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Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again
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On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again
Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support.
You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war.
I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up.
The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict.
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On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict.
The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines.
Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory.
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I believe billiboy meant Marko Perković, aka "Thompson" who just had the biggest concert (by ticket sales) in History here in Croatia.
The guy is basically a war profiteer who bases his whole image on our war + being patriotic + God but also works with the criminals in power here and has had multiple law suits over not paying taxes, you know, like patriots do.
It's funny that Zeo the delusional is giving people shit about news sources (with sprinkled in trendy moronic words like AI slop because he thinks it makes him sound smart) while obviously eating up Russian propaganda how Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, I've read at least 20 headlines over the last year how Pokrovsk is basically conquered from nominally neutral news site in Croatia and it's still not even close.
After 11 years of attempts, 1 year of "full push" for it and tens of thousands of casualties Russians are still unable to take a town of 60k, but people are avoiding to talk about it because of mighty Russian summer offensive.
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On July 15 2025 17:55 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict. The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines. Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory.
Also true. Equipment suitable for frontal assaults is decreasing. Thus fighting at the front will decrease, while bombing keeps up. Doesn't mean Ukraine can push back the lines to where they want them for a forced peace on their terms.
Neither party will likely find acceptable terms and the conflicts freezes, as in the previous 2014 war.
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United States42653 Posts
On July 16 2025 00:14 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2025 17:55 Manit0u wrote:On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict. The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines. Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory. Also true. Equipment suitable for frontal assaults is decreasing. Thus fighting at the front will decrease, while bombing keeps up. Doesn't mean Ukraine can push back the lines to where they want them for a forced peace on their terms. Neither party will likely find acceptable terms and the conflicts freezes, as in the previous 2014 war.
Freezing doesn’t work for Russia, they need it to end one way or another. Ukraine is backed into a corner, they can’t stop resisting and so they will keep resisting. Russia as the aggressor has the disadvantage of choice, they can give up at any time. As prices increase, consumer goods stop being available, losses mount etc. people will ask why they are fighting. For Russia the price of giving up is low, for Ukraine it is everything.
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On July 15 2025 22:25 Jankisa wrote:
I believe billiboy meant Marko Perković, aka "Thompson" who just had the biggest concert (by ticket sales) in History here in Croatia.
The guy is basically a war profiteer who bases his whole image on our war + being patriotic + God but also works with the criminals in power here and has had multiple law suits over not paying taxes, you know, like patriots do.
It's funny that Zeo the delusional is giving people shit about news sources (with sprinkled in trendy moronic words like AI slop because he thinks it makes him sound smart) while obviously eating up Russian propaganda how Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, I've read at least 20 headlines over the last year how Pokrovsk is basically conquered from nominally neutral news site in Croatia and it's still not even close.
After 11 years of attempts, 1 year of "full push" for it and tens of thousands of casualties Russians are still unable to take a town of 60k, but people are avoiding to talk about it because of mighty Russian summer offensive.
That's the one, thanks for the correction.
On July 16 2025 00:22 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2025 00:14 Yurie wrote:On July 15 2025 17:55 Manit0u wrote:On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict. The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines. Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory. Also true. Equipment suitable for frontal assaults is decreasing. Thus fighting at the front will decrease, while bombing keeps up. Doesn't mean Ukraine can push back the lines to where they want them for a forced peace on their terms. Neither party will likely find acceptable terms and the conflicts freezes, as in the previous 2014 war. Freezing doesn’t work for Russia, they need it to end one way or another. Ukraine is backed into a corner, they can’t stop resisting and so they will keep resisting. Russia as the aggressor has the disadvantage of choice, they can give up at any time. As prices increase, consumer goods stop being available, losses mount etc. people will ask why they are fighting. For Russia the price of giving up is low, for Ukraine it is everything.
