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Jankisa
Croatia639 Posts
When it comes to corruption in general, yeah, every country has corruption, the big factor from my feeling for it as to how much and how all encompassing corruption is in a society is just like with every other crime, more poverty, more corruption. It's not a 100 % rule, of course, but in general it's a pretty good rule of thumb. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17257 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17257 Posts
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Jankisa
Croatia639 Posts
Now, Ukraine actually got some territory around Sumi back and is still pushing, and mind you, that was the area w here the main push for the offensive was planned and 50.000 troops amassed. BTW, how's Pokrovsk doing, it's been 1+ year of it being almost conquered it's weird how it's still standing, no? Regarding the Russian economy, I'll listen to Perun because I respect his analysis, but for far longer then I've been listening to pro-Russian narratives on how Pokrovsk is just about to fall I've been listening how Russia is: - out of tanks - out of rockets - out of armored personnel carriers - out of troops - out of production capacity - out of money - on the verge of collapse - cooling down - feeling the sanctions It's exhausting and I'll believe it when it actually happens and has a meaningful effect on the war, in the meantime it's all been BS. | ||
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0x64
Finland4555 Posts
On July 28 2025 17:36 Jankisa wrote: Interesting how our Serbian friend failed to respond to the people asking him questions about the narrative he was pushing how "there are no reports on the reality of Russian offensive being successful" and how we are all coping and talking about other stuff to distract from that. Now, Ukraine actually got some territory around Sumi back and is still pushing, and mind you, that was the area w here the main push for the offensive was planned and 50.000 troops amassed. BTW, how's Pokrovsk doing, it's been 1+ year of it being almost conquered it's weird how it's still standing, no? Regarding the Russian economy, I'll listen to Perun because I respect his analysis, but for far longer then I've been listening to pro-Russian narratives on how Pokrovsk is just about to fall I've been listening how Russia is: - out of tanks - out of rockets - out of armored personnel carriers - out of troops - out of production capacity - out of money - on the verge of collapse - cooling down - feeling the sanctions It's exhausting and I'll believe it when it actually happens and has a meaningful effect on the war, in the meantime it's all been BS. Hmmm, I remember the estimates for being out of tanks, being out of money, economic collapses etc, ranging from 2-3 years, which is the reason this topic is being brought again in the discussion. Tanks are running out, but the way this modern warfare is fought, seems to render them pretty useless (high value target, low return). Artillery seems to be the only classic advantage remaining. Russia, is not on the literal verge of collapse, it is just in the zone, where it is unclear how much russians are ready to lose for a war they don't care about, with people they never had any issues in the first place. Standing up to the Russian government, has made it clear that you will lose everything, so as long as Putin doesn't make people lose everything... You could see many people who started to be scared of losing everything, even the like of Prigozhin, Putin can pretty much handle anything one by one. | ||
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Jankisa
Croatia639 Posts
I guess many of the things basically came true, they are kind of out of APC's so they send their troops into combat on electric scooters and motocross bikes and even just bicycles. The missile thing, I guess, is the one that I really gave up on even paying attention to these kind of news, I had my hopes up, because all the articles went into how Russians can't really produce these sophisticated AA, cruise and other missiles because they lack the technology and it's all sanctioned and there's no way, only for them to have access to all of this via China, Iran and skirting sanctions by countries buying it for them and selling it to them. The whole thing does, in the end, become about money, because all of this does cost enormous amounts, and given the very low oil prices, constant hits from Ukraine on their rafnieries and depots and logistics it's bound to start cracking some time, and I really hope it's very soon, for the sake of our Ukrainian friends and the normal Russians. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9198 Posts
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Falling
Canada11350 Posts
