations:
-Several voting districts voting in same physical place and each ballot box is for different district
-Several elections being held at the same time (local and national for example) and each ballot box is for different election
Four seems like a big number though and makes errors likely in case You that number matters. Basically that was the reason for them to be transparent in first place. When it's filled with hundreds and thousands of ballots it's literally impossible to recognize who exactly voted how, not to mention that ballots are not exactly sticking to the walls of the box. Plus, as you've said, you can just fold the ballot. Voting cabins themselves are covered, with some kind of non-transparent curtains usually, at least here it was like that. As for the number of boxes - depending on the density of population in the area and availability of the space for the election comissions they can cramp a bit. Memory may serve me wrong, but on the last elections I've attended (presidential ones in 2018) there were two such boxes, election itself being held in the hall of local arts college, which was quite large. More on the topic - Russia have launched full-scale modernization of old T-62 tanks, bringing them closer to modern standards, with new optics, including thermals, and increased overall protection, mainly with ERA. 103-rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita recieved a massive order on modernization of 800 T-62 in a span of 3 years. https://t.me/milinfolive/91781Though they should also work on new comms for them, old ones were pretty bad, and rotted down anyway by now. This is a over simplification but a pretty easy way to tell if an election is rigged is the outcome. People do not agree to major (let alone minor things) at 90+% rates. There is always multiple sides, marketing on both sides and even many homes get split on who votes for what. If you look at any free and fair election the winning side usually has 50 some percent. The biggest landslide in US history is like 61%. Dictatorships on the other hand continually get well over 90% even right up until there collapse. Seeing high %'s (like 96%) does not mean everyone wants it, it means it was not actually a free and fair election. Brexit was no where close to that (52%), When Quebec had their vote it was 51% to stay in Canada. Votes like the ones you have do not happen. And it is not like well its 96 so even if they fudged it it must be good. You only fudge it if its bad. But on top of that it just gives no information without an invading army maybe it would have been 55% to join Russia, maybe it would have 45% maybe 12. No one knows because Putin did not let it happen and never lets it happen. I'm not sure if you were replying to me, since I've talked about transparent boxes themselves, and not Crimean elections, but I'll reply. If in democracy people can't achieve 90+% voting results then Kosovo is a dictatorship? They seemed to agree on basically 100% rate, yet these results were later recognized by US and other Western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Kosovan_independence_referendumAnd about real opinions - Salazarz has posted the results of the Western polls in Crimea above. They don't seem to differ a lot from the results of the referendum. There are exceptions to every rule. The people in Kosovo were being mistreated to an extreme degree eventually to the point of genocide. There were many soviet states who were mistreated in similar ways likely would have voted in similar %'s to get out, but were never given the chance. How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power? Everyone just agrees on everything? Here is some polling before 2014, it is fairly pro Russia, but the Russian support is also dropping quite rapidly. Not surprising since it is only after they got out from under a non democratic system. Likely one of the reasons the Russians invaded is this dropping support. But then, bang shockingly once the army is in there it jumps way up to almost 100%? Come on man. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf Answering your question: Parliament elections 2011 - United Russia (ruling party) 49.32%, 2016 - United Russia 54.20%, 2021 - United Russia 49.82%. Presidential elections 2012 - Putin 64.35%, 2018 - Putin 77.53% Referendum on 2020 Constitution amendments - 78.56% Most of the governors are from United Russia though, percentages vary from region to region. Regarding the polls in question - keep in mind that there was a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2010-2014. So of course population of Crimea felt themselves better from 2009 to 2013. Then the Euromaidan happened and part of the ruling coalition became people who said stuff like this even back in 1993: + Show Spoiler +https://youtu.be/K6lO0uIU0Po "Крым будет украинским или безлюдным - Krym budet ukrainskim ili bezlyudnim - Crimea would be either Ukrainian or deserted". So you may understand their sentiment. Funny that you bring up clearly rigged elections. lol http://trv-science.ru/2009/10/statisticheskoe-issledovanie-rezultatov-rossijskix-vyborov-2007-2009-gg/https://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.0741.pdfhttps://www.intellinews.com/statistical-study-shows-half-the-votes-in-duma-election-were-probably-fake-221402/There's more of that but I can't be arsed. -actually the guy you brought here, Sergei Shpil'kin, had been caught on academic dishonesty. Here is a discussion of Shpilkin's analysis of Belorussian elections in 2020 by one of Russian top academic statistician, if you're interested: https://vk.com/avshklyaev?w=wall821751_5056/allBriefly, Shklyaev concludes that the paper is full of blunders, so the professional qualities of the author are questioned. I wouldn't say that Russian elections are particularly honest, rather the opposite imho; but the public PR-ing around this topic clearly also have their own agenda and cannot be trusted per se
lol
User was warned for this post
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United States41470 Posts
On October 13 2022 05:16 a_ch wrote:
I wouldn't say that Russian elections are particularly honest, rather the opposite imho; but the public PR-ing around this topic clearly also have their own agenda and cannot be trusted per se
I love this post because you have succinctly expressed exactly what years of Soviet media have ingrained within your national psyche. Early on the Soviets tried to paint the USSR as providing greater wealth and freedoms to its people than the capitalist west. Between the purges and the poverty this party line became increasingly difficult to sell. Soviet citizens understood that their government was lying to them.