I think stoppinghte war is going to be very hard on the economy. You are going to have to integrate all these people back many that have serious injuries or mental health problems. Also, lots of them are going to have a fair bit of money and not a lot of goods to purchase, well the economy tries to move back to non wartime, or if they are planning more attacks (which seems likely) restocking so no much manpower or production capacity creating a lot of inflation. The skills a lot of people have gained along with questionable morality likely will also lead a lot of these people into organized crime style jobs. I do not know enough to make any specific claims, but it seems like a cluster fuck of problems waiting to happen.
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On July 16 2025 04:31 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2025 22:25 Jankisa wrote:
I believe billiboy meant Marko Perković, aka "Thompson" who just had the biggest concert (by ticket sales) in History here in Croatia.
The guy is basically a war profiteer who bases his whole image on our war + being patriotic + God but also works with the criminals in power here and has had multiple law suits over not paying taxes, you know, like patriots do.
It's funny that Zeo the delusional is giving people shit about news sources (with sprinkled in trendy moronic words like AI slop because he thinks it makes him sound smart) while obviously eating up Russian propaganda how Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, I've read at least 20 headlines over the last year how Pokrovsk is basically conquered from nominally neutral news site in Croatia and it's still not even close.
After 11 years of attempts, 1 year of "full push" for it and tens of thousands of casualties Russians are still unable to take a town of 60k, but people are avoiding to talk about it because of mighty Russian summer offensive. That's the one, thanks for the correction. Show nested quote +On July 16 2025 00:22 KwarK wrote:On July 16 2025 00:14 Yurie wrote:On July 15 2025 17:55 Manit0u wrote:On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict. The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines. Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory. Also true. Equipment suitable for frontal assaults is decreasing. Thus fighting at the front will decrease, while bombing keeps up. Doesn't mean Ukraine can push back the lines to where they want them for a forced peace on their terms. Neither party will likely find acceptable terms and the conflicts freezes, as in the previous 2014 war. Freezing doesn’t work for Russia, they need it to end one way or another. Ukraine is backed into a corner, they can’t stop resisting and so they will keep resisting. Russia as the aggressor has the disadvantage of choice, they can give up at any time. As prices increase, consumer goods stop being available, losses mount etc. people will ask why they are fighting. For Russia the price of giving up is low, for Ukraine it is everything. I think stoppinghte war is going to be very hard on the economy. You are going to have to integrate all these people back many that have serious injuries or mental health problems. Also, lots of them are going to have a fair bit of money and not a lot of goods to purchase, well the economy tries to move back to non wartime, or if they are planning more attacks (which seems likely) restocking so no much manpower or production capacity creating a lot of inflation. The skills a lot of people have gained along with questionable morality likely will also lead a lot of these people into organized crime style jobs. I do not know enough to make any specific claims, but it seems like a cluster fuck of problems waiting to happen.
You are dead on, and this problem isn't going to go away just because they keep going at war. It will only deepen the longer they continue. They are in the shits no matter what, generations of men either dead or completely fucked up from the war, mentally and physically, bringing all the problems home with them. This is going to take decades and decades to recover from, provided they stop now. Either that or Russia continues until failure, a year or two or three from now.
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I wonder what the difference between how Russia and Ukraine deal with these issues will be.
On one hand, from personal experience with my uncle who was a professional soldier in Yugoslavia before defecting to Croatian army in our war of independence I think that if you are fighting for a just cause, to defend your country you can come out of the war as a normal person.
On the other hand, if you are in the war as an invader, basically fighting for money (which I believe is most Russian soldiers, even tho I'm sure some of them buy the propaganda hook line and sinker) and you come home after seeing and doing fucked up shit, I'm not sure you can live a normal, happy life.
When it comes to economies, I doubt that Russia will have their allies like China and North Korea there to help them fix their economy, while Ukraine could, not entirely out of altruistic motivations but also because all of the European and American companies that will be happy to get lucrative contracts to help rebuild, which will in turn employ a lot of Ukrainians and help them build back up.