On July 28 2025 22:42 Jankisa wrote: Don't get me wrong, I really, really hope that all of those predictions come true, but I've been burnt enough time that I am very jaded when I read this shit now. I guess many of the things basically came true, they are kind of out of APC's so they send their troops into combat on electric scooters and motocross bikes and even just bicycles. The missile thing, I guess, is the one that I really gave up on even paying attention to these kind of news, I had my hopes up, because all the articles went into how Russians can't really produce these sophisticated AA, cruise and other missiles because they lack the technology and it's all sanctioned and there's no way, only for them to have access to all of this via China, Iran and skirting sanctions by countries buying it for them and selling it to them. The whole thing does, in the end, become about money, because all of this does cost enormous amounts, and given the very low oil prices, constant hits from Ukraine on their rafnieries and depots and logistics it's bound to start cracking some time, and I really hope it's very soon, for the sake of our Ukrainian friends and the normal Russians. Well, I would separate some of those predictions because those aren't all claims made by the same people. As far as I know there's really only been an active countdown on tanks and APCs (with caveat being unless we see a large step up in Russian production), and as you say that has largely held true considering the alternatives being used. I can recall one video talking about how Russian would be burning through artillery barrels due to their heavy use but there hasn't been an active prediction for when or if they would run out. And any prediction would be confounded by North Korea's arms supply. Nonetheless, we have seen Russia's overwhelming ratio of artillery decrease substantially but I doubt they are going to run out. But I don't think the people like Perun have been predicting when Russia would run out of troops for instance. In the end, it's unlikely anything goes to zero exactly but the warmachine will instead make do with what it has even if it is less. I'm not sure what would cause a 1917 collapse but that would be the dream result however unlikely it seems at this point. | ||
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KwarK
United States42688 Posts
The something could be a substitution, missiles could run low and their role could be taken by something like long range drones. So the attacks would continue but not in the same way. It could be rationing, maybe they use 10% of their stocks each month so they never run dry but their usage steadily declines. It could be an area where they increase production. Maybe they’re using the reserves to buy time while they get production online. Or maybe they’ll get external resupply. Russia did consume all of its artillery shell stockpile, just as forecasted, but then NK opened up their arsenals. In any case you need to learn to read what the predictions are predicting. It’s not a countdown to peace, it’s a mathematical formula that states that one of the variables must change within a given time frame. | ||
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Jankisa
Croatia639 Posts
I think that if you are reasonably online you will get this, these kind of news articles get upvoted and shared all over reddit which is my main source of information and discussion when it comes to this war, along a few forums like these. I do commend the obviously impeccable media diets and reading comprehension abilities of you guys if you never get exposed to any of it. | ||
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pmp10
3321 Posts
Rational analysis exists even on youtube. These days it's even easy to find for lack of clickbait thumbnails. | ||
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Yurie
11836 Posts
On July 25 2025 21:16 Ser Galachad wrote: If Zelensky was as corrupt as some people seem to try to say, he would have just taken Putins money and handed Ukraine over to Russia. I'll wait with condemnations of corruption until the war is over. If Ukraine loses... well it doesn't matter because the new regime under Putin will be absurdely corrupt just like Russia is. If Russia falls apart and Ukraine is finally free then we can start putting pressure on them to fight corruption and become more like the west. Btw, not saying corruption doesn't exist in the west, it's just a different ball game compared to countries like Russia. I think Perun has been doing nice reporting here. Comparing loss rate to estimated restoration (plus what is actually there) and production rates to make a prediction. They have held up decently over time as well where you see "cutting edge" tanks produced and almost ww2 level tanks being reactivated for a while now. The section in the middle decreasing over time. But outside of IFV and tanks it is hard to track since losses tend to happen with worse reporting. | ||
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Jankisa
Croatia639 Posts
On July 29 2025 01:26 pmp10 wrote: Honestly that's a 'propaganda is propaganda' complaint. Rational analysis exists even on youtube. These days it's even easy to find for lack of clickbait thumbnails. I don't even think it's propaganda, it's just what gets clicks, at least in the west. I'm sure people I know who are in the opposite media bubble are reading and watching how Ukraine is going to fall apart, how they are forcing conscripts with no training to the front lines, running out of troops and how Zelenskyy is a dictator, it cuts both ways. As I believe I mentioned, I like Perun and watch basically every video, he doesn't do clickbait titles and is pretty rational, but as an example "Times radio" who has high level officials on constantly, for years keeps doing this, so it gets me pretty annoyed. | ||
zatic
Zurich15328 Posts
Interview with the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany. I find it interesting for how it show the dramatic change in relations between the two over the past 3 years. And for how well the current ambassador understands Germany, something that was not the case in past. | ||
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Yurie
11836 Posts
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