And so there was a pivot, instead of trying to convince their people of lies they tried to destroy the idea of objective truth entirely. “Well of course our government is lying to us, all governments lie”. That way they could reconcile that they had less than the people in the west appeared to have without inferiority, the people in the west don’t actually have what the media shows they have. Our media may show us rich when we’re actually poor but everyone is actually poor so we’re no worse off.
And as the final step you get a Soviet attitude of superiority, our media may lie to us but they know we know that they’re lying so that makes them more honest than the west where the people actually believe the media. Its a pretty well documented phenomenon and I think you demonstrated it beautifully.
Your elections are rigged and you live in a fascist dictatorship (seriously, check the criteria) but when this is pointed out to you you happily concede the point while brushing aside the entire idea of fairness. You don’t even know you’re doing it, you’ve been trained to do this, your parents were trained to do it, it’s part of the way Russians think. The contradictions no longer even register in Russian brains because the idea of actual truth is missing.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 13 2022 05:18 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2022 04:45 Ardias wrote:
@Magic Powers - how did we come from comparing poverty rates in Russia and Ukraine to the assumption that there is no poor people in Russia? Did you not pay attention? The Russian people are much poorer than people in other countries. It's more than just a huge wealth gap, it's about people having to make a choice between food - not just healthy food, but any food - on the table or the dentist's bill. It's about people having to live with rats biting their feet at night. Such living standards are exceedingly rare in countries like the US, but in Russia you can find it in many places.
Dentist bill is free in Russia, though it may not be top-tier quality (had 5 of my teeth fixed that way few years ago, so I know what I'm talking about). Public medicine. If you want top-tier - then you pay the bill.
Rats are sometimes a problem, but it could be resolved if people living there care even a bit. Though we have enough alcoholics, junkies, or, sadly, elderly and/or mentally disabled people without support who could lead to sanitary fuckup, that's true, as well as a bunch of cases of negligence by responsible authorities, though latter could often be resolved via court or public attention if people actually do try. Though from personal experience I do know that a lot of people here (in Russia, I mean) like to complain and do nothing, not even participate in annual apartment owner meetings where they could actually solve their problems.
And no, discussion started from the point that Russian people are much poorer than Ukraininan ones and Putin's war goal was to make Ukrainians as poor as Russians. You were bringing 12,1% poverty rate for Russia and 2,5% for Ukraine, to which I pointed out that you take percentages from differen measurement points, like comparing feets to meters. You then simply started to stay that "Russians are very poor", abandoning the Ukraine point completely.
But to answer your latest big post - yes, there are quite a lot of Russian that are poor. Yet there are public stuff to ease it up (inheritance of damn communists with their free public education and medicine). No, the statistics doesn't give clear persperctive, because you seemed to entirely miss what I told about gray economy in Russia, and how it applies to Ukraine (probably even more, since they have less strict tax control).
On October 13 2022 05:15 maybenexttime wrote:
@Ardias
He asked how many legitimate elections in Russia had such high support for Putin. You gave him examples of blatantly rigged elections.
Where did he said anything about "legitimate" elections? His quote, I don't see the word "legitimate" anywhere:
"How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power?"
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United States41117 Posts
Lithuania to offer more weapons and hardware, as well as Winter Clothing to Ukraine.
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Since we are talking about this: Have the Russians actually found their winter uniforms at this point?