It might be me huffing hopium but I think long term Ukraine is in a much, much better position.
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Let's also not forget that Russia and Ukraine are not waging war the same way. The Russians constantly target civilians - from massacres like the one in Bucha, through attacks on hospitals, to the infamous human safari in Kherson. They torture most Ukrainian PoWs and execute both Ukrainians and their own frequently. Their commanders have no respect for the lives of their soldiers whatsoever, sending them on suicidal missions all the time.
The Ukrainians don't do any of that, outside of some isolated incidents.
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On July 16 2025 04:31 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2025 22:25 Jankisa wrote:
I believe billiboy meant Marko Perković, aka "Thompson" who just had the biggest concert (by ticket sales) in History here in Croatia.
The guy is basically a war profiteer who bases his whole image on our war + being patriotic + God but also works with the criminals in power here and has had multiple law suits over not paying taxes, you know, like patriots do.
It's funny that Zeo the delusional is giving people shit about news sources (with sprinkled in trendy moronic words like AI slop because he thinks it makes him sound smart) while obviously eating up Russian propaganda how Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, I've read at least 20 headlines over the last year how Pokrovsk is basically conquered from nominally neutral news site in Croatia and it's still not even close.
After 11 years of attempts, 1 year of "full push" for it and tens of thousands of casualties Russians are still unable to take a town of 60k, but people are avoiding to talk about it because of mighty Russian summer offensive. That's the one, thanks for the correction. Show nested quote +On July 16 2025 00:22 KwarK wrote:On July 16 2025 00:14 Yurie wrote:On July 15 2025 17:55 Manit0u wrote:On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict. The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines. Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory. Also true. Equipment suitable for frontal assaults is decreasing. Thus fighting at the front will decrease, while bombing keeps up. Doesn't mean Ukraine can push back the lines to where they want them for a forced peace on their terms. Neither party will likely find acceptable terms and the conflicts freezes, as in the previous 2014 war. Freezing doesn’t work for Russia, they need it to end one way or another. Ukraine is backed into a corner, they can’t stop resisting and so they will keep resisting. Russia as the aggressor has the disadvantage of choice, they can give up at any time. As prices increase, consumer goods stop being available, losses mount etc. people will ask why they are fighting. For Russia the price of giving up is low, for Ukraine it is everything. I think stoppinghte war is going to be very hard on the economy. You are going to have to integrate all these people back many that have serious injuries or mental health problems. Also, lots of them are going to have a fair bit of money and not a lot of goods to purchase, well the economy tries to move back to non wartime, or if they are planning more attacks (which seems likely) restocking so no much manpower or production capacity creating a lot of inflation. The skills a lot of people have gained along with questionable morality likely will also lead a lot of these people into organized crime style jobs. I do not know enough to make any specific claims, but it seems like a cluster fuck of problems waiting to happen.
What's the difference between stopping the war now and winning the war down the line for Russia? Same problems with the only difference beeing a victory parade.
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On July 17 2025 20:08 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2025 04:31 Billyboy wrote:On July 15 2025 22:25 Jankisa wrote:
I believe billiboy meant Marko Perković, aka "Thompson" who just had the biggest concert (by ticket sales) in History here in Croatia.
The guy is basically a war profiteer who bases his whole image on our war + being patriotic + God but also works with the criminals in power here and has had multiple law suits over not paying taxes, you know, like patriots do.
It's funny that Zeo the delusional is giving people shit about news sources (with sprinkled in trendy moronic words like AI slop because he thinks it makes him sound smart) while obviously eating up Russian propaganda how Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, I've read at least 20 headlines over the last year how Pokrovsk is basically conquered from nominally neutral news site in Croatia and it's still not even close.
After 11 years of attempts, 1 year of "full push" for it and tens of thousands of casualties Russians are still unable to take a town of 60k, but people are avoiding to talk about it because of mighty Russian summer offensive. That's the one, thanks for the correction. On July 16 2025 00:22 KwarK wrote:On July 16 2025 00:14 Yurie wrote:On July 15 2025 17:55 Manit0u wrote:On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict. The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines. Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory. Also true. Equipment suitable for frontal assaults is decreasing. Thus fighting at the front will decrease, while bombing keeps up. Doesn't mean Ukraine can push back the lines to where they want them for a forced peace on their terms. Neither party will likely find acceptable terms and the conflicts freezes, as in the previous 2014 war. Freezing doesn’t work for Russia, they need it to end one way or another. Ukraine is backed into a corner, they can’t stop resisting and so they will keep resisting. Russia as the aggressor has the disadvantage of choice, they can give up at any time. As prices increase, consumer goods stop being available, losses mount etc. people will ask why they are fighting. For Russia the price of giving up is low, for Ukraine it is everything. I think stoppinghte war is going to be very hard on the economy. You are going to have to integrate all these people back many that have serious injuries or mental health problems. Also, lots of them are going to have a fair bit of money and not a lot of goods to purchase, well the economy tries to move back to non wartime, or if they are planning more attacks (which seems likely) restocking so no much manpower or production capacity creating a lot of inflation. The skills a lot of people have gained along with questionable morality likely will also lead a lot of these people into organized crime style jobs. I do not know enough to make any specific claims, but it seems like a cluster fuck of problems waiting to happen. What's the difference between stopping the war now and winning the war down the line for Russia? Same problems with the only difference beeing a victory parade.
If you're losing 50 dollars a day on gambling, what is the difference between stopping now and stopping in 2 years? I'll even throw in a celebration for you
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So my question a few pages ago if US stopped aid or if they just wanted to be paid for it has been answered? It is fine as long as somebody else pays.
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Trump claimed the US will send weapons and Euros are going to pay for it. Merz said he wants to buy Patriots for Ukraine. Macron is supposedly trying to limit spending European funds on non-European weapons.
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On July 17 2025 20:08 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2025 04:31 Billyboy wrote:On July 15 2025 22:25 Jankisa wrote:
I believe billiboy meant Marko Perković, aka "Thompson" who just had the biggest concert (by ticket sales) in History here in Croatia.
The guy is basically a war profiteer who bases his whole image on our war + being patriotic + God but also works with the criminals in power here and has had multiple law suits over not paying taxes, you know, like patriots do.
It's funny that Zeo the delusional is giving people shit about news sources (with sprinkled in trendy moronic words like AI slop because he thinks it makes him sound smart) while obviously eating up Russian propaganda how Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, I've read at least 20 headlines over the last year how Pokrovsk is basically conquered from nominally neutral news site in Croatia and it's still not even close.
After 11 years of attempts, 1 year of "full push" for it and tens of thousands of casualties Russians are still unable to take a town of 60k, but people are avoiding to talk about it because of mighty Russian summer offensive. That's the one, thanks for the correction. On July 16 2025 00:22 KwarK wrote:On July 16 2025 00:14 Yurie wrote:On July 15 2025 17:55 Manit0u wrote:On July 15 2025 06:43 Yurie wrote:On July 14 2025 19:57 Excludos wrote:
Yeah, pretty much nothing of note is going on on the frontlines, other than, of course, that thousands of people are being wounded every day for extremely little movement. If Zeo thinks Russia is going to win by taking ground, I guess see you back in 200 years when they reach Kyiv.