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On October 13 2022 05:47 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2022 05:18 Magic Powers wrote:On October 13 2022 04:45 Ardias wrote:
@Magic Powers - how did we come from comparing poverty rates in Russia and Ukraine to the assumption that there is no poor people in Russia? Did you not pay attention? The Russian people are much poorer than people in other countries. It's more than just a huge wealth gap, it's about people having to make a choice between food - not just healthy food, but any food - on the table or the dentist's bill. It's about people having to live with rats biting their feet at night. Such living standards are exceedingly rare in countries like the US, but in Russia you can find it in many places. Dentist bill is free in Russia, though it may not be top-tier quality (had 5 of my teeth fixed that way few years ago, so I know what I'm talking about). Public medicine. If you want top-tier - then you pay the bill. Rats are sometimes a problem, but it could be resolved if people living there care even a bit. Though we have enough alcoholics, junkies, or, sadly, elderly and/or mentally disabled people without support who could lead to sanitary fuckup, that's true, as well as a bunch of cases of negligence by responsible authorities, though latter could often be resolved via court or public attention if people actually do try. Though from personal experience I do know that a lot of people here (in Russia, I mean) like to complain and do nothing, not even participate in annual apartment owner meetings where they could actually solve their problems. And no, discussion started from the point that Russian people are much poorer than Ukraininan ones and Putin's war goal was to make Ukrainians as poor as Russians. You were bringing 12,1% poverty rate for Russia and 2,5% for Ukraine, to which I pointed out that you take percentages from differen measurement points, like comparing feets to meters. You then simply started to stay that "Russians are very poor", abandoning the Ukraine point completely. But to answer your latest big post - yes, there are quite a lot of Russian that are poor. Yet there are public stuff to ease it up (inheritance of damn communists with their free public education and medicine). No, the statistics doesn't give clear persperctive, because you seemed to entirely miss what I told about gray economy in Russia, and how it applies to Ukraine (probably even more, since they have less strict tax control). Show nested quote +On October 13 2022 05:15 maybenexttime wrote:
@Ardias
He asked how many legitimate elections in Russia had such high support for Putin. You gave him examples of blatantly rigged elections. Where did he said anything about "legitimate" elections? His quote, I don't see the word "legitimate" anywhere: "How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power?"
"Rats are sometimes a problem, but it could be resolved if people living there care even a bit." Ok, please tell me why I should argue with someone who is that ignorant of how poverty works? "Just care a bit"? Please give me the slightest incentive to take you seriously.
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Russian Federation592 Posts
On October 13 2022 05:59 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2022 05:47 Ardias wrote:On October 13 2022 05:18 Magic Powers wrote:On October 13 2022 04:45 Ardias wrote:
@Magic Powers - how did we come from comparing poverty rates in Russia and Ukraine to the assumption that there is no poor people in Russia? Did you not pay attention? The Russian people are much poorer than people in other countries. It's more than just a huge wealth gap, it's about people having to make a choice between food - not just healthy food, but any food - on the table or the dentist's bill. It's about people having to live with rats biting their feet at night. Such living standards are exceedingly rare in countries like the US, but in Russia you can find it in many places. Dentist bill is free in Russia, though it may not be top-tier quality (had 5 of my teeth fixed that way few years ago, so I know what I'm talking about). Public medicine. If you want top-tier - then you pay the bill. Rats are sometimes a problem, but it could be resolved if people living there care even a bit. Though we have enough alcoholics, junkies, or, sadly, elderly and/or mentally disabled people without support who could lead to sanitary fuckup, that's true, as well as a bunch of cases of negligence by responsible authorities, though latter could often be resolved via court or public attention if people actually do try. Though from personal experience I do know that a lot of people here (in Russia, I mean) like to complain and do nothing, not even participate in annual apartment owner meetings where they could actually solve their problems. And no, discussion started from the point that Russian people are much poorer than Ukraininan ones and Putin's war goal was to make Ukrainians as poor as Russians. You were bringing 12,1% poverty rate for Russia and 2,5% for Ukraine, to which I pointed out that you take percentages from differen measurement points, like comparing feets to meters. You then simply started to stay that "Russians are very poor", abandoning the Ukraine point completely. But to answer your latest big post - yes, there are quite a lot of Russian that are poor. Yet there are public stuff to ease it up (inheritance of damn communists with their free public education and medicine). No, the statistics doesn't give clear persperctive, because you seemed to entirely miss what I told about gray economy in Russia, and how it applies to Ukraine (probably even more, since they have less strict tax control). On October 13 2022 05:15 maybenexttime wrote:
@Ardias
He asked how many legitimate elections in Russia had such high support for Putin. You gave him examples of blatantly rigged elections. Where did he said anything about "legitimate" elections? His quote, I don't see the word "legitimate" anywhere: "How many of the Russian held votes in the last 10 years have been over 90%? From these referendums to anything directly involving Putin and his power?" "Rats are sometimes a problem, but it could be resolved if people living there care even a bit." Ok, please tell me why I should argue with someone who is that ignorant of how poverty works? "Just care a bit"? Please give me the slightest incentive to take you seriously.
Because I actually live here, because my grandmother and aunt live on their pensions in the wooden Soviet barrack in suburbs or Arkhangelsk, because my wife comes from remote village 400km from the city in the middle of nowhere, and my father-in-law and mother-in-law still live there. So I can clearly see when people talk about actual poverty issues, especially in Russia, and when they clearly don't know what they are talking about, to put it very mildly. Not knowing that dental care is free and available to everyone in Russia says a lot about your actual knowledge. You may google what "Obligatory Medical Insurance" in Russia is, for the start.
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@Ardias
Fair enough. As far as I can tell, the context was legitimacy of the elections - how believable such high support is. I'm pretty sure he was interested in legitimate elections but I could be wrong. Because what's the point of using blatantly rigged elections to show that such results can happen in fair elections.
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EPT