What IS happening is that Russia is in deep shit with their economy. This is provable in a number of ways, including Russia itself admiting it. But anything negative coming out of Russia means Zeo will stick his head in the ground and pretend he doesn't hear it, only to pop up a few months later spewing the same bullshit all over again Well the war is an interesting stage. It costs Russia a massive amount of money each day and will continue costing when it ends to transition people to other jobs when you scale down the military production. Or they do WW2 again and find another war or dump people somewhere without support. You can run a war for a long time on poor finances though. Russia is burning a year of future economy per quarter of war, or something similar to that. It keeps getting worse but you can do it for a long time. I honestly don't think the economics will be what breaks the war. Sanctions hurt but many of the worst ones that could be inflicted are not being done thus Russia can limp along in the war. I honestly don't think Russian economy will crash hard enough to stop war effort in the next 2 years. I think it will actually get more output for the war machine during that time period, at least for drones and other things they have managed to scale up. The major problem is more on finding volunteers for the army that is in good enough physical shape and with enough training to keep an offensive war going. I think we will see the war slow down even more. Russia launching massive waves of missiles/drones at civilians and at the Ukrainian lines. With fewer and fewer offensives on the ground without leveling things first due to a lack of capacity in that area and a loss of will in taking the losses required for it. Which kind of leads to a stalemate until something gives, most likely the Russian will to continue with limited gains. A frozen conflict. The problem with the whole Russian war doctrine is that it's unsustainable in the long run. So far they could continue by digging into huge Soviet stockpiles of equipment but this well has almost completely dried out. Despite switching to war economy and scaling up production they're unable to keep up with equipment losses any longer, that's why we see reports of Russian troops utilizing worse and worse equipment as the war goes on. Even if they manage to draft more men it's not of much benefit if they can't equip them or provide them with means of reaching the front lines. Unless Russia will be able to somehow reshape its whole military and switch to a completely new doctrine (more drone based for example) I don't think they have much gas left in the tank. There were reports coming out last year that showed signs of Russia not planning on prolonging the war past 2025 (they probably won't have enough resources to go past that but only time will tell). This would also align with Putin's latest announcement that they plan to take the Donbas in the next 2 months (highly unlikely), which would let them reach a point where they could potentially consolidate and call it quits with at least something to show for it. Even if they did that though, right now I don't think Ukraine would be interested in doing any form of peace where they have to cede their territory. Also true. Equipment suitable for frontal assaults is decreasing. Thus fighting at the front will decrease, while bombing keeps up. Doesn't mean Ukraine can push back the lines to where they want them for a forced peace on their terms. Neither party will likely find acceptable terms and the conflicts freezes, as in the previous 2014 war. Freezing doesn’t work for Russia, they need it to end one way or another. Ukraine is backed into a corner, they can’t stop resisting and so they will keep resisting. Russia as the aggressor has the disadvantage of choice, they can give up at any time. As prices increase, consumer goods stop being available, losses mount etc. people will ask why they are fighting. For Russia the price of giving up is low, for Ukraine it is everything. I think stoppinghte war is going to be very hard on the economy. You are going to have to integrate all these people back many that have serious injuries or mental health problems. Also, lots of them are going to have a fair bit of money and not a lot of goods to purchase, well the economy tries to move back to non wartime, or if they are planning more attacks (which seems likely) restocking so no much manpower or production capacity creating a lot of inflation. The skills a lot of people have gained along with questionable morality likely will also lead a lot of these people into organized crime style jobs. I do not know enough to make any specific claims, but it seems like a cluster fuck of problems waiting to happen. What's the difference between stopping the war now and winning the war down the line for Russia? Same problems with the only difference beeing a victory parade.
They would have many of the same problems, but they would control all of the natural resources of Ukraine. And more importantly the Putin is a strongman and Russia is the most powerful nation in the world myth could continue to be spouted.
But really it is a frying pan and fire situation. Continuing is awful for Russia, stopping is also (short term) awful for Russia. And those in control short term means life or death.
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On July 18 2025 02:44 Yurie wrote:
So my question a few pages ago if US stopped aid or if they just wanted to be paid for it has been answered? It is fine as long as somebody else pays.
Sortof but not really. Everyone else just went "wtf? We didn't agree to this!". Other than Denmark who enthusiastically embraced it I suppose
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Something else to note, spending on materiel that goes to Ukraine to combat Russia counts towards the 3.5% GDP NATO target that was agreed on recently.
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EPT
